No Offseason: The Athletic Women’s Basketball Show

Episode: Who’s Safe, Who’s Going? WNBA Expansion Mock Draft

Release Date: December 5, 2025
Hosts: Zena Keita, Sabrina Merchant, Ben Pickman

Episode Overview

In this lively and insightful episode, the hosts dissect the upcoming WNBA expansion, focusing on potential picks for the new Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire franchises. With the CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) negotiations still ongoing and expansion draft rules in flux, the team dives into how these startups might assemble their rosters, what the new CBA could mean for player movement, revenue sharing, and housing, and all the strategic intricacies of their own mock expansion draft. Along the way, they break down hot topics from league-player negotiations, discuss tensions around salaries and benefits, and debate the prospects and complexities of team-building in unprecedented times for the league.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. WNBA CBA Negotiations Update

(02:23–24:13)

Negotiation Timeline & Main Tensions

• The league and the players’ union have exchanged numerous proposals since October 30, 2025, trying to reach a new CBA as the previous one was opted out of in 2024.
• Revenue Sharing Dilemma: The players want a share in all league revenues, but the league’s proposal creates a “revenue metric” combining some earnings (media, tickets, etc.), excluding other revenues, splitting 50% of this subset with players.
  • "What the players seemingly want is access to all of the revenue that the league earns and a share of all of that revenue."
    — Sabrina Merchant (05:55)
• First-year player share would be less than 15% of total league revenue, which is modest compared to men’s leagues (noted as different comparisons), and actually declines in later years.
  • "We've been told that the share of the total revenue... would be getting less than 15% of that in the first year of the deal, and that would be going down over the life of the cba."
    — Sabrina Merchant (08:32)

Players’ Union Reaction

• Players are frustrated by lack of transparency (“what exactly is in the chunk?”) and distrustful of league intentions.
  • "I don't feel like there's any cultivation of a culture of trust... We don't feel value in these talks as they stand today. I feel like we've been heard but not listened to."
    — Nneka Ogwumike, WNBPA President, via Ben Pickman (09:52)

Contentious Issues:

• Housing: League proposes eliminating team-issued housing/stipends, reasoning that higher salaries should offset the needs; players counter that logistical realities of short-term contracts and market uncertainty make this unfair.
  • "If you were a player who is getting drafted on April 13th and your camp's already started, and you need to find a place to live, that timeline doesn't make a lot of sense."
    — Sabrina Merchant (15:29)
• Season Expansion: League wants the option to start training camps in March (from April), but this runs into NCAA/WNBA calendar conflicts.
• Draft Combine: New proposal for an offseason combine, but logistics and compatibility with college and international commitments are complex and unresolved.
• Player Benefits & Rights: Moves to improve standards regarding non-birthing parental leave, retiree benefits, and mental health provisions — some broad agreement here.
  • "We're seeing some possible benefits for retiring or retirement players... and something for non-birthing parental leave."
    — Ben Pickman (22:59)

Areas of (Relative) Agreement

• Staffing requirements and minimum team standards: Agreement on more strength coaches, athletic trainers, but less consensus on “private” locker rooms and facilities.
• Retirement and parental leave: Movement toward payments/benefits, but specifics unsettled.

2. Setting Up the Mock Expansion Draft

(25:58–44:04)

The Context:

• Next year's WNBA expansion brings Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire. With player movement, only rookies and a handful of others are locked down.
  • "Nearly every veteran player poised to enter... everyone out of outside of rookies and like two players... everyone has the opportunity to pretty much move."
    — Zena Keita (25:58)
• Existing teams protect key players, but teams have to get creative with deep and often young/unproven pools left unprotected.

Rules for the Mock Draft

(29:28–33:27)

• Inspired by the 2000 WNBA Expansion Draft:
  • First six rounds: Teams protect up to five players; second half, an additional player can be protected.
  • Each existing team loses only one player per half (max two total).
  • Expansion teams can draft unrestricted free agents but can only "core" one each—a contentious, semi-franchise tag that limits player movement and is under fire in CBA talks.
    • "The core is something that the WNBPA actually wants to get rid of... because they view it as, it disrupts player agency."
      — Sabrina Merchant (31:47)
• Strategic Implications: Stars like Stewart, Copper, etc., can't be cored anymore and would likely opt to stay put, so expansion teams focus on younger/controllable players and key role players.

Evaluating Protection Strategies

• High team control players and cost-control contracts are gold.
• Wings (the position, not Dallas) are notably scarce; the available pool skews toward guards and bigs.
• Teams with more young talent (Dallas, Golden State, Washington) face tougher protection decisions than veteran-laden, win-now teams (Minnesota, Las Vegas).
  • "Dallas was very hard... there were a ton of options."
    — Ben Pickman (38:14)
  • "You look at teams like Minnesota and Las Vegas where they have a ton of veteran talent, right? But they're all unrestricted free agents... do you want to protect a bunch of players who are unrestricted free agents... or do you try to protect younger players who maybe aren't as integral to the fabric of the team?"
    — Sabrina Merchant (40:58)

3. Expansion Draft Picks & Philosophy

(46:00–62:21)

Draft Dynamics

• Focus is on building for the future by picking young, team-controlled players; contractual status is paramount, more so than sheer productivity.
  • "In this current free agency environment... it just doesn't make a ton of sense to take veterans because you have no control as a team in this process."
    — Sabrina Merchant (36:55)

Round 1:

• Toronto #1: Li Yueru (Dallas) — skillful, stretch big; her contract and age offer upside and team control.
  • "Li Yuru, who... is a really, really skilled big and she is 6 foot 7... an active rebounder, nearly 37% three-point shooter... a unique player."
    — Ben Pickman (46:35)
• Portland #2: Carla Leite (Golden State) — dynamic young guard, huge upside, great driver.
  • "Sky's the limit I think with Carla... and I think Golden State felt the same way."
    — Sabrina Merchant (49:22)
• Both teams immediately pick from the teams with the deepest unprotected pools as a strategic first move.

Notable Picks & Strategy:

• Hosts explain how they prioritize players under long-term control and draft for positional need (bigs/wings being more valuable due to positional scarcity).
• Sarah Ashley Barker & Aaliyah Nye (former Alabama teammates) both drafted for Toronto—strong on youth, upside, contract control.
  • "Still am betting on the potential of a first round pick, first round talent who is under contract for a number of seasons."
    — Ben Pickman (51:59)
• Strategic use of the “core” designation: Ben ultimately cores Azura Stevens; Sabrina uses it for Arike Ogunbowale (Dallas).
  • "Arike is kind of the perfect star to build around if you're starting a new franchise... I can take Arike, give her the core, make her the foundation of the Portland Fire."
    — Sabrina Merchant (56:13)
• Some surprising late-round steals: Holly Winterburn, Maureen Johannes, Isabel Borlaise (international talents with big upside and coach connections).
  • "I wanted a London Lions reunion... as you were doing this process and Ben takes Nightland and Dream guard... I was like, oh, shit. Am I going to lose out on Holly? But thankfully got her in the second part."
    — Sabrina Merchant (59:29)
  • “Isabel Borlaise, who is an Australian guard... and she's killing it right now over in the wnbl... If anyone can bring out the best in a point guard... it would be Sandy [Brondello].”
    — Ben Pickman (60:21)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On revenue sharing:
  "We want a piece of the whole pie, not a piece of part of the pie."
  — (Kelsey Plum, as quoted by Sabrina Merchant, 05:55)

• On CBA trust:
  "We don't feel value in these talks as they stand today. I feel like we've been heard but not listened to."
  — (Nneka Ogwumike, WNBPA President, via Ben Pickman, 09:52)

• On expansion draft rules’ complexity:
  "If someone is an unrestricted free agent and they get drafted, they are still eligible to go talk to other people... you could draft someone to your team and... they could... up and leave you."
  — Zena Kaeda (34:47)

• On player experience with housing:
  "Are you supposed to live in a hotel while you search out an apartment building? Like, you don't know where you're going to go until right before camp starts."
  — Sabrina Merchant (15:29)

• On protection dilemmas and team philosophies:
  "Do you want to protect Dana Evans... or Aaliyah Nye, who is under contract for the next three seasons? If you're Minnesota, do you protect Bridget Carlton? Or, you know, Anastasia Kosu, who again, three more years of contract? Right. So... does that mean you can protect them over players who, like, again, Dana Evans can just walk if you want?"
  — Sabrina Merchant (40:58)

• On the strategic fun of the mock:
  "This is why I love the article... you guys explain your thoughts as the GMs... but also were able to get into the heads of the GMs of these existing teams."
  — Zena Kaeda (44:15)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• CBA Overview & Salary Proposal Details: 02:23–11:22
• What’s in the Protected “Chunk” of Revenue? 05:55–09:24
• Housing, Training Camp Dates, and Draft Combine Issues: 11:22–18:53
• Player Experience: Housing & Roster Cuts: 15:29–20:27
• Areas of CBA Agreement (Parental Leave, Staffing): 20:27–24:13
• Expansion Draft Purpose & Rules: 25:58–33:27
• Rules Wrangling: Core/UFA/Protections: 31:47–34:47
• Protection Dilemmas by Team Type: 36:55–42:49
• Toronto #1 and Portland #2 Selections & Reasoning: 46:00–50:11
• Surprise Picks & Draft Philosophies: 51:22–62:21
• Most Satisfying Picks (Hosts’ Favorites): 59:29–62:21

Episode Tone & Style

The conversation is energetic, witty, and full of friendly banter, rich with deep-dive analysis, and driven by a genuine love for the game and the athletes. The hosts deftly weave league news, negotiation drama, and mock-draft fun, making the intricacies of WNBA rules, contracts, and league-building both accessible and entertaining.

Summary for New Listeners

This episode is a masterclass in the fast-changing landscape of the WNBA, where rules, contracts, and league priorities are in flux, and every decision about player protections and expansion strategy reflects bigger battles for equity and growth in women’s professional sports. For WNBA fans (diehard and casual alike), it’s a can’t-miss breakdown of what’s at stake in the next phase of league history, how new teams might take shape, and the real-world implications behind every pick and negotiation bullet point. Memorable quotes, sharp analysis, and the kind of behind-the-scenes logic you’d want from a true insider war room.

For the detailed expansion mock draft, player-by-player breakdowns, and to share your own picks, check out the linked article at The Athletic and join the conversation!