Provoked EP9: “Ukraine Chessboard: The Art of Losing Slowly”

Host: Scott Horton (w/ guest host Dave Smith)
Special Guest: Comic Dave Smith
Date: August 25, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of "Provoked" dives deep into the enduring conflict in Ukraine, unpacking the complex motives of the West, the evolving role of extremist militias, and the psychology behind sustaining and escalating wars. Scott Horton, with comic and commentator Dave Smith substituting for Darryl Cooper, offers sharp analysis and personal anecdotes, centered on how the Ukrainian war is used by great powers as a “chessboard”—with Ukraine paying the highest price. Side topics include critiques of US and NATO foreign policy, an exploration of far-right nationalist influence in Ukraine, and broader reflections on conflict, masculinity, and shifting public opinion on Israel and war.

Both hosts maintain a candid, critical tone, mixing policy expertise with sardonic humor and skepticism of mainstream narratives.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Failed Negotiations and the Illusion of Peacemaking

• The hosts discuss the recent failed peace talks in Alaska, comparing them to past negotiations with Iran.
  • Dave observes: “Part of how the war hawks operate is through the peacemaking also... it was obvious... the whole point was to not make the deal... to put a poison pill in so there’s no option for a deal.” ([02:07])
• Security guarantees keep surfacing as a non-starter, deliberately inserted to ensure talks go nowhere.
• Scott points out how demands for “security guarantees”—NATO’s Article 5 by another name—are intentionally unacceptable to Russia:
  “What’s a security guarantee if it’s not Article 5 membership in NATO?” ([03:07])

2. US Strategy: The Slow Bleed and ‘Winning by Losing’

• The hosts argue the US/Western policy is to exhaust Russia via a protracted war, not to achieve Ukrainian victory.
  • Dave: “It seems to me that...a lot of their goal is not to end the war, it’s to keep the goddamn thing going, as has been the goal for a while... they think it keeps bleeding Russia dry.” ([15:36])
• Security guarantees for Ukraine are a trap, turning any remaining territory not seized by Russia into de facto NATO territory, precisely what Moscow invaded to prevent.

3. Trump and the Limits of Outsider Foreign Policy

• The hosts dissect Donald Trump’s confused statements about the root causes of the Ukraine conflict and offer little confidence in his negotiation strategy.
  • Dave: “He just has no idea what he’s talking about, man... it’s like a Sean Hannity, Rudy Giuliani minus 20 IQ points way of conceiving of the whole thing...” ([10:09])
• Trump is depicted as business-minded but lacking historical or strategic understanding:
  “When you don’t even get that and you’re talking about solving this war... what hope do you have to being up to this challenge?” ([11:09])
• The West may soon pivot to a “we tried, but it’s time to move on” posture, especially if Arctic/China interests beckon more than Ukraine.

4. Russian Advances, Territorial Realities, “Post-Negotiation Ukraine”

• Scott lays out the slow Russian advance: “...the Ukrainians will just drop their guns, walk off the territory... declare their neutrality forever and kick all the Nazis out... otherwise we’re going to keep going.” ([04:22])
• The discussion outlines regions under control (Donetsk, Zaporozha, Kherson) and speculates on future Russian aims towards Kharkiv and Odessa.
• A bleak post-war Ukraine is painted: a rump state run by militant nationalists, “no balance to it at all” between pro-West and pro-Russian sentiment. ([22:31])

5. Extremism and the Neo-Nazi Issue in Ukraine

• Scott highlights in detail the Nazi “Azov Battalion”/Movement and its ties to Ukraine’s 2014 political transformation:
  • “You have this massive neo-Nazi movement unparalleled anywhere in Europe.” ([29:44])
  • Azov and similar groups, once fringe, are now “the most powerful fighting force” shaping Ukraine’s future.
• Scott predicts the rise of figures like Andriy Biletsky (Azov leader), citing their political ambitions and growing legitimacy—even referencing “rehabilitation campaigns” in Western media.
  • “It’s almost certain this guy’s going to be the future leader of this country. They’ll probably call him El Presidente instead of Fuhrer...” ([34:37])
• The West downplays these connections or wishes them away, but “old hatreds” don’t disappear and are potent in war’s aftermath.

6. Great Power Chess, Local Agency, and Contradictions

• The hosts highlight the hypocrisy of Western powers alternately denying and manufacturing Ukrainian agency.
  • “They talk about the will of the Ukrainian people, but a few years before, when our State Department is... finding out that... they don’t want to be a part of NATO, they go, okay, well, then we got to pump money in there to change what the will of the Ukrainian people is.” ([20:04])
• The original neutrality of Ukraine—balanced between East and West—was shattered by war, ethnic cleansing, and the secession of Russian-speaking regions.

7. The Role of Mercenaries, Jihadists, and the “Warrior Economy”

• The hosts trace combatants moving from fight to fight—jihadists to Ukraine, foreign mercenaries returning and seeking new conflicts.
• Veterans and radicals alike are “looking for the next battle,” another ripple of war.
  • “You’re a 18 to 25 year old guy who spent a few years doing that. That is your skill now...” ([52:06])

8. Cynicism Towards America’s ‘Controlled Chaos’ Abroad

• US intelligence’s hubris is called out—arming jihadists, expecting to control them, but invariably destabilizing regions and inviting blowback (ISIS, Syria, etc.):
  • “You could think ISIS is your little pet project, but they're not. They're fucking ISIS...” ([54:11])
• The same logic is applied to Ukraine: supporting “moderates” but empowering extremists.
• Veteran radicalization and the global mercenary market are seen as direct costs of endless foreign meddling.

9. The Psychology of War and Masculinity

• War is not only policy but appeals to deeper psychological needs:
  • “War is probably... no better example of something that gives you immediate clarity. Here's your purpose—in fact, it’s written, a mission... we’re kind of made to respond to that.” ([61:30])
• Refers to Chris Hedges, “War is a Force that Gives Us Meaning,” noting the euphoria, camaraderie, and trauma of conflict.

10. Shifting US/Western Attitudes on Israel

• Discussion of Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, the unprecedented scale of destruction, and the “hasbara catastrophe” undermining US public support and fracturing the American right.
  • “More and more, you have important people of influence on the right washing their hands of this thing...” ([63:20])
  • “It’s as if we lost a war that Israel won, and now we’re living under their rule... but we didn’t. But we're the superpower. They're the ones who need us. It's too crazy.” ([74:14])
• A new openness arises among mainstream and right-leaning American voices to criticize Israel, as old tactics of shaming “traitors” lose effectiveness.

Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments

• On Warhawks and Negotiations:
  “Part of how the war hawks operate is through the peacemaking also... The whole point was to not make the deal.” – Dave Smith ([02:07])

• On Security Guarantees:
  “What’s a security guarantee if it’s not Article 5 membership in NATO in the first place?” – Scott Horton ([03:07])

• On Trump’s Understanding of Ukraine:
  “It’s like a Sean Hannity, Rudy Giuliani minus 20 IQ points way…” – Dave Smith ([10:09])

• On US Strategy:
  “A lot of their goal is not to end the war, it’s to keep the goddamn thing going…” – Dave Smith ([15:36])

• On US Attitude Toward Ukraine:
  “They’re just extras in our movie. Their lives are worth no more than the lives of the Afghans in the 1980s.” – Scott Horton ([16:53])

• On Neo-Nazis in Ukraine:
  “You have this massive neo-Nazi movement unparalleled anywhere in Europe.” – Scott Horton ([29:44])

• On Israel-Lobby’s Waning Control:
  “Once you look at it, you can’t unsee it... what the fuck is the relationship?” – Dave Smith ([72:01])

Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:46–04:22]: Alaska talks, the “poison pill” of security guarantees, Article 5 confusion, Western strategy.
• [10:06–13:00]: Trump’s statements, basic misunderstandings of Ukraine history, the real causes of war.
• [14:30–17:00]: The logic of waging a "forever war," policy contradictions, Ukraine as expendable.
• [22:00–36:00]: Nazis then and now—In-depth primer on Azov, Beletsky, and history of right wing factions in Ukraine.
• [39:23–41:26]: Post-war Ukraine's bleak outlook: ethnic cleansing, nationalism, future balance of power.
• [43:25–47:16]: Azov as US/Western partners, feedback from weapons manufacturers, the “best fighters” problem.
• [52:00–54:11]: Mercenary phenomenon, jihadi “careerists,” ripple effects of modern wars.
• [60:47–61:30]: Masculinity, excitement, and the psychology of conflict.
• [62:30–74:40]: Israel/Gaza war impact on US politics, shift on the right, waning power of the Israel lobby.

Tone & Style

The conversation is blunt, sardonic, and fiercely critical of US/NATO foreign policy establishment, suspicious of mainstream narratives, and unflinching in naming uncomfortable realities (neo-Nazism, false “will of the Ukrainian people,” the cynicism of Washington). The dialogue alternates between policy analysis, historical context, and darkly comic asides amid otherwise grim subject matter.

For Listeners New to the Episode

• If you want a sobering, forensic rundown of why the Ukraine war drags on—and who really benefits—this episode gives you a crash course in the big picture and the often-ignored details.
• You’ll gain an understanding of how foreign policy “poison pills” work, why peace is so elusive, and the longstanding issues of extremist militia power in Ukraine.
• Scott and Dave challenge the tribal narratives, giving listeners a toolkit to think critically about European war, Western strategy, and shifting global alliances.

Skip the ads and small talk—if you want to understand why the Ukraine war won't end, who stands to gain, and why the world keeps repeating violent cycles, this is an essential listen.