//The Wire//2300Z June 10, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR REIGNITES IN IRAN AS MUTUAL TARGETING CONTINUES AROUND THE REGION. PRESIDENT TRUMP REVEALS ALLEGEDLY SECRET OPERATION IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. RIOTS AND UNREST REMAIN CONSTANT IN NORTHERN IRELAND.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: The war has continued to escalate as all sides remain engaged in active targeting operations throughout the region. After the reported shootdown of the American helicopter, the United States conducted 10-12x strikes throughout Iran in retaliation. Similarly, the Iranians attacked Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain again, striking airfields that are being used by American aircraft to conduct the war. This afternoon President Trump stated that American bombing will continue, and bombing sorties have already resumed with targets reportedly being struck once again throughout Iran.

Northern Ireland: Unrest continued throughout Belfast throughout the night, with most of the more kinetic phases of the evening focusing around arson attacks on migrant housing projects throughout the city. Several dozen different sites and residential structures were burned down, and throughout the afternoon the riots have continued around the city.

Analyst Comment: According to local reports, nobody was killed or stabbed during the night, so as of this morning at least, the "Chicago Way" has not been relied upon for conflict resolution throughout the city just yet. All things considered, the city has probably gotten off lightly so far considering the gravity and circumstances of the case that started all of this. However, as of this report, the second night of rioting has begun, and unrest looks to be in the forecast for the next few days.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Local dissent continues to grow in the wake of the Karmelo Anthony verdict, as Anthony was sentenced to 35 years in prison yesterday afternoon. So far only low-level unrest has been observed, however some BLM protests have remained persistent outside the Collin County courthouse, which have involved assaults and incidents between groups of protesters.

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Analyst Comments: This afternoon, President Trump revealed what is alleged to be a secret campaign to get more oil out of the Persian Gulf. This plan, the exact details of which remain very unclear, allegedly has resulted in hundreds of ships transiting the Strait, along with 100 million barrels of oil since the start of the operation. It's not immediately clear as to if this operation is still ongoing or not, but speculating a bit, this master plan appears to involve the US Navy attempting to conduct a grand shell game using a variety of electronic trickery, so as to sneak some vessels out of the Strait. Once in the Gulf of Oman, Ship-to-Ship transfers of oil are conducted, and the same ships run back through the Strait to pick up another load of oil. This has been suspected for some time as it's not exactly easy to hide a massive tanker vessel.

In President Trump's social media post disclosing the operation, this "200 ship" claim needs more clarification because so far the numbers don't add up. This figure could be a total number of ships and not specifically oil tankers...small regional fishing boats are probably included in this figure. Even so, using his own numbers, the US has allegedly moved 100 million barrels of oil since May, during this secret operation. The average Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) carries about 2 million barrels of crude oil, so this would be equivalent to 50x trips...over a period of at least a month.

Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil transited the Strait every day. Since the war started, this flow has been effectively cut off. The Saudi's have helped supplement the situation with their East-West Petroline system which runs overland, with a capacity of 7 million bbl/d. Similarly, the Emirates have tried sneaking oil out through Omani terminals on the Gulf of Oman side of the Strait (which is why Iran has been striking Oman semi-regularly since the start of the war).

Since deception has been disclosed and confirmed in this case, honesty is not a part of this equation. It is possible that this "secret" operation was more effective than at first glance. However, since it's unwise to tell the world about a secret military operation that is currently ongoing, it's also possible that it was less effective than stated, and thus has been concluded much like Project Freedom initially was. The latter option is the most likely based on the little information that we have, because the claim of 100 million barrels of secret oil only amounts to about five days worth of crude due to the US consuming about 21 million bbl/d in the summertime (from all sources, including domestic production). Credit must be granted where credit is due, and this alleged operation is at least an attempt for the White House to fix the energy crisis that it started, which is a step in the right direction. However in this case the grand question remains as to whether or not it was worth it. Civilian mariners putting their lives at risk while drone boats guide them through a minefield, for so little oil that the world did not even notice...might be a rather suboptimal arrangement on the strategic level.

As a result, if this deception campaign was working to alleviate some pressure on the global oil crisis, nobody seems to have told the Department of Energy because the United States has continued to drain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at record rates. All total, the US has released around 172 million barrels from the SPR since the war began, most of which was sold for export as most US domestic refinement is heavily reliant on crude from the Middle East. If the US did indeed succeed in a total of 100 million barrels exiting the Strait...it did not just disappear, it had to go somewhere and somebody had to account for it over the past few months. Ships carrying oil don't just vanish into thin air, and there is undoubtedly a paper trail leading to the truth. Consequently, it's possible that the truth is being bent quite heavily and the numbers don't add up. Taking all of this at face value however, even with clever tricks, the Saudi's backup pipeline, US refinement booming, and draining our strategic reserves, basic arithmetic indicates that this is not enough to halt the energy crisis from getting more serious with each passing day.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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