Could a government shutdown benefit Trump?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Post Reports

Episode: Could a government shutdown benefit Trump?

Date: September 26, 2025
Host: Colby Itkowitz
Guests: Jacob Bogage (White House Economic Policy Correspondent), Dan Marica (Co-anchor, Early Brief newsletter)

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Overview

This episode of Post Reports tackles the high-stakes brinkmanship in Washington over a possible government shutdown. With former President Trump back in the White House and the government again at risk of halting, the guests discuss the altered political landscape, shifting party strategies, how the shutdown fight could affect ordinary Americans, and the implications for Democrats, Trump, and the upcoming elections. The conversation dives into the complexities of budget negotiations, messaging battles, and the practical and political impact of mass federal layoffs threatened by the Trump administration.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Shutdown Fatigue and Political Choreography

• The panel highlights the almost ritualistic nature of shutdown threats in Washington, with locals and even businesses having learned to expect and plan around them.
  • Memorable Quote:
    “There are bars downtown who plan drink specials around government shutdowns. I mean, this is pretty dark. It’s choreographed and it is so immensely stupid.”
    — Dan Marica [00:46]

2. Why Are We Here Again?

• Explanation of the budget process and the chronic use of "continuing resolutions" as a temporary fix instead of passing budgets.
  • Quote:
    “A continuing resolution is often referred to in Washington as kicking the can down the road... Congress has kicked the can down the road so often that it’s become the norm.”
    — Dan Marica [02:53-03:09]
• Current gridlock is especially acute, as Democrats attempt to extract concessions from Republicans, particularly on health care subsidies, while navigating a hostile White House.

3. Trump’s Leverage and the Democrats’ Bind

• With Trump’s administration in control, any shutdown could allow the White House to decide which government functions continue, giving Trump unprecedented latitude.
• Democrats face the dilemma of either cooperating to keep the government running (and ceding ground) or risking a shutdown to deny Trump discretionary powers.
  • Quote:
    “It would be a worse outcome to shut down the government and give them more discretion than it would be to fund the government and hold them accountable for their decisions.”
    — Jacob Bogage, paraphrasing Chuck Schumer [05:13]

4. Democrats’ Messaging: Making the Shutdown About Healthcare

• Democrats’ main demand: maintain Biden-era subsidies to keep health care premiums low, a politically tough ask for Republicans.
• If premiums spike, voters will feel it immediately, creating risk for the GOP.
  • Quote:
    “If Democrats are able to convey that message, that Republicans want to shut down the government because they don’t want to make your health care premiums lower, that’s a pretty potent message.”
    — Dan Marica [08:08]
• Uncertainty exists over whether Democrats can deliver that message effectively.

5. Trump Administration’s Threat: Mass Layoffs

• The Trump-led White House, via OMB head Russell Vought, threatens not just furloughs but permanent firings for “non-essential” workers in the event of shutdown.
  • Quote:
    “If we think you’re not essential, we’re going to fire you... The direct threat from the White House is you won’t have a job at the end of this.”
    — Jacob Bogage [09:04]
• Such a move would prompt massive legal challenges but is intentionally chaotic and pressurizing.

6. Who Gets the Blame? The Modern Politics of Blame

• The discussion acknowledges that in today’s climate, “blame” is central, and the party that can “own the message” during the shutdown usually prevails.
• But with Trump’s aggressive and precedent-breaking leadership style, the usual rules may not apply.
  • Quote:
    “Our entire political system right now is about blame... What impact does that have on the conversation around a government shutdown?”
    — Dan Marica [11:11]

7. The White House’s Real Preferences and Congressional Power

• The Trump administration’s motives aren’t entirely clear; some GOP factions want to maximize pressure before seeking a “win” (the classic “McConnellism”), others want to test presidential powers around spending.
• Democrats note the danger in setting precedent for the White House to ignore congressional funding directives—undermining one of Congress’s core powers.
  • Quote:
    “Democratic lawmakers say... we can pass a funding resolution, but what happens when the President just says, ‘nah, I don’t want to fund that’... That’s not happening.”
    — Dan Marica [16:12]

8. How a Government Shutdown Touches Everyday Life

• Real consequences for Americans: closed parks, slower government services, federal contractors going unpaid.
  • Quote:
    “Your national parks are closed... If you want to call a government office... there’s not going to be someone there to answer the phone.”
    — Jacob Bogage [18:41]
• Shutdowns are universally unpopular and are, ironically, more expensive for the government in the long run.

9. Continuing Fallout for Chuck Schumer and Democratic Leadership

• Schumer’s choice to cooperate with Republicans last shutdown still haunts him, with candidates either distancing from him or outright opposing his leadership.
• No top Democratic candidate in major races will commit to voting for him as Senate leader if elected.
  • Quote:
    “He is becoming more of a punching bag on the Senate campaign trail than I think he ever would have thought.”
    — Dan Marica [22:16]

10. Immediate and Long-Term Political Consequences

• Shutdown (and especially layoffs) could reshape the political landscape of key states like Virginia (with many federal workers), possibly handing Democrats decisive advantages in near-term elections.
  • Quote:
    “It will hand the governor’s mansion to Abigail Spamberger.”
    — Jacob Bogage [23:33]

11. What Does “Fight” Look Like for Democrats?

• Democratic “fight” can mean everything from marathon Senate speeches, left-wing rallies, to running for other offices.
• Debate over whether “performative” fighting benefits policy, but panelists agree voters just want to see visible resistance, regardless of substantive effect.
  • Quote:
    “All they want is to see their leaders fighting the Trump administration. Does that fight lead to anything? I’m not sure they really care.”
    — Dan Marica [27:59]

12. Recent Procedural Fights and the Senate Filibuster

• Democrats’ obstruction tactics led Senate Republicans to weaken part of the filibuster to hurry Trump nominees—showing how “fight” sometimes carries unintended consequences.
  • Quote:
    “If you want to see the fight, there will be consequences to that fight... The consequence of your fight is that Republicans rewrote the rules to harder for you.”
    — Jacob Bogage [29:24–29:49]

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Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “It is blame. And that’s why people are looking at our institutions like looking down at our institutions.” — Dan Marica [00:34]
• “There are bars downtown who plan drink specials around government shutdowns... It is so immensely stupid.” — Dan Marica [00:46]
• “[Continuing resolutions mean] kicking the can down the road... until October 1st.” — Dan Marica [02:53-03:09]
• “If we think you’re not essential, we’re going to fire you... you won’t have a job at the end of this.” — Jacob Bogage [09:04]
• “Government shutdowns are not because we don’t have the money and we can’t do it. It’s a very weird... and I don’t think it’s controversial to say stupid way to run a government.” — Jacob Bogage [19:38, 20:12]
• “[Democratic voters] want to see the fight... I’m not sure they really care [about the policy impact].” — Dan Marica [27:59]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Background on the Shutdown Ritual: 00:34–01:52
• How the Budget Process Works: 02:15–03:33
• Democratic Dilemma & Trump’s Leverage: 04:08–06:18
• Healthcare as Democrats’ Core Message: 06:35–08:16
• Trump Administration Threatens Mass Firings: 09:04–10:36
• Blame and Messaging in Shutdown Politics: 10:45–12:10
• How a Shutdown Will Impact Regular Americans: 18:21–19:38
• Schumer’s Political Fallout: 21:23–23:07
• Immediate Political Effects in States like Virginia: 23:22–24:00
• What Does 'Fight' Mean for Democrats: 25:02–27:59
• Senate Filibuster and Procedural Retaliation: 28:04–29:49

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Tone and Takeaways

The episode maintains a wry, sometimes exasperated tone over the “stupid” and repetitive nature of shutdown politics. The panel approaches the topic with detailed inside knowledge but also acknowledges the cynicism and blame culture now dominant in Washington. According to the hosts, despite serious policy consequences and real-life disruptions, much of the drama is filtered through the lens of messaging, optics, and what emotionally satisfies each party’s voter base—regardless of substantive outcomes.

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Bottom Line:
The government shutdown brinkmanship of 2025 is operating under new, dangerous rules with Trump back in power. Both Democrats and Republicans stand to gain or lose, but the true cost—practical, political, and institutional—remains a moving target. What’s clearest is the growing frustration inside and outside the Beltway, as Americans watch a blame-driven, performative political battle with potentially real and lasting effects on their daily lives.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

And there is such a stupid routine to this that you will find people around Washington who plan their vacations totally around potential shutdowns because they know they're not going to be working. They there are bars downtown who plan drink specials around government shutdowns. I mean, this is pretty dark. It's choreographed and it is so immensely stupid.

[C]

From the newsroom of the Washington Post, this is Post Reports weekly Politics Roundtable. I'm Cole bjekowicz. It's Friday, September 26th. Today we're bringing you all things government shutdown and we're going to be talking about why Democrats in particular are in a really tough spot, whether the government shuts down or not. So I have two great guests with me today. I am thrilled to be joined this week by the Post's White House economic policy correspondent, Jacob Bogage. And back with me, Dan Marika, the co anchor of our politics newsletter, the Early Brief. Thank you both so much for joining me.

[A]

We're happy to be here. Great to be here. Yeah.

[C]

So, Dan, when you talk about government shutdowns, it can feel a little bit like Groundhog's Day, right? Because it feels like every couple months we're talking about government shutdowns. But I want to say this one is different. There are reasons why the politics, the strategies, the dynamics are different. So before we get there, though, remind me how are we here again?

[A]

Government needs to be funded, obviously spending copious amounts of money. And it is up to Congress decide how and when to fund the government. We have been here before, not only in past administrations, but this this year as well. March was the last time this happened. At that time, Congress passed what is called a long term continuing resolution. A continuing resolution is technically not a budget. You know, it's just kind of funding the government at the current levels that the government is funded at. So There are fewer strings attached than actually passing a real budget, which this is all very.

[C]

I covered Congress for a long time, and this is all already complicated.

[A]

I'll make this easier. A continuing resolution is often referred to in Washington as kicking the can down the road. That's basically what they did in March. They said, we have this continuing resolution. We'll fund the government by kicking the can down the road until October 1st.

[C]

Yeah, like, we'll deal with this in October.

[A]

Congress has kicked the can down the road so often that it's become the norm. There are plenty of politicians that would like to pass appropriations bills and fund the government through an actual budget. But herein lies the problem. Difficult to get Congress to agree on anything. And that is what we're seeing at the heart of this fight right now. So it takes 60 votes in the Senate to pass a continuing resolution like this.

[C]

And we should note this passed the House already. So we're really just talking about the Senate here.

[A]

We are to some extent. If the Senate takes up something different or does something different, I believe you can correct me if I'm wrong. The House will have to act.

[B]

The House will have to act, but the House is gone, by the way. And Speaker Mike Johnson has sent his members home and said, don't come back until after the deadline.

[A]

But therein lies the leverage that Democrats have. There are not 60 Republicans in the Senate.

[C]

Right.

[A]

They have some degree of leverage, and it's one of the rare times in Washington with the party so out of power that Democrats do have leverage in this case, and they intend to use it.

[C]

So, Jacob, to understand what's happening now, I do think we need to understand what was happening six months ago, what was going on politically last time.

[B]

So in March, Donald Trump has just taken power. He's back in the White House for his second term. Doge is running roughshod through the federal government.

[C]

Elon Musk. Elon Musk, Department of Government Efficiency yes.

[B]

In the federal government, taking the reins of every major agency, cutting staff, cutting funding, saying, you can't spend it on this or you can't spend it on that. And that puts congressional Democrats in a bind. Do we continue to fund the government for another six months in which Doge is going to disregard the will of Congress, or do we shut the government down, which would empower Doge and President Trump and his budget office to have much broader latitude on what's considered essential and can continue operating when there's no funding and what's non essential?

[C]

So Democrats are basically deciding in this Moment, okay, we can keep the government funded at the levels it's currently funded at, or if we let the government shut down, we're giving Trump actually more power in that instance because he gets to decide what's essential and what's not.

[B]

And there is heavy pressure on Democrats. Do not cooperate with the White House. Don't give the White House. Don't give an inch. And instead they gave a lot more than an inch. And Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, comes out and says it would be a worse outcome to shut down the government and let Donald Trump and Russell vote. He runs the White House Office of Management and Budget. It would be a worse outcome to shut down the government and give them more discretion than it would be to fund the government and hold them accountable for their decisions.

[C]

Okay, so we have all this history. People are really angry with Chuck Schumer last time because he goes along with voting for the cr, keeping the, keeping the government open. Dan, how are Democrats looking at it differently this time?

[A]

Democrats want to get concessions out of Republicans on the issue of health care, particularly some Biden era subsidies that helped keep premiums down. So healthcare premiums down. They want to extend those premiums related.

[C]

To the Affordable Care act, related to.

[A]

The Affordable Care Act. Basically, without these subsidies, people would see their premiums go up, by some estimates, about 75% on average, according to a nonpartisan health policy study. Now, that's a ton of money out of someone's pocket. It is politically difficult for Republicans because there's like a lot of factors going into this. It's Obamacare, something Republicans have railed against for a long time. It's Joe Biden's administration, something that Republicans are railing against currently. And it's a Covid era decision, these premiums. So you have kind of the trifecta of things Republicans would rather not do. So by asking for this, it is actually a big ask for Republicans. But it's also could be politically difficult for Republicans if these premiums aren't extended.

[B]

And the notifications that the premiums going up come out very soon.

[A]

So this is something voters will feel right away. And that could be a big issue for Republicans. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said that he is open to negotiating overextending these premiums. He said that recently on cnn, but he said he is not open to doing it if it is tied to the stopgap budget.

[B]

Like I said, this is a program that needs reform. But I think everybody is willing to.

[A]

Sit down and talk about how to make that happen. In a context where it should be.

[B]

Discussed, not as a hostage to keep.

[A]

The government open, it's a politically potent message.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

If Democrats are able to convey that message, that Republicans want to shut down the government because they don't want to make your health care premiums lower, that's a pretty potent message. We've seen healthcare be a hugely motivating factor in elections. The question is of delivering that message. Are Democrats able to coherently and kind of effectively deliver that message?

[C]

So Democrats are trying to make this a fight about healthcare, as we've discussed. But it's interesting because the White House is also sending some pretty strong signals about how they're going to handle a government shutdown. And so then just this week we saw Office of Management and Budget, which as we have discussed, is run by Russell Vogt. They put out this memo that basically says if the government shuts down, they're going to do these massive layoffs across the federal government. I don't really understand that. So, Jacob, how does that work in a government shutdown?

[B]

When the government shuts down, everyone who's considered non essential to life, safety or property is furloughed. You get sent home and you do get back pay when the government reopens. But the people who screen bags at the airport, they're working unpaid for a certain amount of time because they are essential. The people who inspect our meat processing plants, they're unpaid, but they're still working because they're essential to, you know, keeping people safe. In this case, what Russ Vogt has said the Trump administration plans to do is we're not just going to send people home. If we think you're not essential, we're going to fire you. And the way that breaks down the agencies that will remain operational are the ones that got money during the one big beautiful bill or from the one big beautiful bill. That's the Defense Department, that's Homeland Security to an extent, that's the faa, because they want to do some things with air traffic control after the plane crash into Washington, Reagan National Airport back in January. But other than that, everybody else is kind of sidelined. And if you get sidelined here, the direct threat from the White House is you won't have a job at the end of this.

[A]

I think it's safe to say if this happens, it's an if the government shuts down and if these firings happen, there will be massive lawsuits by unions and others to protect these jobs. And I think that will kind of slow up the process of these mass firings. But it is very clear that they are making this threat and it is a threat to kind of sow chaos if the government is shut down.

[C]

Yeah, you know, we've talked about the fact that Democrats are making this about healthcare, but isn't it also that they wanna be shown as fighting back?

[A]

That's what the base is certainly demanding. They wanna see fight from leaders in Washington in particular. And with the government shutdown, we've seen this before so much of like who kind of comes out ahead. I think it's hard to say that when people are maybe losing their jobs, but what party comes out ahead in a government sh is about messaging and who owns the message. You've seen in past government shutdowns when the party that has the most forceful message that can stick to that message when they're talking about the shutdown is often the one that pulls show afterwards has kind of come out ahead. I'm interested in this shutdown in particular, that our entire political system right now is about blame. And that hasn't always been the case. I know it feels like for a long time politics has been nothing but a blame game. Always blaming your opponent. It's always someone else's fault. It's never the party in power's fault or it's never Democrats fault. That is kind of how our politics is set up right now. What impact does that have on the conversation around a government shutdown? If our voters and Americans are so conditioned to a politics that is defined by blame, how does messaging around a government shutdown that is already predisposed to be focused on blame? How does that reach voters? How does that change the way they feel about a government shutdown? I think that's like an inherent important question that we don't know the answer to. If the government does shut down.

[C]

I have a few more questions about this, so let's pause there when we come back. So where does all of this leave the shutdown talks? And what does a government shutdown mean for you? We'll be right back.

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[C]

So before the break, we were talking about who's gonna get blamed for this shutdown and how it kind of looked like Democrats might because they were the ones making these demands. But if the government shuts down and then the Trump White House does these mass firings, do they become the ones that get blamed? I'm just wondering, like, what is the White House's preference here, Jacob? Like would they rather the Democrats let the government shut down and they go forward with this plan, or do they want the government to keep being funded?

[B]

We're trying to figure that out.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

I wish I had a better answer for you. I mean, there are elements within the Republican Party. I don't wanna necessarily say the White House, but there are elements within the Republican Party that say yes, ratchet up the pressure as much as you can and then offer an off ramp. That is the classic McConnellism, the Mitch McConnell ism, the former Republican leader, his playbook pressure to with an off ramp that gives us wins and embarrasses you to an extent. And so there's an element of the Republican Party that's looking at that space. There is also an element of the Republican Party, the further right flank, I pointed to the left, the further right flank that wants to provoke a shutdown, that wants to test a lot of the precedents around how much power the White House gets to have in spending conversations. Because the answer through 250 years of American history is very little that spending is the purview of Congress, per the Constitution.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And the White House is very eager to test that.

[C]

Well, because, I mean, also if you're a Democrat right now and the White House has decided that it can spend as it sees fit and it doesn't actually have to take into account like what you've actually passed through an appropriations budget, what incentive is there really to pass this?

[A]

You've heard lawmakers, Democratic lawmakers say that we can pass a funding resolution, but what happens when the President just says, nah, I don't want to fund that, and uses a power that is questionable, but he attempts to use to basically like line item. That's not happening. It's a central question in all of this is that Trump is such a precedent setting president. He's shown he's willing, he and the Republican Party are willing to take a novel look, I think is a nice way of saying it, at the powers of the presidency, that there are lawmakers on Capitol Hill that feel like, why would we go along with this if he's just going to disregard whatever we do for his own political ideology or what he wants to get done in the White House?

[B]

In terms of potency, I think that is Democrats best argument.

[A]

You do?

[B]

I do. I think in terms of, Well, I.

[A]

Think the health care argument.

[B]

In terms of negotiation potency, I think the best argument is, Mr. President, get out of our kitchen. You don't have the authority to do this. Leave the spending decisions to us. We were elected to this role and you were elected to that role. And we have different jobs. This is not your job. And I think that's the most potent argument, especially if this goes to the courts, which I think it will. I don't know if it's potent with voters.

[C]

Right.

[A]

So I think actually, I think this is the case with Donald Trump. I mean, it is worth remembering the longest government shutdown in history happened during Donald Trump's first term in office. It was like over Christmas and New Year's, 34 days. Yeah. I actually think that Donald Trump is a politician who is defined by personal power, defined by, I can do kind of whatever I want. And we have talked about the fact that he runs his White House and his administration much like a business person, because that is who he is. I actually wonder if Democrats come in and say, you don't have this power, if it makes him dig in a little more and not want to give an inch. I'm not in the room and I'm not in Donald Trump's head, but I Have to imagine that that is a factor at play in the thinking of all of these negotiations.

[C]

When we talk about what resonates with voters for us talking about these spending fights, we're kind of talking at this high level, but they matter. Right? They matter to real people. And so how does a government shutdown impact regular Americans? How will regular Americans feel this?

[B]

Your national parks are closed. So I hope you didn't have a park vacation planned during a potential shutdown period. If you want to call a government office because you need help with something around your taxes, there's not going to be someone there to answer the phone. If you want to call Social Security, they're technically not affected in the same way. But wait times are probably going to be longer. If you need to call the Department of Education about your student loan, if you need to get forms processed, it's very tactile, though.

[A]

Everything that he is mentioning is the direct way that voters interact with government, mundane as it may be, on a daily basis. Right.

[B]

Not to mention, if your business has the federal government as a client, you are not getting paid.

[C]

Right.

[B]

You're not getting paid.

[A]

And I think polling shows that people hate government shutdowns.

[B]

They hate them. They also cost more than they say.

[A]

And I think it's.

[C]

Well, that's wild.

[A]

I mean, because getting the government. Yeah.

[B]

What's the reason you divert all of this attention to plan for a shutdown? So all of the things that my agency should be doing, we're not going to do for a little bit because we have to plan to not do them. Then we send everybody home and nothing gets done. So we create a backlog of these tasks. Then we bring everybody back and everyone says, oh, how was your break? And, you know, like we all do. And then you have to dig out through that backlog. And then, by the way, like, in some cases, you may have to. If you had an obligation that you didn't pay out as the government, you might have to pay it with interest. This does not save money. Government shutdowns are not. Because we don't have the money and we can't do it. It's a very weird. And I don't think it's controversial to say stupid way to run a government.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

And I think if you. Like we said, polls show that people hate government shutdowns. But I think if there's anybody in America who wonders why trust in our institutions are at all time lows, Congress's approval rating is low. The Trump administration is dealing with low approval rate. If you wonder that is, it's because people look at Washington and think, why can't you just not get this done?

[C]

Well, that's what I mean about it. Feeling rote sometimes it does feel like this choreographed dance that we do every couple months. Where will they or won't they? Will the government shut down? We're gonna take, we're gonna bring the government right to the brink and then maybe we'll pull back. And I do think people maybe kind of, or at least voters kind of forget about it. And it's not the most salient political issue, but I think what is salient is how the party has reacted in the moment. Right. Which is what something that you wrote about this week, Dan, about how Schumer is still feeling the reverberations of what he did back in March.

[B]

This was such a smart story.

[A]

Thank you.

[C]

What did you find is kind of the continued political fallout of Schumer going along with the Republicans.

[A]

So, yeah, Chuck Schumer, Democratic leader in the Senate, went along with Republicans in March. The reaction was fierce. You had people calling for his ouster in the moment. You had people saying that he needed to face a primary challenge when he's up for reelection in 2028. You had people questioning his leadership position in the Senate. We are now six months removed from that. And he is recruiting candidates nationwide to run for Senate in key midterm elections this cycle. And what you're seeing in these races is there are a number of candidates, not an insignificant number of candidates who running as anti Schumer candidates, who are looking to tap into the anger that this base feels at party leadership in Washington by saying in one case, quote, hell no, I won't vote for Senator Schumer if I win my race and he is up for Democratic leader in the next Congress. We contacted top Senate candidates in 12 different states, including the nine that are seen as the most competitive. Not a single candidate, including those who are very close to Schumer and are seen as kind of his hand picked recruits for these races, said that they would vote for him if they win their races and he is up for Senate Democratic leader next cycle. That is incredibly powerful. I mean, some folks answered and dodged the question. Some said that they wouldn't. So that is where his personal politics come into play here, where he is becoming more of a punching bag on the Senate campaign trail than I think he ever would have thought he would have been in previous.

[C]

I mean, Dan, you're talking about the midterms, which I think for a lot of people still feel Pretty far away. I know it's something that's top of mind for Democratic leaders and for the White House, but I'm wondering, with this shutdown, is there any way that you could imagine it has more of an immediate political impact?

[A]

I mean, there are two states that really have key votes in 2025, New Jersey and Virginia. This threat of a mass firing is a huge blow to Virginia Republican.

[B]

It will hand the governor's mansion to Abigail Spangler.

[C]

Oh, that's interesting. Abigail Sanger being the Democrat running for governor in Virginia.

[A]

Yeah, the vibes around Virginia Republican campaigns in Virginia were already quite bad because of the impact that Doge has had, not only in Northern Virginia, but there's a huge military installation, number of military installations kind of in the southeast corner of Virginia in, like, Norfolk area. Doge had a huge impact on Virginia. And Democrats have already been running in the state saying that Republicans are not willing. They're scared is the word to stand up to Donald Trump. That's been their message already. It's been in paid media, it's been in interviews, it's been all over the place. The threat of mass layoffs, many of whom, folks who probably live in Virginia, commute into D.C. regularly, that just reinforces their messaging already. And it could, I think Jacob is right. Like, it could essentially hand Virginia to Democrats in the next election, which would be a huge blow to President Trump and other Republicans, because that election is often seen as kind of a preview of what is going to happen in the midterms. That is a very powerful point here. I'm not sure how much Republicans are factoring that in, because if they were thinking about that, I'm not sure their first threat would be, we're going to lay off tons of people who live in Northern Virginia. But it is a factor here. And I think you are going to start seeing Democrats really lean into that as they look around Virginia in particular.

[C]

So when Abigail Spamberger or some other Democrat says, we're gonna fight Trump, I still have a hard time wrapping my head around what that looks like, what.

[B]

Does it look like?

[C]

What does that mean?

[B]

What does fight look like for Democrats? Democrats don't know what fight looks like to Cory Booker, who's the Democratic senator from New Jersey, was on the senate floor for 25 plus hours, wasn't even filibustering anything, just, like, had time for general speeches and decided to hold the floor for that long. That's what fight meant to him. To Bernie Sanders, it means the fight. Oligarchy rallies all across the country. Are those accomplishing anything policy wise?

[C]

Right.

[B]

No, directly they are not. To some it means leaving Congress altogether and running for other office. Michael Bennett, the senator from Colorado, is running for governor of that state. He's getting pressure from his left and so he's tracking that way as well. There is a lot of noise ver signal that Democrats are picking up on him. Like what does the base want and does that help at all politically? And I think there has been on the left a backlash against the furthest flank of that party who said we're gonna stay home because we don't like the way Joe Biden has handled XYZ issue. The war in Gaza was one of them. That was in a pronounced way. And this backlash at the left of like, stop telling our elected leaders how to behave because moderates hate you. Please stop trying to influence Chuck Schumer and everybody else on the Hill to run further to the left. Because what you are looking for is performative. And if you want to impact policy, you need to win elections. And you win elections by holding your base and running to the middle. And I think there's a lot of noise and signal about what is performative and what is a fight that is going to generate a larger constituency in the midterm elections such that we can have an impact on policy. And Democrats have not successfully found that ground yet.

[A]

Yeah, I don't think Democratic voter, I mean, I speak to a lot of Democratic voters. I'm not sure they care that there's like a direct impact of the fight. I think they want to see the fight.

[C]

They just want to see it.

[A]

I mean, I think so much of our politics is about vibes. The vibes around Joe Biden were not great and Donald Trump won in 2024. I think you've seen this in election after election that so much of our politics is about vibes and the vibes going into a fight and the vibes around a fight. So even if a fight from Democrats is not leading directly to some policy change, I think base voters in particular, and at the newsletter we ask questions every day and get this feedback loop from a lot of readers, some whom are Democrats, some aren't. All they want is to see their leaders fighting the Trump administration. Does that fight lead to anything? I'm not sure they really care.

[C]

And they wanna see them calling it out.

[B]

Right?

[C]

Calling out what they say is not normal.

[B]

Well, here's another example of that. I mean, we just saw this happen in the Senate where Senate Republicans blew up part of the filibuster to move larger blocks of nominees that needed Senate approval.

[C]

Wait, Jacob, I think I missed this. So when did they blow up the filibuster?

[B]

Yeah. So over the summer, in late August, Donald Trump went off on Republicans for not moving his nominees fast enough. And that is because Democrats were able to successfully slow down the pace of business on the Senate floor. As a obstruction tactic.

[C]

As a way to fight.

[B]

Yes, as a way to fight. And Republicans took the so called nuclear option, they blew up part of the filibuster to move nominees in giant blocks. Instead of voting on some of them one at a time, they can now just do dozens of them at once. And so this fight that Democrats showed on this very procedural nuts and bolts of governing thing, Republicans said, fine, you want to fight, let's fight. And so part of this from some Democratic voters, a large contingency of Democratic voters saying, we want to see the fight. There are, to every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. If you want to see the fight, there will be consequences to that fight. Sometimes it's Cory Booker torturing himself on the Senate floor and sometimes it is, the filibuster is further weakened. It looks different than you want it to look. And by the way, the pace of action on the Senate floor, it was very, very slow because you fought and now it's going to get very, very fast in a way that is going to benefit Republicans. The consequence of your fight is that Republicans rewrote the rules to harder for you.

[C]

It really sounds like you're saying the Democrats are damned if they do, damned if they don't.

[B]

Yep, yep, yep, yep, yep.

[A]

I'm not sure. I think, I think, I think Democratic voters don't care. Like they don't care about Senate filibuster rules and they don't care that the speed of the Senate they want to filibuster anyway. Sure. They don't care that the speed of the Senate is now faster. I just think they want to see a fight. Based on conversations I've had.

[C]

Guys, we're going to leave it there. Thank you so much for coming on. I really appreciate it.

[B]

So much fun. Thanks for having me.

[A]

Yeah, thanks for having me.

[C]

Jacob Bogage is the White House Economic Policy Correspondent here at the Post. Dan Marika is the co anchor of the Politics newsletter, the Early Brief. Today's episode was produced by Laura Benchoff and Josh Carroll. It was engineered by Shawn Carter. It was edited by Errol Plotnik and Laura Benchoff. Thanks also to editors Rachel Van Dogen and Mike Madden. Our team also includes Rena Flores, Ted Muldoon, Alana Gordon, Rennie Serenofsky, Sabi Robinson, Emma Talkoff, Thomas Liu, Zoe Cummings, Peter Fresnin, Renita Jablonski, Alahia Azadi and Martine Powers. I'm Colby Ekowitz. Have a great weekend.

[E]

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