Provoked EP:35 – Another War for Israel (Feb 23, 2026)

Hosts: Darryl Cooper and Scott Horton
Guest: Trita Parsi

Episode Overview

In this episode, Scott Horton and Darryl Cooper are joined by Trita Parsi—co-founder of the Quincy Institute and author of Treacherous Alliance—to analyze the rising tensions between the US and Iran, the likelihood of another US-led war for Israel’s sake, the psychology behind American and Israeli policy, the domestic situation in Iran, and related geopolitical consequences. The conversation offers an in-depth exploration of the repetitive cycles of escalation, sanctions, and regime change rhetoric that have fueled conflict in the region.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is War with Iran Imminent?

• [04:15] Scott expresses relief that war hasn't started yet, but notes increasing pressure on Trump to act militarily against Iran.
• [05:11] Trita Parsi:
  • War is not inevitable; Trump’s unpredictability is a key factor.
  • Recalls 2018 incident: Trump approved then canceled airstrikes against Iran after an American drone was shot down.
  • Quote: "With Trump, you never know. He can change his mind. Things are not necessarily looking particularly good…" [05:11]
• [07:47] Scott points to WSJ reporting that proposes limited bombing to pressure Iran into compliance—a strategy both he and Parsi suspect is a recipe for wider war.

2. The Iran Nuclear Deadlock & Sanctions

• [06:04] Parsi describes the US position: Iran must abandon its nuclear program for mere assurances of no further sanctions or bombing, without any actual sanctions relief.
  • "They're not going to give up that leverage in order to just keep the status quo. The status quo is strangulation. There's no way they can survive the status quo." [06:42]
• [10:16] Cooper: If Iran’s only options are to fight or self-destruct under sanctions, fighting may be rational.

3. The Calculus of Iranian Resistance

• [08:22] Parsi: Iranians view limited strikes as a slippery slope—once their deterrent is gone, they'd be vulnerable to real attack.
• [13:19] Parsi: Iran doesn’t need victory—just survival. Demonstrating they can inflict pain could force Trump to reconsider.
  • "They just need to destroy or get close to destroying Trump’s presidency before they lose." [08:22]
• [14:14] Parsi: Internal repression has left Iran in a fragile, shocked state, not conducive to a return to the old “normal.”

4. Israeli Strategic Aims

• [16:32] Parsi: Israel's interest is perpetual conflict with Iran, hoping US intervention would collapse Iran, produce fragmentation (secessionist regions), and embroil Israel’s rivals (Turkey, etc.).
  • "For the Israelis to manage to essentially eliminate Iran from the geopolitical chessboard ... that would be a perfect situation for the Israelis." [16:32]
• [18:34] Cooper: Argues that Israeli and US warhawks’ “victory condition” is likely just total chaos and civil war.

5. Regional and Domestic Repercussions

• [19:50] Parsi: Warns that destabilizing Iran (90 million population) would dwarf the Iraq and Afghan refugee crises and instability, affecting the whole region—and indirectly, the US.

6. The Iranian Protest Movement: Nuanced Realities

• [22:04] Scott asks whether reported deaths in Iranian protests were state massacres or clashes with armed insurgents.
• [22:04] Parsi:
  • Estimated 7,000+ killed—many protesters, but also police; some armed, trained (often by the US) Kurdish groups escalated violence, especially in Kurdish areas.
  • Large-scale protests were mostly legitimate domestic grievances; only a small subset were militant groups.
  • Quote: "This neat story that this was just ... peaceful and all the violence came from one side is a little bit simplistic." [24:47]

7. Potential Scenarios If War Breaks Out

• [26:28] Parsi:
  • Cleric Sistani would try to keep Iraq out, but if Iran’s Supreme Leader were killed, global Shia pressure could escalate conflict regionally.
  • A post-Supreme Leader Iran could see internal reform, but is unlikely to install any US-supported exile leadership.

8. Will the US Ever Have a ‘Good’ Offer for Iran?

• [34:45] Cooper:
  • "If we're really not offering sanctions relief… then really, what we're telling them is you make these concessions and we won't bomb you, but we're still going to try to destroy your economy… that's a mugging, not a negotiation."
• US policy offers Iran little incentive to compromise, edging the situation toward conflict or regime collapse.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• [00:50] Horton: “Are we going to war for the Likud again?”
• [13:19] Parsi: “The Iranian standpoint, really, they just have to survive a war. By any measure, including our own, I think you’d have to call that an Iranian victory.”
• [34:45] Cooper: “That's a mugging, that's not a negotiation.”
• [52:21] Cooper: On “Death to America” chants: “If you go to the Middle East, you will hear 'death to' many things that are not even things you can kill sometimes... it’s a figure of speech.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:50 | Introduction of Trita Parsi and the books/key background | | 04:15 | Discussion: Trump’s (un)predictability, recent signals about bombing Iran | | 05:11 | Trita Parsi explains why war is not inevitable (Trump's changing positions) | | 06:00 | Details about the Geneva negotiation deadlock—no sanctions relief offered to Iran | | 07:47 | Analysis of WSJ story: “limited” bombing strategy and its inherent escalation risk | | 08:22 | Why Iran sees capitulation as riskier than fighting back | | 13:19 | Iran’s minimal objective: survival, not “victory”; psychological tactics | | 16:32 | Israeli strategy: regional hegemony, chaos as a goal; secessionist pressures | | 18:34 | Middle East “victory” likely means civil war and destruction, not peace | | 19:50 | The impact of Iranian instability on the region and world | | 22:04 | The protest movement: numbers killed, outside-backed militias vs. real protesters | | 26:28 | What happens if the Supreme Leader is killed? Sistani and Shia response | | 27:30 | Succession scenarios, possibility of real internal reform | | 34:45 | The incoherence and brutality of US “offers” to Iran | | 52:21 | “Death to America” slogan explained in Iranian and Middle Eastern context | | 76:21 | The American Right turning against Israel (John Judis article discussed) | | 80:26 | Israeli escalation as self-fulfilling prophecy; psychology of paranoia |

Thematic Highlights

The “Cycle of Escalation”

• Trump’s actions are driven by Israeli pressure and the adoption of Israeli narratives (ballistic missiles as a US issue, not just an Israeli one).
• [17:45] Parsi: US operates within Israeli strategic framing, cornering itself into conflict.

The “Status Quo” is Deadly

• Sanctions are not a steady-state: they’re a form of war administered by other means, strangling Iran’s economy and society.
• Both the US government and Iranian regime face blocks to finding a way out that doesn’t entail major loss of face or power.

Chaos as a Geopolitical Tool

• Israel (and its US advocates) would be satisfied with a weakened, fragmented Iran—even if the cost to regional stability is massive (“Syria times ten,” per Cooper [34:45]).

Religious, Psychological, and Social Underpinnings

• The podcast closes by reflecting on the deep religious narratives structuring not only Israeli but also American policy.
• The decline of evangelical “rapture” support is changing US right-wing attitudes toward Israel ([76:21]).
• Parsi and Cooper quote from John Judis’s analysis that a conservative turn against Israel is underway, as religious narrative support wanes and costs rise.

Closing Thoughts

• The US stands perilously close to another major war in the Middle East, with Israel’s security and ambitions heavily influencing American options and outcomes.
• Iran, under tremendous internal and external pressure, faces existential decisions—fight and risk devastation, or capitulate and risk annihilation later.
• The conversation cautions against reflexive American intervention, underlines the likely catastrophic consequences of regime collapse, and scrutinizes the mechanisms—political, psychological, and practical—through which advocacy groups sustain unpopular wars.

Summary prepared by PodcastSummarizer AI, maintaining the hosts’ sharp, direct style and focusing on the critical dynamics discussed in the episode.