Trump's renewed Epstein problems, plus takeaways from the shutdown

Summary

Post Reports — November 14, 2025

Episode: Trump's renewed Epstein problems, plus takeaways from the shutdown
Host: Colby Itkowitz ([C]), with guests Dan Marica ([B]) and Matthew Choi ([A])

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Overview

This episode explores two headline issues:

1. The political fallout from newly released Jeffrey Epstein emails implicating Donald Trump
2. Key takeaways from the end of the longest-ever federal government shutdown, and President Trump’s conspicuously hands-off approach.

Insightful analysis unpacks the significance of the Epstein emails, how parties are leveraging them, and the mounting pressure within the GOP. The shutdown recap examines tactical lessons, shifting political alliances, and the boiling importance of affordability as a campaign issue—plus what’s next for both parties heading toward the 2026 midterms.

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1. The Renewed Epstein Scandal: What’s in the Emails?

[00:36 – 13:31]

Background on Epstein and Trump’s Relationship

• Epstein’s network: Wealthy financier, had friendships with many powerful men including Trump, Bill Clinton, and Prince Andrew.
• Epstein Scandal: Charged with sex trafficking of minors, died by suicide in jail; his social circle has always fueled media and political controversy.
• Republican playbook: Epstein’s ties were used by the GOP to attack Democrats, especially the Clintons, in 2016.

“Trump has denied knowing about Epstein’s illegal behavior… but over the years, he has made comments that kind of hint at Epstein’s affinity for young girls.”
—Dan Marica ([B]), [02:08]

Contents and Impact of the New Emails

• The bombshell: Recently released emails from Epstein’s estate (via House Oversight Committee subpoena) suggest Trump may have spent time alone with one of Epstein’s victims in 2011, potentially contradicting Trump’s claims of early disassociation.
• Political context: House Democrats strategically released these as the House returned from a prolonged shutdown.
• Discharge Petition: Initiated to force a House vote compelling the DOJ to release Epstein files (not just those from the estate, but the federal investigation too).
• Bipartisan angst: Many Republicans won office on Epstein transparency pledges—putting pressure on them to align with their base, or with Trump, who now resists further release.

“A lot of the kind of anger and frustration on the Republican base to get these files out is because… why did you not do what you said you were gonna do?”
—Matthew Choi ([A]), [07:52]

GOP & White House Response

• Trump’s stance: Calls the scandal a “massive hoax,” not directly claiming the emails are fabricated but refusing to engage substantively.
• Republican defense: Accuse Democrats of cherry-picking files to target the GOP, highlighting that some prominent Democrats also had ties to Epstein.
• Intraparty drama: Republicans put heavy pressure on colleagues to oppose the discharge petition. Notably, Rep. Lauren Boebert was summoned to the White House’s Situation Room, but didn’t rescind her support.

“In the Situation Room.”
—Colby Itkowitz ([C]), surprised at the gravity of GOP efforts, [10:13]

Why This Won’t Go Away

• Sticking to Trump: Unlike typical scandals, this one divides the Republican base, since many ran on promises to release Epstein files—meaning Trump’s reluctance feels like betrayal.
• Existential for the GOP: “It is an existential question for Republicans going forward.” ([B], [12:40])

What’s Next?

• House Process: The petition must “ripen” for 7 days, then a full House vote is required. Expected to pass to the Senate, where ultimate fate is uncertain.

“The rules of the House require House Speaker Mike Johnson to allow seven days for it to ripen. That is the official term.”
—Matthew Choi ([A]), [12:57]

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2. The End of the Government Shutdown: Political Lessons

[16:09 – 31:59]

Why Did the Shutdown Finally End?

• Breaking the impasse: A group of eight Senate Democrats (mostly not running for reelection or from affected states) broke with their party, voting to reopen the government without extracting the concessions (ACA healthcare subsidies) that triggered the shutdown.
• Political calculation: These senators accepted “taking the fall”—prioritizing reopening over party unity.

“They said, we’ll take the fall for it and, you know, reopen the government.”
—Matthew Choi ([A]), [17:00]

Did Either Party “Win”?

• On tactics: GOP strategy of keeping the House away (via Speaker Mike Johnson) was effective, putting pressure on Senate Democrats.
• On messaging: Democrats believed “the fight was the point”—showing opposition to Trump, even from the minority, but miscalculated the practical effects.

“Just fighting to show that you have fight doesn’t mean you’re gonna win that fight.”
—Dan Marica ([B]), [18:51]

• Healthcare hope: Democrats point out they secured a future vote on ACA subsidies, but ultimate passage remains uncertain.

Affordability as the 2026 Battleground

• Key issue: Both parties recognize affordability (healthcare, energy, groceries) is dominating voters’ concerns.
• Democratic pivot: Recent off-year election wins (VA, NJ, NY) were driven by an “incessant” focus on affordability.
• Republican challenges: Trump and the GOP are scrambling for a resonant affordability platform; Trump’s proposed policies (like 50-year mortgages or tariff-rebate checks) are regarded as unserious.

“The comparisons here to Joe Biden are just incredible… Trump comes into office and focuses on so many other things other than affordability. It is incredible to see him fall into the same trap.”
—Dan Marica ([B]), [27:31]

Trump’s Unusual Absence (and Focus)

• New hands-off approach: Trump displayed a “conspicuous absence” from shutdown negotiations, a stark contrast to his direct involvement in 2018–19. He prioritized foreign policy and social events over domestic crisis management.
• Post-election panic: Only after GOP defeats in the November off-year elections did he call (unsuccessfully) for ending the shutdown—even proposing a filibuster elimination Senate Republicans rejected.
• Focus elsewhere: Trump issued pardons related to the contested 2020 election, indicating his ongoing fixation with that loss rather than with present legislative crises.

“It still is kind of a thorn in his side… even as the government shutdown is happening… he has 2020 on his mind.”
—Dan Marica ([B]), [26:04]

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3. What’s Next for Democrats?

[29:31 – 31:59]

• Leadership debate: Some Democrats are calling for new Senate leadership, frustrated with how Charles Schumer handled defection and negotiation, but clear alternatives remain scarce.
• Message discipline: Expect a relentless Democratic push on affordability and corruption, seeking to keep the GOP—and specifically Trump—on the defensive into 2026.
• Corruption plus prices: The party plans to tie Trump’s wealthy connections and scandals (like Epstein) to his perceived lack of focus on voters’ economic well-being.

“They’re going to try and pressure Republicans on everything from energy costs to health care to grocery costs… coupled with this corruption message.”
—Dan Marica ([B]), [31:59]

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Notable Quotes and Moments

• On Republican base frustration:
  “It’s galling to many Republicans… who partly elected him because they wanted to see this kind of information be exposed by the guy who said he was going to drain the swamp.”
  —Dan Marica ([B]), [12:03]

• Deadpan exchanges & levity:
  “Is that the first mission of Tartuffe in the Post Reports history?”
  —Dan Marica ([B]), [08:28]
  (podcasters joke about using esoteric vocabulary and side bets)

• On Lauren Boebert’s Situation Room meeting:
  “In the Situation Room.” “In the Situation Room.” [10:13]

• On Democratic messaging:
  “Affordability was the issue of last year’s elections. It was the issue of last week’s elections…”
  —Matthew Choi ([A]), [26:53]

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Key Timestamps

• Epstein/Trump background: [02:08 – 03:27]
• What the new emails say: [03:50 – 04:27]
• Discharge petition mechanics & political strategy: [04:41 – 07:52]
• Trump/White House GOP responses: [08:40 – 10:15]
• Why this sticks to Trump: [10:56 – 12:48]
• Next steps for the Epstein files: [12:57 – 13:31]
• Shutdown ends & key takeaways: [16:09 – 21:17]
• Trump’s response to shutdown: [21:56 – 23:38]
• Trump’s focus on pardons and 2020: [24:34 – 26:04]
• Affordability risks for GOP: [26:53 – 29:31]
• Democrats' 2026 strategy: [29:31 – 31:59]

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Takeaway

This episode spotlights unprecedented strains within the Republican Party over the Epstein files—with Trump facing accountability from his own base—and clarifies both parties’ tactical recalibrations in the aftermath of a bruising shutdown. The terrain for 2026 is clear: a pitched battle over affordability, trust, and corruption, with old leadership and new dilemmas for both major parties.

Transcript

[A]

President Trump himself campaigned on releasing a lot of these files. Right. It's not just something from the Republican base. And so a lot of the kind of anger and frustration on the Republican base to get these files out is because they're saying, tartuffe, why did you not do what you said you were gonna do? So this is kind of almost a sense of accountability on the president from his own base.

[B]

Is that the first mission of Tartuffe in the post office?

[C]

I mean, 100%. Did you make a deal with someone where you were like, I'm gonna get this word in somehow?

[A]

Yeah, I'm getting $50 after this now? No, I'm just k.

[C]

From the newsroom of the Washington Post, this is Post Reports Weekly Politics Roundtable. I'm Colby ekowitz. It's Friday, November 14th. Newly released emails from Jeffrey Epstein suggest that President Donald Trump may have known about his conduct with underage girls. We're going to dig into what those emails say and how the White House has responded. And then we'll discuss the end of the longest ever federal government shutdown. We'll talk about what both political parties learned from it and why Trump seemed to take a hands off approach. Back with me at the table is Dan Marika, co anchor of our politics newsletter, the Early Brief. And we are thrilled to be joined by Dan's colleague and co anchor, Matthew Choi. Thanks, guys, for joining me.

[B]

We're happy to be here.

[A]

Thanks for having us.

[B]

Speak for myself, I'm happy to be here. I'm sure Matthew is thrilled.

[A]

Oh, I'm thrilled.

[C]

You're thrilled too. We're all thrilled.

[B]

It's the newsletter kind of combo that you've been waiting for.

[C]

I have been waiting. I feel like we've got, like, there's going to be some, like, deadpan, and then, like, I'm really excited to see what you bring to the table. All right, no pressure, no pressure. So let's get into these Epstein emails. House Democrats dropping a major bomb this week. They released these emails from Jeffrey Epstein. There were emails to Jalan Maxwell, his partner in all of this. They seem to suggest that President Trump knew about Epstein's conduct with underage girls. Dan, it's been a minute since we've talked about Epstein on this podcast. So before we get into, like, what was in these emails and why they matter, quick refresher on the Epstein scandal.

[B]

So Jeffrey Epstein was a powerful New York financier, had a lot of famous friends, including Donald Trump, but also Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew in the United Kingdom. He was charged with Sex trafficking, underage girls, and he died by suicide while he was awaiting his sentencing.

[C]

Right.

[B]

He, his life and his death have become ripe for conspiracy theories and also kind of political fodder. The Republican Party in particular, latched onto the Epstein story in 2016, kind of as a way, I think, to torment and to focus on Bill Clinton's association with Epstein while Hillary Clinton was running for president. But Donald Trump has known Epstein for much of his life. They both had ties to Palm beach in Florida, where Donald Trump has Mar a Lago, his kind of winter estate. You know, Trump has denied knowing about Epstein's illegal behavior with women, but over the years, he has made comments that kind of hint at Epstein's affinity for young girls. And he's made comments in interviews about Epstein's affinity for younger women. And so that is kind of who Jeffrey Epstein is. And that brings us to today, which is why these emails are so revelatory, because they say a lot about not who Epstein is, but actually the relationship between Trump and Epstein.

[C]

Yeah, I'm curious about that, Dan, because like you mentioned that, you know, we've known for a while Trump and Epstein had a relationship. They socialized together, they partied together. Like you referenced. Trump had once said that Epstein likes women on, quote, the younger side.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

So, Matthew, why are these emails? Why are they such a big deal? What is in them? What do they reveal about Trump's relationship with Epstein?

[A]

President Trump has maintained throughout this kind of saga that he cut Epstein's out of his life early in the 2000s. But here in these emails, Epstein says in 2011 that the president spent hours at his house alone with one of the victims, who eventually came forward and even mentioned that Trump was a dog that hasn't barked and never came up in police reports. So, I mean, it just kind of like goes exposes something that maybe hasn't really been discussed very deeply so far and really just kind of keeps us in the conversation when the President has really tried to kind of get this out of the dialogue.

[C]

So it's the Democrats that released these emails. It was three emails at first that they released. They were the ones that seemed to suggest that Trump knew something about Epstein's conduct. Why did the Democrats choose this week to release the emails, Dan?

[B]

So the House has been out for about eight weeks. They have not been at work during the government shutdown. It was a strategic decision by House Speaker Mike Johnson to keep the House away. They passed their government funding bill, and they were trying to put pressure on the Senate to just take up that bill to reopen the government. So, I mean, tactically, this was really kind of the first day that the House was back and open and that this was really possible to put out. But there's also the fact that Adelita Grijalva, who was then a representative elect when these came out, she was elected during a special election, Southern Arizona district. She actually is taking over for her father who passed away earlier this year. She was sworn in earlier this week and became the 218th signature on what is known as a discharge petition, which is just a fancy way of saying a forced vote on the House. Matthew, that's the right way to say it, right?

[A]

Yeah. It pretty much allows the vote to go onto the floor regardless of what the speaker wants because normally the speaker can control what kind of legislation is scheduled on the floor when.

[B]

And that's important for Democrats because they don't have the majority. And so in order to get anything on the floor that is not approved by Mike Johnson, they have to use this discharge petition process. And to do so, they had every Democrat sign it, as well as some Republicans who signed it. Because the Republican Party has made a lot of hay around these Epstein files. Many Republicans who are in the House had run for office saying they wanted to release the Epstein files. And now this discharge petition was a way to basically force them to take a position on something they had talked about before and that passed that discharge petition, received all 218 signatures, and now is going to be required to get a vote on the House floor, which will then put more pressure on on the Republican Party to decide whether they're going to live up to what they had said previously about the Epstein files or go along with Donald Trump, who has really worked strenuously to keep this out of the news and to shake off this story. There's a third topic, the reason that I think this came out this week that is important and it's because I think Democrats have realized that we had talked before about these elections in Virginia and New Jersey and all over the country, these off year elections and how critical affordability was to those elections. I also think that what Democrats are realizing is that there's a corollary to that, which is corruption. And so the more that they can talk about Donald Trump and his wealthy friends and Donald Trump and his association with Jeffrey Epstein, that they can tie in that talking point with the fact that he's more focused on Epstein than he is on prices. The more that Democrats can talk about that, the better politically they think their standing will be in the 26 midterms.

[C]

Yeah. That's fascinating. So House Democrats force this vote, make Republicans decide whether or not the Justice Department has to release all of its files on Jeffrey Epstein. But Matthew, explain to me, because the House Democrats also have these other files. So is that a separate trove of files? Like, I think people are probably confused about what files we're talking about here.

[A]

Yeah. So there are two kind of wells that people are getting the records from. One is from the Epstein estate and. And one is from the Justice Department's investigation into Epstein.

[C]

Got it.

[A]

So the latest emails that came out were from the estate, which were obtained through a subpoena that the House Oversight Committee issued on the estate. What this discharge petition is trying to go for is the Justice Department's investigation into Epstein. And I want to remind everybody that President Trump himself campaigned on releasing a lot of these files. Right. It's not just something from the Republican base. And so a lot of the kind of anger and frustration on the Republican base to get these files out is because they're saying, why did you not do what you said you were gonna do? So this is kind of almost a sense of accountability on the President from his own base.

[B]

Is that the first mission of Tartuffe in the postal parts history?

[C]

100%. Did you make a deal with someone where you were like, I'm gonna get this word in somehow?

[A]

Yeah, I'm getting $50 after this now? No, I'm just kidding.

[C]

So Trump, he has tried to stop these files from being released. Now these emails are out there. They've taken over the news cycle. How has Trump and the White House responded to the release of these emails?

[A]

So Trump himself keeps saying that this is all a massive hoax. Now he's not saying necessarily that the emails themselves are fabricated or anything like that. He just kind of uses hoax as just like a general kind of discreditor for any kind of thing that he doesn't really like. Yeah, the White House and the House Oversight Republicans have really been pressing that Democrats release these specific kind of cherry picked emails to focus specifically on Republicans and, you know, try to make it seem that this is like a Republican scandal when in reality a lot of Democrats also socialize with Jeffrey Epstein in the past. Famously, former President Bill Clinton also was his associate. So that's kind of the way the Republicans are responding.

[C]

And what happened, because there's been a lot of reporting about what happened at the White House when these emails came out, that there were some, like, urgent meetings and conversations that, that, that happened. What do we know about that?

[A]

So Republicans have really been pressuring their own conference members not to vote for this discharge petition. There was a handful of Republicans who did. And it appears that Carolyn Levitt acknowledged.

[C]

That the White House press secretary.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

One of the, one of the Republicans, Lauren Boebert from Colorado, who's normally a very strong MAGA ally, was brought into the White House and discussed in the Situation Room to, you know, try to persuade her not to.

[C]

In the Situation Room.

[A]

In the Situation Room.

[C]

I mean that's reserved for like the biggest or situations.

[A]

Yeah. So ultimately that proved unsuccessful because she did not end up going to the floor of the House to rescind her signature.

[C]

So the pressure campaign from Trump himself wasn't enough to get her to take her signature off. I mean, it's so interesting, Dan, because Trump has been successful in his 10 years on the political stage, just kind of getting Republicans to go along with him, making things go away when he doesn't like it. But this story has not gone away. Like why has this one? Why has the Jeffrey Epstein scandal been the thing that has stuck on Trump and he can't get it to go away?

[B]

I mean, there's a term for Trump. He was Teflon Don. I mean he was the person that you would that politics and politicians have thrown labels at and attacks at that have really just kind of bounced off him like an egg not sticking to a non stick pan. And part of the reason that this has been so sticky is that Trump himself, as Matthew Mention, has used this topic and rallied the Republican base around it to the point that it's so associated with Republicans that then when he gets into office and has a chance to do what he said and not doing that, it's galling to many Republicans. I mean, you've seen throughout Trump's decade long kind of hold on the Republican Party that there are very few instances where Republicans actually break with him. Yeah, this is one area that has really fractured the MAGA base because so many of these people who are either influencers online or elected officials or even just kind of Republican supporters, they have probably said things about releasing the Epstein files and about wanting to see what's in there.

[C]

People that are currently in the Justice Department, leading the Justice Department, maybe a.

[B]

Vice President of the United States who criticized reporters in 2021 for not asking about this, releasing the Epstein files. The history here for a number of these folks is quite lengthy and pretty easy to find. And so I think that's one reason that it has stuck to Trump is that he rallied the base around this, Republicans rallied around this. And then the idea of him not delivering on it, I think is pretty galling to a lot of Republicans who partly elected him because they wanted to see this kind of information be exposed by the guy who said he was going to drain the swamp.

[C]

Right.

[B]

And so it's bigger than just, I think, some files. And Jeffrey Epstein, it is an existential question for Republicans going forward.

[C]

So, Matthew, what happens now? So there's enough signatures on this discharge petition. Where is this scandal gonna go next?

[A]

The rules of the House require House Speaker Mike Johnson to allow seven days for it to ripen. That is the official term.

[C]

Like a banana.

[A]

Like a banana. And then the resolution will have to have a floor vote with the whole House. It's expected to pass. A couple of Republicans who actually voted, who did not sign onto the discharge petition said they would end up voting for it on the floor. Then it would go to the Senate. And there, that's where the big question mark is, because Senate Republicans seems a lot less inclined to support this effort at this time.

[C]

Well, let's pause here after the break. We're going to talk about the end of the government shutdown and why President Trump sat it out. We'll be right back.

[D]

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[C]

Okay, so now I want to turn to the government shutdown, which has finally come to an end.

[B]

That old thing.

[C]

The House voted Wednesday night on a bill that funds the government through January 30. We should note, of course, that means that we'll be talking about this again and potentially shutting down the government again in February. But then President Trump signed it Wednesday night. So we discussed the end of the federal government shutdown in an episode earlier this week. The fact that eight Senate Democrats, one is actually officially an independent, but he caucuses with the Democrats. They voted with Republicans to reopen the government and didn't get any of the concessions that they had wanted. The reason why they shut the government down in the first place over these healthcare subsidy extensions. Matthew, remind us why these eight Democrats broke with their party, sided with Republicans and reopened the government?

[A]

Well, they were feeling that the shutdown just wasn't really working at this point. There was just such a stalemate, such a, you know, impasse over whether or not they would be able to do anything on ACA tax credits with Republicans while the government was shut down. And they just thought, you know, this is a really pressing, time sensitive issue. You know, our federal functions are kind of falling apart right now during the shutdown. This is, you know, the, the cost benefit ratio is just too. So we have to, we have to end this thing now and be kind of the adults in the room. And they understood that that was going to be very politically difficult for Democrats. But all of these, all of these senators were either not running for reelection, not running for Reelection for a while or just really came from states that were really acutely impacted by the shutdown. So they said, we'll take the fall for it and, you know, reopen the government.

[C]

To Matthew's point, most Democrats in the Senate were like, we need to keep this going. We're. We're showing our voters that we are fighting Donald Trump. Like this is working. So after 40 days of this, what is the political takeaway for Democrats and then also for Republicans?

[B]

I think first for Republicans, it does seem like the strategy on the Hill, from the Hill, Republicans did work. I mean, Mike Johnson kept the House away. It meant that they weren't there to vote on a bill that the Senate wanted to send back and put a lot of pressure on Senate Republicans to take up the bill that they had passed. I think the Senate Republicans also just dug in. They didn't give an inch, and they showed that they had a higher pain tolerance than Democrats on this issue. Many. You know, when we went into this government shutdown, you and I talked a lot about how for Democrats, kind of the fight was the point.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

That they wanted to be shown that they could stand up and fight Republicans, even from the minority. And I think what the shutdown showed is that that may work rhetorically, but it doesn't work tactically. Just fighting to show that you have fight doesn't mean you're gonna win that fight.

[C]

Sure.

[B]

You know, there are plenty of people who have gotten into fights on a schoolyard just to show they can fight and then lose the fight.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

That's basically what happened to Democrats here. You know, there are plenty of folks who say that they did win, mostly Democratic senators and one independent who voted to reopen the government because they are gonna get a vote on healthcare on a bill of Democrats choosing.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

And just as a reminder, these are the Obamacare healthcare subsidies that Democrats wanted extended because they've exp. Expired. Millions of people's healthcare premiums are going up. But as we discussed on the show earlier this week, just because they got a vote doesn't mean that these healthcare subsidies are gonna get extended.

[B]

Their argument is that either the subsidies will get extended or at least approved by the Senate and then have a chance in the House, or Republicans will be forced to take a position that is politically unpopular. These subsidies are popular. Healthcare costs going up. It's an unpopular thing to happen to many Americans, and they think that'll be a political winner in the midterms. I mean, as somebody who covers politics and has covered politics for a long time, I Think that's a stretch. You never know what the issue of the midterms is going to be, especially not a year out, a year from now.

[C]

Right.

[B]

It may be health care. They may be right.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

It will likely be something about affordability and health care certainly factors into that. But there are, I mean, a year in politics is multiple lifetimes. And there could be countless things that could happen between now and the midterms that change the topic that is on the minds of many voters. So it is a risk in that way that if the thing that you're thinking you're gonna get is something to use as a cudgel against Republicans in the midterms a year from now, you're taking a big risk. Democrats think that might be worthwhile, especially to reopen the government and get people back to work and get people paid and all those, all the things that have happened during the shutdown. But it is a big risk.

[A]

Yeah. And Democrats do plan on continuing this fight over the, over the healthcare subsidies that might even include another shutdown. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat from New Hampshire, she was one of the lead negotiators who voted to reopen the government and she, after the January deadline, if we do not have these extensions, I'm willing to consider doing another government shutdown. And one thing about this deal that makes its future government shutdown maybe a little bit more palatable is that it included year long funding for the agriculture appropriations. So that includes things like snap, wic, food benefits that were really, really quite sensitive. That made this current shutdown very painful. That won't be a factor if we shut down again in January.

[C]

Oh, that's fascinating. So they won't be able to hold that, that pain that people have been feel.

[B]

It did seem like that was a really difficult pressure point for Democrats. That, and then the FAA issues with flights and flight cancellations and delays. I mean, once the government shutdown got to the point where it was not just impacting federal workers, federal contractors, people who interact with the federal government regularly, and was impacting everyday Americans who were trying to fly, who needed these benefits from the federal government, I think that's when you saw Democrats start to buckle under that pressure, particularly on those food subsidies, food programs and also flights.

[C]

Yeah, Matthew, I've been like, mostly very fascinated by Trump's role in all of this because he seems conspicuously absent over the last seven weeks, at least in terms of dealing with this shutdown. He hasn't really talked about it. We haven't really seen him kind of meeting with Senate Republicans, at least not in a public way. What was his role? What has he been up to over the last 40 days?

[A]

I mean, that's such a great point because if you contrast it with the 2018, 2019 shutdown, he's very, very involved in those negotiations. I mean, Dan wrote a great piece for a newsletter about how the President was jet setting around the world, caring about, you know, like, foreign policy and things like that, which of course are very important issues. But I mean, in the past, the President has canceled overseas trips to deal with government shutdowns. So he was pretty hands off during this one. When he really kind of got concerned was after the elections, the off year elections last week, which were catastrophic for Republicans. Democrats just really, just swept through.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

And he said, this is a sign that, you know, we are losing this shutdown politically. We need to end this thing right now. And he called on the Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster in order to do so. Now, Senate Republicans would rather do literally anything else than eliminate the filibuster. So that was one point where they said, yeah, I don't think we're gonna do that. And so, you know, like, that just goes kind of goes to show that, you know, the President was also, you know, like, not super involved in that tactic. But, but still, you know, he. That really kind of showed that he was very concerned at that point.

[B]

There's this amazing dynamic where in the last, in the first Trump term, there was a government shutdown, which had previously been the longest in history.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

And Trump was at that point on Twitter posting these messages about being like, alone in the White House and kind of like, almost like he was sad. Like he was kind of like by himself in this big building, like, where are all my friends? And to contrast that with his shut, this shutdown now, where he's all over the world, he's down at Mar a Lago throwing a lavish party, and he's like, the difference in who Donald Trump was, the difference between who Donald Trump was in the first shutdown in his first term, and this shutdown, it is dramatic and it says a lot about the differences in these terms as well, that the first term was handled kind of by traditionalists, people who had been in office before, who kind of kept guardrails around Trump and did things like other shutdowns of the past. And this shutdown was completely different. It highlighted the fact that many of those guardrails are gone and that Trump kind of went about his life as if there was no government shutdown.

[C]

Dan It's a little bit of a tangent, but it's related because it's what was on Trump's mind during the shutdown. We also saw him issue a bunch of pardons related to the 2020 presidential election. Not the last one, but the one before that, the one that he says he won and that it was rigged against him. What was that? Why was that something he was focused on while the government was shut down?

[B]

I mean, he issued pardons for a number of people who helped him try and flip the election that he claims he won, that he did not win. You had this whole string of fake electors in different states who were going to be electors to the Electoral College. Had they been able to flip those results. Those people, some of them, have been charged with state crimes. Trump issued broad, sweeping pardons to a lot of those folks, including Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor, who was one of his lawyers and kind of a top communicator on that effort. It's worth noting that none of these people have been charged with federal crimes that fall under the pardons that Donald Trump issued. But it does speak to kind of where his head was at. He's still thinking about that 2020 election that he lost. And it still is kind of a thorn in his side that even as the government shutdown is happening and Republicans who were elected in his image are kind of fighting it out on Capitol Hill to reopen the government, to not give an inch. He's, you know, has 2020 on his mind.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

We also talked a little bit. You mentioned, you know, the message on affordability. It was a huge message for Democrats when they won big in their governor and mayoral elections last week. Trump seems like he hasn't been able to really nail down a message on this because there's this disconnect, right, where the White House is saying the economy's great and real people are saying it doesn't feel so great. And it's incredibly reminiscent of what president, former President Joe Biden found himself in, the trap he found himself in when he wanted people to acknowledge that parts of the economy were doing really, really well. But, again, people weren't feeling it. So how, Matthew, how big of a risk is it for Trump and for Republicans heading into the midterms if they can't put together a cohesive pitch on affordability?

[A]

I mean, it kind of collapses the house of Cards, right? Affordability was the issue of last year's elections. It was the issue of last week's elections, as Mikey Sherrill ran almost exclusively on very heavily on.

[C]

In New Jersey.

[A]

In New Jersey, very heavily on lowering energy costs specifically. You know, I mean, there is all these other things that she could have run on in, you know, that Democrats may have pounced on in the past, like the President's conduct or things like that or decorum, but the Democrats have really kind of pivoted to focusing exclusively almost on affordability. So if the president and Republicans fail to deliver on that going into next year's elections, that's be an enormous liability for them.

[B]

And the comparisons here to Joe Biden are just incredible. I mean, Donald Trump is somebody who latched on to the right issue ahead of the 2024 election. Joe Biden spent so much of his presidency post Covid convincing people that inflation may be an issue, but it's getting better. And he kind of got pinned down on the economy and trying to convince people not to. Don't trust your lying eyes. Like the economy is great. What are you talking about? And that did not work with people. When people are struggling to pay for things, to pay for gas, to put food on the table, and the president is out there saying that, like the economy's getting better, we have this great recovery from COVID It just didn't resonate with people. And it eventually hurt not only Joe Biden, but Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris, who became the nominee for the party, it hurt her as well. And that is a big reason when you talk to Democrats after the election that they believe they lost in 2024. And the fact that Donald Trump comes into office and focuses on so many other things other than affordability. It is incredible to see him fall into the same trap that kind of bewildered Joe Biden. And you're seeing the Trump administration try and throw these ideas out there to try and address this affordability issue. You had a suggestion of like a 50 year mortgage as opposed to the traditional 30 year mortgage. You had this idea of a rebate check from all the money coming in from tariffs. I mean, all, all of this is very skeptical. You should be very skeptical about it. It's difficult to see how this actually happens. You've had Republicans even say that this stuff isn't going to happen. But it does show that the White House, that Trump, that his aides are trying to figure out a way to communicate on affordability at a time when prices are going up on things. And they haven't really landed on a message that works yet. They say that that's going to be the focus of the next year. He's going to be talking a lot about it, but it doesn't really matter if he's talking about it or not, if he's not talking about a way that actually resonates with voters.

[C]

So I want to close on this because we've talked a lot right now about Republicans and what Trump and Republicans do going forward. Democrats seemingly wind at their back after last week's elections. They're feeling good. We're a year out from the midterms. What do Democrats need to do over the next year? Do they need changes in leadership maybe in the Senate, like as some are discussing, like what. What do Democrats do to move forward and continue their momentum?

[A]

I think a change in leadership is definitely something that a lot of Democrats are saying that they need. There was quite a bit of frustration with Leader Schumer over the way that the Senate deal went down, even though it is very important to note that Leader Schumer was against the Senate deal. But a lot of people said that, you know, a stronger leader would not have allowed these kind of defections to happen. Yeah, that is a very popular campaign talking point. Within the Senate itself, though, it seems like there isn't as much of an appetite as Senate Democrats talk amongst themselves because who would replace Schumer right now?

[B]

Who wants that job?

[A]

Exactly. It's a very unglamorous job. Ambitious Democrats in the Senate want to run for president. They don't want to run for leader. The Senate Minority Whip, Dick Durbin. He actually did vote for the Senate deal and he's retiring. So there is a kind of experience vacuum. And it's interesting when you hear House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries talk about it, he didn't directly criticized Schumer. He said that Schumer led his caucus pretty valiantly, actually, even though he did criticize the Democrats who did defect.

[B]

I think that you're going to see there was already a number of Democrats running for the Senate who were running against Chuck Schumer as a way to signal to their voters that they aren't part of the establishment, that they can run kind of as an outsider, even if they've been in public office and been elected before. Running against the party establishment is a pretty good way to do that, I think. More for Democrats, they seem like they have found a message in these off year elections that we have talked about in Virginia, New Jersey and New York and elsewhere. I think you're going to see Democrats talk incessantly over the next year about affordability. I think they're going to try and pressure Republicans on everything from energy costs to health care to grocery costs. You're going to hear a lot about the Trump administration and what they are doing on this issue or maybe what they're not doing on this issue. And I think that's going to be coupled with this corruption message. And that's going to be the pitch that you see Democrats put out to voters in 2026. And really that the election will likely if affordability is the issue, the election will hinge on their success.

[C]

Well, I look forward to chatting with both of you about this over the next 12 months. This was really fun. Dan, Matthew, thank you so much for being on the show.

[A]

Thanks for having us.

[B]

Yeah, thanks for having us.

[C]

That's it for today's episode. Dan Marika and Matthew Choi are co anchors of the Early Brief, our Politics morning newsletter. If you'd like to watch this episode, we also filmed it. You can find it on the Washington Post podcast YouTube channel. We'll add a link to that in our show notes. Today's episode was produced by Emma Talkhoff and Josh Carroll. It was mixed by Shawn Carter. It was edited by Peter Bresnan. Thanks also to our Politics editors. Our team also includes Ted Muldoon, Alana Gordon, Ariel Plotnick, Rennie Starnovski, Sabi Robinson, Laura Benchoff, Rena Flores, Renita Jablonski, Alahia Izadi and Martine Powers. I'm Colby Ekowicz. Have a great weekend. You listen because you know the power of good journalism and the Washington Post is there for you 24 7. When you become a Washington Post subscriber, you get exclusive reporting you can't find anywhere else. You also get sharp advice columns, delicious recipes, TV and music reviews and so much more. Right now, you can get all of that for just $4 every four weeks. That's for an entire year. After that, it's just $12 every four weeks. And you can cancel any time. Add to your knowledge and discover all the Post has to offer. Go to washingtonpost.com subscribe that's washingtonpost.com subscribe.