Podcast Summary

EP:9 - Ukraine Chessboard: The Art of Losing Slowly – Special Guest Comic Dave Smith

Podcast: Provoked with Scott Horton and Dave Smith (filling in for Darryl Cooper)
Date: August 23, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, exploring the political motives, slow-motion nature of the war, prospects (or lack thereof) for peace, the role of extremist militias within Ukraine, and the broader implications for US foreign policy and the rightward shift in American discussion of Israel-Gaza. Scott Horton and guest co-host comic Dave Smith bring in-depth analysis with a tone that mixes sobering realism and wry commentary.

Major Discussion Points

1. The Stalled Peace Process and Endless Negotiations ([01:12]–[05:50])

• Scott recounts a recent interview with former CIA officer Larry Johnson who was skeptical about any chance for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine.
• Dave compares the Alaska talks to the failed Trump-era Iran negotiations, suggesting that “hawks” use negotiations to insert “poison pills” (like non-starter security guarantees) that ensure talks break down.
• Security guarantees (especially NATO Article 5) are discussed as unrealistic demands that poison the well for peace:

  “What's a security guarantee if it's not an Article 5 membership in NATO in the first place?” – Scott ([03:07])

• The expansion and misinterpretation of treaties (like the Budapest Memorandum) are highlighted as a factor prolonging war.

2. Russia’s Slow-Play War and Trump’s Blundering Diplomacy ([05:50]–[11:56])

• Scott notes Russia is “winning, but slowly,” with no incentive to stop:

  “It's just such bad timing on his [Trump’s] part when the Russians are winning, but slowly, they're not done winning yet. They have no real reason to quit.” ([04:22])

• The hosts discuss territory control, Russian aims beyond Donbass (including Zaporizhia, Kherson, Odessa, and Transnistria), and skepticism that Trump could offer Russia anything to halt their advance.
• Dave criticizes Trump’s grasp of the conflict:

  “He still fundamentally thinks the problem was that we gave Ukraine to the Russians and doesn’t realize that the problem is actually that we took Ukraine away from the Russians and that... Putin taking Crimea was his snap.” ([10:09])

3. The Logic and Cynicism of US and Western Policy ([12:02]–[16:53])

• Scott and Dave lambast the contradiction of the US asserting it won’t fight for Ukraine, yet promising future security guarantees.

  “...you're gonna give them a security guarantee after they're done losing, and then you promise to fight for them in the next one. What the hell is any of this? Makes no sense at all.” – Scott ([16:19])

• The pair argue that Ukraine’s suffering is largely irrelevant to Western planners; it's about bleeding Russia.

  “They're just extras in our movie. And their lives are worth no more to Washington than the lives of the Afghans in the 1980s. They're pawns.” – Scott ([16:53])

4. The Historical Drivers: NATO Expansion and Political Players ([17:11]–[22:29])

• A deep dive into the 2008 Bucharest summit and why “NATO membership” was dangled in front of Ukraine despite minimal intention to follow through.
• Internal US/EU political dynamics, public opinion campaigns in Ukraine, and the myth of "the will of the Ukrainian people" are dissected.
• The result: a perpetually divided, precarious Ukraine, more radicalized after Russia expropriates its Russophile population.

5. The Nazi Dilemma within Ukraine ([22:31]–[35:11])

• Scott discusses the historical evolution of Ukrainian far-right groups, from their WWII origins to the contemporary Azov movement and Right Sector.
• The “rehabilitation” of Azov figures like Andriy Biletsky in Western media is flagged as dangerous whitewashing:

  “There's just nothing like [the Ukrainian Nazi movement]... these guys are— they're like nationalists, but they're not Nazis. This literally is Nazism.” – Scott & Dave ([30:06])

Memorable Quote

“It's boilerplate Nazi fanaticism... the most dangerous of them—this guy Biletsky—is probably the most dangerous of them. And now, there's a bunch whose names I don’t know.” – Scott ([32:44])

• The episode warns that postwar, Ukraine’s future may be in the hands of these radicalized elements, who are consolidating military and political power.

6. The West’s Willing Use of Extremists—A Pattern ([43:25]–[47:17])

• Western military suppliers prefer dealing with Ukrainian ultra-nationalist groups for their efficiency—even if they are ideologically problematic:

  “It’s not that they hate Jews, it’s just that their trains run on time... No bribes, no kickbacks—great partners.” – Scott & Dave ([43:25])

• Comparison to US support for “moderate rebels” in Syria, noting it always ends up cycling back to hardliners and even jihadists.

7. Insurgents, Mercenaries, and the Normalization of International Conflict ([47:17]–[52:30])

• Globalized mercenary warriors and battle-hardened ideologues, from Chechnya to Ukraine, are the “ripple effect” of American and allied interventions.
• Young men circulate through wars—Ukraine is the new magnet, just as Syria was in the prior decade.
• War is alluring: the existential sense of purpose it gives to participants is noted (referencing Chris Hedges’ "War is a Force that Gives Us Meaning").

Pivot: Reflections on Gaza/Israel and Shifting Sentiment on the American Right ([61:48]–[74:40])

• Scott compares Israel’s Gaza war to “a Waco massacre a day” and contends the sheer brutality has put Israel in a permanent PR crisis.
• The war has caused a sea-change in US conservative media, with figures like Steve Bannon, Candace Owens, and even Megan Kelly now moving away from reflexive pro-Israel support:

  “It’s a new day, and I think it. Well, let’s. Let’s jot this down, right? It’s mid to late August of 2025. Let’s see how long it takes before Megyn Kelly is just... down with us and antiwar.com every day.” – Scott ([74:24])

Memorable Story

“I’ll never forget where I was when it happened to me... There I was, sitting in my airplane seat, and my phone went, ding, ding. ‘Geez, Candace, you better back down or, I don't know if I can protect you.’ The Zionist on my phone said.” – Candace Owens (paraphrased by Scott, [66:47])

• The censorship tactics and intimidation that once sufficed to maintain pro-Israel consensus are failing in the decentralized “de-platformed” media of 2025.
• The hosts predict a strengthening “America First” critique of Israel on the Right.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Ukraine negotiations:
  “The whole point was to not make the deal. The whole point was to put a poison pill in so that the deal... there is no option for a deal.” - Dave ([01:46])
• On media manipulation:
  “They’re just extras in our movie.” – Scott ([16:53])
• On the Ukrainian Nazi legacy:
  “I go on and on about that because of course it's the worst thing that you could say about the Ukrainians is that man, there really are Nazis of influence in their country in a way that we just don't have elsewhere.” – Scott ([23:01])
• On war’s psychological effects:
  “War is probably like... there's probably no better example of something that gives you immediate clarity... It's written a mission, you know, right here.” – Dave ([60:47])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------| | 01:12 | Alaska talks & poison pill diplomacy | | 03:07 | Security guarantees & NATO expansion | | 05:50 | Russian advances, Trump’s “solution” | | 10:09 | Trump’s misconceptions on Crimea & conflict roots| | 16:19 | The logic and cynicism of guarantees | | 22:31 | Ukrainian Nazi/far-right history, Azov | | 30:06 | Comparing nationalist movements to Naziism | | 43:25 | Military-industrial partners & extremists | | 47:17 | The “mercenary effect” of endless wars | | 61:48 | Israel-Gaza: war, PR crisis, right-wing shift | | 66:47 | Candace Owens anecdote—breaking the taboo | | 74:24 | Forecasting a sea change in right-wing discourse |

Conclusion

This episode offers a somber, highly informed exploration of the Ukraine war’s glacial grind, the hopelessness of peace under current Western policy, and the likely outcomes—a fractured, unstable Ukraine menaced by radical elements. Parallels with US debacles elsewhere and the new skepticism on the American right about Israel fill out a bleak vision of contemporary geopolitics. The hosts’ tone is darkly humorous, unvarnished, and unflinching, consistent with the show’s ethos of “exploring the psychology of conflict and how ordinary people become participants in cycles of violence.”