← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
Iowa-South Carolina national title game: Who wins it all?
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- [00:00]
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- [04:57]
Sabrina Merchant
For the Athletic I'm Sabrina Merchant and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. Welcome back to the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. I'm Sabrina Merchant here with Ben Pickman and Chantelle Jennings in Cleveland, where we are one day away from the game that everybody has been waiting for. Whether it was the Final Four matchup between South Carolina and Iowa last year that had you waiting for today, whether it was when the bracket was released on Selection Sunday and they were opposite one seeds, I think the majority of people in America, apologies to Huskies fans, were rooting for Iowa and South Carolina to make it to this point. And at 3pm Eastern on Sunday, we will have a national champion for this 2024 season. We just came back from media day with South Carolina and Iowa in anticipation of the final. Chantel, what stands out to you? What are you looking forward to tomorrow?
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Chantel Jennings
I think, like most people, I'm just really curious to see the matchups on both ends of the floor. You know, both of these teams are saying we're really different from. From the teams that we were a year ago. And obviously that's true. You know, the Freshies are gone, Monica Zanano is gone, but sort of the memory lives on. Like, no one has forgotten what happened in that game. And whether it's Iowa wanting to prove that that was the result that was right and win their first national championship, or if it's South Carolina wanting to, you know, finish this revenge tour and to do it against Iowa in the title game to win another national championship, like, it's just sort of poetic justice for the season. We have the number one and two teams facing off for the national championship.
- [06:43]
Love
Off that. I think one of the things that struck me today was how we obviously have the same two teams that met in last year's final four, but how different these two teams are. And you talked about that, but all these players acknowledge, like, not watching that game back and really that game not having a lot of resonance with the one we're going to see on Sunday. I think the exception to that, and maybe you can talk a little bit about this later, Chantel, is Raven Johnson, who said she's watched that game back hundreds of times was, I think, the phrase that she used. But Sanaya Fagan hasn't watched it back. Gabby Marshall hasn't watched it back. So Neil Falter hasn't watched it back. Like, these are two very, very different teams. And so while they met in last year's final four, I would expect the game we see on Sunday to look very different than the one we saw a year ago. Obviously, the other thing that is of note is Caitlin Clark and what this means for her legacy and how South Carolina is going to defend her. And I thought Dawn Staley was just really effusive in her praise of Clark. And she used the phrase that her game is simple yet powerful, which I thought was, like, beautiful, kind of poetic, that she basically just does everything really, really well and is almost impossible to stop. And that's an acknowledgement that we've seen from coaches all throughout the season. But to have it come on the eve of the national championship from the opposing coach and to hear Don's appreciation for Clark's individual greatness, I think was striking. And, you know, for appreciative, I guess, for where the sport is and just tells you about the respect that both of these coaches and players and programs have for each other.
- [08:09]
Chantel Jennings
I think simple yet powerful is sort of what makes this Iowa offense so difficult to defend. It's the read and react. And so it's not like they're calling a ton of set plays where, you know, Lisa Bluder's on the sideline calling out 34 and then south Carolina knows how to defend that. Everyone's playing off one another. And then when sort of the head of the beast is Caitlin, who's making those reads and everyone is such a good cutter. Like, that is. One of my favorite things about this Iowa team is that there's so much attention that is drawn by Caitlyn. A lot of eyes are on her. But I challenge everyone during the game to just sort of like pick a different offensive player on any given play and just watch how they're moving and cutting. It really is. The offense is just really beautiful to watch.
- [08:48]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. On that note, my favorite has become Sydney Affalter to watch in those situations. Ever since she came in for Molly Davis following that regular season finale, she's, I don't know, she just looks more comfortable and confident than I've seen her at any point in her Iowa career. And her movement in particular off the ball, like the way she backdoors is, I think, really important to what Iowa has been able to unlock offensively over the last eight games. I guess we're counting Big Ten tournament. But one thing I did want to focus on, like, that is similar to last year, I suppose, is that South Carolina is still much deeper than Iowa, South Carolina is still much bigger than Iowa. And Iowa was able to counteract those advantages last year because they had Caitlin have 41 point game in the final four and Monica Cenado at another 18. But where do you think the Hawkeyes can counteract those advantages this year? Like, who is going to have to step up in those situations?
- [09:38]
Love
I think the formula for Iowa in the final box score is going to have to look a lot like it did against LSU, right where Clark is going to get 35 or 40 points, Kate Martin gets 21 against the Tigers and Sidney Folter gets 15. I think that's really the style of game they're gonna have to play if. If they want to win, because I don't think they're not going to win if Caitlyn scores 21 points like she did against Yukon on Friday night. And yes, Hannah Stokke added 23 in that game. But I do think, you know, we've seen Iowa win games of different styles, and so that is obviously a positive and we've seen different players step up and that is obviously a positive for them as they get to this stage. But you mentioned the depth. I do think in, in the end, the final box score in Sunday's game, if Iowa wins, probably will have to look a lot like it did a year ago. Ironically enough, despite this different cast of.
- [10:24]
Chantel Jennings
Characters in that game a year ago, South Carolina out rebounded Iowa 49 to 25. I think I remember the margin being significant. I don't think I remember it being double. But now that I'm thinking more about it, that makes a lot of sense. The main difference here is Camila Cardoso, who she is as a player. Not just sort of the difference from last season to this season, but how she's grown through the year in confidence. It's really impressive. She played 32 minutes in that game a year ago, more than any South Carolina player except Zaya Cook and Brie Beal. But she only had 14 points. And I think that's a much different specifically offensive performance than we've seen from her this year. She also had 14 rebounds. We expect that. But I think just how she is around the basket, her touch there, catching passes, being able to finish those two footers, I think she specifically, they're just, you know, maybe Iowa sort of had a response for her a season ago, but the player she is now, I just don't see them having any kind of a response for her.
- [11:19]
Love
I would just say, and it was one of the things that Don Staley talked about is that the stalking matchup, Staley said, is a matchup that they have got to win. And she was very clear about that, that she knows that they're going to try and get out and transition and run and Hannah Stokey is going to go up and down the floor and Caitlin Clark's going to push the pace and they know they have to stop Stoke and Martin and a falter. And, you know, I think it is good that South Carolina is very aware that that is Iowa's strategy on this one. Right. Because that was again, a big reason why they got past lsu. Right. They continue to push the pace in the first quarter and also the third quarter was key in their victory. So I think, you know, Iowa probably knows too, they're not going to, you know, out bully Ball, I guess, South Carolina, and they don't have the front court depth that South Carolina does. And so they're going to have to get out and push pace. And so I do think, you know, it is good that Iowa played LSU just a couple days ago because, you know, in some ways, LSU and South Carolina, they match up really well because they are very similar in a lot of ways. And so that is a good test, a good training ground. But, you know, I guess we'll see. I mean, the depth point is. Is really the key. Right. Like we talk about with South Carolina all year, they just go body after body after body. You wrote about it on Friday night, Chantel, that they could go nine deep and that they're all, you know, top 15, top 25 recruits and just speaks to the strength of their roster. And I don't think there'll be any surprises. The question is just how long does it take for them to adapt to the speed that Iowa wants to play at?
- [12:36]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I think what's interesting about this South Carolina team, relative to last year's, is that their depth is a lot more productive. Like we talked about all the players that South Carolina brought off the bench last year, but in that national title game, I don't remember Brie hall having a noticeable impact or, you know, any of the other. I know Raven Johnson came off the bench, but that was basically just in place of Carol Fletcher. Like, Fletcher didn't really do anything in that game. So it wasn't that nine players were having meaningful outputs in that game. It was just they had other options in case someone wasn't doing something. And that isn't the case with this Gamecocks team. Like, everybody makes an impact. So it's weird to think a team that lost five players to the WNBA draft is somehow deeper this year than it was a year ago. But I do believe that they're just. The offense is more democratic. Like, everybody is able to do something. I mean, it naturally all runs through Camila Cardoso. And I think that's going to be a tougher matchup for Iowa this year than it was last because she is better and Stalky is just a very different player than Monica Senano. But I think about that depth so much and like, when was the last time Iowa had a meaningful contribution off the bench?
- [13:33]
Love
I mean, I would say that the most meaningful came like Addison O'Grady. Right. Like against LSU. And it's not a points thing. It's more just can you provide productive minutes? And so, you know, if they can get productive Bench play just defensively and slowing down Cardozo, slowing down Raven Johnson, you know, I think I'm sure at least a Luder and members of that coaching staff would say those are productive minutes, but I don't think it's fair to really expect like a big scoring outburst from any of those players off the bench. I think that would be a surprise. And they also need Gabby Marshall to light it up a little bit more offensively. You know, she's been pretty active on the defensive end and time and time again, it seems like throughout this tournament run and Big Ten tournament run, she's come up with big steals, big deflections. On Friday night, she obviously drew the charge on Aaliyah Edwards that gave Iowa the ball back and was, was, you know, the most important possession or most impactful possession in that game. But they're going to need more from her on the offensive end as well, and we'll see if she can provide that spark. She's pushed the patient transition well, but she needs to shoot it a little better, I think, to, to give Iowa a chance and anything she brings will be, will be super additive.
- [14:34]
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, I think you kind of hit the nail there on the head as well. Like we're talking about all of these really important things for this game, but I don't think we can, you know, ignore the three point line at all. That was one of the difference makers last season in this game. South Carolina only hit four three pointers. They shot 20% in that game. Iowa actually only hit seven, but I think they're going to need that differential again because Camila Cardoso probably wins the inside battle here. Right. The, the Gamecocks have the heavy advantage there. And so there's going to be some level of trading twos for threes. And if Iowa wants to stay in it in that way, I think they need to have like a plus six, plus seven differential in terms of three point shooting. And that's a much tougher task this season because you look at South Carolina's roster and the improvement in three point shooting from last year to this year year. I don't know if we can attribute it just to Winston Gandy, the, the coach that Don Staley brought in. Raven Johnson really does attribute a lot of her improvement in her three point shooting to him. But you look up and down this roster and you know, Malaysia Full Wiley shooting 34. Tahina Powpow is shooting 46, Brie Halls 38. Raven Johnson's 37. Camila Cardos is also 100. We should know one for one on the season. So they just have so many weapons around the perimeter. There's not going to be an ability to sort of sag off and pack it in the paint in the way that they did against South Carolina last season. And that obviously changes the calculus for how the interior works. And so it's just South Carolina is so balanced this year. It's going to be a completely different game.
- [15:58]
Love
Chantel, can you just speak a little bit more about Raven Johnson? I know you have a story coming out on the site on Sunday morning about her and she seems to be, you know, the lead character right now for South Carolina that everyone is talking, talking to and whose growth maybe is emblematic of the changes in this team.
- [16:14]
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, everyone remembers the Wave off video and I had a chance to chat with her and her mom and her trainer slash mentor, Justin Holland, and just about sort of the growth from that moment moving forward. And I think everyone saw that viral video. If you're listening to this podcast, I'm sure you saw that video of Caitlin Clark sagging into the paint and kind of flicking her wrist. And Raven doesn't shoot the ball, which, you know, you look at how good of a three point shooter she is now. And I asked her about that game and sort of the aftermath of it and she said it was really like a one, two punch. And the first thing was that she felt responsible for that loss. She felt like she let the team down. The reason the Freshies didn't get to have a chance to go for a national title was because of her. And then she saw how viral that video went. She said that, you know, she completely deleted social media from her phone. She's used the word depression to describe how she was feeling. She told me she went to a grocery store and someone made a joke about it. And at that point she was basically like, I'm not going outside. Like I'm just going to stay in my room. And she thought about quitting basketball, but ultimately decided not to. And she stayed in South Carolina over the summer, worked on her shot, and now it's, you know, she has so many attributes to her game that are, are impressive, but three point shooting and, and this team as a whole and how they've improved there, it just makes them, you know, I don't know how many times we've talked about how good South Carolina is this season, but they're just such a complete team. And the perimeter shooting is a big reason why.
- [17:36]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, Kate Martin was talking about this today where she doesn't Take too much away from last year's game against South Carolina because they can shoot now and you can't just pack the pain against them. And I hate to keep bringing back to last year, but, you know, Iowa goes from that Final Four game against South Carolina to the national title game against lsu. And I remember Alexis Morris saying before that game, like, well, they can't guard us the same way they got at South Carolina because we can shoot. And Iowa obviously got burned badly from the three point line in the national title game against the Tigers. Now, I don't think that we're going to expect, you know, I mean, honestly, Malaysia Flow Wiley could come off the bench and score 17 points in the first half. Now that I put this thought in the ether, like, she could easily have a Jasmine Carson level first half or Tessa Johnson. Right. So that game plan definitely has to change defensively for Iowa and they are so much smaller. Like, you know, last year was McKenna Warnock and Monica Sonato doing the banging inside. Like now Kate Martin plays power forward. And think about those lineups when Ashlyn Watkins is in there next to Camilla Cardoso. Is Kate Martin going to be keeping Ashland Watkins off the glass? Like, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Kate Martin, but watkins just had 20 rebounds in the Final Four game against NC State. And she is a superior athlete in just about every way to Kate Martin just in terms of her leaving ability and lateral mobility and all of that. But it's crazy to think about how different South Carolina is, but how much they've improved just in this year while obviously Caitlin Clark has dominated, you know, this national discussion. I think Caitlin Clark's a lot better than she was at this point last year. But I don't know if her improvement is enough to overcome what South Carolina has done.
- [19:05]
Love
Can we get big picture here for a second? And we're going to dive into, I think, the implications of this game after Sunday and for Monday's pod and in the week to come and there'll be a lot of conversation, but I guess to, to set this up. Do you think tomorrow's game is more important for kind of the legacy of South Carolina becoming an undefeated team, the 10th ever, the fifth program to achieve that, or for Caitlin Clark to have this storybook ending to solidify her place in the history book, to add to her legacy? Which one do you think needs this win more or a victory would do more to add to?
- [19:42]
Sabrina Merchant
I think it's pretty clearly Caitlin, because the entirety of the South Carolina roster, other than Camila Cardoso is coming back for South Carolina. Don Staley has shown an ability to recruit tremendously well in Columbia. They're going to keep having great rosters coming through, a tremendous amount of talent coming through that program. Even if they don't go undefeated this season, I don't think it's a referendum or an indictment on their program at all. Like, if their only two losses in a two year span happen to be to the generational talent that is Caitlin Clark, I don't think it reflects poorly on Staley or South Carolina at all. Whereas this is Caitlin's literal last chance. Like South Carolina will be here next year. I can almost guarantee you they'll be in the final four next year. I don't know who they'll be playing at this point, but I mean, this is it. Like this is the last 40 minutes or if this goes into overtime, God forbid, of Caitlin Clark's career. And this is her last chance to really stamp herself as a champion. Like, that's. That's it. This is. This is it.
- [20:36]
Chantel Jennings
It's an interesting question, Ben, because it's like immediately my mind just sort of goes to, okay, who's the Goliath in this battle? Like, I think that's sort of the question is like, we think of these games and it's like you sort of, you know, you're not, we're not rooting for anyone. But it's like you can still put it in the perspective of like, who's the David and who's the Goliath? And even in national championship games, I think we see that in different ways. And they're both Goliaths. It's just in very different ways. Caitlin Clark is a generational talent who has changed the sport, you know, with her individual ability. South Carolina is a dominant program that has changed the sport because of how they have come onto the national scene and what they have done. They have lost three games in the last three seasons by a total of seven points. That stat was going around yesterday where it was, you know, they're 108 and three over the last three seasons. But you know, the asterisk there is by a total of 7 points. Like they have been the best team in the country for three seasons by far, bar none. And they've won one national title. Obviously didn't get their last season because of Iowa. It's so hard. I agree with Sabrina though. It's like this is Iowa shot. I don't see this happening again because you're not going to have a talent like Caitlin in this way come through at this moment, they might have another amazing player. Addie Deal is committed there. She could be wonderful for them three, four years from now. But the way that Caitlin has sort of moved this sport forward in a way and brought eyes to it this moment, because of, you know, the bubble and nil and all of this, just this year, what it means, I totally see that point. But at the same time, this game also feels huge for South Carolina because it is, you know, the dynasty they're building. And to sort of complete that this year, year with the 10th undefeated season. I'm totally, like, not giving an answer here, but it's. I just don't know who the Goliath is in this game.
- [22:22]
Love
Let me play devil's advocate on the Iowa point and try and make the South Carolina case, because I do think if Iowa loses by three points tomorrow and Caitlin Clark scores 38 and has a great game, I don't know if a lot of people will look differently at her and her career and how she performed this year. I think people, and I think Don will hear from Don Staley if they win. Like, everyone win or lose, reflects on how great she is. Right. And that will continue throughout college. That's how people will remember this season. And you know, how Clark will begin her WNBA career. Though I should add, Lisa Bluder pleaded said, because Caitlin really, this is going to be her last game tomorrow. Like that she was a little bit upset in her press conference. But for South Carolina, I do wonder, like, if they go undefeated, they'd be the first team since UConn in 2015, 16 to do it. Not that they've been slept on and I think we've talked about them a lot and a lot of other outlets have, too. But there is like a different kind of general public legitimacy with an undefeated season. And we talk about those Yukon teams and hold everyone holds them in such high regard. And I don't think because, you know, it's a team comprised of players who star in their roles versus stars who star in their roles. I would say, like, they obviously have some big names, but we keep talking about the depth and the collection of talent. And we started before taping this podcast, we were like, who are the front runners to win the most outstanding player? And there could be a number of players. Right. Whereas if Iowa wins tomorrow, it's a safe bet it's Caitlin Clark. And so I think the case for South Carolina, you know, this meaning so much to them, is like, this is the stamp of approval that everyone will step back and say, wow, like, they were the dominant power all year. They are the dominant power in the sport. And that, you know, Clark's greatness is what it is. But it almost. Not that it's necessary for South Carolina to win this title, but it's does maybe validate this team even further and put them up there. And five years from now, we'll reflect on, you know, this South Carolina team like we did or like people do with the UConn team or the Baylor team or a Tennessee team of the past, and, you know, maybe they get mentioned in that air in a way that they aren't currently in the present. I don't think Clark, win or lose, is in any different air of conversation based on this result on Sunday.
- [24:29]
Sabrina Merchant
See, that's where I disagree with you. I think Clark is absolutely in a different conversation if she wins a title. Like, Don Staley just had this in her presser today where she said, caitlin can't be in the goat conversation unless she wins. What did she say? I hope to the Lord that she doesn't, that we don't have this conversation. But, you know, Don even included herself in that. Like, I don't get to be in the conversation because I never won a national title. And, you know, we've had this discussion about college basketball goats a lot over the course of the year. And people turn to the. The UConn players because Tarazi won three, because Stewie won four, because, like, Maya Moore won a couple. To me, I just don't understand how you can put Caitlyn on Mount Rushmore or whatever you want to call it, Go Legend, anything, because she has to get a title. Like, there's. There's only one chance to get it. And I don't like to exclusively subscribe to that rings culture, but there is one goal when you start a season, and it is to win a championship. And Caitlyn is in position to potentially, potentially win a championship, too. So to fall short twice in a row, I think does discredit her legacy.
- [25:25]
Love
You know, I would say. I wouldn't say discredits, but I think you're right in the. In that it puts her in a different conversation. I should have been a little bit more careful in my words. But I do think, like, Caitlin is the same player today that she will be tomorrow, that she will be Monday if she has a title or if she doesn't. And I do think, you know, South Carolina maybe has the chance to leap in conversations in a way that, you know, Clark, the level of conversation around Clark Yeah, she will change where she is in the goat conversation or where she is in the history books. But I think the South Carolina team maybe has more to gain if they go undefeated because they will be among the uconns and the Baylor and the Tennessee groups in a way that, you know, Clark's name is already mentioned in those goat conversations. No one's talking about this South Carolina team right now. Like, they are the Stewart Yukon teams. Right. Like. But right now, we enter the national championship, and they both have one thing in common. Neither of them have lost. Lost entering the final game of the year.
- [26:16]
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, I think it's that idea of perfection and how hard that is to attain. And I think you look at the South Carolina team, and my favorite moment from the press conference, from Dawn Staley's press conference after the NC State win was she was talking about Ashlyn Watkins, 20 rebounds. And she said, yeah, but I remember the two she didn't get the two she didn't go after. And I was like, that is where so many of these coaches of elite teams are the same. Gino would say the exact same thing. Thing. Tara would say the exact same thing. You know, you have a player who might drop 40. They're going to remember the shots that they missed. The coaches are going to remember the rebounds that you didn't go after. And I think that idea of perfection and. And specifically, I think it would be so special for this South Carolina team to do it, because, like you said, it's not like they have a singular star around which everything orbits. Camila Cardoso, yes, everything goes through her. But on any given night, cl. Close your eyes and just pick someone, and they're going to be the most instrumental player. And it might be a starter, it might not. And I think that's what makes this group and their chemistry so unique, is that it is a democracy, like you said, Sabrina, I think, and how they play together. And for a group like that to have perfection, I think that is how they'd almost separate themselves within those 10 teams that have been able to do it. Because, you know, when we talk about Baylor, we talk about bg, when we talk about. About Yukon, we talk about Stewie. But if South Carolina can do this on Sunday, they do it without a player like that. And I think that is truly what would make a perfect season, you know, kind of standalone among all of the perfect seasons, if that is even possible.
- [27:47]
Sabrina Merchant
I think that's just what makes this title game so fascinating, because we have two vastly different paths of getting here. Two dramatically different rosters, the way their legacies are going to be shaped based on this game. Like, there's just so much to come out of it, right? Like, there's so much meat on the bone. And I think about last year's title game and how LSU was sort of an unknown when they got there, right? Like, not a lot of people were familiar with Angel Reese and Alexis Morris and Flash Johnson, and now they are, and that's why Iowa, LSU was such a, you know, ratings bonanza and on that Elite Eight game. But, you know, these two teams come in, like, almost fully formed in their narratives. And, like, there's so much to be gleaned from this particular game, which, like, I'm not sure we're actually going to decide who has more to gain from this, but I think that that's what makes it fun.
- [28:28]
Love
Before we make a prediction, I think maybe we ask a last question based on what you just said. Sabrina, who is the person coming out of this game that you think will be a household name that we aren't talking about now that, you know, like, Flaje Johnson had a big game or POA or Angel Reese even, or to some Caitlin Clark? Like, who's the player that you think tomorrow night people will know and as we head into next season, will be someone everyone will kind of be keeping their eye on.
- [28:54]
Chantel Jennings
I'm gonna take the player that I'm almost 95% sure that Ben would pick for this, but since you asked the question, I'm gonna answer it first. I'm gonna say Mylasia Full Wiley is a little bit of a cop out because she was sort of like the star of day one when she had that highlight that Shaq tweeted about and it went viral. But specifically on Friday night, how she came off the bench, I think the defensive spark that she brings could be really troubling for a lot of the Iowa ball handler. She just, like, creates havoc on the defensive end that forces steals. Even when she's not being credited for causing turnovers or getting steals, she causes those. It's sort of like the double hockey assist almost that I wish we could find a way to credit her for those stats and then she can get out and run. And I think she is a player who has, you know, maybe she's not going to be the leading scorer, but I see a huge opportunity here for her to have, you know, two or three highlight real SportsCenter top 10, like, plays that everyone will be talking about on Monday.
- [29:48]
Sabrina Merchant
I'm not sure if this is a Fair answer, because we've talked quite a bit about Camila Cardoso already, but I don't think she's a household name. And I think she has a chance to have a really big game for South Carolina. And maybe it violates the spirit of your question because we won't be talking about her in college next year, but I do think that she's going to have a really big impact at the pro level, like everybody that we've talked to in the WNBA is a big fan of her, and you can't teach six, seven and just what impact she could have at the pros. The more I watch her, just the more I'm convinced that she's going to be able to translate as a professional. And just selfishly, I'm hoping that a lot of the crowd that is watching this game will be watching the WNBA next season and going forward. So, yeah, I think just this matchup shakes out really well for Camila and how much better she's gotten over the course of this year. Just has me really excited about what she could become even beyond this.
- [30:34]
Love
I think it's a good choice. I mean, for Iowa, I think Hannah Stokey is the obvious name here. If she can produce the way she did on Friday night against UConn and, you know, run up and down the floor and score over bigger players, I think she's set up nicely to impress a lot of people and become, you know, an even bigger name than she will be next year. I think everyone acknowledges already she's going to be the centerpiece of what they do next year. So I don't know if I was going to look at her very differently, but Lisa Bluder even talked about her, how much she's grown throughout this tournament run. And so a championship and a big game in that game, I think caps off a really impressive run. But I think you're right. Chantel, like mileage of a Wiley, for all the reasons you mapped out, is I think the name I would go with for South Carolina. Just the ability to three, four times go coast to coast, go behind the back, a nifty assist, just an impressive layup, an acrobatic layup in midair. I think her ability to create highlights and even if she scores 10 points, it also will lead to a conversation about freshmen and young players and, you know, future stars. And she certainly deserves to be in that conversation.
- [31:36]
Chantel Jennings
My laser full Wiley definitely has the highest percentage of, like, impressive points to total points of, I think any player in the country. If there is such a stat, I think we should obviously do our picks now. But before we get there with the picks, Richard Deitch had put out a story earlier this week on the Athletic where he predicted the viewership. And I don't think we know enough at this moment to predict viewership. But his number for Iowa, South Carolina, if that were the matchup, he said his prediction is 16.9 million. So I think when we do our picks for the game, just say over under for 16.9 million. Or I guess maybe if you think it's exact, you could say that too, if you think Richard got it right on the money. But I think we should also predict that because when we reflect on this season, 10 years from now, sort of the proliferation of viewership and how many new fans have been brought to the game in addition to however Sunday shakes out, however we look at Clark's legacy, whatever happens to sort of some of these teams and programs, I think this will be the year that it sort of feels like the floodgates broke in a way. And yeah, I'd love to hear if you guys think that 16.9 is achievable.
- [32:38]
Sabrina Merchant
Okay, I'll start with over on 16.9. I mean, this matchup is just perfect. And it's on abc and we're coming off of a week of games that everybody has been talking about. So they're going to want to see the culmination of how the shakes out. It is Caitlyn's last game at Iowa. I think that's going to just be a phenomenal draw. Unfortunately, I do think Caitlyn's going to lose, so people are tuning in for that. Take this, obviously with a giant grain of salt, because my predictions have been total trash over the course of this tournament. But I just like South Carolina Carolina's size and athleticism too much in this matchup. Unless Caitlin, like, pulls out a 50 burger, which sure, wouldn't that be something? But yeah, I'm gonna take the the Gamecocks.
- [33:16]
Love
I mean, it's no fun to bet over in this conversation, just like it's no fun to often bet overs for all those who gamble. So I will also take the over. I think what, the Monday night game peaked around 16 million. Is that right? So, you know, to think that this game could get a rating that is around the peak of Monday night's game seems feasible, from what I understand. So I'll take the over there. And like Sabrina, I will take South Carolina. I think there's obviously a, you know, it would be a storybook ending for Caitlin Clark and it is one that so many people want. But South Carolina is just a dominant team and we've talked about it on the show, we've talked about it all year, that their depth is overwhelming. They have so many options. They're hard to prepare for because you don't know who's going to step on on any given night. But someone, two, three, four people always do. And I do think, think, you know, we talked about it again with the lsu. Iowa wanted revenge. It seemed like on in that Elite 8 game. And it is South Carolina's turn to avenge their loss last year. Win this for themselves. Win this for the freshies. For Aaliyah Boston and all of her teammates who are no longer with the program, I think there's power there as well. So I will take South Carolina to complete this undefeated season.
- [34:19]
Chantel Jennings
We're just going three for three here, guys. I'm also taking the over. Yeah, we also. So yep, that worked out well. So I agree. I think the over. I don't know as much about numbers as Richard, so I don't want to say too much, but I do feel like it could be significantly more than that. And I picked Iowa over South Carolina two days ago when we made these predictions. And then I saw South Carolina one more time and specifically I watched Wes Moore during that NC State game. Him and his coaching staff sort of how they looked over whenever a player came off the bench to check into the game. And you just sort of see their, their mind spinning and thinking, okay, how are we going to, how are we going to stop Ashland? How are we going to stop Sinai? How are we going to stop Malaysia? And the answer is you don't like. It's just sort of this constant push and I don't think Iowa ultimately has the advantages it did last year in terms of the separation that it can gain from the three point line. And like I said, if Iowa can, you know, finish plus six plus seven from the three point line here and get to the free throw line, specifically if you can get Camilla and Ashlyn into foul trouble, like there is a path to the national championship for Iowa, I just don't think it's super feasible. And I think then it leaves us with a world where we are forever debating whether or not Caitlin Clark can be in the goat situation because she never won a national championship, which don't you guys look forward to debating that for the next decade?
- [35:36]
Sabrina Merchant
I mean, if you're an Indiana Fever fan, you just hope Caitlin super excels at the next level, then we don't have to think about her college career. I just want to point out that last year when we made our terrible predictions about Iowa winning against lsu, we were in a loading dock at American Airlines Arena. We are currently I don't know how to describe this. In the auxiliary workout room of a practice court at the Cleveland Cavaliers Arena. Is that, is that a fair way of describing it? Yeah. Next to a bathroom, there's a lot of plumbing happening around us. I don't know if this is an upgrade or not, but at least there's no dogs. But on that note, I think that's a good place to end. It has been a delight following the tournament thus far. We will be back on Monday, recording for Tuesday to talk about the results of this national title game. To get into the coat conversation, South Carolina being undefeated, whatever happens to transpire on Sunday. But thank you all for listening thus far, make sure you're subscribed to the Athletic for coverage on the game leading up to the game. Immediately after the game, we're going to talk about 2025 before you even know it. And make sure you're subscribed to the Athletic women's basketball show wherever you listen to your podcasts. We'll be back Tuesday and enjoy the championship game.
- [36:50]
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- [37:44]
Chantel Jennings
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