The Shawn Ryan Show | Episode #267: Rob Luna – 50-Year Mortgages, Government Band-Aids, AI Job Cuts and the Middle Class

Date: January 1, 2026
Host: Shawn Ryan
Guest: Rob Luna – CEO of Valtrion Wealth Management, renowned wealth strategist, former investment advisor, author of Wealth Academy.

Episode Overview

This robust new year’s episode brings financial strategist Rob Luna back to the Shawn Ryan Show for a wide-ranging, candid discussion about the shifting economic landscape of 2026. The conversation covers pressing topics such as 50-year mortgages, government "band-aid" policies, AI-driven workforce changes, threats to the American Dream and middle class, modern tax planning, real estate trends, and investing strategies for uncertain times.

With a focus on practical insights and no-nonsense takes, the episode provides both urgency and hope for business owners, entrepreneurs, and everyday Americans navigating a rapidly evolving financial world.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Valtrion Wealth Management’s Approach and Business Owner Pain Points

[00:52–07:54]

• Integrated Financial Planning: Rob Luna describes Valtrion’s unique model—all-in-one tax planning, wealth strategy, and business integration, emphasizing how real results stem from proactive, year-round collaboration between financial professionals and clients.

• Entrepreneurial Hurdles: Shawn Ryan shares candidly about his own struggles as a business owner with little formal business education, particularly with taxes and financial planning:

  “One of my biggest hiccups, man, was fucking taxes... I totally winged it all the way up until this point.” — Shawn Ryan [04:02]

• Building for Entrepreneurs, by Entrepreneurs: Luna stresses he built Valtrion by learning from his own expensive mistakes selling his prior firm and experiencing firsthand the shortcomings of traditional CPAs:

  “The business I’m building today… I am the target customer.” — Rob Luna [06:05]

2. The American Dream: Alive or Under Threat?

[07:55–15:17]

• Mindset Crisis, Not Opportunity Crisis: Luna and Ryan debate whether the American Dream is “drying up.” Luna says the dream is being undermined not by economics but by mentality, complacency, and endless government band-aids:

  “The American dream is people and intuition and motivation and understanding that you are responsible for yourself. The further you take that away… that’s going to deteriorate.” — Rob Luna [11:07]

• Adapting to New Realities: Ryan defends the dream with stories of immigrants and blue-collar entrepreneurs still finding success (“getting his fucking hands dirty”), but both agree adaptation and grit—not entitlement—are essential in today's America.

  “You have to be able to adapt and overcome… You hit a roadblock and...you’re like, ‘See? Fuck. Tried to do it, can’t do it, we’re done, I’m fucked.’ No, dude, you’re not fucked. Now you need to go find another way out.” — Shawn Ryan [20:08]

3. The 50-Year Mortgage: Solution or Trap?

[15:17–23:23]

• Shawn’s Take: Sees the 50-year mortgage as a workaround for high home prices and interest rates—lower payments, but few hold a home long-term anyway.

• Rob’s Analysis: Critiques it as another financial “band-aid,” not a real solution:

  • Payment falls only slightly versus a 30-year mortgage (at $500k, $3,000→$2,650 monthly, just $350 difference) [18:39]
  • Little equity is built in the first 15 years, and it dramatically increases the amount paid in interest.
  • Advocates for making better choices and hustling for the extra income needed, rather than stretching the system.

  “Why don’t we just say man up and get an extra $350 a month, figure out how to get that done...This whole narrative of everything’s unattainable and unaffordable is not true.” — Rob Luna [21:04]

  • Conclusion: Both agree: the 50-year mortgage is a bad idea, a sign of treating symptoms not causes.

4. Tariffs, Supply Chains, and U.S. Manufacturing

[23:23–27:18]

• Tariff Impacts: Luna, a self-avowed free market capitalist, details how recent tariffs, while disruptive, forced business owners to diversify supply chains and reduce U.S. reliance on China, ultimately proving beneficial for long-term resilience.

  “As someone who spent time in China… you need to take a hard line or they are going to take advantage of you, steal your intellectual property. They are playing the long, long, long game.” — Rob Luna [26:08]

• Resurgence of Domestic Manufacturing: Tariffs exposed vulnerabilities and are leading to investment in U.S.-based jobs (e.g., semiconductor plants in AZ).

5. New Government Programs: Child Savings Plan

[29:22–31:47]

• $1000 for Newborns: Babies born in 2025 get $1,000 in a tax-free account, investable for long-term growth. With compounding and additional contributions, this could reach close to $1M by age 25 if regularly funded and well-invested.

  “One of the secrets to investing is the earlier you start...That’s $1,000 more than most parents are putting away for their kids right now.” — Rob Luna [29:38]

• Rob’s Stance: Prefers this over other forms of “handouts” as it directs taxpayer money toward genuine long-term benefits.

6. Artificial Intelligence: ‘Dog Years’ for Business, Middle-Class Threats

[31:54–41:45]

• AI’s Tidal Wave: AI isn’t a future threat—it’s already eliminating roles and flattening organizations. Luna’s firm actively advises on using AI to “cut dead weight” and leverage a small team of high performers with AI tools.

• Mindset and Skills: Survival means adopting an entrepreneurial mindset, continuous learning, and becoming an irreplaceable value-add—not just a “9-to-5 dot the I, cross the T” worker.

  “If you’re a liability, AI is going to wipe you out.” — Rob Luna [36:32]

• Middle-Class Squeeze: Traditional safety nets (pensions, stable mid-level jobs) are gone. The middle class faces a reckoning—either adapt or risk irrelevance.

• Societal Risk: If AI-driven productivity only benefits the few, and masses become jobless, “who will buy your product?” Discusses potential for escalating government dependence and a shift toward socialism as a stopgap, which Luna argues will further erode the American Dream.

  “The answer is...the people who can afford it, which is going to be a smaller subset...that’s kind of what our country could become.” — Rob Luna [39:32]

7. Sectors and Strategies for Entrepreneurs & Investors

[54:13–55:50]

• Go Upmarket and Add Value: Focus business on time-starved, affluent clients—services they’ll pay a premium for (e.g., financial services, pet care, trades).

• Trades and Services Remain Gold: Many millionaires and even billionaires have foundations in plumbing, landscaping, pest control—traditional businesses run at scale with modern tech/processes.

  “Pick anything...but it goes back to, are you willing to do the work, show up, take the risk?” — Rob Luna [55:38]

8. Managing and Incentivizing Teams in the New Era

[56:02–68:54]

• Motivating and Retaining Top Performers: Luna details how “average” employees need to go; only all-star, entrepreneurial-minded people should stay.

  • Introduce clear KPIs, tie compensation directly to contribution and team performance.
  • Emphasizes transparency, fair rewards and a culture where everyone understands their impact on the mission.

  “How do you incentivize average people? You don’t. You fire average people. You hire exceptional people.” — Rob Luna [60:22]

9. Gold, Silver, and Diversification in an Uncertain World

[73:24–78:51]

• Precious Metals Defy Inflation: Gold at $4,200/oz, silver at $60+ due to industrial and inflation hedging demand (and AI-driven industrial demand for silver).
• Luna’s Take: Everyone should have 5–10% of their portfolio in physical gold/silver. He cautions against going “all in” at current highs but sees long-term value, especially as a time-tested hedge vs. crypto.

10. Cryptocurrency and Reserve Currencies

[78:51–88:07]

• Not a Fan of Crypto: Luna maintains zero position in crypto. Sees no intrinsic value, extreme volatility, and now disdains “crypto cult” logic.

• Systemic Risk: Warns if crypto ETFs get over-leveraged by major banks/asset managers, it could create future financial crises.

• Dollar’s Staying Power: Despite BRICS efforts, the U.S. dollar remains robust as the world’s reserve currency. Proponents of alternative currencies/collapse scenarios have predicted the dollar’s fall before but have been wrong every time.

  “Every time there’s been a dip, it’s been a buying opportunity...not 99%, not 98%—for 100 years.” — Rob Luna [87:05 on S&P 500]

11. Real Estate: The Great Divide

[88:07–93:22]

• Market by Market: Real estate fortunes have dramatically split—exodus from California, New York, Oregon; booms in Tennessee, Texas, and tax-free states.

• Follow the Catalysts: Migration, business relocations, and safety are the real drivers of value (not climate/tax alone).

• Values Matter: Increasingly, high-value individuals are seeking communities with strong traditional/family values and sense of safety.

  “It’s a luxury to live here now...that’s worth overpaying for.” — Rob Luna [92:07]

12. Taxes, New Incentives & Smart Structuring

[100:48–113:03]

• Real Estate Tax Breaks: 100% bonus depreciation restored, Opportunity Zones back (roll over capital gains into distressed zones, hold 10 yrs → no tax).

• Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS): Start and hold C-corp for five years—first $10–15M in capital gains tax-free upon sale [109:05].

• R&D Credits: Employers can offset taxes directly by optimizing for research/development tax credits, particularly as AI drives new business processes.

• Key Message: Knowledge is the separator. Most Americans simply don’t know about or properly leverage the advantageous sections of the tax code.

  “The difference between people who are poor and people who are wealthy isn’t because they’re doing anything that much different. It’s because they have knowledge.” — Rob Luna [112:20]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Nothing’s fucking going to be handed to you. You gotta work your ass off. The environment’s always going to be changing. You have to pivot and adapt… It’s never comfortable. It’s never going to be easy.” — Rob Luna [42:23]

• “You can still make it happen.” — Shawn Ryan [100:38]

• “The vast majority of Americans are just getting soft and lazy and they don’t want to take the hard medicine, they don’t want to work. And I’ve got a problem with that.” — Rob Luna [99:12]

• “If you want things in life, you have to give other things away.” — Rob Luna [127:00]

• “You gotta figure it out. Find another way. Quit putting all your faith in a…political prostitute and make shit happen for yourself.” — Shawn Ryan [98:44]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Integrated Financial Planning and Pain Points: 00:52–07:54
• Is the American Dream Dead?: 07:55–15:17
• The 50-Year Mortgage Discussion: 15:17–23:23
• Tariffs and Supply Chains: 23:23–27:18
• Child Savings Plan: 29:22–31:47
• AI, Middle Class, and the Future of Work: 31:54–41:45
• Business Sectors & Modern Entrepreneurship: 54:13–55:50
• Hiring, Motivating, Retaining Talent: 56:02–68:54
• Gold, Silver & Diversification: 73:24–78:51
• Crypto, BRICS, Reserve Currencies: 78:51–88:07
• Real Estate Market Deep Dive: 88:07–93:22
• Taxes, Incentives & Structuring: 100:48–113:03

Episode’s Tone & Conclusion

The episode is candid, sometimes bluntly critical, but relentlessly practical and determined. Luna’s message boils down to adaptation: the world will not slow down, and for those prepared to work, learn, and adjust, opportunity still abounds. But for the average, the entitled, or the complacent, the risks—financial, professional, and civic—have never been higher.

Final takeaway: The American Dream isn’t dead, but it is demanding again. Those willing to hustle, learn, and outwork the average have more tools and strategies available than ever. But there are no shortcuts, no permanent political solutions, and certainly no handouts that will substitute for personal responsibility and grit.