
President Donald Trump is weighing whether to strike Iran. Our Pentagon reporter Dan Lamothe and investigative reporter Carol Leonnig discuss how this decision could alter Trump’s political future — and the world.
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Elahe Izadi
We're now in the sixth day of the Israel Iran conflict, and there is one question everyone watching this is asking. What will the United States do? President Donald Trump is weighing whether to directly bomb Iran. Here he is talking today to reporters.
Dan Lamoth
I may do it.
Elahe Izadi
I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do. I can tell you this, that Iran's.
Dan Lamoth
Got a lot of trouble and they want to negotiate.
Elahe Izadi
Meanwhile, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran does not fear Trump's threats and, quote, absurd rhetoric. He vowed that Iran will not surrender, as Trump has demanded, and that US Military intervention would bring, quote, irreparable damage. So where does this go from here? And how many people could get caught in the crossfire? From the newsroom of the Washington Post, this is Post Reports. I'm Elahe izadi. It's Wednesday, June 18th. I'm joined today by the Post's military affairs reporter, Dan Lamoth. Hi, Dan, how you doing? We're also joined by Post investigative reporter Carol Lennig. Hi, Carol.
Carol Lennig
Great to be here.
Elahe Izadi
So it was a tense night here in Washington as we were all watching whether the US Would bomb Iran as part of the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. So today I'm going to talk with Dan and Carol about the questions the Trump administration is weighing right now and how a potential US Military intervention could divide President Donald Trump's base and some of his closest allies. So let's start here. President Trump is debating whether to join Israel's attacks against Iran, and this would directly pull Washington into a new Middle east conflict on Post reports. Yesterday, I talked with our colleague Yegany Torbati about the Israel Iran relationship, why Israel attacked Iran, which it said was to stop its development of a nuclear weapon, and how this is all playing out in Iran and how he got here. But today, I want to zero in on what the US could do. So, Dan, first of all, talk me through how the Trump administration's messaging has evolved on this conflict.
Dan Lamoth
I mean, I think in the last handful of days, there's been a long wind up to a likely punch, and perhaps the president changes his mind. But the most likely scenario, I think, at this point is US Involvement at some point, you know, and I think that's really specifically because if you're going to say that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, the concern is a specific facility in an Iranian mountain. And the presumption is that the only one who can sort of take that facility out that deep underground is an American B2 bomber.
Elahe Izadi
Dan, explain a little bit more about this target and why the US Would need to be the one to deploy this weapon.
Dan Lamoth
Specifically, there is a facility known as Fordo. It's literally in the side of a mountain and it is a couple hundred feet underground, reinforced concrete, all of that kind of idea. The only weapon that is believed to exist that could effectively get into that is a specific kind of 30,000 pound munition that the United States military and the United States military alone possesses. It only can be flown at this moment on the B2 bomber US Air Force plane. It's a big, you know, a monstrous, huge stealth bomber. And if, if you're going to go after that facility and the one option out there that probably exists is the B2, that would lead you to the idea that there's at least a likely discussion of U.S. air Force involvement.
Carol Lennig
And, you know, it's chilling to hear you talk about it, Dan, because it practically does really make sense. And, and Trump's talking points today and last night, much in line with what you're describing. But what's fascinating is how rapidly that messaging has changed, right? Because when Israel went to President Trump on Monday, after Netanyahu authorized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after he first authorized the strike, he told Trump and Trump tried to talk him out of it. So to go from quietly, we have nothing to do with it, to the next day, shoulder to shoulder will help you. And we're watching the Ayatollah and we know where he lives. That's really a.
Elahe Izadi
And we should just say that the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the supreme leader of Iran, who is essentially the one who is in charge of the country.
Carol Lennig
That's 0 to 11.
Elahe Izadi
Yeah.
Carol Lennig
To quote Spinal Tap.
Elahe Izadi
Yeah. Well, what happened? What changed here? Do we know?
Dan Lamoth
I mean, I think that the most significant thing here is Israel seems to be quite serious about this in its own right, seems to be moving in this direction with or without us. And the President appears at this point to see value in participating. I think it's also notable that Iran's at a weaker point now on its own, militarily and otherwise, than it has been in years as a result of the Israeli strikes. And really dating all the way back to the big attack by Hamas on Israel in October 2023 that has led to Israeli operations on Hamas, on Hezbollah, you know, the American strikes and Israeli strikes on the Houthis. These are all different militant groups in the region that all get support from Iran. They are an extension of Iran. So the fact that all of those groups have been diminished as much as they have, I think also changes the American calculus a bit here and makes it where they look at it and say the retaliation, the response that we may get to participating in this is likely to be not as large and not as serious as otherwise would have been two, three, four years ago.
Elahe Izadi
I also want to understand a little bit more about how Trump's thinking has evolved over the years, Carol. I'm thinking about the first Trump administration and Trump's posture toward Iran and the actions he took then. He exited the Iran nuclear deal that the Obama administration had previously negotiated. But then Trump really ratcheted things up in his first term term by ordering the assassination of a major Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani, by drone in Iraq. And that led to retaliation by Iran against U.S. forces. And I'm just wondering what do we know about how that history could be informing the decisions that Trump is making today?
Carol Lennig
Such a great question. The strike that then President Trump authorized in 2020 that killed Qasem Soleimani. Trump didn't realize the ramifications, I think, of how hard Iran would then begin to plot to kill him. Two different plots have been uncovered in the LATTER Part of 2024 in which Iranian operatives were caught by the FBI plotting to kill Trump in the United States while he was a candidate for president, trying to stop him from becoming president again, potentially. So Donald Trump takes extremely personally Iran. It's hard for him to separate the fact that he believes this relentless campaign continues.
Elahe Izadi
And then how does the fact that Trump also in his second term has publicly been talking about I want a deal, I want a new nuclear deal with Iran to constrain its nuclear program, prevent it from developing a weapon. And Trump was sending advisors out to negotiate about this. So I'm just trying to square that this about face from let's make a deal to we might be bombing Iran. And Dan, does it seem like Iran US Negotiations are totally off the table if there's direct military intervention by the US Here?
Dan Lamoth
Yeah. And I would argue that reaching a deal now with Israel already launching multiple rounds over multiple days directly at Iran makes the deal really hard to see at this moment. There's maybe an off ramp or two left, but it would really take Iran saying, hey, uncle, and I just don't know that we're going to get there, which leaves us where we are in this moment.
Elahe Izadi
Carol. I think it's also just helpful to step back and think about how big of a deal it would be if the US Got involved in this way of being the ones to drop a bomb on potentially this mountainous area where there's a deep underground nuclear facility. Because I think some people might be thinking, well, the US Is already Israel's biggest supplier of aid. A lot of the weapons that Israel has used over the years, both in defense and otherwise, have been supplied by the United States. How is this different?
Carol Lennig
Well, again, it's the beginning of a very tenuous and stressful 47th presidency. Right. A 47th presidential administration where we're trying to figure out is Trump a negotiator and a deal maker or is he something else? In Iran, however, there's this strong, strong view that Israel has been claiming that Iran is about to have weapons grade nuclear capacity for the last 20 years. They've been claiming that it's one month away for a long, long time. And all of a sudden now, in the middle of the United States trying to broker an arrangement, Israel makes a unilateral move that Trump actually tries to talk them out of.
Elahe Izadi
Dan, what do we know about Iran's capacity, I guess until these strikes began and how close Iran was to developing a nuclear weapon?
Dan Lamoth
About a week ago, the top US General overseeing the Middle East, General Eric Kurilla, oversees Central Command, testified before the House Armed Services Committee. And he raised this issue both in his written testimony and then to some degree in the actual conversation that day as well. And he pointed back to various studies and raised the idea that if they sprinted, they could have a bomb relatively quickly. Now, I think there's some skepticism there. That is something that Israel had said before. But I think that the fact that the four star general is raising this in open session and then it was not lost on me that as White House kind of shifted its rhetoric in the last day or two, they pointed directly back to that testimony. It seems to me that there is at least the Iran hawks within the US Government appear to be winning right now in terms of what to do and how to manage.
Elahe Izadi
And Dan, what do we know about the conversations within the military about this course of action?
Dan Lamoth
Yeah, I mean, I think that there's a couple pieces. One is that if you're going to do it, there are many steps you need to take. First, you're talking to allies, you're moving additional aircraft, you're moving tanker planes. We've seen lots of kind of stuff bouncing around on social media where, you know, the flight plans for various American tanker planes that are very obviously moving in that direction. I think all of that is partly trying to forecast that, you know, the United States is serious about this, but it also makes it pretty obvious that there really is a lot of kind of bracing for this going on. And then I think the second piece is how do you manage the aftermath? And that's the part that I think there's at least some fear that they don't have a full appreciation of, particularly in the White House, that, yes, you can blow up this mountain, probably, but what's that look like after? What does that bring on you after?
Carol Lennig
And, you know, I just can't help but wonder, based on the generals in the Pentagon and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. And I'm thinking of Mark Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, who all together tried to talk Donald Trump out of a lot of things and gave him what you and I might call tough love kind of advice about the realities of engaging in war back in his past administration. So, Dan, like, do you think he's getting tough love advice and counsel from his generals now, given that he removed several that he did not believe to be loyal enough to him and maybe even obedient enough?
Dan Lamoth
Yeah. I mean, it's not lost on me that we have a relatively brand new chairman of the joint chiefs after General C.Q. brown was fired back in February. His replacement was confirmed in April. General Dan Kane is brand new to this job in the last 10 weeks or so. Basically, that's a factor given the unusual path he took to this job where he wasn't a service chief himself. He had not been a member of the Joint Chiefs himself previously. You know, he doesn't have the usual requisite experience you would expect in this job. The defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, you know, he was a major in the Army National Guard. He has military experience, but he isn't. He doesn't have the strategic experience you usually have in this job. So what the advice looks like, you know, I'm not in these rooms. I can't say what they're saying or not saying, but. But I think at least the resumes don't look like they usually do here.
Elahe Izadi
Well, let's take a pause here. And after the break, let's talk about the implications and what could come after a possible US Strike inside of Iran. We'll be right back.
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Elahe Izadi
Dan, you know you've raised a couple times the question of what comes next if the US does drop this bomb inside of Iran. So I want to break it out and talk about this in a few different ways. There's obviously like the political implications, but then there's also just the like threat to US life and also US interests if we're thinking about it just from an American perspective. So Dan, first can you just walk me through what are the possible implications or the potential fallout if the US does take this course of action?
Dan Lamoth
I mean, I think the most immediate one is a multi layered attack on US Forces in the region in multiple locations, multiple countries. There are tens of thousands of American troops, dozens of embassies spread across the region. Places like Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. These are all a major American foothold in the region. And these attacks could come from Iran itself. They could also come from the Houthis. They could also come from various militias in Iraq and Syria. It's not exactly clear how and when and what kind of attacks you would see. They would be worried about drones, they would be worried about missiles, car bombs, all kinds of different ways this thing could manifest itself.
Elahe Izadi
Yeah, Carol, I'm also thinking about what about attacks on people who work in the federal government all over the world and also US Citizens here in US Soil? Like how should we be thinking about national security here?
Carol Lennig
Sure. I mean, keep in mind, I think it's really great the way you phrase that question these two pieces internationally. You could see mass evacuations and orders from the US Government to get all our US Personnel out of certain places that are basically within bomb striking distance. Right. And then the second is US Citizens here in America we already know about, again, as I said, two previous multi hydra headed plots to surveil enemies of Iran and to kill Donald Trump. So if those operations had life in 2024, what's the challenge really to launching those secret undercover operations today or yesterday or ones that are already ongoing? There's one other thing that I can't help but bring up. Even though you haven't asked about it yet, let's go there.
Elahe Izadi
Carol, what is on your mind?
Carol Lennig
Well, Donald Trump campaigned against endless war. Right. We're always going to be a presence and a force to be reckoned with in the Middle East, Israel, such a critical ally, and that's all square. But his campaign was let's get out of these countries, let's not fight other people's wars, let's not battle with US lives. And here's a place where it looks like we're thinking about doing exactly that.
Elahe Izadi
Carol, I'm glad you brought this up because Dan, I'm thinking about the, like how this is splitting even Trump supporters because a big part of his base and people who voted for him did so because of this sort of anti interventionist rhetoric and also approach to the world. And yet there's also the more hawkish element of the Republican Party which has been there for some time. So how are you seeing the split right now?
Dan Lamoth
Yeah, I mean, unless something changes, you know, I think that the fair view is that the, you know, the hawks have won at least this Moment, there was a discussion with President Trump on Air Force One within the last couple days where the testimony of Tulsi Gabbard overseeing national intelligence. Tulsi Gabbard had said to lawmakers in an open hearing that she didn't see the threat as an imminent of Iran having the nuclear bomb. And Trump's reaction was, I don't care what she says. She wasn't just speaking on her own behalf there. She was speaking on behalf of the American intelligence community. If she's presenting the consensus intelligence community viewpoint. And that's his reaction, kind of gives a different lens on how we're in this moment now.
Carol Lennig
And at the same time, amid all of this, you have Bibi Netanyahu stoking this like crazy yesterday in an interview, reminding Donald Trump directly that, remember, Iran tried to kill you twice. Remember, remember. It's interesting how he's putting not just kindling, but like rocket fuel on this.
Elahe Izadi
Well, and then it's just playing out all so publicly is remarkable.
Carol Lennig
Totally.
Elahe Izadi
Just to stick on this idea of how American voters might feel about this. Carol, as you were thinking about, Trump campaigned as I'm going to get us out of these conflicts. I'm not going to get us embroiled. How are you thinking about how American voters might take this if we go down this path?
Carol Lennig
You know, American voters have said over and over again, but more importantly, Donald Trump's Republican voter base have said repeatedly, we don't want to use our tax dollars getting engaged in other foreign conflicts, foreign disagreements. That's not America's job. And they've said it many different ways and consistently. Donald Trump's got to wonder whether or not a huge group of his voters are wondering if they care whether or not Israel and Iran are battling out, whether they care whether or not Iran is getting closer to a nuclear weapon. And Americans really care about these kind of like front burner issues for them. What about my groceries? What about my eggs? What about our gas prices? Now, Donald Trump could have been convinced, actually that securing this region is potentially helpful for the US Economy because we saw a huge spike actually in all sorts of oil prices immediately after this began.
Elahe Izadi
Dan, I'm also wondering for you as someone who covers the military and also just has a sort of pulse on what the thinking is among people in the military, you know, rank and file. Is there anything you're hearing about how popular, unpopular this could be be among people in the military and their families? And I mean, they would be the ones who would be potentially most at risk and vulnerable if there's any fallout from this.
Dan Lamoth
If you have a American attack and an Iranian counterattack that is mostly thwarted and you're left in a situation where everybody kind of walks away with this facility destroyed, a small or zero casualties, and that somehow is manageable, at least for a period of time, I think a lot of times people move forward, they'll drive on. And I guess I say that having covered the aftermath of the killing of General Soleimani and that leading to sort of a spate of days where it was very unclear how Iran would target Americans in the region, we ultimately got a ballistic missile attack on two locations in Iraq. One of those ballistic missile attacks in particular on Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, injured close to about 100Americans, traumatic brain injuries, some of them quite severe. I've talked to people who survived that attack. The fact that we walked away with zero fatalities out of that night, if we had something akin to that now, perhaps you're able to drive on again.
Carol Lennig
Mm.
Elahe Izadi
You know, when we're talking about how do Americans feel and the politics and the ramifications, I think where's Congress? Like, Dan, have you heard from any lawmakers who are trying to introduce legislation to, you know, I'm just thinking about, like the ghosts of the Iraq War, for example. Like, there was a lot of talk about, you know, congressional authorization. And is there any movement on the Hill right now around this?
Dan Lamoth
Yeah. Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia introduced a resolution in the last couple days.
Elahe Izadi
And he's a Democrat.
Dan Lamoth
And he's a Democrat. He raised the issue. There are others kind of in like minded spirit that are raising the similar concerns of war powers and whether there's authorization and whether there should be authorization and all of that. But I think after 20 something years of doing this, with numerous discussions going Back to post 9, 11 and numerous presidents from both parties when they're in the seat, all acting in similar fashion, I think it's falling on deaf ears. And I don't know what it takes for that to turn either.
Elahe Izadi
Carol. I'm thinking about how 10 years ago this week, and it feels like a lifetime ago, but it was the moment that Donald Trump officially entered the political scene. He rode down the escalator, announced his candidacy for presidency. It was a long shot candidacy and he won. And now he's president again. Stepping back, thinking about this moment, how would you place this moment in the kind of trajectory of Trump and his legacy?
Carol Lennig
Donald Trump has defied the odds over and over again. He was elected president despite every single pollster saying Hillary Clinton was going to win. And even some Republicans rooting against Donald Trump's presidency at the time, very prominent ones, he defied the odds. And facing 91 felony counts, he was reelected president. So it's hard not to say that Trump has a certain kind of superpower. But in this moment, the only thing akin to potentially getting engaged in a war in the Middle east and embroiling the United States in it is the coronavirus pandemic. Donald Trump has not faced this kind of crisis except for that. And so when he hits this kind of crisis, it's kind of do or die, not making fun of how many Americans died here, but it's do or die for his political future because the way he handled the pandemic was the end of his chances for reelection. And here a potential new endless war is also the only equivalent test that I have seen.
Elahe Izadi
And in this case, he wouldn't be up for reelection. But really, it's his legacy and then the legacy he leaves for whoever his perceived success. Dan, I'm just wondering if you have any other big picture thoughts before we let you go to a busy news day.
Dan Lamoth
Yeah, I mean, I guess I do think there's at least a possibility that he backs down in some sort of 11th hour fashion. You know, it seems like we're getting closer and closer to the point and they'll return on him greenlighting a strike. But we've had these moments before with him where, you know, it looks like we're going to do one thing and then at the last second the rug gets pulled. I guess nothing would surprise me would maybe be the best way to put it.
Elahe Izadi
Well, Dan and Carol, thank you both so much for taking time to have this conversation. I appreciate it.
Carol Lennig
Glad to be here.
Dan Lamoth
Thank you.
Elahe Izadi
Carol Leonig is an investigative reporter for the Post. Dan Lamoth covers the US Military and the Pentagon. This is a developing story, so to get the Latest, go to washingtonpost.com also check out our episode yesterday on Post reports about how the Israel Iran conflict began. Another big story we're following today. The Supreme Court has ruled that states can ban some gender transition care for minors. This decision was about a law in Tennessee, but it has implications for more than 20 other states that have passed similar laws in recent years. In a 6:3 vote, the conservative justices granted wide discretion to the states. The three liberal justices dissented. This case was brought by a doctor and three transgender teens with their families. We spoke with one of those teens and her family for an episode of Post Reports. So if you want to learn more about her story. We'll put a link to that in our show notes. That's it for Post Reports. Thanks for listening. If you love the show, help other people discover it by leaving a rating on Spotify or a rating and review on Apple Podcasts. Today's show was produced by Laura Benshoff with help from Emma Talkoff and Reni Svenofsky. It was edited by Ariel Plotnick with help from Maggie Penman. Shawn Carter mixed the show. I'm Elahe Izadi. We'll be back tomorrow with more stories from the Washington Post.
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I'm Sally Jenkins and I'm a sports columnist and feature writer for the Washington Post. My job entails pulling the curtain on really big sports events at what is going on in locker rooms? What's going on in the stadium tunnel? Most importantly, what's going on in the minds of the athletes that I cover. I think that we have an instinct that sports are really important in some primal way. We pay a lot of money for them, we build really big stadiums for them. And I think that athletics really gets us in touch with with aspiration and teach something very, very important about accountability, about self determination. And so my job is to really make those links explicit for readers and users. Subscriptions support this work and the people behind it. Find out more@subscribe.washingtonpost.com I'm Sally Jenkins and I'm one of the people behind the Post.
Post Reports: Will the U.S. Bomb Iran?
The Washington Post, June 18, 2025
In the June 18th episode of Post Reports, hosts Marcine Powers and Elahe Izadi delve into the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, with a particular focus on the United States' potential military involvement. As the sixth day of hostilities unfolds, the central question dominating global discourse is: What will the United States do?
The episode opens with a tense atmosphere in Washington, D.C., amid speculations that President Donald Trump is contemplating a direct bombing campaign against Iran. Initial remarks from Trump's press conference are highlighted:
These ambiguous statements underscore the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. administration's next moves.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remains defiant in the face of U.S. threats:
This resolute stance from Iran sets the stage for a potentially volatile escalation.
Elahe Izadi moderates the discussion with Post military affairs reporter Dan Lamoth and investigative reporter Carol Lennig to unpack the Trump administration's evolving rhetoric and strategies.
Dan Lamoth explains the technical aspects of a potential U.S. strike:
This highlights the strategic significance of the Fordo facility and the unique capabilities of the U.S. military.
Carol Lennig provides historical context, referencing previous actions taken by the Trump administration that have strained U.S.-Iran relations:
This history of aggression and retaliation adds layers of complexity to the current situation, illustrating why Trump’s decisions are heavily influenced by past conflicts.
Despite Trump’s recent talks about negotiating a new nuclear deal with Iran, the possibility of military intervention threatens these diplomatic efforts.
Dan Lamoth comments on the near impossibility of negotiations amidst active military conflict:
The conversation shifts to the possible consequences if the U.S. proceeds with bombing Iran:
Carol Lennig raises alarms about the safety of American citizens:
The potential military action risks dividing Trump's base:
Carol highlights the divergence between Trump’s anti-interventionist rhetoric and the hawkish elements within the Republican Party:
Elahe Izadi inquires about Congressional actions regarding military authorization:
However, there is skepticism about the effectiveness of such measures:
Carol Lennig reflects on Trump's unprecedented political resilience and the potential legacy shaped by decisions in this crisis:
She emphasizes the high stakes involved:
Dan Lamoth concludes with the possibility of Trump reversing his decision at the last moment, maintaining the unpredictability of the situation:
The episode wraps up with the hosts encouraging listeners to stay informed through The Washington Post and previewing other current events. The discussion underscores the gravity of the U.S. potentially entering another Middle Eastern conflict, the multifaceted implications for national security, political dynamics, and Donald Trump's enduring influence.
Notable Quotes:
This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the episode, providing listeners and non-listeners alike with an in-depth understanding of the critical discussions surrounding the potential U.S. bombing of Iran, the involved geopolitical dynamics, and the broader implications for American politics and international relations.