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Sabrina Merchant
Hello everyone and welcome to no Off Season presented by Massmutual. I'm Zena Caida.
Chantel Jennings
And I'm Sabrina Merchant.
Sabrina Merchant
And today. Today is a special day folks, because we are here. We are putting our dancing shoes on. March Madness is upon us. Sabrina. Can you believe it?
Chantel Jennings
I'm so excited. Today was so much fun. Xena. I mean too Many basketball things going on. First of all, I want to just issue a little Stop it. To the WNBA for issuing trade news on today of all days, Selection Sunday, but literally focus on college basketball.
Sabrina Merchant
We will round out to the Natasha Cloud New York Liberty trade on another episode tonight. Tonight is about the NCAA and yeah, the fact that the NBA unrivaled, the WNBA wanted to get in on the action. And then, of course, election Sunday for women's basketball was just insane. But we're happy, we're excited. We've got a lot to get into today. The bracket just dropped like a couple of hours ago. I know you guys are hearing this on Monday, but we are recording in the late hours. Okay. This is why we've got our skin care on. We look good. All right. We are literally about to go to sleep very soon after this. But before that, we're gonna break this all down. The seatings, the snubs, the shape of it all. And then after Sabrina and I talked, Chantelle Jennings is going to join and she's going to give us her take on all the best picks. Get a full bracket breakdown from Chantelle and then we'll get some early thoughts from Sabrina on what to watch for in terms of surprises. Cinderella picks, you know, we love those and that kind of thing. So you may have noticed. New name, fresh sound. We've been warning you, if you haven't been paying attention. We've been warning you, but yes, definitely excited because the athletic women's basketball show is now a third officially, no off season because that's what women's basketball does year round, baby. That's how we roll. Okay, so if you're already subscribed, we got you covered. If you're new here, hit the follow button. You can stay up to date with us. Also, we've got a lot of good stuff coming up. Check out our brand new YouTube channel. You'll be seeing our mugs way often. So, Sabrina, we're gonna have to be super moisturized for all of our shows now because we're gonna keep sharing videos, including full episodes of no off season. Okay, we're done with all that. Let's get into the big dance. Sabrina. The bracket has arrived and we finally got our number one seeds. Ucla, USC being the Southern California, usc, South Carolina and Texas. What are your thoughts on those?
Chantel Jennings
It's exactly what I predicted. I thought that UCLA was going to be the number one overall seed. Despite what other prognosticators may have said, I think it was pretty clear that the Bruins deserved it. Having lost to one team all season and then the other three number one seeds all made sense to me just based on the collection of their high profile wins, not too many bad losses, and their strength of schedule, which I think is what demoted UConn to a number two seed compared to the rest of them, even though UConn had defeated South Carolina by some convincing margin earlier in the year.
Sabrina Merchant
You know, I thought that was really interesting. I took actually notes because I'm a nerd during the Selection Sunday episode and you know, of course thoughts about the UConn potential snub, et cetera, was interesting. I also thought, you know, the Notre Dame decision not to put them in a number two seed, of course I don't think they were deserving of a number one seed, especially after the way everyone kind of laid out the rest of the season, but also the actual core of their seasons between ucla, usc, South Carolina and Texas. But I thought that they did a great job of explaining why UConn and Notre Dame, you know, fell in their standings overall. But we also got to talk about the obvious topic on the other end of the scale. Not the snubs at the top, but the bubble snubs. So this isn't something that the NCAA like bracket committee comes out and says selection committee comes out and says this is who was stubbed, but we know who didn't make it. So Sabrina, share with us who was snubbed?
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, so you can kind of read into who the snubs were based on who the number one seeds are in the nit, which is, you know, the tournament of the teams that did not make the NCAA tournament. And the number one seeds there are Virginia Tech, Colorado, James Madison and Saint Joseph's And Virginia Tech is actually the one team that the chairperson of the NCAA selection committee said was the first team out. So you know, we've been talking about all of the potential mid majors who had a chance to make this tournament like the three bit Ivy, which did actually end up happening. And I'm sure we'll get to that. But Virginia Tech to me is the most obvious casualty, so to speak, of that three bit iv. Because you know, the committee said that their losses at the end of the season prevented them from getting in as opposed to Harvard, Princeton and Columbia. Or I should say Princeton and Columbia because Harvard got the automatic bid out of the Ivy League.
Sabrina Merchant
Right after winning a great performance in the conference tournament. I am wearing a Yale sweatshirt to represent for the Ivy League, although Yale.
Chantel Jennings
I'm wearing a Duke shirt and Duke sweats. Okay. Yeah, you got a double Selection Sunday going on.
Sabrina Merchant
Wow. I mean, obviously Duke is one of those teams that we're going to get into. This could be a surprising kind of contender, especially the way that they closed the season. And I think that that was like one of the things that I thought was really interesting when the president of the selection committee was talking about, you know, I'm going to bring up Notre Dame, but specifically about this term she called the interaction effect. Because I'm wondering if this also applied to. To Virginia Tech with some of the losses that they had towards the end of the season, but then also how the teams that they didn't beat or also teams that they hadn't beat over the course of the year had performed against others. Like one. Can you explain more about that interaction effect and like what that means? And then also, do you think some of these teams that were snubbed in the bubble had that also applied to them?
Chantel Jennings
Yeah. So I think what Dorito Dawkins meant about the interaction effect was it wasn't just the performance of one team, it was the other teams around them that elevated their case, you know, at the expense of the other team. So in the case of Notre Dame, which fell to a three seed, it wasn't so much that they lost, you know, three of their last five games. It was also that TCU goes on to win the Big 12 tournament and Duke goes on to win the ACC tournament and NC State picks up another big win in the semifinals against North Carolina of the ACC tournament. Right. So it's all of these other things that are happening in combination with Notre Dame going on this little bit of a free fall at the end of the season with the bubble. I think a similar thing happened because you look at Virginia Tech and they lost four out of their last six games, you know, including game to Boston College, which is not in the tournament field, and Stanford, which is not in the tournament field, where you look at Princeton and Columbia both winning games towards the end of their year of the Ivy League season in Columbia, you know, getting to the final of that Ivy League tournament. So I'm honestly a little confused though, because if we're relying on recency bias when you're talking about Virginia Tech, because like I look at Virginia Tech and I look at a team that beat Cal during the regular season, that beat Louisville during the regular season, that beat Georgia Tech, those are three wins against NCAA tournament teams. And I look at Princeton and Columbia's resumes and they do not have that many wins against other NCAA tournament teams. So to rely on the recency for, you know, the end of the field. But then you look at, let's say UConn, which ended the season on an absolute heater, right? Including that 29 point win over South Carolina in February. But they get, you know, below some of the other one seeds. That lack of consistency is a little confusing to me.
Sabrina Merchant
I'm happy you explained the interaction effect because I was interpreting it as whoever you've beaten or whoever you lost to, how did they do? As opposed to who else is in the conversation with you for the position you could be in and how did they perform? And so I thought, I'm looking at Virginia Tech and I'm looking at that cow win, I'm looking at the Louisville win and I'm looking at, oh, you know, they're in the competition, they're in the tournament. And so this should help your case. But no, that makes sense when it comes to, like your peers in that category. How do they perform? I also took a note about, you know, the South Carolina aspect because the selection committee said that, you know, they were looking at competitive in losses being like, how competitive were you in your losses, aka your margin of loss. And the 29 point to UConn, like the 29 point loss to UConn is what caused SC to not get the number one overall seed over UCLA, but to still get a number one seed overall. And I'm like, I know UConn is like, what the hell? How, how really you use that to basically not give South Carolina the number one overall, but it doesn't help us in getting a number one period. Like what? I could make sense of that.
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, I think there's, you know, there's no one way to make all of the decisions. Right, sure.
Sabrina Merchant
Of course.
Chantel Jennings
You look at the teams that got the number one seeds. Strength of schedule, to me seems like the obvious differentiator between those four teams in UConn. Like they played in the Big Ten in the SEC competitive games on a night to night basis where UConn kind of, you know, gets to warm up for those games against Tennessee and South Carolina.
Sabrina Merchant
Competitive.
Chantel Jennings
It's not that competitive.
Sabrina Merchant
No.
Chantel Jennings
Right. It is not a Power 4 conference. Let's call a spade a spade. Right. So like, that is like the obvious differentiating factor there. But then you think about Virginia Tech versus the Ivy League. And I would argue that the ACC is a much tougher conference than the Ivy League. And for Virginia Tech to pick up, you know, nine wins in the ACC and 18 wins overall should be regarded more highly than what those three Ivy League teams are able to do one another. And like, I struggle with saying that, like, Princeton got all of these NCAA Tournament wins because they beat Harvard twice. But it's like, I don't know, like, if we're all just beating up on each other, like, is it the same thing as.
Sabrina Merchant
Right, right. And that's the truth, like, about the fact that Harvard was ranked throughout the year helped these Ivy Leagues. Right. Cause when else would they would have had the opportunity to beat a top 100 net ranking team as consistently as, you know, Columbia or Princeton? So I'm sure there's a lot of teams out there right now that are looking at this selection committee like you're the ops. Like you're, you're the ops because you looked at my schedule and you did not appreciate these wins or these particular, you know, setups. But outside of Virginia Tech, when you look at the people that are on the, on the bubble that were now at the top of the nit, anyone else stand out for you? James Madison.
Chantel Jennings
I mean, you feel guilty for James Madison because he did so well during the regular season, then lost during the conference tournament, which denies them the automatic bid. And like, that's, that's like the thing with automatic qualifying week.
Sabrina Merchant
Right.
Chantel Jennings
Like, if you're in a conference where, like the Sun Belt, where you're not going to pick up a lot of quality wins over the course of the regular season.
Sabrina Merchant
Yep.
Chantel Jennings
You got to do something to distinguish yourself during non con. And unfortunately, James Madison was unable to do that. Right. Like, they played Texas, NC State, weren't exactly competitive in either of those games. They don't have a win against any NCAA tournament team this year. So, like, I get it, like, it sucks for James Madison. What a run for the Arkansas State Red Wolves. So, like, first NCAA tournament bid.
Sabrina Merchant
So cool.
Chantel Jennings
I had such a fun time watching that Sunbelt game. But I think what gives so much meaning to this week right before we get into the NCAA tournament? Because so many of these teams face it, they're not really competing for a national championship. Right. They're competing for a chance to get into the tournament. And that's what makes that week matter. Right. That's what you have to play for. And I think, you know, there's a lot of pros and cons about the system, but I like that it, you know, gives us this excitement all the way through March. Right. It doesn't just start on March 21st. All through March, we're playing meaningful, meaningful games. And I think that's what the selection committee was, you know, trying to show. Yeah.
Sabrina Merchant
There's true validity to March Madness. And it is not when the tournament starts, it's. Or the NCAA tournament. It is absolutely when those conference tournaments start. Because the amount of close games, you know, in the NBA, it's called clutch games. I don't know. Do women's NCAA games call them clutch games, too?
Chantel Jennings
It's not a stat by the committee. So.
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, right. I'm like, but anyways, a clutch game, last five minutes, last two minutes, games just being decided in that very similar crunch time. I was curious about what your thoughts were about usc, ucla, Texas, South Carolina. Holly Rowe, on the Selection Sunday show asked the president of the selection committee about some people wanting differentiation. Right. These teams have all played against each other throughout the year several times. And the question of, like, is this gonna be competitive? We get to see them play again. And I love the fact that, you know, she came back and said, yeah, this is gonna be great competition. There's also six new teams in the tournament this year, so there's going to be competition all up and down. We've seen the parody all this season, but what'd you make of, like, you know, these four teams being at the top and knowing the stats. I wrote this down, too. The top three seeds are 359 and one in the round of 64. The only loss, 359 and one. The only loss was when Harvard beat Stanford in 1998.
Chantel Jennings
Allison Feaster.
Sabrina Merchant
Allison Feaster, that's right. Sarah Strong's mother. For those of you that don't know of UConn, Allison Feaster, in Harvard, the number one seed has won 11 of the last 12 NCAA tournaments. And the top three seeds, one of them, have won all 42 titles in the history of this tournament. So you're looking at these top four or number one seeds, and of course, that includes the twos and the threes. But you're looking at these four that have already played each other and have opportunity to scout against each other, know each other pretty well. Is it going to still be competitive to you?
Chantel Jennings
Well, just real quick before we get to that, you said 11 of the last 12 have been number one seats, right? You know who the missing one is, right?
Sabrina Merchant
Oh, yes. Number one seats have been 11 of the last 12. South Carolina.
Chantel Jennings
No, it was LSU when Angel Reese.
Sabrina Merchant
Said, oh, my gosh, you're right.
Chantel Jennings
Herself, Right?
Sabrina Merchant
Oh, my gosh, you're absolutely right. I was thinking it was when. No, no, no, no, you're absolutely right. Because South Carolina went on to win against Indiana. They were number. Yeah, okay, never mind. I'm thinking all wrong. Yes. Lsu. That's crazy.
Chantel Jennings
A number three seed again this year for anyone who's wondering. But it's a good number for lsu. Yeah. Okay, so back to your question about if the regionals go. Hold to chalk. We will get USC vs UCLA for the fourth time in the Final Four, and we will get Texas vs. South Carolina for the fourth time in the Final Four. And I don't know about you, four. Four is too many to me. I don't need that many games between the same two teams. And I think about Dawn Staley saying that she felt disrespected that they were not the number one overall seed and Lindsey Gottlieb saying she felt disrespected that they were the fourth number one seed. And if we just tweaked a little, you know, maybe matched up the scs with one another and you see LA and Texas on the other side could have avoided all that.
Sabrina Merchant
That's a good point.
Chantel Jennings
I don't love teams playing each other for four times. I really hope that doesn't happen. I understand number ones are most likely to make it to the Final Four. I think there are a couple pads that are easier than the others we'll get to. But to me, I would have put the Trojans ahead of the Longhorns. So you have USC as the third number one, and then Texas as the fourth just because of the way Texas lost in that SEC title game. I think should have put the Trojans ahead of them. But I understand. I think the logic of putting USC fourth is fine. It just leads to this outcome that I'm really not a fan of. And I know that the point of the bracket is not to look ahead that far, but I do think that there are some matchups we should try to avoid and this scenario is one of them.
Sabrina Merchant
Well, it is actually hilarious how that simple tweak could have fixed a lot of these issues. And I think it was a really fair question by Holly Rowe because I think a lot of us were thinking it. But now that actually leads me to the perfectly into when you're looking at these different brackets, of course we're looking at Spokane 1, then going over Birmingham 2, going down to Birmingham 3, and then over to Spokane 4. Which one do you think is the bracket of death? Are you seeing any sections or regions that are super competitive? And I'm going to just cough. Cough to the brands that you're wearing right now on your Sweatshirt and sweatpants. That's where I'm leaning. But I want to know what your thoughts are in terms of death brackets.
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, I mean, Birmingham two sticks out to me a little bit. Mostly because again, I don't love Duke and UNC playing each other in the Sweet sixteen. That is too early. It's too early for teams that have played each other this many times during the regular season.
Sabrina Merchant
Right.
Chantel Jennings
I understand mega conferences put us in this impossible situation where teams have to face each other earlier than expected, but I think only eight ACC teams made it, so you could wait till the Elite 8 for any of them to face each other. Personal opinion, I realize it was not accepted in this particular instance, but yeah, Birmingham two is interesting. I mentioned this on the live vlog, but you know Duke had that ACC tournament run where they avenged all of their ACC losses. Right.
Sabrina Merchant
Which is so rare for us. And be like, you thought you knew us. We're coming back around.
Chantel Jennings
So they avenged all those losses earlier. Like their second to last game in the regular season, they beat North Carolina, which avenged an earlier loss to them. Right. So four of their last five games were basically get back games.
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah.
Chantel Jennings
Who's one team Duke lost to again during the regular season? South Carolina. So you got to believe that Carol Lawson has a better idea for how to play the Gamecocks this time around if they can get to the Elite Eight, which again, getting past North Carolina, no small feat. So that's a matchup. I really like Birmingham 3. It's really interesting to me. You know, kudos to the committee for once again putting us on a Haley Van Lith vs. Louisville Collision Course if Louisville can get there this time.
Sabrina Merchant
Right, right, right, right, right.
Chantel Jennings
Louisville lost to Middle Tennessee last year, so they didn't get to play LSU. But Louisville's a 7 this year and TCU is a 2. So they could play in the second round if both teams were to win their first round games, which admittedly I feel like we should all be rooting for because that would be a lot of fun. But I really think like the bracket to look out for is Spokane 4, because that's where you have UConn and USC, who I think if you had put them in separate brackets, I would have picked both of them to make the Final Four, regardless of who else was in their regions. Again, regardless of who was in their regions, I would put both of them to be in the Final Four and they just both can't because they have to play each other to get there. So that sticks out the most. I think I mentioned my love for Staley Hurd and Oklahoma State earlier. I really like that team. Playing Yukon in the second round is going to suck for them, but good luck.
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I was just going to say Kentucky. I'm like, as you're speaking, Sabrina, I'm literally looking down this list and I'm like, whoa. Oklahoma, Kentucky, like, I might take it back. I thought I was looking at Birmingham, too, But I think Spokane 4 is the one that's a tough one. Especially even Iowa. That kind of was heating up towards in their tournament as well.
Chantel Jennings
The only other team to beat USC this year other than ucla, that's Iowa and Cal.
Sabrina Merchant
What am I doing?
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, and it's like a relatively local game for Cal, too. Right. You can. You can bring people down to Southern California, pack the Galen Center a little bit. It's not that challenging.
Sabrina Merchant
And the Cal Bears travel well.
Chantel Jennings
Yeah. There's no bracket that stands out to me. Like, you know, Albany two last year with Iowa, lsu, ucla, all of that. That was, you know, bracket of death in and of itself.
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah.
Chantel Jennings
But of the four regions we have here, I think Spokane 4 is the one that sticks out to me the most. Not just because of the top seeds, which I do think are the best top seeds of any of the four regions, but that depth is something else, especially because our Chantel Jennings says that Aoka Lee is practicing this week. So good luck to anyone facing Kansas State.
Sabrina Merchant
Ooh. Yeah. Originally I was thinking, I was like, you know, Maryland looking good with Vanderbilt. Also, like Duke, UNC, Birmingham 2 seems packed, but I don't think anyone's touching Spokane. Like, the fact that Oklahoma and. I mean, you know what? Let me not speculate. I have no idea what's going to happen, but this is going to be tough. Okay. All right. This is good. This is exactly what we need to hear. Last but not least, before we get some thoughts from Chantel, any matchups that you are, like, darting your eyes directly to and you cannot wait to see?
Chantel Jennings
I feel like I've. I've mentioned a couple, you know, Duke, UNC potentially in the Sweet 16. For fans of Duke men's basketball, Duke, Lehigh is a 215 in the first round. Hits a little close to home, I got to tell you. Okay, LCJ McCollum vibes coming up there.
Sabrina Merchant
I see.
Chantel Jennings
But, you know, I mentioned Louisville against TCU potentially in the second round. But if we're just sticking to the first round, I love Harvard versus Michigan State. Michigan State, one of the best offenses in the Big Ten. Harvard, best defense in the Ivy League. Whoever controls the pace of that game, you know, it's gonna be very challenging because they like to play in very different ways. But I like that stylistic clash quite a bit. You know, I've been tracking Oregon State, America's team, right? They, they're going to North Carolina. That's, that's going to be a toughie. Those are two teams that really, really know how to defend. But if I am the Tar Heels, I am not happy about a team of that caliber when I am the number three seed. And Michigan against whoever wins at 11, right? Like that's, that's a toughie. Michigan ended the season on a really nice. Know their freshmen are playing really well. Silas Swords I think is underrated defensively. Like she gave Juju Watkins some fits in that Big Ten tournament game. So I think, you know, if Michigan can get past that game, like they could probably give Notre Dame a little run for their money. But I'm not even sure they get past the 11.
Sabrina Merchant
There was a lot of teams that really showed up with their celebration. Maryland was up there. Michigan was also up there. I appreciated their enthusiasm.
Chantel Jennings
Wasn't Michigan in a living room?
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, but they were like, I think they were like in somebody's dorm and they were having a great time. They look like. It literally looked like my college dorm, like living.
Ben Pickman
Sure, sure.
Sabrina Merchant
But no, you're absolutely right. I feel like the Iowa State or Princeton is like a sleeper in both cases, particularly with Iowa State. It's like freshmen against freshmen or young players against young players. I would say that many freshmen, but it's just like a lot of sophomores, a lot of sophomore. Moore is a lot of young youth between those two teams. And the only thing that comes to mind is, I don't know how else to say this but like, eff it, let's just ball out, like who knows what will happen, right? And both of those teams. Yeah, that's going to be good. And of course I'm happy you brought up the pace of Harvard. Guys, if you need a, a sense of Harvard's pace, go watch the Harvard Columbia game from their Ivy League tournament. It was big. Bucket after bucket after bucket after bucket. It was just non stop scoring. Lots of fun though, going back and forth. So. Oo, this is, this is a lot. Okay. It would not be a selection Sunday show without some real talk about picks. And while Sabrina and I were just gabbing away at potential picks, Chantelle Jennings, who's joining us now, was actually making her picks. She is fresh off of making her own carefully crafted bracket. And we get to pick her brain. And she's here to break it all down with Sabrina and I. So, Chantel, you know what? Let's just dive on in. Let's go Final Four. Why not? Let's just go right to the end of the tournament. Who do you have in the Final Four?
Ben Pickman
So my final four is UCLA.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay.
Ben Pickman
South Carolina, Notre Dame and UConn.
Chantel Jennings
Oh, long live the Big East. Chantel.
Sabrina Merchant
Well, tell me more.
Ben Pickman
That was a very, very high note. You just hit Xena. You tell me more, girl.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay, I mean, this is interesting.
Ben Pickman
No, I agree, I agree. I mean, here's the thing. I agree with you 100%. I make this pick while going. They could lose in the second round. 100%. Like, admittedly, Sabrina will be the first to say I have been too high on the freshman at Michigan for the last few weeks. I'm reading too much into this Big Ten tournament success they had. Was I considering having Michigan upset Notre Dame in the second round? I was. Yes, that was Chantel and I have.
Chantel Jennings
A phone call about this before we recorded.
Ben Pickman
Yep.
Sabrina Merchant
But they found a way to get all the way to the Final Four. Explain this to me, please.
Ben Pickman
Not just the Final Four, the national title game. I went from having them maybe lose in the second round.
Sabrina Merchant
Girl. Oh my God, I'm so confused. Go ahead.
Ben Pickman
I mean, honestly, I think Notre Dame sort of feels like that team to me. That their basement might be the lowest of these sort of teams and their ceiling might be like the separation between those two might be the greatest of any of these. Like ones, twos, and maybe title worthy threes. I guess I'd probably only put Notre Dame in there if they play as. As well as they can.
Sabrina Merchant
This is fair. I think this is a fair point. Especially considering what we saw out of Notre Dame in November and December.
Ben Pickman
That 19 game streak, that 19 game.
Sabrina Merchant
Streak after they had the losses to TCU in Utah. Like we saw a team that was able to bounce back. Now, ma'am, those last few games to close, close the regular season. Talking about the conference tournament. None of that is imprinting on your mind.
Ben Pickman
No, all of it is. That is why I. Do I sound conf right now? I mean, this is like a confidence.
Chantel Jennings
Thing I want to add to the Notre Dame vibes. Check. Did they have a reaction cam during the selection show because I missed them?
Ben Pickman
Oh, nope, nope.
Sabrina Merchant
No, they did not.
Chantel Jennings
Reaction came, right?
Sabrina Merchant
Oh my gosh.
Ben Pickman
Reaction cam. We haven't. They might still be in their locker roomsboro. We don't know. We don't know where they are. Here's the thing. We've spent all year talking about parody. And I feel like when I think about these teams that are in this conversation, and I will still include Notre Dame, despite the fact that it almost feels like they have spent the last few weeks trying to convince me to not include them in this conversation personally, I will still include them against their wishes. And it just sort of feels like, you know, I don't watch men's basketball, but it sounds like on the men's side, it's like a pretty chalky year. There's, you know, two, three teams, and it's like, this is who's going to be in the Final Four. I really do feel like it's a free for all this year in women's college basketball. Like, I don't think anyone on our staff is going to have the same Final Four. We might not. None of us might have the same national title pick. Like, our elite eights might look completely different. Like, it does feel like this is a year where there might be some magic to happen. And I will acknowledge that there would be a. A significant amount of magic that would need to happen for Notre Dame to get past some of these teams. However, it just sort of feels like if that team that sort of played with that joy, that looseness, that flow, that defensive energy, I think if Olivia Miles and Hannah Hidalgo are knocking down three pointers, it sort of, you know, irons over a few of the wrinkles of their interior game. I think maybe this blessing in disguise of having a few more days off from the ACC tournament to sort of, you know, whatever minds, bodies need to be rehabbed, reflect, flush it. If there was that sort of like, come to Jesus moment where it was like, if this team is going to do this, it has to be now. Like, three starters are leaving. I'm assuming Olivia Miles is leaving. Like, this group has one shot to get over that Sweet 16 hurdle, and it's now. And I think sort of that magic that we saw with Paige, Beckers and UConn last year, where it was like, how is this team going to get to the Final Four when they have, you know, barely four players that they're all, like, bandaged together and they still did, it sort of feels like that could be Notre Dame's narrative this year. I can see that and feel free to play this back when they lose in the second round to Michigan. And you can say, chantel, what were you thinking? And I'll say, no, no, I Agree with you. No, I had that thought too.
Sabrina Merchant
But I agree with you. I think they not only have. I love this visual of their basement and also their ceiling. Because of all the teams that we're talking about that got themselves knocked out of a number one seed, Notre Dame is the most capable of regaining what had them in the conversation in the first place. Right. It felt as if it was this like weird jolt at the end of the year, but it's not necessarily characteristic of who they are. They didn't lose a player to injury or anything like that. It wasn't as if they had a coaching change or anything. If there's anyone that could get this group there in terms of leadership, Neil Ivey, I think Chantelle, you and I both talked about her for coach of the year. But also the tools in hand with Hannah hildalgo, Olivia Miles, et cetera. Question for you. Who do you have them beating in the sweet 16?
Ben Pickman
I will say if we're talking about a number one seed that definitely didn't get the easiest path in their first few games. Texas is playing some pretty, pretty good three point shooting teams. As a team that doesn't shoot a lot of three pointers, I don't think the committee did Texas any favors, but that's kind of beside the point. I have sweet 16. I have Notre Dame exercising some demons against DC.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay. I figured that's what it was. Which is going to be an opportunity to get the get back. Sabrina and I talked about some get back games. From a Duke perspective, that's going to be a major one. From a Notre Dame perspective, you don't even seem that sure about this pick. But I have to ask, is there another pick that you made on your bracket that you are more unsure about than that? Notre Dame one?
Ben Pickman
Oh, certainly not.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay.
Ben Pickman
And I'm riding them to the finals.
Sabrina Merchant
All the way to the finals. That's crazy. Who you have, who do you have matching up against?
Ben Pickman
Notre Dame, ucla.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay. Okay.
Ben Pickman
So I have sort of like what feels like, you know, the number one overall. But again, we've talked about this so many times. Backcourt play, experienced back court play in the tournament is such a tool.
Sabrina Merchant
You can handle the pressure. Mm.
Ben Pickman
And when Sony and Olivia and Hannah are at their best, that backcourt is elite.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay.
Ben Pickman
And it's just like if they can show up for 40 minutes six times this season. And it's now.
Sabrina Merchant
And it's now.
Ben Pickman
We'll see. Again, we go back to this idea. How often in the women's tournament has been like chalk in the four number one seeds, and that's who's gonna be in the final four. And it just genuinely feels like this season, there have been so many teams that were in that conversation that it would be almost silly to pick all four number ones. Like, if there's a year not to do it, it's this year.
Sabrina Merchant
It'd be a year of. That would mean that you didn't watch the games. If you did that, you didn't watch these teams across the year. Now, I'm gonna tap into the fact that, Sabrina, you and Chantel talk all the time. This is y'all's job. Y'all are writing. You're watching all these games. You're checking in with each other on these teams. I'm gonna ask you to guess the biggest upset that Chantel chose on her bracket.
Ben Pickman
Well, I called Sabrina to talk about my bracket.
Sabrina Merchant
Oh, did you? Oh, you already told her. So, Sabrina, you know, I will bring.
Chantel Jennings
It back to a prediction that Chantel made back in January when she said that Tennessee would make the Elite Eight. Is that still happening, Chantel?
Ben Pickman
Not with this bracket.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay. Okay.
Ben Pickman
I like that they're making the Sweet 16, which, with Kim Caldwell, they're not.
Chantel Jennings
Going down to Notre Dame in the Elite Eight. We didn't get that far.
Ben Pickman
Hey, is it totally out of the picture for Tennessee to beat Texas, though?
Chantel Jennings
I mean, they only lost by four to them. See, regular season, two to. I thought it was 8. 76. My bad.
Sabrina Merchant
It was 4. 80. 76. Okay.
Ben Pickman
Four points still.
Sabrina Merchant
Still. Exactly.
Ben Pickman
That's 12 seconds of offense sometimes for Tennessee, like.
Chantel Jennings
Right.
Ben Pickman
It's not much. Right. There were viable paths, I think. I'm really surprised, honestly, just looking at this bracket overall, by the number of sort of rematches and conference teams that are meeting in the sweet 16. The fact that it's. If this stays chalk, we're gonna have two Final Four games that are the fourth times, which.
Chantel Jennings
Yeah.
Sabrina Merchant
How do you feel about that?
Ben Pickman
There's a lot of that going on. I don't love it.
Sabrina Merchant
I don't. I think a lot of people don't love it. And I think that that's why the question was posed on the Selection Sunday show by Holly Rove, like, don't people want more competition, something different, et cetera? So it makes sense. Okay. So I want to get back into your bracket, and I feel like I was going to ask you your boldest pick, and I feel like we cover that pretty extensively with Notre Dame and also the team that you're most unsure about. So we cover that too. Now, you just mentioned that Texas really didn't have any favors done for them as the number one overall seed. As you look at the number ones and the number twos, is there anyone that you feel like has a pretty easy path as you charter them down like ucla, you got them to the Finals. Did you feel like that was a pretty easy path for them?
Ben Pickman
Yeah, I do. I feel like there were a few situations that could have been put in the Bruins path that might have been a bit dicier. I would say, you know, if Kansas State ends up in UCLA's bracket as a five instead of Ole Miss as a five, that's certainly a much different game that we're looking at than, you know, sort of what could happen in the sweet 16 there for UCLA. Yeah. So I think the committee's job is to give the least difficult path to the Final Four to the number one overall seat, and I think they certainly did that. I think it helps when your number one overall team has sort of like the unicorn, like Lauren Betts, where you have this sort of 6, 7 center, and there's only so many. So many teams and players that can match up in a good situation against her and that team. And, you know, USC is one of them. Obviously, we've seen that this season. I thought UCLA's path there is pretty good. I think South Carolina's path as well. I don't think there's necessarily a team, while they could have some good games, I think that's a team that those two feel the safest to me in terms of their paths to Tampa.
Sabrina Merchant
If you're looking at the overall layout, which conference was best positioned, in your opinion, throughout this entire bracket layout? Like, in terms of all the different regions, I'm looking at this and I'm thinking, you know, ACC got themselves into some tough situations. I think the Big Ten definitely got positioned well to get to the seat 16. Yeah, I feel like the ACC and the SEC are in some tough lanes to get to Sweet 16 or the Elite Eight, but which ones are for you?
Chantel Jennings
See, I would disagree with that. I mean, I don't think the Big Ten is positioned all that well. I mean, I understand that Maryland and Ohio State both got hosting seats, but I'm looking at Chantelle's bracket, and she's got two big ten teams making the sweet 16. And you can guess which two big ten teams those are.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay.
Ben Pickman
If my math is correct and Sabrina can double check me on this. I have SEC leading And then the ACC, you know, me, noted for my respect of the ACC long standing there. And yeah, the Big Ten only has two.
Chantel Jennings
The Big 12 even has three teams in.
Ben Pickman
The Big 12 has three.
Sabrina Merchant
Who are your big three, your three in the Big 12 in this week 16.
Ben Pickman
This would be another team that we could talk about sort of in a similar ceiling and basement would be Kansas State. I would say. Whether or not Aoka Lee plays like this feels like the game to me. And so in terms of the Big 12, we've got Kansas State at a Spokane four. We've got TCU in Birmingham three and Baylor. Oh, Spokane one.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay.
Ben Pickman
I think that Baylor Ole Miss game is kind of a toss up to me. I don't know how you guys feel about. I. I think it could totally go either way. I think either team that gets through loses to UCLA.
Chantel Jennings
I mean, we could see a sweet 16 with half SEC teams and I would not be surprised. Yeah, like there could be eight SEC teams and that wouldn't shock me.
Sabrina Merchant
Maybe. I'm just thinking about. I feel very confident that Southern California and UCLA are going to get it to, you know, their respective position, the Final Four Four. I mean, I haven't done my bracket yet, so I don't know, but that's why I think. I think I'm a little bit biased right now in terms of seeing the Big Ten. But again, at the time that we're recording this, the bracket just dropped. So we're doing like, deep dives right now.
Ben Pickman
I can't wait to wake up tomorrow morning, look at this bracket and go.
Sabrina Merchant
What have I done?
Ben Pickman
Have I spoken about this publicly?
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, it's gonna. It's gonna.
Ben Pickman
What have I done?
Sabrina Merchant
I do feel like this year of all the years is a year for reflection and patience when filling out this bracket because so many of these teams have performed the two things that I.
Ben Pickman
Wasn'T able to do about it publicly.
Sabrina Merchant
I know, I know. But it's just like the amount of teams that show different faces throughout this course of the season. Right. Like, there were so many more this year than I think in previous years. And it makes sense as to why the statistics I read earlier in the show, just like 359 to 1, that's how the number three, the top three seeds have performed throughout this entire tournament. Like, that's normal. That's what we expect this year. I don't know. Like, things are going to be a little bit different. Difficult, but okay. With all that said, we appreciate you, Chantelle, for immediately giving us your thoughts with no patience around it whatsoever. Of course, you'll have More time to reflect, but right now, I think you need to get to sleep. Sabrina and I will close out the show. Thanks for joining us. Some of the best moments through March Madness are the ones that you can't fully anticipate. The upsets, the Cinderella stories, the stuff you just cannot predict. But that doesn't mean we're not going to try. That's why we're here. Sabrina, you've got a piece up on the Athletic about upset predictions, particularly five upsets to watch out for in the very first round. Talk to us. What are you seeing in this bracket? What are you in your tea leaves anticipating as an upset?
Chantel Jennings
Well, just to preface this, admittedly, upsets are a little less common on the women's side. You know, with the hosting format, it's a lot harder to upset a team on their home court than it is on a neutral site. So even if you're a really good 10 seed, when you face a two seed on their, you know, home court with all their fans, you know, where they get to sleep in their own beds, it just adds to the level of difficulty. So it's a lot harder to get upsets at this time of the tournament. And frankly, I'm not even sure that I'm that pro upset because I like the good games at the end. I don't love it when, you know, all the ones and twos get knocked out by the second weekend and we're left with the final four of like a 7 and 8 and 9 and 11. Like, that's. That's a men's problem. That's not a women's problem. I like the good teams to make it through. So just to say that I'm not necessarily sure that these upsets are going to be predictive of teams getting to the sweet 16 or even further. But in the first round, these are some. Some games that I have my eye on. Now, we already mentioned this earlier. Michigan State and Harvard. I think Harvard just on a good roll here. Harmony Turner might be the best player in this game, although Grace Van Saluten, awesome how Harvard's gonna deal with her. Elena Rodriguez is gonna have her hands full. But I like Harvard's defense. And generally when it comes to upsets, you know, if there's a team that's really good defensively versus one that's really good offensively, I tend to pick the one that's really good defensively. So, you know, Crimson. My apologies, D. Although I know you like Harmony Turner.
Sabrina Merchant
I do. I really do. And I think it's funny that you said Elena Rodriguez is going to have her hands full because she typically has her handful with giving the ball away with all the assists that she gives. You know, I was like, did you do that on purpose? I couldn't tell. I couldn't tell. But anyways, okay, yeah, I definitely see that. And I absolutely, when I looked at that matchup when you mentioned it earlier, I was like, ooh, Harvard may get to what I'm predicting is going to be an NC State game, but we'll see. Okay, that makes sense. What's next?
Chantel Jennings
All right, so next up, if we look at Spokane 4 Florida Gulf coast versus Oklahoma. This is actually a rematch of a first round game from last year. I want to say it was a 512 last year and this year it is a 3 14. But I still really like Gulf Coast. Just their style of play is they get up shots just as much as Oklahoma does. So the pace really matches what they're trying to do. They only lost by three last year. Again, level of difficulty a little bit higher this year because, because it is in Norman, Oklahoma. But if ever there were a, you know, a high seed to lose, I, I like this matchup for Gulf Coast.
Sabrina Merchant
So I thought you were going to say the level of difficulty is a little bit higher because there's a person in the middle that's, you know, Reagan Beers is a little bit.
Ben Pickman
Sure, sure.
Chantel Jennings
Hey, I think about three years ago when Gulf coast upset Virginia Tech, when Liz Kitley was in the middle. Liz Kitley set like a program record with 40 some points in that game. It did not matter. So I think the style works in favor of the Eagles here.
Sabrina Merchant
Next up, what's the next upset on your, on your list?
Chantel Jennings
All right, so if we look at Birmingham 2, Maryland vs. Norfolk State. Okay, I was not super thrilled with the way Maryland ended their regular season, you know, getting, you know, curb stomped basically by Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. Dealing with that injured Bri McDaniel. You know, Cheyenne Sellers came back, but I don't think she's quite been herself since coming back in Norfolk State they've got Diamond Johnson who has been in this stage before. She played in tournaments with NC State. That is a as good of a player as you're going to find on a mid major team. So it's another upset formula, right, like you want to make sure you have the best player on the court. And I'm not sure if Diamond Johnson is the best player in that matchup, but she could be for a game and that's just enough. Again, the kind of player who is not phased by these environments. So another one to keep an eye on.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay. I really, really love Ivy league and the HBCUs showing up in this tournament. Like, I really do want Norfolk State to just get a little ahead because I think that there is. There's literally never any HBCU representation, and this is a team that I absolutely think could take it to the next level in terms of at least to the next round past the 64. So. Okay, I like this. Keep it going. What's number four?
Chantel Jennings
All right, so we mentioned this again earlier, but it was Michigan versus the winner of Iowa State, Princeton.
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I'm with you on that.
Chantel Jennings
I think I like the upset potential better if it's Iowa State. Just because Audi Crooks is something of a matchup nightmare. Michigan doesn't have a really true post to contend with her. And, you know, we saw this last year in the tournament where adi puts up 40 points in the first round against Maryland because they really just didn't have a legitimate center to guard her. And for all of Iowa State's difficulties this year, Adi has not been the problem. So I think if the Cyclones get past Princeton, that's an 116 that I think works in their favor against Michigan.
Sabrina Merchant
I like this as well. I. I'm trying to figure out if I want to root for Princeton in this first four situation. Trying to put my allegiances aside. But I do like Iowa State. I think that's a team that on this pod, we've been rooting for. I think they started the season out underwhelmingly, and it's great that they have this opportunity to redeem themselves, especially in the first four. How much do you think having to play a first four game and then also having to play the round of 64 will impact either Iowa State and Princeton?
Chantel Jennings
I don't think it's a huge deal. There's no travel involved. Unlike in the men's tournament, the women's first four is at the same host site. So, you know, they're going to be playing in South Bend for, you know, Notre Dame is hosting that particular pod, so there's. There's no travel. You know, you play two games in three days, it's not. Not the end of the world. And I think getting into a rhythm could eventually benefit one of these teams, especially because, you know, Iowa State's got some depth, so I don't think it's gonna be a huge issue there.
Sabrina Merchant
Okay, cool. All right, last but not least, let's round it out.
Chantel Jennings
All right? So we'll get to number five. Yeah. So I mentioned earlier, you know, kudos to the committee for getting us the potential Louisville vs Haley Van Lith matchup. But what always happens in these cases is the matchup you want to see does not come to fruition because something gets in the way. And I think that something is going to be Nebraska against Louisville. This is a team that is just tough as frickin nails and they shoot the ball so well. I mean, Alexis Markowski just totally rock solid post. You've got shooters all around. Brit Prince has just been an awesome watch this year. And again, a team that like never feels out of a game. So I like their size, I like their physicality, I don't like their shooting. And I think that's going to be a hell of a game between Nebraska and Louisville. And if I had to pick one more upset, that's where I'm leaning.
Sabrina Merchant
And you know, the fun part about Nebraska is that they run their stuff. They're one of the most disciplined offensive teams. And when you think about Louisville's defense, it's going to be very interesting to see if they can disrupt that and make things a little bit uncomfortable out there. But yeah, every time I watch Nebraska I'm like, oh, we know that play is coming. Yeah, we know that. They've been like really trained really well in that regard. So. Okay, this is a great list. And I think this is. I don't know. I want to ask you when you're looking at last year's tournament versus this year's tournament in terms of like the amount of potential upsets, which one had more in your opinion?
Chantel Jennings
You know, I really should have gone back and counted the number of upsets in 2024 first before I could make an accurate comparison here. I feel like about 25% of the games in the first rounds end in upsets. So, you know, maybe it's a little bit lower because of the hosting. But I do think as much as we talk about like parity within like the top of this field, I think the, the bottom is a little bit weaker than it was last year. So I'm not expecting as many upsets early though. Like later on if we get like six versus three or you know, four versus one or something like that seems to have more potential to me than these early roundup sets.
Sabrina Merchant
I agree. I think there's a lot more parity in terms of the cream of the crop of the top, you know, epsilon of all these teams. Oh, well, all I can say is it's going to be a very exciting couple of weeks. The build up to April 6th is going to be a lot of fun. And we got you covered right here at the Athletic at no off season. We'll be back tomorrow for our regular Tuesday pod and it's gonna be great because we're gonna go even deeper into the bracket and have the possible paths to the final four laid out. And then again on Friday, we've got a very special guest. Legendary former Stanford coach Tara Vandiver is going to be in the building. Her team did not make the tournament. However, she is very well experienced in this space. She'll be joining us to take all your most burning bracket questions. So make sure on that end send us your questions. We need to know what you want to know so that we can help you. And also we can pose them to coach van de vere. Coach Tara, she likes to call herself. So leave a comment wherever you're listening. Give us a shout out on socials. We're on instagram. It looks strange when you read it. It looks like. Like it's an off season but it's ta no off season. Or you can shout myself or any of the other hosts out. Our handles are in the show notes. Or you can also. Oh, my God, there's so many options. Like literally, there's no excuse. Send us your questions. You can also email us at no offseason theathletic.com we want to help you own your bracket pool. So write in and we'll do our best to answer everything on Friday. And speaking of owning your bracket pool, why not join ours? Sabrina, at what point do you usually do your bracket?
Chantel Jennings
That's a great question. I think I usually fill one out tonight before I go to sleep and then I just go back and redo it again before Friday.
Sabrina Merchant
So you see what I'm saying? Like, the love and the passion is there, folks. We've done our nighttime routine and brackets will be filled out tonight because I'll be working on mine as well. And now we encourage you guys to also fill out your bracket. The official no off season bracket challenge is live. Join us, our hosts. Join our community. Fill out your bracket and compete for all the glory. I'm not sure what we'll give out, but there's the glory that you should want. Head on over. We're at the Yahoo. Fantasy hub to women's bracket mayhem and search for our group. No off season bracket challenge ID number and this is important, 2519. No off season bracket challenge ID number 2519 it's public. It's live. Come play with us. Check out the show notes for more info. And while you're there, make sure to visit our partner Yahoo Sports Hub Sports Yahoo.com Women's sports who okay, bracket is live. We know where everybody's seated. Sabrina's about to go do her bracket. I'm about to go do my bracket. So for now we're going to close it out. On behalf of the Athletic, I'm Zena Keda. Thanks for listening. We will see you next time. No Off Season is hosted by Zena Kada with Chantel Jennings, Sabrina Merchant and Ben Pickman. It's produced by Tanika Burrell. Our executive producers are Andrea B. Scott and Cassius Fleming. Our theme music is by Marcus Bagala. Grayson Moody is our video editor. Shannon Ryan is managing editor of women's basketball at the Athletic. Jesse Burton is our head of audio and Tim McMahon master is director of Audio operations.
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Chantel Jennings
A place where we make fun of everything, but most importantly ourselves.
Sabrina Merchant
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Chantel Jennings
I'm Hannah Berner welcome to the Squad. Giggly Squad started on Summer House when we were giggling during an inappropriate time. But of course we can't be managed, so we decided to start this podcast to continue giggling.
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No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show Episode Summary: "The 2025 Women's NCAA Bracket is Live" Release Date: March 17, 2025
Introduction and Episode Context
In the episode titled "The 2025 Women's NCAA Bracket is Live," hosts Zena Keda, Chantel Jennings, Sabrina Merchant, and Ben Pickman dive deep into the excitement surrounding the release of the 2025 Women's NCAA Basketball Bracket. Recorded late into the night on March 17, 2025, the team sets the stage for an in-depth analysis of the bracket, discussing seedings, potential upsets, and Final Four predictions.
Top Seeds Analysis
The discussion begins with an overview of the top seeds announced for the tournament: UCLA, USC, South Carolina, and Texas. Sabrina Merchant highlights the recent release of the bracket, noting the anticipation and excitement it has generated among fans.
Chantel emphasizes UCLA's deserving position based on their high-profile wins, minimal losses, and strong strength of schedule. She contrasts this with UConn's placement as a number two seed despite their impressive victory over South Carolina, attributing UConn's lower seeding to their overall consistency and competition level.
Selection Committee Insights and Snubs
The hosts delve into the controversial aspects of the selection process, particularly focusing on snubs and the influence of the selection committee's decisions.
Chantel discusses how the performance of surrounding teams impacts a team's seeding, using Virginia Tech as a primary example of a snub. She points out that Virginia Tech's late-season losses and the success of other teams in their conference played a significant role in their exclusion from the NCAA tournament, landing them in the NIT instead.
Sabrina raises questions about how competitive losses, such as South Carolina's 29-point loss to UConn, affected their seeding and overall placement in the bracket.
Bracket Competitiveness and Regions of Death
A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to analyzing the competitiveness of different regions within the bracket, identifying what Chantel refers to as the "bracket of death."
Chantel expresses concerns about rematches in early rounds, particularly within the ACC, where Duke and UNC might face each other sooner than fans would prefer. She also highlights Spokane 4 as the most challenging region, featuring powerhouse teams like UConn and USC, which could potentially lead to repetitive matchups.
Ben discusses the implications of different seed placements within regions, suggesting that the committee aimed to provide the least difficult path to the Final Four for number one seeds, though not always to the hosts' satisfaction.
Final Four Predictions
The conversation shifts towards Final Four predictions, with each host presenting their own selections based on their analysis of team performances and potential matchups.
Ben selects a Final Four that includes three traditional powerhouses alongside Notre Dame, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the current season.
Potential Upsets and First-Round Predictions
Sabrina and Chantel explore the possibility of upsets in the first round, acknowledging that while upsets are less common on the women's side due to home-court advantages, certain matchups still present viable opportunities for lower-seeded teams.
Chantel identifies Harvard as a potential upset candidate against Michigan State, citing their strong defense and the individual performances of key players like Harmony Turner.
Final Thoughts and Audience Engagement
As the episode nears its conclusion, the hosts encourage audience participation through bracket challenges and upcoming special episodes featuring expert insights from legendary coaches like Tara Vandiver.
Sabrina invites listeners to join their bracket challenge on Yahoo Fantasy, fostering a community-driven experience around the tournament.
Notable Quotes
Chantel Jennings on UCLA's Seed:
Sabrina Merchant on Competitive Losses:
Chantel Jennings on the Interaction Effect:
Chantel Jennings on Final Four Concerns:
Ben Pickman on Bracket Paths:
Conclusion
"The 2025 Women's NCAA Bracket is Live" episode of No Offseason provides listeners with a comprehensive analysis of the newly released NCAA Women's Basketball Bracket. Through detailed discussions on seedings, selection committee decisions, regional competitiveness, Final Four predictions, and potential upsets, the hosts offer valuable insights for both avid fans and casual observers. With engaging dialogue and expert opinions, the episode sets the tone for an exciting tournament season, encouraging audience participation and anticipation for future episodes.