The “Elon Election”: What It Means For America and Musk

Summary

Podcast Summary: On with Kara Swisher – "The 'Elon Election': What It Means For America and Musk"

Release Date: November 4, 2024
Host: Kara Swisher
Guests: Tim Higgins (Wall Street Journal columnist), Zoe Schiffer (Wired’s Director of Business and Industry), Eva Doe (Washington Post tech policy reporter)

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Introduction: The Elon Factor in a Critical Election

In this pivotal episode of On with Kara Swisher, host Kara Swisher delves into the extraordinary influence of Elon Musk on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Taped on October 31st, the episode dissects how Musk, though not a candidate, has emerged as a central figure influencing the election's dynamics through his financial contributions, social media prowess, and strategic endorsements.

Elon’s Active Role in the Election

Kara Swisher opens with a candid assessment of Musk's overt support for former President Donald Trump. She states, “Elon has gone old school oligarch, using his money, his megaphone and his contacts to put his very heavy hand on the election scale” (07:24). This unmasking of Musk as a de facto power broker sets the stage for a deep dive into his tactics and motivations.

Notable Quote:
Kara Swisher: “This is an opportunity mostly for him.” (03:00)

Musk's Wild Strategies and Public Persona

The guests highlight some of Musk's unconventional methods to sway voters. Zoe Schiffer recounts Musk’s “lottery” scheme, where he initiated a potentially illegal plan to award $1 million daily to individuals in swing states who signed pro-Trump petitions (04:54). This bold move has sparked investigations and raised questions about the ethical boundaries Musk is willing to push.

Notable Quote:
Zoe Schiffer: “This lottery is the kind of thing that I think was not the kind of thing we'd seen in elections before.” (05:27)

Megaphone vs. Money: Leveraging Influence

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around whether Musk's financial contributions or his massive social media presence (his “megaphone”) have a more substantial impact on the election. Eva Doe posits that the megaphone currently holds the most influence, especially in the final moments before voting (11:15). Tim Higgins and Christian Caster concur, emphasizing that Musk's ability to amplify conservative voices on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) is unparalleled.

Notable Quote:
Eva Doe: “At this moment, maybe the megaphone.” (11:15)

Notable Quote:
Zoe Schiffer: “The megaphone is appealing to people who wouldn't necessarily be as excited about the election.” (11:32)

Implications for Candidates and Policy

Kara explores the historical context of Musk's support, noting his previous backing of Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy. The transformation became evident after July, with Musk publicly endorsing Trump and leveraging his platform to promote Republican ideologies.

Notable Quote:
Kara Swisher: “He's been using X to boost Republican voices for years.” (09:46)

The conversation shifts to the potential outcomes based on the election results:

• Trump Victory: Musk could secure a significant role in the administration, potentially as the “Secretary of Cost Cutting”, influencing major policy decisions to favor deregulation and reduced government spending.

  Notable Quote:
  Kara Swisher: “He could begin working in the administration.” (25:53)

• Harris Victory: While this scenario might impose more regulatory scrutiny on Musk's ventures, the guests suggest that the dependency of the government on Musk's businesses like SpaceX and Starlink could limit the administration's ability to curtail his influence effectively.

Notable Quote:
Eva Doe: “Starlink is actually mentioned in Trump's election platform.” (35:51)

Business Impacts: Twitter/X, SpaceX, and Tesla

The episode delves into how Musk's political maneuvers are intertwined with his business interests:

• Twitter/X: Musk’s takeover has transformed the platform into a right-wing echo chamber, raising concerns about misinformation and the suppression of dissenting voices. Christian Caster highlights Musk’s manipulation of the platform's algorithms to favor conservative content, pointing out inconsistencies in his free speech claims (16:08).

  Notable Quote:
  Christian Caster: “Every accusation he makes is a confession of something he's done.” (18:42)

• SpaceX and Starlink: These companies are pivotal to Musk's influence, with significant government contracts that could be leveraged under a Trump administration to further military and surveillance capabilities.

  Notable Quote:
  Eva Doe: “Starlink is a field overwhelmingly dominated by Starlink and no one else at this moment.” (37:16)

• Tesla: Despite Musk's initial resistance to subsidies, Tesla has thrived under both Republican and Democratic policies, though a Trump administration might present challenges with potential trade escalations, especially concerning Musk's business interests in China.

  Notable Quote:
  Zoe Schiffer: “Tesla has benefited greatly from governments wanting an EV industry.” (40:25)

National Security and International Relations

Concerns about Musk’s international ties come to the forefront as the podcast discusses his connections with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other global leaders. These relationships pose significant national security risks, especially considering Musk's control over critical technologies like Starlink.

Notable Quote:
Zoe Schiffer: “Here's a man who has top secret clearance and his fingers in very important parts of the US Government.” (47:07)

Eva Doe further underscores how Musk's interactions with Putin and other non-traditional contractors blur the lines between business and intelligence operations, heightening security vulnerabilities.

Notable Quote:
Eva Doe: “He's meeting with Putin, Netanyahu in the middle of a war.” (49:04)

Future Scenarios: Post-Election Landscape

The guests speculate on the long-term implications of Musk's involvement:

• Under Trump: Musk's political agenda would likely be institutionalized, enabling him to influence regulatory bodies and push for minimal government interference, akin to his approach with Twitter/X.

  Notable Quote:
  Christian Caster: “We see Musk's political power codified.” (54:12)

• Under Harris: While there might be more regulatory challenges, the existing dependence on Musk's enterprises would complicate attempts to curtail his influence. The administration might prioritize maintaining productive relationships over stringent regulatory actions.

  Notable Quote:
  Eva Doe: “If Harris is elected, there's probably going to be more scrutiny and concern about him.” (53:50)

Conclusion: The Unstoppable Musk

Kara Swisher wraps up the episode by reflecting on Musk’s insatiable drive and ability to remain at the center of chaos, irrespective of the election outcome. Zoe Schiffer predicts that Musk will continue to be a pivotal figure, shaping policies and business landscapes with or without a Trump presidency.

Notable Quote:
Zoe Schiffer: “He's going to be in the center of more chaos. That's where he wants to be.” (51:47)

Kara emphasizes the transformative and potentially destabilizing role Musk plays in American politics and global affairs, urging listeners to critically assess the implications of his unprecedented influence.

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Key Takeaways:

• Elon Musk’s Influence: Beyond his business ventures, Musk is a formidable political influencer, leveraging his wealth and social media to shape electoral outcomes favoring his preferred candidates and policies.

• Impact on Policy and Regulation: Musk's potential role in the administration could lead to significant deregulation, impacting industries from tech to space exploration.

• National Security Concerns: Musk's international ties and control over critical technologies pose substantial security risks, necessitating vigilant oversight.

• Business Implications: Companies like Twitter/X, SpaceX, and Tesla are deeply entwined with Musk’s political maneuvers, affecting their operational dynamics and strategic directions.

• Future Projections: Regardless of election results, Musk’s relentless pursuit of influence ensures that he remains a central figure in shaping the socio-political and economic fabric of the nation.

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Final Note: As the election day approaches, Musk's strategic moves underscore a new era where billionaires wield unprecedented power over political landscapes, challenging traditional democratic norms and raising critical questions about the intersection of wealth, power, and governance.

Transcript

[Kara Swisher]

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[Tim Higgins]

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[Zoe Schiffer]

Can you make me sound smarter in post?

[Kara Swisher]

You're all very smart. It is. Hi everyone from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast network. This is on with Kara Swisher and I'm Kara swisher. It's Monday, November 4th. One more day to vote in this extremely fraught election. Do NOT NOT vote. Get out there today if you haven't already. Today, instead of talking about the candidates directly, we're going to discuss someone who's not on the ballot but has become a central character of this election. I'm talking, of course, about Elon Musk, the man being touted as the October Surprise or Dark Gothic Maga as this tech drama queen likes to call himself. I gotta say, I called it back in March when I said that Elon was as subtle as a brick about his support of Donald Trump. He was saying he was going to remain neutral. In fact, he's called Trump a bunch of pretty negative things over the years. But in the end, Elon's made it clear that this is an opportunity mostly for him. And so he's gone old school oligarch, using his money, his megaphone and his contacts to megalomaniacs like Russian President Vladimir Putin to put his very heavy hand on the election scale. You'd kind of call him a puppet master, except he's doing it in plain sight. So today my guests are experts in all things Musk. Wall Street Journal columnist Tim Higgins, author of the book Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. Zoe Schiffer, the new director of business and industry at Wired, former managing editor of Platformer, and also the author of Extremely Hardcore, Inside Elon Musk's Twitter. And Washington Post tech policy reporter Eva Doe, who has been writing about Starlink, Elon's satellite company. Her book on Huawei is coming out next year. They've been following this Musk moment closely. So we're going to talk about how Elon has been impacting the election, what he hopes to gain from it, and what that could mean for our country going forward. In many ways, this is the Elon election, and we thought it should be our final word on what's going to happen after tomorrow. Have a listen.

[Eva Doe]

It is on.

[Kara Swisher]

Hi, Zoe, Eva, Tim, thanks for being on on. I've got a Rogues gallery here to talk about a rogue, which I'm very excited about. Welco.

[Eva Doe]

Thanks for having us.

[Zoe Schiffer]

Thank you.

[Christian Caster]

Thanks for having us.

[Kara Swisher]

So we're taping this on Thursday, October 31st. Our listeners are hearing this Monday, November 4th, the day before the election. People keep saying that this is the podcast election, but I think it's the Elon election. It's hard to keep track of all his stunts and various machinations. So let's start out. What's the craziest thing you think Elon has said or done in the past few weeks? Briefly, let's start with you, Zoe, then Eva, and then Tim.

[Christian Caster]

Oh my God, so many to choose. Said I don't know, that's really hard to choose. I think the lottery was pretty wild to me. I think that was a really bold move. In case your listeners don't know, he basically created this possibly illegal scheme to randomly award a million dollars a day to someone in a swing state who signed a pro Trump petition. And he's being investigated for that right now. That one, I would say, caught me off guard.

[Kara Swisher]

Caught you off guard all right, Eva.

[Eva Doe]

Yeah, I'd have to agree with Zoe, just this lottery is the Kind of thing that I think was not the kind of thing we'd seen in elections before. Just sort of money playing such a naked role in the election and of course, leads into all kinds of other interesting issues about him being the world's wealthiest man and sort of his financial stake in this election.

[Kara Swisher]

Exactly. All right, Tim.

[Zoe Schiffer]

The most interesting thing or surprising thing in the last hour or week or.

[Kara Swisher]

Day, I mean, it's whenever most recently.

[Zoe Schiffer]

I mean, one of the things that I was a little bit surprised was his kind of apparent agreement just the other day with somebody on X suggesting that his plans for the Government Efficiency Commission would crash the government or would crash the economy. The kind of. Just the naked honesty there at a time when you're in political season and people are saying. And he's been saying a lot of things that I think a lot of people want to hear, that kind of nuance, or lack of nuance was just a little surprising to me.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah. Yeah. Well, he's preparing everybody for the disaster to come. So let's talk about specifically what he's doing. In the last months, he's become one of Donald Trump's top surrogates. I think the top one. He was on the MAGA stage at Madison Square Garden. He's been on the campaign trail in Pennsylvania. Of course, he's been promoting him nonstop on Twitter, and we'll talk about that and money in a minute. But I first want to talk about how we got here. Elon publicly endorsed Trump on X on July 13th. Of course, he'd been working behind the scenes for months, despite claiming he wasn't going to donate to any presidential campaigns. In March, I said he was as subtle as a brick about his support of Trump, which he pushed back, on, which I feel vindicated, I guess, weirdly, Tim, you wrote in July that the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Flip the switch for Elon. Explain what you meant by that.

[Zoe Schiffer]

Well, you know, it's interesting, to your point, he kind of been playing both sides. Well, not playing both sides, but he publicly had wanted to be kind of appearing neutral, but in the background, clearly working to help the Trump campaign. But on that day, clearly something changed. It was the whole playbook was out, and he was taking that public stance, very public stance. And it wasn't just endorsing almost immediately after that failed assassination attempt. It was then turning on his influence campaign on X with just tweet after tweet about why Trump was the way to go, why he was such a brave person, all of these things. And it has really just kind of escalated since then. Right. And one of the.

[Kara Swisher]

Do you think it has a personal thing? I think he thinks he is a Trump in a lot of ways, that people want to kill him.

[Zoe Schiffer]

If you listen to him in recent weeks, he clearly seems to be identifying with this idea that by speaking out, by advocating for his opinions, that he is at risk. There have been some episodes, according to him, where his life maybe had been in danger. But yes, he tends to kind of frame things as him against the world, him against these forces. And this just plays to this kind of idea that there are people in the shadows who are out to get him. And when he looks at Trump, that literally happened, and he seems to be identifying with this idea of Trump, Trump standing up immediately and pumping his fist to the air. Enchanting. Fight, fight, fight. That really seems to excite Elon. And Elon has talked about that. This kind of moment of strongman kind of bravado plays into something that Elon seems to be embracing in the last.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, the hustle, porn, I'm Staying all night in the Factory, et cetera. All this kind of ridiculous drama. To be clear, it wasn't a mystery whose team he was on. He obviously had been supporting Ron Desantis, unusually, and then Vivek Ramasw a minute and a half. And he's been using X to boost Republican voices for years. He really has. And since he got there, he certainly has done that and they've supported him. Zoe, you write about this in your book Extremely Hardcore, this Republican slant, which had been happening for a while, but especially after he bought Twitter.

[Christian Caster]

Yeah, I mean, this really was his project when he bought Twitter. It was to turn it into a political machine and make it much more of a, you know, what he would say is a free speech platform. But, I mean, it's not a mystery. And we can look in retrospect, one of the first things he does is ask people, should I bring Trump back to the platform? He obviously been suspended permanently for his part in the January six riots. And then, you know, they brought them back. I have this whole episode in my book where they're like frantically working behind the scenes because he fired so many people that they didn't actually have the infrastructure in place to bring him back without, like major hitches. But, yeah, I mean, he has very clearly wanted to use Twitter to support his increasingly conservative and right wing ideologies. And that's exactly what he's done pretty successfully.

[Kara Swisher]

One of the things that Mark Cuban told me right at the purchase was, besides the Narcissism, et cetera. One of the things he was saying, he's doing it for his business interests primarily. He's around the world because when he shows up as the Tesla guy or the SpaceX guy, they like him. But when he's the Twitter guy, he has more impact around the world. But right now what he's doing is he's throwing everything into this Trump campaign. A bit of a risk. His money, his megaphone on X, his personal brand. I wanna talk about each of these, but first I'd like, in a word, I'd like each of you to say what's having the most impact. Money, megaphone or the goth maga hat Moments. Let's start with you, Eva.

[Eva Doe]

At this moment, maybe the megaphone.

[Kara Swisher]

Why?

[Eva Doe]

Just in these last moments before the election, the impression that voters have these flashes of impressions, they're going to make a difference and move the needle.

[Kara Swisher]

What about you, Tim?

[Zoe Schiffer]

I'm going to go with megaphone. You know, the money is nice. Of course, it's not clear yet that it's having the kind of impact we'll see. But the megaphone is appealing to people out there who maybe wouldn't necessarily be as excited about the election. Young men who feel aggrieved, perhaps the ones that I've talked to out on the campaign trailer, they identify with him. They look up to Elon and they see him as kind of giving, purpose. And that's something that's very powerful.

[Kara Swisher]

What about you, Zoe?

[Christian Caster]

I want to say something different, but I agree that megaphone is the one. I think Elon's reach is almost unmatched. And he is speaking to that core demographic that Republicans need and want. Like Tim said, I also think money can only go so far. And we've actually seen in his ground campaign in America, PAC's ground campaign, that they have been pretty sloppy in how they've actually deployed the money. We had reports yesterday from Wired that they're using really glitchy apps and suspect subcontractors and workers are being treated pretty poorly and threatened even. And it's not clear that they're doing kind of the best practices in terms of the canvassing that they should.

[Kara Swisher]

Well, that sounds like an Elon operation in that regard. Tim, you were out on the campaign trail with Trump. Young white men were not a demographic that Trump was hurting in. Meanwhile, Elon's setting up this sister wives compound. He's denying it in Texas for his 11 kids and their moms. He's been spreading lies about immigrants, even if he is One, talk about what you saw in the campaign trail and whether this is actually helping Trump pull in voters. These were his voters to start with.

[Zoe Schiffer]

You hit on this. Interesting this point. I was out in Pennsylvania following Elon around as he was doing his own stump speech, which was basically like 10 minutes of him talking and then it could be almost two hours worth of questions from people. And these were people, these were a lot young men who were very excited, the opportunity to see Elon in person and ask him questions. A lot of them were already going to support Trump, as you point out. Some were undecided, some told me that they were only there for Elon, and now they were perhaps leaning towards Trump. But the common thing, there are a couple common things that were coming out was this idea that Elon was this inspiring hero, what he had done with things in business, whether it was Tesla or SpaceX or Twitter turned X. A lot of people talking about how they were really impressed with his leadership of that company, whether it was, in their words, promoting free speech and turning free speech back on the other idea is in their minds, the way that he cut costs there. They were very impressed by that. Even though I think some in the tech industry have rolled their eyes at what's left of the company. These folks were very excited about that and wanted to see him bring those cost cutting ways to the federal government if Trump wins. And Elon has some sort of role in that administration. So a lot about his business success, a lot about him as being an inspiration, and a lot about the idea of him being a cost cutter.

[Kara Swisher]

Right. Was anyone repelled by it? I'm thinking of my own sons who were big Elon fans and then are not in a way that had nothing to do with. They don't listen to anything I do.

[Zoe Schiffer]

It was interesting after one of the events in suburban Philadelphia at a high school, and it had gone long gone late, and I ran into a couple young guys who had graduated from the high school and one of them had been unemployed since graduating. And he told me he was really excited. And there was a young woman with them. And I turned to her and I said, well, what did you think? And she says, well, you know, she was impressed with Elon. And I said, well, this is going to get you to vote for Trump. And while the boyfriend and the buddy were yes, go Trump, she just kind of smiled politely and I pushed her and she said, I don't know, you know, and it was no, you know, it was her polite way of saying no, you know, and it was, you know, she was along for the ride. And I met a lot of young women who were clearly being dragged to these events, who were playing the dutiful wife or girlfriend. And when I would try to ask them, engage them, the boyfriends would say, yeah, we're not talking to the media.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, that's what I have. A lot of Trump relatives and all the wives are voting for Kamala Harris. It's really interesting. Quietly, which is interesting. Eva, there's a recent Washington Post analysis show the accounts of Republican politicians have gotten billions of more views in recent months and a spike in followers. They couldn't tell if X is directly manipulating this or not. Probably they are. Eva, you wrote about how X suspended white dudes for Harris back in July. Talk about what happened there and the use of the platform to pick and choose among the white dudes. They want to have influence there.

[Eva Doe]

Yeah, yeah. This is something that some of my colleagues, as you mentioned, have tried to quantify just what this impact has been on amplifying Trump's base, their voice on X and the opposite for Harris's. And it's not transparent, but we see enough data points and you can see very visibly that Elon himself, his personal reach is broader than even Trump himself, more than any of the president's. He has one of the largest personal platforms. And then also people who are supportive of Trump, you just see them getting a far larger reach than supporters of Kamala Harris.

[Christian Caster]

And we know that he has put his thumb on the scales behind them.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, I want to ask you about that. There's reports of X using Grok to boost election conspiracy and trending tops. Elon has become the biggest spreader of anti immigrant conspiracy theories on X. According to Bloomberg. False and misleading claims by him been viewed more than a billion times. Talk about what he did there. You talked about it in your book. He changed it. So we were. It was like the Clockwork Orange. We had to look at him. I'm not on PX anymore, but talk about that.

[Christian Caster]

Yeah, I mean, so we know that. I mean, this was a very, like, silly anecdote, but I think quite telling that after the Super bowl in 2023, Elon was quite upset that Biden's tweet was getting more traction than his was. They'd both tweeted in support of the Philadelphia Eagles. Of course, Musk thinks he's a much better tweeter than Biden. And so he had the engineering team at Twitter come into the office late at night, stay all night tweaking the algorithm and the Next day we all woke up and what did we see? An entire feed of Elon Musk. But I actually dug into that reporting a little bit more and saw that there were lists of what they called VIP users that they were artificially boosting on the platform. And we also know on the other side of things, he has artificially suppressed certain accounts, accounts that were tracking his jet, for example. Even though he said very clearly, I'm so committed to free speech, I would never do exactly that. And so I think we don't exactly know what's going on behind the scenes at this point, but we do know in the past he's been willing to put his thumb on the scales and change things so that the speech that he likes and he wants to see.

[Kara Swisher]

Is augmented, which is certainly within his rights. Except for complaining about shadow banning, saying don't shadow ban, and then does exist. I always feel it.

[Christian Caster]

Consistency has never been a strong.

[Kara Swisher]

No, I always feel it. Every accusation he makes is a confession of something he's done. Tim, we talked about the million dollar checks. Another thing that is on the edge. I wanna get into some of that. He's one of the top donors to President Trump. He's given about at least $118 million through his Super PAC America PAC. Talk about that money, the flow of money into it. It's obviously, to me, it's an investment, as far as I can see what prompted him and how is he doing it?

[Zoe Schiffer]

Yeah, it's interesting because you really didn't start to see the money with his name on it flow publicly until after there was another contentious issue being decided, and that was in his role as CEO of Tesla, his enormous pay package trying to get shareholders to reapprove that. And so he may have been in the background, he may have been parroting Republican talking points, but he was trying to kind of talk about how he wasn't supporting Trump. But then after that, and then we get into July, then it's very public. And that money's been going in large part for Republican ground games, playing kind of an unusual role for a PAC trying to turn out the vote. And we've seen Elon really kind of hit on these two very important ideas for a candidate, which is you gotta register to vote and you gotta turn out to vote. And it puts him in this kind of interesting position as a surrogate. In my previous life, I was a political reporter and I've seen a lot of surrogates on the campaign trail. You get a lot of high profile people and that's good it gets energy around a campaign and gets people excited at those rallies. But I think back to the early days, and this maybe dates me following around Howard Dean in Iowa before the Iowa caucuses, and there were all sorts of excitement for him. They were like rock concerts. But at the end of the day, he didn't have enough people turn out to caucus for him and he didn't win. And one of the things you see here is Elon is trying to turn out the vote. So it's not just about getting attention. It's about getting those people who maybe wouldn't necessarily be voting to kind of plug in and go to the ballot box and cast it for Trump. So it's an interesting strategy here that isn't traditional. The history of the US Is full of very rich people giving a lot of money and influence behind the scenes, but it's him out there using that megaphone power to do more.

[Kara Swisher]

Well, it's akin to Henry Ford, I think. I think that's the last time it's been so explicit in terms of owning media properties or using them in that way. We'll be back in a minute. Support for on with Kara Swisher comes from netsuite. On any given day, there can be lots of twists and turns when it comes to economic news. Is it a bear market or a bull market? Are interest rates up or down? Is inflation up or down? All these changing variables can make it difficult for your business to strategically plan for the future. That's why almost 40,000 companies choose NetSuite to help them future proof their business and stay on track no matter what tomorrow brings. NetSuite is a top rated cloud ERP, bringing accounting, financial management, inventory and HR into one fluid platform. With one one single source of truth. You can get real time insights and data you can use to make the right decisions faster than ever before. That way, when you're closing the books in days, not weeks, you're spending less time looking backwards and more time on what's next. If you're Interested in how AI might affect your business, you can download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at netsuite.com on the guide is free to you at netsuite.com on that's NetSuite.

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[Zoe Schiffer]

You've seen that.

[Kara Swisher]

And he said, I could cut costs without affecting anybody. So he will be in the Cabinet.

[Zoe Schiffer]

Not in the Cabinet. He doesn't want to be in the Cabinet.

[Kara Swisher]

He just wants to be in charge of cost cutting. We'll have a new position. Secretary of cost cutting. Secretary of cost cutting. Okay, sure. Why not? Voters have asked Musk about cutting spending while you were with him on the trail, Tim. And also, Zoe, you've written about his management techniques at the companies. Let's start with you, Zoe, on this. And then, Tim and Eva, I'd love you to talk about what position in the Trump administration and what it would be. But. So he sort of lay us out his approach to cost cutting at Twitter and what happened there.

[Christian Caster]

Yeah, I mean, he comes in the door at Twitter. His stance is very nice for people to understand.

[Kara Swisher]

Let that sink in.

[Christian Caster]

Exactly. He's carrying a kitchen sink. His stance with the company and all of the employees is very much, you guys are all lazy idiots, and I want to get rid of as many of you as possible. He is not sitting down to hear what people think, what worked in the past, what didn't. And in fact, he asks his deputies to get rid of as many of them as possible. He doesn't want to pay out their vested stock, and he wants them out the door. And there's kind of a back and forth on how quickly they can cut people. But basically, within a week of him taking over the company, half the employee base is gone. And we see almost instantly that core parts of the infrastructure start to break down and the team is having to. His team is having to call people and beg them to come back. And this whole back and forth from Elon's perspective, he's like, look, I got rid of all these people. I save all these costs, and the platform is still relatively functional. But it's one thing to have a relatively functional Twitter or X, it's another to have a semifunctional government. And I think him deploying these same techniques in the US Government is a much scarier prospect.

[Kara Swisher]

Right? Absolutely. Talk about also that you noted that he didn't pay people, he doesn't pay bills. Very similar to Trump.

[Christian Caster]

Right? Yeah. I mean, exactly. He. This kind of gets into his feelings on the regulatory system and interactions, you know, with the US Government. But Elon very much operates with the rules don't apply to me. I shouldn't have to pay people if they signed a contract with someone else, but it wasn't me. I shouldn't have to honor that contract. Like, it would be up to high ranking employees at the company to say like, this is going to get you in really hot water. You have to listen to us. You have to pay people at least the minimum, otherwise you're going to be embroiled in all these lawsuits. But we largely see him ignore their advice and just move forward the way he wants to, consequences be damned. And unfortunately, given the scope of his power and influence, there are very few consequences on his behavior when he refuses to play by the rules.

[Kara Swisher]

Well, refuses to pay. It's a similar Trump thing. I'm not paying vendors, so I'm just not going to. Sue me, sue me, sue me. So, Ivo, what position in the Trump administration would that be? Do you think he would actually take a position? And, and what would it be?

[Eva Doe]

Well, I think the way both Trump and he are couching this, it sounds like a flexible and informal position, which in a way gives him a lot of leeway to sort of push for his own interests. So keep in mind, the background is we're coming from the Biden administration, which has had this populist campaign against big tech to increase regulatory enforcement. So we talk about cost cutting. When we talk about cutting red tape, part of that means the opposite of what the Biden administration has done, which is more regulation on big tech companies, pumping the brakes on them, expanding their empires, even more, being cautious in rolling out billions of dollars in federal subsidies to them. So what I think he'd like to see for his own businesses is faster checks being sent out of federal subsidies for his companies like Starlink, less regulatory scrutiny for his companies like Tesla, less red tape for SpaceX and Starlink.

[Kara Swisher]

Right. I'm curious, what's less than zero? But, Tim, you've written about how Elon wants to be this chief red tape cutter, which Eva was just referencing. What does that mean from your perspective?

[Zoe Schiffer]

Yeah, it's interesting because in the recent days, it's been a lot about hearing him talk about cutting costs in the government or cutting spending. He wants to cut $2 trillion, which is like a third of the federal government spent in the last fiscal year. But really what seems to excite him is this idea of being able to slash regulations, in particular regulations that he doesn't like. And he has been for years kind of complaining about what he calls the little Strings that are holding down the giant, and they're in the way. And so when he points to his own businesses, whether it's SpaceX or elsewhere, he complains about EPA issues or issues with the wildlife agencies, and he just sees these things as slowing him down. And he feels during COVID Same thing. Covid, exactly the same thing. And so this idea of being able to get in there and kind of get rid of things that he feels are not necessary, and then he'll preface it as saying, well, we can't get rid of all regulations. We need safety. If we go too far, we'll just put them back, that sort of thing. But he's not the first CEO to complain about regulations.

[Kara Swisher]

Elon did yesterday.

[Zoe Schiffer]

But the power and the potential there. And the other thing is, one of the great things that Elon has the ability to do is to brand things. And so he has branded this. People are his rallies chanting the idea of him of cutting costs, because he's called it Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency. There is no Department of Government Efficiency. What Trump originally was talking about sounded like a task force, which is the classic thing in Washington. You set up a task force, the.

[Kara Swisher]

Grace Commission, for example.

[Zoe Schiffer]

Yeah. What happens? They don't really have any power. They can put attention on things. Well, Elon can put a lot of attention on things. And so this idea that he'll go in and start cutting these regulatory issues that are in the way of business gets him very excited.

[Kara Swisher]

So, Zoe, in that regard, Musk is not used to working for someone else ever, I would imagine. Talk about the two of them. I am waiting for that ugly fallout. It's going to happen because you saw Trump's face at the rally when he was jumping, and he was like, what's he doing?

[Christian Caster]

Yeah. These are two men with enormous egos who are very sensitive to being threatened by someone equally powerful to themselves. And right now, they're in a very transactional relationship, and it's kind of clear what each one is getting out of that relationship. But I think with Trump in particular, what we know from those close to him is he's incredibly sensitive to looking like a puppet, and he's been that way even with his own family members. As soon as someone looks like they're pulling the strings, he no, they have to get out. And I think Elon is in this position where he himself cannot run for president. And so here's an opportunity for people.

[Kara Swisher]

Who don't know he's an immigrant, illegal for a short amount of time, apparently, but he's an immigrant, and so he can't be president.

[Christian Caster]

Exactly. But this is an opportunity for him to be kind of a shadow president and have a ton of influence in a way that he hasn't so far.

[Rick Kwan]

Although.

[Kara Swisher]

But how does that link with Trump? Because I don't know. I feel like it's. I'm looking into that.

[Christian Caster]

Like, as soon as he starts to really, you know, rule from behind the scenes, I think we might see some real fallout. And if Trump, you know, is elected and he no longer has the use for Elon that he had on the campaign trail, I think their relationship could devolve very quickly.

[Kara Swisher]

Tim, weigh in on this.

[Zoe Schiffer]

You know, clearly there could be some rough patches ahead for the two. But one of the things that Elon is doing is giving voice to some classic conservative values that excite the party. I mean, when he talks about cost cutting, when he talks about getting the government out of your pocket, these are core things. And in a lot of ways, that messaging and that building that excitement helps Trump. It potentially helps Trump in the second administration with Congress to enact some of his policies and to get things through there. So there could be some benefits with just the way that Elon can excite people for these ideas that, as he kind of calls them, common sense, which, as time has shown, can be very difficult to actually enact. Cutting government spending, cutting regulations is very difficult.

[Kara Swisher]

But what about their interpersonal relationship?

[Zoe Schiffer]

Absolutely. That clearly could be an issue, as it has been in the past. Think about that truth social post that Donald Trump did, kind of suggesting that Elon was on his knees asking for things during the first administration when they had. They're two volatile people. The question is, how pragmatic can Elon be? Because he's going to need things. And ultimately, having a friend in the White House is very valuable.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, absolutely. But I'm a Highlander girl. There can be only one. And that's where they're gonna end up fighting. I'm certain of it. I'm almost certain of it. But obviously, having a direct line to the White House would be great for his business, Elon's businesses. Let's go through two scenarios. What he could stand to gain in the Trump presidency and what impact a Vice President Harris presidency could have. Let's start with SpaceX and Starlink. Elon's got massive government contracts, many billions of dollars. SpaceX is already the dominant player in the space industry, working with NASA. There was a story in the Times about how SpaceX has been building military and spy satellites for use by the Pentagon. Eva, you've written about Starlink as boom, as a business. If Trump wins, talk about that, are we going to see NASA pivot to Mars? And then alternately, if Harris wins, is he in danger of losing those contracts or at the very least losing his national security, which I've heard from a number of intelligence people.

[Eva Doe]

Yeah, yeah. I think what is kind of remarkable is that Starlink is actually mentioned in Trump's election platform, where he mentions the term near Earth orbit, which pretty much refers to Starlink at this point. A field overwhelmingly dominated by Starlink and no one else at this moment. So saying you're going to increase investment in near orbit in near terms means a promise of business for Starlink. On the flip side, for a Harris administration, I think one challenge that Elon Musk faces with either administration is a concern of vendor lock of SpaceX being the only vendor and the risk that brings to the government. And so there's a judgment call of how much of orders do you give to the number two player and the number three player under either administration? SpaceX is probably going to be number one in its field in the near future. But is that 80%? Is that 60%? That's like billions of dollars, maybe tens of billions of dollars that we're talking based on that judgment call. And I think it's clear if Trump has a close relationship with Elon Musk, that could make a difference in just how trustworthy they see him.

[Kara Swisher]

And with Harris, not so much.

[Eva Doe]

Yeah, yeah. And under the Biden administration, sort of the talking point from the Pentagon consistently has been diversification. When you mention space, they say they want to diversify, and that means.

[Kara Swisher]

And yet they've given. Given Starlink all the business, which is really interesting. I mean, they really have.

[Eva Doe]

Well, if you look carefully at the contracts, yes. To date, they're the only player in town. So to have. It's like when the iPhone came out. It's the only thing in the market. But if you look closely, like the most recent contracts, they picked 19 satellite vendors, which is kind of a staggering number for a market that's overwhelmingly dominated by SpaceX. And it. That means they want other players.

[Kara Swisher]

They want other players there. Yeah. So, Zoe, what happens at Twitter? Musk famously reinstated users that were previously banned, including the former president himself. Has become a megaphone for misinformation and inciting violence. And again, I shall repeat what I call it a Nazi porn bar. Trump railed insurrectionists on January 6th using Twitter. What happens to X if he wins and if Harris wins? And the future of the platform itself. Harris has previously advocated for increased regulation on social media. Platform Musk is now saying she will shut it down and arrest him, which is a little bit drama queen level, but that's clearly not true. But talk about Twitter or X under.

[Christian Caster]

Each administration, honestly, I don't see a whole lot happening either way. I mean, he's done so much already to turn it into a right wing echo chamber, which you called very early. This was his entire intent. This was the project of Elon buying Twitter in the first place. And he's been successful in that regard. And we've seen the FTC try and investigate the SEC get involved at different times. But ultimately, given Elon's power, like what's really going to happen, he's going to have to pay a little fine. I think as X previously, Twitter becomes more and more of a crucial platform for conservative ideas and conservative politicians, Elon's going to become more invested in seeing it be successful. And so while previously he might have said the platform's hemorrhaging money, I'm not going to pour more of my personal wealth into it. I could see him now, if regulation comes down, he has to pay a fine. Just ponying up and paying that fine in order to keep the platform going.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, I think he's going to keep it. No question. It's like, why not? He's rich. Everyone's always like, now he's. I'm like, why? He's so rich.

[Christian Caster]

Yeah, we don't.

[Kara Swisher]

He's getting richer. Like what the. He doesn't care. Exactly. So Tim, what about Tesla? Trump had previously threatened to repeal some of the pro EV policies that Biden put into place. Doesn't seem like Elon's afraid of that, though. He recently claimed that he was going to grow Tesla 20 to 30% in 2025, which led to a rally on Wall Street. But I and other analysts are very skep him actually doing that. I think they were just words. What do you think the impact of a Trump presidency on Tesla would be? Trump has been weirdly negative about EVs, et cetera. And you've written about the impact of Trump win on Tesla's special relationship with China. Does that change the calculation at all? And same thing in a Harris administration.

[Zoe Schiffer]

Yeah, this is an interesting thing. Whereas in a Trump administration, SpaceX has probably helped, in a Harris administration, Tesla is probably beneficial very much. Elon would like to say he doesn't want subsidies, he doesn't want government help for Tesla, but Tesla has benefited greatly. From governments wanting an EV industry. A detente has formed between Trump and Elon in this regard, in that essentially Elon supports this idea of not wanting mandates. The Trump administration talks about forcing people to buy EVs, which is not really what's going on. It's pushing people towards EVs, it's pushing automakers towards EVs for emission issues. But still, it sounds good in a soundbite. The idea that they're going to take your gasoline car from you. Harris administration, probably better for Tesla. And you hear from Tesla investors. It's interesting about the China situation. It wasn't until Tesla was able to open its factory in China that you really started to see the real growth at this point point, if not half, close to half of the vehicles are made in China. That is the engine, in a lot of ways, of its business. And they were able to open that factory in China without having a joint venture, which was unprecedented. And that is in part because of the special relationship that Elon developed with that government, a government that was wanting to build out its own EV industry.

[Kara Swisher]

And is building out and is.

[Zoe Schiffer]

And very successfully. And now to the point where local players are really rivals and are really scaring the rest of the industry.

[Kara Swisher]

Oh, they're killing Tesla in China for sure.

[Zoe Schiffer]

And this is kind of the classic kind of issue in China, is building up the locals and then kind of turning on perhaps the foreign companies that have come in. So there is this real risk. The idea that a Trump administration might kind of escalate a trade war is on people's minds. If the US and China, to get more complicated. Elon is already in the middle of it. He is seen as perhaps as a proxy for the Trump administration. Here's a guy who's been on stage with Trump who talks about being part of the administration. And there's a real thinking among those kinds of folks who study these things that Elon will be put in the middle of that. And if he can't deliver, that could really harm him.

[Kara Swisher]

Absolutely. So very quickly, Elon's putting a lot of money into X AI and Grok. He's raising money for investors at a $40 billion valuation. I think it's probably, probably not in the front row of AI companies. I think most people can agree. But any of you neuralink X AI come into play with these political ambitions?

[Christian Caster]

Zoe, it's not clear that there's going to be a huge difference between a Trump and a Harris administration in terms of AI regulation in particular. I think either way, Elon is interested in being a dominant player in that space. But as you said, he isn't right now. Xai certainly is not, and we're seeing him be kind of hilariously distracted by trying to elect President Trump. He's running six different companies and yet he's spending all this time in Philadelphia campaigning.

[Kara Swisher]

It's a good investment of his time.

[Christian Caster]

Yeah, exactly. And I think he thinks it'll pay.

[Kara Swisher]

Off, but I think he knows that Harris won't really go after him because she's a normal person.

[Christian Caster]

Yeah, I think AI like right now, these AI initiatives take an enormous amount of focus and investment, and I think it's really an open question whether he is going to be able to provide that or whether he's going to get distracted by other shiny options.

[Kara Swisher]

We'll be back in a minute. Support for this show comes from Lumen. There's endless advice out there on how to manage your weight and your stress and your sleep, especially as you age. Apparently, good metabolic health can help you stay on top of all of those things, but trying to monitor your metabolic health has net been easy. Lumen wants to change that. Lumen is a handheld device that's designed to monitor your metabolism with just your breath. You know those old timey recordings of a patient running on a treadmill wearing what looks like an oxygen mask? Well, that's one way doctors can check your metabolism. And now Lumen wants to bring that home in a device the size of your computer mouse. If you want to take the next step in improving your health, go to Lumen me Cara and get 15 off your luminous that's L U M E n me cara for 15% off your purchase. Thank you Lumen for sponsoring this episode.

[Ian Mitchell]

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[Kara Swisher]

So Tim, you and your colleagues at the Wall Street Journal published story recently on Elon's close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. You wrote back in February that people were calling him Moscow Musk. He's tried to woo other right wing world leaders like Argentina Javier Milei and India's Narendra Modi to push his business interests. We talk about his interest in China, obviously how concerned should be getting more power and influence under Trump. Talk a little bit about the Putin relationship. And then Zoe and Eva, what are your concerns in that regard?

[Zoe Schiffer]

Well, it's worrisome to folks who follow these things. My colleagues report that Musk and Putin have had regular contact, which counters what Elon has said. A few years ago he said he talked to him just once and the idea that they're in regular contact really worries folks, given the fact that he's so vital to the space program, as we've talked about, but also his powers with Starlink and his contracts with the Pentagon. Here's a man who he even talks about how he's got top secret clearance, he's got his fingers in very important parts of the US Government in a way that is not typical. And you don't see Pentagon contractors on a regular basis talking about supporting Putin, which is this interesting kind of relationship.

[Kara Swisher]

Well, the head of Nassau was worried about it too, in an unusual statement.

[Zoe Schiffer]

Absolutely. And so it's not just that situation. If you think about kind of the totality of what we've seen over the year, there's been a lot of like Russia, Russia, Russia. Right. Whether it was Tucker Carlson going to Russia and coming back with his interview with Putin and filling the X platform with those videos about how great the grocery stores are there and Putin talking about his admiration for Musk or Musk earlier this year trying to get his supporters on X to lobby against money going to the Ukraine or the reports of Starlink being used by Russian forces in the Ukraine, Ukraine, you're also seeing on X kind of a surge of Russian state backed activity, according to researchers. It's just a lot of Russia, Russia, Russia at a time when Russia is the US's chief adversary. And you see Elon on stage with Trump and what kind of influence he's going to have. It raises a lot of questions.

[Kara Swisher]

And it always was an issue with the Trump administration. Eva. And then.

[Eva Doe]

Yeah. So one thing that's not necessarily talked about too openly is the telecommunications industry is deeply intertwined with intelligence operations in every country. Because if you think about it, if you're going to spy, what tools do you use to spy? You're going to either tap or officially use some sort of telecommunications tool. And so, yeah, that's exactly why Elon Musk is not just a carmaker. Like, if you look at the kind of people he's meeting with, he's meeting with Putin. You know, Netanyahu takes time in the middle of a war to meet with him. Like, that's why he has this elevated position where he's impossible to ignore for the president, whoever the president is, and also an enormous security risk because he isn't a traditional contractor, federal contractor. He doesn't play by those rules.

[Kara Swisher]

No. Zoe, do you see a moment where you would look, lose his national security credentials? Obviously, the Journal's written about his drug use. You know, there's Putin stories. It all feels like a Bond movie at this point.

[Christian Caster]

Yeah, it really does. But again, I think he's. The US Government is so dependent on Musk at this point that it's very hard to see how they'll be able to hold him accountable. But I think the Russia example is so telling, because when we look at oligarchs in Russia who stood up to Putin, those people are no longer oligarchs and they're no longer billionaires. It's really, they have become his cronies and part of of his political operation rather than his political rivals. And I think that while business leaders in the US Might think they can have this transactional relationship with Trump, and then if he's elected and things do become more authoritarian, they'll be able to kind of hold the line on some of the areas where they disagree with him. I think the history of authoritarianism says otherwise.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah. So I'm going to end on that. Before we go, I was talking this week with historian Tim Snyder about the rise of digital oligarchs. He's specifically concerned about Elon. As we laid out, he's got a lot of power, more money than anyone on the planet, more influence than many world leaders. He's already impacting the outcome of wars. He owns spy satellites, and he doesn't play well with others for too long. I think he has issues around drugs, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. It just goes on and on and on and quite a healthy ego, I would say. He told me many years ago he thinks we are living in a computer simulation. I think he thinks he's player one in that simulation based on what each of you know about him. Where is ready player one in a year or two into each administration. Tim, let's start with you, then Eva and then Zoe, you can finish.

[Zoe Schiffer]

Well, I hate to make predictions, but it seems likely that no matter what happens, he's going to be in the center of more chaos. Right? That's where he wants to be. That's what he kind of thrives off of. And he's got so many companies and so many balls in the air that there's always something going on. Right. So it's continuing to push his priorities and the needs for those companies and for kind of his business interests. That's what he does. He's pushing forward for those things. So he's continuing to kind of swirl around and try to advocate for those things.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay. And in a Harris administration, I think.

[Zoe Schiffer]

It'S the same way. Either it's still fighting, either way, he's so influential that it's not like he can go, it's not like he's going to away. Right. He might become the chief antagonist for a Harris administration, given his platforms, but he's still gonna have to play with the government and figure out ways to do it. He might have more investigations against him. One of the real benefits we've talked about how in a Trump administration he wants to cut regulations and spending and that will be very hard. One of the real benefits he might have is the chilling effect on those regulators who oversee him, who maybe don't wanna get into that limelight and have the big fight with him and just kind of make things easy for him.

[Kara Swisher]

Okay, Eva?

[Eva Doe]

Well, we know one of his long term goals is to go to Mars within his lifetime. Yeah, can't wait. So I think under the Trump administration we'd see him sort of with roadblocks cleared, moving rapidly in that direction under Harry's administration, there's probably going to be more scrutiny and concern about him. And the question will be, is there an alternative? And right now for a lot of these lines of business, the answer Amazon's a potential competitor. Jeff Bezos businesses but maybe not. And without a viable alternative, it's not even a question on the table. Can we cancel his national security clearance? Can we stop using his businesses?

[Kara Swisher]

Well, they could cancel it and let Gwynne Shotwell run it. He doesn't have to have it. He doesn't have to.

[Eva Doe]

Potentially. Potentially. But it wouldn't be the same, right?

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, yeah. I think they're not gonna go out of their way to get in a fight with him. Why would they? It takes focus away from her admin and then it's that for the whole four years. I think she won't actually. She's quite a sensible person in that regard. Zoe, finish up.

[Christian Caster]

Yeah. I think under a Trump administration we see Musk's political power codified. We see him be in a position to regulate regulators that have been looking into his companies and being able to push his political agenda of small government. And we'll see him become even more wealthy and powerful than he is today. So that's a pretty intense prospect and seems quite likely. I think under a Harris administrator administration we see more of the same. And what I mean by that is prior to this current campaign cycle, we saw Musk involved in politics, but also running all of his other companies. He had a lot of different goals and now we've seen him kind of single mindedly focused on electing Trump. If Harris is elected, I see a small reprieve from that political project. I think that he'll go back, he'll focus on Tesla. Like Tim and Eva said before, he actually stands to benefit with that company in particular under a Harris administration. And then I think perhaps before the next election cycle, maybe he'll ramp up again and try and get a Republican, a conservative politician in the White House.

[Kara Swisher]

Who would it be?

[Christian Caster]

That's a prediction that I don't want to make, probably.

[Kara Swisher]

I don't know. That's interesting. Vance, I would guess. I guess he would push Vance and stuff like that.

[Christian Caster]

There's a lot of kismet between those two.

[Kara Swisher]

Yeah, kismet. That's an interesting way to put it. Anyway, thank you guys so much. I really appreciate it.

[Eva Doe]

Thank you.

[Zoe Schiffer]

Thank you.

[Christian Caster]

Thanks.

[Kara Swisher]

And we'll see what happens as we move move forward. On With Kara Swisher is produced by Christian Caster, Roselle Kateri, Yokum, Jolie Myers, Megan Burney and Kaylin Lynch. Nishat Kirwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Special thanks to Claire Hyman. Our engineers are Rick Kwan and Fernando Aruda and our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're already following the show, you have one more day to cast your ballot. Go do it. If you haven't already, go vote, for goodness sake. It's a privilege and an honor to do so in a democracy. And if you don't do it well, I'm going to be very upset with you. Go Wherever you listen to podcast, search for on with Kara Swisher and hit follow. Thanks for listening to on with Kara Swisher from New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network, and us. We'll be back on Thursday with more.

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