Alexander Vindman's 'The Folly of Realism' suggests a long-term approach to Ukraine

Summary

NPR's Book of the Day: Summary of Alexander Vindman's 'The Folly of Realism'

Introduction

In the March 11, 2025 episode of NPR's Book of the Day, host Andrew Limbong introduces Alexander Vindman's latest work, The Folly of Realism: How the West Deceived Itself About Russia and Betrayed Ukraine. The podcast delves into Vindman's perspectives on the geopolitical dynamics surrounding the Ukraine conflict, offering a comprehensive analysis of Western policies and their long-term implications.

Author Background

Alexander Vindman, a retired Army Lieutenant Colonel, gained national attention in 2019 when he testified against President Trump during impeachment hearings. Serving as the former Director of European Affairs for the United States National Security Council, Vindman's insights are deeply rooted in his extensive experience in military and policy-making circles. Born in Ukraine and emigrating to the United States as a child, Vindman's personal and professional backgrounds provide a unique lens through which he examines the complexities of U.S.-Russia relations.

Key Themes and Discussions

1. Historical Missteps in U.S. Policy Toward Russia and Ukraine

   Vindman argues that the United States and its allies have consistently mismanaged their approach to Russia and Ukraine across multiple administrations. He highlights pivotal moments where different decisions could have altered the current geopolitical landscape.

   • The Orange Revolution (2004): Vindman critiques the U.S. response as overly cautious, stating, “We did very, very kid glove condemnations of Russia. We should have worn them off and invested in Ukraine, and we didn't do that” (05:10). This lack of robust support weakened Ukraine’s position early on.

   • The 2014 Crimea Seizure: He points out that the U.S. faltered in imposing stringent sanctions and providing sufficient military aid to Ukraine, leading to a more aggressive Russian stance. “We could have not done what we did, which was look to reset, but we could have avoided doing a reset and instead been quite conditional in our relationship with Russia” (05:40).

2. Critique of the Trump Administration's Approach

   Vindman expresses skepticism about the Trump administration's strategy, describing it as an extension of long-standing "Russia first" policies that aim to appease rather than confront. He notes, “I don’t think there’s any grounds for hope... Russia is not going to be satisfied with the level of appeasement that the Trump administration is offering because the Ukrainians are not willing to capitulate” (03:28).

3. The Biden Administration's Efforts and Shortcomings

   While acknowledging efforts to strengthen NATO and support Ukraine, Vindman contends that these measures were insufficient and delayed. He argues that the Biden administration fell “a day late and a dollar short” in providing the necessary support to effectively counter Russian aggression (06:52).

4. Long-Term Strategic Objectives

   Vindman emphasizes the need for a long-term approach to ensure stability and deter future aggression. He advocates for robust alliances, particularly with NATO, and sustained investment in regions like Ukraine and Taiwan that are potential targets for adversaries. “We could be focusing on making sure we have strong alliances with NATO, that our support for that collective defense treaty is ironclad” (06:17).

5. Imbalance Between Russia and Ukraine

   Analyzing the ongoing conflict, Vindman highlights the disparity in resources between Russia and Ukraine. While Russia maintains a larger population and economy, Ukraine exhibits higher morale and resilience. He states, “The Russians are making tiny incremental gains, but suffering enormous losses... the Ukrainians are feisty and fiery. They have limited human resources” (07:44).

6. Potential for Negotiated Peace

   Vindman is skeptical about the prospects of negotiation under the current circumstances. He warns that Russia may use negotiations as a tactic without genuine intent to resolve the conflict, stating, “They’re going to try to string along these negotiations... when they don’t deliver, that’s when there’s an opportunity to rebalance” (08:38).

Notable Quotes

• Vindman on Personal Commitment: “Dad, I'm sitting here today in the US Capitol talking to our elected professionals... I will be fine for telling the truth” (02:27).

• Vindman on U.S. Policy Failures: “It wasn’t just getting Ukraine wrong, it's getting Russia wrong” (05:10).

• Vindman on Future Strategy: “We need to be investing in places like Ukraine or Taiwan... that look like they could be the targets for the aggression of our adversaries” (06:42).

• Vindman on Negotiation Tactics: “Does Trump want Putin to be the winner or does he want to be the winner himself” (08:38).

Conclusions and Recommendations

Alexander Vindman's The Folly of Realism presents a critical examination of Western policies toward Russia and Ukraine, advocating for a more assertive and long-term strategic approach. He urges policymakers to learn from past mistakes, strengthen alliances, and provide unwavering support to nations like Ukraine that are pivotal in maintaining global stability. Vindman’s insights call for a shift from reactive to proactive strategies to prevent future conflicts and ensure the United States remains a dominant force against adversarial powers.

Final Thoughts

NPR's discussion with Alexander Vindman offers a deep dive into the intricacies of international relations and the ongoing war in Ukraine. By reflecting on historical policies and proposing forward-thinking solutions, Vindman's analysis serves as a crucial resource for understanding and addressing the challenges facing global geopolitics today.

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Timestamp Reference Guide:

• 02:27: Vindman addresses his personal motivations and stance during impeachment.
• 03:28: Discussion on Trump administration's approach to Russia.
• 05:10: Critique of U.S. response during the Orange Revolution.
• 05:40: Analysis of the 2014 Crimea seizure and its aftermath.
• 06:17: Recommendations for long-term strategic objectives.
• 06:42: Emphasis on investing in allies and potential target regions.
• 07:44: Examination of the imbalance between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
• 08:38: Insights on the potential and pitfalls of negotiating peace with Russia.

Transcript

[Andrew Limbong]

Hey, it's NPR's Book of the Day. I'm Andrew Limbong. It's impossible for me to predict where we will be in the day to day geopolitics of the war in Ukraine by the time you listen to this. What I say now today might not be true tomorrow or whatever time it is for you, but there's a new book out that can help us think big picture about what's going on. It's titled the Folly of How the West Deceived Itself About Russia and Betrayed Ukraine by Alexander Vindman, the retired army lieutenant colonel who testified against President Trump back in 2019. He's also the former director of European affairs for the United States National Security Council. But Vindman tells NPR's Mayor Louis Kelly that America's failures with regard to Ukraine predate President Trump and that if we want to end the war, we should be thinking about long term objectives. There's more after the break.

[Alexander Vindman]

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[Mayor Louis Kelly]

Week, as we mark three years since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. Among the many people offering up ideas for how to end that war is Alexander Vindman. Now, a little background here. Vindman was born in Ukraine, immigrated to the United States as a child. And if you recognize his name, there's a decent chance that is because of a moment back in 2019 when Vindman, by then a staffer in the Trump White House and an active duty officer in the U.S. army, testified in impeachment hearings against his commander in chief.

[Alexander Vindman]

Dad, I'm sitting here today in the US Capitol talking to our elected professionals, talking to our elected professionals is proof that you made the right decision 40 years ago to leave the Soviet Union, come here to the United States of America in search of a better life for our family. Do not worry. I will be fine for telling the truth.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

Well, Trump fired Vindman not long after that. Then Vindman retired from the army, but he has not stopped thinking about the relationship between the country for which he wore a uniform and the country where he was born. His new book is the Folly of How the West Deceived Itself About Russia and Betrayed Ukraine. Alexander Vindman, welcome.

[Alexander Vindman]

Thank you for having me back.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

So the last time you and I spoke was three years ago. It was actually right before Russia invaded. Let's start with the case for hope. Do you find grounds for hope that this year, that 2025 may be the year this war ends?

[Alexander Vindman]

I don't think so. Not under the approach that the Trump administration is taking. It's an approach that looks to appease Russia in the tradition of 30 plus years of Russia first policy. And it's one where, frankly, Russia is not going to be satisfied with the level of appeasement that the Trump administration is offering because the Ukrainians are not willing to capitulate. The prospects look dimmer now than they did before Trump took office.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

I mentioned your own history, that Trump fired you, that he had you marched out of his White House just for people listening and wondering if you have an ax to grind. Do you?

[Alexander Vindman]

I've always been focused on US national security. If you paid attention to any of my testimony back then or any of the commentary, it's not been about Ukraine. It's not really even been about Trump. I have no warm feelings towards him because he's a danger, in my view, to the U.S. but it's more about the professionalism that I've tried to uphold as a career military officer, as a policymaker and as an academic studying this issue.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

Well, and what's interesting is that in this latest book, you make the argument that the US and its allies have gotten Ukraine wrong since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Like across six US Presidential administrations of both parties. I'm sure there are many moments that stand out, but is there a particular one that if it had been navigated differently, might have led us to a very different outcome today?

[Alexander Vindman]

Sure. We should be clear that it wasn't just getting Ukraine wrong, it's getting Russia wrong. Consistently with regards to what we could have done to support Ukraine, There are a couple of moments that stand out, I think in the orange revolution in 2004, we did very, very kid glove condemnations of Russia. We should have worn them off and invested in Ukraine, and we didn't do that. There was another turning point in 2014 when it was clear that the Russians were graduating from hybrid warfare to outright military aggression.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

This is when they seized Crimea.

[Alexander Vindman]

Exactly right. We could have not done what we did, which was look to reset, but we could have avoided doing a reset and instead been quite conditional in our relationship with Russia, condemnatory when we needed to be imposing sanctions, helping arm Ukraine. So it looks like a harder target. That was another critical turning point.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

So fast forward to this moment now. Here we sit in 2025 with the world as it is, not as we wish it were. What counsel would you offer your successors at the White House, at the Pentagon on trying to end this war?

[Alexander Vindman]

What we should be doing is understanding that we could focus on long term objectives. We could be focusing on making sure we have strong alliances with NATO, that our support for that collective defense treaty is ironclad. We should be investing in places like Ukraine or Taiwan, other places around the world that look like they could be the targets for the aggression of our adversaries.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

I guess the pushback to that is that the Biden administration tried that, invested in the relationship with NATO, invested in Ukraine, and here we are with war still raging three years on.

[Alexander Vindman]

I would say that that's not the case. I think the fact is that the Biden administration also fell afoul of hopes and fears. It just did it in a more kind of traditional vein, the same way that preceding administrations, from George H.W. bush through Clinton, through George Bush, President Obama, all committed the same kind of Russia first mistakes. Now it looks like there's a bit of a stark contrast because Trump has taken such an extreme approach to realism that it looks like the Biden administration did more than they actually did. The fact is that they also were day late and a dollar short consistently. And providing support to Ukraine, when you.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

Argue for investing in Ukraine is part of that argument. More weapons to Ukraine. You make that case in the book.

[Alexander Vindman]

That's an essential nature of bringing the war to a close. The problem to a certain extent, is that both sides are relatively imbalanced. The Russians are making tiny incremental gains, but suffering enormous losses. They could weather some of those losses because they have a larger population, they have a larger economy, but they can't do that forever. And the Ukrainians are feisty and fiery. They've historically had higher morale, performed better on the battlefield, but they have limited human resources. And you're not going to find much of a compromise when both sides feel like they're on the cusp of winning or holding out or breaking the other side.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

Last thing, do you see any grounds for optimism in the US Russia relationship, understanding, as you've made clear that you don't agree with the way President Trump is handling it, is it better to be talking than not to be talking?

[Alexander Vindman]

I think it's a useful thing to have some conversations if those conversations are going to yield results. In this case, what needs to happen is we need to travel the road of folly for a little bit longer where the Trump administration is going to attempt to bring this war to a close, but eventually recognize that there is really no compromising with Putin. And then the question is going to be do we want Russia to be the winner or do we want the US to be the winner? Does Trump want Putin to be the winner or does he want to be the winner himself if he sees no prospect for Russia to compromise? The Russians are going to try to string along these negotiations. They're going to try to play at the fact that they're willing to end the war. But when they don't deliver, that's when there's an opportunity to rebalance and recognize that the support needs to go behind NATO, needs to go behind Ukraine if we want to bring this war to close.

[Mayor Louis Kelly]

Retired U.S. army Lt. Col. Alexander Venman. His new book is the Folly of Realism. Alexander Vindman thank you.

[Alexander Vindman]

Thank you.

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