Post Reports Episode Summary
The Campaign Moment: Gaetz’s Downfall, Trump’s Mandate
Release Date: November 22, 2024
Hosts: Martine Powers, Aaron Blake, and Leanne Caldwell
Podcast: Post Reports by The Washington Post

1. Introduction and Episode Overview

In this episode of Post Reports, hosts Martine Powers and Aaron Blake, joined by Leanne Caldwell, delve into the latest developments in the political transition following the 2024 election. The discussion centers on the withdrawal of Matt Gaetz as President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Attorney General, the implications of this move, Trump’s subsequent Cabinet picks, and an analysis of the electoral mandate claimed by Trump. Additionally, the hosts engage with listener-submitted questions to provide further insights into the election’s outcomes.

2. Matt Gaetz’s Withdrawal from Attorney General Nomination

Key Points:

• Withdrawal Announcement: Former Congressman Matt Gaetz has withdrawn from consideration as Trump’s Attorney General nominee. Initially announced on Thursday afternoon, Gaetz’s potential nomination was short-lived, drawing comparisons to Anthony Scaramucci’s brief tenure in the Trump White House.

Notable Quotes:

• Martine Powers (00:03): “The big news of this past 24 hours is that former Congressman Matt Gaetz has withdrawn himself as President-elect Donald Trump's pick for Attorney General.”
• Aaron Blake (00:30): “Scaramucci was a very brief member of the Trump White House… And so now we use that as a unit of measurement for things that don't last very long in politics.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Reason for Withdrawal: Leanne Caldwell explains that Gaetz lacked the necessary Senate support, making confirmation improbable. Additionally, Gaetz faced significant unpopularity within the Republican ranks and was subject to multiple investigations, including federal and House Ethics Committee probes.

  • Leanne Caldwell (04:07): “Ultimately, it became clear that he didn't have the votes to pass through the Senate… It became clear it was gonna be harder for them or to roll.”

• Historical Context: The term “Scaramucci” is used to denote a brief political appointment, stemming from Anthony Scaramucci’s 11-day tenure as Trump’s Communications Director.

3. Implications for President-Elect Trump

Key Points:

• Setback for Trump: Gaetz’s withdrawal represents a potential setback for Trump, signaling possible resistance within the Senate against his Cabinet choices.
• Senate Dynamics: The episode discusses the resilience of Senate institutional norms and the presence of Republican senators willing to oppose Trump’s nominations.

Notable Quotes:

• Aaron Blake (07:21): “Republican senators to some degree stood up… They were sending a pretty strong signal that they were not going to support him or they were very skeptical of him.”
• Martine Powers (05:45): “Is this a major setback for him?”

Discussion Highlights:

• Institutional Guardrails: Blake emphasizes that institutional checks within the Senate may continue to pose challenges for Trump’s ambitious nomination strategy.

  • Aaron Blake (07:25): “It was pretty easy for them to stand up. I guess we'll see if they intend to do it on some future things that are very high profile.”

• Strategic Interpretations: Martine Powers introduces an alternative view suggesting that Trump’s approach of nominating controversial figures might be a deliberate strategy to exhaust the Senate’s confirmation options.

  • Martine Powers (08:45): “This is part of his strategy for how he's going to get so many of these controversial and arguably unqualified Cabinet picks through.”

4. Trump’s New Cabinet Selections

Key Points:

• Replacement Nominee: Pam Bondi, former Attorney General of Florida, is now Trump's nominee for Attorney General.
• Other Nominees: The discussion also covers nominees like Dr. Mehmet Oz for Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and Linda McMahon for the Department of Education.

Notable Quotes:

• Aaron Blake (15:12): “I think she's much more confirmable than Matt Gaetz.”
• Leanne Caldwell (16:48): “She is still going to be a very MAGA, you know, Trump person in this role, but at least she might not have criminal allegations in her background.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Pam Bondi’s Nomination: Bondi is seen as a more viable candidate compared to Gaetz, despite some controversies related to her past affiliations and actions.

  • Aaron Blake (15:17): “...she was kind of out there promoting election denial. After the 2020 election... that is going to come up at these confirmation hearings.”

• Celebrity Appointees: The selection of figures like Dr. Oz and Linda McMahon underscores Trump’s preference for high-profile individuals with media presence.

  • Martine Powers (15:28): “Dr. Oz is on the docket… Linda McMahon, who is Trump’s pick to lead the Department of Education.”

• Public and Senate Reaction: While these nominations may face scrutiny over past actions and qualifications, the Senate's current Republican majority could facilitate their confirmation.

5. Analyzing Trump’s Claimed Mandate from the 2024 Election

Key Points:

• Election Results Interpretation: Trump claims a strong mandate based on his electoral victory, but Aaron Blake and Leanne Caldwell analyze the nuances of the election data.
• State Legislative Races: Minimal Republican gains in state legislatures suggest that the election was not a sweeping shift towards the Republican Party.

Notable Quotes:

• Aaron Blake (11:47): “The number of electoral votes he won was larger than Biden in 20 and Trump in 16, the largest number since 2012.”
• Leanne Caldwell (14:14): “Trump is not going to look at the final, final, final results. He is stuck on the narrative that it is a very decisive win.”

Discussion Highlights:

• Electoral College Victory: Initially, Trump’s victory in key swing states and a significant Electoral College margin seemed to reinforce his narrative of a strong mandate.

• Nuanced Outcomes: However, deeper analysis reveals that Republicans made modest gains, often in states Trump won by large margins, and that the House remains largely unchanged.

  • Aaron Blake (13:08): “Republicans barely gained any ground in state legislative races across the... And I think that kind of signifies that this was not a massive shift towards the Republican Party.”

• Mandate vs. Reality: While Trump maintains that his victory signifies robust support for his agenda, the data suggests a more complex picture with limited enthusiasm beyond traditional Republican strongholds.

  • Leanne Caldwell (14:14): “But the thing is that Trump is not going to look at the final, final, final results… he is stuck on the narrative that it is a very decisive win.”

6. Listener Questions and Discussions

Question 1: Political Polarization and Party Extremes

• Question: Dudley from Greensboro, NC asks if the parties view their absolutist wings as problematic, noting that voters prefer nuanced positions over extreme partisan stances.

Response:

• Leanne Caldwell: Highlights that the Democratic Party is currently introspecting its extremes, especially on cultural issues like climate change, while Republicans under Trump continue to push aggressive agendas without perceiving their extremism as a hindrance.
  • Leanne Caldwell (24:03): “Democrats are having conversations about going too far on cultural issues… Republicans, on the other hand, plan to implement their aggressive agenda.”

Question 2: Economic Perceptions Post-Election

• Question: Argentum2435 inquires if Trump voters feel economically worse off during Biden’s presidency, specifically regarding price growth versus wage growth.

Response:

• Aaron Blake: Affirms that high inflation during the early Biden years significantly impacted voters' financial perceptions, even as wages later began to grow. Continued higher prices, such as for eggs, have left a lasting negative impression.
  • Aaron Blake (26:04): “Inflation was very high and that has lingering effects for years afterwards… prices are much higher than they were four years ago.”

Question 3: Voter Turnout in the 2024 Election

• Question: Colleen observes that despite perceptions of massive turnout with long polling lines, candidate vote totals didn’t reflect it. She wonders if this is due to fewer polling places or increased mail voting.

Response:

• Aaron Blake: Clarifies that the 2024 election had high turnout, though slightly less than the record-setting 2020. The increased in-person voting contributed to crowded polling places, while raw vote totals for candidates like Trump and Harris were among the highest ever.

  • Aaron Blake (28:08): “We did still have a high turnout election… We had about 156 million votes this time… These were the second and third highest numbers of raw votes that we have ever seen.”

• Leanne Caldwell: Notes a shift in voting patterns, with Trump mobilizing less frequent Republican voters, altering traditional turnout dynamics.

  • Leanne Caldwell (29:14): “One of the key strategies of the Trump campaign was to turn out people who don't vote very often… Republican voters are showing up more consistently when Trump is on the ballot.”

7. Conclusion and Future Outlook

The episode concludes with the hosts reflecting on the ongoing political transition, emphasizing the importance of staying informed through Post Reports and Aaron Blake’s Campaign Moment newsletter. They acknowledge the complexities of Trump’s Cabinet nominations and the nuanced interpretation of the election results, signaling that the political landscape remains dynamic as Trump prepares to assume office.

Final Remarks:

• Martine Powers (31:53): “Have a great weekend and a great Thanksgiving.”
• Aaron Blake (32:16): Engages in a light-hearted discussion about WWE, highlighting the interplay between politics and popular culture.

Key Takeaways

• Matt Gaetz’s Withdrawal: Reflects potential Senate resistance to Trump’s aggressive nomination strategy.
• Trump’s Cabinet Nominations: Focus on high-profile, media-savvy individuals, balancing loyalty with confirmability.
• Election Mandate Analysis: While Trump claims a strong mandate, data indicates limited shifts towards the Republican Party beyond traditional bases.
• Voter Behavior Shifts: Trump’s strategy has mobilized less frequent voters, altering traditional partisan turnout patterns.
• Economic Concerns: Persistent inflation has significantly impacted voter perceptions of economic well-being.
• Political Polarization: Both parties continue to grapple with managing their more extreme factions amidst voter preferences for nuanced policies.

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the episode, providing a clear understanding for those who have not listened to the podcast.