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Hello and welcome to Revolutions Episode 11.18 the Gemini Vids we left off last time in late December 2249 with the assassination of Omar Ali, an assassination which marks the beginning of the end of the agreement of 2248. As I said last time, there was objectively very little mystery surrounding the assassination. The investigation into the murder was wrapped up by January 5, 2250 and concluded that Tao Bautista acted alone, mostly for reasons of personal bitterness. This conclusion did not stop conspiracy theories from swirling, and one thing I don't think I was clear about last week, but which first further fed those conspiracy theories, was that when I said the guard officers with Ali dropped the assassin, I meant that they killed him. He was dead within seconds of getting his shot off. As a rule, the Guard did not keep their neutron gun set to fatal. So the fact that in this case, they clearly were, and Bautista lay dead before anybody could question him only added conspiratorial fuel to the speculative fires. It made everyone just a little more paranoid. Ali's assassination had broad impact on the course of events, in part because it had a narrow personal impact on Mapledore. She and Ali had been friends for a long time. They had come up together as young executives, joined the Society of Martians together, served on the Martian Advisory Council. Together they had stood side by side during the dangerous chaos of the Three Days of Red. And for the last two years, they had worked together to establish an autonomous Martian society while also maintaining order, production and prosperity. And even here now, at his end, they'd been aligned. Dor and Ali shared the belief that Martians abusing Earthlings should be treated just as seriously as Earthlings abusing Martians. That concern for the Earthlings is why Bautista had been denied a spot in the Martian Guard. And it's why Omar Ali was now dead. One thing we all love to do when studying history is. Is to draw invisible lines. To divide up epochs and periods and eras. Before this line, it was like this. After this line, it was like that. We do the same in individual biographies now. These lines don't actually exist. And everything is an unbroken continuum of subtle changes and transformations. But there are still moments that make us say, hmm, before this, it was like this. After this, it was like that. And for Mabel Dorr, Ali's assassination sure looks like one of those moments where we can draw a line. As we talked about last time, challenges to Dorr had been slowly but steadily mounting. And while she had a thicker skin than most, that did not mean she was not human. She was especially sensitive to accusations of being insufficiently committed to Martians and the revolution. She had dedicated her entire life to uplifting the Martian people. For her entire life, she had given it her time, her fortune and her energy. And for her trouble, she was now being accused of betraying the very Martians she'd uplifted. All because radicals were proposing wildly impractical ideas like full independence and abolishing the class system, both of which sounded great in the drink holes, but which in reality would likely cause phosphide production to crash, taking with it the foundation of a functional Martian society. And now her friend, ally and partner in government had been murdered. Why? Because he was a good enough person to care about defending the lives and dignity of Earthlings. Living on Mars. So after his death, we can observe a marked shift in Mabel Dorr's behavior in both her personal life and public appearances. She became increasingly exasperated, testy and resentful. Dorr believed the results of the investigation. She believed Bautista was a disgruntled malcontent who acted alone. But she also believed his head had been filled with ideas propagated by irresponsible radicals who, if not directly complicit, were at least morally complicit in Ali's murder. The growing hostile divide between Dorr and the radical Martian activists widened precipitously in early 2250 over the question of who would succeed Ali as head of the security services. As we've seen time and again during the early days of the Martian revolution, when Mabel Dorr settled on a policy or wanted somebody appointed to a certain position that was good enough for the Martians, she was the one voice they all knew and trusted. But now we are two and a half years into this thing. Other voices now exist down in the warrens, especially Martians were watching, reading and listening to stuff being produced by the Mons Cafe group or being passed around the ranks of the Martian Guard. In these materials, Dor was being portrayed as a hindrance to the revolution, not its highest authority. A lot of the Redcaps remained upset at the dismissal of 22 of their comrades, just because Dhorr and Ali chose to prioritize the needs of whiny Earthlings over noble and patriotic Martians. Graffiti in the corridors and posts on the networks called both of them earthworms, Martians who were traitorous supporters of Omnicorp and the Earthlings, which I gotta say, was a particularly galling charge. To level it, Mabel Dorr, of all people. What all this meant was Dorr's assumption that the Martian assembly would rubber stamp her candidate to succeed. Ali as head of the Martian Guard was about to crash headlong into the reality that she was no longer the voice of the Martian people. Dorr's choice to succeed Ali was a guy called Bob Smith. Bob Smith was an A class Martian who had been along for the ride the whole time, but more as an effective functionary and organizer rather than a public face of the revolution. He'd been serving as Ali's deputy since the three days of Red and was largely responsible for the Guard's structure, chain of command and logistical apparatus, all of which would be kept in place even after. Well, even after what happens next. When Ali was killed, Smith became acting head of the Martian Guard. All Mabel Dorr wanted the Martian assembly to do was turn that status from acting to official. But this time the assembly was not going to rubber stamp her choice. Because on January 10, 2250, Jose Calderon announced that the Martians deserved a commander who would vigorously protect Martians in the Revolution. They deserved better than just a continuation of Omar Ali's misguided policies that handcuffed the Guard and prevented them from cracking down on the enemies of Revolution. So who was the commander the Martians deserved? You guessed it. Jose Calderon. Calderon was not unknown to the Martians. He was an impeccably credentialed veteran of the Revolution. Everybody knew he was dedicated to the Martian people. This had been demonstrated a thousand different ways, publicly and privately, in ways both big and small. His network of supporters had had little trouble pitching their version of Mars for the Martians, which embraced and elevated Martian born Martians, but excluded and denigrated anyone born on Earth. Inside the Martian Guard, support for Calderon was high among the rank and file Guardsmen. But the choice of who would succeed Ali was not up to the Guardsmen alone. In the wake of the three days of Red, the Martian assembly had assumed the power to appoint department heads. This precedent had been set by their acclamation of Dorr as Director of Mars Division, approval of her slate of candidates to run the various departments. This all established that they served in their positions because the assembly had put them there. And so it was the assembly that would now select a new head of the Martian Guard. Now, I know we haven't gotten into the nitty gritty of how the Martian assembly operated, and if you want all the details, I do suggest reading the Martian A Parliamentary History by Kali Urdu, which expertly traces how its various institutional structures and procedures developed. But in short, every Martian could attend sessions of the assembly, either in person or over the networks. And they could vote on any issue that was put before the assembly if they logged in and voted. At first. Attendance and interest were extremely high, especially during the period of the mutual blockade. But since then it had fallen off steeply. By the time of the vote on Ali's successor, it was mostly A's and B's paying attention to the goings on in the Martian Assembly. This is not to deny the existence of politically engaged Ds. Just to say that it had been a while since the raw vote totals that could be mustered from among the D classes had really been tapped. They were about to be tapped. After some debate, the Mons Cafe wing of the Revolution chose to support Calderon. The debate was less about Whether they preferred Calderon to Smith, they did. Calderon was a staunch supporter of true independence, and they shared his concern that Dorr was too wedded to the idea of staying a part of Omnicor. They also shared Calderon's concern that Dorr was probably hindering necessary efforts to root out counter revolutionary threats because she was more concerned about the optics of defending Earthlings than addressing the very real threat of counter revolution. But they also had their own separate grievances with Thor, for example, her opposition to dismantling the class system, an issue which Calderon himself was indifferent to. But his candidacy at least represented a way to challenge Dorr's overall power and authority. So the Mons Cafe group embarked on a campaign on Calderon's behalf to specifically engage and mobilize D Class voters. People like Zhao Lin and Ivana Darby toured the Warrens in a series of public meetings to raise awareness. They also tapped trifectas to support and endorse Calderon, using their moral authority to say, he is the true defender of the revolution. This is also, I should mention, when Kenji Gru started testing his abilities as an affected polemicist and propagandist, but we'll get to him in a bit. In an attempt to turn back the growing momentum for Calderon, Mabel Dore turned her attention to the person whose revolutionary credentials were perhaps more impeccable than anyone's. And she was certainly the most famous of the trifectas. Alexandra Clare Dorr and Claire had developed their own relationship in the post revolutionary days. Dorr had long wanted to win Claire over to the side of supporting a hierarchical meritocracy that would provide stability and prosperity for Mars, but a hierarchy based on merit and accomplishment that would recognize and promote people like Claire herself. Dorr would say, you've done so much more than most. There's nothing wrong with being rewarded accordingly or having Martian society recognize you as superior. Claire, meanwhile, had moved into the Mons Cafe orbit with Zhao Lin, and she tried to turn Dorr in the direction of a more egalitarian, post revolutionary society. She would say all of that so much more that she did. She did to set people free from systems of oppression. Because to her, every Martian mattered. On this issue of Bob Smith vs. Jose Calderon, Dorr did have some reason to believe she could convince Claire to support Smith. Because Claire's egalitarian beliefs extended beyond Calderon's limited focus on Martian born Martians, Claire did not in fact believe that Martians and Earthlings were fundamentally different. Earthlings had been coming to Mars forever, and in her mind they had been subjected to the Same exploitive corporate control that Martians had been subjected to. They had spent years suffering right alongside each other. And besides, how did any Martian come to be a Martian? That's right, their parents or their grandparents or their great grandparents had been born on Earth and moved there. Earthlings and Martians were not two different species. And certainly if the problem before had been Earthlings abusing Martians, this would not be solved by Martians abusing Earthlings. But as much as Dorr hoped, Claire could be persuaded that hope was not enough. Despite her misgivings about Calderon's anti Earthling biases, Claire was also concerned that the counter revolutionary threat was not being taken seriously enough. And she also suspected in her heart that despite Dorr's protestations that she was not opposed to independence, she just didn't think now was the time that Dorr would never actually get there. That she would never say it was the right time. And on top of that, Claire herself felt no small amount of personal betrayal at Dorse response to the Coles chat memo saying dismantling the class system was unthinkable and then lying about it. And so, in the days leading up to the vote, Alexandra Claire released a statement saying that she was voting for Jose Calderon. This statement marked a permanent rift between Dora and Claire that would only be partially repaired at the end of doar's life. On February 19, 2250, the Martian assembly convened to vote. The work of the Mons Cafe group paid off and it was the single best attended session of the Martian assembly since the ratification of the agreement to 2248. By a margin of 54 to 46, Jose Calderon was elected to be the new head of the security services. Although I should say he never referred to himself by that title. He believed the formulation was a relic of Omnicorps corporate structure. He would only ever refer to himself as Commander of the National Guard. Calderones victory dealt a significant reputational blow to Mabel Dorr, as she had openly called for Martians to vote for Bob Smith. Calderon's victory also only further emboldened Dorr's critics. She was no longer the infallible voice of the Martians. With Calderon now commander of the Martian Guard, he quickly established new directives and orders to guide their operations. Protecting the Martian people and defending the revolution would now mean exactly that. The Guards resources would now be put towards rooting out the counter revolutionary conspiracies that threatened them both. He ramped up surveillance of Earthlings on Mars who he naturally believed were at the heart of these conspiracies. And he was not overly concerned about the impact this would have on their lives. And though Bruno October had managed to keep his own identity as leader of the very real counter revolutionary threat hidden, Calderon's blanket surveillance of Earthlings wound up, including October. He was surveilled. And it did actually hinder his ability to organize and direct the reactionary Loyalist movement. This even as the Martian Guard never actually uncovered any evidence implicating Bruno October in any of those activities. But though October himself was never picked up for questioning, plenty of other Earthlings were. And when they were, Calderon and the Redcaps did not pull punches when interrogating them. Literally. Though it was not well understood at the time, we now know that these people were being picked up by the Guard and taken to various stockades, where they were subjected to harsh interrogation techniques that soon crested into outright torture. And they used all the old tricks. Sleep deprivation, sensory overload, solitary confinement, and good old fashioned beatings. Several Earthlings picked up during this period simply disappeared, and they are now presumed to have died in custody. The problem with all of this, beyond just being morally abhorrent, is that, as we've known for centuries, torture does not produce reliable intelligence. It just produces whatever will get the torture to stop. We still have some of the statements and confessions, and they're a mess. The stories are almost universally lies, inventions or fantasies. This led the Guard to expend their resources chasing phantom conspiracies and losing track of the real ones. So, like I said, Calderon's crackdown trying to root out the Loyalist conspiracy did have some real effect. Their organizations and efforts were hindered, but mostly because of the general repressive turn by the Guard, rather than them uncovering specific details of any real plot. And there was a real plot. Mabel Dorr, of course, did not like this repressive turn. And as she had her own aides review the cases, files and confessions produced by the Redcaps, it became clear much of it was completely bogus and not worth taking seriously, let alone acting upon. She, in fact, began to suspect that Calderon was juicing the legitimacy of these plots in order to create more fear and paranoia among the Martians that would feed the larger radical project of Martian independence. So by about April 2250, Dorr had become convinced that if a plot was uncovered by Calderon, then it wasn't actually true. This is the crucial context to understanding how she so badly misjudged the Gemini vids. To tell the story of the Gemini vids, we need to turn our attention back to the spaceshippers who we've neglected a little bit over the past few episodes. Since the advent of the agreement of 2248, the shippers appeared to be set for life. Their pay and privileges were restored. The table of rates was doubled. Shipping back and forth between Earth and Mars had returned to pre revolutionary levels, and for sure, a bunch of them were now totally mollified and showed no further interest in playing at politics. But others were still disquieted, either because they had been radicalized by the experience of the Martian revolution, their own mutiny, and the period of the mutual blockade into wanting to push the political envelope even further, or because all those experiences had confirmed them as dyed in the wool reactionaries who wanted Omnicorp to fully reclaim control of Mars and Phoenix 5. The largest percentage of shippers ready to start pushing the political envelope again were among the civilian cargo shippers. As it turned out, doubling the table of rates sounded great, but it was not all it was cracked up to be, especially when they started to notice that Omnicorp was slowly but methodically increasing prices on various parts and services to practically make the whole thing awash. Agents of Omnicorp's rival corporations found a very receptive audience among the civilian shippers for what they were now proposing that if Mars declared independence and Omnicorp's monopoly was cancelled, then Bicor and TCOR could offer rates that doubled the doubled table of rates basically help us take down Omnicorp and you will be massively rewarded for your efforts. Among the Phosphide container fleet, there were also officers willing to support this project. Though they had been even more comprehensively bought off than the civilians, many still had reason not to fully reconcile themselves to the agreement of 2248. As part of that agreement, Omnicorps had promised not to retaliate against officers and crews who had participated in the mutiny. And while they never did anything dramatic or overt, in the last two and a half years since the agreement had gone into effect, there was a series of promotions, reassignments, and reorganizations that always seemed to affect personnel and ships who'd been involved in the mutiny. Captains were replaced, shuffled around and transferred. They were systematically removed from positions of prestige and authority and then stashed in less influential places. Commander Cartwright and Commander Way, for example, were both promoted under suspicious circumstances. Wei was promoted to a role overseeing logistical planning for orbital platform maintenance. Cartwright was assigned to a desk at Fleet Headquarters that would keep him permanently grounded on Earth. Transfers and reassignments like this became regular and noticeable to those who cared to pay attention. And among those paying attention were officers who had been permanently politicized by the events of 2247. Officers whose ambitions had been raised beyond settling for mere material rewards, and who now wanted to start acting on those ambitions. But there was also, inside the container fleet, officers who had drawn the opposite conclusion. We have our pay and privileges back, and there is frankly no reason to hitch our future prospects to radical Martian pipe dreams. And in fact, they considered those pipe dreams incredibly dangerous. If Mars actually did declare independence, it would be so catastrophically disruptive to the production of phosphide that it could simply not be tolerated. And in fact, even this business of Martian autonomy should probably be rolled back. Their big takeaway from the events of 2247 was that Timothy Werner had been the main problem, and that now that he was gone, things needed to return to normal. Not normal as in the agreement of 2248 and Martian autonomy, but normal as in the full restoration of Omnicor's authority over Mars. And so, just as mutineers were being systematically shifted out of positions of authority, officers identified as being particularly supportive of Omnicorps supremacy were replacing them, almost as if this was by design. And one thing I will mention here before we move on is that while there were all kinds of rationales for why some officers broke one way and others broke another, one thing that should not be discounted were just personal rivalries among the officers themselves. Especially among the senior officers, we find people who would seem to have the same material, social and political interests, but who nonetheless wound up bitterly opposed to each other and on opposite sides of the coming conflict. And for example, three of the most important Revanchist officers, Winifred Loewes, Hiro Satoshi and State Gimlet, their reactionary turns don't necessarily make sense until we go back through their biographies and discover that each of them had developed a personal rivalry with Commander Cartwright. In Satoshi's case, it went all the way back to their time in the academy together, their opposition to the mutiny in 2247 and their desire to restore Omnicorp's control over Mars now was as much about hostility to Cartwright as a person as it was to any of the larger issues at stake, which frankly, is a lot more common in history than you might think. Okay, so with all that in place, we now have to shift down to Earth to establish the details of the real actual plot to recapture Mars that was in fact now being put into motion. Kamal Singh and His allies had been arranging things under the radar for years, including all those promotions, reassignments, and reshufflings in the container fleet. This plot had three components. First, Singh had learned that Omnicorps Systex had discovered an exploitable flaw in the Martian firewall, but no one had acted upon it. Because of the agreement of 2248. Singh planned to act upon it, coinciding with the second component of the plot, an armed insurrection on Mars led by Bruno October to capture control of the Prime Dome. The third component would be a giant hammer that would soon be looming above Mars. Convoy Group 11, presently being prepared for the journey from Earth to Mars, had been methodically stacked with Revanchist officers, not just loyal to Omnicorp, but to Kamal Singh, in gross violation of the agreement of 2248. Their container ships were at that moment being loaded with nuclear devices that could threaten full bombardment of a Martian colony city. The Revanchists were now of the opinion that it was highly likely the Martians would capitulate in the face of the threat of orbital bombardment. And if they did not, it would be better to drop bombs on one of the cities and accept the task of rebuilding as the price of ensuring the entire planet and its Spouse V remained under Omnicorp's control forever. All three of these components were moving into their final places in May of 2250, when an engineer at the Gemini orbital platform named Akina Mirabelli, who had been improperly vetted by the Revanchists and was in fact sympathetic to the Martians, discovered that nuclear devices were being loaded onto the container ships of Convoy Group 11. This was obviously an alarming discovery, and as quick as she could, she took out her hand screen and captured video of these devices being loaded onto one of the ships. The vids she took became known as the Gemini vids. She had to sit on them for a week before she could safely transmit them to a contact she had among the civilian spaceshippers, who then passed it along to a contact in the Martian Guard. By then, convoy group 11 had left Doc and were on their way to Mars. The Gemini vids finally wound up in the hands of Jose Calderon, and he was, of course, even more alarmed than Mirabelli had been. Container ships armed with nuclear devices were now headed for Mars. They had to do something. But what? So he contacted Mabel Dorr, demanded a meeting immediately, and he showed her the vids as soon as he was done. He wanted to know what Dor planned to do about it, but she decided to do nothing. She did not believe what she had seen. Not disbelief as in surprise. Disbelief as in she did not believe the vids were real. She thought they were fakes. It was just another effort to inflame the situation, undermine the agreement of 2248, and get her to do something that would force Mars towards independence. Calderon was furious, but he was caught in a boy who cried wolf scenario where his credibility with Dor was already so wrecked, specifically over the issue of him presenting exaggerated conspiracies to her that turned out not to be true, that he could not convince her the Gemini vids were real. In fact, the first thing Mabeledore did was alert Jin Wong that fake vids purporting to show nuclear devices being loaded onto convoy group 11 were circulating. Wong said, there's no way that happened. I would never approve it. It would wreck everything. And Wong was not lying. Even though she was CEO of Omnicorp, Kamal Singh and the Revanchists had kept her completely in the dark about their activities. That was because there was a fourth component to the Revanchi's plot. The starting pistol for the operation would be calling an emergency meeting of the Board of Directors, voting Wong out and making Kamal Singh the new CEO of Omnicorp. So we will leave it there. With Convoy Group 11 on its way from Earth to Mars, Bruno October's group making final preparations for an armed uprising. When it arrived, the systeqs on Earth ready to initiate their exploits and take control of Martian servers on the other side, Jose Calderon and the Redcaps were extremely agitated and furious. Dorr was going to do nothing about the imminent possibility of all of them being consumed by nuclear fire. With each passing day, as Convoy Group 11 grew closer and closer, tensions on both sides would be cranked to intolerable levels. And these tensions would finally be released in an explosion of chaos and conflict that history now calls the Independence days.