Transcript

A (0:00)

Foreign.

B (0:05)

Michael, we're getting ready to start the big interview here, but we have this. We have this segment we do before the big interview called the Hot Question. So here we go. In World War II, the trigger was visible September 1, 1939, and the world had a line you could point to. Today. There are. Excuse me. Today, there may never be a single invasion moment because everything is being weaponized at once. Narratives, markets, technology, supply chains, and domestic division, with psychological warfare coming from outside and from within. Excuse me. So here's the question. Are we watching the modern version of the 1930s where pressure campaigns and propaganda set the conditions until a major war becomes unavoidable? And if so, what are the clearest World War II era parallels you see playing out in real time right now?

A (1:05)

Wow, that's quite the question. I'm actually going to take it back. A war.

B (1:13)

Okay.

A (1:14)

Before World War I, before World War historians would say the world was a tinderbox. It was ready to go, right. And then you had the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. That kind of kicked everything off. Right. Even more than in 1939. 1939, Hitler invaded Poland and people were on edge. But in World War I, even more than that, there was more going on that the whole world was on edge. Right. And ready to go. I frequently, when I'm talking to my wife, I'm saying, you know, the world right now is a tinderbox. Everybody is on the edge of their seat waiting to see what's going to happen. I see massive parallels to before World War I. I think we are more of a tinderbox than we were before World War II. World War II, there was still a possibility for. For diplomacy and some actions that could have been taken that may have forestalled a world war. World War I, everybody was so ready to jump in that it was almost a foregone conclusion. So having said that, yeah, I see a lot of parallels right now. Information is a huge area of warfare. The way information is disseminated, how it's disseminated, who it's disseminated to, is pitting people against each other. In the US I think we are more divided than we've ever been. It's us versus them, and we talk at each other instead of with each other. I think internationally, we are not just us. Everybody is starting to position. And for those of us who are a little bit older and played the game of Risk, where you used to, like, put things on a board and figure out where you're gonna get power and get ready, I'm seeing all of the pieces moving around, and it scares me.

B (3:22)

What exactly are you seeing as far as is pieces moving around in strategic locations? I mean, we've been talking about Greenland, we've been talking about Panama, China, Thailand, Taiwan situation, Russia, Ukraine, now Venezuela, I don't know if that's a strategic location other than oil.

Summary

The Shawn Ryan Show – Episode #227

Guest: Michael Lester

Title: Are We the Bad Guys?
Air Date: February 5, 2026

Overview

This episode features Michael Lester, author of We Are the Bad Guys, a decorated Marine Corps combat pilot, Naval Academy graduate, and veteran who’s spent 20 years investigating America’s role on the world stage. Shawn Ryan and Lester dive into a wide-ranging, candid conversation about American power, empire, disinformation, foreign influence, and the dangers of unchecked narratives. Together, they challenge listeners to question what they think they know, trace historical patterns, and confront uncomfortable truths about U.S. domestic and foreign policy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Modern Parallels to Historical Tipping Points

Are We Repeating the 1930s or 1910s?
- Lester sees more parallels to pre-World War I (“the world was a tinderbox”) than to World War II. The world is, he says, more primed for conflict than during previous “trigger” periods, exacerbated by information warfare and global power posturing.
“I frequently… say the world right now is a tinderbox.” – Lester (01:13)
Information as a Weapon
- The speed, breadth, and unfiltered nature of modern information flow is destabilizing both internationally and domestically. Psychological warfare is now conducted in real time across social and traditional media.
American Division
- U.S. domestic polarization is at an unprecedented level, with rising partisanship traced back to the political strategies of the 1980/90s and now locking the nation in cycles of “undoing” each other’s work rather than building on it.

2. Information Bubbles and the Collapse of Trust

Manipulation, Algorithms & Overload
- The Internet now creates cages of selective information, overwhelming people and pushing them to adopt the opinions of narrower sources or influencers—without real re-evaluation.
- Notable mention of news-aggregator apps (Ground News, Real News No Bullshit) as tools for breaking echo chambers (13:09).
“One of the techniques of keeping people confused is overloading them. They don’t have time…” – Lester (12:34)
Loss of Faith in Institutions
- There is pervasive distrust not only in government but also in law enforcement, healthcare, education, and the very idea of equitable accountability.
“It’s a two-tiered system. But this isn’t a fucking conspiracy anymore, it is a fucking two-tiered system.” – Ryan (31:03)

3. America in the World: Empire, Allies, and Accountability

Uncomfortable History & Narrative Control
- Lester asserts that Americans are often unaware of the full story—like how Hawaii became a state by military force or U.S. involvement in regime change (Panama, Nicaragua, Iran-Contra).
“We forced [Hawaii] pretty much at gunpoint to become a state.” – Lester (64:19)
Are We the Bad Guys? The Empire Thesis
- The U.S. acts as an empire in economic, military, and covert ways, often to the detriment of other nations. Lester and Ryan detail examples from Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Panama, and more.
“If you study every empire… they all end, and they all end badly because they start believing their own lies...” – Lester (33:11)
Lack of Genuine Allies
- Lester and Ryan argue that the U.S. has “associates and allies of convenience,” not real friends who would stand by us in hardship, and posit that this is now global norm for most countries (43:53).
Israel, AIPAC & Foreign Influence
- The conversation ventures deep into the influence of foreign lobbies—especially Israel/AIPAC—on U.S. politics, campaign financing, and foreign policy, detailing how America often acts in “another country’s interest” (116:04).
- A frank discussion about the lack of transparency, the legacy of the creation of Israel, and how political conversations on this topic are often shut down as antisemitism.
“Whoever controls the present controls the past… whoever controls the past controls the future…” – (64:19, paraphrasing Orwell)

4. Systemic Flaws in U.S. Government

Entrenched Corruption & Political Decay
- Both speakers lament the descent from public service to public mastery, with re-election and campaign donations (particularly post–Citizens United) as central motivators, not public good.
- Congress is compared to a business whose leaders never face consequences or accountability—leading to continuous waste, fraud, abuse, and stagnation.
Short-termism & Infrastructure Neglect
- While the U.S. spends trillions on military expansion (including, humorously, the so-called “Trump-class” battleship), infrastructure at home—bridges, power grid, social services—crumbles.
“We spend more on our military than the next 10 countries combined.” – Lester (108:25)
Lack of Sovereign Democracy
- Money dominates elections (statistically, the highest spender wins 94% of the time); education and campaign finance reform are cited as necessary but probably impossible fixes under the current system.

5. Where Does This Go? Collapse, De-escalation, or Change

World War III: Kinetic or Not?
- Both men predict that upcoming world conflict, if any, will be largely non-kinetic—cyberwar, economic disruption, regime change from within (via division)—rather than tanks and bombs.
- U.S. adversaries may only need to fuel America’s own divisions.
“If they can get that to happen, we will… become the most dangerous country in the world. Nobody’s coming in here…” – Ryan (26:00)
Collapse of Empire Parallels
- Historical comparison to the fall of Rome, Great Britain’s colonies, and other empires, drawing ominous parallels to America's trajectory.
Can the System Change?
- While both agree that bottom-up change is critical, Lester is not optimistic that the people or system will adapt willingly. Change is more often forced on empires from outside or through crisis.

6. AI, Information, and the Future

Danger of AI as Information Gatekeeper
- The rise of AI will exacerbate the problem of information control, as whoever “owns the AI” determines the “truth” the AI produces (206:11).
- Lester shares tips for cross-examining AI answers and warns not to trust any single source, digital or otherwise.

7. Call to Action

Radical Skepticism & Self-Inquiry
- Both urge the audience to question everything, research independently, and not accept comfortable narratives at face value.
“If you love somebody and they’re doing something destructive… you confront them and say, ‘Hey, I’ve noticed this happening, and you need to start noticing it, too.’ That’s what this book is about.” – Lester (97:12)
The Goal: Informed, Courageous Conversation
- Lester frames his book not as anti-American, but as a “love letter”—an act of tough love, to challenge the U.S. to self-correct before crisis imposes change from without.

Notable Quotes & Moments

Deepest Insights

“Are we the bad guys? Are we always the bad guys? Don’t you have anything good to say? …You’ve already been told over and over you’re the good guy… Maybe somebody should go, ‘You know, not always.’ Let’s look at what we’re doing.”
— Lester (175:01)
“We have this American exceptionalism where we are the best, okay? And we are, we’re a great country, but we shouldn’t be afraid to go out in our own cities.”
— Lester (28:11)
“You shouldn’t be afraid to speak the truth. If you’re afraid to speak the truth, you’ve already lost.”
— Lester (130:33)

Memorable Exchanges

On the lack of allies:
Ryan: “Do you think we have any real allies in the world?”
Lester: “No, I think we have associates and I think we have allies of convenience…” (42:52)
On cycles of political warfare:
Lester: “Every four years, we try and undo what they did. Right. And you can’t do that and move forward. …How would a business do that?” (09:47)

Critical Timestamps

Historical Parallels & Information Warfare – 01:00–07:00
Division, Trust, and American Decay – 07:00–13:00
Foreign Influence, Israel & AIPAC – 112:41–123:12
Are Regime Changes Ever a Success? – 186:01
What Can Be Done? (Discussion on Solutions, Reform, and Skepticism) – 159:46–171:03, 265:17

Suggested Timestamps for Revisits

01:05–07:00: Framing the global situation as a “tinderbox”
12:15–14:14: On the impossibility of perfect information, information overload, and the “Ground News” tool
23:30–26:17: On domestic fragility, risk of civil war, and regime change from within
97:12–100:41: Lester’s wife calls the book a “love letter to America”; why telling hard truths is an act of hope
116:03–123:12: In-depth, unfiltered discussion of AIPAC, Israel, and American foreign policy
186:01–189:07: Regime change and the historic record of U.S. interventions’ failure
206:11–207:46: How to interrogate AI for true answers
265:17–266:32: Words of encouragement and the final call to always question everything

Tone & Style

Tone: Direct, candid, skeptical, and fiercely independent. Both host and guest are unapologetic in confronting taboo topics, but with a deep undercurrent of concern and patriotism.
Language: Conversational, gritty, sometimes explicit—but always rooted in lived experience and historical context. Clear calls for critical thinking over comfort, and learning over validation.

Final Word

Michael Lester and Shawn Ryan deliver a sobering, essential episode for anyone aiming to understand not just geopolitics but the deeper currents undermining American democracy and identity. This is not simply a critique, but a challenge—a call to abandon information bubbles, confront inconvenient history, and reclaim agency in a world increasingly defined by manipulation and division.

“Education is the best thing you can do for yourself, your kids, and everything else. You’ve got to know what’s going on. It’s not too late. We can make things better. The only thing we’re missing… is the gumption to go do that.”
— Lester (265:17)

For further information
We Are the Bad Guys is available on Amazon; Lester welcomes honest reviews and open debate.

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#227 Michael Lester - Are We the Bad Guys?