Nudge – “The Nudge that Persuaded Aussies to Stop Speeding”

Host: Phil Agnew
Guest: Adam Ferrier (Co-founder, Thinkerbell)
Date: December 22, 2025

Overview: Main Theme & Purpose

This episode explores how psychological biases—especially the availability bias—were harnessed in a groundbreaking road safety campaign in Victoria, Australia. Host Phil Agnew and guest Adam Ferrier unpack the logic and effectiveness behind the “Australia’s Deadliest Predator” advert, which reframed how Aussies think about the dangers of speeding. The conversation delves into the science of memorable messaging, behavioral change, and the importance of engaging audiences, offering powerful lessons for marketers and behavioral scientists alike.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Availability Bias and Public Perception

• Availability bias: People estimate the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind. We often overrate risks that are vivid (like shark attacks), and underrate more common but less dramatic dangers (like car accidents).
  • Phil (00:26): “We create a picture of the world using examples that come most easily to mind.”
  • This bias shapes public attitudes toward dangers in Australia—sharks, snakes, and spiders are considered lethal, while common threats like speeding are minimized.

2. Adam Ferrier’s Background & Approach

• Adam’s intro: Consumer psychologist, co-founder of Thinkerbell, focused on blending marketing science with creativity (“measured magic”).
  • Adam (02:09): “Thinkerbell’s purpose is to unleash measured magic into the world to keep things interesting.”
• Psychological insights fuel his campaigns.

3. The Evolution of Road Safety Campaigns in Victoria

• Victoria’s Traffic Accident Commission has a history of impactful, emotional ads—most famously the “Drunk Driving: Bloody Idiot” campaign, which used vivid hospital scenes.
  • Phil (04:23): “Road deaths dropped 37% in the 12 months following this campaign.”
• While drunk driving became socially unacceptable, low-level speeding did not; inertia and misperceived risk kept it normalized.

4. The “Australia’s Deadliest Predator” Campaign: Creative Strategy

• New campaign set out to shift perceptions, using people’s overestimation of animal dangers to highlight the overlooked risk of speeding.
  • The ad presents a suspenseful question: “What is Australia’s deadliest predator?” (06:34)
  • Reveal: Headlights of a car mimic predator eyes, flipping expectations.
• Audio-only variants used animal sounds that were revealed as actually being car crashes, further tricking listeners with their own bias.
  • Adam (07:17): “The reason why this works… we remember stuff that’s more vivid and more front of mind… So if you ask people what's dangerous, they're much more likely to say something that's vivid…”
  • Phil (08:19): “This mismatch between expectations and reality doesn’t just happen with car accidents and shark attacks…”

5. Engaging Audiences: Reactance & the Generation Effect

• Instead of ordering people not to speed, the ad asks an open question, inviting engagement and self-discovery.
  • Phil (10:25): “It doesn’t explicitly tell people not to speed. It asks them, what's Australia’s deadliest predator?”
  • Adam (10:52): “Allow them in, allow them to join the dots. And by directly asking a question, it allows them to do that also.”
  • Emphasizes “leaving room” for the consumer in the communication.
• This taps the generation effect (making people work out the answer for themselves enhances memorability).
  • Phil (13:43): “Forcing the audience to engage and think about the ad… probably made the ad more effective.”

6. Results & Behavioral Impact

• Immediate results: Post-exposure surveys showed 90% positive sentiment, with increased perception of the risks of low-level speeding.
  • Adam (15:08): “There was a 90% positive sentiment… encouraging people to consider low-level driving as being more risky than before.”
• Ultimate goal: Shift social norms, making speeding less acceptable—though hard data on behavior change wasn’t isolated.

7. Broader Lessons & Applications

• The availability bias drives misjudgment across contexts (e.g., more Americans died in car crashes after 9/11 due to fear of flying—08:19).
• Generation effect in other campaigns: UK Blood Service removed “O”s from ads to stress blood type shortages; Specsavers ads use purposeful mistakes to engage viewers.

8. Entertaining Example: Derren Brown and Availability Bias

• Derren Brown’s trick (16:00): Via subtle wordplay (“bike gifts,” “handlebar,” “saddle”), Brown influences Simon Pegg to want a BMX bike for his birthday, making the idea highly “available” in Pegg’s mind.
  • Phil (18:02): “By using this word, he is putting the bike to the front of his mind… because of the availability bias, he makes Simon Pegg more likely to choose it.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Phil Agnew (00:26): “There are more than twice as many words that have K in the third position than start with the letter K. So why do we all get this wrong?… It’s known as the availability bias.”
• Adam Ferrier (05:14): “One of the reasons [low-level speeding is perceived as less dangerous] is people just don’t think it’s that dangerous… They’ll overrate [animal dangers] as being much more likely… than being involved in a fatality with a car.”
• Adam Ferrier (07:17): “We remember stuff that’s more vivid… if you ask people what's dangerous, they're much more likely to say something that's vivid in the mind, like a shark… When I think of something dangerous, the first thing that pops into my head is a shark or a snake… not a Commodore being driven by a person.”
• Adam Ferrier (10:52): “By directly asking a question, it allows them to do that also. We’re not necessarily straight out giving the answer… the reveal is right at the end and then they can go, ‘oh shit, yeah, okay, I get it, I see what you’ve done there.’”
• Phil Agnew (13:43): “Forcing the audience to engage and think about the ad… probably made the ad more effective.”
• Adam Ferrier (15:08): “There was a 90% positive sentiment encouraging people to consider low-level driving as being more risky than before.”
• Phil Agnew (18:02): ”By using this word he is putting the bike to the front of his mind. He is making it available…”

Important Timestamps

• 00:00 – Phil’s opening quiz about the availability bias
• 02:00 – Adam Ferrier’s intro and background
• 03:02 – History of Victoria’s road safety ads
• 05:14 – Explanation of misjudged dangers & introduction of “Australia’s Deadliest Predator”
• 06:34 – The campaign’s suspenseful predator voiceover
• 07:01 – The reveal: speeding cars as true “predator”
• 10:25 – Discussion on nudges versus explicit instructions; the importance of questions
• 13:43 – Generation effect and campaign memorability
• 15:08 – Results: attitude shift evidenced by survey
• 16:00 – Story: Derren Brown, Simon Pegg, and the availability bias in action

Conclusion

Through an in-depth conversation and illustrative examples, this episode highlights how cognitive biases can be consciously and creatively leveraged in public campaigns. The “Australia’s Deadliest Predator” initiative cleverly recast speeding as the real killer, changing perceptions by making the threat more memorable and vivid. Listeners walk away with actionable behavioral science lessons—illuminating the intersections of emotion, bias, and thoughtful marketing.