The Trump honeymoon is ending

Summary

Post Reports: The Trump Honeymoon is Ending Hosted by Martine Powers and Elahe Izadi | Released on February 21, 2025

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Introduction In this episode of Post Reports, host Aaron Blake delves into the declining public approval of President Donald Trump, focusing on his recent policy shifts and their repercussions within the Republican Party and broader American society. Joined by congressional reporter Liz Goodwin and Pentagon correspondent Dan Lamoth, the discussion uncovers the complexities of Trump’s administration, especially regarding foreign policy, government spending cuts, and the evolving dynamics within the GOP.

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Trump’s Shift on Ukraine and Foreign Policy

The episode kicks off with a critical examination of President Trump’s recent stance on Ukraine and its President, Volodymyr Zelensky. After the U.S. engaged in high-level talks with Russia without inviting Zelensky, Trump echoed Russia’s narrative, attributing blame for the Ukraine conflict to Ukraine itself.

Notable Quote:

• Dan Lamoth [02:16]: “I think I have the power to end this war and I think it’s going very well. But today I heard, oh, well, we weren’t invited. Well, you’ve been there for three years. You should have ended it.”

Lamoth further dissects Trump’s false claim labeling Zelensky as a “dictator,” clarifying that while Ukraine has not held recent elections due to the war, the term misrepresents Zelensky’s leadership and Ukraine’s democratic processes.

Notable Quote:

• Dan Lamoth [03:19]: “Yes, it’s true. There hasn’t been an election in quite some time. There's also been a discussion within Ukraine... we have a five-alarm fire on our hands at the moment.”

The discussion highlights the unprecedented nature of the U.S. negotiating with Russia without key allies at the table, drawing parallels to the Trump administration’s negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan, which ultimately led to unstable outcomes.

Notable Quote:

• Dan Lamoth [04:04]: “...they ended up with a deal that was not really workable from the Afghan point of view. And that was a troubled ally in a lot of ways, but it still created a situation that was kind of a house of cards that eventually toppled.”

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Republican Senators’ Response to Trump’s Foreign Policy

Liz Goodwin provides insights into the unease among Senate Republicans regarding Trump’s comments on Ukraine. While some GOP senators maintain strong support for Ukraine and opposition to Russia’s aggression, there is a noticeable split between more hawkish senators and those aligned with Trump’s “America First” ideology.

Notable Quote:

• Liz Goodwin [05:13]: “There is a split even among Republican senators who are more hawkish than their House counterparts. There are some Republican senators who are fully on the America first train and who talk about Zelensky the same way Trump does.”

Goodwin observes that while many Republican senators publicly uphold Ukraine, they refrain from directly criticizing Trump, possibly to avoid internal party conflicts or backlash from the MAGA movement.

Notable Quote:

• Liz Goodwin [07:30]: “...they portrayed Russia as the greatest geopolitical threat, or at least one of the greatest, and Putin is the aggressor... like Roger Wicker uses... There wasn't a lot of, like, actual policy prescriptions coming out of Senate Republicans.”

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Public Opinion and Polling on Trump’s Policies

Aaron Blake introduces new Washington Post polling data that indicates a significant decline in Trump’s popularity, with approval ratings dropping to the mid-40s—contrary to the so-called "honeymoon period" of his presidency.

Notable Quote:

• Dan Lamoth [11:47]: “I would say it's roughly been a split. It probably still is a split.”

The hosts engage in an interactive segment where Liz and Dan predict public approval of various Trump policies based on the polling data. Key findings include:

• Mass Deportations: Slight majority support (51%) without considering specific demographics affected.

  Notable Quote:

  • Aaron Blake [12:43]: “The Washington Post poll showed that 51% supported the idea of deporting the 11 million or so undocumented immigrants in this country.”

• Tariffs on Mexico and Canada: Highly unpopular, with a 2-to-1 ratio against.

  Notable Quote:

  • Aaron Blake [13:25]: “People generally liked the idea of tariffs when Trump was campaigning, but now they're about 2 to 1 unpopular.”

• Firing Federal Workers: Significantly unpopular, with 59% opposition.

  Notable Quote:

  • Aaron Blake [13:57]: “It showed that was 21 points unpopular, 59% to 38%.”

• Elon Musk’s Involvement in Government Efficiency: Poorly received, with Musk’s personal image 15 points underwater.

  Notable Quote:

  • Dan Lamoth [15:04]: “I think he's probably become sort of a shield in some ways for the president.”

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Government Spending Cuts and Republican Unease

The conversation shifts to Trump’s aggressive efforts to cut government spending, spearheaded by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Liz Goodwin outlines how these cuts, executed through executive orders and Musk’s initiatives, are causing significant concerns among Republican senators who fear the impact on their districts.

Notable Quote:

• Liz Goodwin [19:33]: “...senators... are feeling frantic lobbying to make sure that programs that are important to their states are not permanently cut or are unfrozen.”

Goodwin highlights specific instances, such as Senator Shelley Moore Capito’s efforts to protect green school bus programs in West Virginia and Katie Britt’s lobbying to maintain funding for Alabama universities.

Notable Quote:

• Liz Goodwin [20:43]: “...Katie Britt in Alabama... has been lobbying the HHS Cabinet Secretary to make sure that funding is still flowing to universities in Alabama.”

The discussion also touches on the legal ambiguities surrounding the administration’s ability to impound funds without Congressional approval, referencing the Impoundment Control Act and potential legal challenges.

Notable Quote:

• Liz Goodwin [24:38]: “...some of these freezes and definitely some of the cancellations of funds, is illegal. If these procedures aren't followed... we'll see.”

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Impact on the Defense Budget and National Security

Dan Lamoth discusses the Pentagon’s plans for significant budget cuts, which could amount to $50 billion annually over the next five years. These cuts are unprecedented, as defense budgets have traditionally grown steadily. Lamoth anticipates that such drastic reductions will lead to tough decisions on military programs and force structures, potentially affecting units tied to various congressional districts.

Notable Quote:

• Dan Lamoth [30:18]: “...seeing a discussion... we may have to draw down the size of the army by 5,000 soldiers, 10,000 soldiers...”

Lamoth emphasizes the political implications of these cuts, questioning whether the GOP can justify reducing military strength while maintaining national security.

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Conclusion and Future Implications

Aaron Blake wraps up the episode by summarizing the challenges facing the Trump administration as its initial popularity wanes amidst controversial policies and internal GOP conflicts. The ongoing disputes over government spending cuts, foreign policy shifts, and legal battles over fund impoundment suggest a turbulent path ahead for Trump’s presidency.

Final Notable Quote:

• Aaron Blake [31:43]: “...it is something that’s going to be fascinating to watch, but that’s all we have time for for today’s episode.”

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Key Takeaways:

1. Declining Approval: President Trump’s approval ratings are slipping, with a majority of Americans disapproving of his presidency.
2. Controversial Policies: Policies such as mass deportations and tariffs are largely unpopular, while support fluctuates based on implementation specifics.
3. GOP Tensions: Republican senators are increasingly uneasy with Trump’s administration, especially regarding government spending cuts impacting their districts.
4. Legal Challenges: The administration’s attempts to impound funds without Congressional consent may face significant legal hurdles.
5. Defense Cuts: Potential massive reductions in the defense budget could have profound implications for national security and partisan relations.

For a more detailed analysis, listen to the full episode of Post Reports or visit WashingtonPost.com.

Transcript

[Aaron Blake]

Dan and Liz, how do you guys feel about polling? Pro or anti?

[Liz Goodwin]

I'm so anti. Anti polling as a political reporter now for too many presidential cycles. I hate how much I still look at it and obsessed with it. It just makes no sense. It's the definition of insanity at this point.

[Aaron Blake]

Well, Liz, I have bad news for you. We are going to be playing a little bit of a game today. We're with polling.

[Liz Goodwin]

No, I'll play. I'll play. I just in my heart I'll feel grumpy.

[Aaron Blake]

Dan, what do you think?

[Dan Lamoth]

Yeah, I mean, I guess I see it as a data point, but one that if people take it too seriously, they're prone to looking silly later.

[Aaron Blake]

From the newsroom of the Washington Post, this is Post Reports. I'm Aaron Blake, senior political reporter and host of our weekly Politics roundtables. It's Friday, February 21st. I'm joined this week by Liz Goodwin, who's a congressional reporter who covers the Senate here at the Post. Hey, Liz.

[Liz Goodwin]

Hello.

[Aaron Blake]

And we're also here with Dan Lamoth, who covers the US Military and the Pentagon. Hey, Dan.

[Dan Lamoth]

Hey. Thank you.

[Aaron Blake]

So today we're going to be talking about a few big stories from the week in politics. We have President Donald Trump's sharp turn against Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Then there's new Washington Post polling that unpacks just how popular and in most cases unpopular some of Donald Trump's rapid fire policymaking has been so far. And finally, we have some reporting from Liz that some Republican members of Congress are pretty quietly asking for their districts to be spared from the government spending cuts forged by Trump and his ally, Elon Musk. To start this week, the US Engaged in high level talks with Russia for the first time since that country invaded Ukraine three years ago. And and crucially, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not invited to those talks and he criticized Trump for that. Afterwards, Trump essentially picked up Russia's line that the war is Ukraine's fault rather than Russia's and talked about this as if Russia had not invaded Ukraine. Let's hear that tape.

[Dan Lamoth]

I think I have the power to end this war and I think it's going very well. But today I heard, oh, well, we weren't invited. Well, you've been there for three years. You should have ended it.

[Aaron Blake]

Three years.

[Dan Lamoth]

You should have never started it.

[Aaron Blake]

So, Dan, Trump also accused Zelensky falsely of being a, quote, dictator in a social media post. You've been covering the war in Ukraine a lot. Can you Give us a little bit of a fact check about the veracity of Trump's statements here. How much do they reflect the reality of this conflict?

[Dan Lamoth]

Yeah, I mean, just on their face. Generally, when you're invaded by another army, you're not the one that started the war. Just the most basic of facts involving this war that was jarring to anyone covering this and anyone that's kind of looking for where these negotiations and the policy discussion might go in coming weeks.

[Aaron Blake]

And what about the dictator claim? Trump said in his social media post, Zelenskyy is a, quote, dictator without elections, basically alluding to the fact that he hadn't stood for reelection since the war started.

[Dan Lamoth]

Yes, it's true. There hasn't been an election in quite some time. There's also been a discussion within Ukraine in which a lot of Ukrainian officials, including people that would potentially run for that office, all have said, let's basically deal with this later. We have a five alarm fire on our hands at the moment.

[Aaron Blake]

And Dan, just big picture, the U.S. of course, met with Russia this week, not only without Ukraine, but without European allies at the table as well, which feels like a big foreign policy shift. The idea that the United States would be negotiating with Russia and not have these other people with a significant stake in a resolution at the table. What's been the reaction from foreign policy circles, the US Military community, places like that, to this development?

[Dan Lamoth]

I've heard a lot of concern, and I think it actually in some ways echoes the war in Afghanistan and the way that ended where you had the Trump administration negotiating with the Taliban and the Afghan government boxed out of that process. You ended up with a deal that was not really workable from the Afghan point of view. And that was a troubled ally in a lot of ways, but it still created a situation that was kind of a house of cards that eventually toppled.

[Aaron Blake]

Liz, you cover the Senate, as I noted earlier, and there are a fair number of Republicans in the Senate who feel very strongly about standing by Ukraine and combating Russia's aggression in that region. There is, of course, concern that if it takes a significant portion of Ukraine, that it wouldn't stop there, it would go further into Eastern Europe. And foreign policy, I should emphasize, is something that in Trump's first term was something that Republican senators actually, on a number of occasions, did stand up to him on. What have you made of the reactions of Republican senators to the things that Trump is saying about Ukraine right now?

[Liz Goodwin]

Yeah, it's been an uncomfortable week for Senate Republicans on foreign policy in particular, because they all go to Munich. A lot of the Republican senators go to this international security conference, and they talk to all their European allies and they come back and all these comments are happening that are just antithetical to what they've been saying since the. The invasion. And obviously, there is a split even among Republican senators who are more hawkish than their House counterparts. There are some Republican senators who are fully on the America first train and who talk about Zelensky the same way Trump does. But I would say it's still a majority of Republican senators who portray Russia as the greatest geopolitical threat, or at least one of the greatest, and Putin is the aggressor and he should be tried for war crimes, etc. Like, this is the kind of language that, for example, Roger Wicker uses, who chairs the Armed Services Committee there. And there was pushback from these people. They weren't saying, you know, Trump shouldn't say this or Ukraine should be at the table. There wasn't a lot of, like, actual policy prescriptions coming out of Senate Republicans. But they were saying, like, listen, Ukraine got invaded, and Susan Collins wears a Ukraine flag pin on her, on her suit. Like, that's how much she's into this. And she's kind of like, Zelensky's so courageous. And so there were a lot of them kind of standing up for Zelensky. I don't know what that means in terms of are they going to do anything?

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah, that's the question I had. I was really struck, and I looked at these reactions pretty closely. They basically stated their own principles, but without saying the president is wrong about this or this is counterproductive and this is harming a US Ally, like the kinds of things that you might expect them to say when it's an issue that a lot of them feel very strongly about. And I just kind of wonder. We've talked a lot on this show, and we're going to talk a little bit later about the idea that Republicans don't like to stand up to Trump. But, like, do they feel like this kind of gentle massaging of the issue is actually more likely to get what they want, or have they just kind of lost the desire to really fight him in any public way?

[Liz Goodwin]

Yeah, I think that's a good question. I mean, for example, his Cabinet, there were a lot of nominees there that were pretty controversial. There's a handful of them that it wasn't clear they were going to get through. And at the end of the day, he got his whole Cabinet because Senate Republicans, you know, gave it to Him. Right. They didn't stand in the way with the exception of Matt Gaetz, who withdrew. So I think to me, like, if there was something they wanted, that would have been the biggest leverage point, like if they wanted some kind of commitment about how he treats European allies or Zelenskyy or whatever. They had a lot of leverage with like the Hegseth confirmation or whichever confirmation that was like a little bit shaky. I think just watching all those confirmations kind of sail through makes me think that they don't, they don't want to extract anything right now. They're not willing to pay the political price to actually extract something that Trump doesn't want to give.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. And of course, saying anything critical of Trump is an entry point to getting lots of pushback. The MAGA movement. Dan, I wanted to ask you about comments from one of these Republican senators that we're talking about. It was from Senator Kevin Kramer, who's a Republican from North Dakota. And his reaction to these comments was basically like, what Trump is saying is false. Yes. But also, I don't know whether this is part of some kind of negotiation. And I think that's a kind of common refrain from Republicans. And maybe they believe that this is kind of a ploy to get Ukraine to make some concessions, maybe bring them more earnestly to the table and try to bring an end to this conflict. I just wondered what you make of the argument that they're kind of trying to force Ukraine's hand here and how that's going to be received given this is a US Ally.

[Dan Lamoth]

I think sort of two ways of looking at that. One is that there's sort of a long term track record of Trump saying things that are outside the bounds of norms and then them trying to walk it back to something that makes sense. The second piece is that, yes, other members of the administration, in rehearsed remarks over the span of the previous 10 days, including Secretary Hegseth, when I was in Europe, made note of the fact that basically it is not reasonable or is not practical that Ukraine can get back to its old borders, which means Crimean peninsula, which means the eastern part of the country. So, yeah, I mean, I think the pitch is basically, at some point you're going to have to take what you've got and hope that you can get a peace deal with that. That's a hard thing for Ukraine to stomach, but there is some reality to it being very difficult to think that Russia is going to turn around and go home.

[Aaron Blake]

Right. Defense Secretary Pete Higseth, of course, also mentioned the idea that Russia, Ukraine joining NATO was not realistic. And that got a lot of pushback from certain corners of the foreign policy community, certainly Western allies. The argument was that he was essentially making concessions ahead of these negotiations, and he later walked those back. So, guys, we've talked a lot about how Republicans are not exactly anxious to voice their displeasure with Trump these days, but some new polling suggests that the public is another story. This week, the Washington Post published a new polling that tested Trump's various actions and proposals. And, Liz and Dan, I wanted to try something a little bit different today and ask you both to play a little game with me to unpack some of these findings. How do you guys feel about that?

[Liz Goodwin]

Amazing.

[Dan Lamoth]

Let's give it a whirl.

[Aaron Blake]

Amazing. I like the enthusiasm. I like the manufactured enthusiasm that Liz just showed me. So I'm gonna name a policy or topic, and I wanted you to tell me if you think this is playing well with the American people, if it's popular, or if this is something that the American people don't seem to like according to our new polls. Let's see if you guys have the finger on the pulse of the American people. Oh, boy. First up is Donald Trump himself. Do you guys think that he is popular or unpopular?

[Liz Goodwin]

What are we saying? Does popular mean it has to be 50%?

[Aaron Blake]

Like more people like him than dislike him?

[Liz Goodwin]

Oh, yes, Dan.

[Dan Lamoth]

I would say it's roughly been a split. It probably still is a split.

[Aaron Blake]

So Trump is getting less popular, and a majority of Americans now disapprove of his presidency. Early in his second term, he actually had some of his best numbers ever. But in recent days, we've seen a number of polls showing his approval rating dropping into the mid-40s. I think it's worth noting that even Trump's high approval ratings for himself were historically pretty low for this, quote, unquote, honeymoon period. So we are seeing some slippage in his image ratings. Next, I wanted to ask you guys about mass deportations. What do you guys think the public's reaction to this idea is right now?

[Liz Goodwin]

I would say slightly more support than don't support.

[Aaron Blake]

Dan.

[Dan Lamoth]

Yeah, I think there is some level of support for that in the country. I think sometimes the nuance and mechanics of how is a separate conversation.

[Aaron Blake]

Dan. That's exactly right, and that's the point I wanted to make. So the Washington Post poll showed that 51% supported the idea of deporting the 11 million or so undocumented immigrants in this country. But what I was really struck by, and this is something other Polls have shown before is that support drops off a cliff when you name specific types of people who would be deported. People like those without criminal records, people who came as kids or parents who have US Citizen children. Those are all very strongly unpopular and I think gets at the potential problems with a real mass deportation operation. Next, guys, I wanted to ask you about 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada.

[Liz Goodwin]

Unpopular.

[Dan Lamoth]

Yeah, same.

[Aaron Blake]

Yes. And this is, I think, a big story in these polls because people generally liked the idea of tariffs when Trump was campaigning, but now they're about 2 to 1 unpopular, at least when you talk about the Mexico and Canada tariffs, which Trump has at least briefly paused this month. Seven in 10 people in the Post poll said that they expected that these tariffs would increase the prices they pay for regular household goods. Okay, guys, next one. Firing large numbers of federal government workers.

[Liz Goodwin]

Hmm. I'm gonna say unpopular. I don't know, though, Dan.

[Dan Lamoth]

Data I seen would suggest that it's probably got at least a slim majority. And then I think you again get into, okay, well, what services would you like to not have work? Right. And that's probably a separate conversation.

[Aaron Blake]

So firing lots of people, it turns out, has been pretty unpopular so far. I think you've got the right impulse here, Dan. I was actually kind of surprised by the numbers in the Post poll because it did ask a broad question about firing large numbers of federal government workers, and it showed that was 21 points unpopular, 59% to 38%. Which brings us to the last thing I'll ask you guys about. The game's almost over. Elon Musk. How do you think the American people view Elon Musk and what he's doing with the Department of Government Efficiency?

[Liz Goodwin]

I would say he's less popular than Trump. So he must be unpopular if Trump's only in the mid-40s.

[Aaron Blake]

Dan?

[Dan Lamoth]

Yeah. What? I agree with that. I think he's probably become sort of a shield in some ways for the president.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah, I think that's a good read on the situation. Musk is increasingly seemingly a problem for the Trump administration. We've seen Musk in recent weeks kind of falling out of favor with the American public. But our poll actually shows Americans say two to one that Musk having a prominent role in shutting down federal government programs was something that they didn't like. His personal Image is also 15 points underwater. So I think we're seeing why Democrats are focused so much on Musk, because he is less popular than Trump is right now, and he's certainly harnessed a Very big profile in the Trump administration right now.

[Liz Goodwin]

So what do we win?

[Aaron Blake]

You know, I think what you win is the gratitude of our listeners for being such good guessers. But you guys did a very nice job. And if people want to read about these numbers and more, they can read my story. It's called Trump's Honeymoon is Over. And you can find that on the Washington Post.com so just to kind of wrap up this segment, you might have seen a pattern emerge here, and that's that a lot of the splashy policies that Trump has rolled out in his first month are actually pretty unpopular. The only things that do seem to be popular are like tariffs on China, the mass deportation operation. But we talked about the caveats on that one. Liz, is there concern in the Republican Party that all these controversial actions that he's taking are eventually gonna be a problem for them? And is that something that Republicans are starting to talk about in Congress right now?

[Liz Goodwin]

I think Senate Republicans are starting to get nervous about all these funding freezes for sure, because that's something that really affects, like, people in their states or their districts. The other thing I will say it's a little bit down the road, but they passed this budget resolution in the middle of the night, the Senate did. And it's supposed to Thursday night into Friday morning. Yes, Thursday night, yes. And so it's supposed to provide a ton of money for some of these deportations and border stuff. And in order to fund it and in order to fund tax cuts, which they're hoping to do in the next bill, there's a need to cut things. Right. And a lot of Republican lawmakers are starting to say, like, wait, how are we going to do all this border money and these tax cuts and not cut Medicaid? And that is something that people are openly nervous about now. Just kind of more moderate Republicans are like, I just don't know about Medicaid cuts.

[Aaron Blake]

And that's a good segue to what we're going to be talking about next, which is how those cuts to the federal government are hitting Republican districts and how those Republicans are responding. We'll be right back.

[Tom Sytsima]

My name is Tom Sytsima, and I am the food critic for the Washington Post. I think a lot of great restaurant meals are like great books, films, or concerts. You don't necessarily need them to live, but don't they make life more worth living? I see myself as sort of a reader advocate. Going in there, spending the Post money, coming back and giving you the green light, yield sign or a stop sign. I like to be seen as sort of the best friend who happens to eat out a lot more than they do. I eat in about 10 restaurants a week, and I like creating memories for people and helping them create memories, whether those are first date, a 50th anniversary, grandma's 90th birthday, if you have special needs, whether they're dietary or otherwise. When you subscribe to the Washington Post, you support this kind of journalism. Learn more at subscribe the Washington Post.com I'm Tom Sytsima, and I'm one of the people behind the Post.

[Aaron Blake]

So, guys, one major theme of Trump's second term that we've touched on a lot is his sweeping effort to cut government spending. This has, of course, been a big initiative of Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency. And this week, Liz, you reported a story that I thought was really interesting about how those cuts are being received by members of the Republican Party and some kind of unease that is emerging with this level of cutting that's taking place. Can you just run through your reporting and what the major findings were?

[Liz Goodwin]

Basically a combination of all these executive orders that have frozen broad swaths of funding that Congress has already appropriated and the Doge Service, Elon Musk's group that is going through canceling contracts, they're getting into the pipes of every agency and they're just canceling things or freezing things, which there's a lot less information about how much is going on there. But senators, you know, kind of like the People magazine spread, like, senators, they're just like us. Like, they also are trying to figure out what is going on, what has been frozen, what is permanently gone versus what's going to get released. And so even as they're kind of publicly saying like, wow, we love all these cuts, they're finding fraud and waste. This is beautiful. Behind the scenes, they're like frantically lobbying to make sure that programs that are important to their states are not permanently cut or are unfrozen. So you have Shelley Moore, capito, in West Virginia. There's green school buses, electric school buses that are manufactured in her state. So big employer, very important there, that has been frozen under one of these green energy eos.

[Aaron Blake]

Executive orders.

[Liz Goodwin]

Executive orders, yes. And so she's been desperately trying to talk to Lee Zeldin at the Environmental Protection Agency, who runs it, and get him to unfreeze that, for example. There's so many examples like this. And the people who are lobbying for it span the gamut. It's not just the moderate senators. It's you know, there's Katie Britt in Alabama, who's very much a Trump ally. She's tried to talk to RFK Jr. To get the NIH, the Health and.

[Aaron Blake]

Human Services Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

[Liz Goodwin]

Yes. Yeah. So she's been lobbying the HHS Cabinet Secretary to make sure that funding is still flowing to universities in Alabama at the same level that it has been. There's just so many stories like this. So I think the other thing they're starting to speak up more about is just the fact that there's a lot of uncertainty and chaos right now because it's unclear what freezes are permanent. Sometimes there's a situation where a program is granted a waiver by the cabinet secretary or whoever, and then the funding still is not flowing. Like, there's a lot of questions right now about Marco Rubio has said that.

[Aaron Blake]

The secretary of State, Food for Peace.

[Liz Goodwin]

Which is a program that lets US Farmers sell their food to the government that then distributes it to needy, hungry people in other countries. That is supposed to be flowing. Now. Everything about that is supposed to be fine because no one wanted to make the farmers mad. But there's still problems being reported with that. So there's, I think, also just the confusion. The chaos is starting to get to Republican senators, even if they're not really, most of them aren't willing to say anything about it.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. How much of this is like, I think we've seen this over and over again. Everybody likes to talk broadly about cutting the size of government, but once you actually get into the details, it's kind of a minefield. Right. They just, there's going to be something for lots of people to hate when you're getting rid of all of these programs and, you know, firing people and, you know, are some of these people being fired veterans and things like that? Like, is there just a sense setting in that, like the costs of doing all of this and the process is just kind of creating a real headaches for these Republican members of Congress.

[Liz Goodwin]

Yeah. I think, I mean, honestly, one of the arguments for the pro doge people is that Congress doesn't have the political will to make the kind of cuts to get the country back on track fiscally. Because no one wants, like you're saying, no one wants to vote for cuts. Right. For any program. Like it touches some state.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. We had a big deficit commission during the Obama administration, the Simpson Bowles Commission, which came out with a series of recommendations that Congress basically just then ignored.

[Liz Goodwin]

Right, right. Yeah. And I think it's been interesting Because Senator Rand Paul, kind of a libertarian from Kentucky, has been saying, like, listen, guys, you know, these cuts are great that Doge are making, but we, we have to vote on them. Like, Congress has to vote a rescission package to say we're all okay with these cuts, we're approving them because he is kind of a constitutionalist and he knows what the Empowerment Control act says. That says exactly what the executive can do when it comes to not spending funds that Congress has appropriated. And it's funny to watch because I feel like a lot of Republican senators are like, oh, my gosh, shut up. Because no one want to have to vote on this or deal with it.

[Aaron Blake]

Liz, I wanted to touch on a word that you said, which is impoundment. And I know that a few listeners eyes probably just rolled back into their heads and they might have fallen asleep.

[Liz Goodwin]

Yeah.

[Aaron Blake]

But this is important, right? This is going to be a significant subplot moving forward. Can you just describe what that is in layman's terms, and what the significance of it is? Moving forward?

[Liz Goodwin]

Yes, yes, I will lull the listeners into their.

[Aaron Blake]

We'll make it exciting.

[Liz Goodwin]

Yeah. So basically, well, something unusual about Trump and the administration is they kind of ran on this idea, which is sort of a wonky idea, right. That, like, they should be able to impound funds that Congress appropriates. So if Congress says, we want to give foreign aid, for example, we think we should give $10 billion in foreign aid to this place or something, that the executive should have the power to say, nope, I don't like that, and just not spend it. And so Richard Nixon tried a version of this back in the day, prompting Congress to pass the Impoundment Control act, which basically lays out, like, procedures for what needs to happen if the executive tries to not spend something. So that's why Rand Paul is saying, you need to send this in a recision package, which would just say, like, you appropriated xyz, I'm not spending it. Are you cool with that? And then Congress would pass it, and then it's all kosher. Like, I think most legal scholars think that what's happening now, at least some of these freezes and definitely some of the cancellations of funds, is illegal. If these procedures aren't followed, if it's not sent back as a rescission package, and if Congress does not approve it and Trump people kind of push back on that and say we have a different interpretation of the Impoundment Control act or whatever, but it's been upheld in the courts several times. So we'll see.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. And that's the tension here. Like, the things that the Trump administration is doing have been halted by the courts because they pretty transparently violate the existing law that's on the books. But then the Trump administration says, well, we don't think that law is constitutional. And so there's a whole court process that takes place to decide who is right about this. And basically, that's what the administration is trying to give itself more power by challenging these laws, by doing these things. Right, right. So, Liz, this might be a basic question to you, but it's something that I've been thinking about a lot, which is, isn't the upshot of this, you know, to the extent that the Trump administration is allowed to just freeze the things that it doesn't want to spend, you know, isn't that just gonna mean that Republican, you know, things that Republicans want in Republican districts get, you know, a pass while Democratic priorities don't get a pass? And that, you know, we could see kind of a whiplash in what actually gets spent every four to eight years when the administration changes hands. Like, isn't this just going to kind of politicize the spending of government money even more than we're already seeing so far?

[Liz Goodwin]

Yeah. Well, this was like, my favorite quote in the story was, you know, Tommy Tuberville, the Alabama senator, close Trump ally. A bunch of reporters were asking about this, and he was like, yeah, you might have to go to Elon Musk and say, you know, there's a bridge in Mobile that I really like. Can you unfreeze that and sort of like, lobby for your own earmarks? Like, again, to Elon Musk.

[Aaron Blake]

And he was doing it once when you pass the bill and then once when the money's actually getting spent.

[Liz Goodwin]

And then some experts were saying that they worried that that would create a favor factory atmosphere where if you're in good standing with the administration, your projects are more likely to get unfrozen or whatever. And I think that's. That is a concern that people have.

[Dan Lamoth]

If I could spin us ahead a bit, we started reporting in the last couple of days about the Pentagon plans for very steep budget cuts that seem to be on the table. 50 billion with a B per year over the next five years, basically. And that initial story got pretty stark pushback from the Pentagon in the last day, basically saying, this isn't cuts, this is reinvestment, which is also true, but those programs will still be cut. And when you start talking that level of cuts, the initial casting of this is oh, we're going to cut DEI programs which apparently is to the tune of $50 billion. Like the math doesn't math there. So we're waiting to see what that actually looks like in reality. But I would anticipate that as this comes back, when you're asking each of the armed services to come up with 8% in potential cuts, all of the initial reporting I've done so far would indicate that includes things like specific weapons programs that have tie back to numerous congressional districts, that it would include potentially force structure which is say units of the military. You know, do you cut helicopter squadron here or a Striker squadron there or something like that, which ties back to these districts of like, hey, we're going to chop a couple thousand people out of your district here and there. All of these things have real world consequences and there's a case to be made that they need to invest in missile defense and some of the other things that they appear to prioritize here. But there's still pain ahead and very sharp discussions on this subject.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah, Dan, I wanted to ask you some more about that story because I think it crystallizes a lot of the potential problems with all these cuts, the political problems, I should say. You know, as somebody who covers this kind of thing and has for a long time, how unusual is the idea of these big cuts, reallocations, whatever you want to call them. I think that the trend for many years has been that the defense budget grows and it just kind of repeatedly grows. What's the kind of unusual factor here?

[Dan Lamoth]

I think the most striking thing to me is that the Republicans are taking this effort, right?

[Aaron Blake]

It used to be Democrats who would push for Bernie Sanders Obama administration, for instance.

[Dan Lamoth]

They went in, they cut the size of the military, actually drew down the number of troops in the Marine Corps and the army in particular, and they also cut some very expensive programs. One thing that comes to mind is the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle was this big armored vehicle that was supposed to be able to go from ships to shore in an invasion, replace some very old vehicles that they had. It ended up way over budget, way after schedule. And then Defense Secretary Bob Gates put it on the chopping block. That was one of the things that went. But those sorts of decisions generally were criticized by a lot of the Republicans at the time. So to now see a discussion, and I think this is where it'll come into play in coming days. Do they come back 10 days from now or a month from now and say, hey, we're actually probably going to have to draw down the size of the army by 5,000 soldiers, 10,000 soldiers, something like that. And then is that palatable in 2025? And I'm waiting to see how that plays out and how it's cast. Can they make the case that that's good use of taxpayer dollars and still on strong on national security? And I think you're going to see some bartering on the Hill on this.

[Aaron Blake]

Yeah. It's going to be something that's fascinating to watch, but that's all we have time for for today's episode. Thank you so much, Dan and Liz.

[Liz Goodwin]

Thanks for having us.

[Dan Lamoth]

Thank you.

[Aaron Blake]

Liz Goodwin covers the Senate for the Post and Dan Lamoth covers the US Military and the Pentagon. If you're tuning in via the Campaign Moment show feed, please make sure that you're also following Post reports and the Seven for even more politics coverage throughout the week. Today's episode was produced by Laura Benshoff and mixed by Justin Gerrish. It was edited by Lucy Perkins and Rachel Van Dongen. Our team also includes Maggie Penman, Rena Flores, Ted Muldoon, Alana Gordon, Ariel Plotnik, Bishop Sand, Rennie Swanofsky, Sabby Robinson, Emma Talkov, Shawn Carter, Peter Bresnan, Alison Michaels, Renita Jablonski, Alahia Izadi and Martine Powers. I'm Aaron Blake. Have a great weekend.