It’s been a minute since we’ve had Nikolai Yakovenko on the podcast. Yakovenko is a former professional poker player,and was a research scientist at Google, Twitter and Nvidia. With a decade in computer science, Yakovenko has been at the forefront of the large-language-model revolution that has driven to prominence companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind, and an ecosystem that has birthed hundreds of smaller startups. He is also the founder of DeepNewz, an AI-driven news startup.

Razib and Yakovenko have been discussing the Age of AI for about 4 years now, and it’s time for a temperature check. Nearly four years ago, Razib put in a “prompt” that generated the below image:

The same prompt now returns the image at the top of this post. It illustrates the strides that AI has made in the last four years.

On this podcast, Razib and Yakovenko talk about the current top of the line “frontier labs,” OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google’s DeepMind, why xAI has faltered, and the reality that only DeepSeek in China seems up to challenging the American firms. Yakovenko notes that AI’s transformative impact is mostly in the massive capital influx into the sector, as well as becoming a ubiquitous part of the software engineer’s toolkit. They discuss how programming without an AI-assist is now likened to “raw dogging” coding, while artificial superintelligence seems a rather distant prospect. The technology is getting better, but predictions of the doomers seem not to have panned out.

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