Setting the Sweet Sixteen Table

Summary

No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
Episode Summary: Setting the Sweet Sixteen Table
Release Date: March 29, 2024

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Introduction

In the "Setting the Sweet Sixteen Table" episode of No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show, hosts Zena Keita, Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, and Ben Pickman delve deep into the NCAA Women's Basketball Sweet Sixteen. The episode provides comprehensive previews of the upcoming matchups in both the Portland and Albany regions, offering insights, analyses, and predictions to engage both die-hard and casual fans during the peak of March Madness.

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Portland Region Sweet Sixteen Analysis

NC State vs. Stanford ([07:26] - [12:46])

Discussion Highlights:

• Fresh Faces: Sabrina highlights, “Of the eight teams that are here in Portland, seven were not in the Sweet 16 last year” ([07:26]), emphasizing the excitement around new contenders.
• Team Dynamics: NC State’s dynamic backcourt, particularly Saniya Rivers and Aziah James, is a focal point. Sabrina praises Rivers’ athleticism, noting, “every single jump shot she takes, she gets like a 38 vertical on every single one” ([07:26]).
• Strategic Matchup: The contrasting play styles are analyzed. NC State’s fast-paced, transition-heavy game versus Stanford’s methodical, half-court strategies under Coach Tara Vanderveer.
• Key Players: Stanford’s Cameron Brink and Kiki Yuriathan are highlighted for their ability to handle NC State’s aggressive play, with Sabrina expressing curiosity about how they will manage NC State's guards.

Notable Quote:

• Sabrina on NC State’s excitement: “I love the way they play. Maybe they remind me of my AAU team” ([08:22]).

Texas vs. Gonzaga ([10:28] - [18:28])

Discussion Highlights:

• Team Strengths: Texas is noted for its size and physicality, led by Madison Booker, while Gonzaga excels in three-point shooting, averaging over nine threes per game.
• Potential Upset: Sabrina discusses Gonzaga’s pathway to victory if they can limit Texas’s three-point efficiency: “If Gonzaga can creep up just high enough, like if we can get to 10 threes, this has, you know, upset written all over it” ([16:35]).
• Key Factors: The importance of tempo and defensive strategies, with Texas needing to disrupt Gonzaga’s rhythm to have a successful outing.

Notable Quote:

• Sabrina on the pace advantage: “Any team that gets that tempo more to their liking I think is going to be more successful in this game” ([10:28]).

Southern California vs. Baylor ([23:31] - [28:56])

Discussion Highlights:

• Height Disparity: Sabrina points out Baylor’s lack of height as a significant disadvantage against the taller and more versatile Southern California squad: “They have nobody in their rotation who is taller than six'one” ([23:31]).
• Defensive Challenges: The struggle Baylor faces in defending Juju Watkins due to her height and perimeter abilities.
• Matchup Predictions: Despite a small percentage predicting Baylor to win, Sabrina remains skeptical about Baylor overcoming USC’s height and defensive prowess.

Notable Quote:

• Sabrina on Baylor’s defensive struggles: “I don’t think it’s going to go that well for Baylor” ([26:13]).

UConn vs. Duke ([29:57] - [35:24])

Discussion Highlights:

• Historical Dominance: Sabrina reflects on Duke’s historical struggles against UConn, noting, “They have played 16 games. UConn has won 13 of them” ([32:12]).
• Player Spotlight: Paige Beckers is lauded as potentially the best player in America, with Zena citing Dawn Staley’s praise: “Dawn Staley saying that Paige is the most elite player right now in basketball” ([34:15]).
• Team Grit: Both teams are commended for their tenacity and ability to perform under pressure, with Sabrina emphasizing UConn’s discipline and Duke’s depth: “UConn is a little too disciplined at this stage” ([35:24]).

Notable Quote:

• Sabrina on Paige Beckers' impact: “It is an entirely different team. She is on a different level than anybody else on the Huskies” ([32:27]).

Atmosphere and Emotions at the Sweet Sixteen ([40:23] - [41:25])

Discussion Highlights:

• Emotional Highs: Sabrina describes the emotional intensity of the Sweet Sixteen, highlighting the finality and heightened emotions each play brings: “It's really emotional, you know, like every play gets heightened” ([40:23]).
• Personal Connections: Zena shares her empathy for players facing elimination, mentioning, “I teared up watching D'Asia Fair put her head down at the end of that game” ([41:25]).

Notable Quote:

• Sabrina on the emotional atmosphere: “It's tough because you, you know, only one team can win at any time” ([40:23]).

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Albany Region Sweet Sixteen Analysis

South Carolina vs. Indiana ([43:13] - [48:21])

Discussion Highlights:

• Undefeated Streak: Chantel emphasizes South Carolina’s pursuit of an undefeated season, potentially marking the 10th in women's basketball history: “South Carolina feels as though it's on the march toward history” ([43:13]).
• Team Focus: Coach Dawn Staley’s focus on an individual game mentality, discouraging distraction by future matchups: “The focus is Indiana. It is not the Elite Eight” ([43:13]).
• Player Resilience: South Carolina’s ability to remain loose and handle tough stretches, as explained by Chantel: “they lock in for these games, but they can kind of weather those stretches a little bit better” ([47:51]).

Notable Quote:

• Chantel on South Carolina’s mentality: “Everyone’s the underdog to South Carolina” ([43:13]).

Oregon State vs. Notre Dame ([48:40] - [54:28})

Discussion Highlights:

• Overlooked Fighters: Chantel highlights Oregon State’s under-the-radar prowess and their physical advantage with player Reagan Beers: “They are very much sort of an overlooked team” ([48:40]).
• Defensive Strategies: The importance of controlling the inside game and managing Notre Dame’s zone defense.
• Predictions: While Chantel favors Oregon State for their physical inside play, Ben remains optimistic about Notre Dame but acknowledges Oregon State’s strengths.

Notable Quotes:

• Chantel on Oregon State’s overlooked status: “They are very much sort of an overlooked team” ([48:40]).
• Ben on Reagan Beers’ impact: “Reagan Beer is one of the most overlooked players in the entire country” ([50:05]).

LSU vs. UCLA ([55:09] - [60:13})

Discussion Highlights:

• Depth and Defense: Chantel discusses UCLA’s depth and Lauren Betts’ defensive prowess against LSU’s Angel Reese and Anissa Morrow.
• Motivation Factor: LSU’s motivation to prove doubters wrong fuels their performance, with Chantel noting their desire to “feel that chip on their shoulder” ([55:52]).
• Time Zone Impact: Chantel raises an interesting point about the long travel distance for UCLA, questioning how it might affect their performance: “How are they feeling? What are their bodies feeling like?” ([56:43]).

Notable Quotes:

• Chantel on LSU’s motivation: “They are motivated. They want to feel that chip on their shoulder” ([55:52]).
• Ben on UCLA’s center Lauren Betts: “She blocks shots at a top level without fouling, which is really hard to do” ([56:43]).

Colorado vs. Iowa ([60:13] - [66:41})

Discussion Highlights:

• Rematch Dynamics: Chantel points out the familiarity between Colorado and Iowa, stemming from last year’s Sweet Sixteen clash.
• Caitlin Clark’s Dominance: A significant focus on Iowa’s star, Caitlin Clark, and how her performance versus Colorado is pivotal: “She is just on a mission” ([34:15]).
• Defensive Strategies: Both teams’ approaches to managing Clark’s influence, with Colorado’s Jaylen Sherrod highlighted for her defensive toughness: “She is someone who gets a lot of interest and is highly regarded for her toughness” ([62:22]).
• Prediction Insights: Both hosts lean towards Iowa advancing, citing their continued excellence and experience.

Notable Quotes:

• Chantel on the importance of three-point shooting: “This is a game that the three-point line is really going to play such a huge part in” ([65:45]).
• Ben on Colorado’s potential upset: “I think Colorado has a really good chance, frankly, to pull off an upset” ([62:22]).

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Insights and Predictions

Throughout the episode, the hosts provide nuanced predictions based on team strengths, player performances, and strategic matchups:

• Zena’s Picks:

  • Portland Region: NC State and UConn to advance.
  • Albany Region: South Carolina, Oregon State, LSU, and Iowa.

• Sabrina’s Picks:

  • Portland Region: NC State and UConn, highlighting their standout players and disciplined play.
  • Albany Region: Oregon State over Notre Dame due to their physical advantage and depth.

• Chantel’s Picks:

  • Albany Region: Prefers Oregon State over Notre Dame and LSU over UCLA, emphasizing motivation and defensive capabilities.
  • Colorado vs. Iowa: Leans towards Iowa advancing, anticipating a close game where Iowa overcomes Colorado’s challenges.

• Ben’s Picks:

  • Albany Region: Favors Notre Dame initially but acknowledges Oregon State’s resilience.
  • Colorado vs. Iowa: Predicts Iowa to advance, setting up a memorable Elite Eight matchup.

Notable Group Prediction:

• Chantel remarks, “I think South Carolina wins this one. It’ll be an unfortunate end for Mackenzie Holmes’ career, but they’re the better team here” ([48:11]).

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Conclusion

The episode culminates with reflections on the emotional and competitive atmosphere of the Sweet Sixteen, emphasizing the high stakes and the personal stories intertwined with each game. The hosts express excitement for the upcoming matchups, acknowledging the blend of seasoned teams and emerging contenders that make this stage of the tournament particularly thrilling.

Closing Thoughts:

• Zena anticipates being a dedicated viewer from home, contrasting Sabrina's firsthand experience at the Moda Center.
• The hosts tease next week’s discussion on the Elite Eight, promising continued in-depth coverage.

Notable Quote:

• Sabrina on witnessing emotional performances: “I’m just so impressed by their ability to continue to perform in these stakes” ([40:23]).

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Final Remarks

No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show delivers a thorough and engaging analysis of the Sweet Sixteen, blending statistical insights with personal observations. The inclusion of direct quotes with timestamps provides authenticity and highlights the hosts' passionate engagement with the sport, making the episode a valuable resource for fans navigating the exhilarating landscape of March Madness.

Transcript

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[Zena Kaeda]

For the athletic I'm Zena Kaeda and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. Welcome back to the Athletic Women's Basketball show where we are here to talk all things women's basketball. Basketball particularly right now college basketball. Whether you're a die hard fan that eats, sleeps and breathes the game or a casual fan that's just looking to learn more, especially in the midst of March Madness, make sure to subscribe to this pod, wherever you get them, to stay up to date as well as subscribe to the athletic so you don't miss the written content on year round in depth coverage of this game that you love. Today is going to be a very fun day. I'm going to go through what we're going to cover or what we call the scout today. We're going to actually split up our conversation. Sabrina and I are going to be able to talk about the Portland region of the NCAA Tournament and then Ben and Chantelle across the country will be here to talk about the Albany region. So you're going to get a nice little preview all of our thoughts on both sides of the country. It's going to be a fun one. So let's get going. Sabrina, how you doing today?

[Sabrina]

I'm doing well. Got into Portland yesterday. It's my first time here as an adult. Very rainy but you know, good times.

[Zena Kaeda]

That right on track. That tracks for Portland for sure. Before we dive in into where, why you're in Portland and what we're you're probably about to see in Portland. Let's go through what we're going to cover today or what we call the scout. So today's conversation is going to be about one portion of the tournament bracket, the NCAA tournament going on right now. This weekend's game is going to feature both Albany games and Portland games because it's the sweet 16. This is a fun time during the tournament where you're really going to start seeing some competition just rack up from what it's already been, which is kind of hard to kind of fathom considering how great the first and second rounds were already. If you haven't heard what happened in them, go back. Sabrina and Ben broke it down last show, but we're now looking forward to this weekend. Sweet sixteen is kicking off and we are specifically going to talk about the games that Sabrina is going to see, which is in Portland. Portland 3 and Portland 4 about to kick off. In general, Sabrina, what are you excited for for this particular part of the tournament?

[Sabrina]

You know what's cool is of the eight teams that are here in Portland, seven were not in the Sweet 16 last year. So it's nice for just a lot of new faces, a lot of excitement. You know, everyone's really just happy to be here at this stage of the tournament because things take a step up, right? Like you're no longer at your home court. You're actually on a neutral site. You get all this NCAA swag. You get to travel like it's just a experience. And I think it's fun for everybody to be involved at this stage because it really feels like, you know, March Madness when you get to step off of your campus and, like, get to play on an NBA court. Right? Like, it's just a big step up. And I think you can sense a lot of that newness because of how many teams weren't here last year.

[Zena Kaeda]

And that's right. They're going to be playing at the Moda center where the Trailblazers, usually. The Portland Trailblazers usually play. And the eight teams that are going to be there. Stanford, NC State, Texas, Gonzaga, Southern California, Baylor, UConn and Duke. And that one team that actually was there last year, UConn.

[Sabrina]

Correct.

[Zena Kaeda]

So, all right, so let's dive in, into these games because so far, these two regions, one, I got completely wrong. Shout out to Duke, ruining my bracket. I thought OSU was going to make it down here, but shout out to Duke. Carol Lawson and her Devils. And obviously shout out to Duke. Cause Sabrina went there. But also shout out to Duke. Cause they took care of business and found their way to the sweet 16. But yeah, so my Portland four was all blew up from, like, second round on. Then my Portland three, I'm like, my person's still in there. My team that I chose is still in there. And I feel strong about them, but I do feel like things might get blown up a little bit. We don't know. We'll see. Let's start there. The team I chose was another North Carolina team, actually. NC State. And I love NC State. I've loved them since they took down UConn earlier this year. I've loved them throughout this. This season. I loved them during the regular conference. I just feel like one. I'm obsessed with their backcourt. There's something about Saniya Rivers, the poise that she has, the athleticism. Maybe it's the fact that, like, I feel like every single jump shot she takes, she gets like a 38 vertical on every single one. Like, even if she's not jumping, she just like bends her knees a little bit more to get a little up. But of course, Aziah James, I mean, there's just. There's something about NC State that just excites me. And I love the way they play. Maybe they remind me of my AAU team. I don't know. But NC State going up against Stanford, Wow. Man. It's like the back courts versus the front courts in this matchup. I'm excited to see how Stanford's backcourt matches up against NC State's backcourt because NC State likes to run, they like to push it and transition, they like to go in the middle. And I also am very curious as to how Cameron Brink and Kiki Yuriathan, how they're gonna handle those guards trying to go inside, get some fouls, create some contact, et cetera. What are your thoughts on Sanford NC State? What are you looking forward to in that game?

[Sabrina]

I think you hit on the number one thing which is the pace, right? Like NC State likes to keep games in the open court, they like to run up and down. Transition is their best way. Like they have two super dynamic guards and Isaiah James and Sinai Rivers who are big but also really fast in transition in the open court. And so you know, you think about Stanford a more deliberate offense, right? They get the ball into their posts, they run actions out of those two bigs with Cameron Brink and kick your off. And so just the, the variety of pace I think is so interesting because whoever gets that tempo more to their liking I think is going to be more successful in this game. Um, personally I'm just really excited that I have a red top that I can wear to tomorrow's game and I'm not going to be on either team's side.

[Zena Kaeda]

Like I have neutral.

[Sabrina]

I never want to like wear something that's going to make it seem like I'm a homer for one team. So very grateful for this, this red matchup. But yeah, I think, you know, Stanford obviously like has the advantage inside. I would say that, you know, we saw them have to dig into their bench a little bit with Hariel and Nunu Ogara in particular to contain Iowa State's guards. And I think we're going to have to see even more of that because Lopolo is a little bit smaller than Rivers and James and it's not just one of them, right. It's two big guards you have to deal with. So I'm curious to see how that Stanford perimeter defense works out. Like Elena Bozgana has had like the juju Walken Simon in the past and like often gets the major perimeter threat and it's just, it's an even bigger challenge with what NC State is dealing with. So yeah, I'm just like, like you said, it's very different strengths, very different paces. Two excellent coaches, two teams that will be playing each other in conference play next year. That's something that Tara Vanderveer and Wes Moore were talking about quite a bit today. Wes was joking that he hopes that this counts as his west coast trip for the upcoming season. You know, when he heard that Stanford was joining the acc, he's like, oh, thank goodness Cameron Brink's gonna be gone by then. Well, here we go. Cameron Brinks is still on his schedule before she goes to the wnba. So it's kind of nice, a little preview of the realignment that is to come. But, yeah, I'm really excited for this game because these are two teams that can score really, really well. And we saw how fun Stanford, Iowa State was. We saw how fun NC State, Tennessee was. These are two teams that are playing at a really high level, playing really attractive brand of basketball, I think, because they're so different from one another. Like, I just think we're gonna have a great time watching them go up against each other.

[Zena Kaeda]

And you make a great point about the pace. Like, you know, of course, we've detailed kind of the fact that NC State is one team that likes to run and push things in transition. And Stanford is so methodical in the half court. Like, Lopolo does such a good job of setting the table. And then honestly kind of just standing there a little bit and letting things, you know, develop. She'll get back in the mix as she needs to maybe calm things down and such. But she's not a driving. She's not a huge driving kicker. She will make sure that things are set and make sure that people are in the right places, et cetera. So NC State's gonna have to try and speed them out, speed them up and try to get them out of, you know, their rhythm. River Baldwin is gonna have quite the task inside trying to keep Cameron Brink and Keke Yiriathan off the boards because those two are dangerous. If you did not watch Stanford's last game against Iowa State and see what Kiki does in terms of her ability to face up and go in the. In the high post, mid post. Like, I know there's a lot of attention on Cameron Brink, but there's just. I don't. I don't think there's nearly enough attention on Keke. Like, immediately makes me think of the Aguima K sisters on a different level. It's actually funny if Shana Aguimique tweeted out, I'm paraphrasing here, but talking about how she was at a practice or something and they mentioned that they were bringing in a Stanford player that was going to Stanford and having her work out, and it was Keke and she balled out and that's how I feel. She's such an athletic post with such a quick first step so long and it's just fun watching her play. She has a lot of fun out there on the court. So NC State will have their hands full for sure on the inside. And either way I'm still excited because the number one thing here is what will Tara Vanderbilt's team look like in an ACC type setting, which I think the ACC is fast, fast, fast, fast, fast. Whereas the PAC 12, you think of an Oregon State, you think of a Stanford. These teams do really well in the half court. So even though Cameron won't be there next year and you know it'll be, it'll be a little bit of a different team, it's going to be very interesting to get a little sneak peek as to what that's going to look like. So Stanford and NC State go against each other 7:30pm on Friday. There'll be the first game. So that's 4:30 Pacific, 7:30 Eastern. Now let's talk about the game after it and I got some thoughts. Okay, I got some thoughts. This is gonna be number one Texas going up against number four Gonzaga. Now there are about there's two teams left in this tournament that I will be honest, I will be honest and I'm just saying I didn't give him much thought. I didn't give him a lot. I didn't give him probably the attention they deserved. And that is Gonzaga and it's Baylor. Y'all. Don't hurt me now. I'm so sorry. Don't get mad at me. For one, Gonzaga plays in a situation. I mean they're mid major quote right? So they didn't have a lot of primetime games. It wasn't easy to catch them sometimes. But I feel like you look at the way that they closed their season, the fact that they got to host. I'm just like, really? And I love the Trong sisters. Those, they're cool, man. Like Kaylee K. Lynn. I'm like, y'all are the coolest. I love it. But I haven't seen enough of them to see, you know, do they Warrant A sweet 16 position? Do they warrant being able to up to go up against Texas, which I've seen a lot of. Okay. Seen a lot of them over the year. So I'm have to, I'm have to lean into you. Sabrina, what are your thoughts on this Texas Gonzaga matchup?

[Sabrina]

Yeah, I think the number one advantage Texas has is their size and their physicality. They're big at every position and they.

[Zena Kaeda]

Are strong starting With Madison Booker at point.

[Sabrina]

Yeah, Madison Booker at point guard. That is a load to handle at the one. Like, good luck to the Trongs and everybody else who was associated with having to defend Matty Booker. But then you look at the other side of it and Gonzaga was second in the country in three point percentage. They averaged more than nine threes per game. And you think about Texas losses over the course of the year, two to Oklahoma, who is not even as good of a three point shooting team as Gonzaga. And I think that's really where the advantage comes for the Zags, right? Like, you are going to have to spread the floor and make your shots, right? Like we saw their game against Portland when they lost in their conference tournament title game. They only made 5 of 23. Right. And that's the formula to beating them, is you need to make sure that they are not converting from beyond the arc. And Texas's problem in their losses has been that teams get hot from beyond the arc. So I do see the pathway to how Gonzaga could beat them, but it's just you spread them out, you make some shots from deep, and Texas is not the type of team that's going to be able to keep up with you in terms of threes. You know, like, they'll, they're going to be trading twos for threes. If we get into that scenario, they're. Their formula is, oh, we're just going to make you not score all the time and then it doesn't matter that we're scoring twos because you've had so many possessions, right. So I think we're going to know pretty early. Like, is Gonzaga having a day like they did against Utah where I believe they made nine consecutive threes and exceeded their season average in the first half of that round of 32 game, or are we in more of a situation where the shots aren't falling, legs are a little bit tired because of what they're being asked to do defensively against Texas. So that's really like the main thing I have my eye on is like, what does that three point disparity look like? And if Gonzaga can creep up just high enough, like if we can get to 10 threes, this has, you know, upset written all over it.

[Zena Kaeda]

Mm. One thing I, you know, in watching that Gonzaga Utah game that got them to the sweet 16, it is very apparent how balanced Gonzaga is in terms of production. You know, in watching that game, realizing that they had like five seniors all basically averaging doubled figures, literally, the twins trung, like both averaging 12 points each which I thought was just like, really, everything's matched up, really. That's amazing. But, you know, obviously Yvonne Jim stood out. She's gonna be something to handle for for Texas. But I'm just thinking about what you said at the very beginning. Texas is size. They can disrupt them very easily. And like you said, Gonzaga beats people from their ability to stop them from scoring and then happening. They happen to be scoring on their end, but they share the ball well. And there was actually, I was sitting here, I was watching their game with a friend, and they do a lot of outside play. They do a lot of four outside, one inside. And you have to be able to have guards and players that can do something off of those outside ball screens. And the Trong sisters particularly can Kaylee, I think more so than even Kay Lynn. But they can reject a screen, go inside and get you in foul trouble. They can, you know, create something. And that's something that I am looking towards for Texas and their ability to stay disciplined when it comes to Gonzaga going inside and, you know, switching things up, especially on those perimeter, outside screens, passing the ball, et cetera. So I'm very curious to see how Texas size can be help. A help for them in disrupting what Gonzaga does in that balance play. They've got all incredibly experienced players, so you're thinking about people that maybe they haven't won an NCAA tournament, but significantly more experienced than Texas is being able to be poised in the long run. So that's going to be a very interesting matchup for. For Texas to. To just be able to stay poised in the midst of a Gonzaga that doesn't look very rocked often from what I saw in the last few games that I've watched at the end of the. At the end of the season. Okay. All righty. They're going to take on Texas, 10pm Eastern, 7pm Pacific. That game will also be on ESPN. So those are the top four seeds in Portland four going to the Sweet 16. Things played out pretty as expected, but it wasn't easy for them to get there. Let's just be real, okay? Now let's go on to Portland three. Portland three, Portland three, Portland three. Man. So I had OSU, Cody McMahon and my girls. They let me down. But that's okay. Duke is moving on, and Duke has gone. They're going to go up against UConn. We're going to put them to the side real quick because we got to talk about Southern California and Baylor. Southern California. Coming into the tournament, juju Watkins did not have a Good conference tournament championship game. It was her supporting cast bat stepped up. And you're seeing now juju going off and the supporting cast going off and you're like, oh, oh, okay, okay, okay. They're kind of stacked. Lindsey Gottlieb has a squad over there. Mackenzie, Forbes, Rhea, Marshall, Caitlin Davis. They're all rolling. They're going like they're rolling together and they're having fun together. I don't know much about how Baylor is going to match up against this, and I will say about Baylor, there's one team that I'm just like, oh, you're here. Okay, that's great. Like, good job for like, that's amazing that you've made it this far. It's Baylor because going into the postseason, from the start of their season through, Baylor hasn't played a ton of teams. They haven't played a ton of top 25 or what you would call quad one teams. So I never, I didn't really get a chance to see them against the, the top level teams. The time that they played Oregon State, Oregon State wasn't who Oregon State is now in my opinion. Right. So I just feel like we haven't seen them really until now into the tournament, really have to go up against some, some serious competition. But this, this is going to be a test because like I said, Southern California is rolling. I feel like outside of South Carolina, I don't see anyone else that's like gelling and having fun out there. Like Southern California. They are, I, I, they are just so much fun to watch right now. And when things go wrong, they're not like, there's no bad body language with them. They're figuring it out from their coach to the people on the, on the court. I'm gonna have to lean on you again, Sabrina, because I don't know much about Baylor here. I don't know enough about Baylor, about how they're gonna match up against Southern California. What are your thoughts?

[Sabrina]

Well, you know, I hate, I hate to be a downer right away, but you look at Baylor's lineup and they have nobody in their rotation who is taller than six'one You've got Dariana Little Paige Bugs who does a great job on the glass, but she is six'one and the tallest player in the rotation. And then you look at Southern California and their starting lineup has one player shorter than six feet and Mackenzie Forbes, primary ball handlers, both six feet or taller. You've got Ram Marshall and Clarice Akinwafo, six, four, six, six centers, Caitlin Davis, Is another six footer, Taylor Bigby coming off the bench, I believe is also 6:1. Like this is just a very tall, very long team. And that I think is going to be an immediate problem for Taylor because, you know, they just. USC covers a lot of ground on defense. It's very good defensive team and just makes you feel small. And Baylor already is small. So that I think is going to be an immediate, immediate problem. And then we have the question of, well, who guards juju Watkins because Baylor has an excellent perimeter, perimeter defender in Sarah Andrews, but Sarah Andrews, and I hate to just berate the point of the height over and over again, but she's 56 and you put Sarah Andrews next to Judy Watkins and I don't think it's going to go that well for the Bears. So I'm just curious how their rotation is going to shake out to where they're going to have, you know, the appropriate amount of skill on the court, but then also be big enough to contain with what USC is doing. I hate to just like dismiss it out of hand, but like, I just don't see this going very well for Baylor. I think USC is playing really, really well. I think the only team that really gave them difficulty during the season is Utah because they could not figure out Alyssa Peelley for the life of them. And Alyssa's gone out of the tournament. And I'm looking at this path for them and, you know, we'll get to what an Elite eight matchup would look like later, you know, on a later show. But I, I think this is like my second best bet. If I were, you know, giving you like picks for the Sweet 69, I would say South Carolina is my best odds to make it to the Elite. Southern California is my second.

[Zena Kaeda]

Now what's so funny about that? We're both kind of like in the midst of like, I don't know. And again, I'm saying this, and I'm being honest here, I'm saying this because I haven't seen enough of Baylor and from what I have seen, yes, the height aspect does get called out. Drayun Edwards is like their best player, best scorer, really. And she's no longer in the starting lineup. Right. She's coming off the bench being a spark. Sure. What was interesting for me was when I looked up at on ESPN's matchup predictor, actually, you know what? You guess what it is. Have you seen it?

[Sabrina]

I have not. I have not looked at it.

[Zena Kaeda]

Okay, you guess what? America or whomever participated in this has predicted this matchup. In terms of percentage that USC will win versus percentage that Baylor will win.

[Sabrina]

I'm gonna say at least 80% picked USC.

[Zena Kaeda]

Girl. Girl. 56% chose. Yes, 56%. 44% chose Baylor. So there's something we might not be seeing.

[Sabrina]

So the thing is, like, throughout the season, it's not just that Baylor's small, it's that they struggle at the things you would expect a small team to struggle with. Like, they're rebounding, you know, like, they're. They give up a lot of points in the paint, right? Like, these are things that naturally follow when you have a team that is shorter than other teams. It's not like they're somehow overcompensating. Like, yeah, they're good at getting in the passing lanes when they can speed you up. That's great. But, like, USC is not a very high turnover team. You know, they have capable ball handlers. They're really good at getting into the paint. They've got excellent people on the glass. Like, I just think they're very well positioned to take advantage of Baylor's weaknesses. So, yeah, that 56 numbers, that is shocking to me.

[Zena Kaeda]

Isn't that crazy? I just. I was a little concerned. I was a little confused by that one. But all I will say is that does make me want to. I cannot wait to watch this game because to be that off makes me realize, okay, maybe they've got a secret sauce that I'm not seeing yet or maybe that, you know, I missed over the course of the regular season. But the way that USC is playing right now, I think that they are incredibly difficult to beat because you not only have to beat their actual skill, between juju Watkins being a prolific scorer, Mackenzie Forbes being one of the tallest people on the court, and being one of the best assist passers on that team and the best shooter. So you've got to find a way to get a hand in her face. But if her hand. If her face is a foot above yours and her arm is another one, I mean, what difference will it make? Type of thing. You know what I mean? And then you do have a good point, because Blackwell is a great rebounding guard, which is awesome. You love to see that. But that is not going to address the fact that Raya Marshall is as good, if not is better, you know, averaging, I think, two more rebounds than Blackwell is, and taller and more. Even more active, I think. And she's really good at the offensive putbacks. So, yeah, I can't wait to watch this game because I'm just Like, what have I missed? Baylor, we're not completely just, you know, discounting your abilities. We're just a little curious.

[Sabrina]

I'm a little concerned. I'm a little concerned.

[Zena Kaeda]

Okay, okay. That's fair. That's fair.

[Sabrina]

I mean, I could be wrong. I could. I did not have Baylor getting thus far in the tournament as is. So, you know, prove me wrong.

[Zena Kaeda]

I did not either. There we go. Exactly. Just make it a game. That's all I really want. Just make it a game. Okay, so Baylor, Southern California, they're going to be the very first game up on Saturday. Early game. It's gonna be 5:30pm on Saturday Eastern, 2:30pm Pacific. Okay. Then right after that, I'm excited for this matchup. It's gonna be UConn against Duke. And right now I'm a little torn because I would say now that OSU is out for Portland 3. I'm thinking I'm choosing UConn because Paige Beckers is a bucket. And it's, like, kind of scary how good of a bucket she is.

[Sabrina]

Oh, my God.

[Zena Kaeda]

How unrattled of a bucket she is, how unsweaty of a bucket she is. She just doesn't even look like she's working very hard. It's crazy. Yeah, UConn's different. And then Nica Mule, obviously being the one to facilitate a lot of that action and their freshies. I mean, Ashlyn Shade, baby girl, show up, like, way too show up.

[Sabrina]

Queen Queen. Ashlyn Shade.

[Zena Kaeda]

Ashlyn Shade. And then KK Arnold, too. KK Arnold has been hitting some big shots and doing some really great, like, things just in general, like, defensively, offensively, in general. So UConn, they look different. Not different than all season, but they're just looking real different in this region. But now with Duke, you want to talk about a team that's like, get it out the mud type of team. And if you don't know what get it out the mud means, it just means they're in the trenches. Folks like these people do the dirty, dirty work. They're not giving up. They're hard to beat. They're hard to put away. Every single game I've seen them play in this year, the number one that sticks out of my mind is that South Carolina game when South Carolina went to go play UNC and Duke in that one weekend. And I just feel like Kara Lawson has coached a level of tenacity, which it doesn't matter what talent is on that team, they're gonna be hard to put away. You know what I mean, but UConn also has that grit, and that's what I'm excited about, because both of them have shown that capability this year to not just go down without a fight. And I don't know. I don't know. I don't know if it's gonna be a. A factor of, like, I don't know who's gonna guard Paige.

[Sabrina]

Nobody guards Paige. That's just not what happens.

[Zena Kaeda]

That's a good point. That's a good point, sis.

[Ben]

That's.

[Sabrina]

You make everybody else beat you, right?

[Zena Kaeda]

Yeah. No, accurate. That's very accurate. It. Yeah, I'm. I'm excited for this one. And both teams like to run in transition. It's interesting. The ESPN matchup predictor is not as kind on this one. They're giving Duke 19% chance of winning. Okay.

[Sabrina]

Damn. Oof.

[Zena Kaeda]

I know. I know. But there's something about just how unsuspecting the Blue Devils have been this year that makes me feel good about the way they feel.

[Sabrina]

Something that doesn't make me feel good is just a history of having watched Duke play UConn over the course of my fandom. It has not gone well for the Blue Devils in their, you know, matchup history against UConn. They've played 16 games. UConn has won 13 of them, including the last 10. So it just. There's. There's no part of my memory that can, like, imagine a Duke victory. Just has not happened. There's no, like, pieces to access my personal memory of Duke playing well against Yukon. I'm not even talking about, like, playing well. I'm talking about. They just get their. Their behinds handed to them every time they play UConn. So, thankfully, these girls are much younger than I am and don't have this ridiculous history to have to.

[Zena Kaeda]

And you love to see that, too, right?

[Sabrina]

Like, Maya Moore just coming into Cameron Indoor and just, you know, throw. Making us look silly.

[Zena Kaeda]

Y'all, my head is in my hands. I'm just imagining. I just don't even know what it would have been like to watch Maya Moore walk through the doors. Like, do you want to go to the gym that day?

[Sabrina]

And these are teams like Duke, teams that included the likes of Jasmine Thomas and Chelsea Gray and future pros and, you know, Maya Moore's just coming in and making him look silly. But, yeah, I. I don't want to attach all of that burden of, you know, my tortured fandom to these Blue Devils because, like you said, they have a ton of athletes. They're super deep. You've got Reagan Richardson, you've got Ashland Jackson, you've got, you know, this post duo of Kennedy Brown and Camille Ems. Beau, you've got Delaney Thomas coming off the bench. Tana Mayer is really good at getting into the paint. There's a lot of options they can turn to. You know, I think depth is definitely in Duke's favor, and I think the overall athleticism is in Duke's favor. I just think that UConn is a little too disciplined at this stage. They've got. I mean, I. I keep coming back to this, and it's.

[Zena Kaeda]

It.

[Sabrina]

I don't know. I think I'm, like, overdoing it. But at the same time, I watch Paige Beckers, and just, like, you have to be perfect to beat her right now. Like, she is just on a mission. I've looked at her numbers since she started, you know, the conference tournament. Just 27 points at least every night. Super efficient. You know, she's shooting 57% from the fields. Like, it is just unreal what, you know, she is capable of. Individually, the fact that they only have six players, but they just don't get ahead of themselves. They don't get sped up. They create what they want on offense. Like, I'm very impressed with UConn's overall demeanor and discipline. And, like, yeah, you can say, oh, yeah, they got upset in this week, 16 last year. Like, that was a team without Paige Beckers. It is an entirely different team. She is on a different level than anybody else on the Huskies. You know, Gino said she's the best player in America. I'm not sure I agree with that. Like, there is that girl in Iowa, but in terms of this region, like, she's had a better season than juju Watkins. I think so. Like, she is the player to beat for me in Portland 3. And that's what's leading me, you know, towards UConn in this matchup.

[Zena Kaeda]

Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, not even just Gino saying that about Paige. There is a clip recently of Dawn Staley saying that Paige is the most elite player right now in basketball. Talking about how she. Her. Her shot selection doesn't miss. Like, she is incredibly patient and discipline the way you used it, too. Just disciplined in the way that she decides what she wants to put up. Her efficiency is, I think, another word that she used, and that's exactly right. Like, UConn's overall efficiency is great. They really do stick to their game plan. And even if they're a little disrupted by their own inability to make shots or their own inability to, you know, get things going. I very rarely feel like it's another team imposing themselves upon Yukon. It's like something that's going on within the Yukon camp that's causing something to not go well over the course of this season. The person I would want to come in and guard, Paige Beckers, she doesn't start with them. She comes off the bench. But I would switch up the scheme just because of how athletic she is and how pesty she is. Is Okonoma like Olucho Konawa, not. She is bouncy, springy. Like, every single thing she does is, like, sometimes, like, there's times that I'm like, is she gonna break? Like, her legs go different ways as she's, like, cutting and sprinting, sprinting and recovering on defense. And she. Her game is so great at just being able to make a basket and then immediately sprint back and get in front of the other team's best guard and stay in front of them. She's long. She keeps her hands up on defense. I feel like she's a good presence to have in front of Paige. Is she fast enough? Good question. Because Paige is. She's slippery and her hesitation is dangerous. So, yeah, I'm not. I don't. I don't know. I don't know. This is going to be a good one, too, like we said, because of the grit. And I also have a little bit. A little, Little, little horse in the fight from Duke, because Camilla Emsboe is a former Yale basketball player and is in her grad year at Duke. And I love Camilla, like, personally, so I just want her to do well in all things. So we shall see. It'll be a great game. They're having a good time this year, too, I think, exceeding expectations for their team. And so keep. Keep doing the thing you're doing. Duke and UConn just know you are poised where you're at. I feel like they're just comfortable. They're chilling. One thing, last thing I'll say on UConn is almost every interview, I feel like Paige has brought up the fact that last year she went back to her car and cried after they lost and were upset in the sweet 16. She's mentioned several times how much it bothered her that she could not be on the court with her team. And that is what I very much think is inspiring her. She's also, you know, speaks of her faith a lot. So I think that's obviously the number one thing. But that almost vengeance for not being able to Be on the court with her sisters, her teammates is a strong inspiration point for her. So very exciting to see what those two are gonna look like when they match up at 8pm Eastern on Saturday, 5pm Pacific. And that will be on ESPN. So ESPN carrying both of these for this weekend. So that is. That's Portland region. Of course, we're keeping our conversation to Portland, but the other games that are going on this weekend, Notre Dame's gonna take on Oregon State at 2:30pm Eastern on Friday, 11:30 Pacific, and then South Carolina is going to take on Indiana. I did appreciate coach Terry of Indiana's comments about how everyone in tournament other than South Carolina is an underdog. And I was like, good point. That's a great point. So South Carolina is going to go up against Indiana at 5pm Eastern, 2pm Pacific. All these games will be on ESPN or ABC for this weekend. So sweet 16 fun times, folks. Fun times. We are going to be back next week after this weekend. We're going to talk about the Elite eight. But before we go, Sabrina, I just wanna ask you, when you watch these games and, you know, you're sitting in the midst of just how the air of these games is, I don't know, I would imagine I've never been to a sweet 16. I've never been to a Final Four, but I imagine that the air is just like, rich with excitement, but maybe also tension. Like, what is it like when you sit there and you watch these games and the atmosphere around you?

[Sabrina]

That's a great question. It's really cold in the arenas. For some reason, I feel like I'm always just, like, trying to get another jacket. There is definitely a lot of that happening, a lot of air being pumped through. But, you know, I think it's just. It's really emotional, you know, like, every play gets heightened. Like someone picks up a foul that they didn't think you should have. And like, they're just so upset on the bench because maybe this is their last game. Maybe this is. And it's not even their last game. It's like their. Their team's last game. Like, this is, you know, even if most of your team is coming back, like, just the alchemy of what you've created in this specific season can never be replicated, right? So it's a certain chapter that's always coming to an end. So, like, that sense of finality is always hanging over this. And it's just like, it's. It's tough because you, you know, only one team can win at Any time. And it's just really emotional. And I'm just so impressed by their ability to continue to perform in these stakes. You know, when you see how much it means to them afterwards.

[Zena Kaeda]

Yeah. I'm thinking about the seniors that we've already said goodbye to in earlier rounds and just how. I mean, I teared up watching D'Asia Fair put her head down at the end of that game. I can imagine that that goes into it. I can imagine the families that are there that have grown to be families with each other over the course of the time that these teams have played together. That's. That's really interesting. Okay, well, I wish you luck this weekend. Being in the midst of that air and the richness of the competition. That's going to be at the Sweet sixteen in Portland again. We'll be at the Moda center, and I believe Portland is going to get to host the final four in 2030. So they're kind of getting a little bit of a taste of what they're going to get in a few years. But I'm excited. I will be parked in front of my couch as much as I can be this weekend. Be watching all the games. I hope you all will, too. Now, before Sabrina and I leave, Ben and Chantel actually sat down to talk about Albany. So this is an extra super long podcast, folks, but we just had to make sure that both portions of the country were properly covered. So I will toss it over to Ben and Chantel now to tell you about the Albany games that we just previewed. Ben, take it away.

[Ben]

We are here in Albany, New York, at MVP arena in downtown Albany on this Thursday. Oregon State, Notre Dame, Indiana and South Carolina have all done their media availabilities. The four other teams in Albany, lsu, ucla, Iowa and Colorado, will be speaking to reporters on Friday, with the first set of games also coming on Friday. And so, Shantel, now that we've heard from four teams and thought about all eight teams playing in this region, what was the first thing that kind of jumped out to you on Friday? Maybe we start with the number one overall seed, the South Carolina Gamecocks.

[Chantel]

Well, I think first things first, Champ did not make the press conference, which feels like a notable update for anyone who's been following along with South Carolina this year. That is obviously Don Staley's dog Champ. No, but I guess on a more serious note, I think the quote that sticks out for me the most from today is Indiana coach Terry Morin saying, all of us are underdogs. To South Carolina. Basically, the Question was posed to her. You know, how much do you talk to your team about this and that South Carolina is undefeated. They're the number one team. They've been the undeniable number one team since basketball tipped off this season. And she just said very plainly, everyone's the underdog to South Carolina. And so I think that is very much the feel right now. South Carolina feels as though it's on the. The brink of an undefeated season potentially in the history. That would mean, I believe, the 10th undefeated season in women's basketball history. It does feel like we're witnessing a potential march toward history in that way with South Carolina. Obviously, Donna saying, though, they're only focused on one game at a time, which listening to her talk about this team and her mentality with this group, I think that was also one of my big takeaways from today. Sort of how loose they are and how they've sort of loosened her up as well. And in coaching this team.

[Ben]

Absolutely, I agree with you. I mean, Dawn Staley, the South Carolina coach, and we should mention 5pm Eastern time, is when that game takes off. One of the things she talked about is how her team, she feels like, is clicking right now and, like, ready to go and that maybe there was a little bit of a lapse between the SEC tournament final, their championship game, and the start of the NCAA tournament. It seems like she did get on them during that period to kind of focus up. And she said that she reminded them that she knows what's coming down the pipeline and that she stressed to them what that. What that is. And that is the NCAA tournament. That is their first two games at home, and that is where they're at right now. That was definitely one of the takeaways that, you know, I think she very much is locked in and has her team, you know, locked in on this game. She really stressed that, like, the focus is Indiana. It is not the Elite Eight. It is not the Final Four. It is not the two games that have already happened, but to really be in the presence, and I think that was one of the things that jumped out to me. South Carolina all year has gotten out to these really fast starts. And I asked Mackenzie Holmes about it, and, you know, the big thing that she said to try and counter that is we can't get sped up. Like, we need to play at our speed. We can't, you know, turn the ball over. We can't miss shots and then not sprint back. And I think we're going to learn a lot about this game very early on, you know, dawn, she talked about how she expects. She cited her basketball knowledge that she would love a blowout, but she expects a close game. I guess we're going to see how true that ends up actually being. But that was another thing that I think jumped out, and I think it is the thing to watch for is can South Carolina get out to such an early start and blow this game open much like they did against North Carolina in their round of 32 game?

[Chantel]

That was another moment that stood out to me, was that, you know, with so many of these competitors, they have moments that just stick in their mind. Whether we're talking about Caitlin Clark, who can basically be like a Rolodex play by play version of any game, or Don Staley, who's been in the game for so long as a player and a coach. And she was talking about Indiana. These two teams played in 20, 19, 20. Indiana beat the Gamecocks in that game. And dawn said something along the lines of, I looked back at that box score recently, they outscored us 20 to 6. Then she paused and said, yikes. Which I just thought that was so sort of encompassing of what she must be feeling. You know, she. She is making sure that this team, despite the fact that they're undefeated, despite the fact that they were the number one overall seed in this tournament, they are not overlooking anyone. And I think I go back to this idea of them being really loose. I spent a lot of time talking to Brie hall about this and sort of what that loose mentality means for this team specifically on the floor. I think we see it, you know, in sort of Tessa Johnson does those interviews in the locker room with the team, and they're all having fun and laughing and joking and trying to dunk on Don. But I think where this really makes sense on the basketball court is I asked Bree, you know, how much does that translate to the court? How much more easily are you able to sort of get through the hard moments as a team or sort of put that stuff behind you that, you know, the turnover or the, you know, the shot that came too early. How much easier is it to put that stuff behind you because this team is so loose and because you flow so well together. And she said that's the biggest part for them is that the looseness of being off the court. Obviously, they lock in for these games, but they can kind of weather those stretches. You know, obviously, like you pointed out, they have those amazing starts, but any sort of stretches they hit in a game that might stumble up other Teams, she feels like because they are so loose, they're able to sort of weather those a little bit better.

[Ben]

Dawn didn't use the phrase they're like a goldfish. That is often the cliche or the analogy you hear in this context. But she did say to that point, Chantelle, they have short memories and her players only deal with the present. So I think that is a good way to put a wrap on it. Again, South Carolina, Indiana, they play at 5pm on Friday. Chantelle, quick prediction on that game.

[Chantel]

I think South Carolina wins this one. It'll be an unfortunate end for Mackenzie Holmes career, but she's got to be proud of what she's built in Bloomington with Terry Morin. But South Carolina's the better team here.

[Ben]

I think you've said it. We've spent a lot of time talking about South Carolina. They are a dominant team. Let's go to the early game on Friday. That's Oregon State, the three seed, against number two Notre Dame. That tips off at 2:30 Eastern here in Albany. What jumped out to you about either of those two teams? Media availabilities and how they looked on Thursday afternoon when we record this?

[Chantel]

Yeah, I think this is the game that maybe of the four that we will see over the next two days in Albany, I came in thinking, okay, I think Notre Dame has this one. And after being around the teams today and specifically standing next to Regan Beers in the locker room and sort of seeing her physical presence right next to me, I thought, okay, maybe the Notre Dame zone isn't going to be as effective against Oregon State as I initially thought. And just talking with those players both on background and just on the record about their plans for attacking that zone and what they want to do defensively, specifically against Hannah Hidalgo, I think I'm feeling more confident about the Beavers chances, specifically because I just think on the inside they have such an advantage with Beers. And I think they are very much sort of an overlooked team because they haven't had any games on national TV outside of the NCAA tournament. I should say people don't really know the Beavers. Talia von Olhofen said to me, you know, people don't even know how to pronounce our names because we haven't been on TV enough. And so I think they're sort of carrying this chip on their shoulders in the last year of the Pac 12 of like this amazing women's basketball conference which they've helped build, been a part of, been to the Final Four with. They've really been overlooked this season. And now they come into a game against a team like Notre Dame that everyone knows, everyone has seen, everyone's talking about Hannah Hidalgo. I think this could sort of be a giant slayer game.

[Ben]

And I think that is something that Scott Ruick, the coach of Oregon State, really relished and took a lot of pride in kind of being this overlooked team and trying to alert people to how good Oregon State is. You know, he talked about in his media availability today that he's always enjoyed helping someone, was the phrase he used. Who has not respected women's basketball, learn about women's basketball. And he said it usually takes just one game. And I followed up in the press conference on that. And I asked him, what's the one game you would cite to like, turn people on to how good Oregon State is? And he said, every single game just come out, just give us a chance. It doesn't matter. And I think he's right in a lot of ways. Like Oregon State has been really, really good this year. Now, I would cite some particular games. I think the UCLA game, you know, the. One of the best games of the year in the regular season all year long. I would throw that one as a teaching tape to anyone who wants to watch Oregon State. But I think Scott Rurick is right that this is a really good team. Reagan Beer is one of the most overlooked players in the entire country. She was on believe, you know, received some votes or was on one of our all American teams. Like she is that good one of the top players and what she can do physically. And that was something else that Neil Ivey talked a lot, talked some about today as well. Just like the physicality of controlling beers on the inside, limiting organ states. Three point shooting is another key for the Fighting Irish. I think those are two things that jump out to me. One other thing I would say, and you know, this is something I think we observed from being here. It felt like, and I think this is true, but maybe it's just anecdotal is that Notre Dame had the smallest locker room today and it almost was fitting because they play six or seven players and this is a team that is very injured and is very thin in terms of their roster depth. And so it was like, oh, they have this little corner. They had a ton of support staff outside their locker room and very few players in it during some of the press availabilities. That was just something else that jumped out because how could it not? And I think it's something we're going to see what impact depth plays Especially the Pacener name plays on Friday when two teams match up well.

[Chantel]

And I think again, it's a great point to make in terms of the lack of depth that the Irish have when you have a post player like Reagan who draws fouls and who teams opponents kind of have to foul her because she's just so dominant in there. Notre Dame can't do that. And in a zone, you know, you're thinking, okay, we'll probably follow less because it's less one on one necessarily. Maybe we'll trap in different ways. Whatever sort of Niel Ivey has in store, Notre Dame cannot allow anyone to get into foul trouble because Reagan is so good that it's like they already, I think, have the advantage inside. But if Natalia Marshall gets in vowel trouble, Becky Obinma, like, they are just so close to a world in which like Sonya Citron is guarding her. Like, it's just, you know, obviously Maddie Westfold would be there too, but it's just they're kind of skating on thin ice with how short their roster is. We've talked about it a lot with Yukon. I think the exact same thing is true with Notre Dame here that they just don't have the depth to take some risks that other teams might be able to take. And, you know, if their posts, if, you know, whoever is in, in the paint in that zone picks up a foul quick, Niel is going to have to change things around. And I'm curious to see exactly how Oregon State attacks that area early in order to sort of draw those fouls.

[Ben]

I would just say as a counter, you know, I think this game will come down to who controls the inside and pace and what, you know, how is Notre Dame able from their zone to impact and disrupt the game? And I think I made the point on our podcast earlier this week that, you know, Hannah Hidalgo averages seven and a half fast break points per game this season. Oregon State as A team averages 5.4. Right, right. So this is in Notre Dame, a team led by Hidalgo that likes to get out and run and push. And if they're able to, who create turnovers and really impact Oregon State and what they want to do offensively, that's a really good sign. Of course they need to stay out of foul trouble to do so, but, you know, if they can win that battle, they have a really good chance of winning.

[Chantel]

I guess certainly a clash of styles.

[Ben]

I think we're going to see as we were going to see, I guess, prediction on this one.

[Chantel]

Right. So after all of that, I'm actually, you know, I think someone had given us a little bit of a hard time when we all wrote up our predictions for these. Sweet.

[Ben]

I actually gave us a hard.

[Chantel]

Was it you? Yeah, clearly I can tell how much I've slept. You know, we picked the favorites and I think every game. So I'm gonna go here and say I like the Beavers in this one. I don't think it'll be a blowout by any means. I think it could be really close late. I'm gonna say Oregon State by 3 to 5. A close nail biter of a game.

[Ben]

I went with Notre Dame on the prick on the predictions picks that we made earlier this week. So I will. While you made a very convincing case and I think there's a lot of reasons as we mapped out to pick the Beavers and like them. I picked Notre Dame earlier this week. It's been two days. We haven't seen anything on court tangiblely to change that. So I'm going to stick with that prediction. Let's turn to Saturday's games and now we haven't heard from those teams. They will address reporters on Friday morning here in Albany. Those two games, number three, LSU, number two UCLA. They play at 1 o'clock on Saturday and then Colorado and Iowa at 330. I guess let's start with LSU, UCLA. What kind of jumps out to you in that matchup? What do you think will be the key to it and how do you see it kind of playing out?

[Chantel]

I think the paint battle, I mean, this is another one where I think so much of the game will be determined by who can own the glass and whether that's Angel Reese and Anissa Morrow against Lauren Betts. I think that's just going to be a really, you know, it's just that can swing the game so much there, just how that happens. And again, another game where fouling could really come into play in terms of, you know, LSU's bench isn't super, super deep. I would say UCLA's is a little bit deeper. And so I think that's, that's where I'm going to have my eyes early. And I think both Kim Mulkey and Corey Close are going to look to attack that area early, knowing that if you can get Bets into foul trouble, if you can get Rhys and Morrow into foul trouble, it can swing the game pretty significantly.

[Ben]

I do think depth is something that definitely does favor the Bruins. I mean this is a team that does play nine or 10 deep and has especially on the wings, you know, Lauren Betts is, you know, such a centerpiece of what they do on both ends, and she does a fantastic job not only scoring around the rim at an elite level, and she shoots more than 70% around the rim, but she blocks shots at a top level without fouling, which is really hard to do, especially for a young player. They don't have a ton of, like, backup true centers behind her like that. And so, you know, she is fantastic in that way. But they do have some depth around their front court and I think on the wings. And so I do think they are a little bit better suited if they do get into foul trouble than LSU is. I guess. One thing that I'd be curious for you, and we will talk to these people tomorrow, like, what are you most curious to ask or hear what people have to say, you know, tomorrow when they start to address reporters? What are you looking at or thinking about most?

[Chantel]

This is going to sound kind of weird, but I do think there's something to be said about the time zone travel that UCLA had to make. There's not a longer flight in the country that I think you can make from Southern California to upstate New York, getting to Albany, and so that's a long flight. How are they feeling? What are their bodies feeling like? Certainly less of an adjustment, especially when you think about the time zones traveled to Baton Rouge, which is on central time and still a significant flight. I'm sure three hours, but not the six to six and a half that the Bruins underwent. And so I think that'll be interesting. I'm curious to ask Corey if they did something specifically for the Bruins to help their bodies adjust more quickly, or if they had the players change the hours they were sleeping before they left. You know, we sort of see teams go to very varying lengths during the tournament, and so I'm curious to see on that end what they're feeling on the LSU side. You know, I think this is just a team that's so motivated. Like, they win the national title last year, they win the transfer portal last year, and they come into this year, and Angel Re specifically, and Anissa and Haley are sort of saying, like, you know, people doubt us. And Kim Mulkey saying, you know, everyone doubts us. And we're all looking around in the media room saying, who exactly is doubting you guys? But I think that is very much. It's such a motivating factor for that team and for those players. They want to feel that chip on their shoulder. And I think that's. That's why a lot of those players thrive in that environment. And so, you know, whoever it is that is saying these things, it's not been very many people in the media, I don't think, because again, the reigning national champs that won the transfer portal, they've obviously had an up and down season. And so I think they are looking for the postseason to catch that fire that they did last year. But yeah, I think just sort of seeing overall what they're thinking and feeling, where their motivation level stands. What about you?

[Ben]

And that is something, you know, Tim Holpy, after their first game against Rice, which they squeaked by by 10 points, they had 24 turnovers. That is their season high. She called it an awful performance multiple times right. On ESPN's broadcast before elaborating on that in her post game comments. And so, you know, this is a team that I think finds a lot of fire from, as you said, the doubters, the haters. They find motivation in that. The question is, you know, when they play the games, like, how do they really match up with the person across from them? I think that kind of fire only gets you so far. Far, you know, a really, really fascinating game because of course, if LSU wins and Iowa wins, it sets up a rematch of the national championship from last year.

[Chantel]

I also just want to say that we were talking about this in the media room before we came down to record this podcast, but this is the section in Albany that just sort of feels insane to me. You know, the fact that UCLA, LSU is a Sweet 16 game feels like something that should not have happened. I'm just very confused by this. We'll be sitting down watching this game in Albany and in my head I think there's going to be moments when I'm thinking, are we in Cleveland? Is this the Final Four? Like, what's going on right now? But the fact that we have this matchup specifically in Albany for the Sweet 16, I still haven't quite gotten over.

[Ben]

That because that is our undercard. And it really, as you're saying, does not feel like it should be the undercard. It shouldn't be the undercard if it was played at the Final Four and it probably shouldn't be if it was played on the, this Saturday on March 30th.

[Chantel]

And yet here we are.

[Ben]

Here we are. What is your, what is your prediction on that game?

[Chantel]

I think LSU wins this one. I think they're motivated. I think, like you said, it's like proving the doubters and the haters wrong. I do think this is the team. I think UCLA is one year away from being in the Final Four with a different path this year. I think they would have made it, but I think they're about one year away from being a Final Four team.

[Ben]

LSU enters as the favorite, but I will say UCLA was my title pick heading into into this tournament and so.

[Chantel]

I would be changing course now, changing.

[Ben]

Course heading into the sweet 16. That brings to our final game here in Albany, at least in the Sweet 16 round. That is at 3:30, as I mentioned, Colorado against Iowa, the number one seed, Caitlin Clark and everybody else around her, her star of Hawkeyes. How do you see this one playing out? What are you most interested to learn on Friday?

[Chantel]

Well, like you said, it'll be a rematch of last year. So I think the level of familiarity on this team is there. I think even one of the things that stands out from being in Iowa City this past weekend during Iowa's first and second round game, someone asked Caitlin about playing Colorado again. And already, you know, she knew what was going on. She could break down a little bit of the game. And she said also they got a transfer in the, they got a transfer from Michigan who we know pretty well, like she was already breaking things down, knew about Matty Nolan, like already had. Clearly she's someone who watches a ton of basketball but clearly knew about Colorado this year. So, you know, it's going to be the same thing that we've said all year about Iowa. How does Caitlin Clark show up, but also how does everyone else around her show up? Can they stay out of foul trouble? They've shown so far that they can weather, you know, the slumps that Caitlin has had, whether that's in the Big Ten tournament, whether that's in the first two rounds. I think West Virginia and the physical defense, they brought that pressure, that full court press that maybe gave teams like Colorado, which can similarly execute a defense that brings a lot of physical pressure. I would say maybe it gave them a little bit of an insight into how to slow her down or sort of get her to be off her game. And Lisa Bluder has said it before, you might keep Caitlin down for a quarter or two, but you're not going to keep her down for four. And I think, I think a lot of coaches go into games against Iowa saying exactly how long can we keep Caitlin down? And maybe if you can get to 28, 29 minutes, is that enough? Sometimes not. But if Colorado could do that, you know, they could sort of really tilt the scales here. What are you watching in this game?

[Ben]

I mean, I think the first thing is that Colorado, from their perspective, will not be phased. I don't expect them to be rattled. I do think there's so much value in just like knowing what the Caitlin Clark experience is like. What does it sound like in a big arena when she hits a logo 3? What do we need to do when that happens? Because as coaches have told us all year, that is going to happen. She's going to make great plays, she's going to make great shots. And how do you respond when that happens? And we see a lot of teams struggle to do that. I do think there's a lot to be gained from having gone through this last year in the Sweet 16 when she went on a big run in that third quarter quarter. So I think that's the first thing I would start with. The second thing, Colorado is an experienced team, right? You know, they're bigs. Their guards, Jalen Shiraj played really well last year. Free to Foreman as well. They had a lot of foul trouble. When Colorado and Iowa last played in the Sweet 16 last year, that was really the thing that did Colorado win that they couldn't be as aggressive defensively because of the foul trouble they had. I'm looking at it. Colorado actually led at halftime of that game last year, and it wasn't until the third quarter that Iowa kind of exploded. They had a ton of success on the offensive glass. Aaron At Bonle and Quay Miller both had four offensive rebounds each. There's no reason to suggest or to think that they won't be able to have a similar impact on the offensive glass as they did a season ago. So I would expect big nights from them, especially with Monica Sonano obviously no longer being there for Iowa, it's a lot more on Hannah Stolke's shoulders. And so if Colorado is able to control the front court and control around the basket, that's a huge advantage. And I do also think going back to that point, Jaylen Sherrod was kind of the primary defender who opened on Caitlin Clark. She is someone who, when we talk to a lot of WNBA GMs in recent weeks, she's someone who gets a lot of interest and is highly regarded for her toughness. What she brings aggressively on the defensive end of the floor. She's not going to be phased by going up against Caitlin Clark. So I think Colorado has a really good chance, frankly, to pull off an upset. I expect a crowd that is fully enthused for the Iowa Hawkeyes, though I do think there's going to be some, some interesting dynamics Potentially at play. Does LSU win? Do their fans stick around? Do they then start to get become Colorado Buffalo fans because they don't want to play Iowa? Do they root for Iowa? Like there could be some fun kind of fan gamesmanship. We'll see who everyone starts to root for. But I think Colorado has a really good chance to pull off this upset. It will just be interesting to see again how these two teams play off and how they defend Caitlin Clark.

[Chantel]

I think what, you know where this matchup could really come down and Sabrina is going to love that. I'm bringing up three to four men right now because Iowa so far through the NCAA tournament has not shot the ball super well from beyond the arc against West Virginia, players not named Caitlin Clark went 0 of 17. When you look at Kate Martin, Gabby Marshall and Cynthia falter, they've gone 6 of 22 in the last two games. Iowa needs those players to step up and if they continue shooting at a clip around like 24% outside of Caitlin Clark, that's not a great sign when you do have someone like Matty Nolan, like Frida Foreman, who can really catch fire from, from beyond the arc. And so I think, you know, this will be, it's going to be an amazing matchup. I think this might be one of the games that I'm most excited to see just because of sort of how the coaches will be able to play chess against one of another because of the familiarity there. And so this, I think every player is going to bring their A game. The question is how does that translate exactly? Can the players hit the shots they need to hit? And I think this is a game that the three point line is really going to play such a huge part in.

[Ben]

I would say three point line. That is the kind of thing that normally you would think favors the Iowa Hawkeyes. I actually heading into this tournament, I had Kansas State beating Iowa in this round. Obviously Colorado pulls off the upset over Kansas State because of their defense allowing just 15 points in the second half of that round of 32 game. But if we're asking a prediction on this one, I think Iowa gets through, Colorado through past them in the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive year and we get kind of this thrilling elite eight matchup come Monday. That is going to be one that people I think will remember for a very long time. So I have Iowa advancing. Chantelle, what about you? Who do you have advancing?

[Chantel]

I agree with you on this one. I think Colorado keeps it close. I think closer than they did a season ago when they lost by 10 and honestly, I think Colorado is going to jump out to the lead. I think this is going to be a game where Iowa has to dig in and come back from behind and so close until the end. But I think Iowa wins this one by, you know, six or seven points.

[Ben]

I think I will speak for us both to say we are both super excited. So much to look forward to. I think we're going to be in for four great games, two on Friday, two on Saturday. That will set up a thrilling elite eight with should set up some more really great games. And you know, there's so much star power, there's so many great coaches, a ton of great fan bases here in Albany and we feel lucky to be here. I think there's going to be a ton of stories, a ton of news, so be sure to follow us from Albany. Our colleague Nicole Auerbach has a ton more as well. She's here as well, contributing with us. So plenty of fun to come in Albany. Tune in on Friday afternoon, Friday evening, Saturday afternoon. It should be a very fun weekend from here in New York State's capital.

[Zena Kaeda]

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[Ben]

Hey, folks, it's Marc Maron from WTF. It's been more than 15 years now, and I'm still talking to all kinds.

[Zena Kaeda]

Of people in my garage every week.

[Ben]

Sometimes it's Bill Burr, sometimes it's Ariana Grande. She just looks at me because she's.

[Zena Kaeda]

Always going like, dad, it's not that big a deal.

[Shopify Speaker]

Yeah.

[Zena Kaeda]

I go, sorry, I lost my temper. I go, I still love you. You know, Daddy has issues.

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Are you afraid of it?

[Zena Kaeda]

Of death?

[Chantel]

Well, I don't.

[Ben]

I think about it all the time.

[Zena Kaeda]

How are we here already?

[Ben]

Listen to WTF with Marc Maron twice a week on your favorite podcast app. Or get more WTF with a WTF plus subscription. Just go to wtfpod.com and click on WTF.

[Sabrina]

Acast helps creators launch, grow, and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com.