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Danny Moses welcomes Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel back to the On The Tape podcast as Q2 earnings begin amid renewed inflation concerns, Middle East tensions, and continued AI-driven equity enthusiasm. They discuss the Fed being “in a box” between cooling inflation, housing softness, and rising government interest costs, and use Kalshi markets to frame views, including expecting no Fed hike before 2027. The conversation shifts to oil staying elevated due to war-driven disruptions, tight refined-product markets, and high crack spreads amid limited U.S. refining capacity, with mentions of core energy holdings. They cover gold’s pullback from 5,500 to around 4,000, the role of central-bank and China buying, and momentum-driven market structure. They debate AI’s CapEx cycle, margin benefits versus later unemployment risks, and then examine midterm election implications and Brazil’s election odds. The episode ends with Open Championship Kalshi picks and a Substack trial offer.

Timecodes

0:00 - Intro

3:00 - The Fed

8:30 - Energy

16:30 - Gold

23:30 - AI & Jobs

31:30 - Elections & National Debt

41:30 - British Open Picks

ABOUT THE SHOW

For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.