Podcast
Oil Ground Up
Hosted by Oil Ground Up · EN
Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.
37episodes
Episodes
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Brutal Barrel Math: The Destruction of 10+ Million Barrels a Day Demand
Apr 200:58:08Tap to summarizeKarim Fawaz joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the relentless four-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global energy balances. The conversation explores why futures markets are "grievously underpricing" the current physical loss of 12 to 13 million barrels per day, a shock Fawaz describes as orders of magnitude more severe than any recent crisis. Unlike the managed demand destruction of the pandemic, this unmanaged supply loss forces a chaotic rebalancing that threatens to trigger a "global depressionary contraction" across the global South. The guests delve into the "Unilateral Taco" scenario, analyzing the potential collapse of the Carter Doctrine if President Trump chooses to withdraw U.S. security guarantees from the region. The discussion highlights the emergence of "Fortress North America," noting that the U.S. and Canada are uniquely positioned to weather the crisis through domestic production and flexible refining capacity. Ultimately, Fawaz warns that this is no longer just an intellectual exercise in balancing spreadsheets, but a human catastrophe with life-or-death consequences for millions.
Transcribe →An End to the Carter Doctrine? - What it would Mean if US Left the War While the Strait is Still Shut?
Mar 3100:52:53Tap to summarizeGregory Brew of Eurasia Group joins Rory to discuss the potential collapse of the Carter Doctrine following a provocative social media post by President Trump regarding the security of the Persian Gulf. The discussion centers on the 1980 policy that committed the U.S. to using military force to protect the flow of oil, a guarantee that now appears to be evaporating as Trump signals an end to U.S. protection for global energy routes. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for over a month and oil prices soaring toward $200, the episode explores the "Unilateral Taco" scenario where Trump might abruptly end hostilities regardless of whether the waterway is reopened. Brew analyzes Iran's shift from a struggle for survival to a strategic effort to maximize gains and impose tolls, leveraging their functional control over the world's most critical maritime chokepoint. The conversation also breaks down the "hydraulic relationship" between energy prices and political pressure, specifically how Iran uses allies like the Houthis as a lever to keep prices high and force a U.S. de-escalation. Brew examines the precarious position of GCC nations and Israel, who face the risk of their territories becoming permanent "live fire zones" if the U.S. abandons its traditional security role. Finally, the episode questions what a post-war status quo looks like and whether the credibility of U.S. energy guarantees can ever be restored after such a fundamental shift in geopolitical priorities
Transcribe →Why There is No Off-Ramp for Trump’s Gulf War
Mar 1900:57:21Tap to summarizeMatt Reed, Vice President at Foreign Reports, joins the Oil Ground Up Podcast to analyze the unprecedented and total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crisis that has now entered its third week with no clear off-ramp in sight. The conversation explores how a prolonged blockage represents more than a recessionary risk, threatening a "global depressionary event" that could fundamentally break energy markets and trigger double-digit contractions in regional economies. Reed breaks down the strategic impasse, noting that while the Trump administration seeks to degrade Iranian military capacity, Tehran is focused on regime survival by raising the global cost of intervention. The episode details a significant escalation in violence, highlighting recent Iranian strikes that targeted critical refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, as well as the destruction of Qatari LNG facilities. A major point of concern is the vulnerability of the East-West pipeline at Yanbu, demonstrating that even infrastructure designed to bypass the Strait is now within the reach of Iranian drones and missiles. The speakers address the "mystifying" price disconnect between Brent paper markets and the extreme physical scarcity reflected in $170 cash prices for Dubai crude and $200 jet fuel in Asia. In a surprising turn, the discussion touches on potential White House desperation, including rumors of seizing Iranian territory or offering sanctions relief to restore global supply. Finally, Reed concludes that the Strait remains a "shooting gallery" where commercial ships are ineligible for insurance, creating a crisis of lost time that could take years to repair.
Transcribe →View from the Gulf: Nader Itayim on Iran’s "Existential War" and the 8 Million Barrel Shutdown
Mar 1301:04:25Tap to summarizeNader Itayim of Argus Media joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the unprecedented escalation of the direct conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States and its devastating impact on global energy markets. The discussion explores how Iran has transitioned from decades of "proxy warfare" to what leadership now describes as an "existential war," abandoning its traditional "strategic patience" in favor of lashing out to create maximum economic chaos. Itayim details the severe physical disruptions to the market, revealing that nearly 8 million barrels per day have been shut in across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. A major focus is placed on the strategic maneuvers of Saudi Aramco, which is "sweating its assets" by utilizing the East-West pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and export crude through the port of Yanbu. Host Rory Johnston and Nader critique the Trump administration's lack of a clear endgame, highlighting the tension between military goals like "sinking the Navy" and the urgent need to prevent a full-scale global economic depression. The conversation delves provides insight into the fragmented leadership within Tehran, where various power centers like the IRGC may be operating independently to target regional refineries and critical infrastructure. But what does an end game to this conflict look like? Rory and Nader question whether the Gulf can ever return to being a "safe neighborhood" after such a profound display of regional instability.
Transcribe →From Economic to Kinetic Statecraft: Enforcing US Oil Sanctions
Feb 27Tap to summarizeIn this episode of the Oil Ground Up Podcast, guest Rachel Ziemba joins host Rory Johnston to provide an update on the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. economic statecraft and its impact on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The discussion explores the unprecedented transition in Venezuela, where the U.S. has moved from an aggressive naval blockade to a tightly managed stabilization effort following the extraction of Nicolás Maduro. Regarding Iran, Ziemba examines the massive military buildup in the Middle East and evaluates the possibility of a pragmatic "deal" designed to lower global oil prices. The conversation also breaks down the convoluted sanctions regime against Russia, detailing how recent blocking measures on major firms like Rosneft and Lukoil have significantly curtailed Indian imports. Finally, the episode highlights the challenges of the "shadow fleet" and the geopolitical dance between the U.S. administration and international oil majors to secure global supply chains.
Transcribe →The Outlook for Canadian Oil Production with Josef Schachter
Feb 20Tap to summarizeIn this conversation, Josef Schachter discusses the current state of the oil market, emphasizing the ongoing energy super cycle and the challenges faced by both US and Canadian oil production. He highlights the limitations of OPEC in increasing production and the implications for global oil prices. Schachter also addresses the infrastructure challenges in Canada, the importance of refining margins, and the potential for investment in the sector as foreign companies return. The discussion concludes with an overview of the risks to the bullish outlook for oil prices and the future of the energy sector.
Transcribe →Inside the High-Stakes World of Wireline and Modern Fracking
Dec 19Tap to summarizeThis episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast features host Rory Johnston in conversation with Andy De La Rosa, a senior field engineer with 15 years of experience in the wireline industry. De La Rosa describes wireline as the "tip of the spear" for the fracking process, utilizing specialized trucks with miles of steel conductive cable to send perforating guns downhole to fracture rock with shaped charges. Beyond the technicalities, the guests examine the wave of industry consolidation and how independent firms like Underdog Wireline survive market downturns.
Transcribe →The DOPE Cycle: Doubt, Optimism, and Oil Market History
Oct 11Tap to summarizeThis episode of the Oil Ground Up, hosted by Rory Johnston, welcomes back Robert Connors of Crude Chronicles to delve into the broad historical sweep of oil market cycles. Connors explains his long-term analysis, introducing the "DOPE cycle" (Doubt, Optimism, Parabolic Euphoria), and suggests the current oil market finds itself in the early "doubt wave" phase. The discussion examines key market drivers, including Connors' thesis that rising marginal costs of non-OPEC production effectively set a higher floor for future oil prices. Furthermore, they analyze granular, higher-frequency labor data which indicates that the oil and gas labor market has "cracked" and is now "frozen," with non-farm payrolls having rolled over. Connors outlines his "oil bull in a glut full of bears" thesis, arguing that macro forces like populism and currency debasement, combined with falling non-OPEC productivity and corporate incentives focused on high returns, point toward higher prices over the long term. Listen to gain a deep historical perspective on how current OPEC management, non-OPEC supply dynamics, and structural industry changes are positioning the oil market for the next phase of the cycle.
Transcribe →Tariff Tensions: US-India Trade Under the Spotlight with Russia in the Shadows
Aug 8, 2025Tap to summarizeIn this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, host Rory Johnston delves into the complex dynamics of US-India trade relations, focusing on the recent imposition of secondary tariffs by President Trump in response to India's continued purchases of Russian oil. Joined by Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, the discussion explores whether these tariffs are a strategic move in broader trade negotiations or a direct response to the India-Russia oil trade. Tune in to understand the implications of these tariffs on global oil markets and the geopolitical landscape. #USIndiaTrade #Tariffs #OilMarket
Transcribe →Canadian Oil: Growth in the Duverney and Montney, and the Race for MEG
Jul 31, 2025Tap to summarizeIn this episode of "Oil Ground Up," host Rory Johnston delves into the dynamic landscape of the Western Canadian oil and gas sector with expert insights from Michael Spyker, Principal Analyst at HTM Energy Partners. The discussion navigates the complexities of the non-oil sands sector, focusing on the Montney and Duvernay plays, and explores the strategic implications of Strathcona's bid for MEG Energy. Tune in to understand the evolving trends, challenges, and opportunities within this pivotal industry. Don't miss this deep dive into the heart of Canada's energy frontier.
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