Podcast Summary: Post Reports

Episode: Could a government shutdown benefit Trump?

Date: September 26, 2025
Host: Colby Itkowitz
Guests: Jacob Bogage (White House Economic Policy Correspondent), Dan Marica (Co-anchor, Early Brief newsletter)

Overview

This episode of Post Reports tackles the high-stakes brinkmanship in Washington over a possible government shutdown. With former President Trump back in the White House and the government again at risk of halting, the guests discuss the altered political landscape, shifting party strategies, how the shutdown fight could affect ordinary Americans, and the implications for Democrats, Trump, and the upcoming elections. The conversation dives into the complexities of budget negotiations, messaging battles, and the practical and political impact of mass federal layoffs threatened by the Trump administration.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Shutdown Fatigue and Political Choreography

• The panel highlights the almost ritualistic nature of shutdown threats in Washington, with locals and even businesses having learned to expect and plan around them.
  • Memorable Quote:
    “There are bars downtown who plan drink specials around government shutdowns. I mean, this is pretty dark. It’s choreographed and it is so immensely stupid.”
    — Dan Marica [00:46]

2. Why Are We Here Again?

• Explanation of the budget process and the chronic use of "continuing resolutions" as a temporary fix instead of passing budgets.
  • Quote:
    “A continuing resolution is often referred to in Washington as kicking the can down the road... Congress has kicked the can down the road so often that it’s become the norm.”
    — Dan Marica [02:53-03:09]
• Current gridlock is especially acute, as Democrats attempt to extract concessions from Republicans, particularly on health care subsidies, while navigating a hostile White House.

3. Trump’s Leverage and the Democrats’ Bind

• With Trump’s administration in control, any shutdown could allow the White House to decide which government functions continue, giving Trump unprecedented latitude.
• Democrats face the dilemma of either cooperating to keep the government running (and ceding ground) or risking a shutdown to deny Trump discretionary powers.
  • Quote:
    “It would be a worse outcome to shut down the government and give them more discretion than it would be to fund the government and hold them accountable for their decisions.”
    — Jacob Bogage, paraphrasing Chuck Schumer [05:13]

4. Democrats’ Messaging: Making the Shutdown About Healthcare

• Democrats’ main demand: maintain Biden-era subsidies to keep health care premiums low, a politically tough ask for Republicans.
• If premiums spike, voters will feel it immediately, creating risk for the GOP.
  • Quote:
    “If Democrats are able to convey that message, that Republicans want to shut down the government because they don’t want to make your health care premiums lower, that’s a pretty potent message.”
    — Dan Marica [08:08]
• Uncertainty exists over whether Democrats can deliver that message effectively.

5. Trump Administration’s Threat: Mass Layoffs

• The Trump-led White House, via OMB head Russell Vought, threatens not just furloughs but permanent firings for “non-essential” workers in the event of shutdown.
  • Quote:
    “If we think you’re not essential, we’re going to fire you... The direct threat from the White House is you won’t have a job at the end of this.”
    — Jacob Bogage [09:04]
• Such a move would prompt massive legal challenges but is intentionally chaotic and pressurizing.

6. Who Gets the Blame? The Modern Politics of Blame

• The discussion acknowledges that in today’s climate, “blame” is central, and the party that can “own the message” during the shutdown usually prevails.
• But with Trump’s aggressive and precedent-breaking leadership style, the usual rules may not apply.
  • Quote:
    “Our entire political system right now is about blame... What impact does that have on the conversation around a government shutdown?”
    — Dan Marica [11:11]

7. The White House’s Real Preferences and Congressional Power

• The Trump administration’s motives aren’t entirely clear; some GOP factions want to maximize pressure before seeking a “win” (the classic “McConnellism”), others want to test presidential powers around spending.
• Democrats note the danger in setting precedent for the White House to ignore congressional funding directives—undermining one of Congress’s core powers.
  • Quote:
    “Democratic lawmakers say... we can pass a funding resolution, but what happens when the President just says, ‘nah, I don’t want to fund that’... That’s not happening.”
    — Dan Marica [16:12]

8. How a Government Shutdown Touches Everyday Life

• Real consequences for Americans: closed parks, slower government services, federal contractors going unpaid.
  • Quote:
    “Your national parks are closed... If you want to call a government office... there’s not going to be someone there to answer the phone.”
    — Jacob Bogage [18:41]
• Shutdowns are universally unpopular and are, ironically, more expensive for the government in the long run.

9. Continuing Fallout for Chuck Schumer and Democratic Leadership

• Schumer’s choice to cooperate with Republicans last shutdown still haunts him, with candidates either distancing from him or outright opposing his leadership.
• No top Democratic candidate in major races will commit to voting for him as Senate leader if elected.
  • Quote:
    “He is becoming more of a punching bag on the Senate campaign trail than I think he ever would have thought.”
    — Dan Marica [22:16]

10. Immediate and Long-Term Political Consequences

• Shutdown (and especially layoffs) could reshape the political landscape of key states like Virginia (with many federal workers), possibly handing Democrats decisive advantages in near-term elections.
  • Quote:
    “It will hand the governor’s mansion to Abigail Spamberger.”
    — Jacob Bogage [23:33]

11. What Does “Fight” Look Like for Democrats?

• Democratic “fight” can mean everything from marathon Senate speeches, left-wing rallies, to running for other offices.
• Debate over whether “performative” fighting benefits policy, but panelists agree voters just want to see visible resistance, regardless of substantive effect.
  • Quote:
    “All they want is to see their leaders fighting the Trump administration. Does that fight lead to anything? I’m not sure they really care.”
    — Dan Marica [27:59]

12. Recent Procedural Fights and the Senate Filibuster

• Democrats’ obstruction tactics led Senate Republicans to weaken part of the filibuster to hurry Trump nominees—showing how “fight” sometimes carries unintended consequences.
  • Quote:
    “If you want to see the fight, there will be consequences to that fight... The consequence of your fight is that Republicans rewrote the rules to harder for you.”
    — Jacob Bogage [29:24–29:49]

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “It is blame. And that’s why people are looking at our institutions like looking down at our institutions.” — Dan Marica [00:34]
• “There are bars downtown who plan drink specials around government shutdowns... It is so immensely stupid.” — Dan Marica [00:46]
• “[Continuing resolutions mean] kicking the can down the road... until October 1st.” — Dan Marica [02:53-03:09]
• “If we think you’re not essential, we’re going to fire you... you won’t have a job at the end of this.” — Jacob Bogage [09:04]
• “Government shutdowns are not because we don’t have the money and we can’t do it. It’s a very weird... and I don’t think it’s controversial to say stupid way to run a government.” — Jacob Bogage [19:38, 20:12]
• “[Democratic voters] want to see the fight... I’m not sure they really care [about the policy impact].” — Dan Marica [27:59]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Background on the Shutdown Ritual: 00:34–01:52
• How the Budget Process Works: 02:15–03:33
• Democratic Dilemma & Trump’s Leverage: 04:08–06:18
• Healthcare as Democrats’ Core Message: 06:35–08:16
• Trump Administration Threatens Mass Firings: 09:04–10:36
• Blame and Messaging in Shutdown Politics: 10:45–12:10
• How a Shutdown Will Impact Regular Americans: 18:21–19:38
• Schumer’s Political Fallout: 21:23–23:07
• Immediate Political Effects in States like Virginia: 23:22–24:00
• What Does 'Fight' Mean for Democrats: 25:02–27:59
• Senate Filibuster and Procedural Retaliation: 28:04–29:49

Tone and Takeaways

The episode maintains a wry, sometimes exasperated tone over the “stupid” and repetitive nature of shutdown politics. The panel approaches the topic with detailed inside knowledge but also acknowledges the cynicism and blame culture now dominant in Washington. According to the hosts, despite serious policy consequences and real-life disruptions, much of the drama is filtered through the lens of messaging, optics, and what emotionally satisfies each party’s voter base—regardless of substantive outcomes.

Bottom Line:
The government shutdown brinkmanship of 2025 is operating under new, dangerous rules with Trump back in power. Both Democrats and Republicans stand to gain or lose, but the true cost—practical, political, and institutional—remains a moving target. What’s clearest is the growing frustration inside and outside the Beltway, as Americans watch a blame-driven, performative political battle with potentially real and lasting effects on their daily lives.