No Offseason: The Athletic Women’s Basketball Show

Episode: Will Iowa State’s Resume Be Enough for March?
Date: February 6, 2026
Hosts: Sabrina Merchant, Chantel Jennings
Guest: Eden Lasse (Bracketologist)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into two of the biggest storylines in women’s basketball as March approaches. First, Sabrina and Chantel break down the stalled WNBA collective bargaining agreement (CBA) negotiations, offering context, insight, and speculation on if a work stoppage is looming. Then, bracketologist Eden Lasse joins to analyze the NCAA Women’s Tournament bubble, with a special focus on whether Iowa State and other notable programs have done enough to earn a bid, how the committee evaluates resumes, and which mid-majors are fighting for their spot. They wrap up with a fun segment matching women’s basketball stars to Winter Olympic sports.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Latest WNBA CBA Negotiations

[02:03 – 25:50]

CBA Status & Revenue Sharing Sticking Points

• The WNBA and Players’ Union met recently, but the league brought “no proposal,” continuing a pattern of inactivity.
  • Chantel: “It was the league's turn…to show up to a meeting with a proposal…and they went into this meeting and quickly found out that there would be no proposal.” (02:50)
• Revenue sharing remains “the crux of this whole holdup.”
  • Players’ proposal: 30% of revenue off-the-top before expenses for the players, 70% for owners, directly impacting salary cap.
  • League’s proposal: Split revenue after expenses have been deducted, with the players receiving 70% of what's left.
  • The difference results in average salaries of $530K/$800K depending on approach—both a big jump from current ~$120K, but with a large gap still between sides.
  • Sabrina: “We are talking about a difference of…$530,000 per player (league proposal) and $800,000 per player (players’ proposal).” (04:25)

Work Stoppage Likelihood & Timeline

• The hosts use a fun “1 to 10” scale to rate how likely a work stoppage is at various points in the negotiation timeline.
  • Even now, with limited progress, Sabrina says, “We’re closer to a 4 now just because I really don’t think either party wants to miss games… It's just—we're just hitting a time crunch, right?” (10:54)
• Both sides are confident and neither wants to cede leverage; both believe their model is best for the league’s future.
• There’s a sense of urgency now—with expansion drafts and the WNBA/college calendars looming—because pending free agency could overlap with major events such as the NCAA Final Four and Transfer Portal.
  • Chantel: “…Now free agency could be happening during both the Final Four and the transfer portal window for the college season, which feels, I think for people like you and I who would be covering both, exhausting on top of an already exhausting time.” (13:34)
  • Sabrina adds: “It’s not ideal…It’s stretching everybody a little too thin, and it’s making everything feel a little bit less important, which is not what should be happening during March Madness.” (16:29)
• The “anchoring” negotiation strategy is discussed, with both hosts noting the vast difference between pre- and post-expense revenue sharing is a fundamental dispute.
  • Sabrina: “There is just a fundamentally different understanding of how the business works and what should be calculated as revenue and what belongs to the players, what belongs to the league and how to divvy it all up.” (19:37)

Memorable Quotes

• Chantel: “Before we even have deal or no deal, we have to have proposal or no proposal, because the answer was no proposal or no new proposal, at least.” (02:50)
• Sabrina: “The lack of anything happening is…troubling to me now.” (09:40)
• Chantel: “...the players, rightfully so, see this moment in women's basketball history… and it's sort of like, strike while the iron is hot. The iron is hot now.” (24:15)

2. NCAA Women’s Tournament Bubble Watch with Eden Lasse

[29:03 – 48:39]

Bubble Basics & Big 12 Bubbles

• Bubble: Teams on the verge of either making or missing the tournament—usually slotted as 10–12 seeds or in 'First Four' play-in games.
  • Eden: “It essentially means the team is right on the cusp of either falling off or falling into the tournament.” (30:59)
• Big 12 has an unusual number of teams in “bubble city”—teams with similar resumes, beating each other and sharing similar results, creating difficulty in seeding.
  • Eden: “It's basically those Big 12 teams have been beating each other and then beating the same teams and then losing to the same teams. So that's how they've all ended up randomly on the same kind of wavelength.” (32:45)

Mid-Majors vs. Power Conferences

• Richmond, a notable mid-major, is on the bubble. Despite standout players like Maggie Dugan, their path is much harder.
  • Eden: “The thing about being a mid-major team is you really have no margin of error…they look at their schedule…and think, hey, we did a really good job…but then it comes time… and they don’t (get in), and then a Power 5 team…with 10 losses gets in.” (35:06)
• Strength of schedule, “Quad 1/Quad 2” wins, and Net Ranking are critical—wins against highly ranked teams (especially on the road) matter most.
  • Eden explains: “The net is a lot of different factors… margin of victory, if you’re playing on the road…quad one wins are…a quality win.” (38:00)

Teams to Watch: In, Out, and on the Brink

• Potential bubble teams that could play their way in: Villanova, Kansas (Big 12), and Utah.
• Key weekend games: Stanford (vs. Pitt, Georgia Tech)—must-win games to avoid falling off the bubble.
  • Eden: “…if they [Stanford] lose one of those games, I would think that they would fall out of the field.” (41:35)
• How smaller conference (A10, Ivy) tournament upsets can shrink the at-large bubble for bubble teams.
  • Ivy and A10 “could make people on the bubble sweat a little bit more this season.” (41:55)
• Other notable teams:
  • Utah and Colorado – Strength of schedule gives them a chance, but “bad losses” could erase their resume.
  • Virginia (ACC) – Good net ranking, but lacking marquee wins.
• Eden: “That's the thing about being on the bubble. One good thing happens to you and you're like, woohoo, we’re so in. And then you lose the game and oh no, we're out again. That's kind of the nature of the beast.” (47:41)

Memorable Quotes

• Eden: “The bubble is like…you’re so close, but you could go either way…” (30:59)
• Chantel: “Conferences…make their schedules and being like, we have all of these ranked games at the end…like we're gonna lose a bunch and not make the tournament, versus, like we're gonna win all these and punch our ticket.” (47:41)

3. Winter Olympics Crossover: Women's Basketball Edition

[50:37 – 59:12]

Fun Matchmaking Segment

• Inspired by Florida Atlantic alum Brittany Bowe making Team USA in speed skating, the crew improvises which women’s basketball players could succeed in Winter Olympic sports.
• Curling “Team”: Sabrina picks a recently graduated quartet from Creighton (Lauren Jensen as skip, Morgan, Molly, Emma Rancic) for their chemistry and shooting accuracy. (52:57)
• Biathlon: Cross-country skiing plus rifle shooting—Minnesota natives like Gianna Neepkins, Mara Braun, and Battle are floated as picks for their athletic attributes and regional “fit.” (55:06)
• Juju Watkins: Multi-sport potential imagined—bobsled for speed/strength, ice dancing for balance/artistry, even hockey for team play.
  • Chantel (on Juju): “Juju has the kind of athleticism that...she could kind of excel in whatever you put her into.” (57:20)
• Segment brings out the light-hearted, collegial chemistry of the hosts and guest.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Before we even have deal or no deal, we have to have proposal or no proposal, because the answer was no proposal or no new proposal, at least.”
  – Chantel Jennings [02:50]

• “We are talking about a difference of… $530,000 per player (league proposal) and $800,000 per player (players’ proposal).”
  – Sabrina Merchant [04:25]

• “The lack of anything happening is…troubling to me now.”
  – Sabrina Merchant [09:40]

• “It's not ideal…It’s stretching everybody a little too thin, and it’s making everything feel a little bit less important, which is not what should be happening during March Madness.”
  – Sabrina Merchant [16:29]

• “The bubble is like…you’re so close, but you could go either way…”
  – Eden Lasse [30:59]

• “That's the thing about being on the bubble. One good thing happens to you and you're like, woohoo, we’re so in. And then you lose the game and oh no, we're out again. That's kind of the nature of the beast.”
  – Eden Lasse [47:41]

• “Juju has the kind of athleticism that...she could kind of excel in whatever you put her into.”
  – Chantel Jennings [57:20]

Important Segment Timestamps

• CBA Breakdown: 02:03 – 25:50
• Bracketology & Bubble Watch: 29:03 – 48:39
• Winter Olympics Segment: 50:37 – 59:12

Summary & Utility

This episode offers a thorough—and often wry—look into the critical off-court business side of the WNBA just as 2026 free agency and expansion loom, underlining the tension and strategic stalling between players and league. The bracketology segment is a must-listen (or read) for fans of college women’s basketball, providing clarity on bubble dynamics, key teams to watch, and laying out the harsh reality for mid-majors. The Olympic crossover game closes things with humor and unique sports nerdery.

For Listeners Who Missed It:

• Get insider context on why WNBA’s CBA is stalled, and how it impacts the quickly-approaching 2026 season.
• Understand why so many Big 12 teams (and Richmond) are bubble teams, and what differentiates a “resume win” from a missed opportunity.
• Learn the key NCAA games to watch for bubble implications through the weekend.
• Enjoy the hosts’ camaraderie and knowledge as they bring a sports-fandom twist to the Olympics.

Hosts: Sabrina Merchant, Chantel Jennings
Guest: Eden Lasse
Duration of Key Segments:

• CBA: 02:03–25:50
• Bracketology: 29:03–48:39
• Olympic Fun: 50:37–59:12
  Listen for: Analytical context, insider explanations, fun banter, and sharp, accessible breakdowns of the women’s basketball landscape as March approaches.