Ben Pickman (4:57)

For the athletic I'm Ben Pickman and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball show presented by AT&T. Welcome to the Athletic Leagues Basketball Show. It is time for the WNBA postseason. The regular season has come and gone. 40 games in the books. A lot has happened, a lot of history has been made, a lot of records have been broken and this is frankly the most exciting part of the year. And so to get everyone set to talk about the postseason and predict the champion and see how the next couple weeks are going to play out. I am joined by Sabrina Merchant, my fellow athletic staff writer, who's going to be covering the postseason with me and Chantelle Jennings and everyone else on our team for the next couple of weeks. And, Sabrina, how are you feeling? Hard to believe that the postseason is already here.

Sabrina Merchant (5:57)

I mean, I feel like everyone says that, and yet I've just been waiting four months for this to happen. I want. I want all of the playoffs to just, like, get here already. Sunday is too far away.

Ben Pickman (6:07)

Sunday is too far away. And yet a lot of players this week were talking about how it is too close to the end of the regular season. But that is a conversation for another day. On this show, it's just gonna be me and Sabrina. Xena will be back on Monday, and on this show, we're just gonna be breaking down the four playoff series. Our keys to each, how we think they're gonna play out. And we're gonna spend about seven minutes on each. We're gonna go in order from one seed to four seed, make it very clear about what series we're going through, and we're just gonna break it all down, and eventually, at the end of the show, we're gonna predict a champion. Sabrina, ready to go?

Sabrina Merchant (6:39)

Let's do it.

Ben Pickman (6:40)

Great. So the first series we have is the number one seeded New York Liberty against the number eight, Atlanta Dream. New York on the year 32 and 8. Number one in offensive rating, number one in net rating, number three in defensive rating, Atlanta 15 and 25. Number nine in net rating, number 11 in offense, number six in defense. And New York won the season series three, two, one. So, Sabrina, as you look at this series, just what is your key to each series? What matchup are you looking at? What kinds of things stick out as you think about this one?

Sabrina Merchant (7:12)

Yeah. So I know you read off all those numbers for Atlanta, but I think it's a little bit more instructive just to look at what they did after the Olympic break, because that was when they really settled into this current starting lineup of Jordan, Canada, Ryan Howard, Alicia Gray, Nas Hillman, and Tina Charles, which did not play one minute together during the first half of the season, which, incidentally, is when all of New York's wins happened, was during that first half of the season. So if we look at just the second part of the season, you know, one, once they got that lineup in place, their defense jumps to fourth and their offense still. Still not great. You know, I believe they had the worst shooting percentage in the league, but their offense at least is a more reasonable eighth. So it's a slightly less imbalanced matchup than you might think just based on the 15 and 25 versus 32 and 8. But the thing that I'm looking at is how much New York can play in transition because they lead the league in fast break points per game. But Atlanta has been really good at taking care of the ball since Jordan Canada resumed control of the offense. So I just want to figure out like how much New York can push the pace they're going to be at home for those first two games. Can they get out and running or is Atlanta going to be able to restrict this more to a half court game?

Ben Pickman (8:22)

I like when, you know, we don't discuss any of our keys to a series ahead of time and then we pull similar numbers or do similar prep. And I had also noted the Atlanta Dream starting five, they've played almost 330 minutes this year and when that group plays Atlanta is 8 and 7. They have a plus 15.4 net rating. Like they're really, really good as a starting group. And we saw that most recently on Thursday night when the Atlanta Dream beat the New York Liberty in Barclays Center. Though it should be noted New York had very little actually, they had nothing to play for, quite frankly. Nevertheless, if you go look at Atlanta's next five most used five man lineups, they all have negative net ratings. And so that really begs the question for me is how does coach Tanisha Wright utilize her bench at all? Right. We know that the starting lineup, it's shown. We've just read the numbers. I read some, you read some. The starting lineup of the Atlanta Dream can hang with the New York Liberty starting lineup. They have the offensive firepower and they've played better defense, as you're saying. But it's really what are you getting from the bench? And that is a big question mark. It is a bench that has dealt with injuries this year. You know Cheyenne Parker, she's out currently with an injury. Ariel Powers out with an injury. What are you getting from Haley Jones, from Maya Caldwell, from NIA Coffey, like Leticia me, her like who is playing next for the Atlanta Dream. And that is one case for me. You go look at New York's roster, they clearly have a depth advantage here, right? They're clearly going to run, they're going to push the pace as we've seen this year and they're just going to hope to throw bodies that are talented at the Atlanta dream and tire them out and you know, hope to win the series that way because that could be a significant advantage for New York compared to Atlanta. We just don't know what they're getting out of the bench at all.

Sabrina Merchant (9:56)

Yeah, absolutely. I think this is the kind of series where you need your starters to play like 30 plus minutes each of them. Tanisha Wright's been doing this thing kind of like the old Doc Rivers from the NBA playbook where she just puts her three subs on at the same time. It's usually Nia Coffee, Maya Caldwell and Lorella Kubai, you know, over the past few weeks. And just let's see how long we can hold off with these three people playing together until we have to bring the starters back in. Not a lot of staggering with her best players, but I kind of see the point because as you mentioned, that starting lineup is really good and basically no other lineup has been working for Atlanta. So let's just see how many minutes we can squeeze out of the bench and then hope that the starters have enough juice. As you mentioned, they played on Thursday. They can just stay in New York until Sunday. There's no travel required for them so they get a little bit of rest, a little bit of recovery. Hopefully that means they can go really hard minutes wise for game one.

Ben Pickman (10:46)

I can just say they are staying in New York. They had to switch hotels. The Atlanta dream. But it was kind of a nice running joke on Thursday. Did you pack for a week? And everyone said yes, we packed for a week. You have to prepare for that. And look, I don't think they're too upset about having to stay in New York for a full week. Let's look at the Liberty side for a second because the New York Liberty are the number one seed overall in the postseason. It's a franchise that is still looking for their first ever championship having lost in the title last year to the Las Vegas Aces. New York, as we'll talk about, I think at the very end if we make some predictions, they've been great all year and yet they are not playing their best basketball entering the postseason. It's a super talented roster. Brianna Stewart again, you know, an all w first team season. Sabrina Unescu going to be first team or second team in all likelihood. And yet there's a lot of reasons for hesitation. I've talked a lot about some of those reasons on recent podcasts just to catch you up. Though they have struggled against the Minnesota Links all season long, they did not look very good. New York did in a Recent win over the Las Vegas Aces. They lost to the Connecticut sun over the last few weeks. They lost to the Atlanta Dream earlier this Thursday, even though that game had no stakes. As we're saying, the thing that I'm kind of watching for for New York is two things. John Paul Jones is the first. She has had four double doubles since the start of July, and that is just around under 20 games. She hasn't had a double double since August 22 last year. In the postseason, Jonquil Jones, who has won the WNBA mvp when she was with Connecticut, she was probably New York's both most consistent and most dominant player. She was their best player in the postseason. It was not a good postseason for Brianna Stewart, admittedly, but JJ was super, super effective at the start of this year. John Cole Jones, to me, you know, she was playing at an MVP level. She looks so much more comfortable than she did a season ago. She came in in better shape. She was passing, she was shooting the basketball really well. Effective on the defensive end. You know, there was a case to be made that JJ and I think you can still argue this, can be as dominant as any one player in the league on any given night. She has not shown that throughout the rest of this season, but she still has that potential. So I'm just curious, like in this series, what JJ are you getting? And really, you know, if I'm New York, frankly, I'm not too concerned about this series in particular. But she is obviously key number one for me. The other one, just to hit it before I hear yours, Sabrina Unescu. Right over her last 10 games, she's shooting less than 32% from the field and less than 30% from three. One of the best shooters and creators in the league. Yes, she's getting to the rim more. Yes, she has this runner that she did not have last year, but those numbers are a little bit alarming. She's coming off the Olympics, maybe a little bit of fatigue. A little bit more of a question mark than I think you would expect for someone who has been so good all year.

Sabrina Merchant (13:32)

Yeah, I mean, I hate to just agree with both of your points, but that's exactly what I was going to say. The John Quell thing. I'm glad you brought up the double double number because as we know, during the regular season, when John Cole Jones has a double double, New York is undefeated. And she started off the postseason last year with, I believe, five or six consecutive double doubles, setting a New York Liberty franchise record. So, you know, I hate to just look at one particular Box score stat and attribute that to success. But there is a pretty high correlation between Jonquil Jones's, you know, individual stats and what New York ends up doing. So for her to be this disengaged, seemingly, like you think about that game against Minnesota, New York makes its comeback in the fourth quarter with Niara Sabali at center, not with Jonquil Jones in the game. So she hasn't been super effective. She's kind of like taken herself out of games with these offensive fouls. And the advantage, I think, with New York is that their bigs are not only more talented than anybody else, you know, they also are just more versatile than anyone else. So Jonquill can play from a variety of places. Stewie can play from a variety of places, and they need both of those players to be functioning at their highest level in order for the Liberty to reach, you know, their ultimate goal. Here again, I don't think Atlanta is the team that's going to test that. But like, Tina Charles is no slouch, right? Just became the leading rebounder and second leading scorer in WNBA history. Like, she'll be able to put up some points. And John Quell needs to be able to, you know, match that and make these things more inefficient for Tina and just get herself back into the shape that she was prior to the Olympic break.

Ben Pickman (14:53)

John Qual Jones, you know, that is really the key. Sandy Brandello loves to say paint to great, good to great or good to great, paint to grade one of those two.

Sabrina Merchant (15:01)

I always paint to great. I've heard Sandy say a lot.

Ben Pickman (15:04)

She says it all the time. I should really know that. But she says that kind of phrase because. Because really, the key for New York is always to play inside out. Let's make a quick prediction here. Sabrina, what do you think? Do the Atlanta Dream have any shot to win this series or even a game here?

Sabrina Merchant (15:17)

No, I've got Liberty in two.

Ben Pickman (15:19)

Yeah, I also have Liberty in two. And we should say game one. This is the first game of the postseason. It tips on ESPN at 1pm Eastern time. Okay, let us go to the number two seed. That is the Minnesota Lynx. They are playing the number seven seed, Phoenix Mercury. Minnesota is 30 and 10 on the season. Number two in net rating, number four in offensive rating, number one in defensive rating. We'll talk about that, I'm sure. Phoenix, 19 and 21 on the year, seven in net rating, seven in offensive rating, nine in defensive rating. And Minnesota won the season series three, two, one. So, Sabrina, as you look at this matchup, two teams, a lot of talent, a very interesting matchup, an exciting couple games this year. At least one of them was just what sticks out to you about this series?

Sabrina Merchant (16:08)

I think exactly what you said. There was one exciting game when Kalia Copper hit a game winning three pointer in Phoenix against the Links to steal a win. And every other game was pretty roundly in favor of the Minnesota Links in that four game set. And frankly Phoenix from that point when they played Minnesota, they had a really nice first half of the season. You know, got some wins against Liberty, the Lynx, the Aces had as good a highs as anybody in the wnba. Since the break, the teams that they have beaten include the Dallas Wings, the Los Angeles Sparks, the Chicago sky and the Atlanta Dream. And one thing most of those teams have in common is they're not playoff teams. So it's been a rough stretch for Phoenix since the break. I don't think it's going to get any better because Becca Allen is not projected to play during this first round series. Kalia Copper is nursing a back injury that left her out for a couple games. Sophie Cunningham is a little bit of a shoulder thing. It's just a little bit of a banged up situation in Phoenix and that's not what you need against a team that I think is playing better than anybody else in the league right now.

Ben Pickman (17:07)

I mean Minnesota, we should say they have had two losses since the All Star break. Really though, if we're looking at that, that doesn't even do them justice because one of those losses came on Thursday night to the Los Angeles Sparks. And I would not recommend any fans check out that box score because really the Minnesota Links did not play. Their key players, Nafisa kali or Caleb McBride did not play. And you know, it was probably their worst game of the year and that's okay. They had nothing to play for. They had already clinched the number two seed. But for all intents and purposes, really one loss in the second half. Playing as hot and as good as anyone entering the postseason, Minnesota, like the strength of this team is their defense and they just suffocate opponents. They rotate so, so well. They scramble around the perimeter, they recover when people need recovery. They play great help side defense. They're just totally on a string. Nafisa Collier, yes, is in the defensive player of the year conversation, but their defense is so much more than one player, more than just a rim protector. Atlanta Smith is someone else who's in, you know, that kind of all defensive team conversation. I look at it like Minnesota, defensively they lock People up. I think they're number one in opponent field goal this year and then on the other end they're the best three point shooting team in the league and that has been one of the other areas of improvement. Last year they were 11th in the WNBA. This year their first are shooting around 38%. So you know, it is hard to see the Phoenix Mercury, you know, competing or pushing the Minnesota Links in this series for how well Minnesota has played. We'll have to see how Kalia Capra performs. She played in their last regular season game, but she hadn't played before that since September 7th. And even in the lead up to her going out for about two weeks, they were just two and six in the games leading up to that injury. So they weren't exactly clicking on all cylinders before she went out with an injury. Phoenix, I guess you're watching back that tape from the early first half season game winner that Kalia Capper hit frankly one of the shots of the season, of the year. One of the most exciting plays we've seen, you know, in that game. Phoenix got off to a good start. They led after the first quarter but they did need still to outscore Minnesota by seven in the fourth and they needed that kind of heroic effort by copper who scored 34 in that game on 23 shots to pull out that win. So you know, could this happen may like maybe Phoenix could steal a game if they get an unbelievable performance from Copper. Maybe Taurasi goes off again and has just, you know, a vintage Diana Taurasi performance. I think Phoenix, one of the things they're going to need is they're going to need Brittney Griner to really dominate the glass. Minnesota, you know, not exactly a great rebounding team overall, you know, their seventh overall in total rebound rate, their seventh and rebounds per game. So you know, there is an opportunity there in theory to dominate the glass if you're bg. Phoenix though probably doesn't have the roster depth either behind, you know, behind any of their kind of stars that we've mentioned to disrupt what Minnesota is doing. I assume you would agree with the assessment there.

Sabrina Merchant (20:07)

I mean I'm glad you brought up the rebounding because you know, you, you mentioned the one team that Minnesota has lost to at full strength since the break and that's the Dallas Wings. And Dallas not a playoff team. But one thing they do have just in excess is size. Consistently have two center size players on the court, whether that's Natasha Howard, Sierra McCowan, Kelani Brown, any of the group and you know, you look at Phoenix and they have Brittney Griner, so half of that is already in place. But what can they do to pair with BG to, you know, provide a little bit more interior presence? Maybe that means a lot more Monique Billings, who assigned for the rest of the season in Phoenix. She's an excellent rebounder, not huge, but like super athletic and plays I think above her height. And then maybe that means more of those Natasha Mack, Brittney Griner lineups together. Because the only way I can think of Minnesota having any difficulty against Phoenix is if they just can't get scoring in the paint. And yeah, like Minnesota is the 11th best defensive rebounding team in the league out of 12. Well, who's number 12? That's Phoenix. So it's not exactly a weakness that the Mercury are well poised to take advantage of. But I do think that you mentioned the one game that Phoenix won. Minnesota still hit 15 threes in that game. It was just a matter of they couldn't get anything going in the paint. So while I don't think it's sustainable to give up 15 threes to your opponents in a playoff game, I do think that that kind of provides a blueprint of we're going to have to give up something and maybe it's just we protect the paint as best as possible. Maybe that means not starting Sophie, starting Monique Billings in place and just going a little bit bigger, a little bit sturdier in that front line because there's just a lot of things Minnesota does well and Phoenix kind of has to just choose one thing, zone in on it and like hope that as you mentioned, Kalia Copper, Diana Tarazi just makes some magic on the other end.

Ben Pickman (21:48)

You mentioned it. You know, Phoenix, Minnesota rather is a good free throw shooting team overall. They shoot around 80% but they don't get to the line a ton. They're just ninth in free throw rate. Phoenix, interestingly is actually first overall in the WNBA and free throw rate almost 17%. So they do get to the line and that is a strength. Especially someone like Copper who gets downhill. They're going to need to get to the line and really score, you know, at the charity stripe if they want a chance to win this game. Let's just before we move on to the next series, anything you know about Diana Taurasi? I know we see if this is it. She had the big ceremony at their last regular season game in Phoenix. You know, there is a chance here that if Phoenix can win one of the first two games, then Phoenix hosts Game 3 at home. A Tarasi potential finale. The last game she might ever play or just a huge advantage because it could be the last game she ever plays at home. Does that play into this series at all in your mind?

Sabrina Merchant (22:43)

My instinct is that Diana Tarazi has played her last game in Phoenix. It seems like she's getting ready motionally to retire. I don't think she wants to go through any of this awkwardness again should she retire later on in her career. And also, I mean, we've talked about this. The Olympics seem like the one thing that kept her going, you know, even as she got into her 40s. But that's another four years away. She's not going to be playing for Team USA again. I don't see the reason to keep pushing this, you know, any further because she's had such a wonderful career and gets to go out on her own terms. But I just, I don't love this matchup for Phoenix. I don't really see how they're going to get a win in Minnesota. It'd be wonderful if they got one last game at the Footprint center, whatever it's called these days in Phoenix. But ultimately I think the end of Diana Drozi's career is going to come in Minnesota.

Ben Pickman (23:36)

I think I agree with you. I think we both have two game sweeps in this one game. One of this series is on Sunday at 5:00pm Eastern on ESPN. Okay, let us move to the number three, number six series. That is the number three Connecticut sun against the 6 seeded Indiana Fever. Connecticut 28 and 12 on the year, number three in net rating, five in offensive rating, two in defensive rating, Indiana 20 and 20 on the year, sixth in net rating, third in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating. Connecticut won this season series three, two, one. Sabrina, what sticks out to you as you start to think about this series which you know, safe to say is the most anticipated of any of the first rounders as evidenced by it being in the showcase 3pm slot on ABC on Sunday.

Sabrina Merchant (24:25)

Well, it's definitely the best chance of an offset so far of the ones we've discussed. Three one season series all of Connecticut's three wins came in May, back when Indiana was in just the roughest of stretches to begin the regular season, 2 and 9 to start the year before eventually ending up with a.500 record. The last time that they did play in August. Indiana did manage to take that game though it was at Cambridge Field House, which the first two games of the series will not be. I think it's important to note that Connecticut has probably done more to disrupt Caitlin Clark than any team other than maybe Minnesota this season. They're really aggressive on her, always putting two to the ball, trying to make her decision, making as limited as possible and forcing the rest of the Indian favor to beat them. It's an interesting strategy. I mean, I think the Fever have really figured out how to play against blizzes and traps. Like with Aaliyah. Boston making plays out of the short roll. Their shooting has just been off the charts. You look at Lexi Hull, she was, I want to say 82nd in the WNBA at the All Star break in three point percentage and she ended the season first. So just give you an indication of how many three she's made over the last 15 games. So I, I really just start there. Like what is Connecticut going to do against Clark? Are they going to let Clark try to beat them one on one? Are they going to stick to their defensive principles and trap her and make her give the ball up early? Because I think Indiana is more well suited to beat that type of defense now than they were back earlier in the season when it proved so successful.

Ben Pickman (25:48)

Yeah, it's really interesting you create the dichotomy because then and now because like if I'm a coach on the Connecticut sun staff, I wonder how much I'm really watching back that film from the first game because the Indiana Fever team, as you're saying, from that first game, so, so different. I mean that was Caitlin Clark's WNBA debut. She had a record 10 turnovers in that game. People joke that it was a double, double points turnovers game and now it's just like eight points assist game and it's like 30 points and 10 assists every single night or a lot in the second half. So she is a very different player. The whole team is a different player. We've seen Kelsey Mitchell, she is someone who has just been on a tear coming out of the All Star break. I believe for she might still be the second highest points average post all star break, nearly 25 points per game. You know, for most of the second half of this year, she has been awesome playing really at an all WNBA level, you can make a strong case that she should be there. And still if I'm the Sun, like I'm definitely picking up on how Carrington guarded Caitlin Clark because that was something that I do think for all the change in, in the Indiana Fever from then until now, like having the success of that one player who can disrupt Indiana's offense the way she did, that is something That I do expect to carry over Connecticut like they're a team. Interestingly, since the All Star break, they actually lead the WNBA in fast breakpoints. I don't think a lot of people would think that for a team that, you know, plays Bree Jones and at and you would think a team that is, you know, four out and one in the inside is that kind of team that pushes the pace that way. But they're an interesting combination of, you know, leading the league since the Ulster break and points in the paint, a second in points in the paint and leading in fast break points like they know who they are. Like that is the thing you can always say about the Connecticut Sun. They know where they want to score the basketball. We've seen them in the second half since the acquisition of Marina Mabry and what was one of the biggest trades that we've seen mid season in a long time, we've seen their three point shooting improve a little bit and their three point offense improve since acquiring her. So that is something important. If you can get Ty Harris, if you can get Mabry to knock down three pointers. We said it last postseason. It should be stated again, if those players make shots from the perimeter, Connecticut really can be trouble for anyone they play. Even more trouble than, you know, I think a lot of people expect.

Sabrina Merchant (28:04)

Absolutely. Before we get back to the serious stuff, just two other things I want to note about this matchup. Dijonay Carrington has been sporting a ring recently on social media. She's been dating Melissa Smith. You know, Dijonay plays for the Sun. Melissa Smith starts for the Indiana Fever. That's a fun little, you know, relationship on other sides of this aisle, you know, for this series and also assistant coach for the Indiana Fever. Karima Christmas Kelly, her husband Austin Kelly is an assistant coach for the Connecticut Sun. So a lot of family ties, you know, relationship ties in this series, which makes it just a little bit more interesting than the other ones on our docket on Sunday.

Ben Pickman (28:40)

Oh, and there's even more than that. I mean, this isn't relationship drama, but not drama. I should say relationship happiness actually. But we should say Stephanie White, the coach of the Connecticut sun, she played as a player, I think five seasons with the Indiana Fever. She later was an assistant for the Fever. She later was the head coach of the Fever. Brion January, one of her top assistants on the Connecticuts on staff. Bri January was a started her career with the Indiana Fever. She played nine years there. Someone who has still such a fondness for the city. I talked to her about that at the beginning of the year and she was just like speaking of how she still roots for Indiana in all instances except for when these two teams play. So that is something. Another kind of connection that is kind of amazing in this series. What do you expect just from Caitlin Clark in her postseason debut? Like, what do you. I mean, she's been awesome all year playing at a first team, all WNBA level. I think at the end of the day, just. Yeah. What are you expecting to see from her in her playoff entrant?

Sabrina Merchant (29:42)

I've been trying to figure out what the stage of the playoffs will mean for Caitlin because we saw her regular season debut and that was a big step up from college. And the lights and the attention and the defensive attention clearly affected Caitlin Clark more than we had seen previously in her college career. But, you know, this is somebody who's played on a lot of big stages. She just went to two national title games over the last two years at Iowa. It's not as if the postseason, the idea of the postseason is foreign to her. She's played in a lot of big games. She's played Connecticut four times now this regular season. There's a lot of tape to look at in terms of this particular matchup. So I don't expect it to be like a huge, oh my gosh, we're in the playoffs moment for Indiana, which maybe is silly because Indiana collectively has 19 games of playoff experience on its roster. There are four players on Connecticut who have more than 19 games of experience individually, led by Dewana Bonner, who has played 80 games in the playoffs in her WNBA career.

Ben Pickman (30:37)

And she will set, she will set the record if she plays three postseason games for most postseason games ever by any player in WNB history.

Sabrina Merchant (30:44)

Right. So maybe it is fruit like a little silly to overlook the experience factor here considering how overwhelmingly in favor it is of Connecticut. But Indiana just hasn't looked very young to me over the last 15 games. You know, Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, Leah Boston. That trio is so comfortable together. I have a hard time believing that, you know, a playoff game is going to change materially, how they are able to impact the game. So I'm going to, you know, mute the expectations for Caitlin just because Connecticut seems to really take her out of her game and focuses on taking her out of her game. I'm thinking something around the lens of 20.7 assists for Caitlin, but the turnover number is really what's going to affect things here.

Ben Pickman (31:30)

Right. I do think that is the thing to flag is, you know, for a team you mentioned it. That hasn't experienced a lot of games in the postseason. Like the notion of valuing every possession and knowing that the margins can be really, really small between winning a game and losing a game. And especially in a short series, a 2:1 series, that frankly could be the difference overall. Just a turnover here, a care pass there, a missed layup. You know, that's something that I think we still sometimes see when we watch the Indiana Fever. You know, teammates not exactly always anticipating a Clark go ahead pass. So that is something to watch for as this series begins, I guess. Sabrina, how do you see this one playing out?

Sabrina Merchant (32:09)

So I, I think Indiana is going to take game one and then I think Connecticut is going to adjust and stop playing Clark so tightly and make her beat them one on five. And I think that's going to go poorly. So I'm taking the sun in three.

Ben Pickman (32:25)

Wow. Sun in three. And we should mention, since the WNBA debuted its new playoff format, that is, I guess in the 2022 season, there has never been a higher seed. A lower seed, rather upset a higher seed. So, you know, we've seen some game threes as you're predicting in this situation, but we've never seen a lower seed pull off a win. I can see Indiana winning the series in three. I can also see it getting two, three and Connecticut advancing. I'm actually going to pick the sun in two. However, I think that I would expect Connecticut to play really well even if the crowd is, you know, pro Indiana or has a lot of Indiana fans, which I would expect from being there earlier in the year. Certainly a lot of Indiana fans showed out when they played during the regular season open. You know, I think Connecticut wins game one because they're just the better, more experienced team. Indiana plays a stronger game two. It comes down to the wire, but still Connecticut at Bree Jones. The experience there makes a difference. I think this one will also be a sweep, though that's not really a fun prediction. A lot of people might be rooting for a long run here by the Indiana Fever. Not those fans of the Connecticut sun, obviously. All right, one more first round series to get to. That is the Las Vegas Aces and the Seattle Storm. The Las Vegas Aces, the two time defending champion Las Vegas Aces, 27 and 13 on the season, fourth in net rating, second in offensive rating, fifth in defensive rating. Seattle 25 and 15, fifth and net, seventh offensive rating, fourth and defensive rating. Las Vegas won the season series three to one. They played earlier this week though. Seattle was undermanned and Las Vegas won that matchup and three, one overall, game one, we should mention 10pm Eastern on ESPN on Sunday. Sabrina, you've spent a lot of time around the Aces in recent years as they gear up for this postseason run. What are you watching for?

Sabrina Merchant (34:22)

Mostly just to see how dominant Asia Wilson continues to be. I've always thought that Ezzy Magbagor is one of the few people in the WNBA who has the physical dimensions to really challenge Asia. It's something that I think worked against Seattle, incidentally, when these two teams met in the playoffs in 2022, that they didn't use Ezzy as much as possible in that defensive matchup. But I digress. I do think that it's just fun to watch Asia be challenged. And considering everything that she has done during this regular season, you know, averaging the most points in WNBA history, collecting the most rebounds, leading the league in blocks, to have somebody facing off against her who at least has the physical profile to do some damage and who is a damn good defensive player. That's the first match I'm looking at. Just if, if Seattle can play Vegas, you know, can play Asia one on one and not get burned, then that makes things a lot easier for them up and down the roster.

Ben Pickman (35:17)

That I think is certainly one of the keys on that end of the floor. I mean, the one I'm watching on the other end is Seattle. And how does their offense look and specifically their guards of Jewel Lloyd and Skyler Diggins Smith? I mean, you know, I think so often we think about this matchup, you know, it features some of the best guards in the wnba. And those two players and Diggin Smith and Lloyd, you know, they are all WNBA caliber performers. We've seen them make those teams in the past and they're going up against Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. You know, this trio for the Las Vegas Aces who by their standards, though they played in the Olympics, did not have as good of a year as that they've had in the past. And so, you know, maybe there is opportunity there for Seattle's guards to get downhill, to create offense. We'll see what we get from Lloyd, who, you know, didn't have as good of a year as she's had in the past. You know, maybe she's able to make shots from the perimeter get hot. I think, you know, Seattle is coming in with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder, I think extra motivated and trying to psych themselves in to say that, you know, everyone is counting them out. So that is something else to watch for the Thing that I also want to flag is these are two teams and this is something I'm excited about. That don't really turn the basketball over. Las Vegas, number one in the WNBA, just 11.7 turnovers per game. Seattle number two at 13.1. You know, can Seattle, who also leads the league in forcing steals per game, force those Vegas guards into, you know, turnovers? Can they get out and run? Can they convert off of them? Or is Las Vegas, who has been there, who is experienced, who knows to value every possession, you know, or are they totally unfazed and just able to get to their spots and control pace and control the rhythm of the game the way they want? That I think is another big key when I look at the other side on this one.

Sabrina Merchant (37:00)

Yeah, I'm really intrigued just by the defensive matchups all around because rarely does Vegas go up against a team that has three players who can actually credibly guard their position. You know, Skyler, Diggins, Smith, I think one of the best point guard defenders in the league. You put her on Chelsea Gray. Gabby Williams is going to get the Jackie Young matchup. And we've seen what Gabby Williams can do defensively, you know, dating back to the Olympics and even in this brief stretch that she's been back with the Storm, Jewel Lloyd, for all of her shooting difficulties this season, has been a pretty good shooting guard defender, matchup with her and plummet. Just two really high powered guards who probably prefer the offensive end of the floor, but are going to have to do a lot of work defensively. Again, just another one that I'm really looking forward to. So to me it comes down to like, how, how is Seattle going to score efficiently, right? Like, I think that they can do enough to kind of limit Vegas, but their offense has just been such a slog this season. And when you're going up against, you know, potential defensive player of the year in Asia Wilson and a team that is really good at taking away your first options, I think this has to be a really big neck of goomike series, honestly. Like, are you going to force Las Vegas to play two bigs with, you know, Kia Stokes or Megan Gustafson next to Asia Wilson? Or are you going to make Asia guard NECA and do everything that she needs to do on offense and protect the rim and then put Alicia Clark next to her to get a little bit more spacing? Like that, to me is a really interesting fault line in the series is like how much offense Vegas can get on the floor and what Seattle can force them Into. So like NECA is the only player on Seattle that really scores like at an above average field goal percentage rate. And so if she can get going, especially like with a little from long range, I think that might force Vegas into, you know, changing up their matchups a little bit.

Ben Pickman (38:36)

That is one thing. You know, I like that you called that out because Seattle, I think, you know, obviously a trio with a ton of talent and we'll see next year when they come back and presumably this core stays together how much more cohesive they look. I think, you know, we could see them take strides forward in the way that New York has. But this year, just around 60% of their points come from two point range. You know, that's a, that's 10th in the WNBA. So we'll have to see how they get nec involved. I like the call out there. Overall, it's just a very bad three point shooting team. I mean, they shot under 30%, 29% basically from three point range this season. Like, you know, it's so cliche to say make or miss, make or miss league, make or miss game. But in a 2:1 series, like if you're a Seattle Storm fan, Jewel Lloyd just like get hot from three one game, you know, that's like that and that could be the. That's all you want. Like that frankly could be the difference between a sweep and getting it back to Seattle and suddenly playing in front of your home fans and maybe shocking a lot of people, like if they are able to make three pointers. You know, for all the call out of NECA and how she can perform on the inside as a matchup problem for the defensive matchup in terms of how they slow down Asia. The difference like very simply might be Seattle. Can you make shots from the perimeter?

Sabrina Merchant (40:03)

Yeah, I mean, this was an awesome Series back in 2022 in the WNBA semifinals. Maybe one of my favorite playoff series in recent memory. Admittedly very different team because Sue Bird.

Ben Pickman (40:12)

And Brian, very different teams. We should say.

Sabrina Merchant (40:14)

Brianna Stewart were suiting up for Seattle, but they have Skyler Diggin Smith and Neko Gumike in their places. It's not a like for like replacement, but that is a lot of talent to sub in for sue and Stewie especially, you know, a retiring sue and Vegas is almost identical. So there is, you know, at least some history of meeting up in the playoffs. Seattle beat Vegas in the finals in 2020. That's also a game, a series that featured a lot of the current Las Vegas Aces. Incidentally, Alicia Clark on the opposite side at this point. But I do like that there is some playoff history. There is a little bit of playoff enmity. You know, Skyler Diggins, Smith and Neko Gumike had to watch as all of these other players in the series ended up playing the Olympics this summer. Opportunity that wasn't afforded to them. So I just, I love when we can, like, organically build these rivalries and teams meet up again and again in the postseason. And I'm glad that this is a matchup that is surfacing again. Seattle atypically good for a five seed, right? Like, probably the best record for any team that hasn't had a home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. So I'm really excited for this matchup. I. I just want Seattle to get one hot shooting night in Las Vegas. Like how they took game one in Las Vegas of that epic semifinal series two years ago. Something akin to that. But I'm still going with aces and two. I don't know where you're landing, Ben.

Ben Pickman (41:29)

Yeah, I mean, I'm also going aces and two, but I just want to.

Sabrina Merchant (41:32)

Say series is going three for you, Ben, not one.

Ben Pickman (41:36)

I'm going. I'm going straight shock here. I mean, maybe I'm just, you know, a little bit chicken to. To pick the. The lower seed here. I don't know. Like, yeah, nothing. Nothing's sticking out. I'm going 2, 2, 2, 2, 2. And let's start. Let's get a couple days off between the semis or the first round and the semis. Can I just say, though, on Seattle, like you raised the point of Neca and Skyler NECA has not played in the WNBA postseason since, I believe, 2019.

Sabrina Merchant (42:02)

Right. Because she had a concussion and missed the playoffs in 2020 in the WNBA bubble.

Ben Pickman (42:08)

Right. And the Los Angeles Sparks were not very good in this.

Sabrina Merchant (42:10)

Have not made the playoffs since then.

Ben Pickman (42:12)

Yeah, exactly. And scholar Dickens Smith has not played in the WNBA postseason since 2021 when she was with Phoenix, you know, in those WNBA finals. So, you know, who knows? Maybe, you know, yes, they're veterans in this league, but maybe they feel re energized, you know, in this series and recognize the stakes of the moment and, you know, give everything that they can to try and upset the Las Vegas Aces.

Sabrina Merchant (42:35)

Ica not being in the playoffs since 2019, she was unaware that the format had changed, that they were still getting a single elimination game in the first round when I talked to her last week. So people on the Storm had to remind her that things have evolved since the last time Neca was in this part of the season, Sabrina, at least.

Ben Pickman (42:52)

You got to cut her a little bit of slack. She does have a lot going on from more than a vote, more than a vote to being, you know, the head of the PA to also being a basketball player and a very good one at that. So, you know, I guess we're predicting here welcome back to the postseason for those vets, but we're predicting an exit for the Seattle Storm and that Neca Gumike will have a lot more time on her hands very shortly. Really a week from today, you know, they could be out of the postseason. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Sabrina, those are our four first round matchups and obviously, you know, we'll continue to preview the second round matchups as they happen, the WNBA Finals as they happen. And you know, we'll bring you a pod on Monday reacting to all these game ones or on Tuesday rather reacting to the game ones that happen, you know, this weekend. And you know, we'll be with you the rest of the postseason. But because the postseason is yet to tip, I feel like we should also make a title prediction and say big picture how we think this is going to turn out. So you know, I guess where are you at right now in a finals prediction? Who do you think the finals matchup will be and you know, in just three and a half weeks time, who is holding up the title winning trophy?

Sabrina Merchant (44:00)

Well, first things first, I want to say that even though we both predicted chalk in the first round of the playoffs, it lends itself to truly awesome semifinal series if that's what ends up happening. Because New York and Las Vegas, we have the rivalry, we have the final series from last year. New York has gotten the better of them during the regular season. I wouldn't count on that happening during the postseason. But to have them match up in the playoffs for the second consecutive year would be super fun in a semifinal series. And then Minnesota and Connecticut, I believe there are three games this season collectively were decided by margin, about 10 points. One of them went into overtime. The Last one had three potential game winners up until Bridget Carlton's like 30 foot three pointer for the win in the game that ended up giving Minnesota the second seed and home court in a potential semifinal round. So I'm really just as much as I'm excited about this first round of the playoffs, the semifinals could just be phenomenal games if we end up getting those matchups.

Ben Pickman (44:51)

I should say, I should say my predictions of the 222 indicate I'm both excited the postseason but not expecting a lot of drama. So I think we are aligned in that. Sorry, back to you.

Sabrina Merchant (45:00)

So I'm not. I guess I should make picks on those particular rounds, but at this moment, I don't really know if I have a pick between New York and Vegas. I just know that I have Minnesota to win it all regardless of who comes out of that second semifinal.

Ben Pickman (45:14)

I love that. What do you like so much about Minnesota? I know you've talked about it, but against potentially New York or Vegas, what sticks out in that matchup to you?

Sabrina Merchant (45:21)

Well, you mentioned Sandy Brandella loves the paint to great motto. And Las Vegas is also a team that likes to get into the paint and then spray it out. That's a word that Becky Hammond uses all the time. The rim reads. Minnesota is just so good at congesting the paint and preventing teams from getting there in the first place. And that really just gums up what the Liberty and Aces are trying to do on offense. And then the way they ping the ball around offensively, they make these teams look slow. I've never seen a team make Las Vegas look slow in the way the Links did in their last two regular season wins against the Aces. So I just think their style of play is a little bit different, a little bit complicated for New York and the Aces to deal with, as we've seen during the regular season when Minnesota had a 3 and 1 record against both of them, including the Commissioners Cup. So I like the matchup, incidentally. I think the hardest thing is going to be for Minnesota to get past Connecticut, but I just, I don't know. I like the way the Links are playing. They've been the hottest team over the last 15 games and they have a player who I think is worthy of being the best player on a championship team in Napisa. Collier.

Ben Pickman (46:17)

Honestly, hard to disagree with any pieces of the case you just made and yet I'm going to lean very, very slightly at this point to the New York Liberty. Frankly, I think I make this pick with a good amount of hesitation because of how New York has looked over the last two or three weeks. I think this is a team that, you know, has been the league's best team from the start of the season to now. Not just as indicative by their record, but some of the other metrics we threw out, you know, at the top of the show. They also, I think, have the most talented roster in the league and maybe the deepest roster, right. With someone like Leone Phoebus, who could win sixth player of the year, Benajalaney Hamilton, who you know, has been an all star and an all W defender who can, you know, produce at a high level. Courtney Vandersloot, a future hall of Famer who I believe with just three assists would become the all time postseason leader in career assists passing. Sue Bird. So you go up and down the roster. Niara Sabali, over the last couple weeks, she has provided New York with as much energy as anyone else. She's someone I think a lot of teams have been impressed by and obviously she played in the Olympics too, with Germany. New York has been there also, and I do think all year long they've talked about the scars from last year, the chemistry, the cohesion, the knowledge that, okay, to win in the postseason, it's not just you need to go get out on this player, you need to rotate in this manner. It is about how you scramble. It is about second side and third side actions. It's about, you know, playing on a string and knowing all the different gaps you need to fill and being willing and relentless in filling those gaps. I think the talent also can be, I think the depth can be overwhelming. The pause is just what we said. They've, you know, they've struggled against Minnesota all year long. They did not look very good against Las Vegas. Most recently, though they did look good against Las Vegas in some of their prior matchups. If I'm New York, you know, I'm revving up for this Las Vegas second round series and I do think, you.

Sabrina Merchant (48:12)

Know, we're in for Seattle in the process, I'm sure, probably.

Ben Pickman (48:16)

But, you know, if we get that series as fans, like, that's the series everyone's been waiting for. It's two teams that are pretty open about, you know, they don't love each other. I don't think there's a lot of love lost there, though. There are a lot of mutual connections between people on those two teams. And then Minnesota, I do think New York just believes, like they just believe they are the more talented team. And I think the question for Minnesota that I have entering the postseason is, is there another level that they can reach? Right? This is a team that has played so well all season long. Their defense has been so good, they play on such a string, but like, have they hit their peak or is there another gear that they can get to? And I think that is the one thing that with New York, it's pretty clear there is another gear that they can get to. It's just a matter of can they get to that gear? Because I do Think New York's best probably beats anyone else's best on any given night. It's just, you know, in a playoff series, like, you have to play your best every single night. And it's, you know, a 2:1 series or it's a best of five. So, you know, I guess that is why I go. New York, they have the home court advantage. You know, maybe not as convincing or clear of a case as you just made, Sabrina, but, you know, I do think it's still hard to bet against them. They're the betting favorites entering the postseason for a reason. And, you know, New York has lost, has never won the WNBA championship. They're 0 and 5 when they've made finals. And so, you know, I think this is the time for them and that, you know, just a few weeks time, they will be celebrating. Did I sway you at all?

Sabrina Merchant (49:40)

No. But after agreeing on so many things over the first part of the podcast, I think it's nice to have a little bit of a difference in opinion.

Ben Pickman (49:47)

That is okay. That is okay. And look like smart minds. Not that we're the smartest minds, but minds can disagree. And the best part of this is, you know, who knows, maybe on Sunday we'll be wrong about everything we just said. That is the fun of the postseason. The other fun is that, you know, in the WNBA postseason, unlike the NBA playoffs, which is 10 weeks long, like things happen really, really fast. You know, the first round starts this Sunday, the second round starts next Sunday. Like things are gonna happen, seasons are gonna end very, very quickly. We should say goodbye to the Chicago sky, the Dallas Wings, the Los Angeles Sparks and the Washington Mystics, who made a valiant effort in trying to make the postseason, but came up just short. But the postseason is here. We'll be covering it all postseason long on this podcast, coming to you more than once a week, reacting to, you know, key moments, games, just breakdowns like this. And on theathletic.com where you can read a number of different features that we'll have rolling out to start the postseason on Sunday and Monday and throughout all of next week and over the coming weeks, we'll have takeaways, we'll have some live blogs. We'll be at a lot of these games. Chantelle Jennings, our third member of our team on the site side, she will be in Minneapolis. She's Minneapolis based, so we benefit from a little geography boost there. So I'm excited, Sabrina, for the postseason. I'm excited to see you in person. We'll reconnect again. How fun is that and anything else you want to say about this postseason.

Sabrina Merchant (51:11)

Where you're looking forward to, I think we didn't spend enough time with the major lead here, which is that the Las Vegas Aces could three peat for just the second time in WNBA history. And that's pretty cool. And so that's the main thing I have my eye on.

Ben Pickman (51:23)

And we shall see. You know, not since the Houston Comets, who you know, we'll have some more expansion talk in another show at another time. Maybe this could be the return of the Houston Comets in a couple years time. But as you mentioned it, not since those Houston Comets of the late 90s and 2000 has a team repeated Las Vegas going to try and make that history. We will see if they can get it. But you know, all the fun begins on Sunday. So for Sabrina, I am Ben. We thank you all for listening, for enjoying, for reading and enjoy the start of the WNBA postseason. The games are finally here. This is what it's all for. All the drama, all the free agency. It is all for this final run. So enjoy the playoffs everybody and we will talk to you soon.

Sabrina Merchant (52:15)

As we head into the playoffs, it's.

Ben Pickman (52:16)

Safe to assume there will be a few calls made by the refs that will be hard to accept.

Sabrina Merchant (52:21)

But you know what isn't hard to accept?

Liquid IV Advertiser (52:24)

Discover.

Ben Pickman (52:25)

Believe it or not, Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. You heard that right, 99%. So make a good call for your.

Liquid IV Advertiser (52:34)

Wallet and get discovered.

Sabrina Merchant (52:36)

Based on the February 2024 Nielsen report.

Ben Pickman (52:37)

Learn more at discover.com creditcard this podcast.

Shopify Advertiser (52:41)

Is brought to you by Aura. By the time you hear about a data breach, your information has already been exposed for months. On average, companies take 277 days to report a breach. That's nine months where hackers have access to your personal data. That's why we're thrilled to partner with Aura. Aura is an all in one digital safety solution that monitors the dark web for your phone number, email and Social Security number, sending real time alerts if your info is found. It also includes a vpn, password manager and data broker removal. To help keep you safe for a limited time. Aura is offering a 14 day free trial plus a dark web scan to check if your personal information has been leaked. All for free@aura.com safety, that's aura.com safety to sign up and protect your loved ones, that's aura.com safety terms apply. Check the site for details.

Wayfair Advertiser (53:34)

Acast Powers the World's Best Podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend.

Ben Pickman (53:42)

Remember blowing into a video game cartridge.

Wayfair Advertiser (53:45)

Or taping songs off the radio?

Sabrina Merchant (53:47)

How about Saturday morning cartoons?

Wayfair Advertiser (53:49)

Hey, AOL chat rooms.

Sabrina Merchant (53:51)

Did we just age ourselves?

Wayfair Advertiser (53:53)

Yep.

Ben Pickman (53:54)

We're Mike Fenoya and Charles McBee, two.

Wayfair Advertiser (53:56)

Comedians getting nostalgic and asking that nagging question, are we old?

Sabrina Merchant (54:01)

Relive the laughs, the cringes, and the nostalgia.

Ben Pickman (54:04)

Are we old?

Wayfair Advertiser (54:05)

Podcast right here on Acast. Acast helps creators launch, grow, and monetize their podcasts everywhere.

Sabrina Merchant (54:23)

Acast.com.