Nudge Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Title: Real-world examples of cognitive biases
Host: Phill Agnew
Guests: Tom Bowden Green, Luann Wise
Date: February 2, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Phill Agnew invites marketing experts Tom Bowden Green and Luann Wise to discuss seven powerful cognitive biases that shape human behavior and influence marketing strategies. Drawing on research from their book "Marketing and Psychology", the guests bring each bias to life with memorable real-world examples—ranging from the Oscars to stock market blunders—demonstrating how even the best of us are susceptible to systematic thinking errors. The tone is insightful, accessible, and sometimes humorous, with plenty of practical takeaways for marketers and anyone interested in behavioral science.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Illusion of Superiority

Also known as the "above-average effect" or "illusory superiority"
Timestamps: 03:09–05:47

• People tend to overestimate their own abilities, believing themselves to be better than the average person.
• Tom recounts Vera Hurens’ research where students rated themselves higher in positive traits and lower in negative ones compared to their peers.
  • Quote [03:34]:
    “One aspect of overconfidence is feeling superior to other people, illusory superiority.” — Tom Bowden Green
• Example: Job applicants and agencies often think they are the perfect candidate, overlooking the competition.
  • Quote [04:38]:
    “We always think that... we’re the best qualified for the role. There’s no one else better out there than us.” — Luann Wise
• Public figures, especially politicians, exemplify this bias.
  • Donald Trump [05:16]: “Nobody knows more about taxes than I do... Nobody knows more about technology than me... I know more about ISIS than the generals do.”

2. Dunning-Kruger Effect

Beginners overestimating, experts underestimating their abilities
Timestamps: 05:47–08:21

• The least competent rate themselves highly, while true experts underestimate their capabilities.
• Based on Cornell research by Kruger and Dunning; effect found in tasks like logic and grammar tests.
  • Quote [07:05]:
    “Those people in the bottom 25%... were particularly bad at estimating their own ability... But... the top 25%... underestimated their own ability.” — Tom Bowden Green
• Experts, such as chess grandmaster Magnus Carlsen, are often more critical of their own performance.

3. Bias Blind Spot

The tendency to see biases in others but not oneself
Timestamps: 08:21–09:39

• Cited work by Emily Pronin: People underestimate their own bias susceptibility, even after being told about specific biases they've exhibited.
  • Quote [08:46]:
    “Even when she told those participants about the biases they were likely to have... 76% still felt that their assessment... was wrong.” — Tom Bowden Green
• Marketers and consumers often rationalize decisions after the fact, denying influence from things like social proof.

4. False Uniqueness Bias

Believing one's positive qualities and experiences are rarer than they are
Timestamps: 10:41–11:57

• People overestimate the uniqueness of their traits (“You are not a beautiful or unique snowflake” – Fight Club referenced).
• Four drivers (per John Chambers): egocentrism, selective data accessibility, focalism, group generalizations/stereotyping.
  • Quote [11:12]:
    “He reviewed the literature... and summarized four potential reasons why we might think that we’re unique.” — Tom Bowden Green
• Brands leverage this by selling “uniqueness” for premium pricing (limited editions, exclusive items).

5. Illusion of Validity

Overconfidence in one’s judgements even with weak evidence
Timestamps: 12:45–15:43

• Kahneman and Tversky’s study: Participants assessed equally predictive data but put more trust in consistent patterns.
  • Quote [12:45]:
    “People are overconfident in their ability to predict an outcome.” — Tom Bowden Green
• Stock selection and pundit predictions fall prey to this.
• Memorable real-world example: On CNBC’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer assures viewers about Bear Stearns’ stability days before its collapse.
  • Quote [15:21]:
    “Bear Stearns is fine... Don’t move your money from Bear. That’s just being silly.” — Jim Cramer

6. Pratfall Effect

Small mistakes make competent people more likable
Timestamps: 18:10–19:58

• Illustrated by Jennifer Lawrence’s fall at the Oscars, leading to an outpouring of support and a standing ovation.
  • Quote [18:13]:
    “You guys are just standing up because you feel bad that I fell. And that’s really embarrassing, but thank you.” — Jennifer Lawrence
• Aronson’s 1970s study: A high-performing candidate was more likable after a minor accident (spilling coffee).
  • Quote [19:09]:
    “The pratfall effect does show that we tend to warm to those small mistakes if they’re not critical to the competence of that person.” — Tom Bowden Green
• For the less competent, mistakes have the opposite effect.

7. Misattribution of Arousal

Attributing emotions to the wrong source
Timestamps: 21:02–22:12

• People misinterpret physiological arousal (heart rate, excitement) as being about a person or event, rather than the actual source.
  • Quote [21:02]:
    “This theory is about where people are mistaking that source of the arousal... and attributing them to the wrong cause.” — Luann Wise
• Example: Aroused male subjects rate others as more attractive after physical or emotional stimulation.
• Online relationships—people may wrongly attribute excitement in conversation to attraction.

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Opening Story (Jennifer Lawrence at the Oscars) [00:37–01:05]:
  • The crowd's reaction goes from polite to standing ovation after Lawrence’s stumble, setting up the episode’s exploration of cognitive biases.
• Fight Club reference [10:41]:
  • “You are not special. You are not a beautiful or unique snowflake.”
• Bear Stearns collapse [15:21–15:43]:
  • A vivid illustration of misplaced confidence and the illusion of validity.

Application to Marketing

Throughout, Tom and Luann emphasize how understanding these biases allows marketers to design smarter campaigns and customer experiences:

• Using “pratfall effect” in influencer marketing—flawed, relatable spokespeople can be more effective.

• Recognizing “bias blind spots” to ensure marketers don’t overlook their own assumptions.

• Leveraging “false uniqueness” and “illusion of validity” in branding and communication.

  Quote [23:07]:

  • “We’ve looked at things like a marketing funnel or a customer journey and tried to map out which theories might relate.” — Tom Bowden Green

Episode Timeline with Key Bias Discussions

• 00:37 – Jennifer Lawrence’s Oscar stumble (Pratfall Effect preview)
• 03:09 – Illusion of Superiority
• 05:47 – Dunning-Kruger Effect
• 08:21 – Bias Blind Spot
• 10:41 – False Uniqueness Bias
• 12:45 – Illusion of Validity
• 15:21 – Jim Cramer & Bear Stearns example
• 18:10 – Jennifer Lawrence addresses the audience
• 19:09 – Pratfall Effect experimental study
• 21:02 – Misattribution of Arousal

Final Thoughts

Phill, Tom, and Luann make a compelling case: we are all subject to cognitive biases, whether we realize it or not. Recognizing and understanding these patterns isn’t just a psychological curiosity—it’s a practical toolkit for marketers and communicators.

For listeners intrigued by the science, Tom and Luann’s book features over 400 theories and practical case studies, mapped to the marketing funnel and customer journey.

Links:

• Book: ["Marketing and Psychology" by Tom Bowden Green and Luann Wise]
• Phill’s weekly behavioral science newsletter
• Nudge Vaults: 484 insights for business

(For comprehensive learning, refer to the episode’s show notes for direct links.)