Provoked with Darryl Cooper and Scott Horton
EP:11 - Democracy's Limitations in Divided Nations
Date: September 6, 2025

Episode Overview

In this incisive episode, Scott Horton and Darryl Cooper delve into the psychological and political drivers of conflict in modern divided societies. Through the lens of Ukraine's ongoing crisis, Israeli-Palestinian tensions, and the changing global order, the hosts dissect how deeply held national identities, the failures of democracy in divided states, and the stubborn inertia of great powers can spiral into violence. The conversation combines sharp historical analysis, current events, and the duo’s trademark unsparing honesty.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Risk of Extremism in Divided Nations

• Blitzkrieg Blowback & Ukraine's Political Trajectory

  • Horton warns of the rise of Andrey Beletsky or similar far-right figures as potential future Ukrainian leaders.
    • "I'm warning you, there's a real danger that Andrey Beletsky or somebody close to him could become the future leader of Ukraine." (08:09)
  • The hosts trace the evolution of far-right movements, tracing their roots and ideology, with Beletsky’s infamous "white crusade" rhetoric discussed at length.
  • The assassination of political figures, high rates of older men at the front, and the cultivation of a siege mentality are cited as evidence of society radicalizing through war trauma.
  • Cooper: “Ukraine must become a single biological organism...from the weak modern man, the Übermensch.” (Beletsky quote, 12:34)
  • Horton draws a stark contrast with American and French Founders, insisting Ukraine’s “new right” are explicitly built on hatred, akin to early Nazi or hardline Zionist thinking.
    • "They're not on the principles of freedom, they're founded on the principles of hatred of the other." (16:39)

• The Practical Use of Nationalism by Western Policy

  • Western policymakers tolerate Ukrainian right-wing extremists because of their utility in resisting Russia.
    • “We need slogans, we need chants, we need parades with torches to celebrate Hitlerians, if that's what it takes. You know, okay, and, and that is what it takes, as you're saying.” (Anne Applebaum on Ukraine, 28:09)
  • The conversation parallels U.S. historic use of dubious allies—Kurds, South Vietnamese, Afghan Mujahideen—highlighting recurring betrayals.
    • “If you think being America's enemy is bad, you should try being one of their friends.” (49:39)

2. Cycle of Violence and the Intractability of War

• Ukraine's Future: Right-Wing Hegemony and Permanent War

  • Horton and Cooper examine postwar election scenarios, predicting a permanent “rump Ukraine” ruled by irreconcilable nationalists, likened to Israel’s “garrison state” model.
  • They chart how these dynamics make a genuine peace settlement or reconciliation nearly impossible, with Russia caught in a dilemma: accept a hostile nationalist neighbor or escalate further.
    • Horton: “They have to keep going and they're going to have to take the whole country all the way to the mountains.” (33:49)

• On National Trauma and Cycles of Revenge

  • Cooper connects Ukraine's likely postwar revenge narratives to Germany post-WWI, forecasting “stab in the back” myths and future vengeance cycles unless some "face-saving" exit is engineered.
    • “It's impossible that we suffered this much...for nothing. So if it did happen, it was because we were stabbed in the back.” (35:54)

• Missed Diplomatic Opportunities – Istanbul Negotiations

  • The cancellation of the early peace deal in 2022 after Western intervention is described as an “historic crime” and a pivotal moment that doomed Ukraine and Russia to a longer, bloodier war.
    • Horton: "We had a deal. It was set...But then Boris Johnson came to town, blew up the deal, said, you'll never get support from America and Russia again." (41:18)
    • Cooper: “It's one of the crimes of the century, honestly.” (48:11)

3. Israel, Zionism & the American Conservative Shift

• Right-Wing American Backlash Against Israel

  • Horton details a notable shift at the U.S. National Conservatism conference, where pro-Israel and anti-Zionist factions openly clashed.
    • "Israel is now for real finally an issue on the American right in a way that it never has been before.” (52:31)
  • Cooper exposes the sense of “contempt for patrons” that he believes ultimately dooms the Israel lobby's power in U.S. politics as the evangelical and boomer generations phase out.
    • "If Israel could just...show a little bit of gratitude rather than just constantly throwing it in people's faces that we got you.” (53:48)
  • Expectation of aggressive Israeli moves (annexing the West Bank, expulsion of Palestinians), with American right-wing support—but only for a limited time.
    • "The card...is not going to play for very much longer." (57:54)

• Arab Acquiescence and the Morality Crisis

  • Cooper and Horton deplore the passivity of Arab regimes as Israel pursues hardline policies, highlighting the explosive risk if holy sites are threatened.
    • "I can hardly think of...more degraded...leaders...knowing they're coming for the West Bank and they're just...standing by." (60:01)

4. Democracy’s Limits & the “Liberty First” Principle

• Democracy's Shortcomings in Deeply Divided States
  • The conversation turns philosophical, questioning the wisdom of democracy in culturally split nations. They draw analogies with Ukraine and beyond (Indonesia, India).
    • Cooper: “Is democracy the best, the best course of action for a country like that, or is it...something that a country sort of graduates to…?” (75:13)
  • Horton: “You’ve got to believe in liberty first...Democracy has to also mean respect for every kind of minority rights.” (75:33)
  • Discussion of how Western democracy promotion often radicalizes or immiserates countries when not paired with strong liberal (property- and rights-respecting) traditions.

5. Global Shifts: American Decline, Eastern Rise

• Multipolar World & American Hegemony's End
  • Horton notes the growing alliance-like behavior of Russia, China, India, and others in the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” reading it not as an aggressive bloc but a declaration of independence from U.S. superpower diktat.
    • Horton: “They're declaring independence from us and saying that the era of American superpower hegemony is over.” (95:49)
    • Cooper: “They're done…interfacing with this system that the Americans have taken, created and, and, and...even making noises in the direction.” (90:15)
  • The hosts lament the blindness of U.S. political elites—“playing West Wing characters” without understanding realpolitik—contrasted with more pragmatic Russian and Chinese leadership.
    • "I think we're in that second generation now of cops where they're playing this character from the West Wing and they don't even know it." (84:33)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Rise of Extremism in Ukraine

  • “Ukraine must become a single biological organism ... from the weak modern man, the Übermensch.” (12:34, Cooper quoting Beletsky)
  • "Where your founding principles sound a lot like the foundations of the Nazi Reich and the Zionist Reich, then, yeah, that's where you're off, right?” (16:39, Horton)

• On the U.S. Betrayal of Allies

  • "If you think being America's enemy is bad, you should try being one of their friends.” (49:39, Horton quoting Kissinger)

• On Israel’s Relationship with U.S. Conservatism

  • "The card...is not going to play for very much longer." (57:54, Cooper)
  • “We have to protect Israel because they are our forward deployed base in a region full of people that only don't like us because we back up Israel.” (56:13, Cooper)

• On Democracy’s Limitations

  • “Is democracy the best, the best course of action for a country like that, or is it something that a country sort of graduates to once it reaches a certain level of development?” (75:13, Cooper)

• On American Hegemony’s End

  • “They're declaring independence from us and saying that the era of American superpower hegemony is over.” (95:49, Horton)

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | Topic | |-----------|--------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 08:09 | Ukraine Leadership | Danger of Beletsky/far-right leaders emerging in Ukraine | | 12:34 | Ideological Analysis | Beletsky’s vision—race, nationalism, comparison to early Zionists and Nazis | | 28:09 | Western Policy Cynicism | Anne Applebaum and Right-wing nationalism’s practical uses in war | | 33:49 | War Prognosis | Why Russia may have “trapped themselves” into permanent occupation of Ukraine | | 41:18 | Missed Peace Deal | How the Istanbul peace process was sabotaged—Boris Johnson’s intervention | | 49:39 | Betrayal Cycle | “It’s dangerous to be America’s enemy …” (Kissinger) | | 52:31 | U.S. Right on Israel | Anti-Zionism at the National Conservatism conference | | 60:01 | Arab State Passivity | Cooper on the “degraded, whipped” Arab leadership’s failure on Palestine | | 75:13 | Democracy Limits | Comparing divided nations’ suitability for democracy | | 90:15 | Multipolar Alignments | India, Russia, China public fraternization and the end of U.S.-centric global order | | 95:49 | Hegemony’s End | Horton and Cooper on America’s fall from unchallenged superpower | | 99:49 | Elite Psychology | The intoxicating power of U.S. superpower status for the D.C. class |

Tone & Style

• Language: Unfiltered, direct, and historically literate. The hosts’ banter is both conversational and acerbic.
• Approach: Critical of propaganda from all sides, skeptical of power, and deeply concerned with human consequences of geopolitics.
• Memorable Exchanges: The discussion mixes big-picture strategic assessments with deeply human stories—whether about Ukrainian families or D.C. bureaucrats' self-regard.

Conclusion

Episode 11 of Provoked is a barnburner: it explores how homogenous nationalism, Western hypocrisy, and the inertia of great powers foster cycles of violence and missed opportunities for peace. The hosts press the audience to see beyond slogans—whether about democracy, freedom, or security—and to confront the dangers when self-serving myths take the place of sober, liberty-respecting governance. The episode is essential listening for anyone seeking to understand the limits of democracy in deeply divided societies, and how 21st-century geopolitics may be repeating the gravest mistakes of the 20th.