No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show – Episode Summary
Episode Title: WNBA Race to the Bottom
Release Date: August 27, 2024
Hosts: Zena Keita, Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, and Ben Pickman
Guest: Sabrina Merchant
Introduction
In this episode of No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show, host Zena Keita welcomes longtime listeners and newcomers alike to delve deep into a pressing and often controversial topic in the WNBA: the "Race to the Bottom," colloquially known as tanking. Joined by Sabrina Merchant, a seasoned writer and insider in women's basketball, the hosts explore the dynamics of team strategies as the season nears its climax.
Understanding the "Race to the Bottom"
Zena Keita introduces the discussion by setting the stage for the current WNBA season, emphasizing the critical juncture teams face in deciding whether to push for a strong finish or strategically falter to secure a preferable draft position. She states:
"The topic of today's conversation is the race to the bottom, or what we like to call in sports, tanking."
[04:51]
Sabrina Merchant elaborates on the structure of the WNBA playoffs, explaining the seedings and potential matchups if the season were to conclude immediately:
"In the WNBA playoffs, eight of the 12 teams make the postseason... If we were to start the postseason today..."
[06:48]
Current Season Standings and Playoff Implications
Merchant breaks down the current standings, categorizing teams into three distinct groups:
- Top Five Teams: Striving for home-court advantage in the playoffs.
- Middle Tier: Teams like Chicago and Atlanta, still fighting to make the postseason.
- Bottom Three Teams: Wings, Mystics, and Sparks, whose chances of making the playoffs are slim, and are primarily vying for lottery seeding in the draft.
She notes the complexity of the playoff qualifications and how teams' performances since the trade deadline influence their current standings.
In-Depth Analysis of the Bottom Three Teams
Zena Keita raises questions about the apparent underperformance of the bottom three teams, considering their resources and talent pools:
"How did they get here? So I kind of want to break down these three teams and figure out a little bit more about how they got into this position versus what we've been seeing on the court."
[08:27]
Merchant responds by highlighting the lack of star talent and the strategic rebuilding approach:
"Both of them had high profile rookies coming into the season... but not a ton of star talent, you know, to really help them contend in the WNBA postseason."
[09:27]
She discusses the Washington Mystics and Los Angeles Sparks' strategies to accumulate draft picks rather than focus solely on immediate performance, particularly in light of upcoming drafts and the unique two-year combined record used in the WNBA lottery system.
Impact of Injuries on Team Performance
Zena Keita touches on how injuries have derailed the seasons of the Mystics and Sparks, questioning whether these setbacks have forced teams into a tanking strategy:
"Do you think that really factors into the outlook of a season...?"
[11:44]
Merchant concurs, stating that injuries often solidify a team's path towards rebuilding:
"The injuries just sort of clarified their position... if you didn't think you were tanking, you're probably tanking."
[11:44]
She provides examples of specific injuries, such as Satus Abali for the Wings and Cameron Brink for the Sparks, which have significantly impacted their seasons.
When and How Teams Decide to Tank
The conversation shifts to the timing and decision-making process behind tanking. Zena Keita asks:
"When do they make the decision to say, all right, let's tank this thing?"
[12:08]
Sabrina Merchant explains that the decision varies per team but often becomes evident as the season progresses and circumstances like injuries become insurmountable:
"If you didn't think you were tanking, you're probably tanking."
[12:08]
She uses the Dallas Wings as a case study, illustrating how accumulating losses and a poor defensive record make a strong finish unattainable, thereby nudging the team towards a strategic rebuild rather than pushing for immediate success.
Case Study: Indiana Fever's Strategic Tanking
Keita references the previous year's Indiana Fever to understand effective tanking:
"how would you look at that... how Indiana Fever ended up?"
[18:26]
Merchant praises Indiana's approach, highlighting their calculated losses to secure the top pick in the draft, which was crucial for their rebuilding efforts:
"I thought they did a pretty great job of tanking at the end, really, over the course of the season..."
[18:26]
She underscores the importance of long-term planning and consistency, explaining why not many teams attempt similar strategies due to the complexities of the two-year lottery system.
Top Draft Prospects and Their Impact
The discussion transitions to the upcoming draft and the standout prospects poised to change the landscape of the WNBA:
Zena Keita introduces Paige Beckers as the projected number one pick, praising her versatility and leadership:
"Whether you need her to run an offense, whether you need her to just be like an off-ball scorer, I think she just has everything in that package."
[22:14]
Merchant elaborates on Beckers' collegiate achievements and potential impact in the WNBA:
"She is atop the draft board, I think for most people... She's just a really great defensive playmaker too."
[22:14]
They also discuss other promising players like Kiki Ariafin, Nisa Morrow, Olivia Miles, and Tahina Powpow, analyzing their strengths and potential roles in their future teams.
Impact of WNBA Expansion on Draft Strategies
With the introduction of new teams, Keita and Merchant explore how expansion drafts might influence current team strategies and the overall draft landscape:
"Do you have any predictions on how the draft expansion could impact...?"
[33:48]
Merchant speculates that while an expansion draft will introduce new dynamics, the fundamental strategies around tanking and draft picks may remain largely unchanged, especially with the timing of the expansion draft relative to the regular draft.
WNBA Roundup: Highlights and Significant Events
The hosts then shift focus to notable events and updates within the WNBA:
-
CarMax Test Drive for League Pass:
- Keita mentions a partnership where fans could stream up to six games for free, though both hosts were unaware of its announcement timing.
-
Maya Moore's Jersey Retirement:
- Celebrated as one of the league's greatest players, Merchant reflects on Moore’s illustrious career and her impact both on and off the court.
-
Tina Charles Achievements:
- Merchant highlights Charles moving into second place all-time in both WNBA scoring and rebounding, discussing her consistent performance despite not having secured a championship.
-
Paralympics Wheelchair Basketball:
- Keita provides an overview of the women's wheelchair basketball scene, introducing key players like Rose Hollerman and explaining the classification system and game rules.
Conclusion
As the episode wraps up, Zena Keita encourages listeners to engage with the content, stay informed about the evolving strategies within the WNBA, and continue supporting women's basketball:
"Please keep listening, keep watching, keep learning, keep loving the game because that's the only way we're gonna keep growing it until next time."
[36:49]
Notable Quotes
-
Zena Keita:
"The topic of today's conversation is the race to the bottom, or what we like to call in sports, tanking."
[04:51] -
Sabrina Merchant:
"If you didn't think you were tanking, you're probably tanking."
[12:08] -
Zena Keita:
"Her ability to get to her spot and then elevate straight up is unbelievable."
[22:47] -
Sabrina Merchant:
"I maintain that Maya Moore is the best player I've ever seen live."
[39:57]
Key Takeaways
-
Tanking Strategies: As the WNBA season progresses, teams facing unlikely playoff berths may adopt tanking strategies to secure favorable draft positions, influencing both current performance and future team compositions.
-
Draft Dynamics: The WNBA's two-year lottery system adds complexity to draft strategies, making long-term planning essential for effective team rebuilding.
-
Player Impact: Standout players like Paige Beckers and Kiki Ariafin are poised to make significant impacts in the league, shaping their respective teams' futures.
-
Expansion Implications: The introduction of new teams may alter draft and team-building dynamics, though foundational strategies around tanking remain a significant factor.
-
League Highlights: Celebrations like Maya Moore's jersey retirement and Tina Charles' record-breaking achievements underscore the league's rich history and ongoing legacy.
For those looking to stay informed and engaged with the WNBA, this episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the current season's strategic developments, key players, and the evolving landscape of women's basketball.