No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show Episode Summary: "Who's Getting That Final No. 1 Seed?" Release Date: March 11, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show, hosts Zena Keita, Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, and Ben Pickman delve into the critical discussions surrounding the final No. 1 seeds for the upcoming NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament. Released on March 11, 2025, the episode provides an in-depth analysis of conference tournament outcomes, team performances, potential seedings, and the impact of injuries on tournament prospects.

Conference Tournaments: Evolution and Impact

Sabrina Merchant kicks off the discussion by highlighting the heightened significance of conference tournaments this year. Unlike previous seasons where outcomes had minimal impact on tournament seedings, this year’s tournaments are pivotal in determining seed placements and influencing Selection Sunday decisions.

[04:51] Sabrina Merchant:
"We’re going to talk about the highlights from this past weekend's conference tournaments and the impact of the outcomes of those tournaments and how they may be impacting some teams ahead of the Big Dance."

Chantel Jennings elaborates on the diverse approaches programs take towards conference tournaments, noting that mega-conferences like the Big Ten and SEC concentrate significant talent, making tournament victories more competitive and consequential.

[08:33] Chantel Jennings:
"In this era of mega conferences, when you have South Carolina and Texas in the same conference and you have, you know, USC and UCLA have always been in the same conference... there is a lot more opportunity for big wins, big statement games, and a lot for the committee to chew on as they headed to selection Sunday."

Top Contenders for the No. 1 Seed

The hosts identify five primary teams in contention for the final No. 1 seeds:

1. UCLA
2. USC
3. South Carolina
4. Texas
5. UConn

Zena Keita discusses the diverse challenges of winning regular-season versus tournament championships, emphasizing the resilience and performance of these top teams during high-pressure scenarios.

[10:14] Zena Keita:
"I think there’s probably five in the conversation that it's worth talking about. Obviously UCLA and USC are up there... South Carolina and Texas and then UConn."

Chantel Jennings counters the inclusion of TCU, arguing that while they performed admirably, their victories don’t match the caliber of the top five teams, making a No. 2 seed more plausible for them.

[11:59] Chantel Jennings:
"They’ve done very well against like their tier of teams. Which is why I think a number two seed makes a lot of sense for TCU... their schedule, they haven’t done enough to prove that they can compete at the same level that those other teams did during the course of the regular season."

Recency Bias and Committee Decisions

The discussion shifts to how recent performances influence committee decisions. Zena Keita points out the unpredictability of tournament outcomes this year, attributing it to the narrow margins between top seeds and their lower-ranked counterparts.

[12:48] Zena Keita:
"I think the difference here is like, the difference between, you know, in the past where it’s like, oh, these four teams are getting to the Final Four... I think we can’t say that this year."

Sabrina Merchant raises concerns about the committee potentially favoring recent performances, leading to seed adjustments based on late-season momentum rather than consistent performance throughout the season.

[17:53] Sabrina Merchant:
"Do you both think that the committee has to have a level of recency bias in order to make their decision?"

Chantel Jennings and Zena Keita engage in a nuanced debate about the balance between overall resumes and recent tournament performances, acknowledging that late-season play can significantly impact seedings.

Importance of Hosting in the Tournament

Zena Keita explains the strategic advantage of hosting in the NCAA tournament, especially in the women’s bracket where top 16 teams host games on campus, providing home-court benefits such as familiar environments and fan support.

[19:38] Zena Keita:
"Those 16 teams host the first weekend of the tournament... it doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to get out of that, out of your home court, necessarily into the sweet 16. But it’s certainly a leg up in every sense of the word."

Chantel Jennings further emphasizes the logistical and psychological advantages of hosting, stressing how critical it is for teams to secure hosting positions to optimize their tournament run.

Stock Up, Stock Down: Team Performance Analysis

The hosts engage in a "Stock Up, Stock Down" segment, evaluating teams based on their recent performances and potential for the tournament.

Stock Up:

• Michigan: Recognized for their freshman talent and unexpected performance surges.
• Iowa: Highlighted for key players like Lucy Olson stepping up their scoring.
• Vanderbilt: Praised for the development of young players under Shea Ralph.

Stock Down:

• Notre Dame: Concerns over recent losses and inconsistent performance.
• LSU: Worries about key player injuries impacting their offensive and defensive capabilities.
• Kansas State: Uncertainty surrounding Ayoka Lee’s injury and its implications on their tournament prospects.

[26:02] Zena Keita:
"Michigan starts three freshmen, including the Big Ten freshman of the year... it's a dangerous seven seed."

[34:08] Chantel Jennings:
"I'm a little worried about Notre Dame... this is a team that isn’t quite connecting."

Impact of Injuries on Tournament Prospects

The conversation addresses how injuries to key players can dramatically alter a team’s tournament outlook.

Chantel Jennings discusses the critical injuries to LSU’s Flaje Johnson and Anissa Morrow, questioning their availability and impact on the team's performance.

[38:29] Sabrina Merchant:
"Anissa and Flauje are the reason why people buy stock in LSU... their interior defense is also predicated on Anissa Morrow being able to play."

Zena Keita adds that Kansas State’s Ayoka Lee remains a significant injury concern, potentially limiting their tournament success.

[40:40] Chantel Jennings:
"Ayoka Lee is the number one injury concern with the tournament... this is a team that I wouldn’t even expect to get out of the first weekend."

Mid-Major Influence and Bid Stealing

The hosts explore the concept of bid stealing, where mid-major conferences potentially secure multiple tournament bids, impacting traditional power conferences.

Sabrina Merchant reflects on how the landscape has shifted, allowing mid-majors like the A-10 to secure additional bids, thus "stealing" spots from power conference teams.

[45:58] Sabrina Merchant:
"It's the field of the 68 bid thieves is fighting words... mid-majors can come in and get a bid that would have theoretically gone to a major conference school."

Zena Keita notes the unprecedented nature of this trend and its implications for the depth and competitiveness of the tournament.

[47:57] Sabrina Merchant:
"This speaks to the depth of the game right now that this is something that you sort of see these surprises in the mid major side on the men's tournament for a long time... we're starting to see this now."

Predictions: The Ultimate No. 1 Seed

As the episode nears its conclusion, the hosts present their final predictions for the overall No. 1 seed.

Chantel Jennings and Zena Keita converge on predicting UCLA as the likely No. 1 seed, citing their consistent performance and recent victories over key rivals like USC.

[49:40] Zena Keita:
"I think it's gotta be UCLA in my mind at this point. It just makes the most sense to me."

[49:51] Chantel Jennings:
"Yeah, UCLA... I would imagine all three of those didn't do enough to leapfrog UCLA based on their resume since."

Sabrina Merchant concurs, anticipating that UCLA will secure the top seed, aligning with the majority consensus among the hosts.

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with the hosts summarizing their discussions, emphasizing the unpredictability and excitement surrounding the final No. 1 seed decisions. They encourage listeners to stay engaged, subscribe, and participate in ongoing conversations about the women's basketball tournament.

[50:17] Sabrina Merchant:
"Did we choose the wrong overall number one seed? Did we not talk about your team and buy some stock in them? Let us know."

The hosts also tease future episodes, including a forthcoming discussion on bracketology, ensuring that fans remain informed and connected as the tournament approaches.

Notable Quotes

• Sabrina Merchant [04:51]:
  "We'll explain all what we're talk about. Just you got to make sure you subscribe to this pod wherever you get your pods to stay up to date with us."

• Chantel Jennings [08:33]:
  "There is a lot of opportunity for big wins, big statement games, and a lot for the committee to chew on as they headed to selection Sunday."

• Zena Keita [12:48]:
  "This isn't a chalk year. This isn’t a year you can look at the bracket at any point, I think, even though we haven't seen it yet and say like, I know exactly who's going to make it to the Final Four."

• Chantel Jennings [15:56]:
  "I think UCLA, South Carolina immediately have to be number ones."

• Sabrina Merchant [17:53]:
  "Do you both think that the committee has to have a level of recency bias in order to make their decision?"

• Zena Keita [19:38]:
  "Getting one of those top 16 positions, it doesn't guarantee that you're going to get out of that, out of your home court, necessarily into the sweet 16. But it’s certainly a leg up in every sense of the word."

• Chantel Jennings [34:08]:
  "This is a team that isn't quite connecting. There's some defensive vulnerabilities."

• Sabrina Merchant [45:58]:
  "This is something that you sort of see these surprises in the mid major side on the men's tournament for a long time. And I think we're starting to see this now."

This episode offers a comprehensive exploration of the factors influencing the final No. 1 seed decisions in women's basketball, providing listeners with expert insights and thoughtful analysis to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of the sport.