No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show

Episode: Who Will Claim the Final No. 1 Seed?

Hosts: Shantelle Jennings & Sabrina Merchant
Date: February 24, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives into two primary threads:

1. The newly achieved revenue sharing milestone in the WNBA and its impact on the league's financial landscape and collective bargaining negotiations.
2. The fiercely contested battle for the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament, spotlighting which teams are best positioned as March approaches.

Jennings and Merchant unpack the latest CBA revelations, break down team trajectories across the nation’s top conferences, and debate seeding projections, bringing in both statistical and narrative analysis. They also tackle a listener mailbag exploring Paige Bueckers’ current standing among global basketball stars.

WNBA Revenue Sharing Breakthrough (01:52–11:48)

Context & Background

• The WNBA hit its revenue sharing target for the first time since the 2020 CBA—a major milestone iterated by the league and the players for several years.
• Pandemic seasons (2020/2021) missed targets, but explosive growth in 2024–2025 triggered a $16M overage, split evenly: $8M for league marketing (off-season events, sponsorships), $8M distributed directly to players (02:30–04:02).

Key Insights & Debate

• Revenue Transparency and Public Perception:
  • "We don't know their math, we haven't seen their numbers. They won't open their books to us or anyone..."
    — Shantelle Jennings (04:02)
• The core CBA divide: WNBA’s proposal gives ~15% of gross revenue to players; the union’s counterproposal targets ~27.5% (04:53–07:00).
• On Money Flowing Directly to Players:
  • "It's a good thing... they managed to hit this number that they set out in 2020."
    — Sabrina Merchant (06:56)
• Negotiation leverage & the battle for public favor—how revealing these numbers influences both sides (07:00–08:03).

Current CBA State

• Recent proposals: League unchanged on revenue share but agreed to full player housing for 2026, plus retirement enhancements (08:07–09:50).
• Housing as a sticking point: Difficult for transient, seasonal players to find six-month housing; bulk deals from teams are efficient and increase safety (10:10–11:48).

On-Court Analysis: Teams Chasing the Top Seeds (11:56–27:13)

TCU’s Resurgence (11:56–16:33)

• Home streak & March potential: 41-game home streak, fourth straight Big 12 win.
• Olivia Miles, previously limited as a shooter, has transformed post-injury: "This is the same Olivia Miles that was not even attempting threes when she was at Notre Dame..."
  — Sabrina Merchant (12:44)
• Veteran core (Marta Suarez, Olivia Miles); lack of depth, but high-upside Sweet 16 or even Elite Eight run if stars deliver.

Minnesota’s Climb (16:35–23:06)

• From unranked to 18th; strong NET ranking (8th nationally), but lacks national poll recognition.
• Depth could be a liability come March; core players log heavy minutes and are mostly local products, bringing chemistry and consistency.
• Notable moment: Shantelle’s sideline experience as a mom with her three-year-old, lamenting ice cream portions but noting the team’s familial vibe (16:35–16:45).
• Key wins (Ohio State, Iowa) boost hosting candidacy, but lack of bench depth remains a concern.

Kentucky’s Hosting Hopes (23:06–25:48)

• Just outside the top 16 in latest NCAA seeding reveal. Recent tight losses (Vanderbilt, Texas), but high-profile wins (LSU, Oklahoma) keep them in the mix.
• Parallel to TCU: veteran backbone, strong shooting, but missing signature “marquee” victories to stand out.
• "At some point you just got to get that marquee win..."
  — Sabrina Merchant (24:27)

Who Claims the Final No. 1 Seed? (28:37–43:14)

Criteria & Metrics (28:37–31:25)

• Deciding Factors for Seeding:
  • NET ranking
  • Strength of schedule
  • Quad 1 wins/losses
  • Recent quality of play
  • Subjective committee leanings
  • WAB ("Wins Against Bubble"), a new NCAA metric focusing on performance relative to a hypothetical 'bubble' team:
    "I feel like it is the greatest piece of evidence we can use in terms of not everything needs to be an acronym."
    — Shantelle Jennings (29:42)

Team-by-Team Breakdown

• Texas—Merchant’s favorite for the final No. 1:
  • 9 Quad 1 wins (second nationally), quality wins over South Carolina, UCLA, LSU, tough schedule (8th-most difficult), consistent season-long performance (31:25–32:48).
  • "They have a star in Madison Booker. It's all the type of ingredients that you think qualify for a number one seat."
    — Sabrina Merchant (32:33)
• Vanderbilt—Head-to-head over Texas weighs heavily; drubbing of Texas and committee receptive to “what have you done lately” (32:48–35:13).
• LSU—NET and metrics love the Tigers, but their soft non-conference schedule (ranked 280th), and prior committee treatment (never seeded above a 3), makes a No. 1 unlikely unless they win the SEC Tournament (35:41–37:54).
• Others? — Big Ten teams (Michigan, Iowa) on the outside looking in, lacking top-shelf wins; only a Big Ten tourney title over UCLA could change that (42:23–43:14).

Final Predictions & Stakes

• Top 3 No. 1 seeds are secure: UConn, South Carolina, UCLA.
• Hosts agree Texas is most likely to grab the fourth No. 1, followed by Vanderbilt, then “anybody else” (38:18–39:44).
  • "I just don't think head to head should matter as much when Texas has the rest of that resume in their favor."
    — Sabrina Merchant (39:37)
• Why does it matter? Being the last No. 1 keeps a team out of UCLA’s region—the biggest possible bracket advantage (38:18–40:57).

Listener Mailbag: How Good is Paige Bueckers? (45:42–50:26)

Question: Where does Paige Bueckers rank among the world’s best right now? Above Sabrina Ionescu/Jackie Young? Top 3 behind A’ja and Napheesa Collier?

Merchant’s View:

• Top 10 in the WNBA already (46:05).
• “Jackie Young is still the best guard in the WNBA... Paige, it's hard to gauge how good she was in Dallas almost because the games were of such little consequence.” (46:33–46:45)
• Merchant puts Bueckers above Ionescu currently ("just because the shooting ability..."), but won’t move her past Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, or Kelsey Mitchell yet.
• Bueckers’ size and skill set give her long-term upside; her impact at Team USA camp was eye-opening (49:22–49:45).

Jennings’ Note:

• Intrigued by Bueckers' “sophomore leap”—she’s physically stronger now after a grueling college-to-pro grind (48:12–48:55).

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “[The WNBA] managed to hit this number that they set out in 2020. And even after all of the losses they incurred in the first two years...”
  — Sabrina Merchant (06:56)
• “At some point you just got to get that marquee win...”
  — Sabrina Merchant (24:27)
• “How many top 10 teams are actually in the top 10?”
  — Shantelle Jennings (25:48)
• “The Big 12 is a weird conference… just clip that. The Big 12 is a weird conference, Endpod.”
  — Sabrina Merchant & Shantelle Jennings (12:28–12:38)
• “If you go to a basketball game with a three-year-old, you’re not going to see much of a basketball game…”
  — Shantelle Jennings (16:40)

Key Timestamps for Reference

• Revenue sharing & CBA: 01:52–11:48
• TCU/Sweet 16 chatter: 11:56–16:33
• Minnesota’s rise: 16:35–23:06
• Kentucky’s seeding outlook: 23:06–25:48
• Seeding criteria & No. 1 debate: 28:37–43:14
• Listener question on Paige Bueckers: 45:42–50:26

Summary Takeaways

• The WNBA’s new player revenue sharing marks a historic financial step and frames the next CBA battle: how much of the surging revenue should really go to players and in what form?
• The NCAA picture is fluid. UConn, South Carolina, and UCLA are No. 1 seed locks. Texas and Vanderbilt are battling for the coveted fourth top spot; head-to-head wins and late-season results will tip the balance. LSU could still crash the party by storming through the SEC tournament.
• Depth, experience, and star guard play are central storylines this March—particularly for upstart contenders like TCU and Minnesota.
• Paige Bueckers is widely regarded as a top 5 guard in the world according to current WNBA context, with potential to rise higher depending on team fit, health, and further development.

For more deep dives and a look ahead to the women’s hoops postseason, catch the next episode of No Offseason.