A surprising turn in Syria's civil war

Summary

Post Reports: A Surprising Turn in Syria's Civil War

Published on December 4, 2024 by The Washington Post

Hosts: Martine Powers and Elahe Izadi
Guest: Karim Fahim, Middle East Bureau Chief for The Washington Post

---

Introduction to the Unexpected Offensive

In the latest episode of Post Reports, hosts Elahe Izadi and Martine Powers delve into a significant development in Syria's protracted civil war. The episode, released on December 4, 2024, centers around a surprising offensive by armed Islamist rebels in the northern city of Aleppo—a breach not seen in eight years.

Elahe Izadi opens the discussion by highlighting the extraordinary events:
"Starting last week, something extraordinary happened in Syria. Armed Islamist rebels celebrated as they swept into one of Syria's largest cities." (00:03)

Karim Fahim elaborates on the magnitude of this advancement:
"Syrian rebels have launched a lightning offensive against the regime of Bashar Al Assad, entering the northern city of Aleppo itself for the first time in eight years." (00:19)

Historical Context and Significance

Elahe Izadi provides background on the longevity and weariness of the Syrian civil war:
"The civil war in Syria has dragged on for 13 years. This is the most successful push by the rebels in a very long time. And this scene surprised everyone who's been following the conflict." (00:30)

Karim Fahim emphasizes the unexpected rapid advancement:
"The front lines in the Syrian civil war have been frozen for many years, and to see the rebels advance that quickly was shocking, I think, to those of us who have been watching and also to the rebels themselves." (00:51)

Origins of the Conflict

To understand the current dynamics, Fahim traces the conflict's roots back to the Arab Spring uprisings:
"The revolt in Syria was part of the uprisings that were spreading around the Arab world in 2011... President Bashar Al Assad's government harshly cracked down on the protests. By the end of 2011, there were some of the first armed groups organizing to fight back against the government, transforming it into a multi-sided civil conflict." (02:23)

Current State of the War and International Attention

The hosts discuss the prolonged conflict's dwindling attention both internationally and among Syrians themselves. Fahim notes:
"People only pay attention when events like those that occurred over the last few days happen, when front lines light up again, when there's fighting, when extremist groups threaten parts of the country." (03:26)

The Offensive on Aleppo: Players and Motivations

Elahe Izadi probes into the significance of Aleppo:
"Aleppo was the largest city before the war. It was the economic hub of Syria, and it's been under the government's control for eight years." (04:11)

Karim Fahim identifies the key rebel group involved:
"The group that led the charge into Aleppo is called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It's one of the most powerful insurgent factions, previously affiliated with Al Qaeda until around 2016, when it distanced itself to focus on local organization." (04:33)
"HTS has been designated as a terrorist organization by the US." (05:26)

HTS’s Strategy and Capabilities

Fahim discusses HTS's strategic shifts:
"HTS is engaged in a forceful effort to paint itself as something different than it was, something different than an extremist jihadist group, by setting up a fledgling government in the areas it controls." (05:47)

The group's ability to seize Aleppo swiftly is attributed to a combination of preparedness and weakening of Assad’s forces:
"There was a collision of circumstances that allowed this to happen... HTS had been organizing with military academies and procuring weapons, while Iranian groups and Hezbollah were weakening." (07:17)

Assad’s Response and International Implications

In response to the rebel advance, Fahim outlines Assad’s actions:
"The government has sent reinforcements to bolster the army... Both Syria and Russia have carried out airstrikes in opposition-held areas, hitting civilian areas and hospitals." (08:56)
"Iran, preoccupied with Hezbollah's struggles in Lebanon, may have limited capacity to support Assad further." (09:00)

He also touches upon Russia’s strained resources due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine:
"Russia has a lot on its hands with the war in Ukraine, raising questions about its ability to support Assad effectively in the short term." (10:13)

US Involvement and Potential Policy Shifts

The discussion shifts to the United States' stance on the Syrian conflict. Fahim explains:
"The US has designated HTS as a terrorist group and has kept troops in Syria to combat ISIS and counter Russian and Iranian influence." (12:42)

With Donald Trump set to take office, there’s speculation about possible US policy changes:
"During his first term, Trump attempted to withdraw US troops from Syria and has expressed opposition to 'endless wars.' However, he also conducted strikes against the Syrian government, indicating mixed tendencies." (13:41)

Broader Implications and Future Outlook

As the episode wraps up, Fahim reflects on the offensive's implications:
"This offensive forces a reckoning with the unresolved war, highlighting the desperate need for a resolution for millions suffering both in Syria and as refugees." (14:59)
"The conflict remains a battleground for regional and international interests, with no clear end in sight." (15:00)

---

Conclusion

The Post Reports episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the latest developments in Syria’s civil war, emphasizing the unexpected rebel advance in Aleppo and its broader ramifications. Through expert insights from Karim Fahim, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between local factions and international powers shaping the future of Syria.

Notable Quotes:

• "The front lines in the Syrian civil war have been frozen for many years, and to see the rebels advance that quickly was shocking." — Karim Fahim (00:51)

• "HTS is engaged in a forceful effort to paint itself as something different than it was." — Karim Fahim (05:47)

• "This offensive forces a reckoning with the unresolved war, highlighting the desperate need for a resolution." — Karim Fahim (14:59)

---

Produced by: Peter Bresnan, Sabi Robinson, Ariel Plotnick, Rennie Srinofsky
Editing: Monica Campbell, Justin Gerrish
Mixed by: Monica Campbell
Additional Contributions: Allison McAdam, Rena Flores, Lucy Perkins
Thanks to: Jesse Messnerhage

---

For more detailed reporting on Syria and other global issues, subscribe to Post Reports and stay informed with The Washington Post’s unparalleled journalism.

Transcript

[Elahe Izadi]

Starting last week, something extraordinary happened in Syria. Armed Islamist rebels celebrated as they swept into one of Syria's largest cities.

[Karim Fahim]

Syrian rebels have launched a lightning offensive against the regime of Bashar Al Assad. Entering the northern city of Aleppo itself for the first, first time in eight.

[Elahe Izadi]

Years, the rebels roamed the streets, chanting and tearing down posters of President Assad. The civil war in Syria has dragged on for 13 years. This is the most successful push by the rebels in a very long time. And this scene surprised everyone who's been following the conflict.

[Karim Fahim]

It was pretty stunning. These front lines in the Syrian civil war have been frozen for many years and, and to see the rebels advance that quickly was shocking, I think, to those of us who have been watching and also to the rebels themselves, who are not expecting to get as far as quickly as they did.

[Elahe Izadi]

Karim Fahim is the Middle East Bureau Chief for the Post, based in Istanbul. And he says this development is an important moment in Syria's civil war.

[Karim Fahim]

Millions of Syrian lives have been upended during this war. The fighting has drawn in foreign governments, including the United States, Russia and Iran. Millions of refugees have spilled over the borders. The outcome of the conflict is hugely important.

[Elahe Izadi]

From the newsroom of the Washington Post, this is Post Reports. I'm Elahe izadi. It's Wednesday, December 4th. Today, the Syrian civil war reignites what that could mean for the Syrian people and for the major foreign powers involved, Russia, Iran and the United States. Karim, we're gonna get back to what's happening in Aleppo right now in a moment, but first, can you take us back to the origins of this conflict? And I'm thinking before the civil war began in 2011, when we saw a lot of protests. Can you tell me about that?

[Karim Fahim]

The revolt in Syria was part of the uprisings that were spreading around the Arab world in 2011, and in some ways looked very similar to those protests. It started in the south, it spread to rural areas, and before long there were sort of millions of people marching in the streets of various cities. President Bashar Al Assad's government harshly cracked down on the protests. And by the end of 2011, when I visited Syria, I was seeing some of the first armed groups organizing to fight back against the government. And from there it transformed into a multi sided civil conflict.

[Elahe Izadi]

And so this war, this civil war has been going on for so long, for 13 years now. And Karim, I know you've been covering this region for years. Like you said, you've been to Syria and you've been watching Syria all along, but this is A conflict that, I don't know. I feel like a lot of people, at least in the west, have stopped paying attention to. Is that the sense that you have as well?

[Karim Fahim]

Absolutely. And that's definitely the sense many Syrians have as well. The people only pay attention when events like those that occurred over the last few days happen, when front lines light up again, when there's fighting, when extremist groups threaten parts of the country. And that people have ignored the sort of fractured state of Syria, this unresolved war, and the plight of millions of people. And unfortunately, we're all guilty of not paying close enough attention for enough of the time.

[Elahe Izadi]

And Karim, when we do think about what happened over the weekend, the fact that this rebel group went into Aleppo. What's the significance of going into Aleppo and being successful there?

[Karim Fahim]

Well, for one thing, I mean, it's a hugely important Syrian city. It was the largest city before the war. It was the economic hub of Syria, and it's been under the government's control for eight years.

[Elahe Izadi]

And so, Karim, can you tell me more about the group that pushed into Aleppo and retaken this major city? Who are they and what do they want?

[Karim Fahim]

So the group that led the charge into Aleppo is called Hayed Tahrir Shem. It's one of the most powerful insurgent factions and the organizer of this offensive. It's a group that's been present since pretty much the beginning of the civil war in Syria. It's existed under different names. It was an affiliate of the global extremist group Al Qaeda until some years ago. The US has also designated hts, as it's sometimes called, as a terrorist organization. And then in about 2016, 2017, it distanced itself from Al Qaeda and renounced this idea of sort of global jihad and said it was focusing on local organization.

[Elahe Izadi]

What does that mean, local organization? Because, you know, saying that they were once affiliated with Al Qaeda and then distance itself from that organization. Does HTS have any sort of principles that it's trying to promote at this point? Are they trying to promote a particular worldview or anything? Or is it really just trying to wrest control from the Assad regime in Syria?

[Karim Fahim]

I mean, I think both. I mean, I think it's probably sees these efforts at local self government as a means to that end, and the end is overthrowing the government. And, you know, people will debate about what its other sort of priorities are. All those questions about its character are sort of hotly debated and intensely watched. And for its part, it's engaged in this really forceful effort to paint itself as something different than it was, something different than sort of an extremist jihadist group. And it's done this by in a number of ways, including setting up this fledgling government in the areas that it controls. Whether that means that the nature of the group and its members has changed, I think is very much an open one and affects the way people in these previously government controlled areas will perceive them as they come into their areas.

[Elahe Izadi]

I see. So how is it that this group, hts, was able to lead the charge and take control of a major city in Syria almost overnight, given the Assad government also has these, like, major backers in Russia and Iran back Hezbollah? How do they do this?

[Karim Fahim]

It's a great question. I mean, people who have been watching very closely say there was just a collision of circumstances that allowed this to happen and that this actually wasn't their first time sort of planning this kind of offensive. But for a number of reasons, the timing wasn't exactly right. It was planned for some months ago. But I guess a couple of factors stand out. And again, this is from people who watch HTs sort of closely say that their attempts at organization were real and productive. And they included things like building a military academy and, you know, other efforts at procuring weapons or developing weapons system that made them sort of more effective and organized as a fighting force. At the same time, there is this steady weakening of Iranian groups and Hezbollah in Syria obviously, as well as in Lebanon. And then in general, there's this idea of the overall weakening of the Syrian army, which is a process that has been ongoing for many, many years. You know, the Bashar Al Assad's government is very isolated, it's under sanctions. And so the military really only had the ability to sort of stoutly defend some parts of the country. And people who watch Syria closely say Aleppo was a place that they largely sort of outsourced to others.

[Elahe Izadi]

So how has Assad and his allies responded to this challenge from hts?

[Karim Fahim]

I mean, they seem to have responded very forcefully. The government has sent reinforcements to bolster the army at one of the front lines in the central city of Hama. Both Syria and Russia have carried out airstrikes in opposition held areas. These airstrikes have hit civilian areas, hospitals. Today they hit a group of journalists who were trying to report near the front lines. The Syrian army has promised an even more forceful response. It's claimed to have killed hundreds of insurgents during the past few days. So it's clear that it's no longer retreating as it did in the initial days of the offensive. Iran, of course, has a lot on its hands right now. Its most important regional ally, Hezbollah, has suffered severe blows because of an Israeli offensive in Lebanon over the last few months. And so we're fairly sure that the Iranians are weighing the degree to which they have the capacity to commit additional assets to Syria.

[Elahe Izadi]

And Russia also seems like it has a lot on its hands right now with the war in Ukraine, too. Right.

[Karim Fahim]

Russia does have a lot on its hands. And so there's a question about whether this area that the Syrian government has lost is a loss they could tolerate sort of in the short term while they sort of figured out a strategy or whether, you know, what happened in previous years when a major offensive was followed by some freezing of the lines and the war quieting down until the next sort of outbreak could be what we're in for. I think at this point, it's too soon to tell.

[Elahe Izadi]

After the break how the US Is handling the Syrian civil war and whether that could change when Donald Trump takes office. We'll be right back. Karim, it's so fascinating hearing you talk about what we're calling a civil war because I've heard so many different country names and other parties and groups connected to what's happening within Syria. And it almost sounds like the civil war in Syria, could it be viewed as a proxy for all of these varied interests around the world? Is that one way to look at this?

[Karim Fahim]

I mean, I think it absolutely has elements of a proxy war and there are absolutely a lot of different players involved and have been at various stages of the war. Iran and Russia are the Syrian government's main allies. They have different reasons for being involved in the conflict and ensuring that their sort of interests are met. Turkey, on the other side, has interests that include preventing millions of refugees from flowing over its border and its strong push to keep these US Backed Kurdish fighters also away from its southern border. And so Turkey has sought to create a buffer zone inside of Syria free from those fighters.

[Elahe Izadi]

And Karim, where does the United States stand in relation to hts, this rebel group that has made advances at least taking Aleppo?

[Karim Fahim]

The United States has designated HTS as a terrorist group. And in the broader context of the war, sort of early in the conflict, the US Supported rebel groups in Syria, but I think more recently it's treated the conflict as a thing to be contained rather than solved. You know, it opposes Bashar al Assad's government, including by imposing strict sanctions on his government, but has not seemed very interested in any of the alternatives to his rule. The US Keeps troops in Syria to fight the Islamic State militant group, which still has a presence in the country. But those troops are also there as part of this effort to counter and check Russia and Iran.

[Elahe Izadi]

Hmm. What about Donald Trump, the president elect? Could we expect to see, or what do you expect could change in US Policy on Syria when he takes office?

[Karim Fahim]

Well, during the first Trump administration, he tried to remove US Troops from Syria. At the time, I think there were 2,500 troops or something like that, and he tried to withdraw them and ended up leaving this smaller force. But, I mean, Trump has talked about his opposition to what he calls this policy of endless wars that the US Is engaged in. And so I think a lot of people in the region expect that he would try to follow through with the policy that he pursued during his first term. Trump also carried out strikes against the Syrian government. So, you know, he has these sort of dueling tendencies.

[Elahe Izadi]

Mm. Karim, just stepping back and thinking about this seemingly shocking development, it felt like in this ongoing conflict in Syria, in the civil war, that HTS was able to take this city, regardless of whether the Assad regime is able to take back the city or tamp down this advancement. The fact that this group was able to do this, what is your big takeaway of, you know, this moment in this ongoing conflict in the civil war? Does it tell you?

[Karim Fahim]

Again, I think it's just providing another one of these moments where some of the longstanding unresolved questions about the war and its persistence have come back to the fore. You know, there are millions of people who are waiting for a resolution to this conflict. They include people living in miserable conditions in the opposition areas that HTS started its offensive from. They include millions of refugees, including here, where I am in Turkey, where they feel increasingly unwelcome. You know, there remains this important split in the region and beyond about whether to rehabilitate the Assad government or whether to keep him at arm's distance or do something else. And the conflict only ever seems to become urgent when major events happen and prompt, you know, global worry that the war will spill over its borders. So I think the offensive is just another moment where people are being forced to reckon with the war and unfortunately, I think not for the last time before it gets resolved.

[Elahe Izadi]

Well, Kareem, thank you so much for taking time to explain all this. I really appreciate it.

[Karim Fahim]

Thank you for having me.

[Elahe Izadi]

Karim Fahim is the Middle east bureau chief. The Post. Before I go, I wanted to share two more stories with you. First, the CEO of one of the largest health insurers in the US Was killed Wednesday morning in New York City. Brian Thompson was the 50 year old chief executive of UnitedHealthcare. He was fatally shot in front of the New York Hilton Midtown. At a midday news conference, New York's Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said that this appeared to be a brazen targeted attack.

[Jessica Tisch]

This does not appear to be a random act of violence. The victim was in New York City to speak at an investor conference. It appears the suspect was lying in wait for several minutes and as the victim was walking to the conference hotel, the suspect approached from behind and fired several rounds, striking the victim at least once in the back and at least once in the right calf. Many people passed the suspect, but he appeared to wait for his intended target.

[Elahe Izadi]

The shooting happened on the morning of UnitedHealthcare's annual investor conference. This is a colossal health insurance company. It's part of a larger one called UnitedHealth Group. And UnitedHealth Group is one of the country's five largest companies by revenue. You can read the latest about this attack and alleged [e-mail] and the Washington Post is continuing to track President Elect Donald Trump's Cabinet picks for his new administration. On Wednesday, the Post reported that Trump is privately rethinking his choice for defense secretary. His first pick, Pete Hagseth, may run into trouble getting confirmed. The former Fox News host and military veteran is facing skepticism from senators over his qualifications for the job, and he also has allegations of sexual misconduct, excessive drinking and mismanagement. Hexeath denies those allegations. According to reporting from my Post colleagues, Trump is now considering replacing Hegseth with some other Republicans. The list includes Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Florida Congressman Michael Waltz. DeSantis especially stands out because he's Trump's former primary rival. That's it for Post Reports. Thanks for listening. Today's show was produced by Peter Bresnan with help from Sabi Robinson, Ariel Plotnick and Rennie Srinofsky. It was mixed by Justin Gerrish and edited by Monica Campbell with help from Allison McAdam, Rena Flores and Lucy Perkins. Thanks to Jesse Messnerhage. I'm Elahe Izadi. We'll be back tomorrow with more stories from the Washington Post.