Podcast
Oil Ground Up
Hosted by Oil Ground Up · EN
Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.
37episodes
Episodes
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Jeff Currie: Everything You Know About Oil Markets Is Wrong
1w ago01:06:36Tap to summarizeJeff Currie joins Rory Johnston on the Oil Ground Up Podcast for a wide-ranging conversation on commodity price discovery, the changing structure of energy markets, and why today's geopolitical environment is unlike anything investors have faced in decades. Together they examine the aftermath of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the disconnect between crude oil and refined product markets, and why volatility—not price direction—has become the defining feature of modern commodity investing. Jeff also shares his long-term outlook on deglobalization, energy security, electrification, and the structural forces he believes will continue to reshape global commodity markets for years to come. It's an insightful discussion that blends macroeconomics, market structure, and real-world trading experience to explain what comes next for oil and commodities.
Transcribe →The Fragile Peace Reshaping Global Oil Markets
2w ago00:58:18Tap to summarizeGregory Brew returns to the Oil Ground Up Podcast to examine the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and what it means for global energy markets. Gregory and Rory Johnston discuss the fragile status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's shifting negotiating strategy, the future of U.S. involvement in the Persian Gulf, and why shipping flows remain well below pre-war levels despite the end of active hostilities. The conversation also explores the internal dynamics of Iran's new leadership, the role of Israel in shaping the next phase of regional tensions, and why the current period may represent a long-term transition rather than a return to the old status quo. Finally, they consider what this new geopolitical reality means for oil prices, global supply chains, and the growing risk premium facing energy markets over the coming years.
Transcribe →Why Oil Tankers Still Are Not Returning to the Strait of Hormuz
Jun 2300:48:07Tap to summarizeRory Johnston welcomes maritime historian and shipping expert Dr. Sal Mercogliano to Oil Ground Up for a deep dive into the evolving Strait of Hormuz crisis and what it means for global oil markets. Together, they examine why commercial shipping ground to a halt, how tanker operators are weighing risk versus reward, and why reopening one of the world's most important energy chokepoints is far more complicated than simply declaring it open. The conversation also explores Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the challenges of clearing sea mines, crew shortages, and the logistical hurdles that could keep oil flows below pre-conflict levels for months. Sal explains why shipping—not just oil prices—holds the key to understanding the next phase of this geopolitical crisis, and why supply chains may never return to the way they were before the conflict began.
Transcribe →Bob McNally on Hormuz, Oil Prices, and the End of Energy Security Assumptions
May 2901:04:11Tap to summarizeRory Johnston welcomes legendary energy analyst Bob McNally to Oil Ground Up for a sweeping conversation on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global oil supply disruptions, and the fragile state of today’s energy markets. Bob reflects on decades of experience spanning the White House, hedge funds, and energy consulting while explaining why the closure of Hormuz represents a historic shift in how the world must think about oil security and geopolitical risk. The discussion dives deep into Iran’s leverage over global energy flows, the growing disconnect between physical oil fundamentals and financial markets, and why many traders may still be underestimating the long-term consequences of this disruption. Rory and Bob also explore what reopening Hormuz could realistically look like, why inventories and shipping flows remain critical, and how this crisis may permanently reshape investment in global hydrocarbons. From oil demand destruction and rising geopolitical premiums to the future of North American energy dominance, this episode offers one of the most comprehensive macro discussions yet on the evolving global energy landscape.
Transcribe →How Iran Weaponized the World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint
May 2201:07:32Tap to summarizeEdward Fishman joins Rory for a sweeping conversation on the evolution of modern economic warfare, the origins of U.S. sanctions strategy against Iran, and how today’s Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global energy markets in real time. Drawing from his book Choke Points, Fishman explains how sanctions, secondary sanctions, and financial pressure campaigns evolved from quiet Treasury Department diplomacy into one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools. The discussion also explores why oil prices have remained surprisingly subdued despite major supply disruptions, including the role of Trump’s public interventions, market psychology, and the growing belief that geopolitical risk no longer guarantees an oil price spike. Rory and Eddie debate whether Iran has permanently changed the balance of power in the Persian Gulf by effectively institutionalizing control over the Strait of Hormuz and what that means for global trade, shipping, and future sanctions policy. The conversation revisits the Obama-era sanctions campaign, the collapse of the JCPOA, the rise of shadow fleets and sanctions evasion, and how both China and Iran have adapted to years of American economic pressure. From nuclear negotiations and frozen Iranian assets to tanker tolls, oil inventories, and the limits of American power, this episode connects decades of economic statecraft to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape investors face today.
Transcribe →Energy Stocks Are Still Cheap? Eric Nuttall Explains the Opportunity
May 701:01:46Tap to summarizeEric Nuttall joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to discuss what he believes is the largest energy supply shock in modern history following the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He explains why markets remain dangerously complacent despite massive global inventory drawdowns, rising geopolitical risks, and the potential for structurally higher oil prices well into the future. The conversation dives into why energy equities still appear deeply undervalued, how Canadian oil producers could benefit from a long-term supply crunch, and why Nuttall sees a generational opportunity emerging in the sector. Nuttall also outlines the risks investors should be watching closely, including possible U.S. export restrictions, weakening demand from higher fuel prices, and continued volatility tied to Middle East tensions. The discussion further explores the future of U.S. shale growth, Canada’s pipeline constraints, and the strategic importance of energy infrastructure in an increasingly unstable global market. From inventory math to capital flows, this episode offers a deep dive into the macro forces reshaping global oil markets and the investment landscape around them.
Transcribe →Tracking Tankers Through Chaos: Shadow Fleets, Blockades, and the New Oil War
Apr 2900:54:48Tap to summarizeMaritime intelligence expert Michelle Bockmann joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to unpack the unprecedented disruption in global oil flows following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. She explains how Iran’s shadow fleet has continued operating under the radar while broader tanker traffic has collapsed, with U.S. enforcement sharply curtailing exports and reshaping global supply routes. The conversation dives into the complexities of tracking “dark” vessels, the role of satellite intelligence, and the growing challenges posed by GPS jamming, drone warfare, and misinformation in maritime data. Bockmann also highlights the human and commercial realities behind the crisis, from stranded crews and insurance breakdowns to the difficult risk calculations facing shipowners. As oil markets grapple with dislocated supply chains, she outlines why reopening the Strait could take weeks to clear and months to normalize. The discussion further explores geopolitical ripple effects, including OPEC tensions and shifting trade flows through alternative routes like the Red Sea. Ultimately, Bockmann offers a grounded view on what to watch next, emphasizing that while the blockade is effective, uncertainty and disruption remain the defining features of today’s global oil market.
Transcribe →Amena Bakr on the Market Blindness to the 13 Million Barrel Shock
Apr 2401:05:11Tap to summarizeAmena Bakr, the Head of Middle East Research at Kpler, joins Rory to provide an inside look at the functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where daily traffic has collapsed from 170 vessels to just 5% of its pre-war levels. The sources indicate that even with an optimistic base case for normalization in August, clearing the backlog of 800+ trapped ships will likely take at least two additional months. Amena warns that the threat of maritime mines remains a strategic "wild card" that could extend the recovery timeline by up to six months. The discussion breaks down the "Iran Lane" management system and the controversial $2 million cryptocurrency tolls being reported by vessel owners seeking to bypass the blockade. With roughly 13 million barrels per day of production shut in, the discussion explores the physical damage to downstream assets and a potential five-year recovery timeline for Qatari LNG trains. Johnston and Amena address the market's underreaction to the crisis, citing the distorting effects of presidential social media posts and alleged price manipulation that has kept Brent near $100. Beyond the energy sector, the blockade is triggering a "reality check" for global supply chains, specifically impacting the helium supply necessary for semiconductors and medical imaging. Finally, the conversation highlights how OPEC is attempting to provide a "steady hand" and structural predictability while the region prepares for a post-war status quo where regional pipelines may permanently replace the Strait
Transcribe →Paper vs Physical: Inside Oil’s $30 Backwardation Shock with Veteran Trader Adi Imsirovic
Apr 1700:46:24Tap to summarizeAdi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader and former academic, returns to the podcast to break down the mechanics of the Brent market at a moment of historic disruption. With more than 13 million barrels per day of supply offline and extreme volatility across the curve, Imsirovic explains how oil pricing actually works beneath the surface—distinguishing between physical “dated” Brent and financial futures, and why the recent divergence between the two is not a market failure, but a reflection of timing, scarcity, and panic-driven demand for immediate barrels.The conversation dives into the structure of the Brent complex, including forward markets, CFDs, and the role of exchange-for-physical mechanisms that link paper and physical trading. Imsirovic argues that the record backwardation—at times reaching nearly thirty dollars between prompt and forward barrels—signals not just tightness, but outright panic in physical markets as refiners scramble to secure supply. These dynamics are further amplified by surging premiums for specific crude grades and growing dislocations between refinery margins and input costs.Finally, the discussion turns to what the futures curve is really signaling. While front-end prices reflect immediate scarcity, longer-dated contracts suggest expectations for eventual resolution, with OPEC spare capacity and potential demand destruction looming in the background. Imsirovic emphasizes that price structure—not just flat price—holds the key to understanding oil markets, particularly in an environment shaped as much by geopolitical shocks and policy volatility as by traditional supply-demand fundamentals.
Transcribe →Record Backwardation: Understanding the Economic Return of USO in the Midst of a Global Supply Loss
Apr 900:56:34Tap to summarizeJohn Love, the CEO of USCF Investments, joins the podcast to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the United States Oil Fund (USO), which was the third commodity ETF ever launched. He explains that unlike physical gold funds, USO provides investors with access to the oil market by holding futures contracts, effectively "equitizing" a complex asset class that would otherwise require managing margin calls and rolling positions. A key distinction Love makes is that USO is designed to track the daily economic return of its underlying contracts, not the long-term spot price of oil, meaning its performance is heavily influenced by the "roll yield".The conversation addresses the current record backwardation in WTI, which recently saw prompt spreads hit $15 a barrel, a historic level of physical scarcity driven by the ongoing Hormuz energy crisis. This volatility is compared to the "uncharted territory" of April 2020, when futures prices plummeted to negative $37, forcing the fund to temporarily shift from a front-month strategy to a multi-contract basket to ensure stability. Finally, while there is political pressure for "drill, baby, drill" in the U.S., Love observes that many producers remain cautious due to capital discipline and the inability to lock in high spot prices on the back end of the futures curve.
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