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A blackout kept officials quiet as the oil shock hit. Now Fed Chair Jerome Powell returns with new projections — aiming to signal caution without moving rates. The physical oil market is screaming tighter supply while the paper market barely reacts. Plus, Micron’s AI surge keeps equities buoyant.

Today’s recommended read:Inflation expectations flash a warning - but not a long-lasting one, by Mike Dolan

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest.

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