On Strategy Showcase: Episode Summary
Title: Planners Guess How Their Favorite Super Bowl Ads Tested (It's Hilarious)
Host: Fergus O’Carroll
Release Date: February 11, 2025
Introduction
In this engaging episode of On Strategy Showcase, host Fergus O’Carroll invites marketing strategists Andrew Tindall from System One, Jamie McGill, Head of Strategy at DDB Chicago, and Stephanie A Wee, Head of Connections Planning at TBWA Chiat Day in Los Angeles, to analyze and predict how their favorite Super Bowl 2025 advertisements performed according to actual consumer testing data. Recorded on February 10th, the episode delves into the strategists' perspectives on the ads, their predictive scoring, and the subsequent revelations when compared to System One's ratings.
Guests Introduction
- Andrew Tindall (00:00): Senior Vice President at System One, responsible for consumer research and ad testing.
- Jamie McGill (02:32): Head of Strategy at DDB Chicago, experienced in overseeing impactful advertising campaigns.
- Stephanie A Wee (03:00): Head of Connections Planning at TBWA Chiat Day in Los Angeles, with a background in strategic ad planning.
Methodology of Scoring
Fergus outlines the episode's structure: each guest selects their top three favorite Super Bowl ads, predicts their System One consumer ratings on a scale of 1 to 5.9, and compares these predictions with actual scores provided by Andrew Tindall. System One evaluates ads based on brand recall, emotional engagement, and overall emotional response, with a special focus on how effectively the ad resonates with consumers.
Discussion of Favorite Ads
Number Three Picks
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Stephanie A Wee: Coors Light - "Case of the Mondays" (10:28)
- Stephanie's Take (10:28): Stephanie praises the ad for its clever portrayal of overcoming Monday sluggishness with humor and creativity, highlighting the cycling scene and work environment.
- Notable Quote: “I just thought it was so fun and clever... a clever take on the case of the Mondays being their case.” (10:28)
- Predicted Score: 4.0
- Actual Score (Andrew): 3.0 (14:27)
- Discussion: Stephanie expressed surprise at the mid-tier score, considering the ad's creative approach. Andrew noted that while the ad was strong, brand attribution was slightly diluted as 20% of consumers couldn’t recall the brand immediately.
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Jamie McGill: Mountain Dew - "Kiss from a Lime" (15:39)
- Jamie's Take (15:39): Jamie enjoyed the ad's humor and self-awareness, particularly the inclusion of Seal, which added a layer of absurdity and entertainment.
- Notable Quote: “I thought the craft of it and the timing and everything and the extended version, I love the self-awareness.” (15:39)
- Predicted Score: 2.6
- Actual Score (Andrew): 1.9 (52:34)
- Discussion: Jamie appreciated the ad's entertainment value but foresaw its polarizing effect. Andrew explained that while the longer version scored higher, the shorter 32-second spot polarized viewers, reflecting a strong spike in emotional engagement but a lower overall impression.
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Fergus O’Carroll: Liquid Death - "Drinking on the Job" (22:05)
- Fergus's Take (22:05): Fergus admired the ad for its strategic alignment with Liquid Death's brand identity, portraying relatable professionals humorously.
- Notable Quote: “I like the purity of coming back to that idea... So, that would be my number three.” (22:05)
- Predicted Score: 2.2
- Actual Score (Andrew): 1.6 (24:27)
- Discussion: Fergus emphasized the importance of knowing the target audience. Despite its strong alignment with the brand, the ad received a low score due to its niche appeal and polarizing content.
Number Two Picks
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Jamie McGill: Google - "Dream Job" (27:20)
- Jamie's Take (27:20): Jamie highlighted the emotional depth of the ad, focusing on a father's journey back into the workforce with the help of Google's AI, portraying a heartfelt and relatable story.
- Notable Quote: “I love the way they did it and I think it was like really distinctively Google for me.” (28:10)
- Predicted Score: 5.1
- Actual Score (Andrew): 3.1 (30:35)
- Discussion: Despite Jamie's high expectations, the ad scored moderately. Andrew attributed this to the challenging nature of selling AI concepts and the need for greater consumer familiarity with the technology. The emotional storytelling was effective but hindered by the abstract nature of AI.
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Stephanie A Wee: Ram - "Goldilocks" (32:05)
- Stephanie's Take (32:05): Stephanie appreciated the humor and high-energy storytelling, particularly Glenn Powell's performance, which effectively balanced performance and humor.
- Notable Quote: “Lots of peaks throughout that story that got me to giggle or laugh.” (32:05)
- Predicted Score: 3.3
- Actual Score (Andrew): 3.7 (36:35)
- Discussion: The Ram ad surpassed Stephanie's prediction, scoring within the top 5% globally for car ads. Andrew praised its clever use of the Goldilocks reference and broad cultural appeal.
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Fergus O’Carroll: Uber Eats - "Celebrity Campaign" (40:30)
- Fergus's Take (40:30): Fergus commended the ad for its seamless integration of celebrity without overshadowing the brand, ensuring strong brand recall and strategic alignment.
- Notable Quote: “I thought it was incredibly well branded. It is very memorably Uber Eats.” (40:30)
- Predicted Score: 4.6
- Actual Score (Andrew): 4.1 (43:52)
- Discussion: The Uber Eats campaign achieved high brand recall and effectively utilized celebrity presence to enhance brand messaging without deterring from the core concept.
Number One Picks
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Stephanie A Wee: ChatGPT - "Splitting the Cells" (48:23)
- Stephanie's Take (48:23): Stephanie lauded the ad for breaking conventional Super Bowl norms with its minimalist black-and-white storytelling, captivating the audience's attention through curiosity and innovation.
- Notable Quote: “An ad that just broke through and got the room's attention.” (48:23)
- Predicted Score: 1.1
- Actual Score (Andrew): 1.2 (53:07)
- Discussion: Stephanie accurately predicted the low score, emphasizing that while the ad successfully grabbed attention, it struggled with brand attribution and emotional connection, resulting in a minimal score.
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Jamie McGill: Nike - "Women in Sports" (54:22)
- Jamie's Take (54:22): Jamie appreciated Nike's moving portrayal of female athletes and the emotional resonance it created, particularly with personal connections like her 8-year-old daughter.
- Notable Quote: “It felt very Nike Classic Nike.” (54:22)
- Predicted Score: 2.0
- Actual Score (Andrew): 3.2 (57:43)
- Discussion: While Jamie anticipated a lower score due to potential polarization, the Nike ad performed robustly within its category, effectively conveying its message and resonating with a significant portion of the audience.
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Fergus O’Carroll: Google Gemini (47:00)
- Fergus's Take (53:42): Fergus expressed enthusiasm for the ad's strategic depth, focusing on innovation and human stories, though initially struggling to grasp its full narrative.
- Notable Quote: “It's about innovation throughout history.” (51:06)
- Predicted Score: 1.9
- Actual Score (Andrew): 1.1 (52:48)
- Discussion: Fergus predicted an exceptionally low score, highlighting the ad's complexity and the challenges consumers faced in brand attribution, aligning closely with the actual score.
Final Results and Winner
After tallying the predicted and actual scores across all top three picks, Jamie McGill emerged as the winner with a consistent alignment between her predictions and the consumer data, showcasing a deep understanding of consumer perceptions. Her selection of the Nike ad, despite its moderate score, underscored the importance of emotional storytelling and brand consistency.
Concluding Insights
The episode highlighted the discrepancy between marketing strategists' expectations and actual consumer responses. Key takeaways include:
- Brand Attribution: Effective brand recall remains a critical challenge, especially in highly creative or abstract ads.
- Emotional Engagement vs. Product Clarity: Striking the right balance between emotional storytelling and clear product messaging is essential for higher consumer ratings.
- Audience Alignment: Understanding and aligning with the target audience's preferences and perceptions can significantly impact an ad's success.
- Category Benchmarking: Evaluating ads within their specific category context provides more meaningful insights into performance and effectiveness.
Notable Quotes
- Fergus O’Carroll (04:51): “I tell you, my thought, guys, when I saw the Super Bowl yesterday was I didn't think there was a great wow spot.”
- Andrew Tindall (07:10): “My team stayed up all night testing all the spots of 10,000 Americans and it's the strongest Super Bowl yet in six years.”
- Jamie McGill (16:22): “I thought the craft of it and the timing and everything and the extended version, I love the self-awareness.”
- Stephanie A Wee (48:49): “I’m gonna say it’s like a 1.1. I think people watched him, were intrigued.”
Conclusion
This episode of On Strategy Showcase provided a fascinating glimpse into the world of Super Bowl advertising through the lens of seasoned strategists. By comparing their predictions with actual consumer data, listeners gained valuable insights into the complexities of creating impactful and memorable advertisements in one of the most competitive advertising arenas.