Post Reports: Could Trump’s Boat Strikes Turn Into War?
Date: October 20, 2025
Host: Colby Itkowitz
Guest: Alex Horton, National Security Reporter
Overview
This episode of Post Reports explores the dramatic escalation of U.S. military action in the Caribbean under President Trump’s administration—specifically, a series of deadly strikes on boats suspected of drug trafficking near Venezuela. The survival of two passengers in one recent strike has complicated the official narrative, sparked international outrage, and raised questions about transparency, legality, and the real motives behind the escalating campaign. National security reporter Alex Horton provides on-the-ground insight into what is happening, how reporting is being handcuffed by new Pentagon policies, and why the situation is sparking broad speculations of a possible war with Venezuela.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
New Challenges in Reporting (01:46–04:23)
- Pentagon Media Ban: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s new policy restricts journalists from soliciting non-preapproved information—radically reducing Pentagon transparency.
- Alex Horton: “It’s essentially a policy of trust us to give what you need to know... Not really ask the follow up questions, seek more information, or go report stories that they're uncomfortable or embarrassed to tell you.” (02:55)
- Impact on Coverage: Horton describes the difference in access and details compared to previous operations (e.g., strikes in Iran), emphasizing the current administration’s secrecy.
Details and Evolution of the Boat Strikes (04:23–07:21)
- September Onward: Since early September, at least seven U.S. strikes have occurred on suspected drug boats in the Caribbean, resulting in about 30 deaths.
- Shift from Law Enforcement to Military Response: Instead of conventional Coast Guard interdictions (arrests, seizures), the U.S. is now destroying boats with lethal force.
- Alex Horton: “This has been an unusual turn for how the U.S. military... handles the problem of drug trafficking.” (04:36)
Legal and Policy Justifications (07:21–09:49)
- Question of War: Horton explores the legal ambiguity—a president taking unilateral military action without congressional declaration.
- Quote: “They have the authority to declare war... Congress has failed time and time again to rein that behavior in.” (07:39)
- Congressional Concerns: Both parties express frustration over the lack of evidence and transparency.
The “Deterrence” Fails and a Broader Military Build-Up (08:27–09:49)
- Continued Strikes: Initial speculation that strikes were a deterrent proved wrong as attacks continued and military presence grew.
- Major U.S. Buildup: About 10,000 troops, warships—including a nuclear-powered submarine—and special operations units are now stationed in the Caribbean.
- Alex Horton: “10% of all deployed naval power is in the Caribbean... This is setting the stage for prolonged and sustained operations.” (09:21)
The Game-Changer: Survivors (09:49–14:29)
- Unexpected Survivors: In a recent strike, two out of four people survived—a rare outcome which presented legal and diplomatic complexities.
- Alex Horton: “I wouldn't have imagined that two survivors would have come off the boat, and I don't think the Pentagon even thought about that...” (01:08)
- The two were not Venezuelan (Colombian and Ecuadorian) and were later quietly repatriated, instead of being treated as prisoners of war or prosecuted.
- Contradictory Conduct: The U.S. called the suspects “dangerous terrorists” meriting lethal force, but then simply sent the survivors home.
- Quote: “If they were a serious threat, why aren't they being sent to military tribunals or the civilian justice system?... the administration doesn't want a lot of that stuff to come out.” (12:07)
Targeting Venezuela – Facts vs. Narrative (13:16–14:29)
- Actual Drug Trafficking Dynamics: Venezuela is a relatively minor player in regional drug trafficking compared to Colombia or Mexican cartels.
- Alex Horton: “Venezuela is a small player in the drug market... their economy has been in shambles for so long that it’s becoming more of a focus there. But they’re just not major players.” (13:29)
- Hill Criticism: Lawmakers and experts argue the strikes don’t address the channels actually responsible for most U.S.-bound fentanyl or cocaine.
Regional Fallout and International Backlash (16:38–18:34)
- Diplomatic Crisis with Colombia: Colombian President Gustavo Petro alleges U.S. strikes killed innocent Colombian fishermen, triggering a fierce diplomatic dispute.
- Horton: “Colombia... is the strongest, most longstanding partnership... for that relationship to fracture is significant.” (17:25)
- U.S. threatens to cut drug enforcement aid—a potential loss for both intelligence sharing and interdiction.
Motives and Regime Change Chatter (18:34–19:57)
- Regime Change Accusations: On Capitol Hill, many suspect that the real aim is to destabilize or oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a persistent adversary of the U.S.
- Alex Horton: “Democrats and Republicans are telling the Pentagon and telling the administration, you need to show us the math. You need to show us these connections to Nicolas Maduro, these connections to these terrorist groups.” (19:57)
Risk of Direct Conflict – Gulf of Tonkin Analogy (20:01–22:02)
- Possible Escalation to War: Maduro is mobilizing militias amid rising tensions, and U.S. buildup increases risk of an incident spiraling out of control.
- Congressional Aide (via Horton): “They might be looking for a Gulf of Tonkin incident... that escalated the war there... putting your forces at risk, getting attacked and then saying, all right, let's do this thing.” (20:35)
- CIA Authorization: There are reports of Trump authorizing covert CIA operations—authorizations the U.S. government refuses to clarify.
What Happens Next? (22:02–22:49)
- Uncertainty and Volatility: With such a large U.S. military presence and open-ended authorization, the risk of sudden escalation into open conflict is high.
- Alex Horton: “We’ve gone up the ladder, not down, and we don’t know where the rungs lead to at this point.” (22:49)
Notable Quotes & Moments
- On Pentagon secrecy: “It just goes to show that information is a light switch they can turn on and off when they want to.” (03:28, Alex Horton)
- On scope of action: “10% of all deployed naval power is in the Caribbean... supporting this mission.” (09:21, Alex Horton)
- On legal gray area: “‘If they were a serious threat, why aren't they being sent to military tribunals or the civilian justice system?’... the administration doesn't want a lot of that stuff to come out.” (12:07, Alex Horton)
- On regime change motives: “There's increasing chatter on Capitol Hill that this is ultimately about Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and regime change.” (18:49, Alex Horton)
- On possible war trigger: “They might be looking for a Gulf of Tonkin incident... an incitement or a reason to get involved by putting your forces at risk, getting attacked and then saying, all right, let's do this thing.” (20:35, Alex Horton)
- On escalation risk: “We’ve gone up the ladder, not down, and we don’t know where the rungs lead to at this point.” (22:49, Alex Horton)
Key Timestamps
- 01:46–04:23: Pentagon reporting restrictions and impact on journalists
- 04:23–07:21: Timeline and policy rationale behind military strikes
- 08:27–09:49: U.S. military buildup; scope of Caribbean operation
- 09:49–14:29: The significance of boat strike survivors and their handling
- 16:38–18:34: International fallout—diplomatic rupture with Colombia
- 18:34–19:57: Allegations of regime change motives
- 20:35–22:02: Fear of escalation, Gulf of Tonkin comparison
- 22:02–22:49: Risks and uncertainties ahead
Conclusion
Through firsthand reporting and analysis, this episode uncovers the complexity behind the Trump administration’s Caribbean boat strikes—questioning official justifications, exploring hidden motives, and warning of volatile escalations ahead. The sudden emergence of survivors, regional diplomatic ruptures, congressional skepticism, and a sizable U.S. military buildup frame a situation fraught with risks far beyond the stated goal of stopping drug trafficking.
For anyone seeking a clear, nuanced, and comprehensive understanding of the current U.S. escalation in the Caribbean—including its legality, broader implications, and what might come next—this episode is an essential listen.