← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
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- [00:00]
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- [04:51]
Zena Kaeda
For.
- [04:52]
Sabrina Merchant
The Athletic I'm Zena Kaeda and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. Welcome to the Athletic Women's Basketball show where we are here to talk all things women's hoops. Whether you're a die hard fan that eats, sleeps and breathes the game or you're a casual fan trying to figure out which court you liked more. I'm gonna go with ACC because that Big 12 court was hypnotizing me over the weekend. Don't worry, you're in the right place. We'll explain all what we're talk about. Just you got to make sure to subscribe to this pod wherever you get your pods to stay up to date with us. Also, subscribe to the Athletic Selection Sunday's coming up. There's a lot of content that you're going to need to make sure you are prepared. Now, you may have noticed something a little different in your podcast feed or in your social feed. We release a new trailer for the show. Yes. Because starting next week, we're relaunching this very show as Drumroll, please. No off season because, you know, women's basketball, there's no off season. It's literally NCAA to the wnba. They're a little bit unrivaled, They're a little bit of athletes unlimited, all the above. There's a draft, there's all these things, and there's really no rest for the weary in the universe of women's hoops. So don't worry, this show will still be coming on in the same feed, same patterns of Tuesday and Friday. Don't you worry. We're going to still be here. Sabrina Chantel's lovely faces alongside myself, Ben Pickman and all of our guests. We're still going to give you that same in depth talk that you come to us for. It's just going to be a little bit refreshed. Okay, so no off season is coming your way very soon. But speaking of, I got Chantelle Jennings and Sabrina Merchant here with me because we got to talk about this weekend, y'all. Okay. Of course, that ACC court was gorgeous, but there were a lot of courts in action over the course of the weekend because it was conference tourney time. So we're going to talk a bit about the highlights from this past weekend's conference tournaments and the impact of the outcomes of those tournaments and how they may be impacting some teams ahead of the Big Dance. So it's going to be like the first time in a long time that conference tournaments actually mean something. I don't know if you guys remember, like back in the day, conference tournaments would happen, wouldn't have a lot of impact on where people landed in the tournament. But this year it's a little different, asking questions like, will UCLA's win over USC redeem their chance for a number one overall seed? How high is Duke ceiling? I can't wait to hear Sabrina's thoughts on this one. After they beat Notre Dame and UNC and NC State, is South Carolina a favorite to win after taking down Texas in a very dominant fashion? There is a lot to cover, so let's go ahead, get to it, get the experts on. We're going to break it all down and jump right in. So first, in order to look ahead, we gotta look back, we gotta frame this conversation a little bit. And, Sabrina, I'm gonna ask you to come in and help me get some context for the folks listening. Because back in the day, conference tournaments were fun. Don't get me wrong. They still had that March feel to them, but there wasn't so much riding on them in terms of how they could impact where a team landed. So give us some context of the conference tournament's history and then how this year has changed up a little bit.
- [08:33]
Chantel Jennings
So with the conference tournaments, I think every program sort of approaches them differently. I know, you know, Kim Mulkey had some comments this week about how she doesn't really like them. It's just extra basketball that's unnecessary to, you know, bang her team up a little bit further until they get into the NCAA tournament. Uh, some coaches really do like them because in these big conferences where, you know, you occasionally have an imbalanced schedule, this is the best way for everybody to sort of be in the same pile and have to be in the same bracket, you know, to be the conference tournament champion. I can see, you know, pros and cons to both of them. But I will say, in this era of mega conferences, when you have South Carolina and Texas in the same conference and you have, you know, well, USC and UCLA have always been in the same conference, but when they have to meet in the final, you know, of the Big Ten tournament, there are just so many good teams that you have to face en route to winning a conference championship in the power conferences that there is a lot more opportunity to collect marquee wins, and there is a lot more opportunity to, I don't know, potentially not perform up to the stage that you were hoping to at this time of the year. So I think just with so much of the talent concentrated into these four particular leagues, really, three particular leagues, there's just a lot of opportunity for big wins, big statement games, and a lot for the committee to chew on as they headed to selection Sunday.
- [09:51]
Sabrina Merchant
Just a little bit more visibility into the greatness of some teams and also an opportunity for the teams that were gaining momentum at the end of the regular season to either build on that or for people to actually check, like, who's real or who's not. So, Chantel, I'm gonna shift it to you. When you look at some of these tournaments that happened across the course of the weekend, who do you think helped secure themselves a number one seed?
- [10:14]
Zena Kaeda
Sabrina's point was interesting, and we had actually asked Rory Harmon about this last week on the podcast. Basically, like the differences, the different challenges between winning a regular season championship and a tournament championship, because it's like you can play, you know, a ton of games across a few months or you play three games in a 44 hour period and it sort of feels. She said, oh, well, that's the fun time. It feels like aau, like it goes back to your, like high school playing days. And I think we saw some teams show out in that way, whether they were starting in like the first round of their tournament and could pick up a few wins or, you know, you know, they were a top four seed in their respective conference and I got a bye until, you know, the third day of the tournament. But in terms of teams that got a number one seed, I think there's probably five in the conversation that it's worth talking about. Obviously UCLA and USC are up there, the two LA schools in my beloved Big Ten, my alma maters conference. So weird to see two Los Angeles schools playing in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship. But you know, college, amateur sports, right? South Carolina and Texas and then UConn. And so I think, you know, it'll be interesting to see if the ACC gets a number one seed here. I don't think the Big 12 will, but I would say those are the five teams that when we talk about number one seeds, those feel like the five most obvious in my conversation.
- [11:30]
Sabrina Merchant
Now I gotta ask because, Sabrina, you said you started this with there's really three power conferences and now, Chantelle, you've alluded to the Big 12 not getting a number one seed, but TCU played their butts off this weekend and have been playing really well. Being able to eke out and squeak out some wins in order to not only get the regular season championship in the Big 12, but also the conference tournament. Why are we not looking at them in this conversation?
- [11:59]
Chantel Jennings
I think we look at those top teams in the net. You know, that's the five that Chantel mentioned. And TCU hasn't beaten any of them. Like they've all kind of beaten one another. You know, UCLA has wins over South Carolina and USC. UConn has beaten South Carolina. Texas has beaten South Carolina as well. Like TCU played, South Carolina didn't go very well and they didn't have an opportunity against either of the other teams. They've done very well against like their tier of teams. Which is why I think a number two seed makes a lot of sense for tcu because they have beaten NC State. They have beaten Notre Dame. But in terms of the number one seed, I just don't think that winning the Big 12 is in the same caliber as, you know, winning the Big Ten or the sec. And again, just in terms of their schedule, they haven't done enough to prove that they can compete at the same level that those other teams did during the course of the regular season.
- [12:49]
Zena Kaeda
I feel like that separation, like the margin between the number one and the number eight team, the top one seed and the worst, quote, unquote, you know, the fourth best two seed, like there is not a ton of difference between those two teams, which is what I think makes this season so interesting. More so than any season I can remember. You know, this isn't a chalk year. This isn't a year you can look at the bracket at any point, I think, even though we haven't seen it yet and say like, I know exactly who's going to make it to the Final four. Like, I don't know who's going to make it to the sweet 16, because I think especially with these top teams, like Sabrina said, we've seen those top five teams sort of that elite tier beat one another and then there's the group right below them. But we also. It's not like last season where you think back to South Carolina just sort of like running through the SEC regular season, postseason, their non conference games, and it was like, this team is the best team in the country. They show up every single game. Maybe there are like minutes here and there where they're not absolutely elite, but like by and large a great product on the floor. I think that's the one thing we can say about these like teams that are in the like one seed conversation is like, we've seen them play some pretty rough basketball this year too. Like, I mean, as good as USC has been against ucla, we watched them not put a field goal up against the Bruins for almost nine minutes in a decisive fourth quarter of a championship game this Sunday. Like, that's, that's some pretty scary stuff for a team that has a shot at the national championship. And so. But every team has had that, right? Like, we've seen UConn look super confused at times. UCLA, like USC has been the kryptonite. Like we've seen USC just sort of have no idea what to do against this team that seem forever in the Pac 12. And now the Big Ten, South Carolina on the floor against UConn got run out of their own building. Texas SEC championship game. Like, I don't know where that offense went. And so it's just sort of like we've seen really elite teams that it's like, I can totally imagine these five teams hoisting the national championship trophy, but it also doesn't take much to imagine what a Sweet 16 loss could look like. Right. Like, and so I think that's the difference here is like, the difference between, you know, in the past where it's like, oh, these four teams are getting to the Final Four. Put it in Sharpie now, like, the first few rounds are what they are. There'll be some good games, but these teams will get through. I don't think we can say that this year. That said, I do think those five teams have separated themselves with their resumes to be. To have earned themselves a spot in that one seed conversation.
- [15:12]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. And I think everything that you saw this weekend in the conference tournaments are an indication of everything that you're mentioning, the amount of upsets that happened in the various conferences. Like, the main moment I can think of last year that was super close and, like, going to be a crazy upset was the Tennessee, South Carolina game. Right. And Camila Cardoso hits that bank shot. And there were so many games this year in comparison, in the rounds leading up to the conference championships that had similar moments throughout the weekend. But now Sabrina Chantelle has said five teams, that's not how this works. It's not how the brackets work. You can't have five number ones. You can have four number ones. So if you were to choose four number ones out of that five, who.
- [15:57]
Zena Kaeda
Are your Be the committee? Sabrina, I just want to say how.
- [15:59]
Chantel Jennings
Much I hate this exercise, and I don't like it. Just to reiterate that. God, I think ucla, South Carolina immediately have to be number ones, which is strange because South Carolina wasn't even a number one at the last seating reveal and frankly cannot understand how that happened. But God, at the moment, I think I would leave out UConn. So the four of those, see, I.
- [16:31]
Zena Kaeda
Think Texas gets left out.
- [16:33]
Sabrina Merchant
And why is that?
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Zena Kaeda
Well, you look at the factors the committee takes into account and look at sort of the recent games. You look at Texas, how they showed up in that SEC championship game, and I think you look at UConn and they have the number one net ranking. And yes, they were a two in the last reveal. But I do think that the committee takes net sort of that overall ranking that takes a ton of different factors into account, including efficiency on the offensive and defensive end as well as your, like, best wins. I don't know. I think I think UConn could. And then, of course, I'll like. There's going to be a ton of people that are up in arms, but UConn gets, like, the red carpet laid out for them for everything. But, you know, I think winning on the road at South Carolina is going to hold a lot of weight, potentially, in those conversations. Texas beat South Carolina at home. They lost by 17 on the road, and then they didn't look like they showed up in the SEC title game. And so I think there are those sort of factors that come into play, too. So I feel like probably between those two teams, that would be the fourth number one seed, I think, is it's between UConn and Texas, which would mean then that they would be playing ultimately in the same region, which would be a pretty. Pretty damn good game.
- [17:42]
Chantel Jennings
Yeah. To me, if UConn wasn't a number one seed after they beat South Carolina, which they were not in the latest reveal after they had already beaten South Carolina, then there's nothing that they can really have done in the interim to raise their profile, in my opinion.
- [17:54]
Sabrina Merchant
Do you both think that the committee has to have a level of recency bias in order to make their decision?
- [18:00]
Zena Kaeda
I don't know exactly. I mean, it's all sort of kept behind closed doors to an extent to sort of keep external noise out. But I do think you look at how a team is playing, like, you look at their overall resume, but also you look at what they're doing right now. I mean, I think if South Carolina can move from a two in the last round or in the last top 16, reveal to the number two overall. So a one seed as two overall, like, there's that room for what they have done late. And I think you look at what South Carolina has done late, what they did during the SEC tournament, and I think they've earned that number one seed as well.
- [18:31]
Sabrina Merchant
Mm. Okay. On the topic of what have you done for me lately? Mm, mm, mm, mm. Oh, God. I just showed my age. But, Janet Jackson, what have you done for me lately? If you have not heard that song, go listen to it. It's wonderful. All right, well, that makes sense for the number one seeds if I'm choosing between the five that you laid out. Chantelle. I think I also am putting Texas out and putting them as a number two seed, and I'm putting the dominance that UConn has shown pretty consistently. As of late, I'm a little bit biased myself. As of late, I'm putting them into my top four seeds, but let's talk about the number four seeds because I don't quite understand the importance of it. And I think there's some people that might not get why it's important to, you know, get a number four seeds, et cetera, in the top 16. And so, Chantel, I'm going to ask you to break it down for me and for whoever is listening, why is it important if you're looking to get into the top 16 to be a number four seed?
- [19:38]
Zena Kaeda
So in the women's college basketball tournament, the top 16 teams, which is why we have the top 16 reveal throughout the season and why people care about that so much, those 16 teams host the first weekend of the tournament. So on the men's side, they go to neutral sites and on the women's side, they host at campus sites. And so the difference between the number 16 and the number 17 overall team is pretty significant. You know, like, we're here sort of like splitting hairs between the last number one seed and the best number two seed. Both of those teams will get to host the last number four seed. So the number 16 team overall, they get to host. And so that means you get to, like, sleep in your own bed. If you're a player, if you're a coach, you don't have to travel. You don't have to worry about jet lag. You don't have to worry about, you know, how your body recovered from flight or travel. Your fans are there, which I think we can all realize the importance of that. Like, South Carolina fans travel really well. They didn't have to travel far to Greenville, South Carolina, to make that arena a home court advantage for South Carolina in that SEC championship game. You get to do that in the first two rounds. And I think it's also sort of a way that, you know, you grow the game in your own backyard as a team that, you know, come and watch these tournament games. You don't have to travel to these NBA arenas or these WNBA arenas to go watch games. Like, you just drive down the street to the university and you can see them. And so getting one of those top 16 positions, it doesn't guarantee that you're going to get out of that, out of your home court, necessarily into the sweet 16. But it's certainly a leg up in every sense of the word.
- [21:06]
Sabrina Merchant
Definitely a lot easier to guard your yard as opposed to go somewhere else and have to do that. So this is kind of like the bubble of the. The number one, you know, the bubble of the top hosting teams. And I'm curious, Sabrina when you look at this season, regular season, but then also, obviously, everything that happened over the course of this past weekend with conference tournaments, any teams you think that played themselves into an opportunity to host a game or played themselves out of hosting.
- [21:33]
Chantel Jennings
A game, yeah, it's been a weird time for the four seeds. I don't think any of them really particularly distinguished themselves in terms of making sure that they held onto this spot, other than potentially, Baylor getting to the Big 12 title game and putting a real scare into TCU. Baylor has not been in the top 16 in either of the previous reveals, and I would be pretty shocked if the Bears were not in the top 16 when the bracket comes out, you know, on Selection Sunday. But, you know, if you're like, Tennessee, I'm a little concerned, you know, that you're going to be holding on to that top 16 spot. Oklahoma, Kentucky, I think they're kind of okay. You know, no one has really usurped them in those positions. But, like, you look at teams like Florida State, Michigan State, you know, even like, further down the line, like Iowa, a chance to, like, really get some big wins, to jump into that conversation, didn't really happen in their conference tournaments. So to me, like, Tennessee is the team that I would have an eye on to really be worried, you know, are we gonna be able to play in Knoxville come the start of the NCAA tournament, And Baylor, if they're not hosting? Like, I would be pretty disappointed if I were Nikki Colin in that team.
- [22:36]
Sabrina Merchant
Okay. What about you, Chantel? Any teams that played themselves into hosting or out of hosting?
- [22:42]
Zena Kaeda
Well, I was just looking back at Mark Schindler's most recent bracket watch he did for the Athletic, and he had Maryland as a four seed. And obviously the Terrapins came into the Big Ten tournament and were pretty uncompetitive against a very hot Michigan team. Like, let's give. Let's give the Wolverines their credit. That young team played really, really well through the Big Ten tournament. But Maryland is a team that I think, you know, they weren't in the most recent reveal for the top 16. And so, you know, take. Take it into account where it's sort of a pundit or the committee themselves, but I would say Maryland is a team that, if you're considering them as a home host, I don't. I don't see them hosting anymore.
- [23:19]
Sabrina Merchant
Mm. Yeah, that game was brutal. If you didn't watch it, they lost. Maryland lost to Michigan 98, 71. There was a point where I think it was the second quarter that Michigan disappeared after keeping Maryland to just nine points in the first quarter. Michigan disappeared, and then they showed back up in the second half, allowed Maryland to get rid of a like 22 point deficit, I think it was, and then just obliterated them in the second half. It was very uncharacteristic of what we've seen out of Maryland all year. So I'd agree with you. In a team that probably played themselves out of hosting, I'm wondering when it comes to hosting, you know, when you talk about like some of the limitations that the bracket has, sometimes it's like, you know, certain teams can't. There's all these rules about like, they're. If you're in the same conference and how you're seated across the brackets, you can't meet up with certain teams in your, your conference, in certain rounds, etc. Are there any limits on the amount of teams in a conference that host.
- [24:25]
Zena Kaeda
Nope.
- [24:25]
Chantel Jennings
Nope.
- [24:25]
Zena Kaeda
I think the main one you're talking about is if you're from the same conference, the committee's supposed to do everything they can to make sure that you don't face one another until the sweet 16.
- [24:33]
Sabrina Merchant
Got it. Okay.
- [24:34]
Zena Kaeda
And I think that that'll be even more challenging now since we have these mega conferences. I think it can be done, but there might be some sort of creative seeding. And so you also might see some situations where you're like, this team is actually the seed and now they're at the seed and it's like, well, they couldn't play. You know, we're not going to see an early round game between, you know, two SEC teams or two Big Ten teams, because they're supposed to do everything they can to make sure that doesn't happen.
- [24:57]
Sabrina Merchant
Okay. Okay, cool. Thank you. Just want to make sure. I was thinking about that properly. This is actually great that we're talking about this because thinking of teams that have played themselves in or out of hosting because it is a perfect segue to our next conversation about stock up, stock down. Because all throughout the season, whether you're a fan of a particular team or you've just been watching the teams more generally, there are certain, certain teams that have been moving up and down the register in terms of being teams that should be in the tournament and have locked in their space and their, their place in the tournament. And then there are some teams that have just been on the cusp or you're not sure where they're going to land, but as of late, potentially have been playing incredibly well. And you're like, let me, let me Buy some shares of that. I'm. I'm gonna invest in that. I like the way that this team is looking and performing to get themselves positioned for this tournament. So. So let's talk about stock up, stock down coming out of these conference tournaments. Chantel, I'm going to start with you. What teams are you going to go buy some stocks in? And they've improved over the course of this past weekend.
- [26:02]
Zena Kaeda
Well, I've already talked about one of those teams. It's Michigan. And I think this is the situation where, you know, you see a group or you see a team that has a large group of freshmen. You know, Michigan starts three freshmen, including the Big Ten freshman of the year, who is not the player that after week one of the season, we're like, silas Swords is going to be the Big Ten freshman of the year. No, it was actually Minnesota native Olivia.
- [26:23]
Chantel Jennings
Olson Coe Big Ten freshman of the year for the Ohio State people. But, yeah, yeah, I know.
- [26:29]
Zena Kaeda
I said co. I said co. Don't worry. And so you look at freshmen and it's like, usually you see that big jump between a freshman and sophomore season when they've had more time in the system, had more time in the weight room, whatnot, you know, sort of adjust to that life. But as we've said all year, the freshmen are not freshmen. They gelled faster. I think they could be a team. Mark had them as a seven in his most recent bracket watch. And I was like, that is a dangerous seven seed. Because I also think you get the fearlessness that we saw in the season opener against South Carolina, where it's like, you know, you've got Jordan Hobbs who's out there like the vet, who's like, I'm laying it all on the floor for this go around. And then you've got the freshmen that are like, nah, let's do it. Like, let's play. I think sort of similar is Iowa in. Not that they have as many freshmen, but that they have quite a few new rotational players, including, obviously, starter Lucy Olson, who has tournament experience, but not with this team. But it's a new group together. I thought Iowa looked really, really good. And when they're clicking and that offense is going. And I think in the last, you know, six weeks or so, Lucy has really settled into that primary scorer role and not deferring as much and knocking down more shots. And Hannah Stolke was able to move back over to the five position, which has allowed them to sort of look more like themselves. The last team, I'll note, would be Vanderbilt, sort of similar to Michigan. You got a freshman and a sophomore who, as we've talked about on the show a lot, Shea Ralph puts a ton on their shoulders. That takes a lot to coach, but it takes a lot to learn how to play together when you both are shouldering so much. SEC is a really, really hard conference, but if Mikayla Blakes and Camille Pierre and Ayanna Moore start going like, watch out, that could be a team that could surprise some people.
- [27:59]
Sabrina Merchant
I love those picks, especially Michigan. And also, you know, Iowa, you know, in the tournament upsetting Michigan state, the number 60, they were seated 11th. Like, I think everyone put a lot of people on notice after that game. Everyone knows that Lucy Olsen's been a great scorer. That's what she was. She was brought in to do was kind of fill in the stop gap behind Caitlin Clark. But early in the season there was like, okay, clearly this is not Caitlin Clark. Not the same sort of output and volume, but she has really stepped up, I think 19 and 21 in those two wins that they had over the course of the weekend. Really, really great performance out of both of those teams. I like Vanderbilt too. Something about the Youngins stepping up between Michigan and Vanderbilt. Sabrina, I gotta ask you, Iowa, Michigan and Vanderbilt, anyone else you're buying stock in?
- [28:48]
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, I feel a little silly about this considering Chantelle and I just sold them heading into the conference tournaments. But Georgia Tech, I thought looked really good at the ACC tournament. It's, you know, they, they had not been playing good defense over the course of the last few weeks of the regular season, but they really tightened it up in Greensboro. You know, they only lose by one. You know, in their loss in the quarterfinals, they had a really nice win over Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech's is the kind of team that's like really annoying to game plan for because they take all the shots that you want them to take, right? Like they don't really get to the rim that often. They don't take a lot of threes, but they're so good in the mid range and like as a defense you want to concede those, but then also they just make so many of them. But Tony Morgan Carraden, I think have had a really nice season so far and they are shooting the ball pretty well at this point. So I like them quite a bit. And Oklahoma State, I thought a nice run in the Big 12 tournament. Staley Hurd just, I'm a sucker for a player who wears glasses, not goggles while they're playing. And I really hope she has some sort of eyewear nil deal, but just hits a lot of clutch shots. And I love. There's just a certain toughness to Oklahoma State that really comes off when they're playing like they can be down by whatever margin. You know, they had a win over TCU earlier in the season where they're down by double digits in the fourth quarter and managed to win that game. They were down by double digits to Baylor in the semifinal and came back and forced overtime, ultimately falling just a little bit short. But I think, you know, heard magasa like, it's just a really fun, really scrappy team that I think is just not on the national radar. Right. And I don't know, I thought. I thought they had a really excellent performance in the conference tournament. And when they shoot the ball well, like, they're just. They play so hard. And I know that, like, that's not like a measurable skill, but they play really, really hard.
- [30:24]
Zena Kaeda
I have two big 12 follow ups for you, Sabrina. One, you said she's one of your favorites. Who wears glasses and not goggles. I'm just trying to rack my brain for a list of like, three. Sure, sure. And my second follow up is, can you please defend your stance on the Big 12 court before we move any further? Xena brought it up in the intro. I felt like this was a universal truth.
- [30:43]
Chantel Jennings
So Olivia Miles wears glasses when she's warming up, but not when she plays.
- [30:47]
Zena Kaeda
Not the same thing.
- [30:48]
Chantel Jennings
Not the same thing. But still on the court in glasses if that's something you want to, you know, consume if you get to a Notre Dame game a little bit early. Yeah.
- [30:57]
Zena Kaeda
This is like such sicko, like, basketball sicko mode.
- [31:00]
Chantel Jennings
As far as the Big 12 court, I don't really see what the problem was. Like, they were advertising the Big 12. It was just 12 written over and over again. And the way the lined up was like this really nice diamond pattern, which I just love geometric patterns. I mean, are we like anti parquet and like, little, you know, variations in basketball?
- [31:19]
Zena Kaeda
At least a wood flooring, like the twelves, Roman numeral. Like, it was so distracting.
- [31:26]
Sabrina Merchant
It just felt like it was moving a lot, you know? And the thing is, I think it was because of the diamond pattern, because I was trying to think, like, I don't mind the Charlotte Hornets, like their little hexagonal.
- [31:37]
Chantel Jennings
Right. I like the hexagons. Yeah.
- [31:39]
Sabrina Merchant
You know, like, I don't mind that. But for something about the 12, it just felt like the depth of the court was a little, like, kept going in and out for me. But that's.
- [31:46]
Chantel Jennings
I don't really get it. I thought, like, the court kept bringing me back, and I gotta be honest, I watched a lot more Big 12 this weekend than I normally do. I think it was a big part of it.
- [31:53]
Zena Kaeda
I just want to know, like, did they. Did they make this decision with the television viewers in mind? Because maybe it looked better in person. I don't watch the NBA, but I just googled the Charlotte Hornets court. It doesn't look like the contrast on that court is as drastic as the Big 12 one.
- [32:07]
Sabrina Merchant
That's what I'm saying. There was, like, a depth aspect.
- [32:09]
Zena Kaeda
Yeah, it's just like. It's a few hues off. I would say, like, okay, sure, maybe if. If the Big 12 weren't as drastic, I would feel differently. But it was just like I. And it's not like I have an amazing TV that's like super high def and like breaking out all these things. It was just like I was watching. I was like, I'm getting a headache from this. And you have the moving people, the moving ball, the moving officials, and then it feels like the court is.
- [32:31]
Chantel Jennings
All of those things are already moving. Okay. Every game has a moving ball.
- [32:35]
Sabrina Merchant
Chantel, baby, baby girl, you're looked like it was moving. No, that's what I'm saying.
- [32:39]
Zena Kaeda
You don't want the court moving under all of those things that are already moving. And as someone that professionally watches basketball, I just.
- [32:45]
Chantel Jennings
I thought it was a good one.
- [32:46]
Sabrina Merchant
I'm a realist in here. I'm going to reel us in here. Clearly, the game of basketball got to our heads over the course of the weekend. But on the point of things that maybe were going a little bit too deep in the wrong direction, other than courts, stock down any teams that you're like, ooh, I might need to sell a few of these stocks before we get into the tournament, because they're not looking the way that I thought they were looking throughout the season.
- [33:13]
Chantel Jennings
Well, I'll start with one team that did not make our number one seed discussion, which might have a week ago, and that is Notre Dame. You know, Notre Dame has now lost three of their last five games, admittedly to some pretty good teams. North Carolina State, Duke and Florida State, all of which will be in the tournament, two of which will be hosting games. But I think there's just something a little off about the way they're playing. You know, there isn't that hectic, frenetic energy that they have on defense, like the joy that they get on transition plays. A lot of that has been missing some, just like the connection between Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles hasn't been quite what it has been, you know, for most of the regular season. They've had some really, really long locker room meetings after their losses. I think the media that was on site said that Neil Ivey took more than 70 minutes to come out after they lost to Florida State. And there was a similar timeframe after they lost to Duke in the ACC tournament. Which if you're spending that long in the locker room, like it's not because you're having a good time, that's. That's never the case.
- [34:08]
Zena Kaeda
That's a lot of time in the locker room post game.
- [34:11]
Chantel Jennings
So I'm a little worried about Notre Dame. You know, on paper they have all of the talent you'd want for a national title team. We mentioned that Tier one. I think they've beaten the most teams in that quintet. You know, they've beaten Texas, USC and UConn this season. But it's kind of about how you're playing right now. And in the moment, this is a team that isn't quite connecting. There's some defensive vulnerabilities. You know, teams are really targeting Madi West Belt and it's the first time where I've wondered like, oh yeah, she only came back in January and still isn't in the best shape that she could be after dealing with this foot surgery. So that's the number one team that I watched this weekend and thought I really don't love them as much as I did coming into the weekend.
- [34:50]
Sabrina Merchant
I think it's important to lay out Notre Dame season. Like I'm actually going to just like read this because it has been a roller coaster and it's like the worst time for the ride to end going right into the tournament. So they start the season on a six game win streak including a win over usc. Then they lose to tcu, who's ranked at the moment, and Utah. And then after that they get their act together for 19 games, 19 game win streak which included Georgia Tech, who we've discussed, Texas, who we've discussed, UConn, UNC, Cal, Duke, and then they lost in double overtime to NC State and then they lost to Florida State. Then they went over to Louisville and then they lose to Duke. That's been their season. And I think for the longest we've just been focusing on that 19 game win streak of just like, oh, they got it together after the loss of TCU in Utah. It was a weird moment. They were out in a, you know, a warm tropical place, they might have been a little distracted. Here's the real Notre Dame that we've been seeing all season. And then these last few games, it's just been like, Chantel, what terrible timing for Notre Dame to not have their ish together before the tournament.
- [36:07]
Zena Kaeda
Yeah, I just feel like this is a team. One of the big reasons why we saw so much offensive improvement from them this year is because of the three point shooting. Olivia Miles three point percentage is way, way up. Like what a way to increase your WNBA stock. Like start shooting 40% from behind the arc when you haven't averaged nearly that during your career. But both Olivia Miles and Hannah hidalgo were shooting 40%. And I think if you look at their losses recently as a team, they haven't shot well. And as individuals, I think Olivia shot 40% against Duke to a five. Hannah went zero of one. And you know, I think it's worth noting early on in that game I had noticed Hannah sort of like shaking her right arm a little bit and her wrist while they were, you know, when she didn't have the ball in her hands. And I had sent a text to Sabrina and Ben, I think about like, you know, we should really keep an eye on this because I'll be curious if this impacts her shooting at all. She only took 13 against. She usually averages 4 a game. She was 0 of 1. Usually averages 4. And so is this reading too much into something that she was doing during the game? Perhaps. But I also think at this point in the season when you're sort of splitting hairs between these teams, you can't read too much into anything. All of this matters. All of this matters. In terms of the big picture, the little things really do matter. This is a group that is really veteran that knows that this is sort of their last go at it. Maddy West Belt and Sony Citron are out. Olivia Miles could come back. But you know, I think we all are sort of of the mind that she's headed out to. So like, this is a group that has to do this now. And I do wonder if that sort of finish line nearing is, is impacting the team at all and sort of making people a little more tight because it was that looseness they played with earlier in the year that I think we all sort of were just enamored with. And on a similar note, I would say another team that's, you know, the stock has gone down just because of questions around health would be lsu. Flaje Johnson did not play in The SEC tournament, Kim Mulkey said it was precautionary, it was a shin issue, shin inflammation issue. But Flaje wore a boot on the sideline. Was a fantastic, you know, by all accounts from the tv, fantastic player, coach, her teammates, wonderful hype woman on the bench, which you would expect. You know, she's a great teammate, but sort of her, her availability feels like it could be in question. And then Anissa Morrow obviously went down during the SEC tournament, which was a scary moment. And so I think that's. You know, we've talked a lot about LSU needing their big three to show up. If literally two of them can't show up on the floor, that changes their stock significantly. If one of their three can't show up on the floor, that changes their stock significantly.
- [38:30]
Sabrina Merchant
Absolutely. I mean Anissa and Flauje are the reason why people buy stock in lsu, especially with the way that their offense is so predicated on them. And let's be real, the interior defense is also predicated on Anissa Morrow being able to play that four or five position so well in the way that she does. Before we get into that. Cause I do want to talk a little bit about the injuries aspect and how that impacts stock my stock up Duke, I'm sorry, this six game win streak that they're on, these amazing performances that they've been putting on for everyone defensively especially. I'm impressed. And I also think like it's really dope to see the type, the ways in which Ashton Jackson and Toby Fournier like great but Alucia Okanawa girl, like let me put some respect on your name. I don't think I realized just how pivotal she could have been particularly offensively. She's been a great rebounder all year and also defender, but just also being able to add some points to the, to the final score there ACC champions beating NC State Notre Dame along the way. Like, like I'm definitely stock up there. My stock is absolutely down in Notre Dame. Um, I didn't even think about stock down and from an LSU perspective. But yeah, the injuries are an aspect and there's some other teams that have been flirting with injuries or we're not sure, you know, where recent injuries or calls of injury could impact them. I think about NC State Isaiah James coming out of that last game in the ACC championship, coming back not looking as great as she was earlier on. She is their number one scorer. She is the glue behind everything they do in the, in the pace with which they play Kansas State. Aoka Lee, I Know, we, we've had our moments on the Big 12 here, but she is a major factor with what the Wildcats do and how good they can be. When you're thinking about this stock up, stock down exercise and how these potential injuries are, you know, with Aoka, it has been an injury and it's been a long standing one. How does that impact the stock in which you're investing in or not investing in going into the tournament?
- [40:40]
Chantel Jennings
Well, I think Ayoka Lee is the number one injury concern with the tournament because Kansas State has played without her for, you know, about a month now. She had a five minute session against Kansas, which is very weird, where I guess they decided she might have been ready to come back, but isn't ready to come back. I'm sort of operating under the assumption that the Wildcats will not have Lee and if they don't, this is a team that I wouldn't even expect to get out of the first weekend. If they do, just how annoying would that be for a team if you're on the three line and you are facing like number six Kansas State and all of a sudden there's Heyoka Lee, one of the best players in the country and you have to deal with that.
- [41:11]
Sabrina Merchant
But Right. Changes her whole game plan.
- [41:15]
Chantel Jennings
As far as other injuries, I wanted to note Ohio State. They ended their semifinal against UCLA without Jelani Cambridge and Cody McMahon. Jelani was icing her leg afterwards and you know, no update yet from Kevin McGuff at Ohio State, but that is obviously an enormous loss. Like their first loss of the season came without Jelani and they were already getting wrecked by UCLA when those two went down. So not a great tournament for the Buckeyes even before the injuries. Yeah, so that's, that's just another team I have my eye on in terms of like, is it a stock down, is it just an injury situation?
- [41:46]
Zena Kaeda
I think just the last thing to add on Kansas State, like, I think Kansas State is a really interesting teams in terms of, or a team that we can look at in terms of how important the committee views the net because at the last reveal at the end of February, they were the number 15 team. So they would be hosting. It's not like Ayoka played up until that game and she's only missed games since. She's played fewer games this season and she's playing less than 20 minutes a game, probably lower now since that five minute game. The committee is aware of this and they still put her at 15. But I think a part of it is because their net Is nine. And so I think this might be an interesting place where we can say, how much does the committee truly value net in terms of these placements? Because that would be quite the surprise. But, yeah, they were 15 in the last top 16 reveal. I have to think that has to do a lot with nit.
- [42:31]
Sabrina Merchant
One thing about this whole exercise about where these teams end up in the bracket, it is completely dependent upon the committee and their thoughts on what matters more. Whether it's the quad one wins the net ratings, like, over. Is it the recency bias of what you've been doing lately versus what you did as a full product of the season? Like, it is a new every year. You really can't guess how they're gonna, you know, come up with this. And that's why it's all. That's why selection Sunday is so fun, because it's like, oh, really? This is where you. Oh, okay. Did not know that we were on this wavelength. Got it. Cool. And that's not just us as fans and the audience and in the media. This is the teams. That's why these reactions in real time, seeing some of these teams say, oh, you put us at number two. Oh, okay. Good to know. Good to know. But now there's also some teams that are also just shocked to be in the. In the party, right? And they're. And they're trying to figure out if they're going to be a part of the conversation. These are the teams that are notoriously known as being, quote, on the bubble. Sabrina, I'll have you explain to us, like, what does being on the bubble mean when it comes to the NCAA tournament?
- [43:43]
Zena Kaeda
Right?
- [43:43]
Chantel Jennings
So the NCAA tournament has 68 teams. 64 of them are, you know, playing on the theoretical of the tournament, which is Friday, March 21. But there are four first four games that happen ahead of time. So we get to a total of 68. That includes 31 automatic qualifiers. So the teams that win their conference tournaments automatically get a ticket into the tournament. And then the other 37 are, you know, just whoever has the best resumes from the other teams that didn't win their conference tournaments. And that's why it's. It's, you know, tricky when you look at the net and you see a team that's like, in the 60s, like, oh, 68 teams make it. They should make it, but really not because you need to be in that top 37 of the other teams. So you really can only start to feel comfortable if you're in, like, the top 40, 45 of the remaining teams. And that's where, you know, we get into the conversation of like bid thieves and who are you rooting for in the conference tournaments if you are one of those teams that happens to be on the bubble, and we'll qualify the bubble as the teams that are, you know, just trying to make it into.
- [44:43]
Sabrina Merchant
That field of 68 bid thieves is fighting words. If somebody said I stole a bid from someone. But we know that that happens, right? And we put quotations around stole because it does happen in which potentially a mid major can come in and get a bid that would have theoretically gone to a major conference school. Now, as someone that played in the mid major, but we never, never went to the tournament. It was not something that we were thinking of in terms of how many schools out of the Ivy League could get into the tournament. Times have changed, folks. That is literally a conversation. I'm not even saying that just because I went to an Ivy League school. No, that is literally a conversation that is happening right now is that there could potentially be three schools out of the Ivy League that could qualify or could be considered to be in the tournament. So let's take a step back. And not just the Ivy League, but like talk about mid majors. Has that happened before where a mid major conference has had three teams get into the tournament? Is that possible? Even Chantel?
- [45:49]
Zena Kaeda
I don't recall. My memory is not as good as some people on this podcast.
- [45:53]
Sabrina Merchant
But I believe you're not talking about me.
- [45:58]
Zena Kaeda
No, I think that would be pretty surprising. And it's interesting when it becomes like bid stealing because you look at this season and it's sort of like, you know, Richmond is the team that everyone's talking about because they were the favorites out of the 810 won the regular season. Number one seed in that tournament. They lose to St. Joe's on a buzzer beater in the semis. Ultimately, George Mason takes the auto bid, earns the auto bid from the 8:10. But Richmond is a team that was in the top 25 for me and Sabrina at multiple points during the late end of the season. I think they're in. And so now you have a conference in the 810 which everyone assumed was only going to be a single bid conference that's going to get two. So then someone on the quote unquote bubble is going to get knocked off. And what's interesting is that this year, without the PAC 12, there's one less auto bid team in this year, auto qualifying team in this year because there used to be 32 conferences. Now there's only 31. So arguably there's more spots. Not arguably, just like math says that there's more spots for auto at large for Chantelle. Yeah, exactly. I'm going to argue math. Math. It's that there is, there is, there should be one more. So there's more at large bids this year. Now you got two coming from the 810. So someone who is on that bubble, probably a Virginia Tech, I'm guessing, is no longer in the tournament and will be playing elsewhere for their postseason. You think back to last year. Last year the Ivy got in two teams, Columbia being the second team. I believe they would have kicked off Miami or Washington probably from the bubble. This isn't like the committee doesn't say like, oh, this is the Columbia got in and Miami got out or anything. So you sort of have to, you know, to sort of read, read what you can into it. But yeah, I think it's again, this speaks to the parody of the game right now. It speaks to the depth of the game right now that this is something that you sort of see these surprises in the mid major side on the men's tournament for a long time. And I think we're starting to see this now where a team like, you know, we're going to have two A10 teams in the women's NCAA tournament. That's pretty wild.
- [47:58]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. I always thought that the whole automatic bid based off of winning your conference tournament was silly.
- [48:05]
Zena Kaeda
Oh, I love it.
- [48:06]
Sabrina Merchant
I only felt that way because there was no such thing in the Ivy League when I played. There was no Ivy League tournament. It was you won your conference and that was it. They sent one and that was it. And then nobody usually was good enough to also get a bid. And that's why this conversation has changed. But now that there is a conference tournament, it's cool because it does open up the opportunity for more than one school to get in from the mid majors if your overall conference has played relatively well throughout the whole season. So I'm less a hater on the conference tournament automatic bid. I think it is also an opportunity, like I said, for teams that have been running and ramping up their momentum towards the end of the season to take advantage of that in the tournament and get a position now will have the opportunity to talk a lot more about bubble teams and who's probably in, who's probably out, et cetera, et cetera. Because I'll be talking with Mark Schindler later on this week about that in our, I would call it Bracketology, our last bracketology conversation before the actual bracket turns out. So we'll make sure to get that. But ladies, this was a great conversation. Of course, there was a lot of drama over the course of the weekend with the conference tournament, but I appreciate you guys kind of parsing through it and giving us a little bit of clarity here on where things kind of shook out for you guys and where you guys think things are going to shake out as we look ahead. But before we close out, I got one question for you. Who do you think gets the overall number one seed? Shantelle, I'm gonna start with you.
- [49:41]
Zena Kaeda
I think it's gotta be UCLA in my mind at this point. It just makes the most sense to me, I think.
- [49:48]
Sabrina Merchant
Okay. Okay. Sabrina.
- [49:51]
Chantel Jennings
Yeah. I hate to just end this on a note of agreement, but yeah, ucla, they've been the number one seed in each of the last two reveals. They beaten USC since that, you know, which basically avenges their only losses of the regular season. And the three teams directly below them in the last reveal were Texas, USC, and Notre Dame. And I would imagine all three of those didn't do enough to leapfrog UCLA based on their resume since.
- [50:17]
Sabrina Merchant
Okay, folks, I think the athletic women's basketball show. We haven't asked Ben, but I think we're all going to go UCLA for number one seed. So we'll see what happens. But on that note, let's wrap it up. I appreciate you guys tuning in today. Again, hit that subscribe button on our show. Leave us comments. Let us know. Did we choose the wrong overall number one seed? Did we not talk about your team and buy some stock in them? Let us know. We want to hear it all and we also want to read it all. Man. We get some essays under the power rankings from Sabrina. So appreciate all of you guys commenting and sharing your thoughts and also make sure to check out our partner Yahoo sports hub@sports.yahoo.com backslash women's-sports there's all this content, not only basketball, but even more around around women's sports. And again, come back on Friday. I'm talking to our guy, Mark Schindler. He's been breaking down bracketology for us all season and now it's time for the big dance to come around. We'll have everything you need to know before selection Sunday, so make sure you tune in on Friday. So on behalf of Chantelle Jennings, Sabrina Merchant, I'm Zena Kada, thanking you for your ear and encouraging you guys. Keep listening, keep learning, keep watching and keep loving the game because that's the only way we're going to keep growing it until next time.
- [51:41]
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Sabrina Merchant
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Hey folks, it's Mark Marin from WTF. It's been more than 15 years now and I'm still talking to all kinds of people in my garage every week. Sometimes it's Bill Burr, sometimes it's Ariana Grande. She just looks at me cuz she's always going like dad, it's not that big a deal. Yeah, I go sorry, I. I lost my temper. I go, I still love you. You know Daddy has issues.
- [53:30]
Sabrina Merchant
Are you afraid of issues of death?
- [53:32]
Zena Kaeda
Well, I don't.
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H
I think about it all the time.
- [53:34]
Sabrina Merchant
How are we here already?
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H
Listen to WTF with Marc Maron twice a week on your favorite podcast app. Or get more WTF with a WTF plus subscription. Just go to wtfpod.com and click on WTF Plus.
- [53:51]
Chantel Jennings
Acast helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com.