Nudge Podcast: Episode Summary

Title: Will tips from a 102-year-old marketing book work in 2025?
Host: Phil Agnew
Release Date: March 31, 2025

Introduction

In this insightful episode of Nudge, host Phil Agnew delves into the enduring relevance of Claude Hopkins' seminal work, Scientific Advertising, published in 1923. Celebrated as a cornerstone in the marketing world, the book has influenced advertising legends like David Ogilvy and contemporary marketing veterans such as Jay Abraham and Gary Hulbert. Agnew embarks on an exploration to determine whether the principles outlined in this century-old text still hold sway in the modern marketing landscape of 2025.

Enduring Principles from Scientific Advertising

1. Data-Driven Advertising and A/B Testing

Agnew highlights Hopkins' pioneering advocacy for data-driven marketing, particularly the use of A/B testing and randomized controlled trials in advertising. Hopkins emphasized the importance of collecting performance data for different ad versions and selecting the most effective one for broader deployment.

Phil Agnew [00:50]: "He was the first businessman, really to push the idea of a B testing and randomized controlled trials with advertising."

This methodology, once revolutionary in the 1920s, has become a staple in today's advertising strategies. Agnew notes that the practice is so ingrained that even the podcast's own episode title likely underwent A/B testing.

2. Irresistible Offers and Free Trials

In Scientific Advertising, Hopkins advocates for crafting offers that customers find too good to refuse. A prime example he provides is an electric sewing machine offer that allowed a free one-week trial, complete with a demonstration by a dealer. This strategy reportedly converted 90% of participants into buyers.

Phil Agnew [03:42]: "Such an offer was resistless. About nine in 10 of the trials led to sales."

Agnew connects this to modern practices, citing how software companies like Netflix and YouTube successfully employ free trials to attract and retain customers. He references a 2018 study demonstrating that free plans significantly increase consumer preference and subsequent upselling.

Phil Agnew [04:07]: "Participants are 47% more likely to pick a streaming service with a free plan over a $1 basic plan."

3. Curiosity-Inspiring Slogans

Hopkins emphasized the power of curiosity in advertising slogans to enhance memorability and engagement. Agnew illustrates this with the example of Heineken's slogan "The beer that made Milwaukee jealous," which proved significantly more memorable than more generic alternatives.

Phil Agnew [06:15]: "Just like foods shot from guns, the beer that made Milwaukee jealous stands out and is therefore more memorable."

A 1991 study corroborates Hopkins' assertion, showing that curiosity-driven slogans have a much higher recall rate compared to non-curious ones.

4. Personalization and the Endowment Effect

Another key principle discussed is the use of personalized offers to trigger the Endowment Effect—a psychological phenomenon where individuals value items more highly simply because they own them. Hopkins demonstrated this by sending personalized leather-bound books, resulting in high response rates.

Phil Agnew [07:30]: "When a man knows something belongs to him with his name on it, he will make every effort to get it, even though the thing is a trifle."

Agnew references Daniel Kahneman's work and Stuart Sutherland's studies to further validate the effectiveness of personalization in marketing today.

5. Specificity and Concreteness in Messaging

Hopkins advocated for specific and concrete claims in advertising to enhance credibility and persuasiveness. For instance, instead of stating that a drink has "lots of calories," specifying "425 calories per pint" and equating it to "six eggs worth of nutriment" makes the message more tangible and believable.

Phil Agnew [08:34]: "A specific number is more persuasive."

Modern research supports this approach. A 2006 study found that specific numerical claims in ads are perceived as more believable and accurate than rounded, vague statements. Additionally, a 2022 study by Monnier and Thomas showed that concrete terms increase consumer engagement and sales.

6. Authority through Personal Signatures

Hopkins suggested that signing advertisements lends personal authority and builds trust. Agnew cites a 2013 study where letters from a dentist's office received significantly higher response rates when signed by the dentist compared to unsigned letters.

Phil Agnew [08:36]: "Whenever possible, we introduce a personality into our ads."

This principle leverages the authority bias, where consumers are more inclined to trust and act on messages endorsed by authoritative figures.

Challenging Hopkins' Assertions

While many of Hopkins' strategies remain pertinent, Agnew critically examines certain claims that don't align with contemporary evidence.

1. The More You Tell, the More You Sell

Hopkins posited that longer, more detailed advertisements naturally lead to increased sales. Agnew challenges this notion by presenting studies that favor brevity. For example, emails with concise messages outperformed longer ones in survey response rates and fundraising efforts.

Phil Agnew [13:45]: "Only 2.7% of those who received the long email answered the survey, compared to 4.88% of those who received the short email."

This contradicts Hopkins' belief, suggesting that in many cases, succinct messaging is more effective in capturing and retaining consumer attention.

2. Negativity Doesn’t Work in Advertising

Hopkins argued that negative messaging is ineffective, advocating instead for portraying products and services in a positive light. Agnew disputes this by citing successful negative advertising campaigns, such as Corsidal's shock tactics, which significantly boosted brand growth.

Phil Agnew [16:12]: "Corsodel's shock tactic ads helped Corsodal double in size from £10 million to £21 million from 2008 to 2009."

Further supporting his argument, Agnew references studies showing that negative content often garners more attention and is more memorable than positive messaging.

Phil Agnew [17:58]: "Negativity in ads clearly works, and it looks like Hopkins got this one wrong."

3. Advertising as a Science Leading to Certainty

Hopkins envisioned a future where scientific advertising would eliminate guesswork, making marketing outcomes predictable and consistent. Agnew counters this by highlighting the continued unpredictability in marketing despite advanced data analytics.

Phil Agnew [18:36]: "Advertising is not and will never be a certain path to success."

He underscores the high failure rates of new products and businesses, emphasizing that the chaotic and irrational nature of consumer behavior defies absolute predictability.

Conclusion

Phil Agnew concludes that Scientific Advertising by Claude Hopkins remains a valuable resource, offering timeless strategies grounded in psychological principles. However, he cautions against adopting its teachings wholesale, recognizing that certain assumptions do not hold in today's dynamic marketing environment. Agnew recommends supplementing Hopkins' insights with contemporary studies and methodologies to navigate the complexities of modern advertising effectively.

Phil Agnew [20:08]: "While much of the content of this 102-year-old book is accurate, I'd hesitate before recommending you read it."

Instead, he directs listeners to his curated reading list, which emphasizes evidence-backed books from psychologists and behavioral scientists, ensuring marketers are equipped with reliable and current knowledge.

Notable Quotes

• Phil Agnew [00:00]: "Nobody should be allowed to have anything to do with advertising until he has read this book seven times. It changed the course of my life."

• Phil Agnew [03:42]: "Such an offer was resistless. About nine in 10 of the trials led to sales."

• Phil Agnew [06:15]: "Just like foods shot from guns, the beer that made Milwaukee jealous stands out and is therefore more memorable."

• Phil Agnew [07:30]: "When a man knows something belongs to him with his name on it, he will make every effort to get it, even though the thing is a trifle."

• Phil Agnew [08:34]: "A specific number is more persuasive."

• Phil Agnew [08:36]: "Whenever possible, we introduce a personality into our ads."

• Phil Agnew [13:45]: "Only 2.7% of those who received the long email answered the survey, compared to 4.88% of those who received the short email."

• Phil Agnew [16:12]: "Corsodel's shock tactic ads helped Corsodal double in size from £10 million to £21 million from 2008 to 2009."

• Phil Agnew [17:58]: "Negativity in ads clearly works, and it looks like Hopkins got this one wrong."

• Phil Agnew [18:36]: "Advertising is not and will never be a certain path to success."

• Phil Agnew [20:08]: "While much of the content of this 102-year-old book is accurate, I'd hesitate before recommending you read it."

Final Thoughts

Phil Agnew offers a balanced examination of Scientific Advertising, acknowledging its foundational contributions to modern marketing while critically assessing its limitations in today's context. This episode serves as a valuable resource for marketers seeking to blend timeless principles with contemporary strategies to enhance their advertising efficacy.

For those interested in further refining their marketing knowledge, Agnew recommends accessing his comprehensive reading list, which emphasizes scientifically-backed literature over anecdotal accounts.

Phil Agnew [20:14]: "It's so old that it's now available for free online. So do go ahead grab a copy."

Listeners are encouraged to explore these resources to stay informed and effective in the ever-evolving field of advertising.