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Dan Nathan is joined by David Rosenberg, president and founder of Rosenberg Research, for a wide-ranging conversation recorded on the final day of Q2. Rosie lays out his out-of-consensus disinflation call, arguing that with productivity now accounting for roughly 90% of US economic growth, the market and the Fed are wrong to be bracing for higher inflation and that a string of surprisingly benign CPI prints could be coming. From there, the two dig into the cracks beneath a record-setting market: a personal savings rate that's collapsed from 8% to 3%, real disposable income running at zero, and a low-end consumer leaning harder on credit cards just to stay afloat — the setup, Rosie warns, for a consumer recession few see coming.

They also tackle the elephant in the market: an AI trade that's broadened from the "Mag 7" into semiconductors, memory, and names like Corning and Cisco, and the financialization underneath it — circular financing arrangements, private credit funds capping redemptions, and accounting quirks that may be flattering S&P earnings more than investors realize. Rosie explains why he's still half in equities (with a heavy tilt toward Asia, bonds, and gold), why "there are no bears left" worries him, and what a 1928 letter from Charles Merrill can teach investors about the cost of being late versus early. Plus: a look ahead to his upcoming book and ETF.

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