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Zena Kada
There to watch them.
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Zena Kada
For the Athletic I'm Zena Kada and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball show presented by AT&T. Welcome back to another episode of the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. As you know, we're here to talk all things women's hoops. If you're a diehard fan that's been with us, rocking with us for a whole year, we're almost up on our one year mark, which is wild. If you eat, sleep and breathe hoops, you're in the right place. If you don't know anything about hoops, you're still in the right place because that's what we're here to do. Here to help you learn. We want to make sure that you feel comfortable in this space. So subscribe to this pod so you can stay up to date with us. Subscribe to the Athletic so our smart writers can keep you up to date with what's going on and give you that in depth analysis that I know you love. But today, we got another one of our writers back. As always, Sabrina Merchant. We're going to talk about something that, you know, is a little taboo to talk about. The media likes to talk about it. Teams don't necessarily like to say they're doing it. All right, the topic of today's conversation is the race to the bottom, or what we like to call in sports, tanking. Okay. We're right at the cusp of the season where this is where, you know, teams may have some decisions to make. All right? You don't know if you want to fit it out strong, you want to finish out strong, or do you want to pull back a little bit, realize that there's some opportunities ahead that you might want to take advantage of. All right, Sabrina, come on into this conversation. And before we dive deeper into the race to the bottom, let's take a step back and look at what the season looks like today. If the season were to end today, who would match up in the first round of playoffs?
Sabrina Merchant
Right. So in the WNBA playoffs, eight of the 12 teams make the postseason, and we have 1 versus 8, 2, 7, 36 and 45 playing each other in the first round in best of three series. And these are unique best of three series because the home team hosts the first two games and a potential winner take all game would be at the side of the road team. But anyway, if we were to start the postseason today, or let's assume that you're thinking about this on Monday's standings because there are three games on Monday, unlike the days we usually record.
Zena Kada
Exactly. That was a switch up. There are games today, but let's ignore those games and let's just think about it.
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, if the playoffs were to start on Monday, August 26, New York would play Chicago in the first round, Connecticut vs. Indiana, Minnesota vs. Phoenix, and Seattle would host Las Vegas. And I think if you look at the standings, there's probably like three separate buckets that you could really consider where these teams fall in at this point. I think there is the top five teams that are generally trying to get home court advantage in the first round, four of whom will actually get home court advantage in the first round. We have another four teams that are ostensibly trying to make the playoffs. You can quibble with whether Chicago falls into that, but how hard they've been playing since the trade deadline or since the Olympic break, even if the winds haven't always gone in their favor, I think suggests that the sky are still playing to make the playoffs. And then you have these bottom three teams, the Wings, the Mystics and the Sparks, where even if they are trying to make the playoffs, just the gap in the standings suggests that none of them will be making the playoffs. You know, all due respect to the Wings, so these are the three teams that are potentially just jockeying for lottery seeding at this point.
Zena Kada
So when you look at these three bottom teams, the Mystics, the Wings, the Sparks, and you've been looking at some of their games over the course of the season, maybe you've just poked your head in, maybe missed those first 12 games. I think it was maybe 15 games that the Mystics lost in a row. And then you saw some, some other games throughout the year and you're like, oh, wow. Like they, they're, they're pretty legit. They've got some, they got some size, they got some speed. You look at the Wings, they got Satus Abali back, but of course they have ar, who is a ridiculous scorer. They've beaten the Minnesota Links this season at one point. The Wings. You look at the Sparks. Derick, a Hamby MVP caliber player, Rekia Jackson as of late has been putting up unbelievable numbers as a rookie. You're looking at these three teams and you're like, are they really the bottom of the league? Like, how did they get here? So I kind of want to break down these three teams and figure out a little bit more about how they got into this position versus what we've been seeing on the court.
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. So let's start with the Sparks and the Mystics because I think they have traveled similar paths to get here. Both of them had high profile rookies coming into the season. You know, Aaliyah Edwards for Washington and then Cameron Brink and Rekia Jackson for the Sparks. But not a ton of top end talent like good veterans. You know, you've got the Dr. Hambis and like Brittany Sykes, you know, Maisha Hinz Allen on Washington side. But I would say not a ton of star talent, you know, to really help them contend in the WNBA post season. So you're looking at teams where if things go well, maybe they can make the playoffs. But really it behooves them to have a bit of a lost season and then get good positioning in the 2025 draft, which projects to be, if not as good as the 24 draft, at least another excellent draft. Because if you recall, we're talking about a college draft that is also including players who took their Covid years. So it's not just the current crop of seniors, it's also super seniors who have stayed in college for an additional year. So it's a double draft, so to speak. And if you're looking at the landscape of the wnba, you're thinking our best case scenario is getting a seven or eight seed and getting, you know, swept out of the playoffs by New York or Las Vegas. Maybe it's just better if we don't make the playoffs and position ourselves for a lottery pick. And then you're looking at Paige Beckers or Kiki or Yaffen or whoever happens to be, you know, a top of your draft board at that point. So I think Washington and Los Angeles both enter the season with that. Not necessarily objective. But hey, if things go wrong, it's not necessarily the worst thing in the world because we do need to accumulate more talent before we can reasonably contend in the future. And with Washington, they lost their first 12 games, so kind of solidified their fate there. And then with the Sparks, Cameron brink goes down 12 games into the season, and that again, sort of sets their path.
Zena Kada
And those are two teams that experienced significant injuries this season with Brittany Sykes and Shakira Austin missing several games for the Mystics early in the season. And then of course, Cam Brink going down, Azrae Stevens not being with the team to start with the Sparks early in the season. So do you think that that really factors into the outlook of a season to say whether someone's gonna pull it back a little bit or still go, you know, I don't wanna say guns ahead because I hate that term, but like, you know, like full steam ahead.
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I think with both of these situations, you know, the injuries just sort of clarified their position. It was sort of. We have an idea that this is going to be a rebuilding year. Maybe things will go well and we'll, you know, find our way to compete with like the Chicago's and Atlanta's of the world. But that's probably best case scenario. I think the injuries just really, you know, again clarified the path. Like if you didn't think you were tanking, you're probably tanking.
Zena Kada
Right, right, right, right. Yeah, that makes sense. And it's unfortunate because I really. The Sparks is probably out of the three teams here, you know, the Mystics, the Wings, the Sparks, literally even The Wings had the injury with Satus Abali not coming back until after Olympic break. But I really feel like if the Sparks had kept Cameron Brink, I'd see them in that. In a 6, 7, 8 position, which is really. It's just tough to think about how much injuries can really change the trajectory of your team. But now knowing that, knowing that these aspects of injuries and also needing time maybe to just gel as a team, like you saw, the Washington Mystics needed some. Some extended time in the beginning of the year to really figure out them. Their identity and figure out how their. Their. Their team worked. You're now here. You got 10, 11, 12 games left, depending. You know, that last. Those last four teams with the Dream Mystic, Swing, Sparks, and there is a significant gap, as you said when we started all of this, that right now, again, excluding all games on Monday, the Liberty sit at the top of the league with 25 wins, Sparks at the very bottom with six. Even if they were to win out, there's no way, like, right. There's no way that you can do anything with that. So I want to ask, from conversations you've had over the years with teams, GMs, etc. How does a team or when does a team start to realize, okay, guys, let's all just simmer down, you know, don't go so hard in the paint. There's some. Their help. Help is coming, you know, like, AKA when do they make the decision to say, all right, let's tank this thing?
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. You know, I think it varies based on the team. So let's think about the Wings for a second. The wings enter the 2024 season with the bulk of the team that had just advanced to the WNBA semifinals. And even though they got swept by the Las Vegas Aces last year in the playoffs, that was a relatively competitive series. Like, you could see the Wings reasonably think of themselves as a top four team. We take a step forward, maybe we're, you know, taking a couple games off the best teams. Maybe if we match up with the Liberty, we match up better with them. You know, that's a team that's looking to continue advancing deeper in the postseason. And then the Satu. Sablee injury happens during the off season, out of their control. Then Natasha Howard gets injured. First game of the season, Jaylen Brown gets injured. You know, who is supposed to be one of their wing depth pieces. Matty Segris gets injured during the first part of the season. Just this comedy of errors, one after the other. You know, it ends up leading to really nice hardship Stints for Monique Billings and Odyssey Sims, who have parlayed those, you know, performances into contracts with other teams. Odyssey Sims with the Sparks, Monique Billings just got a rest of the season contract with the Phoenix Mercury. But, you know, it's. Everything has gone out of their control. And you know, a team that really expected to be, you know, in that Minnesota, Seattle, like Connecticut group is completely out of the picture. And when everybody comes back healthy, as is what happened after the Olympic break, the expectation is, okay, we'll just, you know, get back to that position. Right? Like, even though we are, I mean, if we look right now, there are a good chunk of games, they're like four losses out of that last playoff spot. You know, you're thinking with 15 games left, we're much better than these other teams. We can make up that distance. Like we get to play all of these games against teams that are in our immediate vicinity. We can, you know, cobble up that difference. But just hasn't been the case for Dallas so far. And you know, they had this dramatic win against the Sparks on Sunday, the biggest fourth quarter comeback, I think in WNBA history. But yeah, it just again, the kind of game that like usually you would think like galvanizes a team into going forward, but like we're talking about them beating a Sparks team that has seemingly forgotten how to win or chosen not to win over the last few weeks based on some of the decisions that have been made in game. But for Dallas, the consideration is very different because you keep thinking like, oh, we're just a step away, we're just a step away. And at a certain point, like, I think the math just has to come into play. Where 10 games left in the season, you know, 10, 11 games to make up four games in the last column is basically impossible. Like you'd have to win out and, or not necessarily win out, but like you'd go eight and three and the teams behind you go four and seven, which is possible. But also we're talking about the team that has the worst defense in the league and hasn't really shown the capability of being that good over a consistent stretch. So it's just really tricky because it's hard to manage expectations with what is actually happening. And ultimately with a team like Dallas, I think if you just play it out like trying to win, it's not going to really make that much of a difference versus what's actually happening for the Wings.
Zena Kada
And it's so tough because you look at the rest of the games that they have, like the schedule is Brutal, folks. I mean, they played the Liberty two more times, they played Las Vegas two more times. They've got Seattle. Oh, goodness. It's, it's, it's not kind. It's definitely not kind. Yeah, usually trying to get your hopes up.
Sabrina Merchant
Strength of schedule for the worst teams looks bad because they don't get to play themselves. But even so, it feels pretty bad for Dallas right now, right?
Zena Kada
I, I feel, I feel bad for them. And the thing is, I feel like all the teams that are in that bottom half, like, they didn't make it easy to close the season, whether it's Seattle, whether it's New York, whether it's one of those teams that they have to look at and go up against. But either way, it does feel as if at some point you see teams like you mentioned make a decision and whether it's intentional or not. I feel like that Sparks game didn't feel intentional but looked intentional. It was rough to see it go down that way. But you also see Kurt Miller trying to coach out his team. That's when you feel in between the whole. Did they make a decision to tank or is this just the strength of the team? And that's where I always am. Like, the art of tanking is an art. It truly is something special. I want to ask you, when you look at last year, teams with the number one pick, Indiana Fever, if you look at their games last year, they experienced several of these loss by threes in over time and like really close losses, how would you look at that? In the, in the world of tanking, how would you look at where the Indiana Fever ended up?
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I thought they did a pretty great job of tanking at the end, really, over the course of the season, honestly, like it was, I thought they played what you would expect over the first three, three and a half quarters. Like the types of rotation that Kristi Sides was wanting to try out, trying to instill the proper habits into her young team. And then over the last five or so minutes, just plans would go awry, decisions would stop to make sense, and as you mentioned, a lot of lose from ahead or just really close losses. Just a beautiful execution, I think, of a grander plan. And it worked out, obviously, because they end up with number one pick in the WNBA draft. And for those of you who don't exactly know how the lottery system works in the wnba, it is two years of a combined record that goes into determining a lottery order. So every team that misses the playoffs this year enters the lottery. But like, let's say if you're the Dallas Wings, they had a much better record than any of these other teams in the lottery in 2023, so that gets added to their record in 2024. So even if they do miss the playoffs, they're likely to have the worst lottery odds of the four teams. So it's hard to execute. Just a one year tank like this has got to be a commitment, which is why you don't see a bunch of teams outright tank, because you can't just decide for this one year we're going to be terrible and then we're going to be rewarded for it in the lottery because usually you're going to end up with the third or fourth best lottery odds, like what happened with Seattle and Phoenix in 2023. I think they both assumed they were going to be a little bit better, but injuries and a variety of other circumstances out of their control made them pretty bad. But they couldn't eclipse this Indiana fever in terms of the lottery order because they had so many more wins banked in the previous year. And so that's why you rarely see situations like Indiana where they already had a terrible record coming into 2023 and just needed to lose a couple more games to keep that record intact. And now the Sparks in 2024, where they were one of the lower teams in the standings already in 2023 and now are trying to keep that lead, so to speak, ahead of the other teams.
Zena Kada
It's ironic, yes, but it is a lead. Technically. It's so funn. I. I'm so grateful because every single time I talk to you, I learned something new, Sabrina. And it's funny because it's things that I may know or have had a general idea, like you've told me this before, that when it comes to the lottery, it's a combined two years. But you forget about that and you forget that. And a team can't just say let's mail it in this year. If they had a phenomenal year the year before, it doesn't matter like that. You have to have consistency, see, in being terrible essentially in order to really gain when it comes to the draft and the draft lottery. Wow. Okay. That helps put things into perspective for me, especially when it comes to why the Sparks might be in the best position to potentially get another big time lottery pick. I mean, they already got Cambrink, they already got Rea Jackson, and now they might be in the front of the line to get some more talent. So let's talk about what is at stake if you are in the lead, as you mentioned, I'm putting that in air quotes in the lead at tanking in the wnba. And folks, if you thought this, this rookie class was special, folks, do I have something to tell you about this upcoming class? They are some ballers and also they feel as if they're already in the wnba. Sabrina, let's talk about some of the folks that are looking. We got guards, we got posts, we got in betweens, we got all the things. Of course, the number one projected pick is Paige Beckers. And let's talk a little bit about Paige Beckers and then some of her counterparts. What makes Paige Beckers a franchise changing player?
Sabrina Merchant
You know, what's interesting about Paige Beckers is this is the third straight year where she could have declared for the draft because of how old she is and how many years she's played in college. So we've just been talking about her as a potential draft prospect for a very long time. And here we are, 20, 25. I think this is going to be Paige's last year in college. She actually still can play another year because of this medical red shirt that she accrued while at UConn, you know, the year she missed with the torn ACL. So, you know, knock on Woods.
Zena Kada
She's given Diana Taurasi of the college level. Okay. Just playing on her last full years. All right, keep going.
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, so she is atop the draft board, I think for most people. Although there is some disagreement. We'll get into that. You know, she's an excellent lead guard. You know, she basically played point guard when she first got to UConn. Really dynamic playmaker on both ends. Has a beautiful mid range shot, really strong for her position. Last year because of all of the injuries UConn suffered in the front court, they basically had her playing power forward. So we got to see her, you know, operate from a different part of the court and she was still excellent right by the basket. I mean, I wrote about this before the Final Four last year. She was essentially more efficient in everything as a, you know, a senior than she was as a freshman when she won national player of the year. You know, even coming back from all of these injuries, even with all of the, you know, roster turnover that happened at UConn. She's just a really great defensive playmaker too. Like, has great hands as a, you know, in terms of passing lanes, steals, like just very physical at the point of attack too. Just kind of fits into all of these different roles. But like also just a winner. Right? Like made it to the final Four. Both of the times that she's played in the tournament. All three times. I'm sorry that she's played in the tournament. One trip to the national title game, you know, still searching for that elusive ring to add to her UConn resume. Probably one of the reasons why she chose to come back to school, but I think just a player who, you know, is going to fit right into whatever system you want to run for her, whether you need her to run an offense, whether you need her to just be like an off ball scorer, I think just has everything in that package. And UConn players obviously tend to do pretty well in the WNBA. Like we're looking at, you know, two of our three leading candidates for MVP this year are Brianna Stewart and Nafisa Collier from that same lineage. So I think betting on a Yukon Husky to do well tends to work out, you know, for WNBA teams.
Zena Kada
Gino Ayama has like a machine over there, all right. He knows exactly which screws to tighten, which ones to loosen to make WNBA prospects. Paige Beckers. If you didn't catch her in this last ncaa, which I think, you know, if you're not already in the women's basketball world and, you know, maybe you, you just started getting into it this year, you got a full showcase of what she's capable of. And when you talk about being physical at the point of attack, that's the number one thing, offensively at least, that Paige Beckers impresses me at. It is a matter of Paige wanting to get to a spot. It is not a matter of someone letting her get to that spot. It is a matter of. That is the spot I want to get to. I shall get to that spot. Her ability to get to her spot and then elevate straight up is unbelievable. And really, really talented player again, defensively, like you mentioned, I think what I love about her, it's just her leadership. Everyone seems to like her. And it's not just on the college level you're talking about. She went to the WNBA All Star game, folks, and you would have thought she was in the league and not only had been like, had been in the league, okay, she was sitting courtside with Flaw J from, from lsu and those two were celebrities. They were giving like Sue Bird vibes, okay? Like, absolutely. Like they'd been in the league for years. They were just giving, you know, giving their respect to the players on the court. It was amazing. Absolutely amazing. So she's got amazing vibes to her beyond the court as well, which I think is a really big factor that I think some people don't factor in as much when you're, you're a rookie coming into a team that expects you to have an impact. The pressure there is to to lead but also understand your role. Paige seems to me like someone that absolutely would naturally come in and be a leader just through how she plays but also be incredibly easy to gel with within whatever roster you put her in. Now shout out to the guards listening because yes, Paige is representing for you for that number one spot but there is a post player that may just take the number one spot depending on what the team needs. And this is the west coast standing up out of Stanford. Who is it? Sabrina?
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, that would be Kiki Ariafin who played her first three years at Stanford and will be playing her senior season at USC alongside another player we'll be talking about in future drafts, Juju Watkins. So Kiki Yuriafin had just a dynamic junior year kind of behind a lot of other Stanford posts in the rotation over her first couple years in college. You know you have the Haley Jones and Fran Beleby and Ashton Prechtel and just like a line of other players that Stanford has turned out, you know Cameron Brink obviously in recent years. So she finally gets a chance to be that go to player alongside Cam in her junior year and just absolutely shows out. She puts on an incredible performance in the NCAA tournament. You know I think 41 points against Iowa State in the second round. Just willing her team to victory after Cam has fouled out. I think a lot of GMs are just enamored with like her face up game, the fact that she's super athletic, she can blow by you by on the dribble, just has a lot of finesse but like also speed and like power to her game too. I think we've only really seen it for one year consistently which is why like I tend to rate Paige higher than I would Kiki. But obviously a long time to go until the 2025 WNBA draft so plenty of opportunity for Eriofin to raise her status on the sport. But I think already she's the number one big on most teams evaluations and has a chance to potentially be the number one player on teams evaluations based on how this season at USC goes.
Zena Kada
One of my favorite things about Kiki Erafen is go google Kiki Iriathan dunks and just see the athleticism. It's just on display folks. It's just on display. Just look that up. I am very excited to see her especially. I mean she's going from one cerebral program to another cerebral program. Right. In terms of the coaching, Tara Van de Vere and Lindsey Gottlieb now at usc, like this is going to be an offense run around juju. But now juju's got some something that's going to help her in terms of spacing. You've got attention inside that you can't deny. Right. And now juju's got some space to work outside. You know, Lindsey Gottlieb is gonna have a field day. Field day with that. And so it is very exciting to see just how much her game is going to continue to explode and get even bigger. Now, there's a bunch of different thoughts on who could be up after that. Nisa Morrow out of lsu, Olivia Miles, who we didn't get to see last year out of Notre Dame because she had a knee injury. But this is a someone that like, you want to talk about big guards, tall guards, pick and roll. Just like diva. She is it when it comes to being able to set up her pick and then be able to see the floor. I mean, unbelievable passer and getting to see her alongside finally Hannah Hidalgo. Right. Because we haven't gotten to see those two play together yet. Now going to be a sophomore at Notre Dame. So there's a lot of people in that mix of like, who could go up in the top five. What are your thoughts of other players that you're really looking to to be potentially picked up by these, you know, Mystics, wings, Sparks, whoever ends up in that, those top lottery picks.
Sabrina Merchant
Well, first I'm going to direct everyone towards the big board that I put out for the 2025 draft. That came out right after the 2024 draft. So go to Cal. Just WNBA draft, big board. I've got all of my favorites. My favorite NCAA players I should mention because, you know, one player who we might see in this draft from outside of the college basketball realm is Dominique Malanga, who is on the French team at the Olympics. A really athletic big. So somebody who you know will probably pop up in this discussion the closer we get to the draft. But she's someone you will not see on that big board. That's just college players. But in terms of, you know, college players, I have my eye on. You mentioned Olivia Miles at Notre Dame. I also really like Sonja Citron, just another big guard, good shooter, like nice 3 and D type player. I think Maddie west belt could have a future in the WNBA too. Aoka Lee at Kansas State. Like, I know the game is kind of trending against big centers, but she just is so hyper productive and it's hard to bet against a player who is that good, you know, even at that size. Tahina Powpow, another point guard, you know, who's obviously very successful at South Carolina this past year, helping lead them to a national title. You mentioned Anissa Morrow. Just ton of ton of great players that are potentially available for this draft. And I mean, before we can get there, like the college season is just gonna be dynamite. But yeah, all of these players could factor in for the Wings, the Mystics, the Sparks. And you know, just one thing that the dream, even if they do end up in the lottery, don't actually control their draft pick for the first round for this upcoming season. Which is another reason why they are trying so hard to get out of the lottery and into the playoffs. Because they get no benefit from potentially getting a lottery pick. That pick has already been sent to Washington via Dallas.
Zena Kada
Absolutely. You know, as you just talked when you throughout Tahina Powpow, I was like, wait, this is a point guard heavy class? Because I immediately thought Georgia Amore, she followed Kenny Brooks to Kentucky Raven Johnson alongside Tahina Powpow out South, one of.
Sabrina Merchant
The best defensive prospects I've ever seen.
Zena Kada
Unbelievable. Another, not necessarily point guard. I guess she'd be a two. Oh well, I mean, Az Fudd, she could potentially declare, right?
Sabrina Merchant
Yep. She is also eligible. I mean, the injuries have obviously stalled AZ's career at UConn. Teams aren't really sure, you know, what she looks like even at this point after a couple seasons just derailed by knee injuries. So a good healthy year would go a long way to helping AZ's draft stock. And she could, you know, stay another year because of that medical red shirt.
Zena Kada
I hope she does. I think everyone benefits from being able to have that extra year to get your strength up to get back into. You know, I think that when you're on the floor going through the motions, making sure that you understand, like how to meet different defenses and things of that sort, getting that done in the college level is so much better than doing it on the WNBA level, in my opinion. I think it's a lot more of an easier transition coming from the college level to the WNBA level. I see it on the men and women's side. People that had injuries and just go straight to the league and it's like it doesn't help. You don't have as many reps. You could see that in any sport, really. Again, just my personal opinion. So we'll See what AZ decides to do. Do you think that this expansion with the Valkyries will have any impact on this draft? We don't know. As of right now. We do not know what that draft expansion is going to look like. It literally can make up like the WNBA can make up any rules that they want. The last time they had an expansion draft was when the Atlanta dream joined the WNBA, which was like back in 2007.
Sabrina Merchant
2008 expansion draft was in 2008.
Zena Kada
Yeah, 2008, long time ago. So this could go a number of ways. And now you've got Kathy Engelbert, very smart, cerebral person ahead of this. She might look at that old draft expansion and be like, this is a hot mess. We want to do it differently. We want to. We want to think about it differently and completely change it up. Do you have any predictions on how the draft expansion could impact, you know, the art of tanking and potentially getting one of these top five, top 10 players?
Sabrina Merchant
Well, so just timeline wise, the expansion draft is probably going to happen in December before the WNBA draft lottery. And then, you know, the college draft obviously takes place in April after the NCAA tournament, about a month before the regular season starts. So I guess, you know, I would imagine that most teams get the opportunity to protect six players in an expansion draft. So you'll have the core of your team in place before that expansion draft. You're not going to lose anybody who is, you know, dramatically going to affect your outcome in 2025 one way or the other. So I don't think it should change planning all that much. But even if it does, like, obviously teams have a long Runway in between that expansion draft and the rest of the off season in terms of making that planning. I do think it's interesting that, you know, the NWSL just agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement that abolishes drafts. So no college draft, no expansion draft. And, you know, when Ben and I were at WNBA All Star back in Phoenix, like, we had asked a couple players just their thoughts on expansion drafting. You know, I remember Bree Jones mentioning the nwsl. Like, you know, it was very weird for them. They seem to, like, be very against the process of an expansion draft just because of the lack of agency in terms of, you know, all of a sudden another team controls your rights even though you may have signed somewhere as a free agent and now, like, that's completely out of your control. And it's not like with trades where I feel like teams generally talk with their players before a trade happens. You know, like just sort of at least give them a heads up. Whereas that doesn't generally happen in an expansion draft like an entirely different front office is, you know, making that decision. So I do think, you know, we're going to have an expansion draft this year for when the Valkyries join, but I wouldn't be surprised if the process changes even by next year when Toronto joins or potentially for the other two teams that Kathy Engelbert hopes to have join the WNBA by 2028.
Zena Kada
Go. I am very curious as to what that process. Process is going to look like, only because, one, I wasn't paying attention when it happened in 2008, so I don't really know how the expansion draft worked out. Thank you. I appreciate that. So I don't even know. I was old enough. I should have been paying attention. I was in high school. I should have known. But it was one of those things where it happened and I was like, oh, brand new team's here. Like, yay, let's move on. Now I'm, like, invested, and I want to know how these teams could potentially shake up. It's not as if tons of players will be taken from each individual team, so it won't be that drastic. But if you're a team that's had your core seven, core eight for a while, and all of a sudden one of those members is taken from you, even if they're a solid bench player and they're a solid, you know, locker room type of player, that's always tough for them to go. And then you gotta hear, you know, you hear rumblings of players who are ready to go. I won't be speculating on this podcast, folks. That's not what we're here to do. But pay attention. There might be some players that are ready to go out to the Bay Area for when the Valkyries step into the league. All right, so this has been a wonderful conversation. I feel like I've already learned so much about the art of tanking. I will be keeping my spidey senses open as I watch games to see are these decisions being made in real time.
Sabrina Merchant
If you watch the Los Angeles Sparks, you don't even really need a spidey sense sometimes for these decisions. I don't know if you were paying attention to their game against the Washington Mystics on Friday, but they closed with, I believe, Z Cook and Leah Rue over Azaria Stevens and Deor Hamby, which was. It was a choice. It was a choice.
Zena Kada
It was a. It was a choice. It was similar to the choice to take Rea Jackson out in her game.
Sabrina Merchant
Yesterday out of necessary offensive possession with seven seconds left. Why would you need Rekia Jackson who was on fire all day? Who knows?
Zena Kada
Or 16 points in the first half closed out with 25. Not in that play. Anywho, we're going to move on. All right, let's talk about our WNBA roundup. What is going on in the rest of the league or around the rest of the league? So I don't know about you guys, but I didn't know this test drive presented by carmax. All right. This was a really cool partnership that the WNBA did where CarMax sponsored the opportunity for fans to sign up for a free Test drive of WNBA League Pass. And it was from August 24th to the 26th. You got the opportunity to stream up to six games for free. And basically, you know, great opportunity. If you. If you're not sure about league pass and you're trying to figure out is this something that I want, Et cetera, et cetera. They had this mid season test drive and I didn't know about it. They literally they announced it on Friday, August 23rd and the day that we're recording this. So you're going to hear it tomorrow when it's over. And I just am very curious as to how many people actually knew this was happening. I wish there could have been more work done with the partners ion CBS whomever to promote this, but did you know about this, Sabrina?
Sabrina Merchant
That makes two of us. I was unaware of this decision.
Zena Kada
Yeah. Okay. Come on. W. Come on. We got it. I think there's a lot of people that would have loved to take advantage of that. Hopefully. Carmax, you're hearing this. It's brilliant. Brilliant idea. Try to let's do it again for the playoffs or something. Like let's. Let's do it again. Like end of season test drive something. Come on. Because a lot of people missed out on that window. That's that number two. Another thing that I would say the country missed out on. If you're a basketball fan, women's basketball fan, you definitely did not miss it out. But Maya Moore's jersey was officially retired. This is like retiring a Michael Jordan and it not being on national television. Like Maya Moore had her jersey retired. They gave her all of the shoes that she wore throughout her career. In gold, folks. In gold. It was only on league pass. But it was really special to see number 23 go up in the rafters. Seriously, a moment of history. Seriously a learning moment for those that, you know, are just learning about the wnba. I'm so happy to see that all of her highlights were just circling around on xlash, Twitter and on social media so that people could see just how ridiculous she was over the course of, like, eight seasons. Like, she was an unbelievable player. Sabrina, any thoughts on that?
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I maintain that Maya Morris, the best player I've ever seen live. You know, I never got to see Cynthia Cooper, Charlotte Swoopes. I don't really remember if I got a chance to see Lisa Liss. I don't think I saw Sparks game until after she had retired in person. So, yeah, Maya Moore, best player I've ever seen live. I remember when UConn came to Duke when I was in school there, and all the practice players told me how fun it was to get to be Maya Moore during practice. Like, all the plays they got to run for her that they didn't. The playbook opens for Maya Moore in a way that it doesn't for anybody else that they had to do on the scout team. So, yeah, just. Just a joy to watch in person, like, always having a great time on the court, and so smooth. And I. I think about that Maya Moore mural that they had in Minnesota, you know, just with her arms spread wide and, like, all the little girls who would take pictures in front of that, just, like, the possibility, just very cool that, you know, she got to have that moment that, you know, everybody from the Indiana Fever also got to experience that I know. Like, I saw the pictures of Caitlin Clark getting to watch her idols jersey get retired while people were wearing Caitlin Clark's jerseys, you know, behind her, like, just this circle of life in women's basketball. So very cool moment. I'm. Obviously, Minnesota was gonna put on an excellent show, as they have for everybody else in that dynasty. So, yeah, just a cool, cool moment.
Zena Kada
It was a good thing that they ended up beating the Fever close game, though. I mean, ended up being kind of close at the end there. I was very, very happy to see her be celebrated. I feel like a lot of people gave her a lot of crap about retiring early, and people were like, you still got it in you, right? I think that's more. That's just a selfish thing. Maya, we just love you so much. And so many people's basketball careers, love, passion, interest, excitement stems from seeing her do some really crazy things on the court and just be chill about it and still to this day, be one of the chillest about the accolades that, you know, follow her name. So shout out to Maya Mora getting her jersey retired. That was beautiful.
Sabrina Merchant
And, I mean, Jordan Came back after his jersey was retired, so it's not like it precludes anything, you know.
Zena Kada
That's true. That is true. That's true. She's like, she says she's done, but you never know. You never know.
Sabrina Merchant
There are people still kicking, you know. Tina Charles. Diana.
Zena Kada
That's what I was gonna say. I was going to say Dwana Bonner, Tina Charles, another UConn alum. I mean, Chino. You've been doing it, son. You've been doing it for a long time, sir. Tina Charles moves into second all time in WNBA scoring quietly, might I add. I know you wrote about this. How big of an accomplishment is this? She's also second in rebounding now. Second all time in scoring, second in rebounding. I want to ask, like, I feel like Tina Charles doesn't get the praise and the spotlight that other players have gotten over the years. You know, having followed her career, having, you know, talked about her from Seattle Storm to the Phoenix Mercury now, you know, still active, still playing with the dream. Like, what do you make of her game and her impact on the game?
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, well, I mean, we. We missed the two big stints of her career in New York and Connecticut, which is where she really. Yeah, that's like the bulk of. God, that's me. Yeah, we're just thinking of, you know, post prime Tina Charles here.
Zena Kada
That's true. I completely forgot that's where she started, was in the New York Liberty. She really made the New York Liberty that brand. Really? Yeah. Sorry. Sorry, Tina. My bad, girl. My bad.
Sabrina Merchant
Not. It's cool. I mean, but, you know, you look at her statistical resume, all the accolades she's collected, like the MVPs, multiple gold medals, multiple world championships, as you alluded to earlier, second in points all time, second in rebounds all time. Just like consistently in awards discussions, no matter what year you're talking about. I mean, you look at the 2010s, it's. You can count on one hand the number of players who are impacting the game more than Tina Charles. It's just, you know, as I mentioned, spent the bulk of her career with New York and Connecticut. And what do those two franchises have in common? They've never won a WNBA title and neither has Tina Charles. So when you look at the pantheon of WNBA greats, I think that's why she gets shortchanged a little bit, is because for all of the, you know, accolades on that resume, a WNBA championship is not one of them. And I know she tried with Phoenix with that super team. Obviously, that gets derailed because Brittney Griner was unlawfully detained in Russia, goes over to Seattle for the second part of the season. They lose that just tremendous semifinal series to the Las Vegas Aces en route to Las Vegas first title. So, you know, I don't know that she's still ring chasing right now like this Atlanta Dream team, God bless him. It's not, not really in that range, but I think it's cool to just watch her like be Tina Charles again and have an impact on a team, even if it's not a title contending team. Like this is a better way for her to go out on her terms than whatever happened previously in her WNBA career. And I mean, who's to say she's even retiring after this year. That's like totally baseless speculation. She could keep going. I think this is a good spot for her though in Atlanta, like with the role that Tanisha Wright has carved out for her. But yeah, like obviously one of the very great players of this generation, one of the WNBA 25 when they announced that back in 2021. And just because she's missing that like one little thing on the resume, I don't think it diminishes everything else that she accomplished in her career.
Zena Kada
Absolutely. You see her, you know, coaching players up on the court. I love Cam Brink saying in her interview with Paul George that she like handed her her ass and then like taught her about it basically, you know, Angel Reese, you've seen her, get advice from her. You just see all these young rookie post players clearly looking up to her and, and still also playing against her. And she's still one of the top scorers for the Dream on a given night. She's capable of providing those numbers and that output. And it's pretty dope to see her quietly still just be a great and a very dominant person on the court there for the Dream and for the league in general. So congratulations to her, to going to second all time. And last but not least, I want to close out about the Paralympics because we're a women's basketball show, so we talk about all types of women's basketball, including the Paralympics. Of course. The Olympics just happened. Paralympics always right beside the Olympics. And that means that there is some wheelchair basketball getting ready to get started literally this week. So first and foremost, gotta give you some lay of the land because we've seen the greatness on the Olympics. Women, you know, Team USA standing basketball and that's how they reference it, wheelchair basketball versus standing basketball and you know, winning gold consistently and just being dominant the world over for the last eight Olympics. So I wanted, I went and did some research and in the last eight Paralympic Games that the wheelchair basketball, women's wheelchair basketball has been happening. It started in 1892. The women have meddled in six of the eight Paralympic Games and they won gold in 2004, 2008 and 2016. So they're not bad either. All right, these, these women are pretty badass as well. And their Last Olympics in 2020 in Tokyo, USA got bronze. And so they are feeling a little bit like they got some, some work to make up here and some and some space to make up their. Netherlands got gold in that Olympics and then China got silver. I was trying to figure out like who's the MVP of the team and apparently it's this young woman named Rose Hollerman. She is a two time medalist. She got gold in Brazil when they had Rio de Janeiro in 2016. She got gold with that team. She is the youngest player to ever make the team USA Wheelchair basketball. She made the team in for London Olympics at the age of 12. So that's just casual. At 12 years old, she was just doing things, amazing things. And there's a lot of interesting facts about Paralympic wheelchair basketball that I did not know. I went on their website and there's so many really cool videos that you can learn about these Paralympic sports like blind football or wheelchair basketball and something I did not know. So in wheelchair basketball they use the same exact court. There are no modifications to the court, no modifications to the hoop, no modifications in any sense of that. There are the same amount of players that can be on the court, of course at a time, but there is a limitation to the amount of ability that can be represented on the court. So every Paralympic wheelchair basketball player is assigned a class based on their level of ability. So if you are someone that has a lot of physical limitation and you're more of a low volume output player, you will have a lower score. It's on a scale of 1 to 5, so you'll be like a scale of 1. If you are someone that may be outside of your wheelchair, you might be able to stand, you may be able to move slightly, but still with limitation, you might be closer to the 3.5 or 4. And someone at a 5, which typically doesn't happen, would be someone that may have some limitation, but very rarely very high volume output player. So at any given point on the court, you can only have 14 points represented. So there will be a mix of players from 1 to 5 represented on the court, you cannot have more than 14 points. Rose Hollerman is a 3.5, so she's right there about in the middle. She averaged double double in Brazil, so, like, she's killing it offensively and on the boards. If you want anyone to cheer for for this game, and there's a few rules that you guys should pay attention to when you watch it. So the travel rule is every time that a player pushes on their wheelchair, they get two pushes before they have to dribble the ball, two pushes before you have to dribble the ball, and then you obviously, you cannot double dribble. So those two rules, travel and double dribble, pretty much are the main things. It is an incredibly, incredibly physical game. I watched some highlights, y'all. It's like wheelchair rugby meets basketball. Like, it's intense and I'm really excited to watch it. The first game for Team USA is on Friday. They're going up against Germany. And then the first games in general start on Thursday. Same thing as you would see in the standing basketball Olympics games. There are groups similar. USA is in group B. Just for you guys to know, but really interesting stuff. Definitely. If you can find and watch a game, take the time to check it out. That game on Thursday is gonna be at 7:00am Pacific Time, so I'll be having an early morning to be able to catch some stuff. If I can't get up, I'm definitely watching highlights, but I. I definitely want to be up for that game. So just something to look out for in terms of the Paralympics. And of course, cheer on your countries, cheer on your teams. Paralympics are just as competitive as the Olympics, so lots to see there. Alrighty, folks, to close it out. We appreciate you all tuning in today, learning the art of tanking from Sabrina Merchant herself. Again, hit that subscribe button on the pod. Leave us comments if you have questions. If there's anything else that you want us covering and we're asking or anything like that, please let us know. We appreciate all the emails and such that we get. For now, on behalf of Sabrina, I'm zinakeda thanking you for your ear and encouraging you. Please keep listening, keep watching, keep learning, keep loving the game because that's the only way we're gonna keep, keep growing it until next time.
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Sabrina Merchant
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No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show – Episode Summary
Episode Title: WNBA Race to the Bottom
Release Date: August 27, 2024
Hosts: Zena Keita, Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, and Ben Pickman
Guest: Sabrina Merchant
In this episode of No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show, host Zena Keita welcomes longtime listeners and newcomers alike to delve deep into a pressing and often controversial topic in the WNBA: the "Race to the Bottom," colloquially known as tanking. Joined by Sabrina Merchant, a seasoned writer and insider in women's basketball, the hosts explore the dynamics of team strategies as the season nears its climax.
Zena Keita introduces the discussion by setting the stage for the current WNBA season, emphasizing the critical juncture teams face in deciding whether to push for a strong finish or strategically falter to secure a preferable draft position. She states:
"The topic of today's conversation is the race to the bottom, or what we like to call in sports, tanking."
[04:51]
Sabrina Merchant elaborates on the structure of the WNBA playoffs, explaining the seedings and potential matchups if the season were to conclude immediately:
"In the WNBA playoffs, eight of the 12 teams make the postseason... If we were to start the postseason today..."
[06:48]
Merchant breaks down the current standings, categorizing teams into three distinct groups:
She notes the complexity of the playoff qualifications and how teams' performances since the trade deadline influence their current standings.
Zena Keita raises questions about the apparent underperformance of the bottom three teams, considering their resources and talent pools:
"How did they get here? So I kind of want to break down these three teams and figure out a little bit more about how they got into this position versus what we've been seeing on the court."
[08:27]
Merchant responds by highlighting the lack of star talent and the strategic rebuilding approach:
"Both of them had high profile rookies coming into the season... but not a ton of star talent, you know, to really help them contend in the WNBA postseason."
[09:27]
She discusses the Washington Mystics and Los Angeles Sparks' strategies to accumulate draft picks rather than focus solely on immediate performance, particularly in light of upcoming drafts and the unique two-year combined record used in the WNBA lottery system.
Zena Keita touches on how injuries have derailed the seasons of the Mystics and Sparks, questioning whether these setbacks have forced teams into a tanking strategy:
"Do you think that really factors into the outlook of a season...?"
[11:44]
Merchant concurs, stating that injuries often solidify a team's path towards rebuilding:
"The injuries just sort of clarified their position... if you didn't think you were tanking, you're probably tanking."
[11:44]
She provides examples of specific injuries, such as Satus Abali for the Wings and Cameron Brink for the Sparks, which have significantly impacted their seasons.
The conversation shifts to the timing and decision-making process behind tanking. Zena Keita asks:
"When do they make the decision to say, all right, let's tank this thing?"
[12:08]
Sabrina Merchant explains that the decision varies per team but often becomes evident as the season progresses and circumstances like injuries become insurmountable:
"If you didn't think you were tanking, you're probably tanking."
[12:08]
She uses the Dallas Wings as a case study, illustrating how accumulating losses and a poor defensive record make a strong finish unattainable, thereby nudging the team towards a strategic rebuild rather than pushing for immediate success.
Keita references the previous year's Indiana Fever to understand effective tanking:
"how would you look at that... how Indiana Fever ended up?"
[18:26]
Merchant praises Indiana's approach, highlighting their calculated losses to secure the top pick in the draft, which was crucial for their rebuilding efforts:
"I thought they did a pretty great job of tanking at the end, really, over the course of the season..."
[18:26]
She underscores the importance of long-term planning and consistency, explaining why not many teams attempt similar strategies due to the complexities of the two-year lottery system.
The discussion transitions to the upcoming draft and the standout prospects poised to change the landscape of the WNBA:
Zena Keita introduces Paige Beckers as the projected number one pick, praising her versatility and leadership:
"Whether you need her to run an offense, whether you need her to just be like an off-ball scorer, I think she just has everything in that package."
[22:14]
Merchant elaborates on Beckers' collegiate achievements and potential impact in the WNBA:
"She is atop the draft board, I think for most people... She's just a really great defensive playmaker too."
[22:14]
They also discuss other promising players like Kiki Ariafin, Nisa Morrow, Olivia Miles, and Tahina Powpow, analyzing their strengths and potential roles in their future teams.
With the introduction of new teams, Keita and Merchant explore how expansion drafts might influence current team strategies and the overall draft landscape:
"Do you have any predictions on how the draft expansion could impact...?"
[33:48]
Merchant speculates that while an expansion draft will introduce new dynamics, the fundamental strategies around tanking and draft picks may remain largely unchanged, especially with the timing of the expansion draft relative to the regular draft.
The hosts then shift focus to notable events and updates within the WNBA:
CarMax Test Drive for League Pass:
Maya Moore's Jersey Retirement:
Tina Charles Achievements:
Paralympics Wheelchair Basketball:
As the episode wraps up, Zena Keita encourages listeners to engage with the content, stay informed about the evolving strategies within the WNBA, and continue supporting women's basketball:
"Please keep listening, keep watching, keep learning, keep loving the game because that's the only way we're gonna keep growing it until next time."
[36:49]
Zena Keita:
"The topic of today's conversation is the race to the bottom, or what we like to call in sports, tanking."
[04:51]
Sabrina Merchant:
"If you didn't think you were tanking, you're probably tanking."
[12:08]
Zena Keita:
"Her ability to get to her spot and then elevate straight up is unbelievable."
[22:47]
Sabrina Merchant:
"I maintain that Maya Moore is the best player I've ever seen live."
[39:57]
Tanking Strategies: As the WNBA season progresses, teams facing unlikely playoff berths may adopt tanking strategies to secure favorable draft positions, influencing both current performance and future team compositions.
Draft Dynamics: The WNBA's two-year lottery system adds complexity to draft strategies, making long-term planning essential for effective team rebuilding.
Player Impact: Standout players like Paige Beckers and Kiki Ariafin are poised to make significant impacts in the league, shaping their respective teams' futures.
Expansion Implications: The introduction of new teams may alter draft and team-building dynamics, though foundational strategies around tanking remain a significant factor.
League Highlights: Celebrations like Maya Moore's jersey retirement and Tina Charles' record-breaking achievements underscore the league's rich history and ongoing legacy.
For those looking to stay informed and engaged with the WNBA, this episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the current season's strategic developments, key players, and the evolving landscape of women's basketball.