← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
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- [01:01]
Shantelle Jennings
a
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- [01:47]
Shantelle Jennings
Hello everyone, and welcome to no off season. I'm Shantelle Jennings.
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Sabrina Merchant
And I'm Sabrina Merchant.
- [01:53]
Shantelle Jennings
And today on the show, as Selection Sunday gets closer, we already have a pretty good idea of the three top number one seeds. You con South Carolina and ucla. But the big question is who's going to claim that fourth and final top seed? With all the surprise upsets, parity and strength of schedule, we're breaking down the teams that could potentially secure that last top spot. But first, we had some breaking news on Monday. Sabrina. We've confirmed that the WNBA reached its revenue sharing target for the first time during the 2025 season. And now there will officially be revenue sharing between the league and players. Sabrina, what can you tell us about this news?
- [02:30]
Sabrina Merchant
Right, so we've talked about revenue sharing as it exists in the current collective bargaining agreement on this show before and essentially how it works is in the 2020 CBA, there was a system whereby there was a target each year that the league had to clear in terms of revenue. And if it exceeded that target, then that money would be shareable with the players. And that target went up by 20% each year over the life of the CBA. And it was a cumulative target. So because 2020 and 2021 were pandemic seasons, the WNBA didn't hit the target, was very short of that target, I should say, during those first two seasons because of the lack of revenue during the pandemic seasons. So it wasn't something that was really considered up until there was this massive boom in revenue in 2024 and 2025. 2025, they finally got to an overage. And that overage was $16 million that got to be shared with the players. And so that $16 million, half of it goes to league marketing agreements. You think about all the things that players do during the off seasons where they're camps and cares events and stuff with their sponsors. And then the other 8 million goes in payments directly to the players. So you think about the salary cap of the WNBA was about 1.5 million last season. Average salary per player is about $120,000. For an additional 8 million to be dispersed among the players is a pretty significant number. And when we're talking about collective bargaining negotiations, it just speaks to the financial situation that the league finds itself in, however you might make of that.
- [04:03]
Shantelle Jennings
Well, yeah, I feel like this leads perfectly into our deal or no deal segment, because I feel like the leagues has been sort of saying, and again, we don't know their math, we haven't seen their numbers. They won't open their books to us or anyone that they're going to lose hundreds of millions of dollars under this revenue share model. And suddenly, aha, right after the league's revenue assessment that was got, which was handed over to the players union, we should say on February 9, so they had time to analyze it and have their own accountants look at it. There is clearly some revenue to be shared. There weren't, you know, they weren't operating at a loss. Like, how does this, how do we sort of view, you know, without knowing the exact math, without knowing the exact numbers? Like, how. How does this change the way that you're looking at the argument on both sides of this CBA argument right now?
- [04:54]
Sabrina Merchant
The league has contended that with the players union proposal, the league would lo $460 million over the life of this current agreement. And we should say that that proposal projects a salary cap of about nine and a half million. So if you think about last season's salary cap was one and a half million per team, that's a $8 million difference. So eight times nine, that's $120 million per year. So you can see why there would be shareable revenue in the previous agreement and not what the WNBA contends is shareable revenue in the current agreement. So that's just one thing to keep in mind. But I do think that the financial health of the wnba, even after going through the two pandemic seasons, you know, rebounded to a point like, where this revenue sharing was triggered. And that's an important marker, right? Like, the players were working for six years to get to that right, starting in 2020 and to finally get it in 2025. I don't think it's an accident that the union shared this information that they wanted the public to know that, hey, WNBA is making some money. We got to share in it. And here's exactly how much money we got to share in. Because as we mentioned so many times, the heart of the discussion in these negotiations has been how much revenue can the WNBA actually share with the players in the new collective bargaining agreement? And the proposal from the WNBA gives about 15% of gross revenue to the players. The players have been trying to get in the neighborhood of 30%. Their most recent proposal is right around 27.5% of gross revenue. So clearly still a big divide there. And even though there was revenue available under a previous agreement, that isn't to say that the WNBA is necessarily obfuscating about its numbers this time around. It's just there's a lot more expenses that will be incurred in the new agreement with all of the additional salary and with charter flights and all the other minimum staffing standards and things that the WNBA is including in this particular agreement. All that being said, you know, congrats to the WNBA for. For hitting the target like it's a good thing. I think, in broad, broadest terms, like a good thing that they managed to hit this number that they set out in 2020. And even after all of the losses they incurred in the first two years
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Shantelle Jennings
of that agreement, I feel like it's the perfect example of how you can have an argument that sort of, like, cuts both ways, where it's like you could see both the players in the league saying, like, the price today is not the price of yesterday. Where it's like, yes. And obviously these revenue sharing models are different. And so there is revenue sharing happening under the previous model, which targets. And again, we talked on this podcast ad nauseam about gross versus net revenue for the league and the players. And feel free to listen back to all of those podcast episodes. But it'll be interesting to see sort of how this all plays out. I think we're kind of in the point of the negotiations, too, of the public perception and how much pressure that can sort of create. And does this. The fact that the players. This is out there now, does this benefit the players more in their argument? Is there more public pressure on the league because of that? Or what way is this gonna work? Is this. I'm fascinated to sort of see how the winds blow on that. But we should also recorded, you know,
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Sabrina Merchant
that there was a new proposal sent, right, as of last week.
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Shantelle Jennings
Deal or no deal, Proposal or no proposal, not including marriages, as you and Xena had brought up last time. This is just proposal or no proposal. And there's. Yes, there's been a proposal. Sabrina, what can you tell us?
- [08:20]
Sabrina Merchant
The players had shared their most recent proposal as of last Tuesday. That was February 17th. The league responded on Friday, February 20th. Their revenue structure was largely unchanged in this current proposal, but it did sort of change the math on how expenses would be taken out of the net revenue calculation. Even so, the total share of gross revenue that the players would receive is still in the neighborhood of 15%. What the league did agree to was full housing for all players in the 2026 season, which has been a benefit throughout the history of the wnba, but something that the league has tried to phase out in these negotiations because of the rise in salary, thinking that the players could secure these accommodations on their own. And then there's also some other ancillary benefits, like improved 401, a retirement benefit for players who had eight years of service in the WNBA, and things like that. You can check out the story online for all of the nitty gritty details of the money that would be coming the player's way in this new agreement. But I think the main thing to focus on is that we're still dramatically apart in terms of how the league and the players want to share the revenue and how much of the revenue will be shared, you know, with the players. But again, worth noting that at least in both of the proposals, revenue is directly tied to the salary cap in a way that it was not in the current cba, where you had to get these, like, random bonus payments if a certain target was hit.
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Shantelle Jennings
Right?
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Sabrina Merchant
Like, at least in the new agreement, whether the WNBA's proposal is, you know, what direction it goes in, or the WNBPA's proposal, the revenue will determine the overall salary cap. And, you know, you'll see increases that are directly tied to how much revenue the league brings in.
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Shantelle Jennings
Do you have a sense of why the housing is such a big part of the players argument? Like, why do they care so much about housing when we're sort of seeing these minimums go up to 200 plus thousand dollars and the average is going to be half a million? And I understand the markets are all completely different. I live in Minneapolis, but the Minneapolis market is different than Brooklyn or Golden State, but it's also different than Dallas. Like, why is, why is the housing such a sticking point for players?
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Sabrina Merchant
Well, part of it is that it was just taken away in one of the league's proposals and that was a dramatic change from how things had previously been done. But also you think about just the life cycle of a WNBA player. They play in market for no more than six months during the season. And so it's hard to find a place for six months if you don't plan on living there your entire year. Right. Because a lot of players end up going overseas or going to unrivaled or Athletes Unlimited and they have to be elsewhere from their WNB market. And are you just like, paying for a place while you're not there? Like, all of that is a challenge. And then you think about just the calendar. You know, people get drafted in April and they are expected to, what, find a place by the start of training camp a week later, or, you know, they sign in free agency, especially this season, where free agency will probably bleed into April and then they immediately have to find a new place to live. So it's just a matter of like, safety, convenience, all of these things that are easier to accomplish for a team if they're doing things like in bulk and finding like a group of 15 apartments in a building as opposed to individual people trying to sort out issues for themselves. Yeah, exactly.
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Shantelle Jennings
Makes a lot of sense. All right, well, why don't we move on to the Sabrina scale? I'm not going to sing it. Sabrina. We're going to have a musical interlude
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Sabrina Merchant
here at that place.
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Shantelle Jennings
I know. At some point I feel like that should just happen every time Xena doesn't sing it. I'm like a little disappointed. And so I feel bad that I am also not doing it, but I also don't feel bad. So we're going to take a look at a few teams that caught your eye this past weekend. Let's kick it off with TCU, who extended their home winning streak to 41 games with an 80:73 win over Iowa State. This is TCU's fourth straight Big 12 Conference win. What's clicking for them right now?
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Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, the Big 12 is a weird conference. I've had a couple friends refer to it as the mid 12 because everybody's
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Shantelle Jennings
sort of just, just clip, just clip that.
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Sabrina Merchant
Just locked in with each other.
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Shantelle Jennings
Just, just clip that. The Big 12 is a weird conference, Endpod.
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Sabrina Merchant
But I do think TCU has separated itself in a way that they can be considered a national contender, at least to get to the Elite Eight in a way that other teams in this conference aren't necessarily being talked about that way. And it really comes down to Olivia Miles. Like we saw her against Baylor a couple weeks ago, hit 10 three pointers and this is the same Olivia Miles that was not even attempting threes when she was at Notre Dame before she tore her acl. And you could guard her essentially in any ball screen action by going under and taking off, you know, her access to the paint because she wasn't going to be able to shoot capably. She wasn't even a good free throw shooter. And now, you know, she's turning into that long distance threat we saw against Iowa State where she just completely took over that fourth quarter, scored 17 points and it wasn't even with a single three pointer. It was all just like mid range actions and unfortunately abusing her dear beloved Adi Crookes in her fick and royalty events. So I think that was a matchup that they were able to target quite effectively. But yeah, I look at TCU and we talk so much about how guard play matters in March and getting deep runs into the tournament. And Notre Dame kind of reached the Sweet 16 ceiling with Olivia Miles in her time there. We'll see if tcu, who managed to make the Elite Eight last year by beating an Olivia Miles Notre Dame team, can do better than that this season. But I just look at a player like her who has so much experience in college, who has become so comfortable in navigating every sort of offensive situation that she sees. And it's hard to bet against a player like that because of all of the things she's capable of. And then you add in the fact that like they have good defense at the center spots and Taylor Bigby's hitting a lot of threes now. I'm still concerned about the overall depth, but no team really has as much depth as I would want in this particular season. And I think that's why TCU has sort of come back up. It's just not a lot of teams have a player as good as Olivia Miles.
- [14:33]
Shantelle Jennings
I mean, I think TCU is going to be one of those challenging teams. As you know, we're getting to March and I'm starting to think about my bracket that I'm going to have to publish. And all of you know, I'm already arguing myself on certain teams that I'm like I should without even knowing what the bracket is going to look like. And I think TCU is one of those teams that I'm thinking about already because it's like, what do we like during March? We like good guard play, we like consistent scorers and we like veterans. And it's like tcu, as you mentioned, doesn't have a ton of depth. But Marta Suarez, 130 plus games, Olivia Miles, 130 games. Like, these are two proven scorers who have had lengthy careers. We've talked about the sense of urgency and what that can mean in March when you're a fifth year senior. Like, this is their last go around. TCU is the school they decided to do it at. You know, they've made it to the Elite Eight before as a program, not with these players, but it's like Mark Campbell has gotten a team there before of a lot of, you know, newer faces, and it's sort of. It looks like that's going to be his equation moving forward at tcu. Can he do it with this group? I think it entire. It entirely relies upon whether or not Olivia and Marta show up really, really well every single night of the tournament. And they need to be playing at 120%. And if they're not, they're going to lose. And if they are, they have a really good shot of win. You know, maybe not every team in the field, but I'd say a lot of teams, especially depending on what seed they're going to get. And so I'm just really fascinated by TCU, the Big 12, two teams overall in the top 25 net. Like not a great conference, not a super strong conference. So it's like you can watch those games and take from them what you will. Not a lot, all the time. And even so, I look at Marta, I look at Olivia, and I think there's enough there, I think, for a Sweet 16 potential Elite 8 run if things get really wild and special, maybe a final Four, but probably not, I don't know, don't click.
- [16:34]
Sabrina Merchant
I think we should leave it at that. I like that part.
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Shantelle Jennings
Yeah. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see. All right, well, why don't we shift over to the Big Ten? We're going to talk about a team that you wanted to Cover Minnesota a couple of weeks ago, they weren't even in your rankings. Last week you had them at number 23. They've climbed to number 18. I will say I went to the Barn this weekend to take in a game. Not as a reporter, but as a mom. I took my three year old. You know, fun fact, if you go to a basketball game with a three year old, you're not going to see much of a basketball game. We stayed for a little more than three quarters. We went to the bathroom three times. We got a hot dog, we got green ice cream. And I just want to say, whoever has decided these portion sizes for ice cream at the Barn, I don't like you. You are not welcome in our home ever. Because it's way too much. My 3 year old ate almost all of it. Anyways, so Minnesota, they lost to Michigan State Sunday, but obviously had a huge win over Ohio State. They're a team that at this point seems to be trending up. What are your thoughts on the Gophers?
- [17:45]
Sabrina Merchant
Well, I was hoping you'd have more analysis other than just the ice cream at the Barn, but the fact that your daughter wanted green ice cream I think was probably a good indicator for the Spartans that night. Yeah, who knows? But Minnesota, a team that the NET loves a lot more, I think, than most polls do, they are at 8 in the net rankings right now, which is obscene. Like literally higher than tcu, a team that we spent this long talking about. But it's a team that doesn't turn the ball over very much. A team that gets a lot of depth of scoring from up and down his roster. I do think the game in Michigan State was something of an outlier just in terms of how poorly they shot. You know, 5 of 17 from Amaya battle, 2 of 15 from Grace Krakowski. Like, it's just, it's. You can't win games like that. And I think usually when you're going to take 15 more shots than your opponent, you're going to put yourself in a good position to win. You're not going to lose by double digits at home. So I'm inclined to think of that as an outlier, especially because of all the wins they've collected to this point in the Big Ten. I mean, they could finish top four in the Big Ten in a really good conference that's going to have hosting teams like Michigan, Iowa, ucla, you know. So I'm overall just very impressed with how Minnesota has sort of rebounded from a couple of missteps in their non conference schedule. You know, I was really high on them at the start of the season and they go and lose to Kansas and things just sort of came a little undone. But they've rebounded quite nicely. It's a group that's been together for a while too. I love consistency at this time of year. And you know, they had like a four year senior honored on Senior night, which I. How often does this happen anymore? Like players who have been in a program this whole time. But yeah, I think the turnover rate is really what interests me the most. Just because they create so many opportunities to score, they put themselves in position to like get a good shot every time. And when you have like a good inside presence like Sophie Hart or, you know, good shooters, again, that was not the case against Michigan State. But broadly speaking, like, they only turn the ball over nine times against Ohio State and that's a press team, right? So I like a team that takes care of the ball that much. I still think whether they get to host or not is a really interesting conversation because again, obviously the net likes them a lot, but there's still a narrative I think that they're trying to overcome here. And maybe that's something we could talk with Eden about. But yeah, I pleasantly surprised by how the Gophers have, you know, put together this stretch in January and February. I will quibble with the broadcast that said that they were the hottest team in the Big Ten coming in on Sunday. Like UCLA exists. I understand Minnesota might be the hottest team, middle part of the Big Ten,
- [20:12]
Shantelle Jennings
but yeah, even if you see fun, watch. I think the interesting thing about Minnesota, we talk about TCU not having a ton of depth. Like Minnesota truly ran with like five players against Michigan State and like you said, a ton of consistency there. You've got players like Sophie Hart who feel like they've been there forever. Amaya Battle who feels like they've been there forever. You know, Mara Braun out last season, been there forever. And so you just have this consistency. And a lot of these players are from the state of Minnesota. So Even though Tory McKinney is only a sophomore, she's from Minnetonka, she like probably grew up playing North Tartan basketball with all these girls, knows all of them from AAU open gym days in the area. So there's just a lot of familiarity, I think, and that sort of consistency can serve you really well. But when it comes to depth in the tournament and you're playing, you know, two games in three days and you're traveling and you only have five players that are all playing like 32, 34, 38 plus minutes a game. Like that's kind of a, it can be a slog of a. Of a tournament for some players. And so I'll be curious to see what happens there on the Michigan State side. I will say again, I didn't get to watch a ton of the game. I've watched highlights back and I'm like, oh, wow, interesting. Um, this would be a good challenge, sending people to a basketball game with a three year old to see how much you can actually learn. Um, the Kennedy Blair experience in person is fun. Uh, she, I think in, you know, there are those players that just sort of pop more in person than on tv. That's not true all the time and it's not always super consistent. But I really enjoyed seeing Blair in person. Um, there's something about her competitive nature that I saw in person that I was like, oh, okay. And my husband was like, she's really good. I was like, yeah, she is, you know, third year in the program, obviously. First year she was hurt and now she's a red shirt sophomore. But she was a lot of fun to watch. But I do think Minnesota in that hosting conversation will be interesting after Michigan went to Iowa and put together one of their worst performances of the season. I think Minnesota going down there and winning, that is important. We know that the committee values head to head wins and so Minnesota having these wins over Ohio State and over Iowa are going to be really important. I think they're hosting. You know, their ceiling might not be hosting, but if they make a deep enough run in the Big Ten tournament, you know, we'll see what happens. All right, let's swing over to the SEC then. Kentucky was 14 in your rankings last week and they've slipped to 16 this week. They've had a few narrow losses against top tier SEC competition this season, most recently falling at home to Vanderbilt 81, 79 on Sunday. Sabrina, despite these close defeats, Kentucky is still projected as a high tournament seed thanks to signature wins over LSU and Oklahoma. Do you think the Wildcats need a strong finish to avoid sliding further down the seed list though?
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Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I mean, this is a good team to be talking about in the context of our hosting conversation because in the latest seeding reveal, which happened, we should say like 10 days ago at this point, Kentucky was not in the top 16, but they were probably right, right off of the board.
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Shantelle Jennings
They've got to be like 17.
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Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, 17. Maybe 18. And since then we've seen Kentucky collect a good win over Ole Miss. They have lost to Texas in that span and they did just lose to Vanderbilt, which a side note, every Kentucky Vanderbilt game just must watch popcorn theater type of entertainment. I cannot get enough of these two teams playing against one another. So they close out their season against Auburn in South Carolina. I don't necessarily think that they're likely to beat South Carolina. So they're kind of reliant on other teams in this range sliding a little like whether that's Ole Miss, who again they have the win over, whether that's Michigan State or Ohio State or Minnesota in this case. But you know, you just think about like you mentioning how difficult it is during the tournament when you don't have a lot of depth and you're traveling Kentucky, another team that doesn't have a ton of dap. It would be so much easier for Kentucky if they were just able to stay at Lexington and you know, not have to worry about all of the vagaries that come with going on the road for the first two rounds of the tournament. But you know, I look at Kentucky, I can't help. It's like they're so similar to me with tcu. And it's not just because Clara Silva and Clara Strack played with each other last year on Kentucky, but they have like, you know, the old and tall thing going. They have a lot of three point shooting, a very dynamic pick and roll point guard with Tony Morgan, a nice center who can defend the crap out of paint and she's a little more offensively gifted I think, than Clara Silva. But again, just like a very veteran team that has a lot of nice wins but not any great wins. Like they just kind of can't quite get over the hump against the South Carolina. Texas, like that win over LSU does stand out with that Tony Morgan game winner. But you know, even these last two games against Vanderbilt where they just barely lose both of those, this still feels to me like a second round ceiling type of team. Like I wouldn't be. I don't think it would be a disservice to them if they didn't get to host because they haven't necessarily proven that they are capable of beating the very best. And it's too bad because I like a lot of players on this team and I think their style plays a lot of fun. But at some point you just got to get that marquee win and if that's going to be South Carolina, which it's at Kentucky, so that's a good chance for them to collect a sort of A resume win there. But I do think that they're going to need one good SEC tournament win at the very least if they don't beat South Carolina to really secure them their place in the top 16.
- [25:48]
Shantelle Jennings
I mean, I feel like overall, a lot of, you know, these teams that we've talked about so far, and I had this feeling when I was leaving Williams arena yesterday was like, we've talked about this before on the show. How many top 10 teams are actually in the top 10? And then you kind of have this grouping from 8 to 20 where it's like, those are really good teams. But what exactly is the sweet 16 going to look like? I don't really know because I don't trust all of those teams in the 8 to 20 range. I mean, heck, I don't trust the teams in the 1 to 8 range all the time either. But I certainly trust them a lot more reliably than those teams in the eight to 20 range. And so are the one to seven, I should say. And you know, sometimes that seven is like maybe up to like four or five teams in the top 10. I don't know how you feel about how many top 10 teams are actually in the top 10. But it'll be interesting to see what happens these next two weeks or next week and a half. Just because this part of February is such a hard, hard road for so many teams. Everyone is tired. Everyone's just trying to grind to the end of the season. You can see the end of the year, but it sort of feels like this mirage that's just like out there and you have two more games and you just gotta get through it. And then you have the conference tournaments. And so it'll be interesting to see sort of how many of these teams can sort of go into that like track mode of like you're coming around the final curve. Just sprint to the end.
- [27:14]
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- [27:42]
Shantelle Jennings
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- [28:37]
Shantelle Jennings
All right, for now, UConn, South Carolina and UCLA are sitting pretty as number one seeds, but who's sneaking into that final top spot? There are a few teams that have strong resumes. So we're here to talk through what is going to make a difference for these teams as we barrel towards March. And my God, we really are barreling towards March. Somehow it is the end of February. I don't really get it. But let's break down for our listeners some of the key factors that go into deciding who gets a number one seed. Sabrina, can you break down some of these factors?
- [29:07]
Sabrina Merchant
Right, so we've talked a lot about NET thus far. You know how the committee views your overall body of work, strength of schedule, Quad one wins. Again, those are wins like either at home against a team in the top 25 of the net or on the road against a team in the top 40 of the net. Unfortunately, those numbers tend to change over the course of the season because teams get better or worse and fall in and out of quads. But yeah, not having bad losses, you know, recent quality of play, all these sorts of things. And ultimately there is just some sort of subjective nature of like, hey, we just think this team is better and deserves to be on higher line and that's how we're going to reward them over the course of the NCAA Tournament.
- [29:43]
Shantelle Jennings
I also want to bring up the wob. This is a new metric they're using. I feel like it is the greatest piece of evidence we can use in terms of not everything needs to be an acronym. Like anyways, it's called Wins against the Bub and it's basically it shows how many more or fewer wins a team has according to the NCAA compared to what a bubble team would average against that same schedule. And so it's sort of trying to find the mean of what a team is and then comparing every individual team. Are you getting More wins or less wins than that sort of bubble team. And so this is a metric where you want to have a much higher. A higher number. So if you look at the WAB, UCLA is currently sitting at 14.26. They're leading the country in WAB points. I don't know what we're calling it. And then South Carolina is right behind them at 12.19. Again, I think it's a very silly thing, but it's an interesting metric to use. And it just sort of points to the fact that the committee, again, is this human element. It's not a computer that is just looking at numbers and sort of punching out 1 through 68. It is, you know, a group of individuals who all have biases and opinions and are given a set of instructions and criterion. And they go into a room and they debate and they argue and they figure out, you know, seatings and placements. And so all of these different things are ways to look at a team. All right, so there are still a few teams battling for that final number one seed. We're taking a closer look at which teams are in a position to secure that spot. Sabrina, who do you think we should talk about first?
- [31:25]
Sabrina Merchant
Well, we've mentioned UConn, South Carolina and UCLA, and I think it's only fitting that we bring up the other team to make the final four in 2025, which was Texas also had a good.
- [31:33]
Shantelle Jennings
Everyone loves a good Final Four repeat. Everyone loves.
- [31:39]
Sabrina Merchant
There's a reason why they made the Final Four. There's a reason why they've been in the top five of the rankings all season. Thus far. They're number four in the net rating. They've got nine Quad One wins, which is, I think, second best in the country behind ucla. They've beaten South Carolina. They've beaten ucla. They've also lost to South Carolina, but that happened at a different time. You know, they've beaten LSU again, also last lsu, but all of their losses are what you would consider good losses. Right. They've lost to LSU, SC and Vanderbilt, and they have a lot of really high quality wins. They also have, I think, a track record of having done well in the tournament. So it's not like the committees and embarrass themselves by putting Texas as a number one seed and worrying that they're not going to do well in the tournament. And, yeah, like just a team that's been very consistent over the course of the regular season. Their strength of schedule is eighth in the country. So they're beaten up on a Lot of good teams and you know, you just look at that team, they defend really well, they get quality production out of a lot of players on their roster. They have a star in Madison Booker. It's all the type of ingredients that you think qualify for a number one seat.
- [32:49]
Shantelle Jennings
So I feel like, as always, Sabrina, I hate debating you when it comes to basketball things just because my natural inclination is like, well, if Sabrina said so, I believe her. But I think if there's one lesson that I took away from the committee's top 16 reveal a little over a week ago now, it's that head to head wins carry a lot of weight. And I think the Vanderbilt win over Texas is going to be doing a lot of work for the Commodores moving forward. Like how rough Texas looked in that game because it's not just that, you know, they have that double digit win over Texas, it's also how Texas looked in that game that they weren't as competitive in that loss. And looking uncompetitive in losses is a huge deterrent and also a part of the criteria that the committee looks at. And so it's sort of that win. Not only is it like carrying a ton of weight for Vanderbilt, I think it's almost doing double duty in terms of A, a win, B Texas being uncompetitive in a loss. At the same time, I would say that Vanderbilt was pretty uncompetitive in a loss earlier this season, a nearly 30 point loss to South Carolina. But again, looking at the committee recency matters. I think the fact that Duke was so high in that top 16 and that Vanderbilt was above Texas, it's sort of the what have you done for me lately matters. And so I do feel like that South Carolina loss will be a further memory in the eyes of the committee. And if Kentucky, what they do the next few games matter. Like Vanderbilt should be rooting for Kentucky since they just beat them by two points. Like Vanderbilt is essentially rooting for everyone they've beaten so far, including yes, they're rooting for everyone at this point because you know, if Kentucky takes down South Carolina, that's another huge boost for Kentucky which will raise their net, which will obviously raise Vanderbilt strength of schedule, their opponent net. All of these things that the committee can take into account, like those things matter. But, but ultimately when we're talking about Vanderbilt versus Texas, which we've done quite a bit, you know, I just feel like that head to head and the fact that Texas was uncompetitive, it's just sort of this double whammy. That the Longhorns are going to really struggle to outrun in some ways. Even though clearly, you know, they have a lot more working for them in their resume than Vanderbilt in some ways. But what they don't have is that head to head win.
- [35:14]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I guess that's where it comes down to like what you value the most. Right. Because I would think beating ucla, beating South Carolina, beating all the other teams that Texas has is going to resonate more. Especially if you're talking about two no brainer number one seeds in the Bruins and the Gamecocks. Whereas Vanderbilt doesn't have those wins like they.
- [35:32]
Shantelle Jennings
But it doesn't matter like they're you or. I think it matters what the committee thinks. And the committee had those facts at their hands when they put Vanderbilt ahead of Texas last week.
- [35:41]
Sabrina Merchant
So it doesn't matter that Vanderbilt has lost to Georgia since then?
- [35:45]
Shantelle Jennings
Nope, that does matter. And so then it sort of becomes, you know, that bad loss that is more recent, you know. No, I think the Georgia loss might actually come back to bite them in the ass. We'll see. But a road loss, I don't know. I am really curious to see how the committees their next ranking comes out on March 1. We should say it'll be fascinating to see how things move around in this. Specifically in the top six. I think we'll be able to see some shifting. I think the other team we should probably discuss here would be lsu. Right.
- [36:16]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. I think we're pretty aligned that an SEC team is going to get this fourth number one seed. And the reason LSU is still in this conversation is because again the net loves them. They're fifth ahead of Vanderbilt, we should note.
- [36:28]
Shantelle Jennings
Yep.
- [36:29]
Sabrina Merchant
Their strength of schedule is. Is always what it is. You know, only the five quad one wins but they at least have you know, a win over Texas, which head to head matters in these discussions. Right. They did lose.
- [36:40]
Shantelle Jennings
Can we point out that there's their non conference strength of schedule is 280.
- [36:45]
Sabrina Merchant
Like it's not good. It's not good.
- [36:48]
Shantelle Jennings
Not very good at all. Like literally ranks among not great teams when you're looking at that sort of the 270 to 290, not necessarily the teams that you want to be grouped in with. Sorry, continue. Right.
- [37:02]
Sabrina Merchant
And I think LSU's already lost their opportunities to really make a big dent. You know, in terms of those marquee wins. They lost to South Carolina, they lost that second game against Texas. The only way I could really see LSU getting into this conversation is if they win the SEC tournament because to do that, you presumably would have to go through two of South Carolina, Texas and Vanderbilt. And Kim Mulkey historically hasn't really cared that much about the SEC tournament. And LSU historically hasn't been ranked that high in the NCAA tournament. They've topped out as a three seed even the year that they won the national title. So I'm putting them in here just because the net seems to really like them. But I don't really think they're in the Texas Vanderbolt conversation unless they somehow emerge as that SEC champion. Because it just hasn't been the the precedent established by the committee in recent years when LSU has had a similar resume of like the absolute crap non conference. But then, hey, we can beat some SEC teams.
- [37:55]
Shantelle Jennings
So as it stands today, we're recording this on Monday afternoon, February 23rd. Obviously a lot of basketball still to be played. Like give me your confidence level ranking of like, think ahead Selection Sunday. If you just did like one through three, like who has your most confidence for that fourth spot and your third most confidence for that fourth spot?
- [38:19]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I think I'm most confident that Texas is going to get that fourth number one seed, then Vanderbilt, then. Really? Anybody you want to throw in that conversation? I thought honestly, Duke might even have a chance to jump into this up until they bet against Clemson over the weekend. But yeah, I think it really comes down to Vanderbilt versus Texas. And I just want to highlight how important this fourth number one seed is. It's not like a cosmetic thing because the way the selection committee has to align the teams, like if there are four SEC teams or whatever in the top 16, they separate them as much as possible at the start of the bracket. So if you are the fourth number one seed, that means you are not a number two seed. Genius. I know, but that means that you were not in UCLA's region, basically, is what that says. So you're either going from I get to be the number one seed and play like Michigan is my number two, or you know, let's say Louisville or Iowa or tcu, as opposed to being a number two seed and then having to play UCLA in the Elite Eight. That is a massive difference in opponent quality because I think we can agree that there's like a tearing between those top five teams and everybody else. So the stakes are actually pretty high here, I think, for teams to want a number one seed. And so I would expect Texas Vanderbilt to take the SEC tournament very seriously to try to bolster their resumes for this particular thing. But yeah, as of now, I think it comes down to Texas. I just don't think head to head should matter as much when Texas has the rest of that resume in their favor.
- [39:44]
Shantelle Jennings
I agree with you. I think it's interesting to sort of look at, for the committee to say we look at the full complement of the season and what's going on and all of these different factors when clearly one element was weighing so heavily. Even though again, like I said, it's sort of two elements because of how poor Texas looked in that game at times. I think I'm with you. I think Texas ultimately ends up getting that fourth number one seed and then there's going to be a lot of bemoaning about how the more things change, the more they stay the same. Because I think at that point we are looking at potentially a repeat of the exact same Final Four as we had a year ago. But I think you bring up a good point about the SEC tournament and let's see if LSU does take it a little bit more seriously. If there is a potential to get that fourth number one seed with a win in the SEC tournament. Like if you're only going to watch one conference tournament, it should be the SEC because essentially it's its own little like mini national championship tournament in a conference tournament. Because getting that fourth number one seed matters that much. Because like you said, it's basically your road out of not having to play UCLA or UConn to get to the Final Four. So you probably want to do that.
- [40:56]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I mean, couldn't agree more.
- [40:57]
Shantelle Jennings
I also feel like full disclosure for our listeners. You know, when we started this exercise and we were looking at different teams last week after our podcast meeting, we were like, oh, who's the third team we should talk about behind Vanderbilt? In Texas, the team that came to mind for us was Michigan. Obviously there's a reason we're not talking about them on Monday morning, and that is because they went down to Iowa City and had probably their worst performance of the year. Sabrina, I don't know if you agree with this, but I felt like watching that game, when you talk about being uncompetitive in a loss and sort of how at this point, you know, looking at Michigan's schedule, you know, they don't have that marquee win. We're talking about the importance of that earlier for Kentucky. I think I feel the same sort of way about Michigan. Like they have some really, really good losses, like three point loss to CLA, three point loss to UConn, three point loss to Vanderbilt, like three three point losses to three of the top five teams in the country. This is a team that I trust a lot in March, I think even though they are such a young sophomore core team, given that they have sort of seen up close, like this is how you get to the Final Four so much this season. They haven't gotten over that hump yet. And then they went down to Iowa City, obviously and met Ava Haydn, which didn't end well for them. But I think coming out of this weekend, I don't feel like Michigan is at all in the conversation for a number one seed anymore.
- [42:23]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I mean, I think about Iowa too, having this nice win over Michigan. They've got some pretty convincing wins over Ohio State, Michigan State, even Maryland, which is very convincing until Maryland did its normal comeback thing. But I really only believe in a Big Ten team making their way into this conversation if they can beat ucla, and that would have to happen presumably in the Big Ten tournament championship. So, yeah, like you said, the reason I like those SEC teams is because they all have one big win that you can point to. This is how good we can be. And Michigan and Iowa don't really have that one. They have a couple good losses and some, some good wins, but not like the resume boosting wins that we've seen in the sec. And that's why you just got to be ucla, like that's the only opportunity you have. And so I don't think we're going to see a Big Ten team in this spot on March 1st. But hey, you know, after whatever happens in Indianapolis, then we can can revisit that discussion.
- [43:15]
Shantelle Jennings
Well, I think looking ahead at just what the regular season holds for Michigan, it's something that, you know, no other team that we've talked about so far has, and that's two top 25 opponents in Ohio State and Maryland. And so they still have two great opportunities for big wins. A rivalry win potential potentially over Ohio State and then a big win over Maryland. So an opportunity to bolster their net, their resume. Those wins, not necessarily the marquee wins that would have happened with Vanderbilt, UCLA or UConn, but still certainly good wins that can also give them momentum heading into the Big Ten tournament. All right, on the other side of this break, we have a listener question. Security and compliance done wrong is a giant headache.
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Shantelle Jennings
All right, Nash sent in a question. Thank you for your question. They said where would you rank Paige Beckers among the best players in the world going into 2026? Not necessarily for future value but present day rank? Would you put her above guards like Sabrina Ionescu and Jackie Young? Could she be third overall behind Asia and Fee? Appreciate you a ton Sabrina.
- [46:06]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. All right, so just setting some context. Paige was second team old WNBA last year which admittedly is not a guard for split. So already in the top 10 players in the WNBA. Which I don't mean to eliminate all the other players in the world, but I just don't know enough about the other players in the world to say that any of them are definitively better than the ones in the WNBA. So let's just say she's already a top 10 player. I think the Jackie Sabrina comparison is interesting.
- [46:34]
Shantelle Jennings
I'm of the belief that Jackie Young
- [46:35]
Sabrina Merchant
is still the best guard in the wnba should lose to Chelsea Gray in the one on one Chelsea is more experienced as the accolades the clutch gene for sure. I think on a day to day basis though just what Jackie can do on both ends of the court is like the most impactful because she is an ace defender. She can Playmake she can score Paige, it's hard to gauge how good she was in Dallas almost because the games were of such little consequence. Right. The last time Paige Beckers played the meaningful game was against South Carolina maybe. So it's been a minute and that's what I'm interested to see. Just like how Dallas can surround her and like put her in situations where she actually has to be good. But I think she's already like a top. I put her ahead of Sabrina Escu just because the shooting ability like I know we think of Sabrina as like an ace three point shooter because of the three point shootout stuff but like in game it hasn't always translated. Yeah, I think Paige is probably already like a top three four guard just because she can do everything but. But I, I'm hesitant to put her like higher than some of the others because again like the games haven't meant anything in the wnpa.
- [47:48]
Shantelle Jennings
I think it'll be interesting to watch her this season because just watching unrivaled it looks like she's bulked up a ton. I don't know if she's like publicly said how much muscle mass she has gained in this off season but like she just looks physically stronger. And I think in the wnba it's such a physical league, it's such a demanding league, like that matters so much. Um, and especially when you think about these rookies, someone especially like Paige who played until literally the last day of the college basketball season and then going right into the draft and then right into their rookie campaign, like it's just such a physically demanding experience that first year in the league for you and I'm curious to see what she looks like, you know, this upcoming season. Granted she played an unrivaled this off season so it's not like she has been just like sitting in an ice bath since the fall. But I'm really curious to see how sort of a bulked up Paige, you know, obviously didn't do that much against Chelsea Gray in the one on one as we saw as she got shut out. But I think you know, some of you know how much of last season where she had one of the best rookie seasons in WNBA history. I think we've talked about that. But like how many of her struggles were team related? How many of her struggles were sort of the longevity of her playing and never having a break? How much of it was needing to get a little bit more physical for what the league demands of players? You know, I think this like freshman to sophomore leap in The WNBA is more fascinating even than the freshman to sophomore leap in college basketball. So it'd be interesting to see one
- [49:22]
Sabrina Merchant
thing I will point out about Paige. When she was at Team USA camp with Kelsey Plumb, Caitlin Clark, Jackie Young, you know, the very best of the best, Chelsea Gray. Like, she looked as good as anybody. And I was a five on five context, you know, as opposed to what we're seeing at Unrival. It's three on three or even one on one, which I don't think she got skunked. I think she got two. But it was a pretty big. Pretty big blowout.
- [49:44]
Shantelle Jennings
Oh, did she?
- [49:45]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, well, we remember the thumbs up to the ref on the way out. That's.
- [49:50]
Shantelle Jennings
I was gonna say that that felt like.
- [49:52]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, sorry.
- [49:55]
Shantelle Jennings
My apologies.
- [49:55]
Sabrina Merchant
Her. Her ability to excel in that Team USA context. Like, I think right now I'd only definitively put, like, Jackie, Chelsea, Kelsey Mitchell ahead of her just because, like, her size gives her so much advantages over a player like Kelsey Plumb. And, yeah, like, everything else she can do is very impressive. So, I mean, hopefully Caitlin comes back healthy and, like, that's a discussion we get to have again, you know, that we've been having since 2021. But for now, like, yeah, top five guard, I think.
- [50:27]
Shantelle Jennings
All right, that's all we've got for you today. We'll be back on Friday with more discussions around women's hoops. Until then, if you haven't already, please follow our show. And if you're watching on YouTube, please subscrib and tell your friends to check us out. And while you're at it, give us a rating. Drop a comment. We'd love to hear from you. On behalf of the Athletic, Sabrina Merchant, I'm Shantelle Jennings. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.
- [50:51]
Sabrina Merchant
No Off Season is hosted by Zena Keda with Chantelle Jennings and Sabrina Merchant. It's produced by Tanika Burrell. Our executive producer is Andrea B. Scott. Our theme music is by Marcus Bugalla. Monica Compton is our video editor. Shannon Ryan is managing editor of women's basketball at the Athletic. Jesse Burton is our head of audio, and Tim McMaster is director of audio operations.
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- [52:29]
Shantelle Jennings
We all have moments where we could have done better. Like cutting your own hair.
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Sabrina Merchant
Yikes.
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Shantelle Jennings
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