Podcast Summary: Part of the Problem — "Scott Horton on Iran"

Host: Dave Smith (GaS Digital Network)
Guest: Scott Horton (Antiwar.com, Scott Horton Show, "Provoked")
Date: March 12, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode features Dave Smith in conversation with preeminent foreign policy analyst Scott Horton, focusing on the recent U.S.-Iran war. They analyze the origins, miscalculations, and potential consequences of the conflict, both in terms of foreign policy and domestic discourse. Horton’s expertise provides a historical backdrop, while Smith interrogates the choices and reasoning behind current events, critiquing both mainstream narratives and the political class driving U.S. war policy.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Libertarian Debates and the Trump Vote

• Dave’s Pre-Show Reflection: Smith opens with reflections on intra-activist disputes over his 2024 Trump vote, emphasizing unity against war over political purity.
• Quote (Dave Smith, 06:18):

  "Why wouldn't you want the most influential guy in the country to be against this thing right now? Like, I just...I don't know, man."

• Horton's Take: Scott suggests that being a "former Trump supporter" against the war actually has greater persuasive power, noting how opposition voices evolve for more impact.
• Timestamp: [07:48–10:48]

2. The Dilemma of Presidential Choices

• Horton’s Defense of Voters: Scott defends people who voted Trump as a "lesser of evils" situation, especially to "keep the other guys out." He refuses to judge individuals harshly for electoral choices given limited, imperfect alternatives.
• Quote (Scott Horton, 12:30):

  "I, I don't blame anybody for voting for Trump and especially when it comes to keeping the other guys out."

3. Trump's Foreign Policy — Track Record and Recklessness

• Violence in the First Term: Horton recounts all the ongoing wars and operations under Trump, challenging the idea that his violent tendencies were new or unpredictable.
• Scott's Analysis: Trump continued wars in Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, and ruthlessly finished off ISIS in Iraq. He also empowered neoconservatives, especially due to his "fatal flaw" of being a Zionist, linking U.S. foreign policy to Israeli priorities.
• Quote (Scott Horton, 10:13):

  "As long as he's a Zionist, then he's taken us to war and more...He might as well have Paul Wolfowitz as his chief of staff and...National Security Advisor."

4. The Evolution of U.S. Policy Toward Iran

• Historical Precedents:
  • 2007-08: Scott details the intense Bush administration push for war with Iran, thwarted by U.S. intelligence and military concerns about "escalation dominance."
  • Lie Factory: The fabrication of Iranian culpability (e.g., EFP IEDs in Iraq) echoes today’s pretext-building for war.
• Critical Quote (Scott Horton, 18:58):

  "We would not have escalation dominance. Which means their idea that they would control every stage of the war...It's all on them to decide what happens next in the war. The other guys are only ever reacting to us. They don't want to fight unless it's that unfair of a fight. And they're saying it won't be. They will be able to reach out and touch us."

• Timestamps: [18:58–29:00]
• Current Application: Despite earlier wisdom, Trump "ignored every bit of this advice," leading to massive damage without a clear plan.

5. Human Cost: Atrocities and Atrocity Denial

• The Tehran Girls’ School Bombing: Both hosts discuss the devastating Tomahawk strike that killed over 170 Iranian girls—the "Oklahoma City bombing of Iran."
• Dave’s Condemnation:

  "I mean it does seem to me to be just up there with the, the, one of the most truly despicable things that I've ever seen a president do..." ([35:00])

• Scott on American Culpability: Likens American reactions to historical tragedies—Pearl Harbor’s effect on the American psyche as compared to the Tehran massacre.
• Quote (Scott Horton, 37:26):

  "Think about what that means to them...If the Oklahoma building had been all daycare."

• Timestamps: [33:49–39:55]

6. Escalation Risks: Shiite Holy War and Blowback

• Scott’s Big Fear: Horton warns of a potential call to holy war from influential Ayatollah Sistani, which could mobilize millions.
• Soft Targets: America and the West are full of soft targets, warning of catastrophic potential if a religiously motivated war is declared.
• Quote (Scott Horton, 42:47):

  "Ayatollah Sistani could say, if you believe in God, you have to fight. And there would be potentially tens of millions of people at war with the United States and including, you know, American targets in the West..."

7. No Apparent Post-Regime Plan — Libya, Iraq, and Exile Politics

• No Ground Game: Unlike Libya or Syria, there is no viable indigenous force for the U.S. to support in Iran—the regime-collapse strategy seems destitute.
• Danger of Exile Agendas: The discussion highlights the fallacy of listening to exiles (e.g., the Shah’s son, Chalabi in Iraq) — they rarely speak for the insurgent masses or predict political reality.
• Scott’s Historical Reference:

  "Do not listen to exiles when they tell you and agitate against their former country..." (Citing Machiavelli, 61:17)

• Timestamps: [53:39–64:33]

8. Policy Amnesia and the “Crystal Ball” Problem

• Repeat Catastrophes: Both hosts underscore that disasters like Iraq occur not from mere chance, but from predictable dynamics (blowback, power vacuums), ignored by policymakers with no "crystal ball."
• Quote (Scott Horton, 67:08):

  "Violent and destructive means determine violent and destructive ends..."

9. Public Opinion and Political Fallout

• Collapse of MAGA Support: The war's incoherence and the heavy hand of Israeli interests have alienated much of Trump’s base, with polls showing a rapid shift against him.
• Quote (Dave Smith, 72:16):

  "This is...the worst, most incoherent sales pitch for any of them. Like, literally for any of them...they're not even trying."

• Timestamps: [72:16–74:28]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the mass bombing of Iranian girls:
  "It's the same thing here...these are some big things you can't take back. That time you started a surprise sneak attack...and killed almost 200 little girls on the opening night. Jesus, man."
  — Scott Horton [39:29]

• On the lack of planning:
  "You launch a war of choice, a war of aggression. Not only do you not have a crystal ball, you're openly admitting you don’t even have a plan."
  — Dave Smith [69:36]

• On regime change insanity:
  "They're just throwing darts in the dark on a massive country the size of a couple of Texases, mountains and armed men."
  — Scott Horton [68:11]

• On the exile-grifter dynamic:
  "The deal was always like, no, we were just, we were supposed to try to have some liberty over here… not convince us to go to war with the country that you're from..."
  — Dave Smith [57:10]

Important Segments (with Timestamps)

• 06:18 — Dave discusses unity against war vs. purist litmus tests post-Trump vote
• 10:13–14:05 — Scott's summary of Trump’s record and deep roots of his foreign policy
• 18:58–29:00 — The build-up to and logic of the 2026 Iran war; lessons unheeded
• 33:49–39:55 — The girls' school bombing, atrocity denial, and its historical implications
• 42:47–47:50 — Possibility and stakes of a Shiite "holy war"
• 53:39–61:17 — Inadequacy of regime change scenarios; exile politics; no "hammer and anvil"
• 67:08–69:36 — The "crystal ball" problem; why catastrophe is predictable
• 72:16–74:28 — Collapse of pro-war support, Israel’s role, and political consequences for Trump

Final Thoughts and Resources

• Despite Scott Horton's decades of activism, he expresses grief that his efforts—like many others'—couldn’t prevent this avoidable war.
• Scott’s educational resource:

  "We’re going to go ahead and post the Iran section of my course from the Scott Horton Academy at thefactsaboutiran.com." [74:28]

Dave closes by recommending Scott’s work ("Scott Horton Show," "Provoked," Antiwar.com, Libertarian Institute, and Scott Horton Academy) as vital for anyone seeking clear, fact-based analysis free from partisan or imperial spin.

Tone: Direct, passionate, and unsparing in criticism of U.S. policy, with a focus on historical context and antiwar principle—characteristic of both Dave Smith and Scott Horton.

For listeners seeking analysis beyond the headlines, this episode serves as a vital, sobering account of how easily U.S. foreign policy wheels can spin toward disaster—and the tragic human and political costs that follow.