No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show - Episode Summary Episode: Getting Ready for Selection Sunday
Release Date: March 14, 2025

Introduction

In the "Getting Ready for Selection Sunday" episode, hosts Zena Keita, Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, and Ben Pickman delve deep into the intricacies of the upcoming NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament. The episode features insightful discussions with basketball writer Mark Schindler, renowned for his expertise in bracketology and coverage of women's basketball. Together, they unpack the complexities of team selections, seedings, and the ever-anticipating Selection Sunday.

Understanding the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Structure

Mark Schindler begins by outlining the fundamental structure of the tournament:

• Total Teams: "We're going to have 68 teams technically in the tournament." [08:02]
• Bidding Process: The selection includes automatic bids for conference tournament champions and at-large bids determined by the NCAA selection committee.
• Hosting and Seeding: Top-seeded teams host the initial rounds in their arenas, ensuring high-seed teams start strong. "So, teams that host get to host the first two games in their respective arena." [07:10]

Factors Influencing Team Selection and Seeding

Mark delves into the multifaceted criteria the selection committee uses to determine team placements:

• Net Rankings: "The net can be used in evaluation, and the committee certainly uses it to ascribe value to teams at times." [13:48] While essential, net rankings serve more as an observational tool rather than a definitive measure.

• Quad Rankings: Explaining the newly introduced quad ranking system, Mark states, "Quad rankings essentially, like, okay, well, it ascribes value to the kind of game you're playing in." [16:28] This system categorizes games based on the quality of opponents and game locations, adding another layer to team evaluations.

• Strength of Schedule and Performance: A significant emphasis is placed on how teams perform against strong opponents and their consistency throughout the season. "What have your last two to three weeks looked like? Did you go out early in the conference tournament?" [11:32]

Bubble Teams and Critical Contenders

The conversation shifts to the critical "bubble" teams vying for the last few at-large bids:

• Key Bubble Teams: "Washington and Virginia Tech were in very similar situations for most of the year." [25:50] Washington's strong finish and adaptability make them a strong contender, whereas Virginia Tech's late-season losses put their bid in jeopardy.

• Impact of Conference Performance: The hosts discuss how mid-major conferences like the Ivy League and Sun Belt influence the bubble dynamics. Mark highlights, "George Mason comes out and steals the bid because Richmond ends up losing in their second game of the tournament." [36:45]

• First Four Predictions: Mark predicts potential First Four teams, including Iowa State, Washington, Harvard, and Princeton, emphasizing the competitive nature of these slots. "I have UCLA, and this is in order. UCLA, South Carolina, Texas, and USC." [33:16]

Seeding and Bracket Implications

Delving into the nuances of seating and bracket construction:

• Avoiding Same-Conference Matchups: "In the first and second round, you can't have teams from the same conference matchup." [25:57] This rule necessitates careful placement of teams, especially those from dominant conferences like the SEC and Big Ten.

• Flexing Seeds: To maintain competitive balance, some teams may be flexed up or down in seeding. For instance, Richmond might become an 8 or 9 seed to accommodate top-seeded teams without violating matchup rules. "That makes it harder when you have all these teams at the top from the same conference." [29:58]

• Bracket Challenges: The influx of top teams from powerful conferences complicates bracket creation, requiring the committee to balance fairness with competitive integrity. "It's really who is the best, who has the best resume while also playing the best basketball when we're building the bracket." [12:03]

Predictions for Number One Seeds and Overall Rankings

Mark shares his insights on the top-seeded teams:

• Top Predictive Seeds: "Number one overall right now is UCLA. I think UCLA is the number one overall seed." [43:45]

• South Carolina and Texas: While UCLA leads, South Carolina and Texas are also strong contenders for top seeds due to their impressive records and strength of schedule. "South Carolina has, quote, unquote, the best resume." [46:42]

• Head-to-Head Considerations: The committee's approach to head-to-head results is scrutinized, questioning how much weight these matchups hold in final seedings. "I think that you can't look at the game with UCLA and say that shouldn't be a separator." [44:01]

Mid-Major Conferences and Bid Stealing Moments

The role of mid-major conferences like the Ivy League and Atlantic 10 is pivotal in shaping the tournament landscape:

• George Mason's Impact: "George Mason comes out and steals the bid because Richmond ends up losing..." [36:45] Their robust performance challenges the expected outcomes, highlighting the unpredictability of the tournament.

• Ivy League Dynamics: With Harvard and Princeton vying for spots, the upcoming conference tournament results are crucial. "Harvard needs to win this to get in." [40:31] The potential for three Ivy League teams to enter the tournament adds to the excitement and complexity of Selection Sunday.

Final Thoughts and Anticipations for Selection Sunday

As Selection Sunday approaches, the hosts and Mark express both anticipation and the intricate challenges of bracket prediction:

• Uncertainty and Excitement: "There are a lot of uncertainties around where all things will land." [47:06] The blend of objective metrics and subjective evaluations ensures that Selection Sunday remains an exhilarating event for fans.

• Memorable Moments Ahead: The discussion underscores that regardless of the outcomes, the decisions will shape the competitive landscape of the tournament, with teams and fans alike bracing for surprises and triumphs. "They're gonna throw someone off. Some programs around the country are gonna be like, really? We're not the number one." [47:25]

Conclusion

The "Getting Ready for Selection Sunday" episode offers a comprehensive deep dive into the factors influencing the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament selections. With expert analysis from Mark Schindler and dynamic discussions among the hosts, listeners are equipped with a nuanced understanding of the tournament's framework, key contenders, and the unpredictable nature of March Madness. As Selection Sunday looms, the anticipation builds, promising a thrilling culmination to the season's competitive fervor.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Mark Schindler: "We're going to have 68 teams technically in the tournament." [08:02]

• Mark Schindler: "Quad rankings essentially, like, okay, well, it ascribes value to the kind of game you're playing in." [16:28]

• Host: "Who knows, like, what's the answer to that?" [30:41]

• Mark Schindler: "Number one overall right now is UCLA. I think UCLA is the number one overall seed." [43:45]

• Mark Schindler: "They're gonna throw someone off. Some programs around the country are gonna be like, really? We're not the number one." [47:25]

This detailed summary encapsulates the essence of the episode, highlighting the critical discussions and insights shared by the hosts and Mark Schindler. Whether you're a die-hard fan or a casual follower, this episode equips you with the knowledge to navigate the complexities of Selection Sunday with confidence.