On with Kara Swisher

"Inside the MAGA Blueprint for Breaking the Midterms"

Date: February 19, 2026
Host: Kara Swisher
Guests:

• Natalie Adona — Registrar of Voters, Marin County, CA
• Susan P. Glasser — Staff Writer, The New Yorker
• Nate Persily — Professor, Stanford Law School

Episode Overview

This urgent and illuminating episode explores how Donald Trump and his allies are preemptively reshaping the landscape for the 2026 midterm elections. Host Kara Swisher speaks with a journalist, an election official, and a law professor to break down both concrete and rhetorical strategies being deployed to influence, and in some cases, undermine faith in U.S. democracy. The conversation tracks a shifted, escalated playbook: seizing ballots, gerrymandering efforts, voter roll purges, and attempts to nationalize election rules. The guests analyze what’s already been done, what could happen on Election Day and after, and how officials and experts are bracing for impact.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's Preemptive Undermining of the Election

• Trump’s New Blueprint: Trump declares plans for nationwide voter ID—even absent congressional approval—and seeks to ban mail-in voting. He frames the midterms as "rigged," setting up a narrative of fraud well in advance ([03:31]).
• Weaponizing Narratives: The panel agrees that undermining confidence is central to Trump’s strategy, enabled by an all-fronts assault: legal threats, map redrawing, intimidation of officials, and administrative maneuvers.
  • Susan Glasser: “It’s not an either question...what’s so striking about the 2026 midterms is Donald Trump’s preemptive efforts to undermine it on such a broad front.” ([04:11])
  • Nate Persily: “Each of the elections, even the ones that he won, was marred by fraud. We tend to forget that even in 2016, he thought that that was a fraudulent election.” ([06:01])

2. Administrative and Legal Moves Already Underway

• Ballot Seizures & Data Requests

  • The FBI, acting on debunked claims, raided the Fulton County, GA, election hub—fueling conspiracy theories and calls for state takeovers ([08:36], [09:14]).
  • The Trump administration is suing states (including CA) for voter roll data, seeking PII to potentially manufacture cases of fraud and justify purges ([14:40]).
  • Natalie Adona: “Our focus is on making sure that people get the nonpartisan information that they need, because at the end of the day, people just want to vote.” ([06:46])
  • Nate Persily: “They’re gonna use the data that they get from the states to match up…to then allege that millions of people are ineligible…One more ingredient in the recipe to prove that the election is fraudulent even from the get-go.” ([12:16])

• Gerrymandering

  • Ongoing, with both parties participating. Norms are eroding, and strategic redrawing may backfire on Republicans ([12:16]).

3. Voter Intimidation and the Specter of Militarized Polling Places

• Mobilizing Law Enforcement: Trump and allies propose using ICE or the National Guard to “secure” polling sites in select states—especially those with large immigrant populations ([22:11]).

  • Susan P. Glasser: “You wouldn’t have to do it everywhere…just in targeted places where there might be immigrant voters.” ([24:04])
  • The panel is skeptical of legal feasibility, but worried about targeted intimidation and chilling effects.

• On-the-Ground Election Official Experiences

  • Natalie Adona recounts the 2020 “Trump train” event outside her office: “I have to say, I felt a little intimidated myself…It was a situation where I did not feel I could go out there on my own…” ([27:09])
  • Officials rely on law enforcement, clear laws against electioneering, and communication—with a focus on making voting accessible and intimidation-free ([30:21]).

4. "Stop the Count" Redux—Dangers in Certification

• Potential for Post-Election Chaos
  • Trump openly regrets not seizing voting machines in 2020 and now voices that regret publicly. The panel fears a martial-law-like scenario if officials again seek pretexts to disrupt or block certification ([31:51], [34:39]).
  • Susan Glasser: “What Trump seems to have learned from 2020 is seize the machines, stop it before those results get certified.” ([33:12])
  • Officials prepare through legal counsel, injunctions, and robust, transparent procedures.

5. Congress in Crisis—What If Election Results Are Not Accepted?

• If House control hangs in the balance, Speaker Mike Johnson could refuse to seat elected members on claims of illegitimacy, keeping Republicans in power through procedural maneuvering ([38:26]).
  • Nate Persily: “We’re walking in a totally new constitutional snow at that point...It’s a very different situation than even January 6...” ([38:53])
  • Susan Glasser notes that majority control could flip even before November, given the GOP’s razor-thin House majority ([43:06]).

6. Supreme Court and the Voting Rights Act

• The Supreme Court appears poised to gut Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, undermining protections for minority representation and making future gerrymanders even easier ([48:58]).
  • Nate Persily: “I do think the Supreme Court is going to gut Section 2 of the VRA. I think the writing is on the wall.” ([49:22])

7. The Role of Election Officials and Journalism

• Officials say large-scale election fraud would be nearly impossible due to process, transparency, and oversight ([51:05]).
  • Natalie Adona: “We care very deeply about a free and fair elections process…Even in the face of...harassment, intimidation, even threats...We are dedicated to this process.” ([60:00])
• Susan Glasser on journalism’s duty: “I feel the same way about journalism. Reporting independently without fear or favor doesn’t mean saying that there’s an equivalence between our two parties...It means being able to speak without fear or favor.” ([54:49])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Early Takeaway
  Susan Glasser ([04:11]):

  “Here we are only in February and we’re already in a scenario where it’s not if, but when and how Trump is going to seek to undermine our confidence in these elections.”

• On Data Purging
  Nate Persily ([12:16]):

  “They’re gonna use the data that they get from the states to match up against something like a DHS database to then allege that millions of people are ineligible that are on the rolls.”

• On Voter Confusion and Intimidation
  Natalie Adona ([06:46]):

  “For me and for many of my colleagues, if it’s not on the books as law, then it’s just sort of messaging. But…the messaging does have an effect on voters. They get confused—do I need ID, do I not need ID?”

• "Seize the Machines"
  Susan Glasser ([33:12]):

  “What Trump seems to have learned from 2020 is seize the machines, stop it before those results get certified.”

• On Congressional Chaos
  Nate Persily ([38:53]):

  “We’re walking in totally new constitutional snow at that point...It’s a very different situation than even January 6...then we’re talking about an election that was run, and then…a leader rejects the elections and tries to cancel the vote.”

• On Resilience and Civil Society
  Susan Glasser ([57:18]):

  “This is a moment for civil society to come together in a pretty sweeping way and not to wait until it’s too late, because I think that’s what happened after Donald Trump was first sworn in last year—that you didn’t see the kind of civil society coming together...If that doesn’t happen, a lot of the things we’re warning about in this podcast may come to pass.”

• On Institutional Optimism
  Nate Persily ([58:51]):

  “A lot has to happen before we get to that apocalypse…The courts have been quite active in particularly protecting the vote…and the system, I remain optimistic that the system is going to hold.”

• On the Work of Election Officials
  Natalie Adona ([60:00]):

  “We care very deeply about a free and fair elections process where voters get to participate if they choose to do so, and that we count ballots to the fullest extent of the law…We all open up the process so people can have the opportunity to come and see the level of detail and verification that we pour into to every election.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:31] — Table-setting: Trump's current messaging and panel intros
• [04:11–08:36] — Experts' opening take: threats before, during, and after Election Day
• [08:36–17:56] — Administrative maneuvers: ballot seizure, gerrymandering, voter roll data struggles
• [22:11–24:04] — Risks of militarization: ICE/National Guard at polling cites
• [27:09–31:30] — Real-world intimidation: The "Trump train" and on-the-ground obstacles
• [31:51–38:26] — Certification showdowns, seizing machines, injunctions, and chain of custody
• [38:26–45:31] — What if Congress won't seat members? Scenarios and potential constitutional crises
• [48:58–52:50] — The Supreme Court and the (likely) end of VRA Section 2
• [54:49–56:35] — The mission of journalism in defending democracy
• [57:18–61:45] — What needs to happen to prevent "death by a thousand cuts"; officials’ and citizens’ roles

Final Thoughts & Takeaways

The episode ends on a measured, if wary, note: While institutions still matter and local processes are robust, democracy’s defense relies on active civil society, vigilant courts, and transparent administration. The biggest threat may not be one dramatic event, but the ongoing erosion of trust and the normalization of anti-democratic tactics. The guests call upon journalists, election officials, and ordinary citizens alike to hold fast to norms, demand transparency, and participate fully—or risk the long-term health of U.S. democracy.