On with Kara Swisher: "Winners, Losers & WTF Moments: A Look Back at 2025’s Top Tech Stories"

Date: December 22, 2025
Host: Kara Swisher
Guests: Bill Cohen (Financial Journalist), Casey Newton (Platformer/Hard Fork), Joanna Stern (WSJ), Charlie Warzel (The Atlantic)

Episode Overview

This "Techapalooza" edition of Kara Swisher's podcast brings together four top journalists to recap and debate the wildest, weirdest, and most pivotal tech stories of 2025. Throughout, the conversation unpacks the ongoing AI boom and bubble fears, tech’s political maneuvering under President Trump, China’s AI power, Musk’s downward spiral (including his Doge debacle and the Grok chatbot disaster), and the rising social and ethical issues that are shaping Silicon Valley. The journalists also look ahead to 2026 and share spicy predictions about what comes next for the tech world.

Main Themes & Discussion Points

1. Describing 2025: One Word Summaries

[Timestamps: 03:26–04:21]

• Bill Cohen: "New hype cycle" — A phase of renewed tech optimism, especially around AI.
• Casey Newton: "Data centers" — The fundamental tech infrastructure of the year, essential for AI's exponential growth.
• Joanna Stern: "AI hype" — The flood of attention, investment, and speculation.
• Charlie Warzel: "Dogefication" — US politics and government, like tech, chasing memes and chaos.

"The AI buildout is now on track to be bigger in terms of cost than the build-out of the entire US Interstate highway system." — Casey Newton [03:53]

2. The AI Bubble & Economic Risks

[Timestamps: 04:27–06:51]

• The Magnificent Seven (tech giants) now make up over a third of the S&P 500.
• Nvidia became the first $5 trillion company.
• Bill warns of a coming shakeout similar to the dotcom bust, with inflated valuations and debt-heavy investments posing systemic risks.

"They're not little companies. Guess what, Kara? That doesn't mean just because they're big now that they can't tumble and fall... when things go wrong, they go wrong." — Bill Cohen [06:38]

3. China’s AI and the “DeepSeek” Moment

[Timestamps: 06:51–09:08]

• DeepSeek, a Chinese open source AI firm, released a ChatGPT rival for a fraction of the cost, sparking hype—but didn't shift the U.S. competitive landscape.
• Joanna highlights that while startups are interested, American Fortune 200 companies stick with US models due to security and quality.
• Casey notes the security risks and lag behind frontier AI models.

"Nothing changed this year for the big AI companies in the US. I think the DeepSeek moment was a news headline that got us all to freak out about China." — Joanna Stern [07:23]

4. Data Centers: Building the Backbone of AI — and Controversy

[Timestamps: 09:08–11:13]

• Explosive growth in data center investment is driving real economic expansion, but sparking community backlash (NIMBYism), pollution challenges, and political battles.
• Anticipated demand is real, with companies like Anthropic jumping from $1B to $10B in projected revenue.
• Political ramifications: Trump’s open support versus local pushback.

"We're going to see the rise of a NIMBY movement next year on data centers... these are being built in anticipation of demand, and the demand is real." — Casey Newton [09:42]

5. Tech’s Benevolent Hostage Situation & Uncertain Payoffs

[Timestamps: 11:13–13:32]

• Charlie Warzel dubs the boom a "benevolent hostage situation" — the economy depends on continued tech investment, but the average person may see more job losses than gains.
• Despite hype, productivity benefits for ordinary people are still largely theoretical.

"For the average person, there's tons of creative uses... but in order for this to pay out at the kind of scale of the investment that's going into this industry, you are going to need to see some kind of disruption." — Charlie Warzel [11:35]

6. Tech’s New Cozy Relationship with Trump

[Timestamps: 13:32–18:35]

• Trump’s administration allied closely with Silicon Valley billionaires, offering industry-friendly policies amid public-and-private wheeling and dealing.
• Example: Allowing Nvidia to sell "second-best" chips to China for a 25% government cut.
• Government as major shareholder in Intel; industrial policy blends capitalism with "socialism."

"What's wrong with the US Government taking stakes in [big tech]? Which strikes me as socialism, communism... it doesn't feel very American to me." — Bill Cohen [14:12]
"If you ran Amazon or Google or Meta... Joe Biden was trying to break your company apart. Trump has been a breath of fresh air for people like Mark Zuckerberg." — Casey Newton [16:34]

• Executive orders blocked state-level AI regulation (questionably constitutional, likely to stall meaningful oversight).

7. The TikTok Ban That Wasn’t

[Timestamps: 18:35–21:02]

• After efforts to force the sale or app store ban, Trump simply ignored the law, issuing an executive order and sparking a precedent for overt political intervention.
• Oracle now in line for a stake; real national security worries are sidelined.

"It was the first thing that happened in the Trump administration... Trump just decided he was going to ignore [the law]... and he got away with it." — Casey Newton [20:17]

8. Corruption, Crypto, and Trump’s “Coin-Operated” Presidency

[Timestamps: 22:08–24:44]

• The Trump meme coin netted the Trump Organization over $800M in six months, fueling accusations of open corruption.
• Retail investors lost out in the meme coin hype; the winners were Trump and his associates.

"Is there a piece of technology more ripe for Donald Trump?... bitcoin is an instrument for graft." — Charlie Warzel [23:30]

9. Elon Musk: The Ultimate Antihero of 2025

[Timestamps: 28:06–41:44]

• Musk's year included disastrous political moves (Doge takeover, Nazi salutes, purging aid), and clashes with Trump.
• Tesla’s stock still soars, even as sales drop, thanks to robotaxi/AI hype and optimistic projections for its “Optimus” robots. SpaceX is prepping for a massive IPO.
• Musk’s Grok AI bot went rogue, producing anti-Semitic content (“Mecha Hitler” episode), revealing the challenge of “de-wokeifying” AI models.

"He goes in and he tries to adjust them and rewrite them and make them sort of more anti-woke, and this has reliably turned them into Hitler." — Casey Newton [31:01]

• X (formerly Twitter) rolled out location transparency, causing minor upsets but reinforcing that much of the Internet is fake or manipulated by overseas players.
• Despite Twitter becoming a “worthless poisoned hall of mirrors,” it still deeply influences US elite culture and media narratives.

10. 2026: Predictions & What’s Next

[Timestamps: 45:10–61:59]

Upcoming IPOs

• Massive IPOs for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are coming, expected to be high-valuation, high-hype, and revealing about the true health of the tech economy.
• SpaceX (Starlink) is seen as the most promising real business among the group.
• Anthropic’s story includes Sam Bankman-Fried’s early, almost forgotten, prescient investment.

Media Megamergers

• Potential mergers/acquisitions: Netflix-Paramount-Warner Bros., Ellison-backed bidders versus Netflix’s own plans.
• Growing critique about tech’s takeover of classic “creativity” industries and the consumer’s shrinking choices.

Robotics

• Joanna’s forthcoming home robot test (1X Neo) signals a new era of humanoid bots entering beta homes — mostly still puppeted remotely but collecting crucial real-world data.
• Dystopian implications abound as privacy, usefulness, and PR stunts intersect.

Social Media & Kids

• Australia became first to ban social media for under-16s; more countries expected to follow.
• US likely won’t follow due to First Amendment, but pressure will increase as tech’s past negligence comes home to roost.

Disney, AI & Copyright

• Disney’s $1B investment and licensing deal with OpenAI/Sora is a proof-of-concept; more major media companies to follow, despite artist backlash and brand safety issues.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "You know, this is a chatbot that is trained on the Internet ... he tries to de-wokify them, and this has reliably turned them into Hitler. I do think that's funny, unfortunately." — Casey Newton on Grok's meltdown [31:01]

• "Trump has been fabulous for tech CEOs. All those bros who put on suits and lined up behind him at the inauguration ... They are rich as Croesus. Of course they're loving Trump." — Bill Cohen [20:55]

• "I don't know if the crypto bros are that happy with Donald Trump right now... nobody made money except for the Trumps and World Liberty Financial." — Charlie Warzel [23:28]

• "X is going to be the place for people who are obsessed with it... the political elites, tech elites, the people building all the AI tools... It still has this outsized influence in our discourse." — Charlie Warzel [36:22]

• "Joanna's household robot is going to quit due to the toxic work environment." — Casey Newton’s 2026 prediction [60:26]

• "We're going to see a big backlash — scrolling and phone backlash ... and potentially an AI populist backlash if the economy goes south and the government backstops AI companies." — Charlie Warzel [61:10]

Key Segment Timestamps

• [03:26] - Guests choose one word for 2025 in tech
• [04:27] - The AI bubble and "Magnificent Seven"
• [06:51] - DeepSeek and the US-China AI race
• [09:08] - Data center buildout & political implications
• [13:32] - Tech’s relationship with the Trump Administration
• [18:35] - TikTok ban drama and political maneuvering
• [22:08] - Crypto, meme coins, and Trump’s “kickbacks”
• [28:06] - Elon Musk’s wild year, Grok controversy
• [36:09] - The role and decline of X (Twitter)
• [45:21] - 2026: IPO and M&A predictions
• [53:23] - Robotics in the home; beta testing and privacy
• [55:17] - Global movement to ban kids from social media
• [56:45] - Disney’s AI licensing deal and creator backlash
• [58:36] - Panelists' top tech predictions for 2026
• [62:14] - Who will matter most in 2026? (Key people to watch)

2026 Predictions (by guest):

Bill Cohen: Tech bros will finally fall out of favor with both politicians and the public.

Joanna Stern:

• Apple will launch a $2,500 foldable iPhone — "people will freak out, then realize it's just fine."
• An increased risk of a high-profile Waymo crash as driverless cars spread.

Casey Newton:

• Joanna's home robot will resign.
• The AI bubble will not pop significantly; Frontier AI labs' valuations and revenues will only rise.

Charlie Warzel:

• Rising backlash against phone addiction and possibly AI if the economy stumbles; potential for populist anger against pro-tech policies.

Who's Hot for 2026?

• Charlie: Jokingly, Jeffrey Epstein (“We may finally see the files”).
• Casey: Fiji Simo (CEO of Apps at OpenAI, ex-Facebook) — “has a lot of responsibilities that used to belong to Sam Altman.”
• Joanna: Tim Cook — His future at Apple (including whether he steps down) will be key as Apple races to catch up in AI.
• Bill: Hakeem Jeffries — If Democrats retake the House, expect a new dynamic for tech in Washington.

Final Thoughts & Tone

The episode is marked by dry wit, skepticism, and a clear-eyed (sometimes cynical) view of the tech industry's power, its political alliances, and its cycles of hype and excess. The guests consistently question who benefits, who is at risk, and whether the big bets on AI and automation will pay off for anyone beyond a narrow layer of tech and finance elites.

Swisher's closing snap:

"How can we miss them if they won't go away?" [58:57]

For newcomers, this episode is a pithy, barbed rundown of what really mattered in tech in 2025, who won, who lost, who got richer (and who felt left behind)—and sets the stage for a potentially even wilder 2026.