Podcast Summary: On with Kara Swisher
Episode: Venezuela after Maduro: Can Trump Control Caracas From Afar?
Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Kara Swisher
Guests:
- Luisa Palacios (Managing Director, Energy Transition Finance, Center on Global Energy Policy; former Chairwoman, Citgo)
- David Sanger (White House & National Security Correspondent, NYT; author of “New Cold Wars”)
- Alejandro Velasco (Historian, NYU; former Executive Editor, NACLA Report on the Americas)
Episode Overview
This episode explores the seismic consequences of the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the arrest of Nicolas Maduro. Host Kara Swisher examines whether America is entering a new era of “gunboat diplomacy”, what the U.S. aims to achieve, and how these events reshape LatAm geopolitics, the global oil markets, and notions of sovereignty—with a panel of experts in politics, security, economics, and Venezuelan history.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. A New Monroe (Donroe) Doctrine?
[03:15] - [06:08]
- David Sanger outlines how Trump’s actions expand the Monroe Doctrine: the U.S. not only blocks other powers from entering the hemisphere but intervenes directly in other states' internal affairs for vaguely defined U.S. interests.
- “Trump has done his own corollary… to argue that not only can the US act to keep other powers out… but also to intervene into the inner workings of other countries to defend its national interests without defining what those were.”—David Sanger [03:22]
- Luisa Palacios and Alejandro Velasco agree: this marks a before-and-after in both Venezuelan and US-Latin American relations, with consequences for foreign investment, especially from China.
2. Who's Actually in Control in Venezuela?
[06:08] - [12:46]
- Despite Maduro’s arrest, the fundamental power structure remains. Alejandro Velasco calls it “a regime change operation that doesn’t seem to have the changing of the regime.”
- “Nothing much has changed. The regime remains pretty much intact. And [now] Rodriguez, the Vice President, is president. That transition happened… seamlessly, very quickly.”—Alejandro Velasco [08:32]
- The U.S. is attempting a “virtual occupation”—using off-shore military threat and economic leverage without boots on the ground.
- “I cannot recall a case where we have tried essentially to do an occupation from afar.”—David Sanger [11:33]
- There are cracks in Venezuelan society—support vs. outrage over foreign intervention fuels deeper divides.
3. Trump’s Motives: Oil, Drugs, Primacy, Distraction?
[12:46] - [15:27]
- Multiple U.S. justifications are floated: retaliation for deportations, anti-drug strategy, reclaiming “stolen” oil, reasserting American primacy, and as a distraction from other scandals.
- Sanger is skeptical of “showy” rationales:
- “If they wanted to have the pretense of restoring democracy, they would have said that Edmondo Gonzalez, the winner of the 2024 election, is now restored as president… They made no effort to even try to go do that.”—David Sanger [14:13]
4. Oil Politics and Expropriation
[15:27] - [17:40]
- Luisa Palacios clarifies: the “stolen oil” rhetoric refers to the 1990s expropriations, with billions in ongoing claims from U.S., European, and local companies. (Approximately $20B in unpaid claims remain.)
- Velasco emphasizes Trump isn’t just seeking compensation—it’s about hemispheric dominance:
- “That is our oil… this is our hemisphere and, you know, we can do what we want.”—Alejandro Velasco [16:49]
5. History and Evolution of Chavismo
[21:08] - [23:43]
- Velasco traces the shift from participatory democracy under Hugo Chavez, to full anti-imperialist socialism, to Maduro’s survival by repression:
- “Without oil, the only thing that Maduro really had to go on was concentration of power through repression alone.”—Alejandro Velasco [23:23]
6. Who Rules Venezuela Now? Client State or Sovereignty?
[23:43] - [27:18]
- Trump claims the U.S. will run Venezuela; Rubio frames it as “running policy.”
- Both support Delcy Rodriguez (Maduro’s VP) as interim leader—essentially as an American client state.
- “The question is: can you be in charge without being on the ground? And for now, they're gonna try that experiment.”—David Sanger [25:08]
- Future control depends on the relationship between the U.S. and Rodriguez’s transitional government, especially regarding sanctions and oil blockades.
7. Rebuilding Oil, Sanctions, and Foreign Players
[27:44] - [34:40]
- Trump promises fast recovery; experts are skeptical. The industry is a shadow of its former self and needs major investment, security guarantees, and rule of law.
- Chevron (U.S.) and other foreign companies still present, but oil is mostly exported to China via black market routes.
- “You also need assurances that your people are going to be safe… you need more than just assurances.”—Luisa Palacios [33:22]
8. The People of Venezuela & Democratic Legitimacy
[35:37] - [40:52]
- Democratic restoration appears sidelined—no credible timeline for elections.
- “Trump seems uninterested in restoring democracy—he never even mentioned it. Usually they do, even if it’s as a pretense.”—Kara Swisher [35:37]
- Rodriguez’s regime is cracking down, arresting journalists and suppressing dissent.
- Expatriate Venezuelans differ in their reactions, deepening political fractures:
- “Some who left more recently are darker skinned, poorer… there is that to think about.”—Alejandro Velasco [39:22]
9. Global Implications: Latin America, China, and the New Order
[42:20] - [49:00]
- Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” ambitions are global—threats issued to Cuba, Colombia, even Greenland are discussed.
- Luisa notes U.S. interest in Latin America now extends beyond oil to critical minerals and logistics.
- Velasco observes that Rubio and Trump are driven partly by ideology—instilling hemispheric dominance, and demonstrating that leftist regimes “cannot come to power”.
10. What Does This Mean for the U.S. and the World?
[49:00] - [55:45]
- Kara cites Timothy Snyder’s warning: this kind of war is “more about regime change in the U.S. than Venezuela.”
- Sanger: This is a narrowing of American global interests; such executive overreach is hard to contain once unleashed.
- Palacios sees the normalization of a new style of international “interaction”—the collapse of Latin American leftist ideals: “What kind of political system is stable in Latin America… the limits of… economic statecraft.”
- Velasco: The future depends on how far Americans are “willing to go to sacrifice not just control over the White House, but really over the U.S. position globally…”
- “If it’s allowed to go on, then absolutely, it will be consolidated and we’re in the throes of an entirely new world.”—Alejandro Velasco [55:39]
Notable Quotes and Moments
- “This also redefines U.S.-Latin America relations... establishes what does the Monroe Doctrine mean nowadays in Trump World.” —Luisa Palacios [05:44]
- “We’re seeing a kind of regime change operation that doesn’t seem to have the changing of the regime.” —Alejandro Velasco [09:51]
- "It’s almost a virtual occupation... I cannot recall a case where we have tried essentially to do an occupation from afar.” —David Sanger [10:55-11:42]
- “This is about the unpaid claims of all those expropriations that took place in the 1990s.” —Luisa Palacios [15:27]
- “It goes beyond that... it is much more about a sense of ‘This is our hemisphere.’” —Alejandro Velasco [16:49]
- “The question is, can you be in charge without being on the ground? And for now they're going to try that experiment.” —David Sanger [25:08]
- “It’s not only about assurances of security, it is about rule of law, it is about sanctity of contracts, it is about governance, it is about having visibility. These are 10 year, 20 year types of investments.” —Luisa Palacios [33:22]
- "Trump seems uninterested in restoring democracy—he never even mentioned it. Usually they do, even if it’s as a pretense.” —Kara Swisher [35:37]
- “Is the project of the city on the hill dead finally, forever and evermore? That's really what's at stake.” —Alejandro Velasco [54:56]
Key Segment Timestamps
- [03:15] — Panel’s initial “top-line” reactions to U.S. military operation
- [06:08] — Ways this changes the region, China’s response
- [08:32] — What’s actually changed in Venezuela? The “virtual” regime change
- [12:46] — Motives for the operation: oil, drugs, power
- [15:27] — Deep dive into U.S.-Venezuelan oil history and expropriation
- [21:08] — History and evolution of Chavismo and Maduro’s regime
- [23:43] — Is Rodriguez just “Maduro without Maduro”?
- [27:44] — Feasibility and timeline for oil industry revival
- [35:37] — Prospects for democracy and Venezuelan popular reaction
- [42:20] — “Donroe Doctrine” and revival of U.S. hemispheric ambitions
- [49:00] — Is this war about Venezuela, or U.S. regime change?
- [55:49] — Closing reflections on American democracy and world order
Conclusion
Wide-ranging and incisive, this episode grapples with history-in-the-making: the U.S. seizes the initiative in Venezuela, but the outcome for governance, oil, regional stability, and democracy is anything but clear. The risks of “virtual occupation,” global blowback, and U.S. democratic erosion loom as large as the power games within Caracas.