Sabrina Merchant (3:19)

All.

Zena Cada (3:19)

I don't think she lied. She expressed her frustration with the franchise and her desire for a better roster. Now with these comments, Reese received a half game suspension on Tuesday night. Yeah, I said half game. And yes, I'm talking about the wnba, a professional league. Yeah, last time I seen somebody suspended for half of a game I was in high school. So anyways, eventually the Chicago sky lost to the Aces and she was sidelined with a quote, unquote back injury for their last game of the season Thursday night. You could see people wearing free Angel T shirts in the stands. Now speculation is rampant that Reese wants out and that she is seeking a trade. So first of all, Sabrina, Ben, what are y' all hearing? And also on a rookie contract, what does a trade even look like?

Sabrina Merchant (4:11)

Yeah, so just to lay out the timeline real quick, Angel's comments about her teammates that appeared in the Chicago Tribune were last week, the day that, the day before the Chicago sky played the Connecticut Sun. Her team ended up rallying kind of impressively after those comments and played their last win of the season, admittedly against Connecticut. But a Connecticut team that's been fairly feisty, you know, beat Phoenix this last week. Then after that game, she apologized, you know, to her teammates, saying that the comments were misconstrued, taken out of context. And, you know, that's. That's not how she wants her teammates to feel. Still got suspended after that, but because she was already suspended for a game because of technical foul accumulation, her suspension got pushed into Sunday's game where, as you mentioned, she then didn't play in the second half because she had a back injury. In Angel's defense, she had set nine, seven games earlier in the month with a back injury in August, you know, in the second part of the season. So she was listed as questionable prior to both Tuesday's game against Las Vegas and Thursday's game against New York. Tyler Marsh even said on Tuesday, we expect angel to play heading into the game. And then she did not play and also did not play against New York, though she was sitting on the bench for both of those games. And as you mentioned, you had the free angel signs in the crowd. Free number five signs in the crowd. Chance of free Angel. Free number five, chance of fire. Jeff. Jeff Paglioka being the GM of the Chicago sky and angel sort of, you know, did like a lap around the arena after the game. Could have just been an end of the season. Thank you to our fans. Could have been a end of an era in Chicago. Thank you to the fans. So a lot of intrigue around a team that won about 25% of its games this year. And you know, you talk about what could go here going forward. I mean, clearly there's a rift between Chicago sky management and Angel Reese. Weather management chooses to like get over it and repair this relationship with Angel Reese is like one course of action. They could also just say, you know, this is a line in the sand. She disrespected fellow players on the team. We're not going to tolerate this. We're going to move her. But it seems like the court of public opinion definitely on Angel Reese's side. It'll be interesting to see how fellow WNBA executives react to this because even heading into the draft like last year, there was some, you know, like consternation, I want to say, about getting into the Angel Reese business just because of the celebrity and following that she has. And it comes with, you know, more than just the basketball package, which to be clear, angel race two time all star, very good basketball player. But there is a lot more that comes with the experience of being an angel race team.

Ben Pickman (6:41)

To your question too, Zena, about just trades like, yes, she is on a rookie contract. That means she is cost controlled. She is under contract. That means, you know, in theory she has some leverage. The way you might see an NFL player try and hold out or hold in before, you know, the start of a preseason if they want a different contract or they want maybe to play for a different team. But like she is not a free agent. So she does not have complete autonomy in this situation. Even if she were to request a trade hypothetically and she put in trade requests like she's not a free agent. She can't just go sign with, you know, whatever team like so many other veteran players this offseason as it relates to her trade market. One of the things that I think about, you know, when thinking when either talking to executives, both generally and also in this case is you don't need every team in the league to want you to want to trade for your services potentially to have a trade market. It is much like A draft in professional sports or it's much like anyone's kind of normal job. Like when you, the layperson go to apply for a job, you might have interviews with two or three different companies at one time. And yes, you want multiple companies to potentially give you an offer so that you have some leverage and you have more of a market. But if you apply for 12 jobs, you're probably not going to get 12 people to send you an offer. Right. And so in this situation as well, like it is okay. And frankly it's expected that, you know, we've asked some people around the league, like I think you can certainly cross off some teams who might not be interested in Angel Reese and that just might because they have veteran players. That might be because they have veteran cores. That might be because, you know, they're in a different place in their franchise like life cycle. You, they might want to compete for a title next year. They might not want to compete for a title at all going forward. Like each team is in a different circumstance. So when you see reports or when you hear that like only X number of teams might be interested in Angel Reese, that's not necessarily like a, like a total value judgment or a judgment on the player, but sometimes the context factors in as it relates to her specific trade market. Like I think one of the things we're trying to figure out is who, who potentially if she were to request a trade and, or if Chicago would look to move her, would be interested. Right. Because again you have this player who is entering her third season. She's on a cost control contract as we're talking about. She's made two all star teams. Yes, she certainly, you know, attracts a lot of attention on and off the court. Also, like we've seen that, you know, one of the things Chicago's trying to figure out is what kind of player fits well next to Angel Reese and what kind of player does she fit well next to? Right. Is that another non shooting big? Like I'm going to throw out a hypothetical team here. Washington, for instance, a team that is rebuilding has a young core. Kiki Areafen not exactly a three point shooter yet either. Maybe that's a team she could go to in a hypothetical trade scenario. But like then you have two non three point shooting bigs. What does the spacing look like there though? You have Sidney Johnson, a coach who has at least familiarity with angel from his last or her rookie season in Chicago. He was an assistant coach there. A team like Dallas, you know, another interesting possibility, just because they're Another young team on the upswing. Like I'm just trying to figure out what the market might look like hypothetically. It's unlikely that a team say like New York or Las Vegas is in the Angel Reed sweepstakes if there is even one, because of just where they are at. So those are some things to kind of generally think about when you know, trying to think about what the market could look like and what might be next. And maybe it is just Chicago and we'll see what other changes, if any they make around her.

Zena Cada (10:15)

And just quickly, you mentioned it's a cost control contract. She is on a rookie contract. Is it easier to try and fit her into a budget because basically a salary cap because she has a lower salary?

Sabrina Merchant (10:25)

Well, every team has just oodles and oodles of salary cap at this point because nobody is under contract beyond a rookie contract this season. So that's not gonna really be a concern going forward. And yeah, during the off season you can be a lot more flexible with how salaries work than if it's an in season trade.

Zena Cada (10:39)

Awesome. Okay, I, this is really fascinating. The amount of commentary I got in my DMs, I've seen all on, all over social media. You know, of course we just mentioned like the free angel thing. There were two things that were interesting to me that I've seen a lot of people have directly said this to me and I've seen a lot of is like number one, people have said that Angel Reese is quote unquote, not good enough to be calling for a trade or to be calling out her teammates in this way. And I just found that so fascinating. Particularly because we're not pro athletes, right? That are, we're not in the league, we're not pro athletes. And you know, people that are saying these things are probably like everyday workers, employees of corporate America. And I was just thinking to myself like the fascinating hypocrisy of. Imagine you see something wrong with your organization that you work in every single day. And maybe there's like a culture of old boys network, right? Or maybe there's a culture of like bad financial decisions. Or maybe whatever it is, you've seen this recurrent theme within your organization, but you're a manager, you're not a vp, you're not a president, you don't have the title or you don't have the salary that comes with it, or you haven't been there long enough not qualify to call out something being wrong, especially if everyone else can see it. It's not as if she's saying things that no one else can prove through numbers. I would, I would say that if you're seeing something that everyone else can see, you're pretty qualified to be able to call it. Not to mention angel is the only player in the WNBA that is leading her team in points, rebounds and assists. Probably, probably qualified to do that. Um, and the other thing that's really interesting is people have also mentioned that Angel Reese doesn't like hang out with her teammates enough and she's not always around her teammates. And so there's been a rift between her and her teammates throughout the entire year. Now I have. There is no evidence, in my opinion that is completely subjective of us, you know, observing that, whatever. But we don't put the same standard on the men in any pro sport. We don't say that, you know, Aaron Rodgers needs to have weekly barbecues, which.

Sabrina Merchant (12:52)

We don't need to compare to Aaron Rodgers. That's fine.

Zena Cada (12:54)

Yeah, that's fair too.

Sabrina Merchant (12:55)

That's fair too.

Zena Cada (12:56)

But I'm just saying, like, there's a lot of folks in this professional space that we don't say that they need to be Kumbaya. This isn't college folks. These are people's jobs. And I'm not even trying to cape here for Angel Reese. I'm just saying you don't have to have the expectation that everyone's gonna be best friends in order for things to work. But yeah, I've been seeing and following this commentary and it's just like the hypocrisy is fascinating. Cuz some of y' all don't wanna go to your happy hours at work, let alone be able to constantly be around teammates and the ways that these WNBA players are. People just want to come to work and be able to win. And I don't think there's anything wrong with that competition. So I am very. I'm curious as to how this is all going to play out. Sabrina, thank you. I know you just did a piece on this, you know, kind of giving the update of everything that's going on. Um, I appreciate you guys keeping us on top of all of this and we'll keep it going. We'll see what happens. All righty, well, let's keep it moving cause we've got a preview of every first round matchup coming up. Talk about stepping up.

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Zena Cada (15:39)

Okay, now, after a regular season full of dramatic finishes, historic performances, and sadly some significant injuries, postseason is upon us. And the first round of the WNBA playoffs kicks off this Sunday. We've got eight teams ready to square off and they're all playing their first games on Sunday. Back to back to back to back. Love that wnba. Appreciate that. So let's preview all these matchups right here. Whether you're a fan that's brand new to the WNBA and this is your first WNBA postseason or an og, we're going to give you kind of a breakdown of how that works the the playoffs because they they've shifted a little over the course of the last few years. So Sabrina, leg out how these rounds go. Particularly how many rounds are there, how many games are in round and what's the home and away format? Because I've now heard two different players incorrectly reference the first round and I don't know if people realize, you know, what the breakdown is. So give us all the details.

Sabrina Merchant (16:39)

Yeah, so this is a three round post season in the wnba. You've got the quarterfinal round which is a best of three series. Then the semifinals which is best of five and the finals which for the first time in WNBA history is the best of seven. The last possible date for the finals is October 17th. We've got about a month long sprint here of this WNBA postseason, the first round in previous seasons has been two games for the home team like they host. And then the lower team, the lower seated team, I should say, gets to host the final game. The WNBA has now switched it to 1, 1, 1. So everybody gets to host a team no matter how many games there are in the series. Everybody gets to host a game, I should say, no matter how many games there are in a series. So like for instance, if you've got Atlanta, Indiana, first game is going to be in Atlanta, second game is going to be in Indiana, third game if necessary, we're back in Atlanta. Best of five and best of seven are like more traditionally how you'd expect two to one for best of five and then for the best of seven is two two, which could be a lot of travel if we get to that point. But basically what happened is, you know, the last few years the WNBA has had this 2:1 format, and most teams just don't end up getting to host a playoff game like last year. There were sweeps in all four first round series. And so this is an opportunity for every game that qualifies, every team that qualifies for the postseason to get to host a playoff game as a reward for their success during the regular season.

Ben Pickman (17:52)

Ooh.

Zena Cada (17:52)

And that's the interesting thing because people are saying, well, if we don't get to, if we don't win at home, like, let's say the away team steals that first game, there's a possibility that they don't get, they don't get the home court advantage to try and keep their season alive because they have to go away. So if you're a home court team or a home team with a higher seed, you're kind of like, well, damn, do your job on the first game or else you're screwed to, you know, series.

Sabrina Merchant (18:20)

Not a lot of time to mess around.

Zena Cada (18:22)

Not a lot of time to mess around. Okay, so this is going to happen between September 14th, starting this Sunday and the last possible date of that 22111 finals is October 17th. So buckle up, y'. All. It's gonna be a long month, okay? Potentially. Now let's get into our first playoff preview. We've got four series and we're gonna try to spend about six minutes talking about each one, breaking down our thoughts, stats you need to know, et cetera. Before we get into some of these stats, we're gonna talk about really quickly. We're gonna mention offensive rating, defensive rating, net ratings, and I want to just quickly bend, explain to our Audience, how an offensive rating is calculated, why is it important? Or these ratings in general, offensive or defensive rating, um, and how do they help us get an, you know, peer into what could possibly happen between these two teams?

Ben Pickman (19:13)

Yeah, we always throw them out as kind of statistics in the course of our conversations. And I think on the show we're just going to use them as table setting metrics. More generally, Offensive rating is just how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. Defensive rating, how many points they allow per 100 possessions. And basically that is a standard because teams play at different paces, right? Some teams play faster, some teams play slower. And so, you know, when you put things on a per 100 possession basis, that is basically the way to create some equivalency across the board and kind of take the pace at which a team plays out, you know, minimize the importance of that when evaluating their offense or defense. So that, that's why they're table setting metrics for us in this conversation.

Zena Cada (19:51)

And in general, I love it. And I can imagine in this first conversation, I know Golden State does not love to see where Minnesota land on those metrics. And that is our first matchup that we're going to talk about. Minnesota Links number one seed going up against the number eight seed, Golden State. They took a loss on Thursday night which locked them into that number eight seed. And they're going up against Minnesota that is number one in offensive rating, number one in defensive rating, number one in net rating, Golden State, number 10 in offensive rating, number three in defensive rating, netting out at number eight in net rating.

Sabrina Merchant (20:26)

And.

Zena Cada (20:26)

And Minnesota swept them, including that last game. The last two, though, were pretty competitive. They, Minnesota, Minnesota and Golden State literally battled the week before, or I guess maybe that Sunday before the Thursday matchup. And it was close in that Sunday matchup. And then Thursday it was close until the third quarter and then fourth quarter, things kind of just kind of blew up. So talk about both of these teams. Sabrina, I'm going to start with you. How is Minnesota approaching this game knowing they went 40 against Golden State? They feel pretty confident in what their scheme is against this team. But Golden State's kept it close with them, particularly in these last two matchups.

Sabrina Merchant (21:08)

I thought it was interesting because Minnesota had a lot of agency in who they were going to play in this first round series. Coming into Thursday night, it was either going to be Golden State or Seattle. And if Minnesota won, they could lock golden state into that 18 matchup. And we've seen Minnesota selectively rest players ever since they secured the number one seed. They've rested Caleb McBride for a game, rested Anfisa Collier, rested Alanna Smith and on the regular season finale they played everyone. So it seemed to me that this is a game they wanted to win in order to secure that matchup with the Valkyries, because as you mentioned, swept the Valkyries during the regular season, only two and two against Seattle during the regular season. So I think they feel a lot more comfortable about this matchup. To me it's, you look at it and who's supposed to guard Nafisa Collier. And I look at Golden State's front court and yes, you have Mo Billings and Temifack Benlay and Ileana Roper, like pretty solid front court trio just in terms of their different skill sets and like ability to attack the glass and things of that nature. I don't think any of them is really capable of guarding the piece of Collier. And that, that to me is where this starts and ends. So if Collier can get going, I mean we saw what she did in the first round of the playoffs last year. She puts up 40 points in that opener against the Phoenix Mercury, ends up leading the postseason. Endpoints, you know, when it's all said and done, but like if you can't figure out a way to address that, then all of a sudden you're sending extra bodies at Collier. That's getting Minnesota's offense in motion and they have incredible three point shooting beyond her, whether that's Caleb McBride, Atlanta Smith, you know, Bridget Carlton. So to me it's who's going to take that Collier matchup and does Golden State have a better answer than they did during the regular season?

Ben Pickman (22:37)

And we've seen Golden State frustrate teams like Biggs throughout the regular season. They were the best paint defense in the league, just under 30 points per game. But as you mention, Sabrina, like Minnesota's three point shooting is also a strength. And Golden State allows more three pointers per game than any other team in the league. And Minnesota shoots more three pointers or shoots a better percentage of three pointers than any team in the league. Nearly 38% number one overall. I just don't understand or the question I have is how is Golden State going to score, right? Like they're just not going to score enough points in my opinion to keep pace with Minnesota. Plain and simple, like Minnesota is just behind Seattle in the most fast break points per game. Golden State scores the fewest fast break points per game. We see the Valkyrie score the fewest, you know, paints in the points in the paint per game, the Links don't really allow, you know, they don't allow transition baskets and their paint defense also is pretty solid. We know pace slows down in the postseason. That's a lot on Veronica Burton, Janelle Salon. Like Chachi Zander Lasini, how are these players going to generate offense, especially when you have an elite offense. As we talked about Minnesota, a lead on defense but also a lead on offense. Like to me, to me this is two. Zero written all over it. Golden State has had a great season. Should be applauded for getting into the playoffs. But as Sabrina said, it seems like Minnesota wanted to play the Valkyries and this is a very, very good matchup for the Minnesota Links.

Zena Cada (23:59)

I've heard pundits around the Minnesota Links say that the Seattle Storm are a quote scary team for the Links to match up against and I can see why they wanted to ensure they got the Golden State Valkyries. This is a team that has kept them very much in their lower scoring numbers. The first, the last, the second to last time they matched up, neither team had over 20 points in a quarter. Other than that 30 point quarter that ended up getting Minnesota, the Links, the lead and also the win in that fourth matchup. It was almost going to be an under 70 performance from the links again until that fourth quarter again. I mean the defense that the Golden State Valkyries can put up is awesome but as Ben mentioned, it's definitely the scoring. For me, Collier is a problem. It's the bench. How can Golden State contain that bench? Especially when you consider the second you have Courtney Williams come off the floor for a little bit. Natisha Heideman's coming right back in behind her. Those are veteran guards and they're also scoring guards. You've got to be able to contain shooters on Minnesota, but you also have to be able to contain the drive and usually, yeah, the paint defense is number one for the Golden State Valkyries. But if they can't get the control of Minnesota Links in terms of just the, the energy and the pace and the ball movement that they play with, that paint defense, that help line defense is going to be scrambling and it's not going to be in position to be able to shut down that paint. So it's going to be an interesting matchup in terms of it'll be in the mud. It's going to be a tough one. Not going to be the high scoring numbers we typically see of Minnesota. But, but ultimately I do think that Minnesota will come out victorious. Now do I think it's going to be 2, 0. That part I don't know about that. All right, let's keep it moving. I like this breakdown so far. We got to talk a little bit about the team that Minnesota did not want to face and that was number seven, Seattle Storm. They're going to go up against number two, the Las Vegas Aces. The Aces are on fuego fire. In Spanish, guys, I would say fu in Spanish, I mean in French, but it's like doesn't, it doesn't hit the same. Okay, but they're on fire folks. They are rolling into the playoffs on a 16 game winning streak.

Sabrina Merchant (26:09)

16.

Zena Cada (26:10)

It's crazy. Seattle punched their way into the postseason with a 74 to 73 win Tuesday night over the Valkyries. Talk about drama. Erica Wheeler was putting on a clinic. It was, it was phenomenal to watch. But this is a perfect my drama. Perfect setup. Jewel Lloyd going back into her old den to face off with her former team, Las Vegas. Number four offensive rating, number eight in defensive rating, number five net rating. And let's just be real, if you look at the second half of the season versus I, I feel like that number jumps up. Seattle, number eight in offensive rating, number four in defensive rating, number seven in net rating. It's two.

Sabrina Merchant (26:49)

Two.

Zena Cada (26:49)

I mean it's, it looks pretty evenly split here, but again there's one team that's on a 16 game winning streak. There's another team that lost two games to put themselves in the playoffs before they finally won that third. So Ben, I'm start with you. What are your big questions on your mind here for this matchup?

Ben Pickman (27:10)

Yeah, to me, you know, we've seen some competitive matchups between these two teams. But we have also seen two teams who are entering the postseason with very different energies kind of around them. Seattle, I guess backing in so to speak to the postseason kind of as the number seven seed. And the Vegas Aces, as you mentioned, Xena, the 16 game win streak. I mean the two things that jump out to me a big picture is how different these teams play in crunch time because the Las Vegas Aces have been the best team in the WNBA in clutch moments this situ this season, 145 in those situations with a plus 29 net rating. So they outscore teams by 29 points around per 100 possessions in these crunch time situations. Seattle, by comparison, they play in a lot of close games and they are not very good at it. They're just 14 and 15 with a minus 12 per 100 possessions point differential in those situations. And that is pretty jarring considering the amount of talent and veteran talent on that team. And so the question that I really have heading into this series, the big X factor, I guess is Dominique Malanga. That is the player that I have circled to be like, what are you getting out of her? Because in the closest game between these two teams in August, we should say was a Las Vegas Aces win. Damalonga had one of the best games of her career. Watching it back, she had 22 and 12 in just 25 minutes. And she was scoring not only over, you know, Megan Gustafson and Kia Stokes, but she was finishing around Asia Wilson. She was drawing fouls on Asia too. Not afraid to go out, you know, the potential league mvp. And so someone like Dom Alonga to me could be this X factor, this breakout star if they're able to get a lot of production out of her. I do think kind of the this series has the potential to shift a little bit because we have seen, you know, Seattle has firepower, but they need a little bit of push off the bench and someone like Malanga could be that player. Seattle loves to run and get out in transition. They score more fast break points than any other team. So the energy that someone like her can bring if they're able to create turnovers, get stops, push pace and throw to Malonga in transition like that is a big factor for them. But if this series is played in the half court and if it's played in late game situations, it's hard to see Seattle breaking through and it would be far easier to see the Aces advancing again. I will say 20 here. I'm just going to throw my predictions on the record. I got no problem either way on this.

Zena Cada (29:19)

Okay, Sabrina?

Sabrina Merchant (29:20)

Yeah. I think the Malanga X factor is really interesting because these are two teams that have played a lot in the postseason. They met in 2020, they met in 2022, they met in 2024. And I think a lot about the 2022 matchup between these two teams because it sort of resembles what's going to happen here in this upcoming series. The Storm acquired Tina Charles midseason and it was this eternal battle of who was more productive in those center minutes. Tina Charles versus Ezzy Magnagor. And I thought Noel Quinn leaned way too far into Tina Charles. And we're seeing of the opposite end of the spectrum here where Dominique Malanga wasn't a mid season acquisition, but it feels like she sort of leveled up at the break and has become an entirely different player in July, August, you know, compared to the start of the season and The Storm are dramatically better with her on the court now compared to when Ezzy's on the court. You know, there are I think 6 points per 100 possessions better with Dominique Malanga on the court compared to Ezzy, who had a negative on off differential after the All Star break. And yet you see a lot of these games down the stretch. Storm was still closing with Ezzy Magmagor and so I wonder just how quickly can Dominique Malanga grow up? How quickly does Noel Quinn trust Dominique in these situations? Because the data I think is pretty clear that Malanga has been better than Essie Maglevo for a substantial period of the Seattle Storm season and yet she hasn't been treated that way. The Storm still lean on their five player starting group quite heavily and if anybody breaks into that, it's Erica Wheeler. It's not Dominic Balanga. So I think, I think that Malanga Asia Wilson matchup how front court heavy the Aces are willing to go because Seattle's got a lot of bigs they can throw a direction. We haven't even mentioned Neko Gumake yet who just quietly one of the most efficient players of all time in WNBA history. And Aces have had a lot of success going much smaller. We talk about these lineups that have Chelsea Gray at the four and you're playing her alongside Jewel Lloyd and Dana Evans and Jackie Young or maybe a Leon I is thrown in there and I wonder just what that battle between a smaller Vegas team versus a bigger Storm team is and then just exactly what kind of big Storm team we're going to get. Because I think we all really just want to see what the future of Dominique Malanga is and what better way to test her in the fire than okay, well here's Asia Wilson. Let's see what you got.

Zena Cada (31:24)

Literally this one of the reasons why Dominic Malanga is up as a conversation person for six Woman of the year. But like she has been significantly better in the second half of the season, leading all bench players and production and just thinking about her paint points as well, I am very excited for this grow up moment here. I think all the French rookies have just like blossomed perfectly over the course of this season and Dominique Malonga definitely being the one that feeds them. Ben, I'm with you. That fourth quarter is going to be key. It's going to be huge for Seattle to see what they can do. But right now I got to go with Vegas. They're, they're looking good, they're looking confident, they're they looking solid inside and out. I Think it's gonna be a little two zero situation over there. Let's keep it moving though. Atlanta Dream number three going up against number six, Indiana Fever. This is a team that has battled through so much adversity in terms of their roster just kind of being depleted over the course of the year. During the regular season, the two teams split their series matchup to two. Sabrina, I'm gonna start with you. Key factors we're looking at this team. Atlanta number two in defense rating, number two in offensive rating, number two in net rating. Indiana number three in offensive rating, number seven in defensive rating, number four net rating. What are your thinking or what are your thoughts?

Sabrina Merchant (32:39)

Honestly, I'm kind of impressed at how the Fever grayed out numbers wise because this is kind of the team that I think a lot of the upper seeds were sort of jockeying to face in the postseason just because of all the injuries that they faced. And yet to finish the season with a number four net rating like a top four team in the wnba, I think is exactly where Indiana wanted to start the regular season. So that's honestly credit to Kelsey Mitchell, credit to Leah Boston and whoever has been healthy remaining for the Indiana Fever that they've gotten to this point. For me, this is an Aaliyah Boston series. I think about last year when they played Connecticut and Aaliyah Boston basically played Bree Jones off the court in that series. And now Bree Jones is on Atlanta and I just don't think she can guard Aaliyah Boston. And I don't think Stephanie White thinks that Brie Jones can guard Aaliyah Boston now that she's on the other side of that matchup. Having been Bree Jones coach last season, is this now a Brittney Griner series? Is this a series where the guards just have to pressure the ball a lot more to prevent it from getting to Aaliyah Boston. Like, how do we see Aaliyah Boston use? Is it more as a roller? Is it just feeding her in the post and letting her go to work on Brie Jones? I'm just fascinated because I thought she was so good in her playoff debut last year. And Bri Jones, yeah, she might be more experienced all those runs with Connecticut, but Connecticut turned away from her in those series last year. They went smaller. They went with more of Olivia Nelson Odota. They played more four out with Alyssa Thomas as the lone big. So I think this is sort of like a redemption time for rejoins to see if, like, hey, maybe that was just a fluke and I can help my team go deep in the postseason again or we have to see Atlanta get creative. And frankly, the Dream have one of the deepest benches in the wnba. We're talking about six Uminazoon, who was already promoted in the starting lineup. You've got BG coming off the bench. You've got Maya Caldwell, who's had a really good season, Tahina Powpow off the bench. So the Dream have a lot of options should they have to tinker with their starting lineup. But I really think that if Aaliyah can establish herself early, this could get kind of interesting for the future.

Zena Cada (34:25)

And Ben, this is what's so crazy about this, particularly the Aaliyah Boston conversation is she's evolved. Her game has evolved in which she is further away from the basket. She's involved in more handoffs and more pitches and more opportunities to set up her teammates, which allows her to get set up as teams scramble to try to figure out who to guard in those situations. But Bree Jones has also evolved in the sense that she's now the person in the middle, the cog in the middle, helping spray the ball out for all the threes that are being put up in Atlanta. So both of these players evolving in terms of their positioning within offenses for both teams, what are your, what are your thoughts on how they're going to match up against each other?

Ben Pickman (35:03)

Well, I like the word evolution here in this conversation because when thinking about this matchup in the regular season, we have seen a lot of evolution from when these teams played the very first, the second and third and fourth times. Because these teams have not played in the second half of the season. They got all four matchups out of the way in the first half. And so it is one of those cases in which going back back and watching the film and looking at the box scores and checking out what happened in the past is not necessarily going to be indicative of what we see in this series going forward. Just as an example, Caitlin Clark played in some of those games. Dwana Bonner played in some of these games. I mean, literally, Atlanta and Indy played in the second and third game of the season for the Atlanta Dream. They played so early in the season that when these teams met the first time way back in May, Nas Hillman played. Anyone want to guess how many minutes you played? Sabrina got a thought on she was.

Sabrina Merchant (35:49)

Getting like DNP the first couple of games she played.

Ben Pickman (35:53)

Crazy to think she played five minutes in the first game between these two teams. Like, that is not going to happen in the postseason. The Atlanta Dream have figured A lot out since then. To me, a lot of the series, Sabrina talked about Aaliyah Boston. It's going to come down to the glass, like who wins the pain and who dominates the boards. Because the fever lead the WNBA in second chance points per game. A lot of that is Aaliyah Boston and what she is able to do. Whereas Atlanta is the best defensive rebounding team team in the wnba. And that is because of, you know, Bri Jones and Brittany Griner and Nas Hillman and that really, so much of their offensive efficiency, the impetus comes from, you know, rebounding the basketball and then getting into the offense that they want. Like, I like Atlanta's versatility. They have too many options kind of off the bench. And Alicia Gray as well. I mean, Kelsey Mitchell could have a huge game here. Aaliyah Boston could have one of those games that leads this series to go to three games. But, you know, we talked about it last week, I guess Sabrina and I. So I'm not gonna backtrack it here. Like, I'm gonna be consistent in the first round. I know Sabrina teed it up with we could potentially see an upset. But I like Atlanta here again, 20 advancing with Jones having a big series, Nas Hillman having a big series. And there's no reason to suspect Alicia Gray and Ryan Howard, we should say. Also, I think Ryan Howard in game ones, like, averages more than 30 points per game. She just goes off how many of.

Sabrina Merchant (37:08)

Those game ones she won?

Ben Pickman (37:10)

That's a fair question. But I do think this dream team is much better. So give me the dream 20 as well.

Zena Cada (37:15)

Yeah, the dream have a depth that other teams are, like, praying for at night. And the depth has just, like revealed itself over the course of the season, which is really unfair when you think about it. It's like, seriously, in season acquisitions from your own bench, it's just like, damn it. Okay, let's keep it moving to our last series. Number four, Phoenix Mercury versus number five, New York Liberty. I mean, two teams that have been conundrums this season for me personally, just like up and down, but always kind of like for New York, it's always like we have this bias towards them. I think we have a little bit of recency bias towards them and that they're gonna be good. They're fine. Well, they're not. They don't have home court advantage in this situation. They're going in with the Phoenix Mercury, who actually have been pretty generally great all this season. They. They closed out their last game of the season with the loss against the Dallas Wings. But alas, we can't be judged on the last game of the regular season before you get ready for the playoffs. So let's keep it moving. Phoenix, they face off against the New York Liberty in four regular seasons games this season, and they've won three of those. And they're number seven in offensive rating, number five in defensive rating, number six net rating. And then New York number five in offensive rating, number six in defensive rating, number three in net rating. Who I don't know what to make of this series. Ben, I'm start with you. Is the 3:1 lead that Mercury had over or not lead the final in the regular season over New York a little misleading, especially considering their injuries?

Ben Pickman (38:49)

Yeah, I mean there's been a lot of injuries for New York, especially here. So the Liberty have not necessarily been at full strength. But I will say even the game that the New York Liberty won, which was a game in which Stewie, JJ and Sabrina Unescu played like, yeah, I think the final result was a double digit victory for the New York Liberty. But the Phoenix Mercury led late into the third quarter of that game and it was really a five or six minute stretch at the end of the third into the fourth quarter that pushed New York ahead. And in that stretch and in that third quarter in particular, Sabrina Unescu really had one of her better stretches of the entire season. She finishes that victory. The one New York win in this matchup with 29 points. That's kind of been an anomaly in this match up all season long because we have seen Phoenix have some success defending Sabrina Ionescu. When these teams met back in June, the middle of June, Sabrina was just 3 of 16 from the field, one of 10 from three. A week after that game, which was a game that Phoenix won, they had and Sabrina shot just 2 of 9 from the field. And so we have seen Phoenix do a really, really good job defending Sabrina Unescu. And that really to me is going to be one of the keys to this series is is Phoenix able to slow down Unescu with, you know, Monica Ko Makani with Kalia Copper? Like can those wings, those guards, Sammy Wickham, he held, can they slow down Unescu and stop kind of the head of the snake for New York? I do think New York is a tough matchup generally for Phoenix because they also have the bigs who are versatile enough to throw at Alyssa Thomas. Right. To throw at Satu Sable. And we have seen them have some success right in that game I mentioned that New York won. That was one of SATU's worst shooting games of the season, 3 of 13 from the field, oh of 6 from 3. And New York is able to throw John Quality Jones, Brianna Stewart on her, Leonie Phoebus on Sabali on Thomas. They're able to mix and match when switching. That is a real advantage for New York in this series. I'll be consistent here, I guess. Let me change it up. I'll be consistent in making a pick. I'm gonna pick New York, but I'm gonna pick them here in three games. I think they split the first two and then they actually go on the road to Phoenix, show their kind of championship bona fides and knock off the Phoenix Mercury here in the series.

Zena Cada (40:55)

I don't know, Sabrina. That chip on the shoulder of Phoenix sound looks big. It looks like I can dip it in some guac. I don't know. What do you think?

Sabrina Merchant (41:02)

Well, I just want to go back to that 31 regular season advantage again because the only game in which Phoenix's big three and New York's big three played was the game that New York won. So you can count Phoenix's wins as three wins. They do count in the standings. It's part of why they have home court advantage in this series. But if you're looking at the lineups that are going to be playing in this playoff series, in that matchup, New York had the advantage and I think the front court is a really good place to start because I think about all of the difficulty that Connecticut historically had with Seattle back when Stewie was there because she is such a good defender on Alyssa Thomas. And I think about the New York Connecticut matchup in the 2023 playoffs when they won 31 in that semifinal series and pretty cleanly shut down Alyssa Thomas. I don't really know how Natasha Mack is supposed to hold up with Jonquil Jones if Jonquil is at her playoff best self, the 2024 Finals MVP. To be fair, we haven't seen a lot of that Jonquil Jones this season and that's that to me is always the question with New York Ceiling is what version of Jonquil Jones are we getting? Because I know Sabrina Nescu gets the crowd going at Barclays center and she is the director of their offense. But Jonquil Jones is the most matchup proof player in the New York Liberty. Nobody really has the goods to stop her if she is playing to her potential. There's that stat that the New York Liberty are undefeated in the regular season when Jonquil Jones has a double double right. If she just plays to her potential. Potential. This Liberty team gets dramatically difficult to stop. And for as good as Natasha Mack has been this season, really cementing herself as a rotation player in the wnba. That is a really hard defensive assignment to go up against Jacqueline Jones, just the size that Jonquil has. And Mack is more of a space defender, really, not like a straight up post defender just because of the physicality Jonquil brings to the table. So I worry about Phoenix's front court in that situation. But maybe, you know, we talk about depth. Phoenix has been playing basically 11 of their players all season, so maybe you have to go a little bit bigger. Kehlani Brown taking on, you know, the size in that matchup, maybe you try to go just smaller and space the floor and play a little more. Cat Westfeld at the 5 and, you know, just bombard New York with your shooting. New York actually does limit the three fairly well. But again, this is a team that has been fairly inconsistent over the course of the season. So, uh, this is, I mean, it should come as no surprise. It's the four or five series. It's the one I have the least feel on, especially because we have such little tape coming in on it. But I kind of like Phoenix's just overall depth and like they've been a little bit more consistent over the course of the regular season. I just don't think that they have the specific tools needed in this matchup, you know, inside to really contend with New York. And that's sort of why I think New York's going to win the series.

Zena Cada (43:33)

Yeah, the Jonquil Jones X factor, it's so fascinating. She's like the only superstar that is consistently an X factor every single season in terms of how she's gonna show up. I'm looking at Kehlani Brown and Natasha Mack, and I'm quite literally like picturing them having to go back and forth between having to guard Jean Claude Jones outside on the perimeter, you know, particularly when she's coming in and trail or whatever, and then also having to guard her inside. And that is. That makes me uncomfy. It does make me uncomfy. So I do think that there will be a factor of it's gonna be close games, but if Jean Jones shows up to play, and I would say Sabrina might be an X factor as well as her shots on as well. I think that this will be a Liberty sweep. Okay, now we're gonna make our WNBA title predictions. Talk about stepping up.

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Zena Cada (46:01)

All right friends, it is time to predict who is going to win it all. Of course, presented by our friends betmgm Lock in every basket with this WNBA SGP Boost Token. Use your token on any WNBA SGP and you'll score a bigger payout if your SGP wins. All righty guys. I started this season preseason saying I think the Minnesota Lynx are going to win it all. They were the most well rounded, balanced team. They had the most chemistry coming into this season in terms of familiarity with each other and I believe that is still true for them. I think it will come down to a factor of health and just making sure that everyone is able to to play. And you know, there's no Alanna Smith situations that we experienced and saw last year in the WNBA Finals. I'm gonna tell you right now, every time Alanna Smith tweaks anything and I see what feels like it might be tears coming to her eyes, I'm like, no, no, I refuse. And then she finds a way to play it through it. But I think I'm gonna stick with my prediction. I think Minnesota Lynx are going to win it all. I don't know who they're going to face up against. So I'm a. I'm a skip to y' all first for your predictions. And I'm going to see who I think they're going to face off against.

Sabrina Merchant (47:23)

Isn't a championship prediction just the team that's going to win the championship? Like, I feel like you did the, the job, Cena.

Zena Cada (47:28)

Oh, okay. Yeah, I would love to not have the pressure.

Ben Pickman (47:31)

This is embarrassing. This is an embarrassing. It's embarrassing. Is it?

Zena Cada (47:34)

I don't, I don't know. I don't know. Ben, you go ahead.

Ben Pickman (47:38)

I mean, I'll go ahead here. I will name the two teams at the end of my prediction at the start of the season. I will set this up the same way you did Xena at the start of the season. I had two teams making the finals who are very familiar playing each other in the WNBA finals. And that is the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces. And it has been a roller coaster ride of a season for both of those teams. And frankly, my prediction has looked very foolish at times. There have been times throughout the regular season that I have waffled and wavered and wondered why was I so stupid to think the Las Vegas Aces could make it back back to the WNBA Finals? Why would I think that the New York Liberty, with all that they have gone through could make it back to the WNBA Finals? And guess what? We are here at the start of the postseason, middle of September, 2025 WNBA playoffs. And I have said that, no, I actually was right all along. I am predicting that the Las Vegas winner, well, the Las Vegas Aces. Let me get there. Sabrina and New York Liberty will make it back to the WNBA Finals. Las Vegas enters on a 16 game win streak. New York finally help healthy for the first time all year. 9, 0 to start the season. They have not lost when Unescu, Stewart and Jones have all started and finished a game. Those are certainly numbers that they hang on to here internally and externally in the New York market. And so I have New York and Vegas meeting in the finals. But unlike my preseason prediction, here is one point I am waffling on. As you said, Sabrina, I have the Las Vegas Aces getting back to being the WNBA champions. I do think, think the season and the run that Asia Wilson is on, you know, I think what Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young can do defensively, what they figured out in terms of bringing Jewel Lloyd off the bench. I think the experience of Becky Hammond in coaching situations, not only in a, you know, what was a five game but now a seven game series, I trust her to make the proper adjustments in the proper circumstances. And no matter who is healthy for the Las Vegas Aces. We have had, we have seen them have successful success in the playoffs. And I do think at a certain point, even with New York potentially in my mind making the WNBA finals, the inconsistency, some of the habits that you know, reflected, you know, just inconsistent effort will come out, will reveal themselves again. The lulls that they had this season that might have happened in the context with injuries around them, but might not have been enforced because of injuries. Right. The turnovers, the sloppy reads defensively, like I think some of those mistakes will come out in key moments. The lack of experience together will come out. And so I like the Las Vegas Aces over the New York Liberty. I have seven games back in Las Vegas. Las Vegas with home court becoming the WNBA champions again.

Zena Cada (50:19)

Okay, Sabrina, where are you at?

Sabrina Merchant (50:22)

I'm going to stick with the links. I had the links at the start of the season. I've been likening this season to the 2017 Minnesota links basically ever since they lost in the finals in 2024 is very similar to the way they felt that they, they were jobbed of a championship in 2016 based on a referee decision. And we saw the echoes in trail Reeves reaction afterwards and the way Minnesota has come out just with a vengeance over the entire regular season. Wire to wire Best record in the wnba. Best offense, as you mentioned, best defense, best net rating. If Dijonay Carrington's shoulder were perfectly healthy, I'd feel a little bit more confident about this. I just worry a tiny bit about Minnesota's perimeter depth, especially since Carly Samuelson is out for the season and then they ended up trading her. But I just think the Lynx, you know, regular season success is the best predictor of postseason success in the wnba. In seven of the last eight years, the number one seed has gone on to win the WNBA title. And this is a really good Minnesota team. They have a player who's good enough to be the best player on a championship team and if he's a Collier, they have a coach who's done this four times before in Sheryl Reeve. Minnesota looking to become the first five time champion in WNBA history. And I think just the arc of the season suggests that Minnesota is going to end up with the title. They obviously have a tough path, you know, facing either Phoenix or New York in the second round and then one of Vegas, Atlanta, you know, whoever emerges from that side of the bracket in the finals, if they end up getting there, I think the home court is going to matter. Target center is an awesome crowd to watch playoff games at and they obviously Supported their team incredibly well during the 2024 postseason and have historically. Yeah, I just. I like Minnesota's overall depth. I think they're a little bit more equipped to withstand any Knicks to Atlanta Smith because of Jessica shepherd and Maria Klindikova and what they've been able to do over the course of this season. As I mentioned, the perimeter depth a little waffly, but let's assume Carrington's shoulder is okay and they can handle that. I tend to believe that they've just been precautionary with her over the last couple weeks of the season. But, yeah, I think I like consistency and this is a team that has been good all year and knows how to pick themselves up when things go poorly. Yeah. And I think I picked them against the Fever to start the season. That is still technically possible. I don't believe it's going to happen during the wnba. So, yeah, let's just say links over Aces. We'll take it in six. Yeah.

Zena Cada (52:36)

Yeah. I think the Aces are also going to be the matchup. And I'm going to say this. I liken the Minnesota you talked about, you know, the 2017 season. I believe you're looking at that, you know, mainly from a basketball perspective. And I also liken them to the 2022 aces in that they've. They've got this drama around them that is motivating them and they also have this team camaraderie, this connectivity that is really hard to replicate. And I think that they. They've got this familiarity with each other. And I'm gonna say just watching the way in which they cheer for each other, and I know that that's not like a basketball statistic you can look towards, but the way that they cheer for each other, the way that they rock with each other, it's moments and things like that that in moments where you have to figure out who's gonna shoot this book ball, who's going to, you know, be the person that's going to get the ball in their hands at the end of this play. And we're going to do everything in our power to ensure they get the best shot possible. Like, you want that team camaraderie. And I think that the Minnesota Links beat everyone else in this league with it. Even with the Aces having this unbelievable run, it's been consistent for Minnesota that they've played like this throughout this season. They've gone through not having a Fisa Collier available to them and still being able to find wins. They've already been tested mid season. And now this is gonna be the ultimate test. But all right, we're going links. Two of us. Ben, you're going aces. I don't like, I don't mind that. I actually like the way that we've landed on that. So I want to hear what you guys think, though. All of you listening. Let us know what you think about our predictions. Let us know what you think of our reasoning, even. We'd love to hear what you guys have to say. That is all we've got for you guys today. We'll be back on Tuesday with more stuff, sleep and takeaways from all the games over the course of the weekend, plus some bigger thoughts about how the playoffs are going to play out for fans around the wnba. Wherever you're listening, please follow our show and if you're watching on YouTube, do your job. Please subscribe. Tell your friends, tell your mama, tell your coworker to check us out. Also, I wanted to shout out everyone and everyone that, like, listens to us, especially with their kids on the way to school. I think that's really cool. You guys are just fueling the next generation. I think that's really special. So we appreciate when you guys send those notes and let us know that the kitties are also loving the W. And while you're at it, give us a rating. Drop us a comment. It will make sure that the universe gets us to the right people that want to hear us as well. The universe being like, I don't know, YouTube and Apple. So make sure you head on over to our partner as well. Yahoo Sports Hub for more content@sports.yahoo.com women's sports on behalf of the Athletic, Ben Pickman, Sabrina Merchant, our producers who stayed up very late to ensure that we could have a great show. I'm Zena Cater. Thanks for listening and we will see you next time. No Off Season is hosted by Zena Caida with Chantelle Jennings, Sabrina Merchant and Ben Pickman. It's produced by Tanika Burrell. Our executive producers are Andrea B. Scott and Cassius Fleming. Our theme music is by Marcus Bagala. Monica Compton is our video editor. Shannon Ryan is managing editor of women's basketball at the Athletic. Jessie Burton is our head of audio and Tim McMaster is Director of Audio Operations.

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