← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
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- [00:00]
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- [04:53]
Zena Kaeda
For the athletic I'm Zena Kaeda and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball show presented by Michelob Ultra. Oh oh oh oh oh oh. Welcome back everyone. We appreciate you coming back for another week of the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. I told you that the first two weeks we were just gonna get to know each other a little bit. But we're here now. We're friends, we're cool. We are in the room together. We're getting comfortable and we are locking in for two shows per week. And starting off this week, we're going to talk about the biggest thing that's happening in women's basketball right now. That's of Course. WNBA playoffs Last regular season, games were played this Sunday and spots in the playoffs were officially locked in. Today I'm locking in with Sabrina Merchant and Ben Pickman, national WNBA writers for the Athletic, to discuss the playoff landscape and poke their brains about what they're going to expect or look out for in this year's postseason play. So let's just lay it out real quick. What is the actual layout? Number one seed, Las Vegas going up against number eight, Chicago. Number two, New York is facing off against number seven, Washington Mystics. Number four, Dallas is paired off with number five, Atlanta. And number three, Connecticut will take on number six, Minnesota. Sabrina, we talk a lot about parity in this league and how on any given night one team could be better than another. Are there any matchups here when you think a team that will be decidedly better than an opponent? Or are there any matchups where you're like, I actually genuinely don't know what to expect.
- [06:45]
Sabrina Merchant
I think there's some pretty heavy favorites in a lot of these matchups. Actually, you know, for most of the season we've talked about Las Vegas and New York as the top two teams in the league, pretty clearly a cut above everybody else. And I think that still holds, even with some of their recent slippages. But Even with the 36 and the 4 5, I don't think these matchups are as compelling as they could have been, you know, had they shaken out a different way. Because I just don't think that the strengths of the underdogs necessarily match up with the weaknesses of the favorites in these situations. Like, for example, with Minnesota and Connecticut, Minnesota's best player is Nafee Sakalier, and she'd be going up against the projected defensive player of the year, Melissa Thomas. So I'm not saying that I'm necessarily disappointed by the first round of the playoffs, but at the same time, I would be very surprised if we didn't have 1, 2, 3 and 4 heading into the second round.
- [07:39]
Zena Kaeda
Interesting. Full sweeps expected by Sabrina. Ben, what about you? What do you think?
- [07:46]
Ben Pickman
I mean, the series that I'm most intrigued by in this first round is that Wings Dream Series, that 45 matchup. The first reason why is just stylistically I think it's an interesting clash. In the regular season, the Atlanta Dream, they led the league in mid range shot attempts between 10 and 14ft. That was 8.6 per game. But against the Dallas Wings, that number actually went up to around 13 shot attempts in that range per game. Now, in those three games, all of which Dallas won But the Dream didn't actually shoot a better percentage. They just ended up settling for more jumpers. They shot just 29% from the mid range in that 10 to 14ft range in those three games compared to almost 40% in the regular season. And part of that is just because of the size and physicality of Dallas's frontcourt. Right, you can rattle off the names. Tierra McCowan, Natasha Howard, Satu Sabali, Alwa Khwir off the bench. Kalani Brown off the bench. Dallas just has so much size and strength. They protect the rim so well that it forces teams to just alter their offense a little bit. And I'm interested to see if, you know, Atlanta's top creators will continue to attack the basket or if they'll settle. We'll see what Ryan Howard does. We'll see what else Alicia Gray does. This is a dream team that has so much potential. It is on the rise. It's one of the most intriguing rosters in the league, but it is also their first postseason since 2018. We think, you know, this is a proven team, but it really isn't. They're still trying to build and set the culture and build on the success of the regular season. So we'll see how they perform on the other side. You know, the Dallas Wings, this is a franchise that wants to get beyond the first round. They expect to get beyond the first round at this point. Each of the last two years, they lost in the first round. Vicki Johnson was the coach then. She is no longer the coach. And so, you know, yes, this is a slightly different format than it was two years ago, but this is a franchise that has aspirations to really be title contenders in the wnba. They expect, they almost need to get by in this first run. They've had a very good regular season, but, you know, the roster is. It can get expensive. It has a ton of pieces. It's really intriguing, it's really talented, and it's time for them to perform in the postseason. We'll see what happens. I think Dallas, you know, is expecting to win. I guess Atlanta is also expecting to win. But, you know, I'm curious to just see how it shakes out. I think there's just going to be some interesting fallout based on decent two teams.
- [09:51]
Zena Kaeda
I also think so too, because Atlanta, for me, beyond the statistical matchup and beyond the things that they're doing, they've got an emotional momentum behind them right now. They are playing like rent is due and they are putting work in right. Like they're just gelling Cheyenne Parker, Alicia Gray. I mean, Ryan Howard has been Ryan Howard all year, but I just really feel like that team is clicking on all cylinders right now. And so that's going to be interesting as well to see how that propels them going into this series. And again, it's one of three. Remember, that's the format for the first round in the WNBA playoffs. It's the best of three. So you think about the fact that they went 0:3 against the wings, but they're also. I feel like a more inspired team going into the playoffs this round. So I'm definitely got my eye on that one. I got my eye on the Washington Mystics because, honestly, no one's given the Liberty that much trouble in comparison to any other team in the league. And they've beaten them twice, they've taken them to overtime. This team is also a team that was, I think, hurt by the fact that Elena Deldon was out for most of it. Right. And that probably impacted their. Their seating so low. But that. That matchup right there, I don't know if it's going to be as simple as a 1, 2, 3 for the new York Liberty. And really, I think it's going to come down to who can shoot threes better that day or, you know, out of the three, the three games that they have. So those. Those are some interesting matchups for me, and I think those two definitely look like more parody, particularly in Mystics and Liberty. Now, Sabrina, you said that things aren't so compelling for you. Of course we want people to be excited. What matchup are you excited to see out of what you've seen right now for the first round?
- [11:39]
Sabrina Merchant
Well, I mean, I think you hit on New York, Washington. That obviously is one that is going to draw a lot of eyeballs, especially because, as you said, you know, the Mystics beat the Liberty twice during this regular season. They took them to overtime another time. They've also been just talking a lot about how they're not scared of the Liberty after they won in New York on Sunday. Natasha Howard waved goodbye to the crowd, which, hilarious, because she will be seeing them again very shortly. Had a very nice conciliatory tweet about how excited she was, you know, to playing New York and the atmosphere in New York. So I think it's gonna be a great matchup. But Chicago, Las Vegas, I think, is gonna be really fun, too. And I realize it's the 1 8. It's probably the one that we're least expecting to go the distance, but this was the Matchup everyone was expecting in the WNBA Finals a year ago, right? This is the one they wanted to see. This guy team could not look less like the one that was expected to get to the finals. It's Kali Copper and basically a bunch of different other pieces around her. But like the last time Chicago played Las Vegas in the Postseason was in 2019 when we got just that ridiculous ending with the Dierica Hamby heave. Just one of the craziest things you'll ever see happen in postseason basketball altogether. And they just routinely put up good regular season games. Like you had a couple of really great games in the bubble when the Las Vegas Aces set the regular season wins record. It happened against Chicago and they had to mount this massive second half comeback to make that happen. I like the idea of Kali Capra in the playoffs. She always raises her level of play. Marina Mabry, big game player. Courtney Williams, big game player. Like, it's just a lot of brashness and I think when you go up against the Las Vegas Aces, you need to have that sort of attitude, right? Like you are going to go in as the underdog and Chicago, this particular roster absolutely loves being underlooked. So I just think that particular, you know, swagger, that confidence, just the way that they carry themselves, I mean even going up to like their new coach Emory, like just the way he carries himself. I like that personality of that series. I'm not sure if it's going to go three games. You know, I do think Las Vegas has a very specific mindset to get out of this round as soon as possible to stay at home, you know, not have to travel to Chicago for that Game three. But I think this one could just be a lot of fun to watch just, you know, as these people get.
- [13:56]
Zena Kaeda
At each other 1000%. When you think about Collier Copper, just entertaining for sure. And Dana Evans as well, like that sassiness, that brashness, that attack. That's a really great point. I do think that I was overseeing that 18 matchup and being like, ah, the Aces are going to have their way. But you're right, Chicago does seem like they step up to the occasion every time. Now we've just recently discussed travel on this show and looking at these two matchups or all these four matchups, excuse me, knowing that it's something on the mind of the players thinking about these charters and things of that sort. Are there any teams that you think might be impacted by having to go to a particular arena or having to travel across the country to be able to match up with their opponent.
- [14:40]
Ben Pickman
Well, the first round series that I think is most interesting from a travel standpoint is the Washington New York series because those two teams are so close together. And the way that the WNBA playoff schedule is mapped out is there's actually a ton of time off in between these games. So Washington, as Sabrina mentioned, they just played the Liberty on this past Sunday. They won that game, and they don't play again back in New York till Friday. And I believe that game two then is not until the following Tuesday. So there's, you know, two or three or four days between these three games, in essence, the end of the regular season and the first two postseasons. Now, I don't think Washington had ironed out their plans entirely, or at least they hadn't after the, the Sunday game, the regular season finale. But I do think, you know, wouldn't be shocking if Washington just went home in between all these games. You know, they could either charter up and we've talked about the WNBA postseason charters, and bus back is actually like a pretty convenient, easy option so that, you know, they could theoretically sleep in their own beds on Friday, on Saturday night in between games one and two on Sunday night and on Monday night, and come up on, you know, on the day on Tuesday. Or they could come up on Monday and just have two nights back in Washington. And that, I think, allows for a ton of comfort, which is something that I think is a little bit rare in between in one of these first round series where, you know, not that some of these other matchups, the travel is not as extreme as maybe, you know, it could be. Right. Obviously, New York and Las Vegas are not playing in the first round. Atlanta is not playing Las Vegas in the first round. Seattle is not in the postseason. And so that makes it pretty easy in terms of an east and west coast team playing off. But that New York, Washington matchup, among the interesting components is that travel component. It could lead to just some comfort, some added comfort for Washington because their ability to just go home in between games, for sure.
- [16:21]
Zena Kaeda
And I'm thinking that also sets you up for whoever wins out of that series, putting you in a really good position for the next Face Off. You're pretty probably rested in comparison to the other teams.
- [16:31]
Ben Pickman
Yeah. I mean, you know, in the second round, they could also be playing Connecticut. Right. You know, Connecticut enters the favorite in the 36 series. And so you have just this east coast corridor of, you know, how does New York get to Connecticut? Well, they probably would bus in between games if those two teams Advance. How does Washington get there? They probably would fly. But again, these are relatively easy trips, especially as it relates to potentially how, you know, getting in and out of Connecticut on a more general basis or during the regular season. The kind of travel headaches that sometimes teams have getting to that market, like Washington and New York have it pretty easy, all things considered. So I think it's kind of interesting from the 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, the 2, 3, and then the, I guess 6, 7 matchups, how the travel shakes out again.
- [17:14]
Sabrina Merchant
And you compare that to last year when Washington had to go all the way across the country to play Seattle in the first round, which was significantly more challenging. The fact that three of the Pacific time zone teams are not in this year's season is going to make travel a lot easier. Although I imagine the fourth Pacific time zone team is going to last pretty long.
- [17:30]
Zena Kaeda
That would be the Aces, y'all, if y'all weren't paying attention. Anywho. All right, so we gotta go into it. Sabrina, you already kind of told us your first round predictions. You're thinking everyone's gonna sweep. What about the finals? Let's go ahead and jump to the end. What do you think for that? The finals?
- [17:47]
Sabrina Merchant
Well, let's get in the middle real quick. You know, the semifinals would end up as Las Vegas, Dallas, and then New York, Connecticut, assuming that all of the top seeds get through. And you know, I didn't explicitly say it earlier, but I do think that all of these are going to be two game series. I don't think anyone's going to go the distance though. I think the most likely would be New York, Washington. I still think that this is going to be an eight game first round. I just don't think Connecticut matches up that well with New York. I know that they've had the lead in a lot of or a couple of these games that they play during the regular season and it just doesn't seem to work out, you know, at the end of the game, the way New York's offense works, it's just really difficult for Connecticut to handle. I would have liked to see New York, Dallas. I think Dallas does a lot of really challenging things for New York to handle because of just their size and their physicality inside. But the way this bracket shakes out, I mean, I think we're going to get New York, Las Vegas in the finals. It's kind of been just gearing up for it all regular season, especially here at the Athletic. We've been gearing up for it all regular season.
- [18:43]
Zena Kaeda
Yep.
- [18:44]
Sabrina Merchant
But Yeah, I do think it's going to be New York, Las Vegas, and right now the only separator I can think of between the two teams is home court advantage. So at this moment I'm thinking Las Vegas and five. But, you know, get back to me later.
- [18:59]
Zena Kaeda
We definitely will definitely check in. Don't worry, Ben. All right, I want to get your first round predictions and then, yes, like Sabrina said, let's make sure we get the middle as well and then going into the finals.
- [19:10]
Ben Pickman
Yeah, I mean, I agree with Sabrina. I do like all four of the favorites, I think, think, you know, I think it's a little bold. Maybe not so bold as you might expect to go eight games fully. I think it wouldn't actually shock me if Minnesota got a game off Connecticut. I think Nafisa Collier could certainly, you know, kind of will her team and just have one of those, you know, 30 point, 35 point games and just have an explosion in one of these first two games and send the series back to Minnesota. Though I do think Connecticut wins afterwards. I agree. I mean, I look, I think it feels almost easy, convenient, too safe to just go 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2 and then, you know, determine who wins the finals. You know, if we're going to break it down a little more, I think Dallas probably has the best chance of either Connecticut or, I guess Dallas to pull off an upset and break up this Aces Liberty final. You know, we saw them beat the Las Vegas Aces early in the regular season. Certainly they have the bigs. Tierra McCowan, I mentioned her satu, Natasha Howard. They have the bigs to just throw bodies at Asia Wilson and kind of disruptor. And if Asia gets in foul trouble, you know, Las Vegas doesn't have the depth that it even did earlier in the year when these two teams matched up and when Dallas actually beat Las Vegas, and that was with Candace Parker on the floor. Now, certainly we have seen Las Vegas handle Dallas recently and look pretty good. And I think they were 3 and 1 in that season series. So it's not like Dallas was four, zero or even three and one against the Aces. The Aces did play the Wings pretty well, especially in the second half of the year. But I still think the size and physicality of the Wings poses some problems on the other side of the bracket. You know, Connecticut. For me, one of the big X factors is just how do their guards look throughout the postseason. I think it's. You can say the same thing in the first round that you can say in the second round is, you know, what are they going to get out of Tiffany Hayes? What are they going to get out of Natisha Heideman? Right? Like, those are two players who, you know, can attack the basket, can create. We saw last year in the postseason, Natisha Heideman had a few games of double digit score scoring. I think she played really well in a lot of those elimination games, right? The first round series game against Dallas, Game five against Chicago, she played very well. And the game in the finals that, that Connecticut won off the Aces, she was one of the big reasons. She was hitting jumpers. She was creating, setting up her teammates. So if she can get things going, if Tiffany Hayes can get things going, you know, I think they can make it a little bit tougher. You know, certainly on Minnesota, but also New York in the second round. But I still think New York is too strong, too talented. And then you get to the Finals and, you know, you can't really go wrong. I guess it feels like the MVP conversation, it's like, how do you really pick? You know, Sabrina talks about the home court advantage. I guess, still, I would lean to New York. I think they've just played better in the second half of the year. And I think, you know, one of the things that Sandy Brandello talked about ahead of their most recent matchup in late August in New York, in Brooklyn, that the Liberty won was just that the Commissioner's cup win, you know, really gave the Liberty some confidence that they could win on Las Vegas's home floor. Like, I don't think they are phased by that environment, by that crowd. Certainly it is an advantage, you know, having Game five back in that arena, being able to host it, playing in front of your home crowd. But these are fans that New York has played in front of a few times. These are fans that, you know, the big Three for the Liberty have faced in All Star Games in finals before. I don't think they're going to be overwhelmed by that moment. So I don't think, like game five is, you know, having home court is maybe everything the way it would be for an inexperienced team. And certainly New York is coming together for the first time, but they're not new to the postseason in any way. So I still, I think like the Liberty and forward, they were my preseason prediction. I know, Sabrina, they were also your preseason prediction.
- [22:37]
Sabrina Merchant
They were my pres.
- [22:38]
Ben Pickman
Let's just make that clear on the record. But I'm gonna stick to my preseason prediction and go with the Liberty in four games over the AC in the Finals.
- [22:47]
Zena Kaeda
Okay, well, you guys, you Hear it here. This is officially locked in. We got our predictions in. I'm, like, scared to make mine. I don't know. I. I don't. I do not feel like it's going to be eight games straight. I actually do feel like I think the Atlanta will get a win. I agree with you, Ben. I think Minnesota might steal a win. Um, and I definitely think that Washington will steal a win. Plus, I want more games. So there's that. I still do think that the top. I don't know. Washington. I don't know. You know what? We're not gonna have this right now. We are fully having a conversation with our audience, so we're just gonna keep focused. I'll get back to you guys on my predictions for the. For the finals, but I appreciate you guys laying out your thoughts, what to expect. I hope you guys are gonna be tuning in. It's a quick one today because we just want you all to focus on WNBA playoffs. But before we go, of course, I gotta go a little bit off the script for today's off the script. I want to give a quick shout out to Kurt Miller and through him, his player, Dericka Hamby. Kurt Miller, head coach of the Los Angeles Sparks, had the awareness and the thoughtfulness to shout out one of his players, Dericka Hamby, for her ability to have played in all 40, 40 regular season games for the Los Angeles Sparks. That's the most amount of games the WNBA has ever seen or ever played in a season. And she played in all 40 shortly after the birth of her baby boy. It is a remarkable feat. I mean, there are players that did not give birth to a baby and could not play all 40 games. So for. For her body to produce life and to be going through that healing journey and then go on the court and beast it out night in, night out for the Los Angeles Sparks. I mean, it's inspiring, as Kurt Miller said. It's remarkable. It's incredible. And you know, of course, Derrick is not the first to do this. She's not the only one to do this. Nafisa Collier, Cheyenne Parker are two that come to mind right now. But knowing that Dierrika Hamby had complications around her trade from the Aces to the Sparks is why this, this shout out makes it even more validating, gives her even more recognition because there was skepticism around could she come back, right? Could she produce for the Aces if she was pregnant in her second year of her extension? And guess what? She proved anyone that had any doubt wrong. And she proved herself right. She knew that she would be able to do that. She had no doubt in her mind that the work she was putting in in the off season and she would be able to produce and man 40 games of production. So shout out to De'Erica for an amazing season and really shout out too to Kurt Miller for just being a thoughtful coach to give your player that level of validation and being able to see her for the work that she put in. All right, well that is all for today.
- [25:52]
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Marc Maron
Hey folks, it's Mark Marin from WTF. It's been more than 15 years now and I'm still talking to all kinds of people in my garage every week. Sometimes it's Bill Burr, sometimes it's Ariana Grande. She just looks at me because she's always going like, dad, it's not that big a deal. Yeah, I go, sorry, I. I lost my temper. I go, I still love you. You know, Daddy has issues.
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Are you afraid of.
- [27:49]
Zena Kaeda
Of it?
- [27:50]
Sabrina Merchant
Of death?
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Of death?
- [27:50]
Sabrina Merchant
Well, I don't.
- [27:51]
Marc Maron
I think about it all the time.
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Zena Kaeda
How are we here already?
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Marc Maron
Listen to WTF with Marc Maron twice a week on your favorite podcast app or get more WTF with a WTF plus subscription. Just go to wtfpod.com and click on WTF.
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Sabrina Merchant
Acast.com.