← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
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- [00:00]
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Zena Kada
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- [01:24]
Chantelle Jennings
of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate only. Then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra.
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Eden Lossie
See full terms@mintmobile.com.
- [01:46]
Zena Kada
Hello everyone and welcome to no Off Season. I'm Zena Kaeda.
- [01:50]
Chantelle Jennings
And I'm Shantel Jennings.
- [01:52]
Zena Kada
And today on the show, the madness is about to unfold. We're talking bubble watch, the snubs, the surprises and everything in between with our resident bracketologist Eden Lawsey here to tell you everything you need to know before Selection Sunday. But first, in case you missed our big announcement, no off season is expanding to three times a week. I know you wanted to hear our voices more while we're doing it. Okay, starting next week, just in time for March Madness, we'll be coming to you Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. And drumroll please. We're also welcoming a new co host to the show, former WNBA star Leijah Clarendon. Lajah knows the game on the most intimate level. She spent 11 seasons in the WNBA and she's bringing that player's perspective to the mic. So here's what to expect each week. Tuesdays, Chantel, Sabrina and I will break down the state of play across the NCAA and the wnba. Big games, big storylines and everything you need to know. So very similar to what you've been hearing. Then Thursdays, Lajah and I will bring analysis from the player's perspective and conversations that move beyond the box score at real world issues that intersect with basketball. And we know there are many. And then on Friday, Chantelle and Sabrina, two of the best women's basketball minds and writers in the business, will take you behind the scenes of their reporting, sharing insider stories from the cutting room floor and a whole lot more. They'll also welcome in more writers from the athletic that may also be watching women's basketball, which there are many. So get ready three days a week, more voices, more insight and a lot more basketball. Now I know I just told you about all those changes, but next week is going to be a little different because on Sunday night after the Selection Sunday live broadcast, we are coming to you in our first ever no off season live stream. Is that exciting? Okay, so you're at the tune in on YouTube starting at 6:30pm Pacific Time, 9:30pm Eastern for all of our hottest takes on the official bracket. Okay, now moving on to other exciting things like, you know, whether we're going to have a WNBA season or not, let's go ahead and get to Deal or no Deal. The drop dead deadline has come and gone very similar to the Y2K deadline. It was exactly as I imagined and there is still no deal in place. Now Sabrina reported on Wednesday that the two sides have been meeting over the past couple of days as negotiations continue. Literally a 12 hour meeting where Kathy Engelbert is coming out of their building at 5am telling reporters that things are moving in the right direction. Crazy to imagine being up that late and early, but this is how important it is. Shantel, where do things stand right now? What can you tell us about where things are in the negotiation?
- [04:47]
Chantelle Jennings
Yeah. So as we've reported on last site and as I confirmed with the source this morning, meetings happen Tuesday and Wednesday. These like marathon bargaining sessions where eight different proposals were sent back and forth. So eight dealer no deal. The answer is no deal. But proposal or no proposal? Yes, times eight. And they are continuing to meet on Thursday. And so we're recording this Thursday full transparency. Thursday morning they're in sessions as we record this. So things are in flux, they're changing. But the things to know at least coming out of that Wednesday marathon session was that the W's proposal, they have moved the cap up to 6.2 million from 5.75. That changes the supermax salary in year one of the deal to about 1.3 million, or about 21% of the cap. Year six, that would be up to 2 million.
- [05:41]
Zena Kada
Okay.
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Chantelle Jennings
You know, the sticking point still is revenue share, right? It always comes back to that. And that is where it still is. The league still wants to take expenses out. And so based on their math, at the end of the day, players would get about 15.5%.
- [06:01]
Zena Kada
I knew you were going to say
- [06:02]
Chantelle Jennings
revenue over the lifetime of this CBA deal, as we remember, most recently, the most public reporting or the most recent public reporting on this was that the players had asked for 26%. So there's still a golf. I spoke with a source this morning and said, you know, can you describe the vibe? Like, you know, like, what is sort of the feeling? NECA spoke to reporters last night when she was leaving, and she said the players were feeling movement. I asked this person, can you give me, like, a vibe check? And they said they're not close enough. Like, the two sides are just simply not close enough at this point. And I think, you know, 15.5% to 26.26%, which was the last player proposal that we heard of, like, yeah, they're just not close enough yet. And. And still we should say that the housing issue, which is a really big issue, which we've talked about on this podcast before, the league still does not want to pay for housing for all players over the course of this CBA deal.
- [07:02]
Zena Kada
Got it? Yes. And it is important to note that housing at one point in these conversations had been taken off the table completely. And in the last publicly reported proposal before this, marathon proposals being sent back and forth, the league had put housing back on the table, but it was only for that first year. And eventually, over the course of the cba, it would phase out. And not all veterans. Yeah, so that is interesting, the movement on salary, salary cap rate. But I know that Neko Guemoke was talking about the percentage of the revenue share was really the sticking point, was really the problem in terms of not feeling respected. In the movement that both sides were making, players originally were looking for around 40%. Started around that spot, I would say, back when they opted out. Originally, they were looking at 40%, not trying to match the men at 50, but went down to 40. And over the course of time, up until this last, these last proposals that were sent out in December and early February, the players have come down all the way, 27 and a half to about 26 now. And this is over the average revenue Share over the course of the CBA and Nica, Grima K was on Jemele Hill and Care Champion's podcast saying that the percentage difference in terms of the movement that the league has made was less than 2%. And that's what feels like they've come down from 40 over the course of the deal to down to 26. And the league has not really budged on theirs. This math that you're talking about, the league's math, I think that is the number one question that everyone wants to know. How do you add up the expenses? What are the expenses?
- [08:49]
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How.
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Zena Kada
How is one team's expense being matched to another team's expense? Because we know the teams that are sharing resources with NBA teams, their expenses might be less or different than other teams.
- [09:02]
Eden Lossie
This is.
- [09:02]
Zena Kada
This is all very interesting, especially with these new teams coming on board that had to pay a significant sum to even be in this conversation. What do their expenses look like? I have questions, Santel.
- [09:13]
Chantelle Jennings
Well, and Zena. Like, the questions that you're asking are the exact questions that the players are asking. Because one of the things that's really interesting is that the WNBA right now is saying that the players can't audit the expenses. And so they're saying, you just have to. You just have to take us at face value that, like, when we're saying, you know, we're going to take the expenses out of the revenue and then we're going to split what's left over from that. Like, just trust that these expenses are legit. And I'm not saying that they're not legit, but I'm just saying that you can understand, like, this is a league that we've seen. Everyone remembers what Nafisa Collier said this off season. Like, this is a league that has been very public about some of its mistrust with leadership at the league level, clearly. And so it's like when you have that level of mistrust coming to the table to negotiate, and they're saying, well, just like, believe us, like, this is. These are the expenses that have to happen. And the players are like, well, but can't we see the math? Like, can't we make sure the math, maths. And so I think that's like, the questions that you have, the questions that we have are also the questions that the players have.
- [10:20]
Zena Kada
Yeah, I can imagine after the fact, that we learned through the players, not through the league, that we learned through the players, that the league had actually received enough revenue to be able to have a payout at the top of this year, that alone, the fact that that is how the information came out, that the players were actually going to finally get a revenue share because they had hit their cumulative target feels mistrustful. Like, why would you not share that information and be proud to share that information? Yeah, it just adds to my level of what's going on here. And I can imagine that the players are like, we need to see those numbers. Bring out the excel sheets, bring out the spreadsheets. Come on. Okay, so my last question, because there's a ton of them that still aren't an answer, but I will not press you to have them if the league doesn't have them. Chantel, what are the chances of it's the WNBA having its first ever walkout or strike?
- [11:19]
Chantelle Jennings
I don't think we're there yet. Like, you know, there is still a lot that needs to happen. But I genuinely believe both sides want to have a season. Both sides know that it's in their best interest to play games this year. And you know, the game we keep pointing to is that May 9 matchup between Indiana and Dallas, which will have the most, the four most recent number one picks. Like what an exciting game. The league wants to have that game. Yeah, for sure. And so the league is going to push to get there. I think what we're looking at now is that training camp is going to continue to get shorter. I, you know, we're recording this two days after the deadline. You know, they could still have their full training camp which is still like two and a half weeks. But you know, I don't think we're at that point yet because I do think, you know, everyone from the top like of WNBA leadership to the players to the GMs, to like everyone involved in this wants to have a season this year. And I, I do think that, like the fact that we don't know sort of where the players are right now with their own rev rev share numbers. Like we know the Most recent was 26% again by Friday we might know that number. So make sure you check out the Athletic for our most recent reporting. You know, I do think, I guess I still feel optimistic that they're going to get to a place that, you know, I don't think it'll be like a full season lockout or a full season strike or anything like that.
- [12:47]
Zena Kada
Yeah, not having that game on May 8 and May 9, excuse me, would be, I think, a killer to momentum and I don't think either side wants that. Okay, so as of now, quick summation, where do Things stand.
- [13:04]
Chantelle Jennings
So the league has moved a little bit on their salary cap from 5.75 million up to 6.2. That moves this max to 1.3 million in year one, 2 million in year six. The average in year one would be about 570. And so I think the players are feeling this movement, as Neca Ogwa make had said after Wednesday night's meetings, or I guess Thursday morning, perhaps. But there's still, as a source that I spoke to said, they're just not close enough. The where the league is sort of coming out on Rev Share and where the players are is it's not close enough, but they are back at the bargaining table. And since we've seen movement over the first two days, perhaps lucky day number three will spur some kind of extended movement here.
- [13:53]
Zena Kada
I like the pressure. Okay, let's move on. Because there's other things happening in the women's professional world. Yeah, there's a whole World cup happening. Okay. The FIFA Women's World Cup. I know. And get ready for it, Chantelle. There's people coming back to the court that we haven't seen in a long time. So I am very excited for this. The Women's World cup. Excuse me, qualifying tournament tipped off in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and Team USA wasted no time making a statement, beating Senegal 110 to 46. Yikes. Okay, it's a dominant result. But what did we actually learn about this team from that game?
- [14:33]
Chantelle Jennings
Yeah, I mean, I think we need to take these games for what they are right now. And Carol Lawson and kind of said it afterwards that, like, this is an opportunity to just sort of see what's going on, see where these players are at, see different player combinations together. So I'm not going to read too much into, like, who's starting, who's coming off the bench, who's the sixth woman. Like, this is a World cup qualifying tournament for which they've already qualified for the World Cup. And so it's like, this is an opportunity to, for some players, shake off the rest a little bit, for other players to play together for the first time in a FIBA situation. For some players to just play in their first senior national team experience. Right. Half this roster. And so it's a young group. I think all of these players are in the pool, obviously for the World cup, but it's going to keep getting smaller and smaller because we obviously know who is not on this roster right now, who we can assume will be on the World cup and the Olympic rosters. And so this is just an Opportunity for Carol Lawson and her staff to see who's working well together. How can they put different players in situations to succeed for Team usa? Like, that's ultimately, like, this puzzle that they need to put together with a very short amount of time, because I'm pretty sure they're only going to have one more training camp before the World Cup. And so if they only have, you know, these five games, one more training camp, and then the World cup, where it is like, roll the balls out and let's fight for this championship. The US has five. They're going for number six. Then this is, you know, there's a lot on the line there. And so I think this, again, don't read too much into, like, oh, this player got more minutes than this player. Like, this player started and this player didn't. Like, this is. This is very much a petri dish for Carol Lawson or. Or a science lab for Carolson to be like, okay, what works? What doesn't? What can I sort of change here? What do I want to, like, not touch? Because that just already works.
- [16:24]
Zena Kada
I like petri dish. I like science lab. I like the opportunity, even for Carol Lawson to be able to just see some things early. What about you? Was there anyone that, like, you know, took your eye and was like, oh, this works. I like this experiment or something that you're like, okay, I can see how a player that's not there might be able to fit in with the pieces that are here.
- [16:47]
Chantelle Jennings
Yeah. I mean, I think it's like, you just watch this. This tournament, and you're like, okay, Asia Wilson's not here. Brianna Stewart's not here. Nafisa Collier's not here.
- [16:57]
Eden Lossie
Right. So big.
- [17:00]
Zena Kada
That's.
- [17:00]
Chantelle Jennings
That's. That's a quarter of the roster right there.
- [17:02]
Zena Kada
Sure.
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Chantelle Jennings
And so it's like you're looking at that and you're like, all right, so there's. There's some really crucial missing pieces here. And I think looking at sort of the makeup, then I think of the guard play specifically, where it's like, you know, you have those three bigs, like Chelsea Gray's veteran leadership, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young, those sort of, like, vets. And then you have the younger players, like the Paige Beckers, the Ryan Howards, the Caitlin Clarks of the world, like, these younger players coming in who are making their senior national team debuts, and sort of imagining, again, this is the part where it's like you're doing a puzzle and you're missing pieces. Like, as someone that loves puzzles, like, I guess I can Kind of relate to Kara in this moment. It's like you're doing a puzzle and, you know, not all the pieces are here. And so you're like, just sort of trying to figure out what fits where when these three huge pieces, maybe it's like you're doing a puzzle and it's like the edge pieces aren't there. Because I think we could consider Asia and Stewie and fee those, like, edge pieces of this international team at this point. And so, yeah, I think, again, I'm just watching it and it's cool to see players, you know, get this opportunity for the first time in their career when they've worked so hard for this, but then also watching it and going, you know, the two best players, the three best players in the world, you know, are currently not on the floor for this team. And they will be. So how does that change things?
- [18:20]
Zena Kada
I like the idea of the edge pieces. You can count on them. They're an easier find in terms of their productivity. And the edge pieces, hard to miss. Exactly. Yeah, that's a very good analogy there. All right, coming up on the other side, bracketologist Eden Lossy joins us as we take a closer look at the bubble.
- [18:44]
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- [20:52]
Zena Kada
All right, y', all, the moment we've been waiting for. We're welcoming in bracketologist Eden Lossie. Eden, welcome back to the show.
- [20:58]
Eden Lossie
Thank you so much for having me.
- [21:00]
Zena Kada
Yes, I'm sure you have been busy watching games, getting ready because we are just days away from selection Sunday and we know there's been a lot happening around these conferences before the committee releases its next top 16. I feel like this is America's Next Top Model, but like less toxic. I want to get your take. Who deserves the number one overall seed?
- [21:26]
Eden Lossie
Yeah, it's definitely a debate between two teams, Connecticut, obviously, and UCLA also. Obviously. So what it comes down to essentially is what does the committee value more? Do they think that an undefeated season with nine quad one wins is more valuable than a one loss season where that loss was in November with 18 quad one wins? And we're kind of going to see what it comes down to. I think that they're going to give it to UConn, I don't think. I think with the reputation with them being the defending champs, I don't see them changing that. I do, however, think if we're just looking at resumes, UCLA probably should get the overall one, but I don't think they will. But also, in the end, it's not that big of a deal. It's fun to debate, but I think both teams will be in really good position. And I also think they're both kind of going to be on a crash course to meet in the final. It just kind of is A matter of what the committee thinks is more important.
- [22:25]
Zena Kada
I'm happy you brought up this aspect of like the recency bias, essentially. Chantelle, you've talked a little bit about this of like, what have you done for me lately? You're one that continuously uses that. And it's very true that the committee kind of feels that way. My thing is about the strength of conference. You know, yes, UConn has put in the equity. They have the equity. Everyone knows that they still perform regardless of having to go through the Big east during the regular season. And that's why UCLA is, can get 18 quad one wins because of the Big Ten and the power that they, the powers that they have versus UConn having to stack their big wins in the non conference games. How much do you think the committee is going to care about the Big Ten versus the Big East?
- [23:07]
Chantelle Jennings
I mean, I think this is a lot of the debate and I think this is also going to sort of fuel the debate around the debate, which is probably even more interesting because there's so much talk about like, you know, you know, it's weird to say it now, but like, is Yukon overrated type of a thing or like. Yeah, I think this is where you see like when people do those like the blind takes, where it's like, here's one resume, here's another resume. Which one do you think should be number one? And I think if you put UCLA and UCONNs just like straight resumes next to one another, you're like 18 quad one wins. They're only winning or their only loss happened in November. Like that was obviously not recent. The committee has shown us what they care about is recency. It's why Duke was in the top 16 after starting the season in kind of a train wreck. Like so, you know, recently. And overall UCLA has the better resume. And I think this is where it comes down to the observable component. Like you watch these two teams on the floor and again it's sort of this idea of like UCLA has five or six teams first round WNBA picks on its roster, which is just wild, wild. And UConn, you know, has played through the Big East. And so you're like looking at and you know, I think they have the best player in the country, maybe you know, the only team that has two all Americans on their roster with Sarah Strong and AZ Foot. And then you have all the pieces that fit together. Gina Orema has said it that like the sum of their parts is better than just the individual players. And so yeah, I think this is going to come down to the observable component in a big way. And like Eden said, I do think there is. You know, this is why I remember covering college football and when they went from like, the one college football playoff where it was determined by a computer, to the committee playoff determining, like, you bring in the human element. And so when you walk into the room as someone that has followed women's basketball, you cannot ignore UConn's history. You cannot ignore what Gino Auriemma has done in March and April. Like, that is just a part of this program's history, and it might not be a part of the actual criterion that they get. It might not technically fall under observable component, but it's a part of. You know, it sort of. It changes the way that you see a team. Right?
- [25:28]
Zena Kada
Yeah. Yeah. The UConn experience is the excellence of.
- [25:32]
Eden Lossie
For sure.
- [25:33]
Zena Kada
So that's going to continue to be a debate until, obviously, the selection is made on selection Sunday coming up. But there's a ton of other games and other teams that we have to look at, and that particularly is around the bubble, teams that are just sitting right on the edge between the last teams in and the first teams out. So, Eden, looking at the bubble right now, which teams do you think have played their way in and which teams might be seeing their chances slip away?
- [26:01]
Eden Lossie
Yeah, so for me, the teams that really played themselves into a great spot was Colorado. They did fantastic in their tournament. You know, they had that upset over Baylor, so that really helped them out. And then I think that's going to get them into a by spot as well. Again, it was a late season, major win, and so I think that's really going to help them out. Clemson also, I think, played themselves in. You know, they had that really good win over Notre Dame and then another over Duke, and again, those were late season wins. The committee's gonna love that. And they also beat Virginia in the ACC tournament, and I think that's because those two were kind of on the bubble. So in the very least, Clemson's gonna be able to say, okay, well, we beat Virginia, so we deserve a spot over them. I do still think Virginia is in, but Clemson just helped their case that much more. So those are two teams that I really think played themselves in. I think Arizona State is another team that played themselves in. You know, they had an excellent tournament as well. Do I think they have the best resume? No, but there is precedent, as we've talked about. Right. Because there's not been a power four team that's had 24 wins and not gotten in. So the committee's going to have that in their head even though they only have one quad, one win. But again, it's, you know, kind of these things that Chantel was talking about. Obviously Arizona state is not UConn, but when you put it in perspective like that, they're going to say, well, does Arizona State really deserve to be the first team to miss out with 24 wins or are they going to put them in?
- [27:39]
Zena Kada
That's a really good point. And you lay out a lot of these teams that had conference tournaments that were excellent or above par essentially. And beyond just the recency aspect of it, is there something about the fact that these are kind of the games on the line that help move the needle for these teams on the bubble?
- [27:58]
Eden Lossie
Yeah, I do think so. I think it's again, it's a little bit of a double edged sword because if you're on the bubble, these games I think matter way more if you're kind of between seeds. I think it's not necessarily going to impact your overall resume as much. But like for example, I think Nebraska is going to be kind of an outlier where they have a really good net ranking of 28, a really great strength of schedule of 17, but they've, they're 2 and 7 in the last month. And granted like that conference, the Big Ten is incredible, but those are the kind of teams that you're going to need to beat to get into March to end be in March. So while like yeah, on paper their resume looks really great, I don't see them getting in and if they had won a game in the Big Ten tournament that could have really helped them.
- [28:47]
Chantelle Jennings
Eden, I have a question about the Big Ten tournament actually. So you know, on Saturday they're going to Release the top 16 teams that'll all be hosting and it was the Big Ten that really took up the bottom quarter of those rankings the last time we saw those on March 1st. But obviously Michigan State and Maryland lost a little bit earlier than maybe some people might have expected. And Maryland was 13 and Michigan State was number 14 actually in both of the committee's release in mid February and early March. How did those losses impact their resumes, do you think? And do they drop off the hosting line because of the losses to Illinois and Oregon respectively?
- [29:30]
Eden Lossie
Yeah, I have Michigan state at a 5 now. So they did drop. And again it's not just that one loss, but at the tail end of the season they had some losses that they shouldn't have and you know, the resumes of some other teams was a little bit stronger. The part that's really interesting to me is, you know, my last four and my first five, my last four is Maryland and my first five is Kentucky and I think it's really going to be kind of a toss up for the committee. So they have similar resumes. Maryland had a great late season win over Ohio State. They also beat Michigan State. But then again, like you mentioned, you know, they had a bad loss in the tournament. While Kentucky's losses, their poor losses in the season happened without Tiana Key. And we have to remember that they do take injuries into account. So she is back, she's playing well. So that could change things. The one thing that's interesting to me is they do have a head to head matchup which Maryland won, but that happened back in November. So does that matter to the committee? And it could come down to that. I think it does.
- [30:28]
Chantelle Jennings
When you're talking about ucla.
- [30:30]
Eden Lossie
Yeah, there you go. Exactly. So that's what we say again. This is my thing with bracketology that I find so interesting is, you know, I'll always have people say, oh, you're wrong about this, you're wrong about this. And it's like, well, you can't really be sure because it is humans picking it. So they're going to have double standards. They're going to have things that they value more than other things. And that's why it's fun to have a committee and it's fun to, you know, have this conversation with you guys and be like, do you think that Maryland win over Kentucky in November matters? I don't know. I don't know if it might come down to that, but it's hard to say.
- [31:00]
Zena Kada
It depends on who you're asking.
- [31:02]
Eden Lossie
Exactly.
- [31:03]
Zena Kada
Several conference tournaments have happened. Ivy League conference tournament for example though, is still going on. Is there a team currently sitting outside the field that could still play its way in through these conference tournaments?
- [31:14]
Eden Lossie
Yes, I think if the Ivy wants to get a two bid, they want to be a two bid league. Princeton can't win the tournament. Is Princeton, I think is going to be in. Columbia's right on the outside, but I guess technically like Harvard could win as well. So if one of those teams win and get in, then I think Princeton will still be in. If Princeton wins, I don't think we'll have another Ivy team in and that could end up impacting some of those other small conferences. Right. Like we have, you know, Richmond, who is always has been on the bubble all season. But of course it's harder for them to, you know, get those resume boosting wins in the 8:10. So if, you know, Princeton and Columbia both get in, then Richmond could be on the outside or vice versa.
- [31:59]
Zena Kada
Oh, interesting.
- [32:00]
Chantelle Jennings
Can you explain the Richmond conundrum to me? Because I think like, I will admit, like I do want to see Maggie Dugan play in March, but I don't think that's enough on their resume as an observable component to put them in. And I look at the rest of their resume and I'm like, where, where is the committee? And like other bracketologists, yourself included, and they're saying like, you know, they're the first four out or the last four in, like they're on the bubble. And I'm like, I don't understand how they're on the bubble because I look at their season and I'm like, I, I don't think they should be. And there's two teams ahead of them in the A10 alone.
- [32:32]
Eden Lossie
Yeah, I tend to agree with you. But here's the thing about that is we talked about a lot like committee loves their net rankings and until they prove to me that they don't, that's what I'm going to go on the most. Enrichment has a good net ranking and that a lot of that comes down to because there are various things in the net that contribute. One of those is winning by a lot of points. And when you're playing, you know, a lower strength conference, again we see this with UConn that you're able to rack up a lot of points against your opponents and really boost that net ranking. I think another thing that's interesting to me is I think every year the committee kind of seems to pick like a mid major conference that they really love. You know, I think a darling. Yeah, a darling. I think the Ivy has been the darling the last two years. I think so too.
- [33:19]
Zena Kada
Yep.
- [33:19]
Eden Lossie
So this year could it be the A10? And you know, we would be remiss to say it's like to not mention that, you know, media narratives do drive these things. And the A10 has been talked about a lot as being a tough conference and I do think it has been pretty good this year. So with again with that, you know, floating around the committee's head, are they going to say, you know what, let's give it to the A10, that's our conference this year. Who knows?
- [33:41]
Zena Kada
Okay, who do you have as your first four in the. I guess, yeah. I always find it so strange to say the first four, but they're, they're last four in. But the first four.
- [33:51]
Eden Lossie
The first four games. Yeah. So I've got Virginia, Richmond again for the reasons we mentioned, Arizona State, because I don't think they're going to leave them out based on that power forward 24 win situation. And then the last team I have in is an interesting one and that's Texas A m and they're 14 and 12, which is obviously not a good record. I think they're kind of on the flip side of that. Nebraska, right. Where resume wise, they look like they shouldn't be getting in. But then when you look at their, the end of the season, again, they have really good wins in the back end of the season. And that's kind of the magic of the sec, right? You know, they beat Ole Miss, they beat Alabama, they beat Tennessee, they beat Mississippi State, who was another bubble team. So I think that the committee might throw them a bone and put them in. Especially when you look at the other teams that I think they're kind of competing for that spot with, which is Mississippi State, who, like I said, they just beat Kansas, Kansas State and Nebraska.
- [34:50]
Zena Kada
Ooh. Okay. Okay. Hmm. This is interesting. Now let's, let's talk a little bit about like seeding because seeding does set the path for the tournament. Who plays who, how tough each road, some, some roads to the Final Four are easier than others. You know, some people have said that before. So the committee has to balance record, they have to balance strength of schedule, quality wins, net ranking, all the things that you leveled out here to determine these seeds. Are there any teams that could land in spots that we wouldn't expect and could surprise us in terms of seeding?
- [35:25]
Eden Lossie
Yeah. So I think the couple teams that have kind of fallen down quite far are going to be Tennessee and usc. I have them both at nine on the nine seed line. And again, it's a similar thing. They've not performed well towards the end of the season, but they do both kind of have reputation. Tennessee in particular is going to be helped by that, I think, and then also the strength of their conference. Whereas USC does have a few good wins like they did beat Iowa. So I think that will help them out a lot. So those teams are kind of interesting in that spot because again, they do have some talent. So if they get out of that first round, who knows what could happen with them. Right. And then another team that's interesting to me is Notre Dame. I think a lot of the season people thought they should be on the bubble but they're all the way up at a six now because they, again, they have some really great wins. They performed well at the end of the year.
- [36:17]
Zena Kada
Yeah, Louisville win was huge.
- [36:19]
Eden Lossie
The Louisville win, I think is everything because again, we've got Louisville up here as a three seed. You know, they were close to being a two seed. Notre Dame beat them. That's going to be recently in the mind of the committee. And I hate to keep going to the recency thing and saying in the back half it's real, but it genuinely does matter to the committee because again, if you look at it and it's like, oh, wow, this team beat whatever team the first game of the season. Those are completely different teams now. That's just the reality of how this works. And so I think recency is huge. And I'm going to keep saying it. It's going to make people upset if their teams haven't won a lot at the end of the year. But that's just the reality of what the committee has done. And until the committee shows me that they're not going to do that anymore, I'll go with that.
- [37:06]
Chantelle Jennings
Well, I think it's like people are always like, why? You know, if you look at like conference standings and stuff, it'll say like, how many, like, what is their streak they're on? And it's like four wins in a row, five wins in a row, three losses in a row. Like that matters. It's not just a fun stat that conferences are putting out there or that these different stats websites are putting out there. Like that truly does matter, I think. And the committee this season especially has shown it to us with recent head to head results, how those teams jump or fall in the rankings. Like, yeah, what you've done for me lately really matters in the eyes of the committee.
- [37:40]
Eden Lossie
It sure does. And I think, you know, they've also shown that like, if, if you're going to win big games down the stretch, then they think, hey, you're going to do well in the tournament potentially. I think the last thing the committee wants is to give a bid to someone who's just going to look terrible in the first round and, you know, have people saying, why on earth was this team even in? And granted, we never know really what's going to happen, right, because of matchups, etc. Like Tennessee could get in and just, you know, rip off three wins and we'll be like, what the heck, you know, oh, it's so exciting. Look at Tennessee. But they could, you know, lose in the first round and then have people saying, well, wait a minute, why are they even in? And so that's kind of the dichotomy too. I think the committee wants to set up the tournament to be a good tournament. Right. I mean it is. You know, this is like a business. They're putting their product and they want it to be good entertainment.
- [38:34]
Chantelle Jennings
Yeah. On that note of like storylines and media driven narratives and like the fact that this is entertainment, just like another notch to put in that like point of evidence would be like, let us remember that the last two years Hailey Van Lith's teams played Louisville during the tournament. Like they were on the same path when she was at both LSU and tcu. Like that is not by accident. That is the committee putting together these matchups that are like a little spicier, a little juicier, that drive both interest and ratings. So just one more fact to add to that.
- [39:09]
Zena Kada
I respect the committee putting this level of thought into all of this. Right. You're not only respecting the basketball, but you're respecting the fan. You're respecting the fact that we want a good product out there and we want games to be competitive.
- [39:23]
Eden Lossie
The.
- [39:23]
Zena Kada
You know, Chantel and I have spoke about Team USA beating Senegal 110 46. Like don't want too many of those type of scores in March. So definitely appreciate the work the committee is doing. Appreciate the work that you've been doing for us, Eden. Thank you. And like helping us break all of this down and understand these types of things. And yeah, this is why you have to come to the Athletic to get Chantel's takes and Eden's takes and Sabrina's takes on everything regarding March Madness. And this is why you have to tune into the Selection Sunday show live stream because Eden will be back to be able to break down what she thinks of how the committee actually selected based on everything we just laid out here. And Chantelle and Sabrina as well as Leija will be joining us for that show. So definitely make sure to tune in. Thanks Eden.
- [40:08]
Eden Lossie
Thank you so much.
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- [41:52]
Chantelle Jennings
All right, Zena had to run, but I wanted to tell you all where to set your screens and this weekend, come watch us catch us live on YouTube this Sunday at 6:30pm Pacific, 9:30pm Eastern, as we react to the brackets after Selection Sunday. Don't miss me. Xena, Sabrina and our new co host, former WNBA star Leisa Clarendon. Eden Lossie will also join us for a bit as we unpack this bracket from the biggest snubs to why the committee seated it the way it did, plus the matchups you'll definitely want to watch. All right, that's all we've got for you today. Don't forget, we will be live this Sunday with our bracket reactions. So if you haven't already, please please follow our show. And if you're watching on YouTube, please subscribe. You don't want to miss our live bracket reactions. Tell your friends to check us out. And while you're at it, give us a rating. Drop a comment. We'd love to hear from you on behalf of the Athletic Zena Kada, Eden Lossie, I'm Shantelle Jennings. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.
- [42:49]
Zena Kada
No Off Season is hosted by Zena Kada with Chantelle Jennings and Sabrina Merchant. It's produced by Tanika Burrell. Our executive producer is Andrea B. Scott. Our theme music is by Marcus Begala. Monica Compton is our video editor Shannon Ryan is managing editor of women's basketball at the Athletic. Jesse Burton is our head of audio and Tim McMaster is director of audio operations.
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