Run the Numbers: State of the Private Tech Markets (February 2025)

Podcast: Run the Numbers
Host: CJ Gustafson
Release Date: February 28, 2025

Overview

In this monthly deep dive, host CJ Gustafson presents the “State of the Private Tech Markets,” helping listeners get smart on the latest trends, movers, and shakers in the world of private tech companies. With a focus on valuation shifts, hiring trends, sector deep-dives (HR tech, security, legal tech), major company spotlights, fundraising rounds, and key executive moves, CJ combines sharp data insights with witty commentary and on-the-ground CFO wisdom.

Key Topics and Insights

1. Biggest Valuation Shifts & Most Valuable Companies

• Elon Musk’s Empire: Between SpaceX, xAI, and X, Musk oversees nearly $450B in private company value—a figure larger than the GDPs of South Africa or Finland.
  • “Elon Musk may have heard of him. He’s not just running companies, he’s running a small economy.” (08:00)
• CoreWeave’s Meteoric Rise:
  • Grew from $2B in 2022 to $26B; rumors suggest imminent IPO aiming for $35B and a $4B raise.
  • “They’ll raise enough to build data centers the size of 10 Costco warehouses. A lot of chips. I’m not talking Tostitos.” (09:44)
• Anduril’s Defense Boom:
  • Jumped from $14B to $28B valuation, driven by U.S. government defense spending.
• Anthropic’s Surge:
  • Newly raised funding moves them to $60B, just outside CJ’s tracked Top 5 private companies.

2. Hiring Trends and Layoffs

• Why Headcount Signals Growth: 70%+ of SaaS expenses go to people; hiring/layoff data are gold for reading trends.
  • “If you want a leading indicator of future growth or contraction, look no further than headcount.” (13:12)
• Fastest-Growing Teams:
  • xAI: up 1300% YoY
  • Others: Rider, OpenAI, Thoropic, CoreWeave, Glean (+80% YoY)
  • Cybersecurity: Wiz and Huntress (+70% YoY)
  • Back Office: Ramp and HiBob (+65% YoY)
• Major Reductions:
  • Sysdig reduced, with Bill Welch new CEO.
  • Getter: Once a pandemic darling (valued at $11.8B), now $2.5B, exiting Europe/US.
  • Vice Media: After bankruptcy, now owned by Fortress—uncertain future for its media properties.
    • “If you remember, they filed for Chapter 11… I hope Action Bronson still has a show.” (17:15)

3. Sector Deep-Dives

HR Tech & Finance

• Consolidation Wave:
  • HiBob (HRIS) acquired Mosaic (FP&A): sign HR and finance are merging, with demand for all-in-one compliance/forecasting platforms.
  • “Hiring teams don’t just need payroll anymore. They need forecasting, compliance, financial integrations built in… They want a single source of truth. Just give me the damn data.” (18:44)
  • Trend mirrors traditional ERP evolution (Oracle, ADP, SAP).

Security

• Wiz Ascendant:
  • Outpacing Orca, Lacework, Snyk, closing on $1B revenue (doubled YoY).
  • “What was once a four horse race… is now a Wiz guys, they’re just running away with the show.” (20:15)
  • Lacework acquired by Fortinet after failed Wiz deal.
• Up-and-Coming:
  • Island and Huntress targeting niche markets (enterprise browser security; SMB cybersecurity).

Legal Tech

• Rapid Automation and Growth:
  • Harvey: Fastest ever to $50M ARR, 4x YoY, $3B Series D, 200+ customers in 42 countries.
    • “If you’ve ever watched a lawyer sift through a thousand-page contract with three highlighters and a headache, you understand why Harvey exists.” (23:03)
  • Clio: Dominant in legal workflows, with a focus on integrating into existing customer practices.
  • Ironclad: Bringing AI to contract management—legal among the first white-collar sectors to feel AI’s impact.
    • “If AI is coming for white collar jobs, legal is certainly a perfect first target.” (24:44)

4. Company Spotlights

• Wiz
  • Refused Google’s $23B buyout, aiming to reach $1B ARR and go public.
    • “They slide it back and say, ‘we’re going to get to a billion and IPO.’” (26:09)
  • Could trade above traditional multiples if IPO successful.
• Harvey
  • AI contract review; global client base; $3B valuation post-Series D.
• Deel
  • Global hiring and compliance, $800M revenue, profitable, 70% YoY growth—on track for $1B.
    • “How I describe Deel to friends is: as if Workday and ADP got together and had an international baby.” (29:24)
  • Poised to trade above SaaS and even marketplace multiples at IPO.

5. Notable Fundraises and Executive Moves

• Fundraising Highlights:
  • Anduril: Doubled to $28B.
  • Saronic: $600M for AI-powered marine defense tech.
  • Mercury: $3B valuation, $500M revenue (redefining banking for entrepreneurs).
• Executive Appointments:
  • Fivetran: Suresh Sashadri as CFO.
  • Flock Safety: Brandon Simmons as CFO.
  • Grammarly: Matt Hudson (formerly Coda CFO) takes on CFO role post-acquisition.

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “Elon Musk...running a small economy.” (08:00)
• “A lot of chips. And I ain’t talking Tostitos chips inside those Costco warehouses.” (09:50)
• “If you want a leading indicator of future growth or contraction, look no further than headcount.” (13:12)
• “Hiring teams...don’t want 10 different point solutions in their back office. They want a single source of truth. Just give me the damn data.” (18:44)
• “If you’ve ever watched a lawyer sift through a thousand-page contract...you understand why Harvey exists.” (23:03)
• “How I describe Deel...as if Workday and ADP got together and had an international baby.” (29:24)
• “I think it can make you smarter on the companies who are going to eventually dip their toes into the public markets here.” (38:12)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Most Valuable Private Tech Companies & Valuations: 08:00 - 12:30
• Hiring & Layoff Trends: 13:12 - 17:15
• Sector Deep-dives (HR Tech, Security, Legal Tech): 18:44 - 25:30
• Company Spotlights (Wiz, Harvey, Deel): 26:09 - 31:40
• Fundraising & Executive Moves: 32:10 - 36:12

Conclusion

This episode offers a high-energy, jargon-savvy “backstage pass” to the fastest-evolving corners of the private tech markets. CJ blends finance metrics, market gossip, actionable strategy, and humor—arming startup operators and investors with everything needed to keep a sharp edge for the coming month.