Ian Wyatt and John Blank focus on the Fed and lay out their expectations for rate cuts. Without high oil prices, Ian sees 2-3 cuts, but could easily see zero cuts if they do stay high. “This Fed really responds to the labor market,” Ian notes. John emphasizes that the Iranians are “controlling the risk premium” for oil, and they likely want prices to stay high for leverage. John thinks the Fed is “stuck” due to the PCE reports and real funds rates. “All bets are off now,” he adds. They discuss the impact of rates on the housing market and how high oil will keep buyers away from real estate.

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The Case for 2+ Rate Cuts & No Rate Cuts in 2026