← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
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- [00:00]
Zena Keda
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- [02:01]
Mark Schindler
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- [03:39]
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- [05:15]
For the Athletic I'm Zena Caida and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. Oh, welcome to the Athletic Women's Basketball show where we are here to talk all things women's hoops, whether You're a die hard fan that eats, sleeps and breathes the game or you're a casual fan trying to figure out why is Selection Sunday taking so long to arrive. Don't worry, you're in the right spot. Make sure to subscribe to this pod wherever you get your pods to stay up to date with us as well as subscribe to the Athletic so you don't miss out on year round in depth coverage of the game you love. Of course, Selection Sunday is right around the corner finally. And so to continue to get you guys all ready for the big dance to come. Joining me here today is basketball writer Mark Schindler. I know you've been watching our Athletic online and seeing his content. He is known for his bracket watch and his bubble watch series for the Athletic and he is a whiz at bracketology. I don't do my bracket without talking or reading Mark first. So I'm excited to get his thoughts and insights on all things to look out for in this upcoming women's tournament. Mark, welcome back to the show. Happy to have you here.
- [06:36]
Appreciate the intros. You know, it's actually kind of funny. I was talking to Shannon, our editor, and the other day she's like, you know, I was talking to a group of students and your name came up and I said, yeah, Mark knows a disturbing amount about fasting. You know what, I think that's a, that's a good way to put it, especially with where we're at this time of year. A lot to, to keep watching. I mean, I was on the phone talking with a friend yesterday while watching Montana, Montana state at like 4:00 Eastern. Wow, that's, that's, that's the vibe we're in. That's what we have right now.
- [07:05]
You know, I love that for you. Disturbing amount is complimentary.
- [07:11]
I think that's Shannon made sure I knew was complimentary.
- [07:14]
There you go. There you go. I absolutely love that. Well, I'm excited for you to share your disturbing amount of knowledge because we all need it. And I know there's some folks that may have remembered you from last year being on the pod, breaking things down right before the dance. And then there's new folks that have joined us on the show. And so it never hurts to get a little bit of a background, a little refresh. So you're our expert and as I mentioned, some listeners are experts. And then there's some people that really want to get the gist of March Madness, but not necessarily all the little gritty details. So let's do a primer for folks. Just a little one. Give us the basics. Okay. I want to know how many teams are going to be in the tournament, who is determining what, you know, what teams make it, and also where are they playing and how do we get to the Final Four?
- [08:02]
Yeah, so first off, we're going to have 68 teams technically in the tournament. Obviously there's the, the first four. That's going to happen with, you know, the, the play in teams essentially for the 16 seeds and 11 seeds on certain parts of the bracket. So technically 68 will be in the field. What goes into determining that? Obviously, we have the automatic bids. So every single conference in Division 1, if you win your conference tournament, you get an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. And the remaining bids are all at large bids. As far as where they'll be playing. Everybody's going to start off. So you always hear host teams, you know, this team's going to host in March or this team's trying to host in March. Those are all of the teams on the top four seed lines. So we have 16 teams that will host the opening rounds of March Madness, which means they'll have the first weekend. So the first and second round will take place within those areas of the bracket. So like, let's say right now I have, you know, NC State is a three seed, and so they'll host two games in Raleigh. Same thing with, you know, all the teams in the top four lines, obviously. And then from there it'll break down to, you know, the first Final Four regions. So the, that next weekend will obviously be in Spokane and Birmingham, which is how it splits off. And then everything will culminate in the Final Four in Tampa this, gosh, April, which is somehow very close.
- [09:25]
It's insane. That is crazy. It's like right around the corner. So teams that host get to host the first two games in their respective arena. And then it gets into Spokane, Birmingham, and then it gets to Tampa. And there is a group of people that are determining this, that are responsible for determining who's hosting and also who gets those at large bids. The selection committee. Correct. Like who's a part of that?
- [09:49]
Yeah, so the NCAA selection committee is made up of admins, athletic directors, you know, people in and around the game who are all from, you know, obviously all are, are part of schools that are for the most part in this. Obviously I do want to just put out first and foremost, like there are rules set in place to make it so that people can't vote for their own schools. And it removes a lot of the bias from it. So I think like people automatically go to that. That's not a thing. So point being, it's like a, essentially just an advisory committee that is tasked with having an in depth understanding, knowledge and ability to, to build out the bracket. And they do it throughout the year. It's not just something that they do. You know, this final weekend is something like obviously we have the two top 16 reveals through ESPN during March and February showcasing, you know, how they have the top 16 so far and everything is built out there on that. And there's also like just kind of like more little known thing. There's a regional coaching committees that play a factor in like you know, giving advisory support to the selection committee as well. So there's, there's a lot of like safeguards and layers that kind of go into how everything gets evaluated and looked at.
- [10:58]
Interesting. I don't think I knew about the regional coaching, the support to the support essentially and making this decision. That's really cool. And it also just shows us the complexity of making this decision. Oftentimes there's the factors of, you know, what type of wins do you have, what type of quad one wins. And I'm going to have to ask you to ask, tell us what that means. But then also net rankings. And that's probably the most like elusive topic within this whole thing of how the selection committee makes its decisions. What are all the factors and if you can explain quad one wins and net rankings and what that looks like.
- [11:32]
Yeah. So to start off with all the factors because I think that's the most important, like obviously the net is important. We'll get into that in a minute. But I do think sometimes it gets oversimplified and also overextended for how important it is. So the committee is going to look at, you know, obviously a multitude of things. I think one of the most important which we're going to see play a big factor this Sunday is who's peaking right now, who is playing their best basketball right now. What have your last two to three weeks looked like? Did you go out early in the conference tournament? I think that was something that for me, like doing the bracket for the first time last year, that was a really big learning curve was understanding how much weight they put on what you're doing right now. Obviously you know your entire resume is going to play a very big part. I don't want to undersell that. But you know, if there are two teams that are relatively close, even if one team might Have a quote, unquote, slightly better resume. If they went, you know, 2 and 4 to close the season and lost early in the conference tournament, maybe there was an upset loss in there and the other team went 5 and 1 and went to the championship game, maybe ended up losing, that team's going to get more, probably leeway to rank higher, to be rated higher. Because right now what they're doing is, I would almost say, like, looking at the way that everything is bracketed out and quote, unquote, the seedless. So, like, how you kind of rank teams out, it's almost like a kind of, like, ranking out who's got the most juice to be a champion in a way. Like, it's all about competitiveness and competitive balance when you're trying to put everything together. So it's really who is the best, who has the best resume while also playing the best basketball when we're building the bracket.
- [13:07]
Sure. It's so funny because obviously, for those of you listening that know I cover women's basketball, but I also cover men's basketball, particularly the NBA. It's completely opposite in the NBA. Like, it is fully based off of, like, your record. It'd be so interesting if, like, that was the case around sports in hockey and football and anything of, like, who's doing the best right now. I feel like the selection committee for College Football Playoff kind of does that as well and trying to make sure that they have a competitive championship bracket in terms of the teams that are going up against each other. Okay, fascinating. Okay, so these are the factors that are going into a seed, and then not only is it just, how are you doing right now? There's other factors implicated in that as well.
- [13:49]
Yeah, absolutely. Like, and I think we can talk about the net right away with that, because the net, I don't have access to, like, the full equation for it, but essentially, net rankings, it can be used in evaluation, and the committee certainly uses it to ascribe value to teams at times. But for the most part, I would just say it's an observation tool. Like, it's used to sort things to. To give you a foundation and framework for how to kind of go about ranking things and comparing teams and looking at them. Because I understand that the net can be a source of frustration for fans and programs. But also I just think it's important to note when we have 362 teams, if you do not have something that is giving you that framework and foundation to start off with, and it's going to be a complete crapshoot and actually putting everything together and I think more teams would be hurt without it. But everything that goes into the net and just in general, that kind of emanates from that, like strength of schedule. Big part of that, obviously. I think though, the most important part of the net, in my opinion, having tracked, you know, I spend all my time looking at how teams are moving in the net, how things get impacted. Marginal loss and margin of victory is probably the single biggest impact around that ranking. So you look at a team like Kansas State, who, despite playing a relatively weak non conference schedule compared to, you know, other teams in the top 16 of the net, so they finished with the 132nd non conference strength schedule, 63rd strength schedule overall. They blew out their competition.
- [15:14]
I was going to say they were beating up on teams.
- [15:16]
Yeah, I mean they were, they were beating teams by 20, 30 points outside of their one loss to Duke.
- [15:20]
Yeah.
- [15:21]
So whenever they lost the game, at least early in the year before they dealt with injuries, it was close. Every time they won a game, it was, you know, a massive win. So think of it almost like net ranking efficiency just in, you know, looking at, you know, team efficiency, again, like so much of it is if you have an overwhelming number in your favor, that gives you a ton, but if you also have that overwhelming number against you, that's going to lower you a ton. So like a team, like just for another example, Louisville, I think that they have honestly been a team that's probably a little bit better than their net ranking. They're 35th in the net right now, but they had some of their losses were extremely lopsided. So like they lost to UConn really bad. They lost NC State really bad. And that kind of colored the rest of their season because when you have that get stacked on you early on in the year, it's really hard to overcome unless, you know, in turn or blowing out teams yourself. So that's a really big part of it. Another aspect of it, you know, where are you beating teams? That's, you know, something we can talk about with quad rankings as well. Like now this is the first year that the women's basketball tournament has used quad. Quad rankings and quad rankings essentially, like, say, like, okay, well, it ascribes value to the kind of game you're playing in. So for reference, like we'll pull up Louisville's schedule right now. So for a quad one is again ascribing value to the game you played. So when they played UConn, who's number one in the net ranking they played Yukon on a neutral floor, and that's easily a quality game. So any quad one game is playing a top 25 team in the net on your home court, playing a top 35 team on a neutral court, or playing a top 45 team in the net on an away court. And then it kind of trickles down from there for the other quadrants. So, again, it's just like, kind of interesting ascribing value to the kind of game you're playing. I do want to also note, like, the quads in women's basketball are set up differently than in men's basketball, so there isn't really a cross comparison there for that.
- [17:15]
Which one's harder?
- [17:16]
I'll be honest. I haven't spent enough time looking at the men's bracket to know, but the site that I used, I believe used the men's last year from the women's side, and it was like, it gave you a lot more quadrunt wins than it does this year. So I think it's. It's probably a little bit harder in this one.
- [17:29]
Little stricter on the women's side. I like it. I like it. So you just mentioned, you know, Louisville is 35th in that ranking. The layperson might think, okay, 35th in that ranking. They'll be 35th seed overall. Right. Like, you would think that it can translate that easily. But seating isn't that simple. You mentioned also that you have NC State in the third seed. Right. I guess, overall, I'm assuming is what you meant.
- [17:55]
Or no, on, like, the third line. So they. I have the.
- [17:57]
On the third line in their brackets overall.
- [17:59]
Mark Schindler
Yeah.
- [17:59]
Unknown
Okay. I was like, wow, A lot of faith. A lot of faith. But overall, like, it doesn't seem to translate easily into seating. So, like, help us understand what seating looks like per. The brackets and, you know, on the lines and the implications overall. Because there's aspects of hosting, obviously, based off what your seat is, but then there's also, like, when you're closely seated versus higher seated, like, what are the implications of your placement within the bracket?
- [18:27]
Yeah, I think when you're building out the seeds in general, like, it's, again, kind of like we talked about. I think so much of it is overall competitiveness plus resume when you're building everything out. And I think that's exactly what you said. I think it gets tougher because, again, the net is an evaluation tool. Or observational tool is a better way to put it in. Evaluation tool. It's a little bit of both. But, like, again, let's Take for instance West Virginia, who's 11th in the net. I have a seven seed in the tournament right now. So like for reference, Instead of being 11th ranked, I had them like 27th over on the bracket between Vanderbilt and California. The issue is you pull a team like them and as much as like. And this is where it gets dicey because I think even you could look at a team like West Virginia and you could look at their resume and find a way to see them lower than some of the teams I have on the eight or nine seed. But when I'm going through and looking at a team so I pull up West Virginia, I'm looking at how strong of a schedule did you play? They play the 200.
- [19:20]
Let's go through this exercise with West Virginia. Let's look at their schedule. Let's look at their. Yeah, I love this.
- [19:24]
So West Virginia played the 208th ranked non conference schedule. Not strong. They had one really big marquee game in non con. They played Texas, which was a big game obviously. And they played them really well. They played, they lost by five. It was a very close game. And again, so like we've talked about, that's where if they lost by 15, that's why they would end up being like around 20th in that ranking or lower because of how that ends up stacking up. So I think that's one thing automatically, like I'm factoring to myself knowing like Texas is going to be a 1 seed in this tournament. They played really well against the best team they played all year. They obviously ended up losing. But I think that factors in when noting like, okay, this team, they only played seven Quad one games. And for reference, like pretty much Everybody in the SEC in Big Ten played 12 to 15. So it's a really big discrepancy comparing, you know, the level of game played relatively in the Big 12 to what it was in the other power conferences. So you also pull up what West Virginia has and they quote unquote, didn't really have any bad losses. They only had. They had two quads who losses. They didn't lose anything lower than that. And the good thing for them is that they like avenged their losses in a way. Like they lost to Oklahoma State early on in the year in Big 12 play and then they beat up on Oklahoma State a couple of weeks later at the beginning of February.
- [20:39]
Wow.
- [20:39]
Yeah. Yeah.
- [20:40]
This stuff matters.
- [20:41]
Yeah, exactly. I think the tougher thing for them was that they didn't necessarily have any wins that were like crazy standout. So they didn't beat Baylor this year. They didn't beat tcu. They did end up beating Kansas State in both the regular season and in the conference tournament, but also noting that Aoka Lee didn't play neither of those games. So it's like, there's an element of just, you know, how do you kind of weigh some of that stuff? I think, again, this is very clearly a good team, but it's when you're trying to stack up. All right, well, what does their resume actually mean? What all have they done? Like, I think it's tough because you compare them to a team like a Maryland, like Maryland's 28th in the net because of some of the stuff that we've talked about. But they went 8 and 5 in quad one games. They played a much harder strength of schedule. They have better, bigger wins. It's just like, I can look and find a way to say West Virginia might be a better team, but I don't think there's a way to evaluate that and put that into the bracket. So that's kind of the stuff that you're trying to analyze and look at, you know, as you're parsing through these.
- [21:40]
Things, it's so fascinating. Like, there is a level of objectivity to it because you do have to look at schedules, you do have to look at numbers of results. Like, what were the points differentials? You know, what were the margins and wins or losses? Like, there is some level of objectivity to it, but then there is also a level of subjectivity to how someone evaluates an opponent that they might have won or lost to, or how someone evaluates an opponent at that period of time of the season. A team that may not have had their star center, like an Aoka Lee in Kansas State, or a team that may have not had their star player of some sort playing to the same degree that they were earlier in the season. Like, there is some level to. Well, you know, like, in the way that you evaluate this. And that's why putting these teams into brackets and seeding them is such a hard exercise, because of this work between the objective numbers and then also the subjectivity of how you evaluate the teams that produce these numbers and the teams they played against in which they produce these numbers. So, okay, I do feel like I have a better feeling for seating the bracket also how the tournament is laid out. And that's important. We needed the basics because it gets even more complicated than this when you start talking about actually choosing, you know, teams that are going to end up in that Play in portion, which we call the first four of the tournament. And then also how we start talking about the actual bracket, which we'll get into next week. Let's go ahead and talk about those first fours, the bubble watch, as we call it. Bubble watch. Someone's on the bubble. This has been interlaced throughout all of your articles this year on bracketology. So let's just start with bubble watch and define it for us. What does it mean when you use this phrase?
- [23:28]
Yeah, so think of it like almost like an accordion when you're building out a bracket. That sounds like an odd way to put it, but like, you have.
- [23:36]
Here we go.
- [23:37]
You have.
- [23:37]
Not what I was expecting, but stretched out like that.
- [23:39]
Right.
- [23:40]
Okay. Okay.
- [23:41]
All of the automatic bids, for the most part, there will be a couple of conferences that are going to have automatic bids. Like, obviously all the power teams, their automatic bids are going to be in that top frame. But you're building it almost like kind of like a snake draft in a way. Like an S curve is the proper way to put it, but you're building it like simultaneously, bottom to top. Sure. And that little middle sandwich part that has like the most friction and like the most stretched out part, that's the bubble. And that as all of the bids fill up, you get the, you know, obviously those top end teams and then all of the smaller conferences are having their tournaments right now and filling up the auto bids. That's where you see, like the bits start to disappear. And then you have that smaller part where you're. You have like way more teams that can actually fit in there.
- [24:28]
Right.
- [24:29]
And you're trying to figure out that's the bubble, because the quote unquote, the bubble can pop, which we talk. We'll talk about in a second with the Atlantic 10. But point being, like, this year I think there are a lot of teams that have quote unquote cases, but legitimate cases. There's probably like six or seven teams in the bubble that are all going to be kind of fighting for that, those final couple spots. Because this year, to me, like last year, I think there was a lot more competition for those final spots. I think, like, it's tough because a lot of teams that were right at the top of the bubble did enough to solidify where they're at and probably shouldn't be in danger. But then a lot of the teams that were really in the middle, in the thick of things with the bubble stumbled a little bit towards the end. And then there's also a couple of teams that Just have room to still make something happen before things end. But I don't know if that was the most helpful analogy. That's how I just kind of picture it in my head.
- [25:16]
Trust me, that is one of the coolest, coolest visuals. I've never thought of that from an accordion perspective, but you're absolutely right. Especially when you think about also stretching them out. It feels like the ends are the easiest to stretch out, but it isn't until you have it fully expanded that things get a little bit tough and things get a little bit more difficult. So amazing analogy. And yeah, I love the way your mind works with all of that disturbing knowledge. And I'm really happy that you said there's six to seven teams that are fighting for those last bids because that's going to be my next question. Who are some of those teams that you're watching closely in this bubble space?
- [25:51]
Yeah, I think redoing the bracket again last night, of course you did. Well, I just, I wanted to look at things again.
- [25:58]
Sure.
- [25:58]
Like, I do want to make clear, like I am always running it and like having it ready to go. I just, like last night I decided, okay, let me sit down and objectively just like redo it and see what it looks like. It's interesting. Like, I think some teams that solidify themselves that I think are not out of it, still quote unquote in the bubble, but I think should be safe from just not making the tournament at all. Washington, a team that was in the bubble pretty much the entire year, they had a really good close to the season after they implemented new offense this year, had some new changes. It took some time for them to click, but then they closed the year really strong. They look good in the Big Ten tournament. I think they'd be really hard to keep out, especially like they added a quad run win. And the difficult part for the other teams in the tournament, like, like you pull a Virginia Tech who they had kind of the opposite. They had a rough close to the year. They lost to Boston College and Stanford in about a week apart. And those are two games that they really couldn't afford to lose. Obviously they picked up some good ones to pick up a win against Cal, which was. Was meaningful, but I think in some ways losing games to. I believe those ended up being quad three against Boston College, Stanford, I don't believe so. But point being, like doing that and then losing in the ACC tournament, they lost by 15 in their game. It didn't leave a great taste in the mouth for when you're Trying to kind of close things up at the end. I think, like, again, Washington and Virginia Tech were in very similar situations for most of the year, not quite having enough to put them over the top. I think Washington did enough to close the year to get in. Virginia Tech left themselves kind of open to being out, and I think they probably will end up being out because of that. Like, you look at too. Like, I think pretty much the top three teams in the Ivy League are all in the bubble for me right now. Like, okay, Harvard has been really good. Obviously they had a really great start to the year. They've lost both games to Princeton. This year they play Princeton again in the Ivy semifinals for Ivy Madness. And I think they really need to win that game to get in to the NCAA tournament. I wouldn't rule them out completely, but I think again, with what happened in the A10, which we'll talk about, it's really difficult to, to put all three teams from the Ivy in because we lost one of those at large spots. You can kind up and down like James Madison, Middle of Tennessee, who might not end up winning the Conference USA this year. They just split the regular season with Liberty, so they have to win out in their tournament to get in. St. Joseph's Colorado, Arizona, these are all teams that are like there. But I think it would be, it's going to be tougher for them to get in because of what their overall resume is and how they finish the year.
- [28:25]
Okay, all right. Now you, you said a lot of things that I'm going to have to double back on, especially with like, losing bids and the A10. We're going to talk about this in a second, but before we even get into that, with all of these bubble teams, is it that the bubble teams now have the chance to play in the first four? Like, how does that work? Like, what are you envisioning for the first four?
- [28:45]
Yeah, for the bubble teams, it's mostly going to be like, do they end up making it to a number 10 seed and not having to play in the first four? Do some of them maybe get flexed to the number 8 or 9 seed? Which I actually think that could happen because here's an interesting part with the bracket that's worth noting. So I think we're going to see a couple teams on the number 8 and 9 line. So those teams that would play, you know, the number one seeds in the next round, I think it's pretty. I don't want to say it's for certain. I would bet on the Big Ten in SEC having all of the number one seeds. If I had to right now, that's what I would say. So when you think of it like that, okay, you can't have in the tournament. Well, it's technically you can work around it, but for the most part it just should never happen where you play a same conference opponent as the number one seed the next game. Like that should never happen in the second round. So you have to avoid having any games where, let's say, okay, UCLA, they win their first round game, they play the 8, 9 seed. Okay, well, you can't have anybody from the Big Ten in that 8, 9 seed. Same thing with the SEC. Okay, if, if South Carolina has that second number one overall seed, they can't play anybody from the SEC in the next round. So you can't even put somebody from the SEC in those games.
- [29:53]
And that's what may cause someone to get flexed up or down.
- [29:55]
Yeah. So like, I think a team like Richmond, who I have in as a large team, like, I think they probably end up being a number eight or nine seed because it gives you a little bit more flexibility with how you put teams in. And they are like good enough to be that in my opinion. But it's just like even them, like a South Dakota State, who they won their conference tournament, they're very good and I think they're a team that would have made it if they had lost the Summit League. But like, again, that's another team where I think they might get flexed up to a number eight or number nine. Because instead of like, all right, teams like Indiana, Oregon, Mississippi State, like all these teams that could and probably have a really good opportunity to be in the number 8, 9 line, given where their resumes are at. It's just harder to make it work with the way that the number one seeds are probably going to work out this year.
- [30:42]
That is the best way that someone's explained that to me, period. So thank you. Because I've been trying to figure out like, I understand the conflict. I, I talked about this with Chantelle and Sabrina last, our last show of like in the first and second round, you can't have teams from the same conference matchup. There's too much familiarity. I get it. I'm like, but what happens? Like, what's the answer to that? And so that makes sense that then you can flex in teams from other more mid major conferences and such.
- [31:11]
Can I actually add something on that? Because it's a good point because I think that's something that we're probably going to see too. I'll be interested to see how the committee handles this because for noting like when we got their last top 16 reveal, I believe her name is Dorita Dawkins who's AD over at at Arkansas. She I really appreciated and enjoyed her breakdown, like talking about how they built the the top 16 and how they evaluated things. But she mentioned talking about how just the way that the SEC has played out with so many teams being in the top 16, it's worth noting that's going to have an impact on the way like the bracket is built. So I think there are some ways where maybe there, there has to be an element of like, obviously you want competitive balance, but also putting teams where they belong and where they most deserve after the year they put together. But I do think it's going to be an element of like, how does that kind of end up playing out with the way the bracket gets built? Because it just makes it harder when you have. Instead of it being more balanced out when you have all these teams at the top from the same conference, it makes it a lot harder to actually build it out like that.
- [32:08]
Wow. Okay. Yeah, this is going to be really interesting and I think it's, you know, I'm not going to say it's unprecedented, but because there's so much talent in two particular power conferences, it's going to be quite some work for the selection committee to try and build this out in a way that it's fair but also abides by that kind of rule. I'm not even sure if it's like a. Is it a real rule or is it just like something that they're trying to avoid?
- [32:31]
It's technically a rule. So it's the actual like rule list in a way of like how you're supposed to do things for the brackets, like a four or five page document. It's a lot of stuff. So like you obviously can't do everything perfect. I think that's the hardest part of the bracket is trying to make every little thing work. But tbd, man, I think that's the hard part because even last year, like there were things that happened in the bracket where I was like, whoa, like I'm surprised they did that, you know, like. So it's just, it just kind of is going to depend.
- [33:00]
Oh, I can't wait to get the surprises out of you. Okay, now before we get to the mid majors because you've listed quite a few that are going to make this exercise even more difficult. Want to get your thoughts on the first Four. Like who do you think could be in the first four for this year?
- [33:16]
Yeah. So right now my final iteration of what the first four is going to look like, I have in order. Iowa State, Washington, Harvard and Princeton. Iowa State is a team that I was, I tried to get higher on during the year. I had them around an eight or nine seed at times.
- [33:32]
I think all of us did.
- [33:33]
And I think I ended up like so that this was the biggest one for me. Yesterday when I was going back through and looking at things, I still think kind of like we talked about, I think they could end up on that number eight or number nine line because of what we, what we just talked about with the balancing out, you know, stuff for the top four seeds. But you go and you look around like Oregon is another team that had kind of fallen for me that was around there. But then I, you actually compare Oregon and Iowa State's resumes. Oregon has that win over Baylor early on in the year. They have more quad one wins. I think you can just say point blank they had a better, better resume overall. And I think like the fact that they have a win over Baylor and Iowa State I think lost the Baylor three times this year or no, it's just twice. I think that played a factor for me in deciding to lower Iowa State because Iowa State again, they played a really tough schedule out of conference. But I think again overall like I think Oregon just had better wins even though again lower in the net. It's not all apples to oranges but like you even if you stack things together. So Iowa State went 4 and 10 in quad one and two games and 6 and 1 in quad three games. Oregon State didn't lose a single quad three game. They were 6 and 11 in quad one and two games. I think like that's enough for me where I'm like okay, I can see having them over Iowa State, I think that's more deserving even if they didn't finish the season as well.
- [34:50]
Sure.
- [34:50]
But again like I think part of what's interesting with some of the mid major stuff like and I'm not saying it'll happen, but maybe the committee just sees like all right, how about instead of putting in some of these not as, you know, robust power teams, we just throw in James Madison because they were awesome. They didn't lose a single conference game and then they lost unexpectedly in some belt conference and in overtime game. Like it wasn't a blowout, it was completely close. Like they played a really tough non con. Like again I'm not saying that'll happen. I actually probably doubt it would happen. But I think with again, when you're coming out to balancing some of the bracket stuff, maybe we do see a couple of those mid major teams slide in to just kind of balance things out, make it a little bit easier.
- [35:29]
Okay, well that's a perfect transition to my last section of this conversation. Talking about some of these mid major automatic bids and also like the big time wins that happen. You just reference the James Madison loss to Arkansas State in overtime time. James Madison closed the year out unbelievably, like they were not losing games they hadn't lost since Christmas. And then they lose to Arkansas State, allowing Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt Conference. Then there's also George Mason with a milestone season of 27 wins, the most in history of the program winning the Atlantic 10 conference over St. Joe's and what you called a quote, bid stealing moment, end quote. These type of wins are major, no pun intended, on the fact that it's mid majors that we're talking about. But you know, wanting to know more about like the ripple effects of these type of wins and particularly like a George Mason's, like how does that impact other teams trying to get into the tournament in the big dance?
- [36:28]
Yeah. So first off, shout out Arkansas State. That was pretty sick. They were, that was totally unexpected. So it's wild. We were talking about this before we hopped in, but like slumbout plays, 18 games, 14 team conference and Arkansas State and James Madison hadn't played once this year until they met in the championship game.
- [36:45]
Right.
- [36:45]
I think what's. So what's interesting with this one? I am not like we just kind of mentioned, I'm not sure that James Madison has the resume to get in as an at large. I personally, like, if I was building out the bracket, I would like to see it because when you go out and you test yourself like they did even in in losses and they were as dominant as they were in conference. Like I just, I would like to see a team like that in the tournament, but I think this one probably doesn't have a big impact on the actual bracket because Arkansas State wasn't expected to get in. I don't think JMU gets in without having the automatic bid. But what happened, the A10 is massive. So George Mason is a team that had been on the bubble, but kind of more on the back end of the bubble for me. Like a team that was in the mix for sure. But like I think part of what's made things difficult this Year is Virginia Tech has been like that, that last second to last team from being out the entire season because they'd always done just enough to be right there, but not enough to be pushed out. But no team had really been able to catch them. There hadn't been enough done in non conference play to really elevate what they'd done. Except for a team like Richmond, who Richmond I've had in throughout the year, regardless of what it was going to look like. Obviously they were a team that's been projected to win the A10 the entire year. They won the regular season title. They were dominant in the A10. They went 17:1, they went out and they, they beat Fairfield. At Fairfield, they beat Oklahoma State neutral court. They beat Columbia. They played Texas extremely close. They played Tennessee. They had a really competitive game with Alabama. Like they played a really difficult non conference schedule. So when you look at, especially taking that win against Oklahoma State and playing Texas tight like they did, kind of like we talked about with West Virginia, I think you saw the ability of what this team could do. And they also backed it up by having one of those wins and then doing what they did in conference play. I mean, that just keeps them where they're at, in the net and also in your mind of what they can do competitively. They didn't lose bad in the A10 tournament. It was, I think a three point loss. It was extremely close. It just happens. So that's a team, it's called to me, bid stealing because that's the team that was projected to win the A10. They were the only team from the A10 that was projected to make the tournament. And then a team in George Mason comes out and they end up stealing the bid. So technically they're not even the ones who steal the bid, but like George Mason comes up and steals the bid because Richmond ends up losing in their second game of the tournament against St. Joseph's so, so that's why it ends up being called a bid steal. Because what would have been an open at large ends up going to Richmond instead of a team like Virginia Tech, who to me is probably the most directly affected team by them, you know, losing out and George Mason taking that win.
- [39:18]
And last but not least, I'm happy you mentioned, well, am I happy you mentioned Harvard and Princeton as your, your first four, two of your first four teams. Because I gotta ask about this conference. It's near and dear to my heart. The Ivy League, of course, the conference champ has not been set yet. They play for that title this Coming weekend. But you've been speculating this could be a year in which three teams, three from the Ivy League end up in the tournament. When I played there was no conference tournament. So it was only one team. Whoever won outright the conference, that's who went to the tournament. So this is crazy for me to even contemplate not only somebody from the tournament, someone from the conference, and then someone potentially at large getting an opportunity to be either in the final 64. Obviously my Alma mater, Yale is not one of them, but we're talking about Princeton, Harvard and Columbia. You had Princeton and Harvard, I believe in your first four conversation. Of course, Columbia has been surreal this year. What are you seeing with these three teams? What are you anticipating for the conference tournament this weekend? Like how will that affect these bids?
- [40:32]
Yeah, so I think after George Mason winning and taking that bid, I think it makes it a little bit harder for the Ivy League to have this play out with them getting three teams in. I still, I think two is pretty much like a guarantee. So let's look at it like this. Harvard and Princeton play again in the semis. Harvard has lost two games to both games that they've played against Princeton and they've lost. I think Harvard needs to win this to get in. Like I don't, I don't want to say that they're out if they don't win it. I personally, I think Harvard has a better resume than Virginia Tech at this time. But I do think the difficulty is if they lose this game, that's the last thing that they leave the committee with is losing to Princeton again. I think that makes it harder I think again for Princeton too. Like I think they also need to make to win this to get in because it just would look, I think getting to the championship game makes, it just makes you take away some of the ability to, to have somebody like me or the selection committee sit here and like second guess your resume and what you're doing right now. Sure, I would imagine Columbia, as long as Columbia doesn't lose to pen and they get to the, the championship game, I think they're just in like squarely. I'm not really worried about that with them because they've one on one with Harvard. They've beaten Princeton both times. They played a good non con and they were strong in that. Like I think that they're just going to get in especially too like this Columbia team has a better resume than last year's. Didn't that that team got in in the first four.
- [41:48]
Right.
- [41:50]
So it just Kind of depends. But it's also an element of like, you know, who, who does the committee have as six seeds? Because six seeds are who plays the 11. And it's not that it's impossible, but for the most part you don't. Again, you don't want the same conference teams playing. So like if, let's say Florida State's a six seed, which I think is a possibility, if you have Virginia Tech coming out and then playing Florida State, you don't really want that competitively. Like again, they can do it. It's not, not something that's never happened before, but technically you want to avoid that. So if you put in an Ivy school, it makes it a little bit easier instead of having, you know, that team there. So I do think that's kind of in the Ivy's benefit this year that, you know, they do need some of the balance with mid major stuff. But it just kind of depends. So to clear out, I think it's a guarantee that we get two. I think three is going to be harder.
- [42:36]
Okay. Especially with George Mason getting that bid.
- [42:39]
Yeah.
- [42:39]
Okay. All righty. Oh, all right. My mid major heart is just very gleeful to hear all this information and I, I personally would love to see. Cannot believe I'm saying this out loud, but would love to see Harvard in the tournament. I'm a big fan of Harmony Turner and in her game and I just feel like it'd be so cool to just see her turn up on some competition. Okay, now it is time to turn our attention away from the mid majors, away from who's battling to put on their dancing shoes. And let's talk about the folks that are, are definitely in, but particularly who's going to be the number one overall seed. Now, we spent some time on the POD on Tuesday with Sabrina Chantel, myself. We speculated about the number one seeds. We all said one school and I'm not going to say what the school is. And you've been busy, so I'm going to assume that you don't know what we said. Okay.
- [43:30]
I don't know what you said. I was going to ask.
- [43:32]
Good, good. I'm not going to say it. I want to see what you say because we got you here and we want to hear your take. Who are you taking to be the four number one seeds in the bracket and then who is going to be the number one overall seed in your opinion?
- [43:45]
Yeah. So I'll just give it to you. Number one overall right now is ucla. I think UCLA is the number one overall seed. So I have ucla, and this is in order. Ucla, South Carolina, Texas and usc.
- [43:56]
Boom. That's it, y'all. Four for four across the board.
- [44:00]
Oh, that's how you had it.
- [44:01]
We all said ucla. There you go.
- [44:04]
So hear me out because I've thought really hard on this one and I'm again, I'm not trying to say that I'm right. This is just like trying to put on my. I, I want to. I hope people understand, like, this is not me saying I hate your school or this or that. Like, it's not me, like, legitimately. It's not me trying to give my opinion. It's me trying to do everything from how the selection committee is doing it.
- [44:20]
Fair.
- [44:21]
The selection committee had UCLA still as the number one overall team the last time that they had lost to ufc.
- [44:30]
Right.
- [44:30]
I don't think that has changed. I would be surprised if that has changed.
- [44:34]
We brought that up too, on the podcast side.
- [44:36]
So, like, I just, I don't think that anything else has happened for me to think UCLA is going to drop.
- [44:41]
From that, especially with the win over usc.
- [44:43]
Exactly. Yeah. So, like, I think if they had lost in the Big Ten tournament and I think they would have absolutely dropped, but they won that game. I don't know, man. Like, I just would be really surprised if they fall off given how the selection committee has viewed them so far.
- [44:55]
Sure.
- [44:56]
I think where it gets murkier for me is there's just so much like you go up and down the top eight to 10 teams, they've all beaten each other in a way. Obviously. I think the best thing going for UCLA is that they'd only like lost USC and they'd beaten everyone else. So having the head to head win against South Carolina, I think one of my only gripes with the committee is like, they just are very, it seems non committal and also just kind of wishy washy on what they think about head to head. Like, you know, when we got that last top 16 reveal, South Carolina was the five with UConn as the six. And they said, well, a big reason we had South Carolina at the 5 is because of the head to head loss to UConn. I'm like, like, well then why wouldn't UConn be?
- [45:34]
You can't be higher. Right?
- [45:35]
Exactly. And I, I do want to say point blank, I understand the resume aspect. Like, sure. UConn has six quad one wins. They've played the 48th overall strength schedule, second in non conference. And you don't want to undersell that. South Carolina's played the number one overall strength of schedule in the country, and they have 16 quad one wins. But I also just don't think you can deny how they lost to UConn and what that looked like. But I still like, again. And that's not. That shouldn't color the entire resume of a team. But I just. Just. I don't know. It makes it a little bit more. It's harder to kind of pinpoint, you know, what. How they view head to head. So. Point being, I have South Carolina number two because of that. Like, I think that they've been pretty clear. And, like, not that head to head doesn't matter, but it's your overall resume. And maybe head to head separates you on, like, between one or two spots. And that's why I'd have South Carolina over Texas. Like, they. Obviously. They dominated Texas in that last game. It's 2 and 1 against Texas on the season. I just think it's really hard to look at their overall resume, too. Like, they beat North Carolina State convincingly, and I have North Carolina State as one of the first number three seeds. They beat TCU extremely convincingly. TCU is a two seed. They beat Duke in a competitive game, but ended up winning by double digits. That's a two seed.
- [46:42]
Like, especially with the way Duke closed out the year. Holy.
- [46:46]
Yeah. Yeah, I think so. Here's how I would put it. I think South Carolina has, quote, unquote, the best resume. But I just don't think that you can look at the game with UCLA and say that that shouldn't be a separator. Sure. And I'll be interested to see how they view that.
- [46:59]
But tbd, I feel like this entire exercise could just be called. But then again. Yeah, exactly.
- [47:07]
Exactly.
- [47:07]
It's just like a constant. Like. Yes, but, you know, that's what you have to do. And we won't know, obviously, until Selection Sunday where these things land and is it Is what it is. But what's so fun about it is that regardless of what they do, they're gonna be putting a chip on someone's shoulder.
- [47:26]
Right.
- [47:26]
They're gonna make it competitive, and they're gonna throw someone off. Some programs around the country are gonna be like, really? We're not the number one. We're not the number two. We're not top 10. We're not, you know, whatever it is. And so it's gonna make for great competition. And this year of all years is the first time that I think that it's not a lock that the number ones and the number twos and number threes are the ones advancing right. Like, it feels as if there's more parody. There's still a lot of uncertainty around where all things will land, and it's really, really fun overall. Before we get you out of here, I just want to say, first of all, thank you for all that because that was a really great breakdown. And also I love when you interject your examples because it gives context to what you're saying. Last thoughts before Selection Sunday. Things you're looking out for, things you're worried about. Things that are keeping you up at night. Like anything that you're thinking about before Selection Sunday pops up.
- [48:22]
That's a good question. I think one of the bigger questions I have is where does Notre Dame get seated? Because I think they very clearly should not be a number one seed. Respectfully, like the way that they closed the year. You can't tell me that's the same team from earlier in the season. Obviously, that's not saying they can't recapture that, but just where they're at right now, I would be surprised. Where does LSU get seeded? I have LSU as the first number three seed. I think Duke's overall resume is better. I think. Think you can say the same thing about tcu. Obviously you factor in like Faj Johnson, missed the end of the season, SEC tournament. That colors things. But I still think, you know, it is kind of what it is overall. The four seeds, I don't know, man. I've put together my best guesses for it and I just don't know what it's going to look like because basically, like the top 13 teams in the country were all really easy to decide and figure out and then you do from like 14 to 21. It's just like you could really stack them. However you want to look at it, it and it makes it really difficult. So I think that's probably what's going to be. I'm most ready to just get to Sunday so I can see what the heck that looks like because I bet I can construct in my mind and it's probably not right.
- [49:25]
So. Well, listen, the amount of work that you've done and the amount of research that you've done and amount of film that you have watched, oh my gosh, I don't know anybody else that's watching games the way you are watching. So we appreciate the work that you are putting in and of course we appreciate you coming on. Spend an hour with us, breaking down the tournament, letting us know everything that you know and giving us just a little bit of a leg up going into selection Sunday so that we could feel a little bit more prepared for our brackets. And we're excited to have you back because once this is all revealed, we have to figure out what you're thinking. I mean, how much did you get right? How much were you surprised? We can't wait to have you back for that. So thank you, Mark, and and thank you so much to everyone that tuned in today. Don't forget, the next time that you see this pot in your feed, it will be under our new name, no off season. If there's anyone that depicts that better than Mark. I don't know. That's literally the concept of women's basketball. And that's why we're changing this names. We're going to be relaunching. So excited for no off season. And that next pod will actually be dropping a day earlier than usual. Look out Monday morning instead of Tuesday morning. Look out Monday morning. And then we're going to have another episode on Tuesday morning for our very special selection Sunday edition of no off season. We'll be getting some hot takes from Sabrina and Chantel on the actual bracket just hours after it drops. And Chantelle will be revealing her picks in all of their glory for all to hear. And we've got a lot of incredible content coming up over March Madness overall, including the chance to join our very own no off season bracket challenge. Look at that. Okay, you could be a part of the conversation with us, part of the challenge overall, plus the chance to call or write in with your burning bracket questions. More info on the pod on Monday. So remember to hit that subscribe button and make sure to check out our partner, the Yahoo. Sports hub@sports.yahoo.com womens sports. If you're a person that listens to pods on the phone like me, cool. But if you like the video, you want to hang out with us, you can go see that at the sports hub at Yahoo. For now, on behalf of Mark, I'm Zena Keda thanking you for your ear and encouraging you. Keep listening, keep watching, keep learning, and keep loving the game because that's the only way we're gonna keep growing it. Until next time.
- [51:51]
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- [53:10]
ACAST powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend.
- [53:18]
Marc Maron
Hey folks, it's Marc Maron from WTF. It's been more than 15 years now, and I'm still talking to all kinds of people in my garage every week. Sometimes it's Bill Burr, sometimes it's Ariana Grande. She just looks at me because she's always going like, dad, it's not that big a deal. Yeah. I go, sorry, I lost my temper. I go, I still love you. You know, Daddy has issues.
- [53:40]
Unknown
Are you afraid of it?
- [53:41]
Of death? Death?
- [53:42]
Zena Keda
Well, I don't.
- [53:42]
Marc Maron
I think about it all the time.
- [53:44]
Unknown
How are we here already?
- [53:45]
Marc Maron
Listen to WTF with Marc Maron twice a week on your favorite podcast app. Or get more WTF with a WTF plus subscription. Just go to wtfpod.com and click on WTF.
- [54:00]
Unknown
Acast helps creators launch, grow, and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com.