//The Wire//2300Z June 18, 2026//
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//BLUF: MOU SIGNED BY IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES TO BEGIN THE PROCESS TO END THE WAR. UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK STRIKES PETROLEUM INFRASTRUCTURE IN MOSCOW.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Last night President Trump and President Pezeshkian signed the Memorandum of Understanding to start the process of ending the war. The agreement was signed early, while President Trump was participating in a state dinner with President Macron in Versailles. Two different physical copies of the document were signed, one in English and one in the Persian language of Farsi.

Analyst Comment: President Pezeshkian also signed the document on camera in Tehran, and provided scans of the document he signed, and so far the terms themselves are identical to what was disclosed by CNN yesterday, or at least they appear to be. The American copy of the deal has not yet been published by the White House.

Strait of Hormuz: This afternoon CENTCOM announced the lifting of the American blockade, and some merchant traffic is moving, with one French LNG tanker, and a few Saudi tankers exiting the Strait overnight. A few dozen other ships have continued to enter/exit the Persian Gulf over the past few days (mostly local or Iranian-aligned traffic), and all shipping has so far used the new Iranian route to the north of the traditional traffic separation scheme.

Russia: Overnight, Ukraine conducted a large scale drone attack on Moscow, targeting petroleum infrastructure. Ukraine conducted the attack with hundreds of long-range drones, with most being intercepted before reaching their targets. However, several drones successfully evaded air defenses, striking the Kapotnya Refinery to the southeast of the city.

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Analyst Comments: The strikes in Moscow are the latest escalation this fighting season, with both sides trading attacks on major cities over the past few months. Russia has been hitting Kiev with hundreds of drones each week, and Ukraine has likewise been targeting Russian oil infrastructure throughout the nation. This is no different than how the war has been fought so far, but at this late hour, the ferocity of the efforts on all sides has become intense. Both sides seek to make as much progress as possible before winter, with the Russians looking to continue their advances on the Eastern Front, while the Ukrainians want to strike deep into Russia to pressure the Russian population and economy. Time will tell how this develops over the next few weeks, but with alleged peace ideations being present on both sides of this conflict, both sides will continue tradition, and try to take ground before approaching the negotiating table once again.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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