Is Manifesting Legit? Plus, Our First Proxy Processing Session

Summary

Proxy with Yowei Shaw – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Is Manifesting Legit? Plus, Our First Proxy Processing Session

Date: January 13, 2026
Featured: Feed Drop from Science Vs, “Manifesting”

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Episode Overview

This episode of Proxy with Yowei Shaw explores the popular concept of manifesting—the belief that you can create your desired future simply by thinking positively and acting as if your wishes have already come true. Yowei starts with podcast updates and then presents a feed drop of Science Vs’ deep dive into the scientific evidence for and against manifesting.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Announcements and Show Updates ([00:00-04:55])

• Yowei Shaw welcomes listeners to 2026, briefly acknowledges world events, and introduces Proxy’s format as “emotional investigative journalism.”
• Proxy’s First Processing Session:
  • First ever group Zoom lunch for Patreon members set for January 23rd, 12:30pm ET—a chance to process anxieties, review the past year, look ahead, and answer listener questions.
  • Session will be recorded and may be released as a bonus episode for those who can’t attend.
• Season Update: New season coming in a few months.
• Feed Drops: Proxy will share favorite episodes from other podcasts biweekly to help listeners discover great new narrative podcasts—today’s feature is “Science Vs” on manifesting.

Quote:
“I've talked about this before—the utility of self-delusion, the emotional gymnastics of starting a new project so you don't give up. This is why I started doing manifestations.”
— Yowei Shaw [03:52]

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2. Science Vs: The Science Behind Manifesting

Introduction to Manifesting ([04:55-07:44])

• Host Wendy Zuckerman sets the premise: Can thinking about your future actually help it happen?
• Manifesting has gone mainstream—one in three surveyed believe in it.
• People claim to have manifested everything from jobs to appliances to life partners.

Quote:
“It works. What I’m about to tell you is going to change your life. You focus on what you want and then act as if you already have it.”
— Manifesting Influencer via clip [05:27]

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Anecdotes and Attempts ([07:45-09:49])

• Senior Producer Rose Rimler and Wendy Zuckerman choose to test manifesting personally:
  • Rose aims to manifest a successful open water swim race.
  • Wendy wishes for rain-free bike rides.
• Wendy recalls childhood belief in “cloud-dissipating” powers, recognizing the emotional appeal of magical thinking.

Quote:
“You know, sometimes it worked. So you kind of believe this. It sounds like.”
— Rose Rimler [09:26]

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The “Best Possible Self” Intervention ([09:49-14:10])

• Dr. Laura King, University of Missouri:
  • Ran a study asking groups to journal for four days:
    • Control: Write about daily plans.
    • Trauma: Write about a difficult event.
    • Manifesting: Write about “best possible future self”—imagine achieving all life goals.
  • Those envisioning their best future reported boosted mood lasting at least three weeks.
• This “best self” exercise is effective in increasing optimism, well-being, and mood, but there is no data on whether it helps achieve those goals.

Quote:
“People walked out of that lab feeling fantastic, right? Like, ‘Oh, Dr. King, I love your research. I love this study.’”
— Dr. Laura King [11:34]

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Does Fantasizing Make Goals Come True? ([14:10-22:14])

• No evidence that manifesting causes achievements.
• Science Vs reviews key research:
  • Gabriela Oettingen, NYU studied job-hunters:
    • Those who fantasized most about successful careers had fewer job offers and lower salaries two years later ([18:20-18:59]).
    • “The more positively that they fantasized, the less successful they were.” — Wendy Zuckerman [18:34]
  • Those who manifested success spent less time on actual job search/studying.
  • Believers in manifesting were more likely to make risky financial choices and even declare bankruptcy ([19:09]).

Quote:
“Maybe people don’t put so much effort in their realization of the positive fantasies...Our mind is very strong. So they feel in the positive future. And if you already feel accomplished, what do you do? You relax.”
— Gabriela Oettingen [20:44, 20:58]

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Why Does Fantasizing Sometimes Backfire? ([20:10-22:14])

• Fantasizing makes people feel as if they’ve achieved their goal, leading to relaxation, lower physiological arousal (measured via blood pressure), and less motivation.
• Distinction: General optimism is beneficial, but intense fantasizing without action is not.

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Science-Backed Goal Strategies: How to “Manifest,” Actually ([22:28-25:30])

• Effective strategies:
  • Visualize obstacles: Don’t just imagine success, but also identify & plan for challenges.
  • If-Then Plans: (“If I forget my pill, then I’ll use a condom next time.”)
    • Research: Groups employing “if-then” statements saw significant improvements in goal achievement (e.g., fewer unplanned pregnancies).
  • These methods have "small to medium effect sizes," which is good for psychology.

Quote:
“It’s good advice if you want to just feel good... But if you really want to go and get your fantasies in reality, then it’s bad advice.”
— Gabriela Oettingen [19:53, 20:07]

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Results of Manifesting Experiments ([25:39-27:07])

• Wendy’s weather experiment “worked”—she avoided rain, but attributes it to increased weather awareness and confirmation bias.
• Rose’s swim race: The swim and celebration went as she visualized, but she placed 71st, not 5th.

Quote:
“You just became hyper aware of the weather...Classic confirmation bias, for sure.”
— Rose Rimler [26:43, 27:07]

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The Human Tendency to Connect Coincidence and Manifestation ([27:22-30:14])

• Dr. King shares a personal story: As a singing student, she thought she “caused” an earthquake by hitting a high note—which happened to coincide with a real earthquake. Later, she recognized the universal impulse to connect our actions to outcomes (“main character syndrome”).

Quote:
“All of us caused that earthquake because that’s how human cognitive processes are… Something big happens and we’re like, whoa, what did I do?”
— Dr. Laura King [29:35]

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Closing Thoughts & Practical Takeaways ([31:08–31:41])

• Rose enjoyed her race, even though she didn't "manifest" fifth place.
• “Best possible self” exercises can lift mood, but don't substitute for actual planning and effort.
• Scientific goal pursuit works: plan for obstacles and make concrete “if-then” strategies.

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Notable Quotes and Moments (with Timestamps)

• “I've talked about this before—the utility of self-delusion...This is why I started doing manifestations.” — Yowei Shaw [03:52]
• “Think for a moment about their life in the future. Their best possible life in the future...happily ever after...” — Dr. Laura King [11:16]
• “The more positively that they fantasized, the less successful they were.” — Wendy Zuckerman [18:34]
• “If you already feel accomplished, what do you do? You relax.” — Gabriela Oettingen [20:58]
• “Visualize obstacles. Scientists have found that works better than just focusing on the goal.” — Rose Rimler [23:16]
• “Confirmation bias, for sure.” — Rose Rimler [27:07]
• “All of us caused that earthquake because that’s how human cognitive processes are… Something big happens and we’re like, whoa, what did I do?” — Dr. Laura King [29:35]

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Key Takeaways

• Manifesting in the “pure” sense (just thinking positive) makes people feel good, but the evidence says it does not make things happen.
• Fantasizing without action can reduce real-world effort and even harm outcomes.
• Science supports more active strategies:
  • Visualize both goals and obstacles.
  • Make concrete “if-then” plans for overcoming challenges.
• Personal growth comes not from magical thinking, but purposeful planning and effort.

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Further Resources

• Proxy Podcast
• [Science Vs Episode Citations (32 total)](see show notes or transcript link)

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This summary captures the essential content, insights, and memorable moments of the “Is Manifesting Legit?” episode, presenting both the emotional and scientific perspectives on manifesting—and what actually works when striving for your goals.

Transcript

[A]

Hey, everybody, It's Yowei. Happy 2026. It feels weird to say happy with everything going on in the world right now, but you know what I mean. For anyone who's new here, Proxy is a show about niche emotional questions answered by proxy. We'll be back in a few months with a brand new season of cases, but for now, two important announcements. First announcement, which I am very excited about. For all paying Patreon members, we are having our first ever group zoom lunch. Hang on. Friday, January 23rd at 12:30pm Eastern Time. That's Friday, January 23rd at 12.30pm Eastern Time. We're calling this a proxy processing session. Don't worry, no one's giving therapy. It's a chance to meet the proxy team and for us to process all our anxieties, fears, hopes, dreams. With you, we'll light a candle. We'll look back at last year and look ahead to the next year. Talk about our pain points, goals, show some numbers, take listener questions. The idea is, as patrons who are paying for this show to exist, we want you to be in the loop about what's going on and get your input. You know, this is an experiment. We'll see how it goes. I think it's gonna be fun again. It's gonna be on Friday, January 23rd at 12:30pm Eastern Time. Look out for an email with the zoom link. Bring your lunch. Come hang. For anyone who can't make it, we will record and most likely release it as a bonus episode. Okay, second announcement. As I said, we are coming back with new cases in a few months. Until then, we are trying this thing where every other Tuesday we will share an episode of another show we think you will like. Did you just gag a little? Okay, so the podcast data people tell me that everyone hates feed drops. Everybody. But hear me out. Right now, there's basically no good way for listeners to discover new narrative podcasts beyond word of mouth. So we want to help you find new shows to add to your rotation. And we want to help other shows find their audience. And we want other shows to do the same for us. It's just like good podcast karma. So today we are featuring our friends at Science versus Science. Versus is a podcast that pits fads against science. They do the hard work of sifting through scientific literature and talking to experts to find out what's fact and what's not on everything from gun control to detox diets to 5g to ADHD and fluoride. A typical show will have dozens of citations. It's serious Science journalism while also being fun to listen to. And in today's episode, they take on manifestations. I'm somebody who's always rolled her eyes at manifestations. It seemed too woo woo, too soft, too stupid. But then I started an indie podcast and I needed to dream. I needed to believe that against all odds, this little podcast with no funding would be a goddamn hit. I've talked about this before. The utility of self delusion, the emotional gymnastics of starting a new project so you don't give up. This is why I started doing Manifestations. Why every morning now when I remember, I open up photo booth on my laptop and stare into my eyes and say out loud a series of incredibly cringe statements that I'm not going to repeat here. You're welcome. Well, today's episode does something that I didn't take the time to do, which is actually vet the science of manifestations. Can you actually manifest what you want using the power of your thoughts, or is it all just bullshit? By the way, if you want my whole emotional gymnastics routine, you can sign up for our newsletter by becoming a free member of our patreon@patreon patreon.com ProxyPodcast okay. Hope you enjoyed today's episode. You can subscribe to Science versus Wherever you get your podcasts.

[B]

Hi, I'm Wendy Zuckerman, and you're listening to Science Verses. Today on the show, we are pitting facts against finessing your future. We are looking into manifesting. Can you really use the power of your mind to create the future that you want? Cause according to folks online, the answer is yes. It's real, man. Manifesting is real.

[C]

This.

[A]

It works.

[B]

What I'm about to tell you is going to change your life. And here's what you need to do to change your life. You focus on what you want and then act as if you already have it.

[D]

While you're writing this or typing this.

[A]

I want you to genuinely feel the emotions as if that thing has already happened to you. So what would it feel like if you received what it is that you desired? How happy would you feel?

[D]

What would that moment look like?

[B]

We're method acting. We're cosplaying our future self. And before you know it, whatever you wished for will appear. And this idea that just by thinking about what you want, you can get it, it's become almost mainstream. One survey of 300 people found that about a third of them believed manifestation could be real. And people say they've manifested all sorts of things. I manifested my crush. I also manifested Some speaking opportunities, some partnerships.

[D]

This is how I lost weight. A size 16 to a size 4. Literally. I manifested my green card, a nespresso machine.

[C]

I actually manifested a full man.

[B]

And maybe it sounds strange that you could think your way to an espresso machine or a green card or a full man, but scientists have actually been studying the best way to achieve your goals for years. And that's what we're telling you about today. So get ready for your dreams to come true. Because when it comes to manifesting, there's a lot of what I'm about to tell you is going to change your life. But then there's science. Science versus manifesting is coming up just after the break. As long as you believe it to be true. Welcome back. Today we are manifesting our futures. We're making dreams come true. And look, already one of your dreams is gonna come true.

[D]

Cause senior producer Rose Rivlin's in the room. It sounds like you've manifested some coffee not too long ago.

[B]

Hi Helen.

[D]

Hi Wendy. So a few weeks ago, just so the audience knows, Leach decided we were going to manifest something. Try. Try to do this.

[B]

Yes, yes, yes, yes. And you were gonna try to manifest doing well in a swimming race.

[D]

Yeah. So I am going. I signed up to swim an open water race and swimming a mile at the beach. And I've never done that before. Uh, so that's what I decided to manifest like just like a good race, safe race, finishing the race and not coming in last because there's also ego involved.

[B]

Have you done this yet? Have you done the race yet?

[D]

It's in a few days.

[B]

Okay. So as we were chatting, we thought your manifestation goal, you know, it's kind of in your control, but we thought maybe right up the ante a little for what I'm trying to manifest.

[D]

Uh huh.

[B]

And so I. Here's what I'm doing. I'm trying to manifest. Every time I need to ride my bike, it will not rain.

[D]

I feel like that's a good one. Cause it's very like, universe, do me a solid.

[B]

Yeah, that's right. And what I didn't tell you at the time, Rose, is that as a.

[E]

Kid.

[B]

I believed, convinced myself that I could indeed make clouds disappear.

[D]

Oh, so you were drawing on an ancient power.

[B]

So when we would go on family trips, I have very distinct memories of mom saying, you know, we're gonna go on a hike today, Wendy, so no clouds please. And me being like, I've got it. And I would stare at the clouds and think dissipate dissipate.

[D]

You know, sometimes it work. So you kind of believe this. It sounds like.

[B]

Away from rain clouds. I do get part of this. You know, if you focus on what you want subconsciously, you'll make steps to achieve it. Or consciously, I don't know. Is there something to this?

[D]

Well, let's dive in. So believe it or not, there is a scientist who has studied something that's an awful lot like a manifestation meditation. The kind of thing you might hear from these influencers. Her name is Laura King. She is a professor of psychology at the University of Missouri in Columbia. When I got on the horn with her, I chatted with her a bit about all the tiktoks that I've been watching lately. And, you know, interesting though, the comments section is full of people saying that it worked. They manifested their ex boyfriend texting them, wanting them back. How do we explain that?

[C]

Because life is super fun. I mean, I'm a fan of magic. When it happens, I think it feels super meaningful to people, but it's not. It's magic with a little M. Not a big. Not a big one.

[D]

So I got in touch with Laura because of this study she did back in the early 2000s. She had about 80 college students come into the lab and do 20 minutes of journaling. And they did this for four days in a row, okay? And they were given different topics to write about. Like, one group was told to write about their plans for the day. That was like the control group, just this neutral, kind of boring topic. Another group was told to write about a traumatic event that they'd gone through. And there was a third group, and this is where the manifestation part comes in. They were told to write about their best possible self, which went like this.

[C]

Think for a moment about their life in the future. Their best possible life in the future. Imagine that you have succeeded at attaining all of your life goals and think of this as the kind of happily ever after for your life.

[D]

And the people given this prompt loved it.

[C]

People walked out of that lab feeling fantastic, right? Like, oh, Dr. King, I love your research. I love this study. Anytime.

[D]

Just by imagining their best possible self. This had a real effect on people's moods, something that Laura could actually measure.

[B]

Oh, that's cool.

[D]

But what's really intriguing and what intrigued Laura and other scientists who ended up doing their own versions of this study later on, is that the effects seem to actually last a while.

[B]

Wait, just feeling good. That lasted longer. How much longer?

[D]

Well, Laura checked in on them three weeks later and found that they were Better off than the people who had done the other prompts three weeks later.

[B]

Yeah, three weeks later.

[D]

And other studies since then have had people do this best possible self exercise and found similar things. In fact, a few years ago, a review paper called this exercise, quote, a viable intervention for increasing optimism positive affects health and well being.

[B]

Wow. So why does it work?

[D]

We don't really know. Laura doesn't know. But her best guess is that it has to do with putting sort of smaller everyday things into context, like sort of adding some perspective about why we do the little things that we do every day. Sort of like what is the ultimate purpose of all this stuff, which is.

[C]

Something that we often forget. Right. In the everyday kind of mundane hassles and the stuff that we're trying to accomplish. Right. At the end of the day, you checked off all your boxes, you feel good. But when you've placed that to do list in a larger, grander context, it also gives you meaning.

[D]

So, Wendy, the bottom line is that thinking about a bright future for yourself feels good.

[B]

Yes? Yes. But then the question becomes, does it end up being true? Because manifesting, the mythology of manifesting it.

[D]

Goes a step further.

[B]

It's not just, you know, what's a really nice thing to do? Just picture your goals and dreams. You'll feel great. They say those dreams will happen.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

So will they happen?

[D]

So I asked, I asked Laura about that. So do people, after they do the best possible selves intervention, actually make their best possible self come true?

[C]

I have no idea. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.

[B]

Lara, why don't you know?

[D]

They didn't test for it. They didn't follow them, you know, 10, 20 years later or whatever. And as far as I can tell of all these, all these studies that like had people do the best possible self thing, none of them actually, like, that wasn't their goal. They didn't follow up and see, like, did you make it come true?

[B]

So who do we need for this, for our big M magic?

[D]

I don't know if I could offer you big M magic, but I can offer you big S science.

[B]

I'll take it.

[D]

I do have some answers for you about that and it's going to come up after the break.

[B]

Welcome back. Today we are manifesting. We are trying to make our dreams come true with our minds. Senior producer Rose Rimler is telling us all about it.

[D]

Hello, Wendy. So, yeah, I wanted to check in about your manifesting experience. You said that you were manifesting sunny days while bike riding or at least no rain. And you sent me some evidence that you were doing your homework.

[B]

That's right. I'm a good student. There is this gray cloud looming. It will not rain. It will not rain. The great cloud that I see before me will dissipate. It will not rain.

[D]

And I, too, been trying to manifest something. A good swim. So I'm imagining that I'm in the water. I'm towards the end of the race. I'm watching everyone on shore cheering. And as I'm swimming, the water is getting shallower and shallower. I'm getting up to the shore, and I get out of the water, and I cross the finish line, and I'm just celebrating with everyone and eating a hot dog, maybe. And then I check the results later, and I'm fifth place. I love it.

[B]

You're like, you can manifest whatever you want. You could have been first place.

[D]

Oh, yeah, right.

[A]

You're right.

[B]

Right.

[D]

Oh, I'm ruining it. I'm sending out my negative vibes, of course.

[B]

And you're thinking, no, no, no, no, no. Manifesting dreams.

[C]

I want to be fifth.

[B]

I don't even need a medal. Oh, Rose. And you call yourself American.

[D]

Remember how. Remember my score on the narcissist test?

[A]

I think.

[D]

So. The idea here behind this, this whole thing is that you're supposed to be putting out positive vibrations into the universe, and then the universe will match your. I've heard it described as, like, turning yourself into an antenna that you, like, tune to what frequency you want the universe to be on. So, like it, only you send those signals.

[B]

Wait, this is how manifestation is supposed to work?

[D]

Yeah. Basically, I'm summarizing a bunch of different schools of thoughts because this whole concept has been around at least a century. And, you know, there was this big book that came out about it a while back, the Secret, if you remember that.

[B]

Yes. Wow.

[D]

But moving away from vibes, the big science question here is, does the act of, like, thinking about manifesting something up, your chances that you'll actually get what you want? And for this, we need Gabriela Etienne. She's a professor of psychology at New York University, and her research is all about how people turn their wishes and fantasies into things that they can actually achieve. So she had this one big experiment where one of the things that they did was they recruited students who were in their last year of grad school and asked them, do you ever have, you know, positive fantasies about your future job once you get out of grad school? And she found that some people just naturally do This a lot. They do this more than other people. And so what's cool about this study is she followed up a couple years later and asked them, basically, like, how is it going with your career? Are you getting a lot of job offers? Are you making a good salary?

[E]

And what we find is that the more positively these university graduates fantasize about their success in work life, the less successful they were two years later.

[B]

The more positively that they fantasized, the less successful they were.

[D]

It basically backfired.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

The more they dreamed about, like, getting a job and having a job that they liked, that paid them well, the less likely they were to have a job to. They had less. They reported having, like, fewer job offers, and they made less money than people who didn't really fantasize about that stuff.

[B]

Wow. Wow. So less job offers, less money. Totally different to those folks on socials we were hearing from before.

[D]

And I found other examples of manifesting backfiring. There was a survey of almost 400 people that found the ones who believed in manifesting the most were more likely to have made risky financial investments. They did stuff like they bought crypto. They believed in some, like, get rich quick stuff. And they were more likely to have declared bankruptcy than other people. Ooh.

[B]

Okay. Yeah.

[D]

Which made me think of all the advice from Manifesting People about how you need to spend so much time, you know, daydreaming and, like, just thinking about all these good things that are gonna come to you. So that sounds actually, like, pretty. Given your results, maybe that's really bad advice.

[E]

It's good advice if you want to just feel good. It makes you feel good. We found that too. But if you really want to go and get your fantasies in reality, then it's bad advice.

[B]

And does Gabrielle know why it backfired?

[D]

Well, what might be going on is that the people who were fantasizing more were putting in less work to actually get what they wanted. Like, Gabriella found that those graduate students that she followed up with two years later, the ones who fantasized a lot, they weren't putting in as many job applications as their peers. And there was a similar study she did about college students fantasizing about getting good grades. And the ones who fantasize the most about their good grades spent less time studying. So Gabriela thinks that this backfiring effect is all about where you put your energy.

[E]

Maybe people don't put so much effort in their realization of the positive fantasies.

[D]

They spend too much time off in La La land. They forget to actually fill too much Time.

[E]

And what we later found in the experiments is that they feel already arrived. They feel already in the positive future. Our mind is very strong. So they feel in the positive future. And if you already feel accomplished, what do you do? You relax.

[D]

Yeah. It's not just that people were less motivated. She's also seen a physiological reaction in people's bodies. So in a study where they had people fantasize while they measured their blood pressure, she found that their blood pressure actually went down while they were fantasizing.

[B]

So her idea is that as you're fantasizing and feeling good and relaxed, you just have less fire in your ass to actually go out and then accomplish these goals. That's how Gabrielle thinks about it.

[D]

Yeah, that's right. And I will say this is different from sort of generally having a positive or optimistic outlook on life. You know, being a person who kind of generally believes that things will go okay for you, things will work out. That's actually associated with good outcomes, even being good for your health. But fantasizing, not so much.

[B]

So then I guess for folks who do have goals and want to achieve them, has science learned a better way to do this? Do we have a science backed way to manifest?

[D]

Yeah, I mean, there's actually a whole branch of psychology that's dedicated to figuring out how to help people set and achieve goals. And we can draw from that.

[A]

Great.

[D]

It turns out a critical thing is not being too Pollyanna about what you want. You actually have to consider the hard stuff or bad stuff that might come up and might get in your way.

[B]

Which is the exact opposite to TikTok. Right. Which is, say, it's just saying, you know, just focus on.

[D]

Just think about what you want. Yeah. And scientists like Gabriela have come up with some, I guess, you know, to compete with our TikTok colleagues out there. We should probably call them hacks.

[B]

Right? Okay. So hack number one, think about your obstacles.

[D]

Yeah. And Gabrielle has tested this by having people pick a goal. Imagine why that goal would be so great, you know, but then also imagine what the obstacles might be to getting there. So, like, add in a splash of realism, and she's found that this approach works better than just focusing on the goal or just focusing on the obstacles. You need to both together.

[E]

Great.

[D]

And she's done experiments where this technique has gotten people to do more exercise, to deal with issues at work, and has even gotten children to do their homework. So that's really something.

[B]

Okay. Okay.

[D]

But if you really want to take it up a notch, you gotta go a little Further, which brings us to hack2use if then statements.

[B]

Mm. I remember these.

[D]

Yeah. From our ADHD episode. So these come up in ADHD coping strategies as well. So the idea is to think up specific obstacles that could come up in, you know, stopping you from getting your goal and think about what you're going to do. If that obstacle comes up and put it in the statement if blank, then why? So if this happens, then I'll do why. For example, there was a study of t girls who wanted to avoid getting pregnant. And the researchers had half the girls do this exercise where they made if then statements about what could go wrong with their birth control. They said stuff like, if I forget to take my pill one day, then I will, you know, use a condom the next time I have sex. Or if my partner doesn't want to use a condom, then I will, I.

[B]

Don'T know, tell them to off.

[D]

Yeah. And researchers followed up with these people a couple years later and found that in the group that made these if then planning statements, there were half as many pregnancies among them compared to a control group.

[B]

Uh huh. Wow.

[C]

Wow.

[D]

A review paper found that overall, people using these two hacks imagining an obstacle to their goal and then coming up with an if then statement for what to do generally works pretty well. The paper found a small to medium effect size for people achieving their goals using these methods.

[B]

A small to medium effect, which in.

[D]

Psychology is not bad.

[B]

I mean, that's true, that's the world. That's the entire field of psychology is based on small to medium effect sizes.

[D]

And actually, Wendy, now I guess I can finally ask you, did you get rained on?

[A]

Nope.

[D]

Oh, forget it. Throw the whole episode out. Manifestation works. Oh my God.

[B]

Sometimes it was. Yeah, it was really quite surprising. I would arrive at my destination and rain would start.

[D]

Well, Wendy, you may very well be a weather witch and I wish that for you. Right. But actually, like, seriously, what do you think explains that?

[B]

Coincidence? Of course.

[D]

Uh huh.

[B]

But you know what? Maybe because I really, really wanted it to happen, I was probably just way more aware of the weather than I normally would. So leading up to the time I would have to go, I wouldn't cheat, I wouldn't look at the radar, but maybe if I'm being really honest with myself, I would think, you know what, I could see some clouds off in the distance, but it's looking pretty good now.

[D]

I'll go now instead of I'll just.

[C]

Leave a little earlier.

[B]

I'll leave.

[D]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. You just became hyper aware of the weather.

[B]

Yeah, I think so.

[D]

Plus, I mean, I think if you were to keep doing this, there might be times when you get like, a little drizzled on and you're like, that doesn't count. Or, yeah, I don't know. You would just notice moving forward, every time that did it did supposedly work, and you might not notice every time it didn't really work. Classic confirmation bias, for sure.

[B]

Of course.

[D]

And also, I think a lot of us have a certain amount of main character syndrome. I'm not accusing you, Wendy, but definitely, definitely not.

[B]

Fifth place, Rose.

[D]

It reminds me, actually of a story that Laura King told me. She's the psychologist that we heard from earlier. It was about something that happened to her when she was in college, and at the time, she was training to be a singer, and she was at a voice lesson one day, and I.

[C]

Was trying to hit this high note and trying to hit this high note, and I could not do it. So at the end of my lesson, like, the last few minutes of my lesson, my teacher said, let's try this one more time. And so he's running up the scale, and he's running up the scale, and I'm trying to hit that note. And when you're trying to hit that really high note, right, you're almost whooping as if you're making a siren sound, right? Like a child. And so I'm making this noise, and suddenly this, you know, I open my mouth as wide as I could and. And I hit the note, and I sustained that note. And I stood there on this stage and this amazing sound is coming out of me. And then the building started to shake, and the floor of the stage is shivering under my feet. And this old building's like snow is falling off the roof in these groomp bloom. And I'm standing there sustaining this note, right? I caused an earthquake, right, in rural Ohio in the middle of January. I'm standing there and I'm thinking, oh, my God, right? Like I caused an earthquake.

[B]

This is incredible.

[C]

I felt like I had discovered my superpower, right? And I was thinking, I'm standing there thinking, I will only use these powers for good. My voice teacher, who was a very, you know, religious slash spiritual man, like, I am not kidding you got down on his knees and started praying at the piano bench.

[D]

Wow. Okay.

[C]

So this became a kind of super meaningful personal touchstone, right? Like, I'll never forget that time I caused an earthquake.

[D]

Of course not.

[C]

And I just shared the story story so many times. And then a few years ago, I thought, did that happen?

[D]

Yeah. You're like, wait, what?

[C]

And so I started looking it up, and it turns out there was an earthquake on this day in January in Ohio at exactly that time. And that's when I started thinking about, oh, my God, like, all over Ohio. So many people caused that earthquake, right? So many. Like someone slammed a door and it started. Someone sneezed really hard. Someone turned on their hair dryer, Right? Yeah. All of us caused that earthquake because that's how human cognitive processes are, Right. Something big happens and we're like, whoa, what did I do?

[D]

Mm.

[B]

Yeah. Okay, so, Rose, your. Your swim, your big swim is in a couple of days, right?

[D]

Yes. So, yeah, I'll call you afterwards. I'll let you know how it went.

[B]

Great. Good luck. Hello?

[D]

Hello, Wendy? It is I. And I have completed my race. I don't know why I said it like that.

[B]

Did you have a good swim?

[D]

Yes, the weather was perfect.

[B]

Well, you're welcome. Did some crowd cheering on the other side?

[D]

Actually, yeah, it did kind of end the way I had envisioned it in my. My goal that I, you know, I was swimming, the water was getting shallower and shallower and people were cheering and like waving me in. And that part came true.

[B]

But the big question, fifth place.

[D]

I got 71st place.

[B]

But you said for your age category.

[C]

Did that change it?

[D]

In my age catego.

[B]

How do you feel it's your first open water swim?

[D]

Yeah. Yeah, I feel good. And I have one more thing to tell you, Wendy.

[B]

Oh, yeah.

[D]

This week there were 32 citations in this episode.

[B]

Oh, great.

[D]

If people want to see them, they should click on the link in our show notes for our transcript. And that's where all the citations are.

[B]

Great.

[C]

Thanks, Reyes.

[D]

Thanks, Wendy.

[B]

This episode was produced by Rose Rimler with help from me, Wendy Zuckerman, Aketti Foster. Keys, Michelle Dang, and Meryl Horne. We're edited by Blythe Terrell. Fact checking by Diane Kelly. Mix and sound design by Bobby Lord. Music written by Emma Munger. So Wiley, Peter Leonard, Bumi Hidaka and Bobby Lord. Thanks to all of the researchers we reached out to for this episode, including Dr. Lucas Dixon. A special thanks to Mark Johnson. Science Versus is a Spotify Studios original. Listen to us for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We are everywhere and if you like what we're doing, give us a five star review. It helps others find the show. If you are listening on Spotify, follow us and tap the bell icon so you get notifications when new episodes come out. I'm Wendy Zuckerman back to you next time.