← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
WNBA Expansion Draft Insights & Final Four Showdown Preview
00:44:37
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- [00:00]
A
It's finally March and you know what that means. Bracket season, baby. Picture it. You're hosting the big tourney game, you've got your jersey, you're looking good, and now all you need is, well, everything else to host. No sweat though, because you're a Sam's Club member. In one trip, you say yes to grabbing everything you need and to getting it all for unbelievably low prices. Plates, cups, tables, chairs, pizza, wings, snacks, sweets, and the ultimate three pointer. A big screen tv. Heck, you could even get it delivered. That's because the play that Sam's Club runs is called yes. And it means getting just what you need and enjoying the perks that come with membership like express delivery, bonus points. So even if you don't win your bracket, you'll win best host. Join Sam's Club, the club of yes. And on eligible items, terms and fees apply. See samsclub.com yes and for details.
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B
If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is all always ready for tip off. And Grainger is your trusted partner, offering the products you need all in one place, from H Vac and plumbing supplies to lighting and more. And all delivered with plenty of time left on the clock. So your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER visit grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.
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C
Hello everyone and welcome to no Off Season presented by Sam's Club. I'm Shantelle Jennings.
- [02:06]
D
And I'm Sabrina Merchant.
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C
And today on the show, history and familiarity collide. All four number one seeds are back in the final four for the second straight year. UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina. And the question is, who's feeling the pressure and who's playing with a sense of urgency? My guess is all four teams are playing with both. But I think we're both feeling like maybe some of teams are playing with a little more pressure and some are playing with a little more urgency. But we're breaking it all down in our final four preview. But first, the expansion draft is today. Sabrina. And here's how the expansion draft will work for any of our listeners who are catching up now because there's just been too much basketball happening. We've got two rounds, up to 12 picks each. I say up to because Toronto or Portland could pass on a pick just like Golden State did last year. So we could see as many as 24 total selections and maybe less than that. Toronto won the coin toss, but went with a higher pick in the college draft number six instead of seven, which means Portland grabs the first overall pick today. And in the second round, the order flips. Now, every existing team can protect up to five players this time, down from six last year. That basically includes anyone on their main roster at the end of 2025, or anyone they hold the rights to. And those rights cover a lot. Restricted free agents, reserved players, suspended contracts, draft rights, and even retired players if the team hasn't renounced their rights. So there's a lot of strategy here. Sabrina, how are you thinking that the fire and the tempo might approach this draft?
- [03:37]
D
Yeah, I think first things first, the fact that Toronto won the toss and elected to get the higher pick in the college draft suggests that they expect, you know, their franchise cornerstone to more likely come out of the college draft and the expansion draft. And I think that's important to set our expectations. Like, even with only five protections, that's basically a starting lineup. Right. So you're picking out of bench players, you're picking out of people who weren't a part of, like, the major starting five or closing five for a team. And maybe that's the right strategy. Maybe it's worth noting that it's not really a snake draft. Like, Portland's going to have 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11, like those picks in the first round and then the order switches in the second round. So I was honestly a little surprised that, like, that was the direction Toronto went, that they wanted one pick higher in the college draft versus the expansion draft, because I think there's a lot of value to be had in the expansion draft. We saw how Golden State made the playoffs with the roster basically entirely composed of expansion draft players. So that's just first things first. Yeah. Secondly, I just wish it was televised live because I would love to know the back and forth and how these things are going. I realized that would take a lot of time. Probably couldn't do it on Final Four day, but hey, maybe we don't have to do it on Final Four day.
- [04:48]
C
How could that have happened? How could we have possibly planned for such a thing? Sabrina? Truly, truly, truly. So, okay, but really quickly, because you talked about Golden State and how they really focused on Some vets and international players and young talent. I actually think they had, you know, kind of a nice mix of players. And similarly, both of these expansion teams have first time gm. So it's not like we have a track record here to say like this is what they. Like this is what they've been accustomed to doing with their previous club. How do you see Monica Wright Rogers and Vanya Chernovic kind of approaching this based off what you know about them?
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D
Yeah. So just going back to Golden State real quick, they also had a first time GM in Ohaman Yen and she was the assistant general manager in New York. And I think that's strategy that they had in the draft. New York is one of the better teams in the league at recruiting international talent, especially under this current administration with Jonathan Kolb. And you saw that with Golden State, they were very friendly to international talent. Even the players that they took from existing teams, a lot of them were international. The fact that they were able to withstand that EuroBasket break with all those international players is a monument to the coaching of Natalie Nakase. But we're talking about two more first time GMs who had been assistant general managers in the league before. So maybe we can look at like where they've previously been to sort of discern what sort of strategies. And oddly enough, Portland's general manager Vanya Tiernovich was in Golden State last year when they were conducting this expansion draft. So an international flavor wouldn't be altogether surprising, especially since she has had so much of her career take place internationally. She was an international scout for the Chicago Bulls. She was the general manager of the London Lions, or forgive me, a different front office role, but integral in creating the London Lions, you know, back when they were still in the Euro Cup. So I would imagine that there are still a lot of international players that are going to be on Portland's draft board, especially just because the way the expansion draft works, there are just a lot of options internationally. Like all these players that you have draft rights to and contracts are suspended. Those tend to be the ones who are not domestic, those tend to be the ones who are international. And the crop of unrestricted free agents of which each expansion team could only take one, is a little bit more American heavy. So I think just by virtue of the way the pool works, we're going to see very international heavy picks. And I think about Monica Wright Rogers who comes from Phoenix and how well they did to mine the international system this past off season and get players who maybe they'd been in college but they'd really gotten their starts in Euroleague and used those players to fill out their roster. So, yeah, just if it's like you're seeing a list of names or like, hey, I haven't heard this name in a long time, or like not seeing a lot of American names, I think that's, that's by design because of where these general managers come from and just what, what is available to them in this draft.
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C
I mean, I think even if Vanya Chernovich didn't have the experience like working at Golden State last year, the, like, I think both of these GMs would have looked at the Valkyries and said, okay, they made the playoffs last year as a first year team, like, what can we emulate from them? And obviously, like, you know, how much of it is going to be because Vanya did it when she was in the Bay versus sort of her own preference? I don't know, we're probably not going to be able to parse that out immediately. But I do think it's like, do what works, do what has been proven to work. And I think this is. You look at the Valkyries and you say, like, how can you argue anything? You know, like you said, there's a large element here that's coaching as well. But I do think in terms of the roster composition, getting the right talent together and finding the right pieces in a situation that is less than ideal. And this whole free agency process, this whole off season for the WNBA is going to be less than ideal with how everything shakes out. I think that's, it'll be interesting to see how it happens. But I'm, I'm curious, Sabrina. If you just look at the tempo and the fire, we don't know exactly which five players have been protected by every existing franchise, but are there any players that come to mind in terms of Portland and Toronto that you say like, yeah, I think that's going to be their first pick?
- [09:03]
D
Yeah, I look at, I'm gonna start with the tempo, just because we have a better understanding of Sandy Brondello and her WNBA coaching career. And she has been in the playoffs basically every season since she's been a head coach, like those years in Phoenix and then the last four years in New York. And although, you know, our former colleague Richard Deitchch and a lot of other people have been like, just tank for 2027 and 2028, I do think being competitive right away is very much in Sandy Brandella's DNA. And there are a lot of players around the league who have played for her before a lot of Australian players who she's familiar with through that national team. So I think a sense of familiarity is something that I'm trying to keep in mind. Like the likes of Isabel Borlase or Nadia Potch from the Australian national team or Jade Melbourne players who might not get protected by their existing teams, but who Sandy has a relationship with. Those are some that I have my eye on as well as just players who have gone through the Liberty. I know it devastated the New York Liberty to lose Kayla Thornton last year in the expansion draft. And if you look at Golden State like, there's a high likelihood that they don't protect Kayla Thornton this year. So maybe that's somebody you want to bring back to Toronto, you know, just because I think culture is so important at the start of this process. Like with the way free agency is going to work this year. There's a lot of players that you have access to in free agency who you may not have access to during the expansion draft. So you can kind of worry about like the, the talent piece there. I think you just got to make sure that you have people in the room who like, are going to play hard for your coach, are going to set the right tone. And we know Kayla Thornton already done it once, like won a championship with Saint Rondella, was an all star in Golden State. Like that's the kind of player I think that you'd want to bring in right away. As far as Portland, again, we know less about them just because Alex Sarama never been a head coach in the wnba, never been an assistant coach in the wnba. So like his basketball philosophies are on display in a book called Transforming Basketball. But I don't really understand the CLA method all that well. I think just I would imagine they go at players who they think have been like undervalued in previous systems. Sort of like the Veronica Burton types, you know, who have just been playing behind a couple other people and haven't had a chance to showcase the best of their skills. And like I've looked a lot at, you know, someone like Lexi Held, who another Chicago based point guard like Veronica Burton, who was just behind a couple other guards in the Phoenix rotation, but really defensively versatile like Veronica Burton, you know, just keeps getting better and better in her European career and I think would have had a really nice WNBA season had she not had that pneumothorax in her lung during the season that sort of cut off all of her momentum. So one of those like just Miscast in the wrong situation type of players I feel like would do really well in the Portland system. And Held is just one of those names on that list.
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C
Sabrina, I'm curious if you think Arike Ogunbowale could end up in either Portland or Toronto. Dallas obviously has the number one pick. We'll see what Kurt Miller does. But you know, if history has anything to say about it, like this is going to be someone they plan to build around and they already have other pieces that they are currently building around. Arike is someone who has so much talent. Do you feel like there is a better fit for her elsewhere? And could one of those fits be Toronto or Portland?
- [12:14]
D
Yeah, I think Arike did a really good job of sort of ceding control to Paige during that wing season. And like how could you not as Paige Becker is. She's obviously the face of the franchise, but I don't know like how well that's all going to go going forward because like they did draft Isaiah James, they did draft J.J. quinnerle. Like maybe Az Fudd's on the way. There's a lot of crowdedness in that perimeter room and maybe you want to hold on to Rike Gumbawale because like if you core her, you could trade her and get some assets out of that. But I kind of think it's just nice to move, you know, forward for both parties. Like Dallas didn't exactly put a regain situation to succeed for most of her career there. And the Wings I think would be better off leaning into players who are more high efficiency, more ball moving versus ball dominant. If you're going to be playing with a Paige Becker system. And that's not to say that Arque is not a good player. It's just stylistically I don't know that the fit makes a ton of sense with Paige. So I would imagine like she finds a new team this offseason, whether that's in free agency or the expansion draft. I mean at this point it's just like what do you want your team to look like? Like do you want to build through the post? Do you want to build like you know, with a ball dominant guard that I can't really tell like based on what Toronto and Portland are thinking. What I'm pretty certain of is that Rika Kombalai is going to start the season not in a Dallas swings uniform, but I think it's more likely to happen in free agency than it would be in the expansion draft.
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C
Okay, well the expansion draft as we said, is today and after the Expansion Draft Tempo and Fire will still have two big opportunities to shape their rosters, free agency and the College draft, both of which are happening in quick succession here as we are so close to the start of the season. We'll keep you updated as it all unfolds. Until then, catch us live on YouTube Saturday morning as we break down the winners and losers of the expansion draft takeaways from the Final Four and preview the Women's College Basketball Championship. Next, we'll finally dive into the Final Four matchups and highlight what makes these rematches so intriguing.
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A
It's finally March, and you know what that means. Bracket season, baby. Picture it. You're hosting the big tourney game, you've got your jersey, you're looking good, and now all you need is, well, everything else to host. No sweat though, because you're a Sam's Club member. In one trip, you say yes to grabbing everything you need and to getting it all for unbelievably low prices. Plates, cups, tables, chairs, pizza, wings, snacks, sweets, and the ultimate three pointer. A big screen tv. Heck, you could even get it delivered. That's because the play that Sam's Club runs is called yes. And it means getting just what you need and enjoying the perks that come with membership like express delivery and bonus points. So even if you don't win your bracket, you'll win Best Host. Join Sam's Club, the club of yes and on eligible items, terms and fees apply. See samsclub.com yes and for details.
- [15:12]
B
With no fees or minimums on checking accounts, it's no wonder the Capital One bank guy is so passionate about banking with Capital One. If he were here, he wouldn't just tell you about no fees or minimums. He'd also talk about how most Capital One cafes are open seven days a week to assist with your banking needs. Yep, even on weekends, it's pretty much all he talks about in a good way. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See capitalone.com Bank Capital One NA Member FDIC this episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.
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C
All right, the Women's Final Four is here and a trip to the championship is on the line. We've got familiar matchups, unfinished business, and more history waiting to be made. So Sabrina, let's Dive in and take a closer look at what makes these matchups so, so interesting. These teams are not a surprise. I think probably since last March and April, all of us thought to ourselves, like, well, if all four of these teams end up in Phoenix again, it'll be what it is. But the real question is which side is feeling the pressure and which team is playing with urgency. When you look at South Carolina and UConn on the left side of the bracket, what stands out the most and how do you see the pressure versus urgency breaking down between these two sides?
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D
Well, first things first. I'm just delighted that we get South Carolina, UConn again, because it's become the premier rivalry of this generation of college basketball. Gino versus Don, you know, all of the South Carolina greats versus UConn greats that stack the WNBA, too. Again, delighted that it's back on our calendar. And also that, like, it's very different matchup than it was last season because that was not particularly close. And I think South Carolina basically formed its entire offseason strategy trying to figure out what went wrong in that game and fixing it. I think the pressure really here is on UConn because they are the undefeated team. They are the ones who are favored in this matchup. They, again, absolutely dominated last year, and if they lose, that would be an upset. And it's a rare situation for South Carolina to be in where they are the underdogs and get an opportunity to spring an upset. Like, I don't think Don Staley's been in this position since, like, maybe you can consider last year. They weren't the favorite, but, like, technically they were the 1 seed, and UConn was a 2 seed, whereas this year, UConn comes in as the number one overall seed. So I feel like South Carolina's been playing very free, very loose. Raven Johnson obviously, like, a steadying presence for them, but you've just seen the way, like, t' Ni Latson has occasionally sparkled. And Gott Makir had a great game in the Elite 8 against TCU, as did Joyce Edwards. You know, we've seen good moments from Medina Okot and, like, obviously, tournament Tessa Johnson. So there's just, like, so many different ways for them to pop in a way that I didn't think really happened last year. Whereas, I'm not saying that UConn's not playing well, but they did look a little tight in a couple of those games in Fort Worth. You know, like, the start of the game against Notre Dame wasn't super pretty. The start of the game against North Carolina, Carolina was not super pretty, and South Carolina, defensively, I think, offers as much challenges as those two teams do. So again, weird to say that I think, like, UConn would be playing anything less than their best, but I do think the pressure is really on their side. And South Carolina just gets to come into this like, hey, you know, we were not close last year. We obviously want to be much closer this year. But, yeah, the pressure really is on UConn to maintain this undefeated edge.
- [18:48]
C
I mean, I think when we. We started talking about sort of ideas for this pod and we were thinking about pressure and urgency, and in my mind, I feel like the pressure is on both teams, and I feel like the urgency is kind of on the right side of the bracket, and we'll get to that later with Texas and UCLA and sort of like, this is like, if Vic Schaefer and Corey Close are going to win a national championship, like, this sort of feels like the year for them to do it. Whereas the pressure with Don Staley and Gino Auriemma, like, those are two programs that just consistently reload transfer portal, not transfer port, nil. No, I know, like, all. All the time. They're just reloading. And so I think they have, like,
- [19:23]
D
two of the top recruits in the class coming in next year, too, like Olivia Vicosa, Jersey Robinson going. Each of them. Yeah. So, yeah.
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C
And. And the transfer portal hasn't even opened yet, which, not technically, at least. And so, like, I just think that there is pressure on this matchup, like you said, because it has carried so much weight for women's college basketball. And I think after last season, the way that South Carolina played in that game, like, it was not competitive in. I think that, like, seeing dawn on the sideline being like, I like frustrated, like, that is sort of the image of last year's Final Four for that game, where I think there's a pressure there to basically put their better foot forward and say, like, that is not us. We were on the stage a year ago. We did not put our best foot forward. That was not how we wanted to play. That is not how we could have played, and here is what we can do. And similarly, obviously, UConn is UConn, and so there is an inherent pressure there, and they are riding this 50 plus game win streak and all of those sort of things. But I. I feel like there's pressure on both sides of this. And I agree with you. I think it was very surprising to me because I feel like when I think back to the season, I can probably count on one hand the number of times I saw Sarah Strong play like an underclassman or look flustered. And between the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8, like, probably more instances overall, just in those two games than I had seen all season. At one point, I looked over at Cam, and I was like, my God. I think the thing that Sarah Strong is gonna have to ice the most is, like, her neck because she's shaking her head so much. Like, she seemed just so frustrated, like, shaking her head, like, how is this happening?
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D
How.
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C
Like, not just that she wasn't playing great, but, like, UConn didn't prioritize getting her early shots up and early touches. And it was like, at no. Should you have anyone, Maybe AZ Fudd, but, like, Ashlyn Shade and KK Arnold should not have more shots than Sarah Strong ever. They are excellent players, but Sarah Strong is the best player in the country, and she should have the most shots, like, halfway through the first quarter. And that wasn't always the case. And so I think there's just elements of UConn that gave me pause through the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8. And I think then I take a step back, and I'm like, but it's UConn. And if we're recognizing these things, if we are looking at it and going, that's concerning. Like. Like, we are not the first people to be thinking this. I think every person on that staff, every person in that locker room is thinking that as well. And this is not usually a team that makes the same mistakes twice. And so I think, yeah, that pressure of South Carolina wanting to say, you know, this was not us a year ago. And I think UConn, honestly, like, getting to the Final Four, but looking at their Sweet 16 on Elite 8 matchups and saying, like, you know, we didn't play our best basketball either, I feel like both of them are feeling that pressure.
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D
Yeah. I think with UConn, like, you know, you wrote about this in your story about how they don't cut the nets, right? Like, this is just an expected step, right? And, like, the fact that, like, basically, like, they've done nothing in their season to be proud of right up until this point. Like, that's the way I would interpret it. It's like, they've done nothing to celebrate because all they've done is got to the Final Four, and they haven't had a chance to, you know, commemorate any of it. So, yeah, I think to get here, to get against a South Carolina team that just is a Lot more offensively potent in a way that they weren't last year. They're not as deep, that's for sure. But you have players who can guard Sarah Strong and potentially give her difficulty. It's not just going to all come down to Cass Prosper, which, God bless her, that's a tough matchup. Joyce Edwards has been preparing for this since she was in eighth grade to defend Sarah Strong. And that's what Medina Okad is for. That's what Miriam Dauda is for. That's what, you know, Alicia Tornabes and Agat McIr, like, they all. All of these players are giving you options and, like, that other teams just didn't have. So, yeah, I. I hate to say that, like, the pressure's on a team where, like, they've looked so good all year that, like, why would they feel any pressure? Like, they just go in and get the job done every day. But when the standard is as high as it is, you know, I just think that that adds a little bit extra pressure. And, you know, we're getting to a point in South Carolina where, like, the standard is that high every year, too. Like, Raven Johnson has never not been to a Final Four, and she's been there five seasons. So just it's so interesting on this side of the bracket because you have, like, the historical powerhouses and, like, how cool that we've gotten to appointment South Carolina. We can say historical powerhouse when they hadn't done anything before 2015. So I think it's just fun that, like, we got this, again, great matchup with these great coaches and all of the stories of college basketball, like, of the last decade wrapped up in these two. And, yeah, I mean, yeah, there's pressure, but, like, again, as these coaches would say, like, it's a tremendous privilege to be able to compete against one another.
- [24:16]
C
Well, and I think just the familiarity, again, to go back, like, this is a game and a rivalry that has, you know, meant so much to the game. And also both of these coaches and this record really matters to both of them, whether or not they're gonna publicly say that or not. But they're so familiar with one another, and they've definitely tweaked. Like, we've talked about it a lot. Go back and listen to the South Carolina pod we did earlier this season. Like, this is a team that's a little retooled from last year. It's not exactly the same how they've added pieces and sort of the looks that they might throw at you. And I would say the same thing about UConn. Like I think they have different looks this year. I don't think Gino's really had a player like Blanca Quinones in a ever in a long time, at least. Like I. She's totally different. And then I think similar to South Carolina, UConn has these options that you can bring off the bench that, you know, I don't know if they're as well rounded maybe as some of the options or two way options that you can bring off the bench for South Carolina. But like what a benefit to Yukon that you can throw in someone like Ali ziebel who hit 10 threes in a game this season. And it's like she might not be like a shutdown defender, she might not be the best player on the floor, but like you better as heck get your hand in her face when she started the three point line. Like you can't ignore her. And I think the same thing can be said for Kaylee Heckle. Like she is not going to light the scoreboard on fire, but I swear to God, every game it's like she makes some sort of a circus layup that it's like, how does she get through there? Like, she's pretty shifty and long in a way that feels unexpected. And so I feel like both of these teams have options that make them a little bit different and give them changeups that maybe the other one hasn't. Like Geno hasn't seen this from Don and Don hasn't seen this from Geno, but because they're so familiar with each other, they're each going to be thinking like three steps ahead. I think this game has potential to be one of the best like, like coaching X's and O's matchups that we've seen in a long time simply because not only the familiarity, not only the coaches, not only the skill on the floor, but just sort of like the versatility on these benches as well. That like, let's not forget that Jana L. Alfie had like the game of her life in Columbia, South Carolina. Yeah, like she freaking crossed people over and it was like, has anyone ever seen her do this before?
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D
She's only averaging the Final four last season too.
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C
Incredible game. She's only averaging 12 minutes a game. But it was like, you know, against Notre Dame, UConn needed a board. Like anyone just rebound the ball. And Gina was like, Jana, get in there immediately. Just picks up some boards and is like, okay, you know. And again, she's not necessarily someone who's going to Go out there and like amaze you with everything she does. But she's really good at what they need her to do. And I think the benefit of having the best player in the country and Sarah Strong and one of the best shooters in the country in Easy Fudd is that everyone else just has to be really good at what they do and you can be a very complete team.
- [27:16]
D
Yeah, I mean I think it's interesting just like the, the way we think about the talent on these two teams because Az Fudd and Sarah Strong were both first seam All Americans and South Carolina did not have any first team All Americans this year. Joyce Edwards and Raven Johnson were second and third team. I gotta be honest, I don't think the gap in talent is like as much as it would suggest from that voting. You know, like I don't think obviously Sarah Strong is the best player in this matchup, but like if we had to draft like the top 10, I feel like it'd probably end up like 5 and 5, you know, so I'm
- [27:46]
C
just honestly it might end up 6 and 4 in South Carolina's favor. Like frankly if we're, if we're thinking two way players, like. Right.
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D
Yeah. So I just think that like because of, because of all the talent, because of. Again, I don't think South Carolina is as deep as they always are when they have like you know, two five player units who can run. But there's just a lot of depth, a lot of like you said, change ups that both, both teams can throw. And that's, I think that's what makes this like the, the more exciting matchup of the two. Not to, you know, diminish the next part of our preview here, but it's a good one.
- [28:19]
C
The other side, I think the other side is very exciting. I feel like there is something to be said like let, let's shift our attention to ucla, Texas. Like there is something to be said for. Of urgency and the fact that I think you have two coaches. You know, Vic Schaefer has said that his best basketball team was the 2018-19 group that didn't make it to the national championship game. That had to go out to Oregon, to Portland in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 and play Sabrina Unescu's Oregon team in Portland in the Moda center. And not great. I think maybe North Carolina State and West Moore might have some similar feelings about Bridgeport, Connecticut. But you know, he has always said like that is the best team he ever had. And after they won in the Elite Eight, I just asked him, like, bluntly, Vic, is this the best team you've ever had? And like, he wouldn't quite go there. But I'm also like, really? You think you're going to have another team where you have a fifth year point guard like Rory Harmon, where his system offensively and defensively, like, you need to have that defensive head of the snake that is going to pick up 94ft and just like run the other team into the ground to have an offensive player like Rory who is just like Vic's brain on the floor, so calm, putting the pieces around her. The fact that they do have some three point shooting options this year, like he said, it's his best, if not his second best offensive team. But like, I think this is the best team Vic Schaefer has ever had and I think this is the best team Corey Close has ever had. And you know, throw everything up against the wall with the transfer portal. Like, you know, who knows? I say these are the best teams they've ever had and they each get all of this money share. Yes. To date. But it's like, you know, I'm saying this with the urgency of like, if Corey and Vic want to win a national championship, like this feels like their best shot. And then I'm, you know, watch them pick up like 5 all Americans in the portal and just like run it back next year and we've got the same final four again. But like this. The urgency for coaches, the urgency for players, when you have fifth year seniors, you know, final year seniors like you have for ucla. I just feel like there is so much urgency and the way that Texas also is playing like for Rory in a way, like everyone, she is the heartbeat of that team. And the way everyone talks about her is just like they love her so much and I think they want to win this national championship. Kind of like how we saw for Paige last year in UConn. Like people weren't necessarily saying like, we want to win this national championship so that Paige can finally have one, but like that sort of is the same for Texas. Were they? They probably were. And I'm just, you know, like blacking out from not sleeping over the last few weeks.
- [31:10]
D
It's, it's a little different for Paige because she literally could not enter the pantheon of all time UConn greats without winning a title. Whereas Rory, obviously they want to win a title for her, but like she could still be one of Vic Schaefer's all time greats without winning a title
- [31:24]
C
because she's on the rush standards are
- [31:26]
D
a little different, right?
- [31:27]
C
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's true.
- [31:28]
D
And that's what's interesting about this, this side is that, like, you know, you have South Carolina and UConn, and, like, yeah, of course they expect to be competing for a title every year, but it's not like, oh, my God, we're never gonna get to do this again if we don't win, because Raven's got a couple, you know, like, a lot of people have already won. And, yeah, you know, tonight, Lassen's not another chance. But, like, ucla, Texas, I. I almost don't even know whether to call it pressure or urgency because, like, everybody on UCLA starting lineup is leaving, right? And Rory Armand is leaving. And Texas will have a better opportunity to retool because Madison Booker is still back next season, you know, because Justice Carlson, Jordan, Justice Carlton and Jordan Lee are still returning next year. But, like, when you talk about pressure, like, Corey Close doesn't like to talk about pressure, but she's like, yeah, I mean, how could you not feel it, you know, like, wanting to send these players out, out on the best possible note and thinking about the way they lost to UConn last year and how then it didn't necessarily put a stain on that whole season because it was still historic year for the program and what they were able to accomplish. But if they were to face plant again on this national semifinal stage, like, that just kind of taints the whole era. And, like, again, this is the end of an era. Right? It started with that number one recruiting class, which Kiki Rice and Gabrielle Hawkes are the only remaining members of. But, like, they brought in Lauren Betts, they have all of these grad transfers who have added so much to the program, and, like, it's really now or never. Like, that is urgent. That is pressure. That is all of the things all at once. And also think that they're not playing as well as the other teams in the field right now. Like, they were the ones who were down at halftime to Duke. They were the ones who were surprisingly only up by 10 against Cal Baptist in the first round and outscored by Oklahoma State in the second half of that second round game. And so, like, for all of the talent that they have, they haven't put it together as consistently as Texas, which has won its first four games by 142 points. I'm gonna repeat that 142 points over four games. It's, like, comical. How is that even possible? And, you know, we mentioned UConn, we mentioned South Carolina against Good teams. The big runs that they've had.
- [33:32]
C
Yeah. Against good teams. Like, that's the thing.
- [33:34]
D
Michigan, Kentucky, Oregon, like, very decent teams. Yeah.
- [33:37]
C
Yes. Very, very good teams. Literally, very good teams.
- [33:42]
D
Yeah. I mean, the Elite Eight was won by an average of 23 points over these four games. Like, Texas contributed 36 to that average because, like, UCLA was bringing it down, you know? So I think the urgency comes from a couple factors for the Bruins, because, like, they have to get to a better level, I think, to compete with Texas, the only team to beat them during the regular season. And then they also have the added pressure of, like, oh, my God, this is going to be the end for Lauren and Kiki and Gabs and everybody. Whereas Texas, like, you have the pressure because it is Rory Harmon's last season. But I just don't think that there's, like, the existential, oh, my God, we're never going to have a team this good again because of the pipeline that's already running through. So urgency, for sure, because you want to send out Vic's potentially favorite player ever on a high note, but the pressure has got to be on UCLA here.
- [34:29]
C
Let's not forget about Blair Schaefer here. He did coach his daughter, so I think Blair might have.
- [34:34]
D
She's still around, but, you know, that's true.
- [34:37]
C
That's true. No, and I think what's interesting about these teams is that, like, when we think about this Final Four, the fact that, again, it's the exact same Final Four grouping as last year, three of the four teams played in games in the Final Four where they kind of got embarrassed and played a game that they don't feel great about. Right. Like, for Texas, that was against South Carolina in the final four. For UCLA, that was against UConn in the final Four. For South Carolina, that was against UConn in the title game. Like, three of these four teams are coming back to the exact same stage with a bad taste in their mouth about how they prepared or how they performed, rather, on this stage a year ago. And I do wonder how much that sort of comes into play. Like, everyone knows how many eyes are going to be on women's college basketball this weekend. Like, the numbers are going up. Millions of people are going to be watching. And if you remember, as a player and as a competitor, like. Like, the last time we were here, we did not live up to our own expectation. So I do think there's all of that external pressure as well, but I think there's that internal pressure as well. Like, all of these competitors are going to say, like, beyond, like, this is my last chance to do it. This is our last chance to do it as a team. But like, this is the biggest stage in college basketball, and three of these teams laid a goose egg last year when they were here, except UConn. And so it's like, I wonder how much that internal pressure sort of builds as, you know, the time goes on and as they sort of look at these 40 minutes as both their path forward and sort of redemptive in a way.
- [36:11]
D
Well, that's what makes it so interesting because we have a ton of new faces on this stage. Right. Like, that internal pressure obviously applies to Madison Booker and Rory Harmon and Kiki Rice and, you know, Raven Johnson. But like Medina Ocott, t' Niya Latson, never been here. Right. Like, they don't carry that with them. Gianna Neepkins doesn't carry that with her. Bria Cunningham, however important you think she's going to be like, does not carry that with her. Blanca Cominones or UConn doesn't carry any of that with them. But, like, there's a lot of new faces who have a chance to just make a new impression here. Right. And that's what's so fun, is we have all of these rematches, we have all these matchups that we've seen at some point over the last 12 months, but they're going to look fundamentally different because, like, the team is. The fact that they're back, I think, is a credit to their program. Not so much like just the individual characters, because the teams looked, I think, just so tremendously different than they did at this time last year.
- [37:00]
C
Yeah. And I think, like, all the players you just mentioned are players that have made these teams so much better. Right. Like, they're teams that make them that make me believe that the way that they performed a year ago is not going to be what we see today. Like Gianna Neepkins, the way she has transformed that offense by being able to stretch the floor for them and what she can do for them offensively and defensively with her length. But like, how she provides more space in the middle for Lauren Betts, like, that is huge. Medina, okot like three point. Let's talk about three point shooters. Let's go from Gianna Neepkins to Medina. Okot, but just sort of what she has done for them. Alicia Turnabies, who you mentioned, Blanca Quinones for UConn, she's just very much, like we said earlier, totally different player than Gino's ever had. He kind of says it both ways, that he's really happy she doesn't think as much on the floor, but wants her to think more on the floor.
- [37:55]
D
One of my favorites throws her in the balloway girl.
- [37:57]
C
Yeah. But one of my favorite favorite stories that I, when I was out in stores earlier this season, she told me was that in practice, he will. When he's mad at her, he'll yell at her first in English, twice, like, stop shooting. And then he'll yell at her in Italian. And, like, once he gets to Italian, she knows he means business. So I think they obviously have a really fun relationship, but, like, all of these players have changed up the way that these teams play in a way that I think is, again, for all of the, like, naysayers that are, like, four number one seeds. This is so chalky. Like, I mean, that was us a few weeks ago. Like, ah, so chalky. This is so boring, but also boring.
- [38:40]
D
Like, chalkboards. Really mean boring.
- [38:43]
C
Expected, right? Yeah, so chalky. So expected. You know, I don't really care because this is the best basketball we could have this weekend. Like, upsets would have been fun, but everyone wanted to see these matchups. Like, the moment we put. We saw these names on the brackets, I was like, man, I hope we get four number ones in the final four, because that is how we get the best possible basketball on the final weekend of the year.
- [39:08]
D
No, I completely agree. I think, like you said, we predicted a lot of chalk, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. With any luck, there'll be a piece on the site about this very phenomenon that we're discussing. But there was, like, we talked about this. How many top five teams are there in the country? And, like, there were four all season, right? Like, there were four top five teams. And it's good that, like, even with all of the chaos that this time of year can create, especially on the men's side, like, I'm glad that they got through because I've wanted to know if UCLA has figured out its Texas problem. I've wanted to know how Texas would match up with UConn. Like, I always want to see Don versus Gino. So, like, this is literally the committee finally delivering what we asked of them because, again, they did not deliver the Olivia vs Hannah matchup. But I'm just glad that we say on one point.
- [39:56]
C
They failed us on one point.
- [39:59]
D
No, I'm just. I'm very happy that, like, nothing ruined this because we. We literally spent the whole year talking about how these teams fare against one another. We had that tune up at players era in Las Vegas in November, but that was five months ago now. So just to see how these teams have grown to see, like, what adjustments they've made, I'm really excited. Like, I think this is the best possible outcome we could have hoped for in this final weekend.
- [40:22]
C
Absolutely. All right, Sabrina, before we go, we are going to do some final four if scenarios on the other side. Don't go anywhere.
- [40:31]
A
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B
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- [42:27]
D
All right, Chantel, Final four matchups are set. So in lieu of giving straight predictions, let's just go through some what if senarios. First up, UCLA will win.
- [42:38]
C
If UCLA will win. If they win the three point margin by six or more three pointers.
- [42:48]
D
That's a lot of threes.
- [42:49]
C
That's a lot of threes. They average seven A game. So not out of the. Not out of the question.
- [42:55]
D
1.
- [42:56]
C
No, no, I'm saying makes. Not. Not attempts. I'm saying makes.
- [42:59]
D
Okay, so if they make six more than Texas, this.
- [43:03]
C
Yes.
- [43:04]
D
Okay, got it.
- [43:06]
C
What do you think UCLA will win if?
- [43:10]
D
I think UCLA will win if they attempt as many field goals as Texas because I think they're a much more efficient team than Texas is. But the possession battle really got away from them in that first game.
- [43:23]
C
Right? Yeah. 20 turnovers will do that to you, so. Yeah, that happens.
- [43:28]
D
Mm.
- [43:29]
C
All right. Texas will win if.
- [43:32]
D
Well, I guess this is the same side of the coin, but to avoid repeating myself, Madison Booker dominates her matchup. I just don't think UCLA has anybody to guard her.
- [43:43]
C
All right, Texas will win if. I mean, I think it's going to come down to turnovers again, probably for the Texas side. So I will say I'm trying to think what margin I want to go with. Texas will win. You know what? I'm just going to go straight up. Texas will win if Texas wins the turnover margin.
- [44:01]
D
Cool. All right. On the other side, which we should say is the first matchup today, I thought this was going to be like the nightcap, but prime time on the East.
- [44:08]
C
No, it usually is. Usually is.
- [44:10]
D
Yeah.
- [44:10]
C
Yeah.
- [44:11]
D
All right. UConn will win if. What, Chantel?
- [44:15]
C
If Sarah Strong and Az Fudd play like they're capable of playing, which is not how they played in the sweet 16 in the elite. What do you think, Sabrina? Yukon wins if.
- [44:27]
D
I think that's good. I don't really have a different answer there. I can go. South Carolina will win it.
- [44:33]
C
Yeah. All right. South Carolina will win if.
- [44:36]
D
I was going to say Joyce Edwards and Medina Okot each have to have at least 15 and 10. Maybe 18 and 10. We gotta up it a little bit. 18.
- [44:46]
C
Okay. I feel like that's a good one. Yeah. I mean, I think it's going to come down to the defensive pressure on guards. I think South Carolina will win if they can hold Sarah and AZ to below their or even to their averages this season, because I think their role players around or defensively around those two will be able to hold everyone else to less. So I think if they can hold. Which is sort of again, same side of the coin, but if. If they can hold Sarah and AZ to less than their season averages. South Carolina win.
- [45:23]
D
One thing that I am interested in, just like broadly speaking, and I realize we're about to close out here. These are all teams that.
- [45:29]
C
Let's open up this can of worms Again, these are all teams that rely
- [45:32]
D
a lot on their depth. Right. Like, dawn loves giving her bench players, you know, time to shine. Same with UConn. Same with Texas. You see a little bit less just because they don't have as deep of a bench. But I wonder how much the coaches will just, like, go for the kill. Like, can we get Raven Johnson 38 minutes? You know, can we get strong on the court for as long as possible? Because, like, sure, Maddie McDaniel's gonna be running the point next year. She's not ready to beat UConn right now, I can tell you that. So I just wonder how much kumbaya we're gonna be doing versus. No, this is. This is the. The go for it time.
- [46:04]
C
It is. I mean, it's the Final Four. I don't think you leave, like, there's nothing here. There's no participation trophy. Like, we all, like, everyone is going in for the kill. I feel like, you know, if Sarah Strong, if Raven Johnson, if Lauren Betts needs to play 40 minutes, like, that's what they're gonna play. If Madison Booker needs to play 45 minutes, like, that's what she's gonna play like, I, you know, it was sort of interesting. Similarly, this is a team that's not playing anymore. But thinking back to Notre Dame, like, we were counting, you could count literally the seconds of game clock that Hannah Hidalgo was not in the game for them. And I feel like because of the margins for that team, because it did lack depth against those higher quality teams as it got deeper into the tournament. You know, I think as the competition increases, you're going to see these elite teams shorten their benches. And I think we. We've seen that already through the tournament. Like, you know, there are. It's just the. The natural cause and effect of. Of getting deeper into March and into early April now.
- [47:07]
D
Yeah. Well, as much as I love all of the. The deep ends of the rosters here and, you know, read about Sarah Graves on our peak section of the Athletic. I want to see the big gun for a very long time. That's what I want.
- [47:18]
C
Yeah. If Sarah Graves sees the floor, something has gone very wrong for ucla. As much as I enjoyed seeing her play, like, was heartwarming. The, like, mom in me was like, oh, my God. Like, truly an emotional moment for me. However, if Sarah Graves hits the floor for Texas, something has gone very wrong for ucla.
- [47:42]
D
And I love something I hope for. For long.
- [47:43]
C
Texas personality hire. I love Texas's personality hire. So.
- [47:49]
D
All right, Chantel, before we Leave. The people will want to know what you're thinking. And even though our predictions are worth nothing, who do you think is gonna end up in the national title game on Sunday?
- [47:59]
C
I mean, I'm gonna stick with my bracket because everyone has seen how well that went for me so far. I just want everyone to know, in our group internal bracket challenge, I think I'm second to last. You might. Might be. You are also with me.
- [48:11]
D
Yeah.
- [48:11]
C
We are both the. There are people in this group that are not paid to write and think about basketball, including my husband, who are crushing me, including my father, like, many people are doing much better than I am doing.
- [48:25]
D
Oh, hey, I'm seventh out of 12. Better than I thought.
- [48:28]
C
Where am I? Where am I?
- [48:30]
D
10th.
- [48:31]
C
Okay, great. Super. Wonderful. Okay. I picked UConn over UCLA in the finals, and I will stick to that because I am a bracket purist. I think you make your picks, they're done in pen, and you cannot change your decisions. What about you?
- [48:47]
D
All right, same with me. I'll stick with UConn over Texas. All right, well, thank you for putting yourself on the line there, Shantel, even though you know it's published. Yeah. Yeah. All right, well, that's a wrap for today. Be sure to join us live Tomorrow Morning on YouTube as we break down the expansion draft, winners and losers, and then takeaways from the final four to get you ready for the championship game on Sunday. If you haven't already, please follow our show. And if you're watching on YouTube, please subscribe. You don't want to miss our live reactions to all of these games. Tell your friends to check us out. And while you're at it, give us a rating. Drop us a comment. Five stars, please. We love to hear from you. On behalf of the Athletic and Chantelle Jennings, I'm Sabrina Merchant. Thank you for listening, and we will see you next time.
- [49:34]
A
No Off Season is hosted by Zena Kada with Chantelle Jennings, Sabrina Merchant, and Layja Claire Clarendon. It's produced by Tanika Burrell. Our executive producer is Andrea B. Scott. Monica Compton is our video editor, and Charles Childers is our social video editor. Our theme music is by Marcus Bagala. Shannon Ryan is managing editor of women's basketball at the Athletic. Tim McMaster is our director of operations, and Jesse Burton is global head of Ceres.
- [50:13]
C
We're lost, and kickoff's coming up. I don't want to miss the lineup. I'm gonna ask that man for directions. Hi there. We're trying to get to the stadium.
- [50:22]
B
Well, you're going to take a left at the old oak tree at this here road.
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D
Nah, I'm just kidding.
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B
Let me get my phone out.
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C
How is their signal out here?
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B
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C
Actually, can you pull up the way to a T Mobile store?
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B
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