WNBA Playoff Primer – Episode Summary

Introduction

In the September 20, 2024 episode of No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show, hosts Ben Pickman and Sabrina Merchant delve into the excitement surrounding the WNBA postseason. As the regular season culminates with 40 games played, the duo provides an in-depth analysis of the first-round matchups, key players, team strategies, and their predictions for the championship. Skipping over the initial advertisements, the conversation kicks off at [04:57], focusing solely on the playoff action.

First Round Matchups

1. (1) New York Liberty vs. (8) Atlanta Dream

   Team Overview:

   • New York Liberty: 32-8, top in offensive and net ratings, third in defense.
   • Atlanta Dream: 15-25, ninth in net rating, eleventh in offense, sixth in defense.

   Key Points:

   • New York's dominance in fast break points per game contrasts with Atlanta's improved ball control post-Olympic break.
   • Sabrina highlights, “[...] how much New York can play in transition because they lead the league in fast break points per game” ([07:12]).
   • Ben adds concern over Atlanta's bench depth, noting injuries to key players like Cheyenne Parker and Ariel Powers, which may hinder their performance ([08:22]).

   Predictions:

   • Both hosts agree on a sweep, predicting the Liberty to win the series in two games. Ben states, “I'm not too concerned about this series in particular” ([10:46]).
   • Sabrina concurs, saying, “No, I've got Liberty in two” ([15:17]).

2. (2) Minnesota Lynx vs. (7) Phoenix Mercury

   Team Overview:

   • Minnesota Lynx: 30-10, second in net rating, fourth in offense, first in defense.
   • Phoenix Mercury: 19-21, seventh in net rating, seventh in offense, ninth in defense.

   Key Points:

   • Minnesota's superior defense and recent performance make them formidable opponents.
   • Sabrina points out Phoenix's injuries, including Kalia Copper’s back injury and Sophie Cunningham’s shoulder issues, which could impede their playoff run ([16:08]).
   • Ben emphasizes Minnesota’s defensive prowess, highlighting their ability to “rotates so, so well” ([17:07]).

   Predictions:

   • Both predict a series sweep favoring Minnesota. Sabrina states, “I'm taking the sun in three” ([32:25]), while Ben also aligns with the sweep, acknowledging Minnesota’s consistent performance ([41:29]).

3. (3) Connecticut Sun vs. (6) Indiana Fever

   Team Overview:

   • Connecticut Sun: 28-12, third in net rating, fifth in offense, second in defense.
   • Indiana Fever: 20-20, sixth in net rating, third in offense, eleventh in defense.

   Key Points:

   • The matchup is highlighted as the most anticipated first-round series, scheduled for a prime 3 PM slot on ABC ([24:25]).
   • Sabrina discusses Indiana’s adjustment to Connecticut's aggressive defense, focusing on Caitlin Clark. She notes, “[...] Connecticut has probably done more to disrupt Caitlin Clark than any team other than maybe Minnesota this season” ([24:25]).
   • Ben emphasizes the importance of experience and Connecticut’s strategic gameplay, mentioning, “What you have to play your best every single night” ([32:09]).

   Predictions:

   • Sabrina forecasts a Connecticut sweep, predicting the Sun to win the series in three games ([32:25]).
   • Ben echoes a similar sentiment, acknowledging the Sun's depth and talent, despite some hesitations about their recent performance against Las Vegas ([48:12]).

4. (4) Las Vegas Aces vs. (5) Seattle Storm

   Team Overview:

   • Las Vegas Aces: 27-13, fourth in net rating, second in offense, fifth in defense.
   • Seattle Storm: 25-15, fifth in net rating, seventh in offense, fourth in defense.

   Key Points:

   • Sabrina focuses on Asia Wilson's dominance and the defensive matchup against Seattle, stating, “[...] Asia Wilson continues to be. I've always thought that [...]” ([34:22]).
   • Ben highlights Seattle’s guard play and potential for turnovers, noting Seattle leads the league in forcing steals per game ([35:17]).

   Predictions:

   • Both hosts predict a sweep in favor of Las Vegas. Sabrina anticipates, “[...] I'm still going with aces and two” ([41:29]), while Ben concurs, stating, “I’m also going [aces] and two” ([41:29]).

Finals Predictions and Insights

As the discussion wraps up, both Pickman and Merchant offer their perspectives on the potential finals matchup and eventual champion.

• Sabrina Merchant: Expresses excitement for a possible New York vs. Las Vegas semifinal series but firmly believes Minnesota Lynx will emerge as champions, emphasizing their defensive strength and consistent performance. She states, “[...] I think that unit is going to reach that ultimate gear” ([45:21]).

• Ben Pickman: While praising New York's talent and depth, he agrees with the overall prediction favoring the Lynx. He elaborates on the Lynx's ability to elevate their game, saying, “I think they have another level that they can reach” ([48:12]).

Overall Champion Prediction:

• Both hosts lean towards the Minnesota Lynx winning the WNBA Championship, citing their defensive excellence and consistent form throughout the season.

Conclusion

Ben Pickman and Sabrina Merchant conclude the episode by expressing their enthusiasm for the fast-paced WNBA postseason. They highlight the streamlined nature of the playoffs, with quick transitions between rounds, and reassure listeners of ongoing coverage throughout the postseason. Sabrina adds a nod to the Las Vegas Aces' historic potential for a three-peat, marking only the second time in WNBA history such an achievement is within reach. The hosts encourage fans to stay engaged as the playoffs unfold, promising comprehensive analysis and coverage in the episodes to come.

Notable Quotes:

• Sabrina Merchant at [07:12]: “How much New York can play in transition because they lead the league in fast break points per game.”

• Ben Pickman at [08:22]: “What are you getting from the bench? And that is a big question mark.”

• Sabrina Merchant at [32:25]: “I'm taking the sun in three.”

• Ben Pickman at [45:14]: “I think this is the time for them and that, you know, just a few weeks time, they will be celebrating.”

Final Thoughts

This episode serves as a comprehensive primer for viewers anticipating the WNBA playoffs, offering strategic insights and informed predictions. By dissecting team dynamics, player performances, and potential playoff scenarios, Pickman and Merchant equip fans with the knowledge to fully engage with the thrilling postseason ahead.