Is Trump going back on his economic promises?

Summary

Post Reports: Is Trump Going Back on His Economic Promises?
Release Date: May 8, 2025
Hosted by Aaron Blake, Naftali Bendavid, and Michael Birnbaum

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Introduction

In this episode of Post Reports, The Washington Post's daily podcast, host Aaron Blake engages in a deep dive into the evolving economic and foreign policy messaging of former President Donald Trump and his administration. Joined by senior political correspondent Naftali Bendavid and White House correspondent Michael Birnbaum, the panel dissects whether Trump is indeed retracting his economic promises and examines the broader implications for the Republican Party and U.S. foreign relations.

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Shift in Trump's Economic Messaging

Naftali Bendavid initiates the discussion by highlighting a noticeable change in Trump's economic rhetoric—from the optimistic promises of a "golden age" to a more sobering emphasis on austerity measures. This shift became apparent a few weeks prior, marked by comments from Cabinet members suggesting that Americans might need to adopt more frugal lifestyles, such as raising backyard chickens due to high egg prices.

• Naftali Bendavid ([02:19]): "People are sort of looking around... thinking, wow, maybe I could get a chicken in my backyard. And it's awesome."

Trump's recent remarks indicate an acknowledgment that citizens may need to endure short-term economic hardships as a trade-off for the long-term benefits promised through tariffs and trade policies.

• Aaron Blake ([03:21]): "Trump has been talking in recent days about the idea that things might get more expensive, but parents will just buy their children fewer dolls or maybe have fewer pencils even."

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Impact on the Republican Party

The panel discusses the precarious position of the Republican Party amidst Trump's shifting narrative. Naftali Bendavid points out that while Trump has a loyal base, broader Republican support may wane if economic conditions do not improve swiftly.

• Naftali Bendavid ([07:04]): "He has a very limited grace period... if things don't look a lot better by early next year, when the midterms really start kicking in, I think it's a problem for them."

Michael Birnbaum adds that mixed messaging from different factions within the White House exacerbates the challenge, making it difficult to present a unified stance on economic policies.

• Michael Birnbaum ([08:44]): "They are not themselves unified in terms of what they want to achieve and the story they want to tell."

Former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich is cited as recognizing the tumultuous effects of Trump's policies.

• Newt Gingrich ([09:38]): "The effects of Trump's policies could be, choppy and confusing for a while."

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Foreign Policy Developments

Transitioning to foreign policy, the conversation covers President Trump's meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Contrary to expectations, the meeting was relatively subdued, with Carney firmly rejecting any notions of Canada becoming part of the United States.

• Michael Birnbaum ([16:20]): "Canada is not for sale, that Canadians are not interested in becoming part of the United States."

The hosts analyze the diplomatic finesse displayed by Carney, who managed to correct Trump's misconceptions without escalating tensions.

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Immigration Policies and Legal Challenges

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the Trump administration's use of the antiquated Alien Enemies Act to deport individuals without due process. Recent court rulings have challenged and blocked these deportations, raising questions about the administration's legal and political strategies.

• Naftali Bendavid ([18:46]): "Several federal judges... have questioned, challenged, blocked the administration's use of that act as a pretext or rationale to deport a lot of people without due process."

Michael Birnbaum underscores the fundamental legal challenges, emphasizing that due process is a cornerstone of the U.S. legal system.

• Michael Birnbaum ([21:47]): "The administration is, in fact, deporting people who are not citizens, that would seem to be a pretty basic issue of court review."

The wrongful deportation cases, including that of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, highlight the administration's aggressive immigration stance and the ensuing legal battles.

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Upcoming Foreign Engagements

Looking ahead, Michael Birnbaum anticipates President Trump's upcoming Middle East trip, noting its unusual nature as it excludes key allies like Israel and includes potential business deals by the Trump Organization.

• Michael Birnbaum ([28:14]): "He’s mostly going to do business deals... planning to build a hotel in Doha, Qatar... not standard fare for how presidents operate."

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with a reflection on the complexities and consequences of Trump's shifting economic and foreign policies. The hosts emphasize the tightrope the Republican Party must walk to maintain its base while appealing to a broader electorate amid economic uncertainties and international diplomatic challenges.

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Notable Quotes

• Naftali Bendavid ([02:19]): "People are sort of looking around... thinking, wow, maybe I could get a chicken in my backyard. And it's awesome."
• Aaron Blake ([03:21]): "Trump has been talking in recent days about the idea that things might get more expensive, but parents will just buy their children fewer dolls or maybe have fewer pencils even."
• Michael Birnbaum ([21:47]): "The administration is, in fact, deporting people who are not citizens, that would seem to be a pretty basic issue of court review."
• Newt Gingrich ([09:38]): "The effects of Trump's policies could be, choppy and confusing for a while."

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the episode, providing listeners with an in-depth understanding of the topics covered without needing to listen to the full podcast.

Transcript

[Aaron Blake]

So I was wondering if you guys have been following the conclave at all.

[Naftali Bendavid]

I mean, I watched the movie, but it's not.

[Aaron Blake]

I was referring to a different conclave. This one does not involve Stanley Tucci.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Aren't the cardinals watching the conclave to figure out what they need to do?

[Aaron Blake]

Like the movie?

[Michael Birnbaum]

Yeah, like the movie.

[Aaron Blake]

As a political nerd and somebody who loves elections, I would really like to have a window into what happens in that room. I don't need, like, I don't need a video camera in the Sistine Chapel for this. What I do need is just like a tally of the votes and how they progress over time. And I want to see the factions and how they shift. So if you're listening, Catholic Church, I want to see the vote tallies. From the newsroom of the Washington Post, this is Post Reports. I'm Aaron Blake, senior politics reporter and host of the Post Reports weekly Politics Roundtable. It's the Thursday, May 8th. I'm joined this week by senior political correspondent Naftali Bendavid. Hey, Naftali.

[Naftali Bendavid]

Hey. Thanks for having me.

[Aaron Blake]

And we're also here with Michael Birnbaum, White House correspondent, covering Trump and foreign policy here at the Post. Hey, Michael.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Hey, Aaron.

[Aaron Blake]

So today we're going to be exploring some big news from the week through the lens of President Trump's, let's say, inconsistent messaging, first about tariffs and the economy and later in the show on foreign policy. A lot of what the administration is saying today is quite different from what it said on the 2024 campaign trail and even just a few weeks ago. So, Naftali, you wrote a piece about this this week, kind of broadly laying out how the Trump administration's economic messaging has shifted from one of promising prosperity, a new golden age, to now one that's more focused on the dreaded a word austerity, the idea that there has to be belt tightening in the American public to bridge the gap for these tariffs to get to the good that Trump has long promised. Can you just talk about when you notice this message changing and how kind of discordant it is relative to what he was saying before?

[Naftali Bendavid]

Well, it actually, I think, started a few weeks ago on the part of the Cabinet secretaries, where you had Agriculture Secretary Rollins, for example, mentioning that people who are upset about high egg prices might have to start raising chickens in their backyard.

[Aaron Blake]

I remember that.

[Naftali Bendavid]

Yeah, it was a very notable comment. I think the silver lining in all.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Of this is how do we in our backyards, We've got chickens, too, in our backyard. How do we solve for something like.

[Naftali Bendavid]

And people are sort of looking around.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Thinking, wow, well, maybe I could get.

[Naftali Bendavid]

A chicken in my backyard. And it's awesome.

[Aaron Blake]

I agree with you.

[Naftali Bendavid]

And the Secretaries of Commerce and treasury have been talking about how we might have to go through some rough times, and maybe the American dream is less about material goods and more about aspiration. But it really took off in the last few days at a Cabinet meeting and then a subsequent interview on Meet the Press, where President Trump started talking about this message of austerity that's at odds not only with his rhetoric, cuz he's always talked in very dramatic terms about a golden era that would start the moment he took office, but also really with the American political tradition, I think, where we talk about chicken in every pot car in every garage, prosperity, mourning in America, city on a hill, the idea that we're gonna have to tighten our belts and go through a period of austerity, you might hear that in other countries, but it's not generally been part of our tradition. So I think it really stood out.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah, of course, Trump has been talking in recent days about the idea that things might get more expensive, but parents will just buy their children fewer dolls or maybe have fewer pencils even. I think we've got that Aud children.

[Naftali Bendavid]

Will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.

[Aaron Blake]

But what is the White House saying about this? Are they saying that this is a shift in messaging, or do they claim that this was kind of the promise all along?

[Naftali Bendavid]

I mean, they do claim that this was what they said all along. And they give an example, for example, of an interview that President Trump did in December before he took office, but.

[Aaron Blake]

After he was elected, notably after he.

[Naftali Bendavid]

Was elected, and he was really pressed on whether he could promise that prices wouldn't go up if there were tariffs. And finally after being pressed, he said, well, I mean, I can't promise anything of tariffs. I don't believe. Can you guarantee American families won't pay more? I can't guarantee anything. I can't guarantee tomorrow. So I think while the White House does say that he has said this before, there's an undeniable and fairly stark shift in the messaging.

[Aaron Blake]

I think we focus on Trump a lot for obvious reasons. But how kind of endemic is the mixed messaging from the White House on these and the shift in messaging that we've seen? Is it just Trump or is it kind of everybody around him?

[Naftali Bendavid]

No, I definitely think it's the Key Cabinet secretaries as well. Scott Besant, the Secretary of the treasury, and Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary in particular. But it's a struggle. You know, there's a reason that the messaging is difficult. One thing that really jumped out to me is that the chosen term of not just Trump, but others in his administration is that we're going through a transition, an economic transition. Now, you may remember the heat that President Biden caught for talking about inflation as being transitory, transitory, not least from Trump and his circle. So after really a whole campaign that mocked President Biden for high prices, now they're facing a not dissimilar situation. And the messaging is tough for a lot of reasons. For one thing, Trump, Musk, Besant, Lutnick, these guys are very, very wealthy. And so the idea that they're telling people you may have to do with fewer dolls and fewer pencils may be politically difficult. And there's another issue too, which is I think Americans are more than willing to sacrifice if it's clear what they're sacrificing for, and it's a value that they all hold. But because the messaging has been a little muddled, it's not really clear what the point of the sacrifice is. That tends not to go over very well.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah, I actually was struck by some early Trump comments that were kind of in this vein about there being the potential for a transition. And I wrote a piece that was asking, are the American people willing to support him through that? Will they deal with some of these short term consequences or medium term consequences, potentially with inflation? And one thing I was really struck by was the number of people who are really strongly behind this idea of tariffs is small. If you look at the Republican Party, they're kind of like, yeah, Trump likes that, and I like that too. But the amount of people who were like, really, really gung ho about this idea was less than 20% of the American population. If you looked at the polling and you asked people, do you like tariffs? Okay, a modest amount of Trump supporters support it. But if you follow that up and you ask them, do you support tariffs if it increases the prices that you pay, when you followed up with that question, support for these tariffs dropped by about half. And so the question I'm asking right now, like, how much of a stomach is there among the American population for this? Can he convince people that there is some kind of gold at the end of this rainbow? I think we give him a lot of credit for being able to pull at least his base in favor of a lot of things that maybe they didn't believe in before. Is he able to do that on this, or is this just a situation where that's going to be extremely difficult?

[Naftali Bendavid]

I think he has a very limited grace period. I mean, it was widely thought that he won the election in large part by promising that prices would go down almost right away. And if now he's saying, well, you know, they might be high for a while and sure the economy might contract a little bit, but just bear with me, cuz at some point, can't tell you exactly when we're gonna have this really strong economy. I don't necessarily think that there'll be a tremendous amount of patience for that among voters at large. You're right that his base will tend to support him regardless. But I think, generously speaking, if things don't look a lot better by early next year, when the midterms really start kicking in, I think it's a problem for them. I mean, there's another issue, which is that Trump may have his eye on historic legacy, and he may really believe that he's going to usher in a golden period of economic strength for America. But Republicans have to run next year in November, and they don't have time to wait for that. And they are afraid of losing the House, potentially the Senate, although that's a bit of a long shot. So it may be that the sort of perspectives of the two components of the Republican Party are different. Trump himself has said things like China thinks in terms of years and decades and we think in terms of quarters. So he's suggesting that he, he's got his eye on history, and again, that's well and good, but for people who have to run for office in a few months, they may not appreciate that perspective in the same way.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. And the other part of this that I think's looming over it is Donald Trump was never like a big Republican before he started running for president. In some ways, he's kind of rented the Republican Party as a vessel to get him to the presidency. And so his loyalty is not necessarily to the party. He demands the party be loyal to him. But it doesn't go both ways.

[Michael Birnbaum]

There's also the challenge of storytelling. Right. You know, I talk to a lot of foreign diplomats who are involved in these trade talks. They don't know how to respond because there's one group of economic advisers who says basically these tariffs are a negotiation tool to get other countries to lower their tariffs or trade barriers, to increase global trade, and to make it easier to trade between their countries and the United States. But that is actually the opposite of erecting a big trade wall around the United States so that there's more manufacturing that gets built here. And that's a different strain of the White House and the Republican Party right now. So they are not themselves unified in terms of what they want to achieve and the story they want to tell. So that seems to me another political challenge for them because, you know, you really have to have a coherent message if you are going to ask people to make these sacrifices.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. Michael, you wrote a really good piece on this, and I was really struck by some comments from former Republican House speake Newt Gingrich. He said the effects of Trump's policies could be, quote, choppy and confusing for a while.

[Naftali Bendavid]

He's decided that he wants to be a profound change agent on a scale matched only by Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln and fdr. Well, if that's what you want to do, then you're going to have a fair amount of turmoil.

[Aaron Blake]

Here's another clip of that from our colleague Cleve Wootson, who interviewed Gingrich.

[Naftali Bendavid]

I wrote a piece in this the other day saying that, you know, we're not in a houseboat drinking beer, we're in wild rapids riding in a kayak. And it's going to be choppy and confusing for a while.

[Aaron Blake]

I guess my question is, what are we seeing from other Republicans when it comes to this, this gambit? You know, Naftali mentioned how their political futures loom for them in a lot bigger the way than Trump's does because, you know, they're up for reelection next year. Are they helping him sell this idea that, you know, there's this kind of painful period and we'll get past, or are they just kind of staying away from this altogether?

[Michael Birnbaum]

I think this is putting a lot of Republicans in a tough spot because they are dealing with a president whose overall numbers might not be great, but who remains very popular and powerful within the base, particularly Republican primary voters, whom they're still very worried about. But then they're looking at how do they measure up in swing districts, or in other words, areas where they could well lose. And they're trapped between trying to figure out a way to sell Trump's policies and extreme nervousness about the electoral consequences of inflation, which these tariffs are going to drive.

[Aaron Blake]

Republicans have a very thin House majority, one of the thinnest in history, and so it's not going to take a whole lot for them to lose that majority. Certainly something worth watching. After the break, we're going to dig into Trump and his administration's mixed messaging on another topic, which is foreign policy. We'll be right back.

[Michelle Singletary]

My name is Michelle Singletary, and I'm the personal finance columnist for the Washington Post. When I was growing up, I was raised by my grandmother, who was such a masterful money manager. And I watched her handle her money and talk to me about it. And I like to think that I'm the reader's big mama. There's so much information about your money out there, a lot of it wrong or inappropriate. But when you pay for a subscription to the Post, you're paying for a skilled journalist who has had years of experience, who I hope that you can trust. Your subscription helps pay for my salary. It helps pay for the illustrators, the copy editors, all the people who are involved in putting together the material that you read that could help inform your life. I'm Michelle Singletary, and I'm one of the people behind the Post. I'm Molly Roberts.

[Aaron Blake]

And I'm Drew Goins. Each Friday on Impromptu, we talk through the questions we can't stop thinking about.

[Michelle Singletary]

Do we need to rethink how much we drink?

[Aaron Blake]

Why are companies really asking workers to come back to the office?

[Michelle Singletary]

Does boycotting a business actually work?

[Aaron Blake]

Should we quit social media?

[Michelle Singletary]

We're here when the news gets personal and the headlines hit home.

[Aaron Blake]

Join Molly and me every Friday on Impromptu from Washington Post Opinions.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Find impromptu wherever you get your podcasts.

[Aaron Blake]

Michael. So the tariffs that we've been talking about a lot on this show were the subtext of a major foreign policy meeting this week in the White House, which was Canada's new prime minister, Mark Carney, visiting with Donald Trump. I think a lot of people were wondering what would happen here, given a lot of people thought that Trump kind of swung that election for Carney. He actually seemed to hurt the Conservative candidate in this race, not just through the tariffs, but this talk about Canada being the 51st state, which a lot of Canadians regard as not just wrong but also offensive. People were kind of wondering, is this going to be another situation like we had with Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader in the White House? It wasn't that explosive, I think it's fair to say. But can you tell me what you saw in this meeting and how it went and what we learned?

[Michael Birnbaum]

Well, it was really interesting, as you said, Aaron, because Mark Carney, now the prime minister of Canada, member of the Liberal Party, you know, they have been in power for quite some time now in Canada, but they were really flagging at the Polls. This was a come from behind victory.

[Aaron Blake]

They were talking about a historic win for Conservatives in Canada, which, you know.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Right. That was absolutely the expectation. Canadians were really tired of a long stretch of center left rule in the country. And Mark Carney really sailed to election victory by being really robust in his defense of Canada, his offense against what Donald Trump has been saying about trying to annex Canada.

[Aaron Blake]

And, you know, a very nationalistic campaign.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Right. A really tough and firm response to Trump's rhetoric. And so the question going into this Oval Office meeting was how was Carney going to handle the sometimes delicate face to face interactions with Trump? Because if you are too tough, you can really go into a buzzsaw. And that's what happened when Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian Prime Minister, was here at the very end of February. He was kicked out of the White House because he was too firm, basically. And Carney also faced a lot of political challenge at home. If Trump was going to call him Governor Carney, as he did call Justin Trudeau, the previous Canadian prime minister, govern, he had a very fine line to walk. And he walked it. It worked out okay. He was diplomatic with Trump. He was pretty flattering at the outset. But he did interrupt Trump a couple of times in this public Oval Office interaction that we all got to see, you know, to correct him on a couple of things involving trade and most notably to affirm over and over again that Canada is not for sale, that Canadians are not interested in becoming part of the United States.

[Aaron Blake]

Well, if I may, as you know from real estate, there are some places.

[Michael Birnbaum]

That are never for sale.

[Naftali Bendavid]

That's true.

[Aaron Blake]

We're sitting in one right now. You know, Buckingham palace that you visited as well.

[Naftali Bendavid]

That's true.

[Aaron Blake]

And having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign last several months, it's not for sale, won't be for sale ever.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Trump said, never say never, but never say never.

[Naftali Bendavid]

Never say never.

[Michael Birnbaum]

And Carney shook his head to that and said never. He sort of mouthed the words to reporters, Never, never, never. Right after Trump said that. So it was this interesting dance that you could see. And Trump was not on the offense in this meeting. He made clear that he just really disliked the old Canadian Prime Minister, but that these new guys could do some business. There is one other part of that Carney interaction that was interesting. And, and I didn't put this so much into our coverage because I was only sort of rewatching the video again yesterday. And you just watch Carney's face throughout the interaction as Trump is speaking. And I saw a video that cut out everything but his face and the audio. And so you could really focus in on the emotions playing across his eyes, his mouth. He'd sometimes purse his lips. He'd looked like he wanted to say something, and then he'd hold himself, himself back. And it was notable a Canadian reporter asked him about it afterward and said, what were you thinking as Trump was speaking? And Carney said, it's a good thing that you can't read my mind.

[Aaron Blake]

I wonder if some of these foreign leaders are looking to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer's appearance in the Oval Office recently as an example of what not to do when you're dragged into a situation that you'd rather not be involved in. People can look that up if they're not familiar with what I'm talking about. So, guys, I wanted to turn to another foreign policy related issue that we've talked about a lot on the show in recent weeks, which is Trump's immigration policies and specifically his administration's use of the very old Alien Enemies Act. This is a 1798 law to deport people without due process to a brutal prison in El Salvador. This is, of course, the subject of a lot of court battles right now, some very high stakes court battles, as I've emphasized on this show, because they say a lot about how much the courts are gonna be able to check Trump. Neftali can you just catch us up on where we're at with all this right now?

[Naftali Bendavid]

I mean, the long and short of it is that in the last few days, several federal judges, three in very different districts, have questioned, challenged, blocked the administration's use of that act as a pretext or rationale to deport a lot of people without due process. In order to invoke that act, there has to be an invasion or there has to be a military conflict of.

[Aaron Blake]

Some kind, or predatory incursion, I believe, is the other term in the law.

[Naftali Bendavid]

Right. And what that I think means, you know, to sort of plain meaning of the words, is you have to be invaded by another country. And so President Trump's argument and the Trump administration's argument that, well, you know, this gang, Trent D. Aragua, is actually directed by the Venezuelan government, and therefore this is a military invasion by a foreign country. It was always a long shot. And it's not hugely surprising, and probably not even to the White House itself, that a lot of judges would throw this out. But I think, as we've seen with a lot of press, presidents, but particularly President Trump, their message in the public sphere and in the political arena can be quite different from their message in a courtroom, where they have to make certain arguments and supply certain evidence. And presidents often have a different legal strategy and political strategy. In fact, often they're willing to lose the legal battle because it helps them make their political case. But Trump is in a whole other league when it comes to this. He's, I think, more than willing to lose cases, and then he turns around and blasts judges. I mean, we can just think back to 2020 and the election battles there where Trump and his allies would certain things in public. But when they faced court hearings, they found it very difficult to back up some of their claims. And so I think that's a little bit of what we're seeing right now. And while these are legal losses for President Trump, I'm not 100% sure they're political losses.

[Aaron Blake]

So, Michael, I wanted to dig into this issue of due process, which is really what looms over a lot of these deportation court cases. You know, the idea, should undocumented people have due process? Is this something that the Supreme Court has ruled in favor of many times over? It's also the issue that's at the core of the case involving Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who, of course, was the wrongly deported man who the administration sent to a prison in El Salvador. The courts have said that the administration must facilitate his return, and the administration has resisted doing too much. We saw a couple weeks ago, Trump Secretary of State Marco Rubio say that, quote, of course, everyone has a right to due process, seemingly including undocumented people. But recently, we've seen Trump's very valued senior White House advisor, Stephen Miller, making a very different case, arguing frequently on X about the idea that undocumented people shouldn't have these due process rights. He said, quote, due process guarantees the rights of a criminal defendant facing prosecution, not an illegal alien facing deportation. How difficult of a message is it for the administration to argue this kind of thing, that these people don't, don't benefit from due process?

[Michael Birnbaum]

Well, it's a challenge because part of the fundamental question around due process is just having the chance to affirm the basic facts of who you are. And are you, in fact, not a citizen? Are you, in fact, here illegally? Even that basic idea of having a chance before being put on an airplane and sent to a foreign prison somewhere, that the administration, administration is, in fact, deporting people who are not citizens, that would seem to be a pretty basic issue of court review. So, you know, yes, the administration is saying, or Stephen Miller is saying, we need. There's just, this is such a big problem. We can't have the court processes gum up our efforts to protect Americans. But there's just so much precedent in American history and legal process to say that's not the case. So it's a challenge. And we've had a couple cases in which children who are US Citizens have been put on planes with their parents.

[Aaron Blake]

And had children, ages, I think, 2, 4 and 7, who were U.S. citizens but whose mother was undocumented and were sent with their mother deported from Louisiana.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Right. And so, you know, is there going to be a broader backlash? I'm not sure. I mean, on some. We've seen also that of all the areas where the administration is really going full steam and being incredibly aggressive about their tactics, immigration is the issue where as not as a legal matter, but as a political matter and as a sort of opinion matter, they have the most leeway. And so sometimes when things have gotten too heated in other areas, they've kind of tried to turn focus to immigration to boost their numbers. But even so, I do wonder if there's gonna come a point where they make some mistakes as they push. I mean, we are seeing mistakes happening.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. Kilmar Abrego Garcia is not the only wrongly deported man. There was also a Trump appointed judge who ruled that a second man was deported wrongfully because he was covered under a settlement, that basically he was an unaccompanied minor when he came over and that meant he shouldn't have been deported. So there are now two cases here.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Right. And so as the leg legal rulings stack up against them, is that going to be something that turns the tide?

[Aaron Blake]

Guys, I wanted to ask you about one more area where I think the messaging has been shifting a little bit. And maybe, Michael, you can tell me if you agree with that characterization or not. But that's on the war in Ukraine, there was a lot of time where Trump was criticized for being too harsh on Ukraine and too friendly towards Russia. I think we've started to see maybe some comments that suggested a little bit more pressure is being applied to Russia. On Wednesday, we saw Vice President J.D. vance say that Russia was, quote, asking for too much to end the war. And just last month, we saw Trump himself say that he was, quote, very angry and, quote, pissed off about Putin criticizing the credibility of Zelensky's leadership. He added that the comments were, quote, not going in the right direction. Have you noticed this shift? Do you put any stock in it? And what does this say, about kind of the Trump effort to make good on his process to end this war quickly.

[Michael Birnbaum]

There does seem to be some tonal shift in recent weeks and increasing frustration from the Trump administration that they're not moving more quickly toward a successful peace negotiation. Trump has always, for years and years and years, been pretty tolerant of Russian President Vladimir Putin, interested in finding ways.

[Aaron Blake]

To work together, very rarely criticizing him.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Rarely criticizing him, and interested, very personally sympathetic, I think, to Putin and his aims. And I think we still see that, even as we also see some criticism around the edges of how Putin is handling the continued war and bombardment of Ukraine. I think if you talk to Russia experts and military experts, this was always going to be a radically harder peace settlement to land than Trump claimed on the campaign trail. On the campaign trail, he said he'd turn it around 24 hours on day one, and later he said he'd turn it around In, I think, 100 days or a few months. And the issue is that it does not seem as though there is really any overlap between what Putin is currently willing to settle for and what the Ukrainians can stand and what the international community can tolerate. And so until we see a shift on the. And I'm not sure that we are seeing a shift, it's going to be pretty hard to come up with any kind of compromise. Even though the Ukrainians do say they're willing to come up with some kind of settlement or at least a ceasefire.

[Naftali Bendavid]

I do think that almost every president seems to think that if they just get their counterpart in a room, man to man, they can talk some sense into them. It's a fascinating phenomenon. We saw it with Joe Biden and Bibi Netanyahu. He was just sure that he could talk to Bibi and get him to back off. And George W. Bush was sure that he could talk to Vladimir Putin and look in his eyes and they'd reach some sort of agreement. It's just the way that presidents and presidential aspirants seem to think of themselves. It strikes me as very American, because it often disregards centuries of identity and history and tradition on the part of these foreign leaders who are driven by things other than what Americans might see as a fair deal. And, as Michael was saying, particularly true with Trump and Putin. I think he sees them as sort of comrades who are both targeted by the Russia hoax. And so he sees them as sort of seeing eye to eye. And it also goes to his image as a deal maker, a guy who can sit down and strike a deal. So he's been visibly Extremely frustrated, I think, at the way this is all going for a variety of reasons.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. Michael, I know that you are going to the Middle east next week. You're gonna be traveling with President Trump, I believe, given everything that we've been talking about today. What are some of the things that you're watching for on this trip? What are some of the big questions that we're hoping to answer?

[Michael Birnbaum]

Well, it should be an interesting trip. It's his first big foreign travel of his presidency. He made a very brief TR to Rome for Pope Francis funeral. But, you know, this is a trip to the Mid East. He's not, however, planning to visit Israel, which is the biggest US Ally there. That's an interesting decision and kind of a hit to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. That's not standard practice for a U.S. president. And he's going mostly to do business deals, is what the White House has been suggesting so far. But it's going to be this interesting moment where he hops from one wealthy Gulf monarchy to another. You know, we'll see. Another thing that I'm going to be watching out for is that the Trump Organization and Donald Trump Jr. Eric Trump, have signed a number of business deals in recent weeks in a number of these places. I think the Trump Organization is planning to build a hotel in Doha, Qatar, which is one of the three stops on Trump's travels next week. And, and that's notable. It's pretty unusual. Certainly something I'm going to be keeping an eye out for because that is not standard fare for how presidents operate.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. That's all the time we have for this conversation. Thank you so much, Naftali and Michael.

[Michael Birnbaum]

Thanks, Eric.

[Aaron Blake]

Thank you very much, Naftali. Ben David is senior political correspondent, and Michael Birnbaum is a White House correspondent covering foreign policy and Donald Trump for the Washington Post. And one more thing before we go today, we chatted a little bit at the top of the show about the conclave to choose the next pope. Well, early this afternoon, the white smoke rose from the Vatican and we learned a new pope has indeed been chosen. And in a big surprise, it is the very first American pope. Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost is now Pope Leo xiv. You can check out all of our coverage [e-mail] if you're tuning in via the Campaign Moment show feed, please go follow Postcards Reports and the Seven for even more politics coverage throughout the week. Today's episode was produced by Rennie Svirnovsky and Laura Benshoff. It was mixed by Sam Baer and edited by Lucy Perkins and Sean Sullivan. I'm Aaron Blake. We'll be back tomorrow with more stories from the Washington.

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