Post Reports: A Surprising Turn in Syria's Civil War

Published on December 4, 2024 by The Washington Post

Hosts: Martine Powers and Elahe Izadi
Guest: Karim Fahim, Middle East Bureau Chief for The Washington Post

Introduction to the Unexpected Offensive

In the latest episode of Post Reports, hosts Elahe Izadi and Martine Powers delve into a significant development in Syria's protracted civil war. The episode, released on December 4, 2024, centers around a surprising offensive by armed Islamist rebels in the northern city of Aleppo—a breach not seen in eight years.

Elahe Izadi opens the discussion by highlighting the extraordinary events:
"Starting last week, something extraordinary happened in Syria. Armed Islamist rebels celebrated as they swept into one of Syria's largest cities." (00:03)

Karim Fahim elaborates on the magnitude of this advancement:
"Syrian rebels have launched a lightning offensive against the regime of Bashar Al Assad, entering the northern city of Aleppo itself for the first time in eight years." (00:19)

Historical Context and Significance

Elahe Izadi provides background on the longevity and weariness of the Syrian civil war:
"The civil war in Syria has dragged on for 13 years. This is the most successful push by the rebels in a very long time. And this scene surprised everyone who's been following the conflict." (00:30)

Karim Fahim emphasizes the unexpected rapid advancement:
"The front lines in the Syrian civil war have been frozen for many years, and to see the rebels advance that quickly was shocking, I think, to those of us who have been watching and also to the rebels themselves." (00:51)

Origins of the Conflict

To understand the current dynamics, Fahim traces the conflict's roots back to the Arab Spring uprisings:
"The revolt in Syria was part of the uprisings that were spreading around the Arab world in 2011... President Bashar Al Assad's government harshly cracked down on the protests. By the end of 2011, there were some of the first armed groups organizing to fight back against the government, transforming it into a multi-sided civil conflict." (02:23)

Current State of the War and International Attention

The hosts discuss the prolonged conflict's dwindling attention both internationally and among Syrians themselves. Fahim notes:
"People only pay attention when events like those that occurred over the last few days happen, when front lines light up again, when there's fighting, when extremist groups threaten parts of the country." (03:26)

The Offensive on Aleppo: Players and Motivations

Elahe Izadi probes into the significance of Aleppo:
"Aleppo was the largest city before the war. It was the economic hub of Syria, and it's been under the government's control for eight years." (04:11)

Karim Fahim identifies the key rebel group involved:
"The group that led the charge into Aleppo is called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It's one of the most powerful insurgent factions, previously affiliated with Al Qaeda until around 2016, when it distanced itself to focus on local organization." (04:33)
"HTS has been designated as a terrorist organization by the US." (05:26)

HTS’s Strategy and Capabilities

Fahim discusses HTS's strategic shifts:
"HTS is engaged in a forceful effort to paint itself as something different than it was, something different than an extremist jihadist group, by setting up a fledgling government in the areas it controls." (05:47)

The group's ability to seize Aleppo swiftly is attributed to a combination of preparedness and weakening of Assad’s forces:
"There was a collision of circumstances that allowed this to happen... HTS had been organizing with military academies and procuring weapons, while Iranian groups and Hezbollah were weakening." (07:17)

Assad’s Response and International Implications

In response to the rebel advance, Fahim outlines Assad’s actions:
"The government has sent reinforcements to bolster the army... Both Syria and Russia have carried out airstrikes in opposition-held areas, hitting civilian areas and hospitals." (08:56)
"Iran, preoccupied with Hezbollah's struggles in Lebanon, may have limited capacity to support Assad further." (09:00)

He also touches upon Russia’s strained resources due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine:
"Russia has a lot on its hands with the war in Ukraine, raising questions about its ability to support Assad effectively in the short term." (10:13)

US Involvement and Potential Policy Shifts

The discussion shifts to the United States' stance on the Syrian conflict. Fahim explains:
"The US has designated HTS as a terrorist group and has kept troops in Syria to combat ISIS and counter Russian and Iranian influence." (12:42)

With Donald Trump set to take office, there’s speculation about possible US policy changes:
"During his first term, Trump attempted to withdraw US troops from Syria and has expressed opposition to 'endless wars.' However, he also conducted strikes against the Syrian government, indicating mixed tendencies." (13:41)

Broader Implications and Future Outlook

As the episode wraps up, Fahim reflects on the offensive's implications:
"This offensive forces a reckoning with the unresolved war, highlighting the desperate need for a resolution for millions suffering both in Syria and as refugees." (14:59)
"The conflict remains a battleground for regional and international interests, with no clear end in sight." (15:00)

Conclusion

The Post Reports episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the latest developments in Syria’s civil war, emphasizing the unexpected rebel advance in Aleppo and its broader ramifications. Through expert insights from Karim Fahim, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between local factions and international powers shaping the future of Syria.

Notable Quotes:

• "The front lines in the Syrian civil war have been frozen for many years, and to see the rebels advance that quickly was shocking." — Karim Fahim (00:51)

• "HTS is engaged in a forceful effort to paint itself as something different than it was." — Karim Fahim (05:47)

• "This offensive forces a reckoning with the unresolved war, highlighting the desperate need for a resolution." — Karim Fahim (14:59)

Produced by: Peter Bresnan, Sabi Robinson, Ariel Plotnick, Rennie Srinofsky
Editing: Monica Campbell, Justin Gerrish
Mixed by: Monica Campbell
Additional Contributions: Allison McAdam, Rena Flores, Lucy Perkins
Thanks to: Jesse Messnerhage

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